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Abstract Mercury (Hg) is a naturally occurring element in the Earth's crust. It can be harmful to human health when released in large quantities and/or converted to the neurotoxicant methyl mercury in aquatic ecosystems. This study analyzes global and regional trends in anthropogenic Hg releases to the atmosphere between 2010 and 2015, as well as the associated trends in modeled and measured Hg concentrations at sites around the world. In general, we find that global Hg emissions and concentrations have grown slightly in this period, as declines from the phase-out of commercial Hg use in the developed world have been more than matched by increases in Hg-related activities in the industrializing countries of the world. We estimate that global Hg emissions between 2010 and 2015 have grown at a rate of 1.8%/yr, from 2188 Mg (+44%/-20%, 80% C.I.) in 2010 to 2390 Mg (+42%/-19%, 80% C.I.) in 2015. Regionally, emissions declined over this period in the U.S. (−10%), OECD Europe (−5.8%), and Canada (−3.2%), while they increased in Central America (+5.4%), South Asia (+4.6%), and Eastern Africa (+4.0%). East Asia remained the largest emitting region at 1012 Mg in 2015, though growth there has slowed significantly in recent years. The production of Hg (+7.9%), caustic soda (+6.3%), and cement (+6.3%) showed the highest increases by source type, though artisanal and small-scale gold mining (ASGM) was the single largest source of emissions in 2015 (775 Mg). The commercial use of Hg in dental applications (−5.6%) and electrical equipment (−5.2%) continued to decline. These emission trends show a continuation of the regional and sectoral shifts that began in the 1970s, but with a resulting reversal in global trends, because the benefits from Hg phase-out in North America and Europe have been largely realized and industrial growth in developing countries has begun to dominate. The emission trends are in agreement with trends in modeled and measured concentrations, which show small declines in surface air total gaseous Hg concentrations in eastern North America and Western Europe between 2010 and 2015, but slight increases for much of the rest of the world, driven by the continued increases in emissions from Asia and from ASGM. Our results suggest that reductions of Hg in the North Atlantic region have been largely successful, and focus now needs to shift to Asia and to the continued practice of ASGM worldwide. Graphical abstract Image 1 Highlights • Global trends in mercury emissions and concentrations are estimated for 2010–2015. • Declines since the 1970s in North America and Europe are now leveling out. • Emissions continue to grow in Asia, Africa, and other industrializing regions. • As a result, global emissions have grown slightly (1.8%/yr) during this period. • Mercury use, coal combustion, and small-scale gold mining need further controls. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Coal combustion is one of the largest contemporary sources of anthropogenic mercury (Hg). It releases geologically sequestered Hg to the atmosphere, and fly ash can contaminate terrestrial and aquatic systems. We estimate that coal combustion has released a cumulative total of 38.0 (14.8–98.9, 80% C.I.) Gg (gigagrams, 10 9 g or thousand tonnes) of Hg to air, land, and water up to the year 2010, most of which (97%) has occurred since 1850. The rate of release has grown by two orders of magnitude from 0.01 Gg yr − 1 in 1850 to 1 Gg yr − 1 in 2010. Geographically, Asia and Europe each account for 32% of cumulative releases and an additional 18% is from North America. About 26.3 (10.2–68.3) Gg, 71% of the total, were directly emitted to the atmosphere, mostly from the industrial (45%) and power generation (36%) sectors, while the remainder was disposed of to land and water bodies. While Europe and North America were the major contributing regions until 1950, Asia has surpassed both in recent decades. By 2010, Asia was responsible for 69% of the total releases of Hg from coal combustion to the environment. Control technologies installed on major emitting sources capture mainly particulate and divalent Hg, and therefore the fraction of elemental Hg in emissions from coal combustion has increased over time from 0.46 in 1850 to 0.61 in 2010. About 11.8 (4.6–30.6) Gg of Hg, 31% of the total, have been transferred to land and water bodies through the disposal or utilization of Hg-containing combustion waste and collected fly ash/FGD waste; approximately 8.8 Gg of this Hg have simply been discarded to waste piles or ash ponds or rivers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We estimate that a cumulative total of 1540 (1060-2800) Gg (gigagrams, 109 grams or thousand tonnes) of mercury (Hg) have been released by human activities up to 2010, 73% of which was released after 1850. Of this liberated Hg, 470 Gg were emitted directly into the atmosphere, and 74% of the air emissions were elemental Hg. Cumulatively, about 1070 Gg were released to land and water bodies. Though annual releases of Hg have been relatively stable since 1880 at 8 ± 2 Gg, except for wartime, the distributions of those releases among source types, world regions, and environmental media have changed dramatically. Production of Hg accounts for 27% of cumulative Hg releases to the environment, followed by silver production (24%) and chemicals manufacturing (12%). North America (30%), Europe (27%), and Asia (16%) have experienced the largest releases. Biogeochemical modeling shows a 3.2-fold increase in the atmospheric burden relative to 1850 and a contemporary atmospheric reservoir of 4.57 Gg, both of which agree well with observational constraints. We find that approximately 40% (390 Gg) of the Hg discarded to land and water must be sequestered at contaminated sites to maintain consistency with recent declines in atmospheric Hg concentrations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Organic aerosols (OAs) in the atmosphere affect Earth's energy budget by not only scattering but also absorbing solar radiation due to the presence of the so-called "brown carbon" (BrC) component. However, the absorptivities of OAs are not represented or are poorly represented in current climate and chemical transport models. In this study, we provide a method to constrain the BrC absorptivity at the emission inventory level using recent laboratory and field observations. We review available measurements of the light-absorbing primary OA (POA), and quantify the wavelength-dependent imaginary refractive indices (kOA, the fundamental optical parameter determining the particle's absorptivity) and their uncertainties for the bulk POA emitted from biomass/biofuel, lignite, propane, and oil combustion sources. In particular, we parametrize the kOA of biomass/biofuel combustion sources as a function of the black carbon (BC)-to-OA ratio, indicating that the absorptive properties of POA depend strongly on burning conditions. The derived fuel-type-based kOA profiles are incorporated into a global carbonaceous aerosol emission inventory, and the integrated kOA values of sectoral and total POA emissions are presented. Results of a simple radiative transfer model show that the POA absorptivity warms the atmosphere significantly and leads to ∼27% reduction in the amount of the net global average POA cooling compared to results from the nonabsorbing assumption. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Due to the rapid growth of electricity demand and the absence of regulations, sulfur dioxide (SO2) emissions from coal-fired power plants in India have increased notably in the past decade. In this study, we present the first interannual comparison of SO2 emissions and the satellite SO2 observations from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) for Indian coal-fired power plants during the OMI era of 2005-2012. A detailed unit-based inventory is developed for the Indian coal-fired power sector, and results show that its SO2 emissions increased dramatically by 71% during 2005-2012. Using the oversampling technique, yearly high-resolution OMI maps for the whole domain of India are created, and they reveal a continuous increase in SO2 columns over India. Power plant regions with annual SO2 emissions greater than 50 Gg year-1 produce statistically significant OMI signals, and a high correlation (R = 0.93) is round between SO2 emissions and OMl-observed SO2 burdens. Contrary to the decreasing trend ot national mean SO2 concentrations reported by the Indian Government, both the total OMI-observed SO2 and annual average SO2 concentrations in coal-fired power plant regions increased by >60% during 2005-2012, implying the air quality monitoring network needs to be optimized to reflect the true SO2 situation in India. