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The birth mass function of neutron stars encodes rich information about supernova explosions, double star evolution, and properties of matter under extreme conditions. To date, it has remained poorly constrained by observations, however. Applying probabilistic corrections to account for mass accreted by recycled pulsars in binary systems to mass measurements of 90 neutron stars, we find that the birth masses of neutron stars can be described by a unimodal distribution that smoothly turns on at $1.1 M_{\odot}$, peaks at $1.27 M_{\odot}$, before declining as a steep power law. Such a ``turn-on" power-law distribution is strongly favoured against the widely-adopted empirical double-Gaussian model at the $3 \sigma$ level. The power-law shape may be inherited from the initial mass function of massive stars, but the relative dearth of massive neutron stars implies that single stars with initial masses greater than $\approx 18 M_{\odot}$ do not form neutron stars, in agreement with the absence of massive red supergiant progenitors to supernovae., Comment: Published in Nature Astronomy on 26 Feb 2025. This is the authors' version of the paper; 55 pages, 14 figures, 4 tables

Pulsars are rapidly rotating neutron stars that emit radiation across the electromagnetic spectrum, from radio to gamma-rays. We use the rapid binary population synthesis suite COMPAS to model the Galactic population of canonical pulsars. We account for both radio and gamma-ray selection effects, as well as the motion of pulsars in the Galactic potential due to natal kicks. We compare our models to the catalogs of pulsars detected in the radio, and those detected in gamma-rays by Fermi, and find broad agreement with both populations. We reproduce the observed ratio of radio-loud to radio-quiet gamma-ray pulsars. We further examine the possibility of low spin-down luminosity (Edot) pulsars emitting weak, unpulsed gamma-ray emission and attempt to match this with recent stacking results. We demonstrate that the apparent correlation between the latitude of a pulsar and its Edot arises due to natal kicks imparted to pulsars at birth, assuming that all pulsars are born in the Galactic disk., Comment: Submitted to the Publications of the Astronomical Society of Australia. Contains 11 figures, 6 tables

Gravitational waves (GWs) have revealed surprising properties of binary black hole (BBH) populations, but there is still mystery surrounding how these compact objects evolve. We apply Bayesian inference and an efficient method to calculate the BBH merger rates in the Shark host galaxies, to determine the combination of COMPAS parameters that outputs a population most like the GW sources from the LVK transient catalogue. For our COMPAS models, we calculate the likelihood with and without the dependence on the predicted number of BBH merger events. We find strong correlations between hyper-parameters governing the specific angular momentum (AM) of mass lost during mass transfer, the mass-loss rates of Wolf-Rayet stars via winds and the chemically homogeneous evolution (CHE) formation channel. We conclude that analysing the marginalised and unmarginalised likelihood is a good indicator of whether the population parameters distribution and number of observed events reflect the LVK data. In doing so, we see that the majority of the models preferred in terms of the population-level parameters of the BBHs greatly overpredict the number of events we should have observed to date. Looking at the smaller number of models which perform well with both likelihoods, we find that those with no CHE, AM loss occurring closer to the donor during the first mass-transfer event, and/or higher rates of mass-loss from Wolf-Rayet winds are generally preferred by current data. We find these conclusions to be robust to our choice of selection criteria., Comment: 27 pages, 19 figures, 6 tables, Accepted by MNRAS

As the catalogue of gravitational-wave transients grows, several entries appear "exceptional" within the population. Tipping the scales with a total mass of $\approx 150 M_\odot$, GW190521 likely contained black holes in the pair-instability mass gap. The event GW190814, meanwhile, is unusual for its extreme mass ratio and the mass of its secondary component. A growing model-building industry has emerged to provide explanations for such exceptional events, and Bayesian model selection is frequently used to determine the most informative model. However, Bayesian methods can only take us so far. They provide no answer to the question: does our model provide an adequate explanation for the data? If none of the models we are testing provide an adequate explanation, then it is not enough to simply rank our existing models - we need new ones. In this paper, we introduce a method to answer this question with a frequentist $p$-value. We apply the method to different models that have been suggested to explain GW190521: hierarchical mergers in active galactic nuclei and globular clusters. We show that some (but not all) of these models provide adequate explanations for exceptionally massive events like GW190521., Comment: 8 pages, 3 figures, 1 table

