38 results on '"Stott, Alistair W."'
Search Results
2. Determinants of biosecurity behaviour of British cattle and sheep farmers—A behavioural economics analysis
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Toma, Luiza, Stott, Alistair W., Heffernan, Claire, Ringrose, Siân, and Gunn, George J.
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- 2013
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3. Consumers and animal welfare. A comparison between European Union countries
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Toma, Luiza, Stott, Alistair W., Revoredo-Giha, Cesar, and Kupiec-Teahan, Beata
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- 2012
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4. Evaluation of producer and consumer benefits resulting from eradication of bovine viral diarrhoea (BVD) in Scotland, United Kingdom
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Weldegebriel, Habtu T., Gunn, George J., and Stott, Alistair W.
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- 2009
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5. Balancing the animal welfare, farm profitability, human health and environmental outcomes of sheep ectoparasite control in Scottish flocks
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Milne, Catherine E., Dalton, Graham E., and Stott, Alistair W.
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- 2008
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6. Integrated control strategies for ectoparasites in Scottish sheep flocks
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Milne, Catherine E., Dalton, Graham E., and Stott, Alistair W.
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- 2007
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7. Genetic and physiological factors affecting thermoregulation and resistance to body cooling in newborn lambs
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Stott, Alistair W.
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636 ,Thermoregulation ,resistance to body cooling ,newborn lambs ,resistance to body cooling in newborn lambs ,thermoregulation in newborn lambs ,Lamb mortality ,cold exposure - Abstract
Lamb mortality is a serious source of economic loss to the sheep industry. Surveys have shown that up to 50% of the post-natal losses can be due either directly or indirectly to cold exposure. This thesis examines various ways of improving thermoregulation in the newborn lamb. Emphasis was placed on the need to develop methods which required little or no capital expenditure. This was essential if the most promising techniques were to be adopted in the less favoured hill environments. The effectiveness of the various treatments was measured by subjecting each newborn lamb to a standard cold exposure in a progressively cooled water bath. Various components of heat production and heat loss were recorded during this test. The cold resistance of each lamb was defined as the time taken for rectal temperature to fall by approximately 4C. The capacity for non-shivering thermogenesis (NST) was also measured in some lambs by recording the calorigenic response to noradrenaline administration at a therinoneutral temperature. Shearing of the pregnant ewe 4 weeks before parturition increased the cold resistance of the newborn lambs. Components of both heat production and heat loss were influenced by this treatment. Short periods of acute cold exposure imposed daily for the last 12 days of pregnancy enhanced NST in the newborn lamb. Further work showed that all these results were influenced by ewe age, breed, foetal number and year effects. The implications of this, and possible mechanisms, were discussed. Genetic selection for cold resistance in Scottish Blackface lambs started at ABRO in 1980. Preliminary results of this experiment are reported here. The response was asymmetrical. Selection for high cold resistance produced considerably more progress than selection for low cold resistance. Heritability of cold resistance estimated from line divergence was 0.17+0.09. Heritability for increasing cold resistance was 0.27+0.13 and for decreasing cold resistance it was 0.01+0.16. The large number of lambs tested during this experiment (594) allowed a detailed investigation of various components which influenced water bath performance. Single lambs had a greater we ight-specif ic heat production and reduced heat loss compared to twins. Female lambs were better able to thermoregulate than males. Cold resistance tended to decline with age but increase with liveweight. The genetic and phenotypic relationships between cold resistance and components of heat production and heat loss were analysed. The implications of these findings with regard to thermoregulation and hence lamb mortality in the field situation were discussed.
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- 1983
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8. Predicted costs and benefits of eradicating BVDV from Ireland
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Stott Alistair W, Humphry Roger W, Gunn George J, Higgins Isabella, Hennessy Thia, O’Flaherty Joe, and Graham David A
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BVDV ,Eradication ,Cost benefit analysis ,Veterinary medicine ,SF600-1100 - Abstract
Abstract Bovine viral diarrhoea virus (BVDV) causes an economically important endemic disease (BVD) of cattle in Ireland and worldwide. Systematic eradication by detection and removal of infectious (BVDV carrier) cattle has been successful in several regions. We therefore assessed the benefits (disease losses avoided) and costs (testing and culling regime) of a potential eradication programme in Ireland. Published bio-economic models of BVDV spread in beef suckler herds and dairy herds were adapted to estimate potential benefits of eradication in Ireland. A simple model of BVDV spread in beef finisher herds was devised to estimate the benefits of eradication in this sector. A six year eradication programme consisting of 5 inter-related virological and serological testing programmes is outlined and costed. We found that the annualised benefits of BVDV eradication in Ireland exceeded the costs by a factor of 5 in the beef suckler sector and a factor of 14 in the dairy sector. Corresponding payback periods were 1.2 and 0.5 years respectively. These results highlight the significant economic impact of BVDV on the Irish cattle industry and suggest a clear economic benefit to eradication using the proposed approach. This type of cost-benefit analysis is considered an essential prerequisite prior to undertaking an eradication campaign of this magnitude.