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Since the mid-1990s a new generation of Earth-observing satellites has been able to detect tropospheric air pollution at increasingly high spatial and temporal resolution. Most primary emitted species can be measured by one or more of the instruments. This review article addresses the question of how well we can relate the satellite measurements to quantification of primary emissions and what advances are needed to improve the usability of the measurements by U.S. air quality managers. Built on a comprehensive literature review and comprising input by both satellite experts and emission inventory specialists, the review identifies several targets that seem promising: large point sources of NO x and SO2, species that are difficult to measure by other means (NH3 and CH4, for example), area sources that cannot easily be quantified by traditional bottom-up methods (such as unconventional oil and gas extraction, shipping, biomass burning, and biogenic sources), and the temporal variation of emissions (seasonal, diurnal, episodic). Techniques that enhance the usefulness of current retrievals (data assimilation, oversampling, multi-species retrievals, improved vertical profiles, etc.) are discussed. Finally, we point out the value of having new geostationary satellites like GEO-CAPE and TEMPO over North America that could provide measurements at high spatial (few km) and temporal (hourly) resolution. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Driven by rapid economic development and growing electricity demand, NOx emissions (E) from the power sector in India have increased dramatically since the mid-1990s. In this study, we present the NOx emissions from Indian public thermal power plants for the period 1996-2010 using a unit-based methodology and compare the emission estimates with the satellite observations of NO2 tropospheric vertical column densities (TVCDs) from four spaceborne instruments: GOME, SCIAMACHY, OMI, and GOME-2. Results show that NOx emissions from Indian power plants increased by at least 70% during 1996-2010. Coal-fired power plants, NOx emissions from which are not regulated in India, contribute ∼96% to the total power sector emissions, followed by gas-fired (∼4%) and oil-fired (<1%) ones. A number of isolated NO2 hot spots are observed over the power plant areas, and good agreement between NO2 TVCDs and NOx emissions is found for areas dominated by power plant emissions. Average NO2 TVCDs over power plant areas were continuously increasing during the study period. We find that the ratio of ΔE/E to ΔTVCD/TVCD changed from greater than one to less than one around 2005-2008, implying that a transition of the overall NOx chemistry occurred over the power plant areas, which may cause significant impact on the atmospheric environment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding the biogeochemical cycling of mercury is critical for explaining the presence of mercury in remote regions of the world, such as the Arctic and the Himalayas, as well as local concentrations. While we have good knowledge of present-day fluxes of mercury to the atmosphere, we have little knowledge of what emission levels were like in the past. Here we develop a trend of anthropogenic emissions of mercury to the atmosphere from 1850 to 2008-for which relatively complete data are available-and supplement that trend with an estimate of anthropogenic emissions prior to 1850. Global mercury emissions peaked in 1890 at 2600 Mg yr-1, fell to 700-800 Mg yr-1 in the interwar years, then rose steadily after 1950 to present-day levels of 2000 Mg yr-1. Our estimate for total mercury emissions from human activities over all time is 350 Gg, of which 39% was emitted before 1850 and 61% after 1850. Using an eight-compartment global box-model of mercury biogeochemical cycling, we show that these emission trends successfully reproduce present-day atmospheric enrichment in mercury. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global Hg emissions are presented for the year 2050 under a variety of assumptions about socioeconomic and technology development We find it likely that Hg emissions will increase in the future. The range of 2050 global Hg emissions is projected to be 2390-4860 Mg, compared to 2006 levels of 2480 Mg, reflecting a change of -4% to +96%. The main driving force for increased emissions is the expansion of coal-fired electricity generation in the developing world, particularly Asia. Our ability to arrest the growth in Hg emissions is limited by the relatively low Hg removal efficiency of the current generation of emission control technologies for coal-fired power plants (flue- gas desulfurization). Large-scale deployment of advanced Hg sorbent technologies, such as Activated Carbon Injection, offers the promise of towering the 2050 emissions range to 1670-3480 Mg, but these technologies are not yet in commercial use. The share of elemental Hg in total emissions will decline from today's levels of ~65% to ~50-55% by 2050, while the share of divalent Hg will increase. This signals a shift from long-range transport of elemental Hg to local deposition of Hg compounds-though emissions of both species could increase under the worst case. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines Beijing air quality in the winter and summer of 2001 using an integrated air quality modeling system (Fifth Generation Mesoscale Meteorological Model [MM5]/Community Multiscale Air Quality [CMAQ]) in nested mode. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Transport and Chemical Evolution over the Pacific (TRACE-P) emission inventory is used in the 36- (East Asia), 12- (East China), and 4-km (greater Beijing area) domains. Furthermore, we develop a local Beijing emission inventory that is used in the 4-km domain. We also construct a corroborated mapping of chemical species between the TRACE-P inventory and the Carbon Bond IV (CB-IV) chemical mechanism before the integrated modeling system is applied to study ozone (O3) and particulate matter (PM) in Beijing. Meteorological data for the integrated modeling runs are extracted from MM5. Model results show O3 hourly concentrations in the range of 80-159 parts per billion (ppb) during summer in the urban areas and up to 189 ppb downwind of the city. High fine PM (PM2.5) concentrations (monthly average of 75 μg · m-3 in summer and 150 μg · m-3 in winter) are simulated over the metropolitan and downwind areas with significant secondary constituents. A comparison against available O3 and PM measurement data in Beijing is described. We recommend refinements to the developed local Beijing emission inventory to improve the simulation of Beijing's air quality. The 4-km modeling configuration is also recommended for the development of air pollution control strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

For the model intercomparison study, MICS Asia phase II, standard air pollutants emission data are provided from published research results (the TRACE-P data set) and other recent work. To provide preliminary information concerning the reliability of the standard emissions data, this inventory was compared with a local emission inventory, EAGrid2000-Japan, which has been developed for detailed analyses with fine grid data resolution for the Japan region. Although these inventories are based upon different estimation methodologies, from the comparative analyses it was found that regional emissions of the standard data are consistent, with differences smaller than 10% for SO2, NO x , NMVOC and CO2, and smaller than 30% for CO and NH3. Differences for all species are smaller than the 95% confidence intervals that were estimated in the research that produced the standard emissions data. Additional information is provided regarding emissions of PM10 and PM2.5, although these did not originate in the TRACE-P data. Furthermore, it was found that the 0.5°×0.5° grid-based emissions from the two inventories match well for NO x , NMVOC, CO, and PM2.5, even though the spatial allocation techniques for the local inventory are much more detailed. For SO2 emissions, the differences in the grid-based inventories are greater. Although some problems still remain, such as diurnal variations that are not considered in the standard emissions data, the intercomparison analysis suggests that the standard emissions data have appropriate properties for atmospheric model simulation. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Annual emission trends of sulfur dioxide, black carbon, and organic carbon are presented for East Asia for the period 1980–2000. Emissions of sulfur dioxide peaked in about 1996, and emissions of the carbonaceous aerosols peaked in about 1994–1995, due to a variety of economic, environmental, and social forces. These emissions are converted to their contributions to aerosol optical depth (AOD) over East Asia, using regional results from the GOCART global chemical transport model. We calculate that, on average, AOD over China rose from a value of 0.25 in 1980, peaked at a value of about 0.305 in 1995–1996, and then decreased to about 0.29 in 2000. This trend is consistent with surface shortwave irradiance measurements at 52 weather stations in China, as well as with other radiation-related trends. It may also be consistent with a rise in mean surface temperatures in China starting about the middle of the 1990s. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Future global emissions of aerosols will play an important role in governing the nature and magnitude of future anthropogenic climate change. We present in this paper a number of future scenarios of emissions of black carbon (BC) and organic carbon (OC) by world region, which we combine with sulfate (SO4) assessed in terms of the emissions of its precursor, SO2. We find that aerosol emissions from the household and industrial sectors are likely to decline along almost all future pathways. Transportation emissions, however, are subject to complex interacting forces that can lead to either increases or decreases. Biomass burning declines in many scenarios, but the Amazon rainforests remain vulnerable if unsustainable economic growth persists. East Asia is the key region for primary aerosols, and trends in China will have a major bearing on the direction and magnitude of releases of BC (expected reductions in the range of 640--1290 Gg), OC (reductions of 520--1900 Gg), and SO2 (ranging from an increase of 21 Tg to a reduction of 30 Tg). Analysis of joint BC, OC, and SO2 emission changes identifies a number of key world regions and economic sectors that could be effectively targeted for aerosol reductions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: China is taking major steps to improve Beijing''s air quality for the 2008 Olympic Games. However, concentrations of fine particulate matter and ozone in Beijing often exceed healthful levels in the summertime. Based on the US EPA''s Models-3/CMAQ model simulation over the Beijing region, we estimate that about 34% of PM2.5 on average and 35–60% of ozone during high ozone episodes at the Olympic Stadium site can be attributed to sources outside Beijing. Neighboring Hebei and Shandong Provinces and the Tianjin Municipality all exert significant influence on Beijing''s air quality. During sustained wind flow from the south, Hebei Province can contribute 50–70% of Beijing''s PM2.5 concentrations and 20–30% of ozone. Controlling only local sources in Beijing will not be sufficient to attain the air quality goal set for the Beijing Olympics. There is an urgent need for regional air quality management studies and new emission control strategies to ensure that the air quality goals for 2008 are met. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

The Pearl River Delta is a major manufacturing region on the south coast of China that produces more than $100 billion of goods annually for export to North America, Europe, and other parts of Asia. Considerable air pollution is caused by the manufacturing industries themselves and by the power plants, trucks, and ships that support them. We estimate that 10-40% of emissions of primary SO2, NOx, RSP, and VOC in the region are caused by export-related activities. Using the STEM-2K1 atmospheric transport model, we estimate that these emissions contribute 5-30% of the ambient concentrations of SO2, NOx, NOz, and VOC in the region. One reason that the exported goods are cheap and therefore attractive to consumers in developed countries is that emission controls are lacking or of low performance. We estimate that state-of-the-art controls could be installed at an annualized cost of $0.3-3 billion, representing 0.3-3% of the value of the goods produced. We conclude that mitigation measures could be adopted without seriously affecting the prices of exported goods and would achieve considerable human health and other benefits in the form of reduced air pollutant concentrations in densely populated urban areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: An inventory of mercury emissions from anthropogenic activities in China is compiled for the year 1999 from official statistical data. We estimate that China''s emissions were 536 (±236)t of total mercury. This value includes open biomass burning, but does not include natural sources or re-emission of previously deposited mercury. Approximately 45% of the Hg comes from non-ferrous metals smelting, 38% from coal combustion, and 17% from miscellaneous activities, of which battery and fluorescent lamp production and cement production are the largest. Emissions are heaviest in Liaoning and Guangdong Provinces, where extensive smelting occurs, and in Guizhou Province, where there is much small-scale combustion of high-Hg coal without emission control devices. Emissions are gridded at 30×30min spatial resolution. We estimate that 56% of the Hg in China is released as Hg0, 32% as Hg2+, and 12% as Hgp. Particulate mercury emissions are high in China due to heavy burning of coal in residential and small industrial settings without PM controls. Emissions of Hg2+ from coal-fired power plants are high due to the absence of flue-gas desulfurization units, which tend to dissolve the soluble divalent mercury. Metals smelting operations favor the production of elemental mercury. Much of the Hg is released from small-scale activities in rather remote areas, and therefore the activity levels are quite uncertain. Also, emissions test data for Chinese sources are lacking, causing uncertainties in Hg emission factors and removal efficiencies. Overall, we calculate an uncertainty level of ±44% (95% confidence interval) in the estimate of total emissions. We recommend field testing of coal combustors and smelters in China to improve the accuracy of these estimates. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

In the early 1990s, it was projected that annual SO[sub 2] emissions in Asia might grow to 80-110 Tg yr[sup -1] by 2020. Based on new high-resolution estimates from 1975 to 2000, we calculate that SO[sub 2] emissions in Asia might grow only to 40-45 Tg yr[sup -1] by 2020. The main reason for this lower estimate is a decline of SO[sub 2] emissions from 1995 to 2000 in China, which emits about two-thirds of Asian SO[sub 2]. The decline was due to a reduction in industrial coal use, a slowdown of the Chinese economy, and the closure of small and inefficient plants, among other reasons. One effect of the reduction in SO[sub 2] emissions in China has been a reduction in acid deposition not only in China but also in Japan. Reductions should also improve visibility and reduce health problems. SO[sub 2] emission reductions may increase global warming, but this warming effect could be partially offset by reductions in the emissions of black carbon. How SO[sub 2] emissions in the region change in the coming decades will depend on many competing factors (economic growth, pollution control laws, etc.). However a continuation of current trends would result in sulfur emissions lower than any IPCC forecasts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Addresses anthropogenic emissions of non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOC) in China at provincial level for the period 1990 to 2020. NMVOC emission factors for stationary fuel-related source categories; Important sources of NMVOC emissions; Assumed changes in the major activity parameters used in the estimation of NMVOC emissions for China.

Urges the United States (US) federal government to make strong commitment in applying state-of-the-art technologies to the challenge of air quality management. Success of the Clean Air Act of 1970; Government policy on pollutant emissions in the US; Technological innovations on pollution control in the US; Strategic initiatives in clean air in the US.

[Display omitted] This study evaluates the spatiotemporal heterogeneous effects of decarbonizing the central heating industry on employment from the perspective of new-type urbanization based on an innovative theoretical framework. Our average estimated CO 2 emission intensity of the central heating industry in China at the city-level decreased from 54.51 tCO 2 /100 m2 in 2012 to 47.24 tCO 2 /100 m2 in 2019. Decarbonization of the central heating industry may promote total employment in 72 % of the Chinese cities with the median effect is 0.005 % for each 1 % reduction of the heating carbon intensity. However, the promotion effect may be inhibited by ecological and environmental urbanization, while strengthening through population and land, economic, social, and urban–rural integration dimensions of urbanization. Our findings can provide policy implications for carbon emission control and new-type urbanization planning in cities to achieve stable employment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Cities and urban agglomerations are carriers of greenhouse gas emissions and show significant heterogeneity. China has entered a transitional period of new-type urbanization, which emphasizes high-quality and coordinated regional development. However, evidence of the spatiotemporal heterogenous effects of new-type urbanization on carbon emissions in cities, and especially in urban agglomerations are still lacking. This study estimated the new-type urbanization level and investigated its spatiotemporal heterogenous impacts on carbon dioxide emissions (CO₂) in 288 Chinese cities and 18 urban agglomerations. The results show that for each 1% increase in new-type urbanization level, the median estimation of CO₂ emissions per capita can decrease by 171.0% (46.8%,338.4%) at city-level. The inverted "U-shaped" relationships between new-type urbanization and CO₂ emissions per capita were observed in more than 60% of the cities. The average impacts of new-type urbanization and its square term of the cities which are located in urban agglomerations are estimated to be approximately 0.8 and 1.7 times of cities that are not, which indicates that cities in urban agglomerations are peaking their CO₂ emissions per capita with a higher enhancement of new-type urbanization. The results add new insights for formulating dynamic phase-to-phase carbon reduction policies and urban planning in cities and urban agglomerations. [Display omitted] [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Reports the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions in China. Reforms in the coal and energy industries; Analysis of economic restructuring policies in factories; Decline in coal production and consumption.

The Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) has been estimating NO 2 columns from space for over 10 years, and these have been used to estimate emissions and emission trends for point and area sources all over the world. In this study we evaluate the trends in NO 2 columns over 54 cities in the USA and Canada to identify the long term trends due to air quality policies, the impact of the Great Recession, and the weekday-weekend effect. A multiple linear regression model is used to fit annual, seasonal and weekly factors for individual swath retrievals along with the impact of temperature, wind speed and pixel size. For most cities, the correlation coefficients of the model fit ranges from 0.47 to 0.76. There have been strong reductions in NO 2 columns, with annual decreases of up to 7% per year in most cities. During the years of the Great Recession, NO 2 columns were as much as 30% lower than they would have been had they followed the linear annual trend. The analysis yielded insights into the timing of the reductions, with some cities in the northwest and in the east experiencing reductions in 2008 already, and most areas back to where they would have been based on the uniform trend by 2011. The analysis also finds that reductions in columns during the weekend vary significantly from city to city, with a range in reductions of 10%–30% on Saturdays, and 20%–50% on Sundays. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Isolated power plants with well characterized emissions serve as an ideal test case of methods to estimate emissions using satellite data. In this study we evaluate the Exponentially-Modified Gaussian (EMG) method and the box model method based on mass balance for estimating known NO x emissions from satellite retrievals made by the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI). We consider 29 power plants in the USA which have large NO x plumes that do not overlap with other sources and which have emissions data from the Continuous Emission Monitoring System (CEMS). This enables us to identify constraints required by the methods, such as which wind data to use and how to calculate background values. We found that the lifetimes estimated by the methods are too short to be representative of the chemical lifetime. Instead, we introduce a separate lifetime parameter to account for the discrepancy between estimates using real data and those that theory would predict. In terms of emissions, the EMG method required averages from multiple years to give accurate results, whereas the box model method gave accurate results for individual ozone seasons. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We explore implications of the United Nations Minamata Convention on Mercury for emissions from Asian coal-fired power generation, and resulting changes to deposition worldwide by 2050. We use engineering analysis, document analysis, and interviews to construct plausible technology' scenarios consistent with the Convention. We translate these scenarios into emissions projections for 2050, and use the GEOS-Chem model to calculate global mercury deposition. Where technology requirements in the Convention are flexibly defined, under a global energy and development scenario that relies heavily on coal, we project ∼90 and 150 Mg·y-1 of avoided power sector emissions for China and India, respectively, in 2050, compared to a scenario in which only current technologies are used. Benefits of this avoided emissions growth are primarily captured regionally, with projected changes in annual average gross deposition over China and India ∼2 and 13 μg·m-2 lower, respectively, than the current technology case. Stricter, but technologically feasible, mercury control requirements in both countries could lead to a combined additional 170 Mg y-1 avoided emissions. Assuming only current technologies but a global transition away from coal avoids 6% and 36% more emissions than this strict technology scenario under heavy coal use for China and India, respectively. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This work evaluates the effectiveness of on-road primary particulate matter emission reductions that can be achieved by long-term vehicle scrappage and retrofit measures on regional and global levels. Scenario analysis shows that scrappage can provide significant emission reductions as soon as the measures begin, whereas retrofit provides greater emission reductions in later years, when more advanced technologies become available in most regions. Reductions are compared with a baseline that already accounts for implementation of clean vehicle standards. The greatest global emission reductions from a scrappage program occur 5 to 10 years after its introduction and can reach as much as 70%. The greatest reductions with retrofit occur around 2030 and range from 16-31%. Monte Carlo simulations are used to evaluate how uncertainties in the composition of the vehicle fleet affect predicted reductions. Scrappage and retrofit reduce global emissions by 22-60% and 15-31%, respectively, within 95% confidence intervals, under a midrange scenario in the year 2030. The simulations provide guidance about which strategies are most effective for specific regions. Retrofit is preferable for high-income regions. For regions where early emission standards are in place, scrappage is suggested, followed by retrofit after more advanced emission standards are introduced. The early implementation of advanced emission standards is recommended for Western and Eastern Africa. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

China has been placing a substantial focus on biogas for reducing energy consumption and carbon dioxide (CO 2) emissions. The operation mode of biogas systems may make the CO 2 reduction target over-optimistic. There is limited research to investigate the influential factors that may be causing the gap between the actual and theoretical CO 2 reduction costs of biogas systems in China. In this research, by using field survey data of 209 biogas users and 489 non-biogas users from 19 villages in 2015, the gap between actual and theoretical unit CO 2 reduction cost is quantified at approximately 156 USD/t CO 2. By employing the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index I (LMDI) model, it is found that both the cost effect (48%) and the reduction effect (52%) contribute to the unit CO 2 reduction cost gap. Four influential factors–household labor, accessibility to the energy resource, acceptance of biogas technology, and subsidy–significantly narrow the gap between actual and theoretical CO 2 reduction costs, while the levelized subsidy contributes to widening the gap. On average, biogas systems should be operated for at least four years and the substitution rate should be more than 67% in order to keep the gap between actual and theoretical CO 2 reduction costs under 50%. • Actual and theoretical CO 2 reduction costs of biogas systems are assessed. • The gaps are decomposed to the cost effect and the reduction effect. • Five key influential factors are investigated to narrow the gap. • The under-estimated CO 2 reduction costs of biogas systems are evaluated. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

East Asia is one of the largest source regions that release mercury into the atmosphere. Although extensive studies have been devoted to estimating the anthropogenic mercury emission, little is known about mercury emission from natural sources in the region. In this study, we adapt the algorithms developed previously, coupled with detailed GIS data and satellite LAI products, to estimate mercury emission from natural sources including vegetation, soil, and water surfaces in an East Asian domain containing 164×97 grid cells at a spatial resolution of 36km. Seasonal simulations were performed to project the annual emission quantity. The simulated emission shows strong diurnal and seasonal variations due to meteorology and vegetation coverage. The annual emission in the form of gaseous elemental mercury (GEM) from the domain in 2001 is estimated to be 834Mg, with 462Mg contributed from China. The estimated GEM emission is comparable to the reported anthropogenic emission of 575±261Mg (56% GEM, 32% reactive gaseous mercury, 12% particulate mercury; Wu, Y., Wang, S., Streets, D.G., Hao, J., Chan, M., Jiang, J., 2006. Trends in anthropogenic mercury emissions in China from 1995 to 2003. Environmental Science & Technology 40, 5312–5318) in China for the year 2001, and dominates the anthropogenic emission during the warm season. Combining the anthropogenic and natural emission estimates, the total mercury emission from China is 776–1298Mg, with GEM being in the range of 660–1000Mg. The latter is similar to the GEM emission quantity inferred from aircraft measurement (765Mg; Friedli, H.R., Radke, L.F., Prescott, R., Li, P., Woo, J.-H., Carmichael, G.R., 2004. Mercury in the atmosphere around Japan, Korea and China as observed during the 2001 ACE Asia field campaign: measurements, distributions, sources, and implications. Journal of Geophysical Research 109, D19 S25) and modeling estimate (1140Mg; Pan, L., Chai, T., Carmichael, G.R., Tang, Y., Streets, G.G., Woo, J.-H., Friedli, H.R., Radke, L.F., 2007a. Top-down estimate of mercury emissions in China using four-dimensional variational data assimilation. Atmospheric Environment 41, 2804–2819) in China for the year 2001. The estimated natural emission helps explain the gap between the anthropogenic emission estimates based on activity data (e.g., Pacyna, J.M., Pacyna, E., Steenhuisen, F., Wilson, S., 2006. Global anthropogenic mercury emission inventory for 2000. Atmospheric Environment 40, 4048–4063; Wu, Y., Wang, S., Streets, D.G., Hao, J., Chan, M., Jiang, J., 2006. Trends in anthropogenic mercury emissions in China from 1995 to 2003. Environmental Science & Technology 40, 5312–5318) and the emission inferred from field observations (e.g., Jaffe, D., Prestbo, E., Swartzendruber, P., Weiss-Penzias, P., Kato, S., Takami, A., Hatakeyama, S., Kajii, Y., 2005. Export of atmospheric mercury from Asia. Atmospheric Environment 39, 3029–3038; Weiss-Penzias, P., Jaffe, D., Swartzendruber, P., Hafner, W., Chand, D., Prestbo, E., 2007. Quantifying Asian and biomass burning sources of mercury using the Hg/CO ratio in pollution plumes observed at the Mount Bachelor observatory. Atmospheric Environment 41, 4366–4379) in the region. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