We present a rapid parameter estimation framework for compact binary coalescence (CBC) signals observed by the LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA (LVK) detector network. The goal of our framework is to enable optimal source localization of binary neutron star (BNS) signals in low latency, as well as improve the overall scalability of full CBC parameter estimation analyses. Our framework is based on the reduced order quadrature (ROQ) technique, and resolves its shortcomings by utilizing multiple ROQ bases in a single parameter estimation run. We have also developed sets of compact ROQ bases for various waveform models, IMRPhenomD, IMRPhenomPv2, IMRPhenomPv2$\_$NRTidalv2, and IMRPhenomXPHM. We benchmark our framework with hundreds of simulated observations of BNS signals by the LIGO-Virgo detector network, and demonstrate that it provides accurate and unbiased estimates on BNS source location, with a median analysis time of $6$ minutes. The median searched area is reduced by around 30$\%$ compared to estimates produced by BAYESTAR: from $21.8\,\mathrm{deg^2}$ to $16.6\,\mathrm{deg^2}$. Our framework also enables detailed parameter estimation taking into account gravitational-wave higher multipole moments, the tidal deformation of colliding objects, and detector calibration errors of amplitude and phase with the time scale of hours. Our rapid parameter estimation technique has been implemented in one of the LVK parameter estimation engines, BILBY, and is being employed by the automated parameter estimation analysis of the LVK alert system., Comment: 19 pages, 9 figures

Massive binaries are vital sources of various transient processes, including gravitational-wave mergers. However, large uncertainties in the evolution of massive stars, both physical and numerical, present a major challenge to the understanding of their binary evolution. In this paper, we upgrade our interpolation-based stellar evolution code METISSE to include the effects of mass changes, such as binary mass transfer or wind-driven mass loss, not already included within the input stellar tracks. METISSE's implementation of mass loss (applied to tracks without mass loss) shows excellent agreement with the SSE fitting formulae and with detailed MESA tracks, except in cases where the mass transfer is too rapid for the star to maintain equilibrium. We use this updated version of METISSE within the binary population synthesis code BSE to demonstrate the impact of varying stellar evolution parameters, particularly core overshooting, on the evolution of a massive (25M$_\odot$ and 15M$_\odot$) binary system with an orbital period of 1800 days. Depending on the input tracks, we find that the binary system can form a binary black hole or a black hole-neutron star system, with primary(secondary) remnant masses ranging between 4.47(1.36)M$_\odot$ and 12.30(10.89)M$_\odot$, and orbital periods ranging from 6 days to the binary becoming unbound. Extending this analysis to a population of isolated binaries uniformly distributed in mass and orbital period, we show that the input stellar models play an important role in determining which regions of the binary parameter space can produce compact binary mergers, paving the way for predictions for current and future gravitational-wave observatories., Comment: 19 pages, 14 figures, accepted for publication in MNRAS

Gravitational waves from merging binary black holes can be used to shed light on poorly understood aspects of massive binary stellar evolution, such as the evolution of massive stars (including their mass-loss rates), the common envelope phase, and the rate at which massive stars form throughout the cosmic history of the Universe. In this paper we explore the \emph{correlated} impact of these phases on predictions for the merger rate and chirp mass distribution of merging binary black holes, aiming to identify possible degeneracies between model parameters. In many of our models, a large fraction (more than 70% of detectable binary black holes) arise from the chemically homogeneous evolution scenario; these models tend to over-predict the binary black hole merger rate and produce systems which are on average too massive. Our preferred models favour enhanced mass-loss rates for helium rich Wolf--Rayet stars, in tension with recent theoretical and observational developments. We identify correlations between the impact of the mass-loss rates of Wolf--Rayet stars and the metallicity evolution of the Universe on the rates and properties of merging binary black holes. Based on the observed mass distribution, we argue that the $\sim 10\%$ of binary black holes with chirp masses greater than $40$ M$_\odot$ (the maximum predicted by our models) are unlikely to have formed through isolated binary evolution, implying a significant contribution (> 10%) from other formation channels such as dense star clusters or active galactic nuclei. Our models will enable inference on the uncertain parameters governing binary evolution in the near future., Comment: 21 pages, 17 figures. Accepted for publication in MNRAS