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- 2012
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9. A framework for estimating society’s economic welfare following the introduction of an animal disease: the case of Johne’s disease
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Barratt, Alyson S., Arnoult, Matthieu H., Ahmadi, Bouda Vosough, Rich, Karl M., Gunn, George J., and Stott, Alistair W.
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Animal diseases are global issues affecting the productivity and financial profitability of affected farms. Johne’s disease is distributed on farms worldwide and is an endemic contagious bacterial infection in ruminants caused by Mycobacterium avium subspecies paratuberculosis. In cattle, the clinical disease manifests itself as chronic enteritis resulting in reduced production, weight loss, and eventually death. Johne’s disease is prevalent in the UK, including Scotland. Direct costs and losses associated with Johne’s disease have been estimated in previous research, confirming an important economic impact of the disease in UK herds. Despite this, the distributional impact of Johne’s disease among milk consumers and producers in Scotland has not been estimated. In this paper, we evaluate the change in society’s economic welfare, namely to dairy producers (i.e. infected and uninfected herds) and milk consumers in Scotland induced by the introduction of Johne’s disease in the national Scottish dairy herd. At the national-level, we conclude that the economic burden falls mainly on producers of infected herds and, to a lesser extent, milk consumers, while producers of uninfected herds benefit from the presence of Johne’s. An infected producer’s loss per cow is approximately two times larger in magnitude than that of an uninfected producer’s gain. Such economic welfare estimates are an important comparison of the relative costs of national herd prevalence and the wider economic welfare implications for both producers and consumers. This is particularly important from a policy, public good, cost sharing, and human health perspective. The economic welfare framework presented in this paper can be applied to other diseases to examine the relative burden of society’s economic welfare of alternative livestock disease scenarios. In addition, the sensitivity analysis evaluates uncertainty in economic welfare given limited data and uncertainty in the national herd prevalence, and other input parameters, associated with Johne’s disease in Scotland. Therefore, until the prevalence of Johne’s is better understood, the full economic cost to Scottish dairy herds remains uncertain but in the meantime the sensitivity analysis evaluates the robustness of economic welfare to such uncertainties.
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- 2018
10. Framework for Estimating Indirect Costs in Animal Health Using Time Series Analysis
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Barratt, Alyson S., primary, Rich, Karl M., additional, Eze, Jude I., additional, Porphyre, Thibaud, additional, Gunn, George J., additional, and Stott, Alistair W., additional
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- 2019
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11. Financial Vulnerability of Dairy Farms Challenged by Johne's Disease to Changes in Farm Payment Support
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Shrestha, Shailesh, primary, Vosough Ahmadi, Bouda, additional, Barratt, Alyson S., additional, Thomson, Steven G., additional, and Stott, Alistair W., additional
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- 2018
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12. Correction: A framework for estimating society's economic welfare following the introduction of an animal disease: The case of Johne's disease
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Barratt, Alyson S., primary, Arnoult, Matthieu H., additional, Ahmadi, Bouda Vosough, additional, Rich, Karl M., additional, Gunn, George J., additional, and Stott, Alistair W., additional
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- 2018
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13. Challenges and priorities for modelling livestock health and pathogens in the context of climate change
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Özkan, Şeyda, primary, Vitali, Andrea, additional, Lacetera, Nicola, additional, Amon, Barbara, additional, Bannink, André, additional, Bartley, Dave J., additional, Blanco-Penedo, Isabel, additional, de Haas, Yvette, additional, Dufrasne, Isabelle, additional, Elliott, John, additional, Eory, Vera, additional, Fox, Naomi J., additional, Garnsworthy, Phil C., additional, Gengler, Nicolas, additional, Hammami, Hedi, additional, Kyriazakis, Ilias, additional, Leclère, David, additional, Lessire, Françoise, additional, Macleod, Michael, additional, Robinson, Timothy P., additional, Ruete, Alejandro, additional, Sandars, Daniel L., additional, Shrestha, Shailesh, additional, Stott, Alistair W., additional, Twardy, Stanislaw, additional, Vanrobays, Marie-Laure, additional, Ahmadi, Bouda Vosough, additional, Weindl, Isabelle, additional, Wheelhouse, Nick, additional, Williams, Adrian G., additional, Williams, Hefin W., additional, Wilson, Anthony J., additional, Østergaard, Søren, additional, and Kipling, Richard P., additional
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- 2016
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14. Escherichia coli O157 control on cattle farms: A structural equation model applied to survey data
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Toma, Luiza, Low, J.C., Vosough, Ahmadi B., Matthews, Louise, and Stott, Alistair W.