An advanced modeling system with a “one-atmosphere” perspective, Models-3/Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ) modeling system, driven by MM5/NCEP reanalysis data as the meteorology, and GEOS-Chem outputs as boundary values was applied to simulate the O3, and other gaseous pollutants (SO2 and NO2) evolution among other atmospheric chemicals for July 2001. Comparisons had been made with other models in the MICS-II exercise for the same period. Statistics of both monthly and daily means show that the model skill is very good in reproducing O3 and SO2 with small to moderate RMSE. The model species capture the day-to-day and spatial variability of the observations. The same O3 model concentrations that overpredict most of the EANET observations in the MICS-II study may have underpredicted ones from monitoring networks in Beijing area that is not included in this paper. Vertical O3 profiles at 4 ozonesonde sites are well predicted in July 2001. In fact, our model is among the best of those MICS-II models within the 2-km surface layer. The meteorology near surface and lower troposphere is well reproduced. Compared to SO2 and O3, the NO2 gas concentrations are simulated less well, but the correlation coefficient is still significant. The choice of reanalysis meteorological fields and different boundary conditions generated by different global models may result in diverse spatial patterns exhibited by MICS-II models and ours. Our spatial distributions of O3 shows a high concentration patch covering Beijing, a moderate to high pattern across Korea and Japan Sea, and a low but extensive pattern enclosing southern China, Taiwan, and East Sea. Extension of the pattern to southern China coincides with the existence of pollution problems in Guangdong and Taiwan, but overprediction of O3 over the region deserves further improvement by various factors. One of them can be the grid resolution to resolve the complex orography in or close to the ocean. Another factor can be the refinement of local land use data that changes the micro-meteorology in favor of more air pollution events. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

We have developed multiple-year inventories of anthropogenic mercury emissions in China for 1995 through 2003. We estimate that total Hg emissions from all anthropogenic sources increased at an average annual rate of 2.9% during the period 19957#x2013;2003, reaching 696 (±307) t in 2003, with a speciation split of 395 t of Hg0, 230 t of Hg2+, and 70 t of HgP. Nonferrous metals smelting and coal combustion continue to be the two leading mercury sources in China, as nonferrous metals production and coal consumption keep increasing. Nonferrous metals smelting and coal combustion together contributed ∼80% of total Hg emissions during the past decade. Hg emissionsfrom coal combustion increased from 202 tin 1995 to 257 tin 2003 at an average annual rate of 3.0%. Among all of the coal consumption sectors, the power sector is the leading one in Hg emissions growth, up by 5.9% annually. Hg emissions from nonferrous metals smelting increased from 230 tin 1995 to 321 t in 2003 at an average annual rate of 4.2%. Although Hg emissions related to gold smelting decreased since 1996, other nonferrous metals such as zinc, lead, and copper contributed significant Hg growth at annual rates of 8.5%, 13.0%, and 6.9%, respectively. At provincial level, the trends of Hg emissions show significant variation. The uncertainty level decreased from ±78% (95% confidence interval) in the estimate of total emissions in 1995, to ±44% in 2003. This is primarily attributed to the decreased emissions from those Hg sources with the largest uncertainty in both activity levels and emission factors, such as artisanal gold smelting, mercury mining, and battery/fluorescent lamp production. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Chinese "coal-to-gas" and "coal-to-electricity" strategies aim at reducing dispersed coal consumption and related air pollution by promoting the use of clean and low-carbon fuels in northern China. Here, we show that on top of meteorological influences, the effective emission mitigation measures achieved an average decrease of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) concentrations of ∼14% in Beijing and surrounding areas (the "2+26" pilot cities) in winter 2017 compared to the same period of 2016, where the dispersed coal control measures contributed ∼60% of the total PM2.5 reductions. However, the localized air quality improvement was accompanied by a contemporaneous ∼15% upsurge of PM2.5 concentrations over large areas in southern China. We find that the pollution transfer that resulted from a shift in emissions was of a high likelihood caused by a natural gas shortage in the south due to the coal-to-gas transition in the north. The overall shortage of natural gas greatly jeopardized the air quality benefits of the coal-to-gas strategy in winter 2017 and reflects structural challenges and potential threats in China's clean-energy transition. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

TROPOMI satellite data show substantial drops in nitrogen dioxide (NO2) during COVID‐19 physical distancing. To attribute NO2 changes to NOx emissions changes over short timescales, one must account for meteorology. We find that meteorological patterns were especially favorable for low NO2 in much of the United States in spring 2020, complicating comparisons with spring 2019. Meteorological variations between years can cause column NO2 differences of ~15% over monthly timescales. After accounting for solar angle and meteorological considerations, we calculate that NO2 drops ranged between 9.2% and 43.4% among 20 cities in North America, with a median of 21.6%. Of the studied cities, largest NO2 drops (>30%) were in San Jose, Los Angeles, and Toronto, and smallest drops (<12%) were in Miami, Minneapolis, and Dallas. These normalized NO2 changes can be used to highlight locations with greater activity changes and better understand the sources contributing to adverse air quality in each city. Plain Language Summary: Nitrogen dioxide (NO2) is an air pollutant whose prevalence in urban areas is linked to fossil fuel combustion. The NO2 in our atmosphere is primarily a function of the magnitude of nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions and weather factors such as sun angle, wind speed, and temperature. In this work, we developed two novel methods to account for weather impacts on daily pollution levels during COVID‐19 precautions. Once we accounted for favorable weather conditions that in some cases kept air pollution low independent of tailpipe emissions, calculated air pollutant emission reductions varied dramatically (9–43%) among 20 North American cities. Results can be used to understand factors contributing to inconsistent NO2 changes during physical distancing, which can inform the effectiveness of COVID‐19 protocols and aid future policy development. These methodologies will allow us to respond more quickly in future unintended experiments when emissions change suddenly. Key Points: Meteorological patterns were especially favorable for low NO2 in much of the United States in spring 2020, complicating comparisons with spring 2019Weather variations between years can cause column NO2 differences of ~15% over monthly timescalesNO2 drops attributed to COVID‐19 lockdowns ranged between 9.2% and 43.4% among 20 cities in North America, with a median of 21.6% [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Highlights • Spatiotemporal changes of central heating CO 2 emissions at city level are shown. • A high-resolution gridded inventory of heating-related CO 2 emissions is built. • The satellite nighttime light data is used to downscale the city level emissions. • Differences in CO 2 emissions between urban and non-urban areas are discussed. Abstract Energy consumption from central heating has rapidly increased in the cities of the North