Neutron stars receive velocity kicks at birth in supernovae. Those formed in electron-capture supernovae from super asymptotic giant branch stars -- the lowest mass stars to end their lives in supernovae -- may receive significantly lower kicks than typical neutron stars. Given that many massive stars are members of wide binaries, this suggests the existence of a population of low-mass ($1.25 < M_\mathrm{psr} / $M$_\odot < 1.3$), wide ($P_\mathrm{orb} \gtrsim 10^{4}$\,day), eccentric ($e \sim 0.7$), unrecycled ($P_\mathrm{spin} \sim 1$\,s) binary pulsars. The formation rate of such binaries is sensitive to the mass range of (effectively) single stars leading to electron capture supernovae, the amount of mass lost prior to the supernova, and the magnitude of any natal kick imparted on the neutron star. We estimate that one such binary pulsar should be observable in the Milky Way for every 10,000 isolated pulsars, assuming that the width of the mass range of single stars leading to electron-capture supernovae is $\lesssim 0.2$\,M$_\odot$, and that neutron stars formed in electron-capture supernovae receive typical kicks less than 10\,km s$^{-1}$. We have searched the catalog of observed binary pulsars, but find no convincing candidates that could be formed through this channel, consistent with this low predicted rate. Future observations with the Square Kilometre Array may detect this rare sub-class of binary pulsar and provide strong constraints on the properties of electron-capture supernovae and their progenitors., Comment: Accepted to MNRAS. 7 pages, 2 figures

The spins of merging binary black holes offer insights into their formation history. Recently it has been argued that in isolated binary evolution of two massive stars the firstborn black hole is slowly rotating, whilst the progenitor of the second-born black hole can be tidally spun up if the binary is tight enough. Naively, one might therefore expect that only the less massive black hole in merging binaries exhibits non-negligible spin. However, if the mass ratio of the binary is "reversed" (typically during the first mass transfer episode), it is possible for the tidally spun up second-born to become the more massive black hole. We study the properties of such mass-ratio reversed (MRR) binary black hole mergers using a large set of 560 population synthesis models. We find that the more massive black hole is formed second in $\gtrsim 70\%$ of binary black holes observable by LIGO, Virgo, and KAGRA for most model variations we consider, with typical total masses $\gtrsim 20$ M$_{\odot}$ and mass ratios $q = m_2 / m_1 \sim 0.7$ (where $m_1 > m_2$). The formation history of these systems typically involves only stable mass transfer episodes. The second-born black hole has non-negligible spin ($\chi > 0.05$) in up to $25\%$ of binary black holes, with among those the more (less) massive black hole spinning in $0\%$--$80\%$ ($20\%$--$100\%$) of cases, varying greatly in our models. We discuss our models in the context of several observed gravitational-wave events and the observed mass ratio - effective spin correlation., Comment: All code and data publicly available at https://github.com/FloorBroekgaarden/MRR_Project

The two neutron star-black hole mergers (GW200105 and GW200115) observed in gravitational waves by advanced LIGO and Virgo, mark the first ever discovery of such binaries in nature. We study these two neutron star-black hole systems through isolated binary evolution, using a grid of population synthesis models. Using both mass and spin observations (chirp mass, effective spin and remnant spin) of the binaries, we probe their different possible formation channels in different metallicity environments. Our models only support LIGO data when assuming the black hole is non spinning. Our results show a strong preference that GW200105 and GW200115 formed from stars with sub-solar metallicities $Z\lesssim 0.005$. Only two metal-rich ($Z=0.02$) models are in agreement with GW200115. We also find that chirp mass and remnant spins jointly aid in constraining the models, whilst the effective spin parameter does not add any further information. We also present the observable (i.e. post selection effects) median values of spin and mass distribution from all our models, which maybe used as a reference for future mergers. Further, we show that the remnant spin parameter distribution exhibits distinguishable features in different neutron star-black hole sub-populations. We find that non-spinning, first born black holes dominate significantly the merging neutron star-black hole population, ensuring electromagnetic counterparts to such mergers a rare affair., Comment: accepted (MNRAS), comments welcome