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Health Economics and Policy ,attitudes and behaviour ,E. coli O157 on-farm control ,food and beverages ,structural equation modelling ,UK cattle farmers ,respiratory tract diseases ,information and knowledge - Abstract
The paper uses structural equation modelling applied to survey data to test determinants’ influence on UK cattle farmers’ intentions towards Escherichia coli O157 control. Results suggest that farmers more likely to be willing to control Escherichia coli O157 are those who think that farmers are most responsible for controlling disease; whose income depends more on opening farms to public; with stronger disease control attitudes; who were affected by outbreaks; with better knowledge and more frequent information access; with stronger perceptions towards practicality of biosecurity measures; who use health plans; who think farmers are main beneficiaries of controlling disease; whose farm is dairy rather than beef.
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- 2014
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15. Reducing the impact of sclerotinia disease by determining optimum crop rotations using dynamic programming
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Vosough Ahmadi, Bouda, Burnett, Fiona J., Young, Caroline S., McQuilken, Mark P., and Stott, Alistair W.
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Productivity Analysis ,dynamic programming ,sclerotinia ,crop rotation ,optimisation ,Risk and Uncertainty ,fungi ,Farm Management ,food and beverages ,Crop Production/Industries ,agriculture - Abstract
Sclerotinia rot is a disease caused by the fungus Sclerotinina sclerotiorum which affects a wide range of crops and causes major yield and economic losses. Crop rotation is an important strategy for minimising losses. A dynamic programming (DP) model was developed to study the trade-offs between state of the land, severity of sclerotinia and financial impacts as a result of different cropping decisions. Results showed that rotation and treatment against sclerotinia was financially justified yet permitted intensive yet sustainable production of susceptible food crops in the long-run. Allocation of even a small proportion of cropping decisions to break crops coupled with treatments in the rotation mitigated long-term build-up of sclerotia in land. However in the short-run, high proportions and high frequencies of cropping decisions need to be either allocated to break crops or treated-susceptible crops in order to avoid the disease and to generate profit. Results showed that DP methodology provides a useful framework to explore the trade-offs between crop rotation and growing high value susceptible crops in the long- and short-term in relation to plant diseases in arable agriculture that are at the heart of sustainable food production and land use.
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- 2013
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16. Predicted effects of CAP reform on management of Great Britain’s extensive sheep farms
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Stott, Alistair W., Vosough Ahmadi, Bouda, Milne, Catherine E., Morgan-Davies, Claire, Dwyer, Cathy M., Kupiec-Teahan, Beata, Ringrose, Sian, Phillips, Kate, and Waterhouse, A.
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Productivity Analysis - Abstract
A bio-economic linear program based on data from 20 commercial extensive sheep farms was used to predict the effects on aspects of farm management of response to CAP reform in Great Britain. The objective function of the LP was to maximise gross margin while meeting ewe energy requirements from farm grown or purchased feeds on a monthly basis throughout the farming year. Three farms were constrained by availability of home-grown grass and thus contracted under a subsidy free scenario. Just one farm justified expansion using extra labour purchased at £5/hour. The other farms remained at current flock sizes using existing unpaid labour. However, all farms adjusted their grazing regime according to the balance of land types available. These adjustments varied from month to month, reflecting the complex and dynamic pattern of interactions between resource demand and supply throughout the farming year. The implied shifts in land use have implications for the environment and for animal welfare.
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- 2010
17. Impacts of labour on interactions between economics and animal welfare in extensive sheep farms
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Vosough Ahmadi, Bouda, Dwyer, Cathy M., Erhard, H.W., Morgan-Davies, Claire, Waterhouse, A., Milne, Catherine E., Kupiec-Teahan, Beata, Ringrose, Sian, Goddard, Pete, Phillips, Kate, and Stott, Alistair W.