China Plain (NCP). The increasing use of natural gas in the central heating supply system may have altered the spatial and temporal patterns of CO 2 emissions from central heating, yet the quantitative impacts are poorly understood. Here we detect the spatio-temporal dynamics of CO 2 emissions of central heating from 2012 to 2016 at the prefectural-city level in the NCP region, by using the satellite NPP-VIIRS nighttime light data and a panel regression model to estimate CO 2 emissions on a 5 × 5 km2 grid. We find that despite a slight decrease (2%) in 2014 under the "Natural Gas Utilization Policy", CO 2 emissions continued to grow. Between 2012 and 2016, CO 2 emissions from central heating in the NCP increased from 106 to 121 Tg, although CO 2 emissions declined by 12% in Beijing due to the increasing contribution of natural gas boilers. The gridded CO 2 emissions map shows that over 2012–2016 coal burning is the main driving force of CO 2 emissions in both urban and non-urban regions, despite the increasing fraction of gas-based heating. Our results contribute to city-level policymaking on carbon reduction and climate change mitigation. The high-resolution gridded CO 2 emissions can also be applied in physical models to facilitate carbon cycle studies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract A novel back-trajectory approach was adopted to determine the origins of black carbon (BC) and carbon monoxide (CO) transported to Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei. Results showed that the transport efficiency was controlled mainly by mid-latitude westerlies in winter, the South Asian monsoon in summer and prevailing westerly and northwesterly winds in spring and autumn. Hebei was identified as the most important source region of both BC (respectively accounting for 55% and 49%) and CO (39% and 38%) transported to Beijing and Tianjin. Inner Mongolia contributed more to the effective emission intensity (EEI) in winter than in summer for both BC and CO transported to Beijing and Tianjin. Shandong was responsible for higher EEI in summer than in winter. The six provinces making the greatest contributions to BC transported to Hebei were Shandong (19%), Shanxi (19%), Inner Mongolia (17%), Beijing (11%), Henan (11%), and Tianjin (10%), whereas those making the greatest contributions to CO transported to Hebei were Shandong (20%), Inner Mongolia (10%), Tianjin (9%), Henan (9%), Shanxi (9%), and Beijing (8%). In summary, Hebei, Inner Mongolia, Shandong, Tianjin and Shanxi were determined as the dominant source regions of not only BC but also CO transported to Beijing. Hebei, Shandong, Beijing, Inner Mongolia, Henan, Liaoning and Shanxi were relatively important source regions for Tianjin. Shandong, Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, Beijing, Henan, Tianjin, Liaoning, Jiangsu and Anhui were the main source regions for Hebei. Residential and industrial sectors were the dominant sectors for BC and CO transported to the receptors, respectively. These results are consistent with the results of previous studies. Finally, comparing the observed ΔBC/ΔCO ratio with the enhancement ratio of the EEI of BC with that of CO (ΔEEI BC /ΔEEI CO) at Miyun site, we further confirmed that the EEI can be used to represent the amounts of BC and CO reaching receptors. Graphical abstract Unlabelled Image Highlights • A novel back-trajectory approach was adopted to determine the origins of BC and CO. • The source regions of BC and CO in Beijing, Tianjin, and Hebei were determined. • Dominant source sectors of BC and CO in Beijing, Tianjin, and Hebei were identified. • TE was controlled mainly by the prevailing winds in different seasons. • EEI can represent amounts of BC and CO transported to Beijing, Tianjin, and Hebei. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract To link short-term exposures of air pollutants to health outcomes, scientists must use high temporal and spatial resolution estimates of PM 2.5 concentrations. In this work, we develop a daily PM 2.5 product at 1 × 1 km2 spatial resolution across the eastern United States (east of 90° W) with the aid of 1 × 1 km2 MAIAC aerosol optical depth (AOD) data, 36 × 36 km2 WRF-Chem output, 1 × 1 km2 land-use type from the National Land Cover Database, and 0.125° × 0.125° ERA-Interim re-analysis meteorology. A gap-filling technique is applied to MAIAC AOD data to construct robust daily estimates of AOD when the satellite data are missing (e.g., areas obstructed by clouds or snow cover). The input data are incorporated into a multiple-linear regression model trained to surface observations of PM 2.5 from the EPA Air Quality System (AQS) monitoring network. The model generates a high-fidelity estimate (r2 = 0.75 using a 10-fold random cross-validation) of daily PM 2.5 throughout the eastern United States. Of the inputs to the statistical model, WRF-Chem output (r2 = 0.66) is the most important contributor to the skill of the model. MAIAC AOD is also a strong contributor (r2 = 0.52). Daily PM 2.5 output from our statistical model can be easily integrated into county-level epidemiological studies. The novelty of this project is that we are able to simulate PM 2.5 in a computationally efficient manner that is constrained to ground monitors, satellite data, and chemical transport model output at high spatial resolution (1 × 1 km2) without sacrificing the temporal resolution (daily) or spatial coverage (>2,000,000 km2). Graphical abstract Image 1 Highlights • Daily 1 km PM2.5 is estimated in the eastern US with excellent performance. • Statistical model yields a random 10-fold CV of r2 = 0.75 and a spatial CV of r2 = 0.73. • Satellite data is gap-filled when clouds and snow obstruct retrieval. • Data from a 36 km WRF-Chem simulation is a key contributor to overall performance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Biomass fermentation and gasification are two types of biomass utilization technologies for residential households. Government plays an essential role in the diffusion of improved technologies. Cost-effectiveness analysis can provide the cost and abatement potentials of each alternative under a single abatement strategy; however, it is difficult for policy-makers to make an integrated assessment when multiple objectives are involved. This paper evaluates the performance of three distributed alternatives and two centralized alternatives for residential biomass use in rural China, including centralized biogas and centralized gasifier systems. An integrated assessment approach is built, which combines cost-benefit analysis, an entropy-weighting method, and a preference-ranking organization method for enrichment evaluations using the PROMETHEE approach. A total of 686 sample households in three regions of China were surveyed in this study. The centralized gasifier system and distributed household biogas were the top two alternatives for further development to meet the government's 2020 development goal for biogas technology. The overall biomass utilization amount in the prioritized scenario is about three times that of the business-as-usual scenario by 2020. This study can provide significant insights for China's policy-makers to draft strategic policies and countermeasures that will promote the development of renewable energy in China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Residential solid fuel combustion makes a major contribution to black carbon (BC) emissions in China. A new estimation of BC emissions from rural solid biomass and coal consumption has been derived from field survey data. The following new contributions are made: (1) emission factors are collected and reviewed; (2) household energy data are collected from field survey data and from the literature; (3) a new extrapolation method is developed to extend the field survey data to other locations; (4) the ownership and usage of two stove types are estimated and considered in the emission calculations; and (5) uncertainties associated with the estimation results are quantified. It is shown that rural households with higher income will consume less biomass but more coal. Agricultural acreage and temperature also significantly influence the amount of solid fuel consumed in rural areas. It is estimated that 640 ± 245 Gg BC/y were emitted to the atmosphere due to residential solid fuel consumption in rural China in 2014. Emissions of BC from straw, wood, and coal contributed 42 ± 13%, 36 ± 15%, and 22 ± 10% of the total, respectively. We show that effective BC mitigation (a reduction of 47%) could be obtained through widespread introduction of improved stoves in rural households. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The prospect of global climate change will have wide scale impacts, such as ecological stress and human health hazards. One aspect of concern is future changes in air quality that will result from changes in both meteorological forcing and air pollutant emissions. In this study, the GU-WRF/Chem model is employed to simulate the impact of changing climate and emissions following the IPCC AR4 SRES A1B scenario. An average of 4 future years (2020, 2030, 2040, and 2050) is compared against an average of 2 current years (2001 and 2010). Under this scenario, by the Mid-21st century global air quality is projected to degrade with a global average increase of 2.5 ppb in the maximum 8-hr O 3 level and of 0.3 μg m −3 in 24-hr average PM 2.5 . However, PM 2.5 changes are more regional due to regional variations in primary aerosol emissions and emissions of gaseous precursor for secondary PM 2.5 . Increasing NO x emissions in this scenario combines with a wetter climate elevating levels of OH, HO 2 , H 2 O 2 , and the nitrate radical and increasing the atmosphere’s near surface oxidation state. This differs from findings under the RCP scenarios that experience declines in OH from reduced NO x emissions, stratospheric recovery of O 3 , and increases in CH 4 and VOCs. Increasing NO x and O 3 levels enhances the nitrogen and O 3 deposition, indicating potentially enhanced crop damage and ecosystem stress under this scenario. The enhanced global aerosol level results in enhancements in aerosol optical depth, cloud droplet number concentration, and cloud optical thickness. This leads to dimming at the Earth’s surface with a global average reduction in shortwave radiation of 1.2 W m −2 . This enhanced dimming leads to a more moderate warming trend and different trends in radiation than those found in NCAR’s CCSM simulation, which does not include the advanced chemistry and aerosol treatment of GU-WRF/Chem and cannot simulate the impacts of changing climate and emissions with the same level of detailed treatments. This study indicates that effective climate mitigation and emission control strategies are needed to prevent future health impact and ecosystem stress. Further, studies that are used to develop these strategies should use fully coupled models with sophisticated chemical and aerosol-interaction treatments that can provide a more realistic representation of the atmosphere. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Emissions of nitrogen oxides (NO x ) and, subsequently, atmospheric levels of nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ) have decreased over the U.S. due to a combination of environmental policies and technological change. Consequently, NO 2 levels have decreased by 30–40% in the last decade. We quantify NO 2 trends (2005–2013) over the U.S. using surface measurements from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Air Quality System (AQS) and an improved tropospheric NO 2 vertical column density (VCD) data product from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) on the Aura satellite. We demonstrate that the current OMI NO 2 algorithm is of sufficient maturity to allow a favorable correspondence of trends and variations in OMI and AQS data. Our trend model accounts for the non-linear dependence of NO 2 concentration on emissions associated with the seasonal variation of the chemical lifetime, including the change in the amplitude of the seasonal cycle associated with the significant change in NO x emissions that occurred over the last decade. The direct relationship between observations and emissions becomes more robust when one accounts for these non-linear dependencies. We improve the OMI NO 2 standard retrieval algorithm and, subsequently, the data product by using monthly vertical concentration profiles, a required algorithm input, from a high-resolution chemistry and transport model (CTM) simulation with varying emissions (2005–2013). The impact of neglecting the time-dependence of the profiles leads to errors in trend estimation, particularly in regions where emissions have changed substantially. For example, trends calculated from retrievals based on time-dependent profiles offer 18% more instances of significant trends and up to 15% larger total NO 2 reduction versus the results based on profiles for 2005. Using a CTM, we explore the theoretical relation of the trends estimated from NO 2 VCDs to those estimated from ground-level concentrations. The model-simulated trends in VCDs strongly correlate with those estimated from surface concentrations ( r = 0.83, N = 355). We then explore the observed correspondence of trends estimated from OMI and AQS data. We find a significant, but slightly weaker, correspondence (i.e., r = 0.68, N = 208) than predicted by the model and discuss some of the important factors affecting the relationship, including known problems (e.g., NO z interferents) associated with the AQS data. This significant correspondence gives confidence in trend and surface concentration estimates from OMI VCDs for locations, such as the majority of the U.S. and globe, that are not covered by surface monitoring networks. Using our improved trend model and our enhanced OMI data product, we find that both OMI and AQS data show substantial downward trends from 2005 to 2013, with an average reduction of 38% for each over the U.S. The annual reduction rates inferred from OMI and AQS measurements are larger (−4.8 ± 1.9%/yr, −3.7 ± 1.5%/yr) from 2005 to 2008 than 2010 to 2013 (−1.2 ± 1.2%/yr, −2.1 ± 1.4%/yr). We quantify NO 2 trends for major U.S. cities and power plants; the latter suggest larger negative trend (−4.0 ± 1.5%/yr) between 2005 and 2008 and smaller or insignificant changes (−0.5 ± 1.2%/yr) during 2010–2013. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Column densities from satellite retrievals can provide valuable information for estimating emissions and chemical lifetimes objectively across the globe. To better understand the uncertainties associated with these estimates, we test four methods using simulated column densities from a point source: a box model approach, a 2D Gaussian fit, an Inverse Radius fit and an Exponentially-Modified Gaussian fit. The model results were simulated using the WRF and CAMx models for the year 2005, for a single point source outside Atlanta in Georgia, USA with specified emissions and three chemical scenarios: no chemical reactions, 12 h chemical lifetime and 1 h chemical lifetime. No other sources were included in the simulations. We find that the box model provides reliable estimates irrespective of plume speed and plume direction, if the plume speed and the chemical lifetime are known accurately. The 2D Gaussian fit was found to be sensitive to plume speed and direction, and requires omnidirectional dispersion in order to have a decent fit. However, the 2D Gaussian fit is only an approximate fit to the data, and the discrepancies mean that the results are dependent on the geographical domain used for the optimization. An Inverse Radius fit is introduced to correct this issue, which is found to provide improved emissions and lifetime estimates. The Exponentially-Modified Gaussian fit also gave improved estimates. It is however dependent on accurate plume rotation such that reported chemical lifetimes with this method could be significantly underestimated. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Epidemiologic and health impact studies are inhibited by the paucity of global, long-term measurements of the chemical composition of fine particulate matter. We inferred PM2.5 chemical composition at 0.1° × 0.1° spatial resolution for 2004-2008 by combining aerosol optical depth retrieved from the MODIS and MISR satellite instruments, with coincident profile and composition information from the GEOS-Chem global chemical transport model. Evaluation of the satellite-model PM 2.5 composition data set with North American in situ measurements indicated significant spatial agreement for secondary inorganic aerosol, particulate organic mass, black carbon, mineral dust, and sea salt. We found that global population-weighted PM2.5 concentrations were dominated by particulate organic mass (11.9 ± 7.3 μg/m3), secondary inorganic aerosol (11.1 ± 5.0 μg/m3), and mineral dust (11.1 ± 7.9 μg/m3). Secondary inorganic PM 2.5concentrations exceeded 30 μg/m3 over East China. Sensitivity simulations suggested that population weighted ambient PM2.5 from bio-fuel burning (11 μg/m3) could be almost as large as from fossil fuel combustion sources (17 μg/m3). These estimates offer information about global population exposure to the chemical components and sources of PM2.5. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Satellite data of atmospheric pollutants are becoming more widely used in the decision-making and environmental management activities of public, private sector and non-profit organizations. They are employed for estimating emissions, tracking pollutant plumes, supporting air quality forecasting activities, providing evidence for "exceptional event" declarations, monitoring regional long-term trends, and evaluating air quality model output. However, many air quality managers are not taking full advantage of the data for these applications nor has the full potential of satellite data for air quality applications been realized. A key barrier is the inherent difficulties associated with accessing, processing, and properly interpreting observational data. A degree of technical skill is required on the part of the data end-user, which is often problematic for air quality agencies with limited resources. Therefore, we 1) review the primary uses of satellite data for air quality applications, 2) provide some background information on satellite capabilities for measuring pollutants, 3) discuss the many resources available to the end-user for accessing, processing, and visualizing the data, and 4) provide answers to common questions in plain language. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The intentional use of mercury (Hg) in products and processes ("commercial Hg") has contributed a large and previously unquantified anthropogenic source of Hg to the global environment over the industrial era, with major implications for Hg accumulation in environmental reservoirs. We present a global inventory of commercial Hg uses and releases to the atmosphere, water, soil, and landfills from 1850 to 2010. Previous inventories of anthropogenic Hg releases have focused almost exclusively on atmospheric emissions from "byproduct" sectors (e.g., fossil fuel combustion). Cumulative anthropogenic atmospheric Hg emissions since 1850 have recently been estimated at 215 Gg (only including commercial Hg releases from chlor-alkali production, waste incineration, and mining). We find that other commercial Hg uses and nonatmospheric releases from chlor-alkali and mining result in an additional 540 Gg of Hg released to the global environment since 1850 (air: 20%; water: 30%; soil: 30%; landfills: 20%). Some of this release has been sequestered in landfills and benthic sediments, but 310 Gg actively cycles among geochemical reservoirs and contributes to elevated presentday environmental Hg concentrations. Commercial Hg use peaked in 1970 and has declined sharply since. We use our inventory of historical environmental releases to force a global biogeochemical model that includes new estimates of the global burial in ocean margin sediments. Accounting for commercial Hg releases improves model consistency with observed atmospheric concentrations and associated historical trends. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Mercury (Hg) emissions from coal combustion contribute approximately half of anthropogenic Hg emissions to the atmosphere. With the implementation of the first legally binding UNEP treaty aimed at reducing anthropogenic Hg emissions, the identification and traceability of Hg emissions from different countries/regions are critically important. Here, we present a comprehensive world coal Hg stable isotope database including 108 new coal samples from major coal-producing deposits in South Africa, China, Europe, India, Indonesia, Mongolia, former USSR, and the U.S. A 4.7%c range in δ202Hg (-3.9 to 0.8‰) and a 1 ‰ range in Δ199Hg (-0 .6 to 0.4‰) are observed. Fourteen (p < 0.05) to 17 (p < 0.1) of the 28 pairwise comparisons between eight global regions are statistically distinguishable on the basis of δ202Hg, A199Hg or both, highlighting the potential application of Hg isotope signatures to coal Hg emissions tracing. A revised coal combustion Hg isotope fractionation model is presented, and suggests that gaseous elemental coal Hg emissions are enriched in the heavier Hg isotopes relative to oxidized forms of emitted Hg. The model explains to first order the published δ202Hg observations on near-field Hg deposition from a power plant and global scale atmospheric gaseous Hg. Yet, model uncertainties appear too large at present to permit straightforward Hg isotope source identification of atmospheric forms of Hg. Finally, global historical (1850-2008) coal Hg isotope emission curves were modeled and indicate modern-day mean δ202 Hg and A199Hg values for bulk coal emissions of -1.2 ± 0.5‰ (1SD) and 0.05 ± 0.06‰ (1SD). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Estimates of future emissions are necessary for understanding the future health of the atmosphere, designing national and international strategies for air quality control, and evaluating mitigation policies. Emission inventories are uncertain and future projections even more so, thus it is important to quantify the uncertainty inherent in emission projections. This paper is the second in a series that seeks to establish a more mechanistic understanding of future air pollutant emissions based on changes in technology. The first paper in this series (Yan et al., 2011) described a model that projects emissions based on dynamic changes of vehicle fleet, Speciated Pollutant Emission Wizard-Trend, or SPEW-Trend. In this paper, we explore the underlying uncertainties of global and regional exhaust PM emission projections from on-road vehicles in the coming decades using sensitivity analysis and Monte Carlo simulation. This work examines the emission sensitivities due to uncertainties in retirement rate, timing of emission standards, transition rate of high-emitting vehicles called “superemitters”, and emission factor degradation rate. It is concluded that global emissions are most sensitive to parameters in the retirement rate function. Monte Carlo simulations show that emission uncertainty caused by lack of knowledge about technology composition is comparable to the uncertainty demonstrated by alternative economic scenarios, especially during the period 2010–2030. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

China is the world's largest emitter of anthropogenic air pollutants, and measurable amounts of Chinese pollution are transported via the atmosphere to other countries, including the United States. However, a large fraction of Chinese emissions is due to manufacture of goods for foreign consumption. Here, we analyze the impacts of trade-related Chinese air pollutant emissions on the global atmospheric environment, linking an economic-emission analysis and atmospheric chemical transport modeling. We find that in 2006, 36% of anthropogenic sulfur dioxide, 27% of nitrogen oxides, 22% of carbon monoxide, and 17% of black carbon emitted in China were associated with production of goods for export. For each of these pollutants, about 21% of export-related Chinese emissions were attributed to China-to-US export. Atmospheric modeling shows that transport of the export-related Chinese pollution contributed 3-10% of annual mean surface sulfate concentrations and 0.5-1.5% of ozone over the western United States in 2006. This Chinese pollution also resulted in one extra day or more of noncompliance with the US ozone standard in 2006 over the Los Angeles area and many regions in the eastern United States. On a daily basis, the export-related Chinese pollution contributed, at a maximum, 12-24% of sulfate concentrations over the western United States. As the United States outsourced manufacturing to China, sulfate pollution in 2006 increased in the western United States but decreased in the eastern United States, reflecting the competing effect between enhanced transport of Chinese pollution and reduced US emissions. Our findings are relevant to international efforts to reduce transboundary air pollution. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: We show that Aura Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) nitrogen dioxide (NO2) tropospheric column data may be used to assess changes of the emissions of nitrogen oxides (NO x ) from power plants in the United States, though careful interpretation of the data is necessary. There is a clear response for OMI NO2 data to NO x emission reductions from power plants associated with the implementation of mandated emission control devices (ECDs) over the OMI record (2005&#x2013;2011). This response is scalar for all intents and purposes, whether the reduction is rapid or incremental over several years. However, it is variable among the power plants, even for those with the greatest absolute decrease in emissions. We document the primary causes of this variability, presenting case examples for specific power plants. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The limited understanding of black carbon (BC) aerosol emissions from incomplete combustion causes a poorly constrained anthropogenic climate warming that globally may be second only to CO2 and regionally, such as over East Asia, the dominant driver of climate change. The relative contribution to atmospheric BC from fossil fuel versus biomass combustion is important to constrain as fossil BC is a stronger climate forcer. The source apportionment is the underpinning for targeted mitigation actions. However, technology-based "bottom-up" emission inventories are inconclusive, largely due to uncertain BC emission factors from small-scale/household combustion and open burning. We use "top-down" radiocarbon measurements of atmospheric BC from five sites including three city sites and two regional sites to determine that fossil fuel combustion produces 80 ± 6% of the BC emitted from China. This source-diagnostic radiocarbon signal in the ambient aerosol over East Asia establishes a much larger role for fossil fuel combustion than suggested by all 15 BC emission inventory models, including one with monthly resolution. Our results suggest that current climate modeling should refine both BC emission strength and consider the stronger radiative absorption associated with fossil-fuel-derived BC. To mitigate near-term climate effects and improve air quality in East Asia, activities such as residential coal combustion and city traffic should be targeted. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]