We investigate the relationship between the global properties of star clusters and their double black hole (DBH) populations. We use the code {\tt NBODY6} to evolve a suite of star cluster models with an initial mass of $\mathcal{O}(10^4)$M$_\odot$ and varying initial parameters. We conclude that cluster metallicity plays the most significant role in determining the lifespan of a cluster, while the initial half-mass radius is dominant in setting the rate of BH exchange interactions in the central cluster regions. We find that the mass of interacting BHs, rather than how frequently their interactions with other BHs occur, is more crucial in the thermal expansion and eventual evaporation of the cluster. We formulate a novel approach to easily quantify the degree of BH-BH dynamical activity in each model. We report 12 in-cluster and three out-of-cluster (after ejection from the cluster) DBH mergers, of different types (inspiral, eccentric, hierarchical) across the ten $N$-body models presented. Our DBH merger efficiency is 3--4$\times10^{-5}$ mergers per M$_\odot$. We note the cluster initial density plays the most crucial role in determining the number of DBH mergers, with the potential presence of a transitional density point (between 1.2-3.8$\times10^3$M$_\odot$/pc$^3$) below which the number of in-cluster mergers increases with cluster density and above which the increased stellar density acts to prevent in-cluster BH mergers. The importance of the history of dynamical interactions within the cluster in setting up the pathways to ejected DBH mergers is also discussed. Our findings show a broad match with observed LIGO-Virgo DBH mergers., Comment: Submitted to MNRAS, 30 pages

A population of more than 50 binary black hole mergers has now been observed by the LIGO and Virgo gravitational-wave observatories. While neutron stars are known to have large velocities associated with impulsive kicks imparted to them at birth in supernovae, whether black holes receive similar kicks, and of what magnitude, remains an open question. Recently, Callister et al. (2021) analysed the binary black hole population under the hypothesis that they were all formed through isolated binary evolution and claimed that large black hole kicks (greater than 260 km/s at 99% confidence) were required for the spin distribution of merging binary black holes to match observations. Here we highlight that a key assumption made by Callister et al. (2021) -- that all secondary black holes can be tidally spun up -- is not motivated by physical models, and may lead to a bias in their estimate of the magnitudes of black hole kicks. We make only minor changes to the Callister et al. (2021) model, accounting for a population of wider merging binaries where tidal synchronisation is ineffective. We show that this naturally produces a bimodal spin distribution for secondary black holes, and that the spin-orbit misalignments observed in the binary black hole population can be explained by more typical black hole kicks of order 100 km/s, consistent with kicks inferred from Galactic X-ray binaries containing black holes. We conclude that the majority of the binary black hole population is consistent with forming through isolated binary evolution., Comment: 8 pages, 3 figures, accepted for publication in ApJ Letters

Short gamma-ray bursts are believed to be produced by both binary neutron star (BNS) and neutron star-black hole (NSBH) mergers. We use current estimates for the BNS and NSBH merger rates to calculate the fraction of observable short gamma-ray bursts produced through each channel. This allows us to constrain merger rates of BNS to $\mathcal{R}_{\rm{BNS}}=384^{+431}_{-213}{\rm{Gpc}^{-3} \rm{yr}^{-1}}$ ($90\%$ credible interval), a $16\%$ decrease in the rate uncertainties from the second LIGO--Virgo Gravitational-Wave Transient Catalog, GWTC-2. Assuming a top-hat emission profile with a large Lorentz factor, we constrain the average opening angle of gamma-ray burst jets produced in BNS mergers to $\approx 15^\circ$. We also measure the fraction of BNS and NSBH mergers that produce an observable short gamma-ray burst to be $0.02^{+0.02}_{-0.01}$ and $0.01 \pm 0.01$, respectively and find that $\gtrsim 40\%$ of BNS mergers launch jets (90\% confidence). We forecast constraints for future gravitational-wave detections given different modelling assumptions, including the possibility that BNS and NSBH jets are different. With $24$ BNS and $55$ NSBH observations, expected within six months of the LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA network operating at design sensitivity, it will be possible to constrain the fraction of BNS and NSBH mergers that launch jets with $10\%$ precision. Within a year of observations, we can determine whether the jets launched in NSBH mergers have a different structure than those launched in BNS mergers and rule out whether $\gtrsim 80\%$ of binary neutron star mergers launch jets. We discuss the implications of future constraints on understanding the physics of short gamma-ray bursts and binary evolution., Comment: Accepted in Physical Review D: 13 pages, 5 figures