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Sheep ,Linear Programme ,Labour ,animal diseases ,Livestock Production/Industries ,Animal Welfare - Abstract
This study quantified interactions between animal welfare and farm profitability in British extensive sheep farming systems. Qualitative welfare assessment methodology was used to assess welfare from the animal's perspective in 20 commercial extensive sheep farms and to estimate labour demand for welfare, based on the assessed welfare scores using data collected from farm inventories. The estimated labour demand was then used as a coefficient in a linear program based model to establish the gross margin maximising farm management strategy for given farm situations, subject to constraints that reflected current resource limitations including labour supply. Regression analysis showed a significant relationship between the qualitative welfare assessment scores and labour supply on the inventoried farms but there was no significant relationship between current gross margin and assessed welfare scores. However, to meet the labour demand of the best welfare score, a reduction in flock size and in the average maximum farm gross margin was often required. These findings supported the hypothesis that trade-offs between animal welfare and farm profitability are necessary in providing maximum animal welfare via on-farm labour and sustainable British extensive sheep farming systems.
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- 2010
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18. Labour Management for Profit and Welfare in Extensive Sheep Farming
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Kirwan, Susanne, Thomson, Kenneth J., Edwards, Ian E., and Stott, Alistair W.
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Labour, Sheep, Linear Programming, Animal Welfare, Livestock Production/Industries, Q10, Q19, Y1 - Abstract
Sheep welfare is an emerging topic in research and food marketing, and recent studies suggest that farm labour is a key factor for both animal welfare and productivity in extensive sheep farming systems, although little research has been done into labour utilisation in these systems. This paper reports field data collection on two commercial farms and the use of a linear programming (LP) model to link labour economics and animal welfare analysis. The model maximises the number of ewes to clooked after over the lambing period, when constrained by labour availability for various key tasks and by a pre-determined level of sheep welfare. The results show a trade-off between welfare level and labour input per sheep. Dropping tasks with less significant welfare and productivity consequences is an effective way of increasing carrying capacity (from 977 ewes/shepherd to 1428), as is working longer hours (1174 ewes/shepherd) or only doing the legal minimum of welfare checking (labour reduced from 0.68 min/ewe to 0.44 min/ewe) . The field data suggest that farmers currently provide high welfare, and that, despite much time spent away from the flock (e.g. driving), they spend a large amount of time (39% of total) with their sheep.
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- 2009
19. Measuring the benefits of farm animal health
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Stott, Alistair W., Brulisauer, Franz, Fraser, Fiona, and Gunn, George J.
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viruses ,animal diseases ,Livestock Production/Industries, Biosecurity, BVD, Economic Impact - Abstract
A methodology is described to establish the relative financial benefit of farm animal disease prevention (biosecurity). This methodology is demonstrated using the example of bovine viral diarrhoea virus (BVDV) incursion on beef suckler farms in Scotland. A random sample of 276 herds was taken and a proportion of young stock on each farm tested for previous exposure to BVDV. There was evidence that 0.4 of herds had been exposed over one year prior to sampling. All herds completed a questionnaire about their biosecurity practices. The influence of these practices on relative risk of BVDV was subjected to a Chi squared test and practices ranked accordingly. Most important risk factors were animal buying in strategy, farm size and a single farm boundary. The economic benefit/disbenefit of these strategies was assessed using a bio-economic model of a 10-year BVDV epidemic. Expected output losses due to BVDV infection and risk were affected by biosecurity strategy and by level of biosecurity threat. The implications of these findings for animal health strategy at farm and regional level are discussed.
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- 2009
20. Measuring the economic benefits and costs of Bluetongue virus outbreak and control strategies in Scotland
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Fofana, Abdulai, Toma, Luiza, Moran, Dominic, Gunn, George J., and Stott, Alistair W.
