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Higher incidences of asthma during thunderstorms can pose a serious health risk. In this study, we estimate the thunderstorm asthma risk using statistical methods, with special focus on Bavaria, Southern Germany. In this approach, a dataset of asthma-related emergency cases for the study region is combined with meteorological variables and aeroallergen data to identify statistical relationships between the occurrence of asthma (predictand) and different environmental parameters (set of predictors). On the one hand, the results provide evidence for a weak but significant relationship between atmospheric stability indices and asthma emergencies in the region, but also show that currently thunderstorm asthma is not a major concern in Bavaria due to overall low incidences. As thunderstorm asthma can have severe consequences for allergic patients, the presented approach can be important for the development of emergency strategies in regions affected by thunderstorm asthma and under present and future climate change conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Besides direct impacts due to lightning strokes, heavy precipitation and gale, thunderstorms can affect human health also indirectly, as was demonstrated in several studies. In this context, the phemonenon of thunderstorm asthma describes the occurrence of unusually high numbers of partly servere asthma cases (asthma bronchiale) in connection to thunderstorm events, especially during the pollen and fungal spore season. Affected individuals comprise not only asthmatics but also persons suffering generally from pollen allergy. Proposed mechanisms include an interaction of atmospheric processes and an increase of allergen concentrations in the ambient air, but the exact mechanisms leading to thunderstorm asthma epidemics as well as the characteristics of an asthma relevant thunderstorm event remain unclear.Utilizing meteorological data (lightning data, local as well as large scale meteorology, areawide precipitation), aerobiological data (local pollen counts differentiated by various species) and health data (daily asthma emergency cases), the study presented here, aims at examining the relationship between the occurrence of thunderstorms and elevated asthma morbidity in Bavaria, southern Germany, focusing on the region of the major city of Augsburg, for a study period including the years 2010-2017. For this purpose, the different kinds of data are combined on varying spatial and temporal degrees of aggregation.First statistical tests (chi-square test of independence) indicate the existence of a significant (α=0.1) connection between asthma days and thunderstorm days for different Bavarian cities for the whole study period as well as for individual seasonal subsets, applying different definitions for "asthma day". Composites of the CAPE index (convective available potential energy) for days with and without the occurrence of asthma cases, respectively, show an enhanced thunderstorm probability on summer days with at least one asthma emergency case in Augsburg. Furthermore, optimized weather type classifications are used in order to identify weather and thunderstorm types with increased asthma risk and comprehensively characterize those situations with regard to large scale atmospheric circulation, local meteorology and allergen load.The research project is funded by the Bavarian State Ministry of the Environment and Consumer Protection (StMUV) as well as the Bavarian State Ministry of Health and Care (StMGP) within the scope of the compound project "climate change and health". [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]