Making the most of the rapidly increasing population of gravitational-wave detections of black hole (BH) and neutron star (NS) mergers requires comparing observations with population synthesis predictions. In this work we investigate the combined impact from the key uncertainties in population synthesis modelling of the isolated binary evolution channel: the physical processes in massive binary-star evolution and the star formation history as a function of metallicity, $Z$, and redshift $z, \mathcal{S}(Z,z)$. Considering these uncertainties we create 560 different publicly available model realizations and calculate the rate and distribution characteristics of detectable BHBH, BHNS, and NSNS mergers. We find that our stellar evolution and $\mathcal{S}(Z,z)$ variations can impact the predicted intrinsic and detectable merger rates by factors $10^2$-$10^4$. We find that BHBH rates are dominantly impacted by $\mathcal{S}(Z,z)$ variations, NSNS rates by stellar evolution variations and BHNS rates by both. We then consider the combined impact from all uncertainties considered in this work on the detectable mass distribution shapes (chirp mass, individual masses and mass ratio). We find that the BHNS mass distributions are predominantly impacted by massive binary-star evolution changes. For BHBH and NSNS we find that both uncertainties are important. We also find that the shape of the delay time and birth metallicity distributions are typically dominated by the choice of $\mathcal{S}(Z,z)$ for BHBH, BHNS and NSNS. We identify several examples of robust features in the mass distributions predicted by all 560 models, such that we expect more than 95% of BHBH detections to contain a BH $\gtrsim 8\,\rm{M}_{\odot}$ and have mass ratios $\lesssim 4$. Our work demonstrates that it is essential to consider a wide range of allowed models to study double compact object merger rates and properties., Comment: 25 pages of which 12 are (rainbow) figures. Main results: Fig 2, 4, 5 and 6. Code/results publicly available at https://github.com/FloorBroekgaarden/Double-Compact-Object-Mergers. Comments welcome

The evolution of massive stars is the basis of several astrophysical investigations, from predicting gravitational-wave event rates to studying star-formation and stellar populations in clusters. However, uncertainties in massive star evolution present a significant challenge when accounting for these models' behaviour in stellar population studies. In this work, we present a comparison between five published sets of stellar models from the BPASS, BoOST, Geneva, MIST, and PARSEC simulations at near-solar metallicity. The different sets of stellar models have been computed using slightly different physical inputs in terms of mass-loss rates and internal mixing properties. Moreover, these models also employ various pragmatic methods to overcome the numerical difficulties that arise due to the presence of density inversions in the outer layers of stars more massive than 40 M$_\odot$. These density inversions result from the combination of inefficient convection in the low-density envelopes of massive stars and the excess of radiative luminosity to the Eddington luminosity. We find that the ionizing radiation released by the stellar populations can change by up to 18 percent, the maximum radial expansion of a star can differ between 100-1600 R$_\odot$, and the mass of the stellar remnant can vary up to 20 M$_\odot$ between the five sets of simulations. We conclude that any attempts to explain observations that rely on the use of models of stars more massive than 40 M$_\odot$ should be made with caution., Comment: added core mass information for the Geneva models, accepted for publication in MNRAS

The proximity to the Eddington luminosity has been attributed as the cause of several observed effects in massive stars. Computationally, if the luminosity carried through radiation exceeds the local Eddington luminosity in the low-density envelopes of massive stars, it can result in numerical difficulties, inhibiting further computation of stellar models. This problem is exacerbated by the fact that very few massive stars are observed beyond the Humphreys-Davidson limit, the same region in the Hertzsprung-Russell diagram where the aforementioned numerical issues relating to the Eddington luminosity occur in stellar models. One-dimensional stellar evolution codes have to use pragmatic solutions to evolve massive stars through this computationally difficult phase. In this work, we quantify the impact of these solutions on the evolutionary properties of massive stars. We used the stellar evolution code MESA with commonly used input parameters for massive stellar models to compute the evolution of stars in the initial mass range of 10-110 M$_\odot$ at one-tenth of solar metallicity. We find that numerical difficulties in stellar models with initial masses greater than or equal to 30 M$_\odot$ cause these models to fail before the end of core helium burning. Recomputing these models using the same physical inputs but three different pragmatic solutions to treat the numerical instability, we find that the maximum radial expansion achieved by stars can vary by up to 2000 R$_\odot$, while the remnant mass of the stars can vary by up to 14 M$_\odot$ between the sets. These differences can have implications on studies such as binary population synthesis., Comment: Revised version; Accepted for publication in A&A