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bluetongue virus, epidemiology, direct and indirect costs, benefit analysis, Risk and Uncertainty - Abstract
This paper provides an ex-ante economic analysis, comparing six alternative control strategies for the eradication of Bluetongue virus 8 against five incursion scenarios in cattle and sheep populations. The economic analysis assumes a common baseline unavoidable cost of public and private measures that together contribute to prevention of incursion of BTV8 into Scotland. These costs continue over the five year horizon of this analysis regardless of whether a BTV8 epidemic ensues in Scotland and their total present value was found to be approximately £141m over the 5year period. The benefit of this investment is the costs of a BTV8 outbreak avoided; which depends on the time, location and nature of the incursion, on the control strategies adopted to counter each incursion, on the persistence of the incursion and on the opportunities to mitigate the damage. Specific variations in all these aspects were explored. The benefit-cost ratios were ranked within each incursion scenario to evaluate the efficiency of control outlays. Although the economic model found that benefit-cost ratios were greater than 1 for all interventions strategies examined, the control strategy option with 100% vaccination and protection zone set at Scottish Borders were economically preferable. This implies that if avoided this control option would deliver the greatest benefit from investment in baseline prevention costs. However, in terms of outbreak losses, this vaccination strategy was always most costly. On the other hand, the control strategy with 50% vaccination and all Scotland as a protection zone often provides the lowest benefits in all control options examined
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- 2009
21. Evaluation of approaches to control of Maedi-Visna disease of sheep using a Markov chain simulation model for a range of typical British Flocks
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Stott, Alistair W., Milne, Catherine E., and Gunn, George J.
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viruses ,animal diseases ,Livestock Production/Industries, Maedi-Visna, Model, Markov Chain, Sheep, Control - Abstract
An epidemiological model is described that closely mimicked results of a published serological study of natural transmission of Maedi-Visna virus in a low ground flock of sheep. We adjusted parameters in the model from this baseline to explore the possible implications for the control of Maedi-Visna virus in typical British flocks. On closed hill farms, low probability of effective contact was most critical for control. In open low ground flocks, purchasing accredited replacements eliminated disease spread, otherwise flock size was the most important factor governing flock prevalence. Results highlighted the need for more epidemiological information about Maedi-Visna, particularly whether hill farms act as a hidden reservoir of virus or reduce the impact of this disease on the industry by providing a source of clean replacements
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- 2009
22. EVALUATING EXTENSIVE SHEEP FARMING SYSTEMS
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Stott, Alistair W., Vosough Ahmadi, Bouda, Morgan-Davies, Claire, Dwyer, Cathy M., Goddard, Pete, Phillips, Kate, Milne, Catherine E., Kupiec-Teahan, Beata, Ringrose, Sian, and Waterhouse, Tony
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Livestock Production/Industries, Extensive, Sheep, Economics, LP - Abstract
Data from each of 5 commercial, extensive sheep farms in Cumbria, UK were used as parameters in a linear program (LP) representing labour and grazing management in such farming systems. The LP maximised ewe enterprise gross margin subject to constraints dictated by the labour availability and land types on each farm. Under the assumptions used, labour availability and price restricted ewe numbers well below those observed in practice on 2 farms i.e. land resources were adequate for the farming system practiced. On two other farms stocking levels and hence returns were limited by the availability of forage and hence feed input prices relative to output. On one farm, greater grassland productivity was the key determinant of system performance. It was concluded that a holistic systems approach was needed to properly evaluate these farming systems in terms of their potential contribution to animal welfare, land use, profit and hence their sustainability
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- 2009
23. A Structural Equation Model of the Factors Influencing British Consumers’ Behaviour towards Animal Welfare
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Toma, Luiza, McVittie, Alistair, Hubbard, Carmen, and Stott, Alistair W.
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consumers’ behaviour ,Agricultural and Food Policy ,structural equation models ,animal welfare - Abstract
Results of national and pan-European consumer surveys and the growth in the demand for so-called “animal friendly” food products suggest that consumers within the European Union show a high level of concern for the welfare of farm animals. This paper analyses the determinants of British consumers’ behaviour towards animal welfare using structural equation models (SEM) with observed and latent variables. SEM is a statistical technique for testing and estimating relationships amongst variables, using a combination of statistical data and qualitative causal assumptions. We used a data set collected in 2005 through face-to-face interviews of 654 consumers in England. We analysed the range of statements in existing literature on consumers’ behaviour towards animal welfare and then used SEM to test and estimate these a priori determinants of behaviour. The models include observed and latent variables representing behaviour (stated purchases of free-range and organic chicken meat) and its underlying determinants (attitudes towards animal welfare and socio-economic factors). The models have an adequate overall fit to the data. The significance tests for the structural equation model on free-range chicken meat purchasing behaviour show socioeconomic group, education, attitudes towards animal welfare, reasons for buying chicken meat, access to information on animal welfare issues, number of children and price as significant determinants. All of these (with the exception of reasons for buying chicken meat) were found significant also in the model on organic chicken meat purchasing behaviour.
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- 2009
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24. Trade-offs between conflicting animal welfare concerns and cow replacement strategy in out-wintering Scottish suckler herds
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Vosough Ahmadi, Bouda, Morgan, Colin A., and Stott, Alistair W.
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dynamic programming ,Beef cow ,Livestock Production/Industries ,economics ,animal welfare - Abstract
Since decoupling of the CAP, many Scottish suckler cow farms are facing financial difficulties. In response, many farmers are out-wintering extensively managed suckler cows to minimise production costs. These systems are of animal welfare concern. A range of trade-offs between animal welfare indicators and between animal welfare and farm profitability can be identified. A Dynamic Programming (DP) model was developed to study these trade-offs. Two herds were modelled assuming their feeding regimes were either low (LHERD) or high (HHERD). The objective of the DP was to maximise the expected net margin from a current cow and its successors over an infinite time horizon. Preliminary results showed that the rate of voluntary culling was higher in HHERD than in LHERD. Animals in HHERD had shorter life expectancy. The expected net present value was 58% lower in LHERD than HHERD (-£41.5 and - £24.3 respectively). These results suggest a heavier culling rate and shorter longevity for animals in HHERD that compromises animal welfare. Also HHERD had a greater implied stocking density than LHERD. This increase of the cows’ population may adversely affect the environment. The presented model provides some of the basic information required to explore some of the trade-offs between farm profit, animal welfare and the environment.
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- 2009
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25. ANIMAL WELFARE AND ECONOMIC OPTIMISATION OF FARROWING SYSTEMS
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Vosough Ahmadi, Bouda, Baxter, Emma M., Stott, Alistair W., Lawrence, Alistair, and Edwards, Sandra
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Livestock Production/Industries, alternative housing systems, animal welfare, economic optimisation, farrowing systems, pig - Published
- 2009
26. A PARTIAL EQUILIBRIUM MODEL OF THE LINKAGES BETWEEN ANIMAL WELFARE, TRADE AND THE ENVIRONMENT IN SCOTLAND
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Toma, Luiza, Ashworth, Cheryl J., and Stott, Alistair W.
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Pig Welfare, Trade, Environment, Scotland, Partial Equilibrium Model., Agricultural and Food Policy, Environmental Economics and Policy, Research Methods/ Statistical Methods, Q18, Q50 - Abstract
This research analyses the impacts of a scientific advance that improves animal welfare, upon the environment and trade in Scotland using partial equilibrium (PE) modelling. The science improves pig neonatal survival through improved (high fibre) sow diets used before mating. Our model simulates the effects of animal welfare changes on the pig production systems (pig meat) and further on trade flows (trade in pig meat) and environment (water and air pollution). We consider two animal welfare simulation scenarios, namely the status quo – no animal welfare change as regards pig neonatal mortality (baseline scenario) and the case of improving pig neonatal survival (alternative scenario) and compare the impacts on trade and environment between the two scenarios during the simulation horizon 2008-2015. The results show that the increase in animal welfare has a lower impact on the environment in the alternative scenario compared to the baseline scenario (by about 6% at the end of the simulation horizon) and a positive impact on net trade in the alternative scenario compared to the baseline scenario (by about 13% at the end of the simulation horizon).
- Published
- 2008
27. Winners and losers from Johne’s disease eradication from the Scottish dairy herd: a Markov-Chain simulation
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Weldegebriel, Habtu T., Gunn, George J., and Stott, Alistair W.
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food and beverages ,Johne's, eradication programme, economic welfare effects, economic surplus, I180 ,health care economics and organizations - Abstract
In this paper, we evaluated the welfare effects of a hypothetical programme of Johne's disease eradication from the Scottish dairy herd on different stakeholders in the domestic milk market. We undertook the evaluation using a Markov-Chain simulation and applying an economic welfare analysis which takes into consideration the effects of an eradication programme on product price, on output quantity, on cost and on milk yield for given levels of supply and demand elasticities. We found that, following the eradication of the disease, milk yield per cow increased for all herd sizes in Scotland whereas price and unit cost of milk production fell. Consequently, milk consumers gained around £14.3 million in discounted economic surplus and producers with infected herds around £13.4 million whereas producers with uninfected herds lost around £10.7 million in discounted surplus. The gain in surplus made by consumers and owners of infected herds, however, more than made up for the loss in surplus made by owners of un-infected herds. Therefore, on balance, Scotland gained a net economic surplus of £17 million from the programme.