Compact Object Mergers: Population Astrophysics and Statistics (COMPAS; https://compas.science) is a public rapid binary population synthesis code. COMPAS generates populations of isolated stellar binaries under a set of parametrized assumptions in order to allow comparisons against observational data sets, such as those coming from gravitational-wave observations of merging compact remnants. It includes a number of tools for population processing in addition to the core binary evolution components. COMPAS is publicly available via the github repository https://github.com/TeamCOMPAS/COMPAS/, and is designed to allow for flexible modifications as evolutionary models improve. This paper describes the methodology and implementation of COMPAS. It is a living document which will be updated as new features are added to COMPAS; the current document describes COMPAS v02.21.00., Comment: Code publicly available via https://compas.science . Minor updates to match version accepted to ApJS

Observations of binary pulsars and pulsars in globular clusters suggest that at least some pulsars must receive weak natal kicks at birth. If all pulsars received strong natal kicks above \unit[50]{\kms}, those born in globular clusters would predominantly escape, while wide binaries would be disrupted. On the other hand, observations of transverse velocities of isolated radio pulsars indicate that only $5\pm2\%$ have velocities below \unit[50]{\kms}. We explore this apparent tension with rapid binary population synthesis modelling. We propose a model in which supernovae with characteristically low natal kicks (e.g., electron-capture supernovae) only occur if the progenitor star has been stripped via binary interaction with a companion. We show that this model naturally reproduces the observed pulsar speed distribution and without reducing the predicted merging double neutron star yield. We estimate that the zero-age main sequence mass range for non-interacting progenitors of electron-capture supernovae should be no wider than ${\approx}0.2 M_\odot$., Comment: 7 pages including figures, tables, and references. 3 figures including 5 pdfs, and 1 table

Mergers of black hole-neutron star (BHNS) binaries have now been observed by GW detectors with the recent announcement of GW200105 and GW200115. Such observations not only provide confirmation that these systems exist, but will also give unique insights into the death of massive stars, the evolution of binary systems and their possible association with gamma-ray bursts, $r$-process enrichment and kilonovae. Here we perform binary population synthesis of isolated BHNS systems in order to present their merger rate and characteristics for ground-based GW observatories. We present the results for 420 different model permutations that explore key uncertainties in our assumptions about massive binary star evolution (e.g. mass transfer, common-envelope evolution, supernovae), and the metallicity-specific star formation rate density, and characterize their relative impacts on our predictions. We find intrinsic local BHNS merger rates spanning $\mathcal{R}_{\rm{m}}^0 \approx 4$-$830\,\rm{Gpc}^{-3}\,\rm{yr}^{-1}$ for our full range of assumptions. This encompasses the rate inferred from recent BHNS GW detections, and would yield detection rates of $\mathcal{R}_{\rm{det}} \approx 1$-$180\, \rm{yr}^{-1}$ for a GW network consisting of LIGO, Virgo and KAGRA at design sensitivity. We find that the binary evolution and metallicity-specific star formation rate density each impact the predicted merger rates by order $\mathcal{O}(10)$. We also present predictions for the GW detected BHNS merger properties and find that all 420 model variations predict that $\lesssim 5\%$ of the BHNS mergers have BH masses $\gtrsim 18\,M_{\odot}$, total masses $ \gtrsim 20\,M_{\odot}$, chirp masses $\gtrsim 5.5\,M_{\odot}$, mass ratios $ \gtrsim 12$ or $\lesssim 2$. Moreover, we find that massive NSs $\gtrsim 2\,M_{\odot}$ are expected to be commonly detected in BHNS mergers in almost all our model variations., Comment: 38 pages, 18 figures, accepted to MNRAS. The authors welcome suggestions and feedback. All data and code to reproduce the results in this paper are publicly available