- Published
- 2008
28. Management of reproduction in Scottish suckler herds
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Stott, Alistair W., Gunn, George J., and Varo Barbudo, Antonio
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Beef cow, fertility, economics, management, Livestock Production/Industries - Abstract
A survey of the management of reproduction on 66 Scottish suckler herds calving in spring 2003 was analysed using multiple regression. The predicted mean value of suckled calves produced was £237/cow (SE 1.8). The regression coefficients of the predictors was 0.74 (0.05), 15 (3.9) and 248 (16.5) for date of first calving, average number of 21-day calving periods (calving spread) and proportion of cows barren respectively. Improving each predictor by 1 SD had the combined potential to improve predicted calf value by £64/cow, over 80% of the current typical gross margin for this type of enterprise. Bull care had a significant influence on calving spread and number of biosecurity measures taken had a positive influence on the proportion of cows barren. However, length of breeding season had no significant impact on the above predictors. Reproductive performance was highly variable and indicators were considerably poorer than published targets. It was concluded that farmers in this sample were not managing their herds for high reproductive performance and output as often advocated. This result suggests considerable scope for improved private and public benefits from the management of reproduction in this type of beef production system.
- Published
- 2008
29. Managing animal health status information in the cattle market
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Rat-Aspert, Olivier, Weldegebriel, Habtu T., Stott, Alistair W., and Fourichon, C.
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Asymmetric information ,Livestock Production/Industries ,Third-Party certification ,Disease Externalities - Abstract
The paper analyses the problem of information in the cattle market, particularly as it relates to the status of animal health, and discusses ways to limit it with the view to improving social surplus. Against this background, it aims to achieve three major objectives. Firstly, it describes the ways of improving the level of information through such schemes as Conventional Warranties and Third Party Certification and the different choices made by sellers and buyers in the presence of these schemes. Secondly, it studies the various ways by which these schemes make an impact on equilibria in different markets (i.e., the pooling market and the premium market), and, consequently, on the social surplus. Thirdly, it identifies the necessary conditions for a third party/public decision-maker to increase social surplus and reduce the negative externality caused by disease by managing and supporting Third Party Certification. The paper shows that product certification and product warranty cannot coexist because product warranty is suboptimal. It also shows that certification, and a possible supporting of certification or animal testing does not necessarily improve the safety of the trade.
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- 2008
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30. Optimisation methods for assisting policy decisions on endemic diseases
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Stott, Alistair W.
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Economics, decision analysis, optimisation, modelling, endemic disease, knowledge transfer, Health Economics and Policy - Abstract
Endemic disease of animals is an economic problem as it deprives humans of scarce resources that might otherwise satisfy human wants. Optimisation methods identify the strategies that minimise this economic problem. Given the potentially vast extent of the deprivation, not only in terms of lost wealth but also in terms of animal welfare, human health and environmental damage, this subject offers great benefits to decision-makers from the individual farm to the global level. This paper uses examples to illustrate the basic economic principles concerned. It shows how these principles may be extended to deal with current limitations in theory and practice. Lack of data is a common problem that may be dealt with by using computer simulation, theoretical approaches or the experiential knowledge of the decision-makers themselves. The latter method has the added advantage of greatly assisting with the difficult problem of effectively communicating the results of decision analysis to the decision-maker. In most situations the decision-maker will need to strike a balance between conflicting objectives such as short term profit and long term environmental damage (sustainability). This problem will require a wider perspective, which is greatly facilitated by collaboration between economists and scientists. The paper illustrates ways in which this has been done by using decision analysis methods to focus on the decision rather than the disease. The conclusions highlight priority areas for future research and development in this area. Topics include the contribution of endemic disease control to sustainable development, endemic disease eradication, capturing wider implications such as animal welfare and food safety, accounting for variation in rational decision making and dealing with risk.
- Published
- 2006
31. Systems Approaches to Animal Disease Surveillance and Resource Allocation: Methodological Frameworks for Behavioral Analysis
- Author
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Rich, Karl M., primary, Denwood, Matthew J., additional, Stott, Alistair W., additional, Mellor, Dominic J., additional, Reid, Stuart W. J., additional, and Gunn, George J., additional
- Published
- 2013
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
32. A Structural Equation Model of the Factors Influencing British Consumers' Behaviour toward Animal Welfare
- Author
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Toma, Luiza, primary, McVittie, Alistair, additional, Hubbard, Carmen, additional, and Stott, Alistair W., additional
- Published
- 2011
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
33. Longevity
- Author
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Logue, David N., primary, Stott, Alistair W., additional, Santarossa, John, additional, Gunn, George J., additional, and Offer, Jill E., additional
- Published
- 2004
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
34. Dynamic programming to investigate financial impacts of mastitis control decisions in milk production systems
- Author
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YALCIN, CENGIZ, primary and STOTT, ALISTAIR W., additional
- Published
- 2000
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
35. Predicted costs and benefits of eradicating BVDV from Ireland.
- Author
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Stott, Alistair W., Humphry, Roger W., Gunn, George J., Higgins, Isabella, Hennessy, Thia, O'Flaherty, Joe, and Graham, David A.
- Subjects
- *
COST effectiveness , *BOVINE viral diarrhea virus , *BOVINE viral diarrhea , *CATTLE disease prevention , *PREVENTION - Abstract
Bovine viral diarrhoea virus (BVDV) causes an economically important endemic disease (BVD) of cattle in Ireland and worldwide. Systematic eradication by detection and removal of infectious (BVDV carrier) cattle has been successful in several regions. We therefore assessed the benefits (disease losses avoided) and costs (testing and culling regime) of a potential eradication programme in Ireland. Published bio-economic models of BVDV spread in beef suckler herds and dairy herds were adapted to estimate potential benefits of eradication in Ireland. A simple model of BVDV spread in beef finisher herds was devised to estimate the benefits of eradication in this sector. A six year eradication programme consisting of 5 inter-related virological and serological testing programmes is outlined and costed. We found that the annualised benefits of BVDV eradication in Ireland exceeded the costs by a factor of 5 in the beef suckler sector and a factor of 14 in the dairy sector. Corresponding payback periods were 1.2 and 0.5 years respectively. These results highlight the significant economic impact of BVDV on the Irish cattle industry and suggest a clear economic benefit to eradication using the proposed approach. This type of cost-benefit analysis is considered an essential prerequisite prior to undertaking an eradication campaign of this magnitude. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2013
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
36. An adaptive decision-making aid for dairy cow replacement
- Author
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Kennedy, John O.S., primary and Stott, Alistair W., additional
- Published
- 1993
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
37. Dynamic programming to investigate financial impacts of mastitis control decisions in milk production systems
- Author
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*, CENGIZ YALCIN, , and STOTT, ALISTAIR W.
- Abstract
An adaptive stochastic dynamic programming model was used to solve the optimum replacement decision problem for the dairy cow under a range of alternative mastitis control procedures. The model predicted that reducing milk yield losses and somatic cell count penalties by using milking machine test, post-milking teat disinfection and dry cow therapy added approximately £4, £10 and £13 respectively to an original annuity equivalent net present value for the replacement heifer of £286. Assuming that these procedures also reduced involuntary culling due to mastitis by 50% added £8·90 to the annuity. This latter figure indicated that an important part of the benefit of mastitis control procedures might come from a reduction in the culling risk of persistent clinical cases. We concluded that the strength of the dynamic programming model in this context was that it provided an integrated evaluation of the various impacts of each alternative mastitis procedure in the long term, which is essential for correct economic evaluation of mastitis.
- Published
- 2000
38. Trade-offs between conflicting animal welfare concerns and cow replacement strategy in out-wintering Scottish suckler herds
- Author
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Bouda Vosough Ahmadi, Morgan, Colin A., and Stott, Alistair W.
- Subjects
Livestock Production/Industries, Beef cow, economics, dynamic programming, animal welfare ,Beef cow, economics, dynamic programming, animal welfare, Livestock Production/Industries - Abstract
Since decoupling of the CAP, many Scottish suckler cow farms are facing financial difficulties. In response, many farmers are out-wintering extensively managed suckler cows to minimise production costs. These systems are of animal welfare concern. A range of trade-offs between animal welfare indicators and between animal welfare and farm profitability can be identified. A Dynamic Programming (DP) model was developed to study these trade-offs. Two herds were modelled assuming their feeding regimes were either low (LHERD) or high (HHERD). The objective of the DP was to maximise the expected net margin from a current cow and its successors over an infinite time horizon. Preliminary results showed that the rate of voluntary culling was higher in HHERD than in LHERD. Animals in HHERD had shorter life expectancy. The expected net present value was 58% lower in LHERD than HHERD (-£41.5 and - £24.3 respectively). These results suggest a heavier culling rate and shorter longevity for animals in HHERD that compromises animal welfare. Also HHERD had a greater implied stocking density than LHERD. This increase of the cows’ population may adversely affect the environment. The presented model provides some of the basic information required to explore some of the trade-offs between farm profit, animal welfare and the environment.
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