Binaries comprised of a neutron star (NS) and a black hole (BH) have so far eluded observations as pulsars and with gravitational waves (GWs). We model the formation and evolution of these NS+BH binaries - including pulsar evolution - using the binary population synthesis code COMPAS. We predict the presence of a total of 50-2000 binaries containing a pulsar and a BH (PSR+BHs) in the Galactic field. We find the population observable by the next generation of radio telescopes, represented by the SKA and MeerKAT, current (LIGO/Virgo) and future (LISA) GW detectors. We conclude that the SKA will observe 1-80 PSR+BHs, with 0-4 binaries containing millisecond pulsars. MeerKAT is expected to observe 0-40 PSR+BH systems. Future radio detections of NS+BHs will constrain uncertain binary evolution processes such as BH natal kicks. We show that systems in which the NS formed first (NSBH) can be distinguished from those where the BH formed first (BHNS) by their pulsar and binary properties. We find 40% of the LIGO/Virgo observed NS+BHs from a Milky-Way like field population will have a chirp mass $\geq 3.0$ M$_\odot$. We estimate the spin distributions of NS+BHs with two models for the spins of BHs. The remnants of BHNS mergers will have a spin of $\sim$0.4, whilst NSBH merger remnants can have a spin of $\sim$0.6 or $\sim$0.9 depending on the model for BH spins. We estimate that approximately 25-1400 PSR+BHs will be radio alive whilst emitting GWs in the LISA frequency band, raising the possibility of joint observation by the SKA and LISA., Comment: 29 pages, accepted for publication in MNRAS COMPAS data available https://zenodo.org/record/4659385#.YH0iypMzau4

Radio pulsar observations probe the lives of Galactic double neutron-star (DNS) systems while gravitational waves enable us to study extragalactic DNS in their final moments. By combining measurements from radio and gravitational-wave astronomy, we seek to gain a more complete understanding of DNS from formation to merger. We analyse the recent gravitational-wave binary neutron star mergers GW170817 and GW190425 in the context of other DNS known from radio astronomy. By employing a model for the birth and evolution of DNS, we measure the mass distribution of DNS at birth, at mid-life (in the radio), and at death (in gravitational waves). We consider the hypothesis that the high-mass gravitational-wave event GW190425 is part of a subpopulation formed through unstable case BB mass transfer, which quickly merge in $\sim 10-100~\mathrm{Myr}$. We find mild evidence to support this hypothesis and that GW190425 is not a clear outlier from the radio population as previously claimed. If there are fast-merging binaries, we estimate that they constitute $8-79\%$ of DNS at birth (90% credibility). We estimate the typical delay time between the birth and death of fast-merging binaries to be $\approx 5-401~\mathrm{Myr}$ (90% credibility). We discuss the implications for radio and gravitational-wave astronomy., Comment: 16 pages, 10 figures, 3 tables

In the era of advanced electromagnetic and gravitational wave detectors, it has become increasingly important to effectively combine and study the impact of stellar evolution on binaries and dynamical systems of stars. Systematic studies dedicated to exploring uncertain parameters in stellar evolution are required to account for the recent observations of the stellar populations. We present a new approach to the commonly used Single-Star Evolution (SSE) fitting formulae, one that is more adaptable: Method of Interpolation for Single Star Evolution (METISSE). It makes use of interpolation between sets of pre-computed stellar tracks to approximate evolution parameters for a population of stars. We have used METISSE with detailed stellar tracks computed by the Modules for Experiments in Stellar Astrophysics (MESA), Bonn Evolutionary Code (BEC) and Cambridge STARS code. METISSE better reproduces stellar tracks computed using the STARS code compared to SSE, and is on average three times faster. Using stellar tracks computed with MESA and BEC, we apply METISSE to explore the differences in the remnant masses, the maximum radial expansion, and the main-sequence lifetime of massive stars. We find that different physical ingredients used in the evolution of stars, such as the treatment of radiation dominated envelopes, can impact their evolutionary outcome. For stars in the mass range 9 to 100 M$_\odot$, the predictions of remnant masses can vary by up to 20 M$_\odot$, while the maximum radial expansion achieved by a star can differ by an order of magnitude between different stellar models., Comment: Accepted for publication in MNRAS

The LIGO/Virgo collaborations recently announced the detection of a likely binary neutron star merger, GW190425. The total mass of GW190425 is significantly larger than the masses of Galactic double neutron stars known through radio astronomy. This suggests that GW190425 formed differently from Galactic double neutron stars. We hypothesize that GW190425 formed via unstable "case BB" mass transfer. According to this hypothesis, the progenitor of GW190425 was a binary consisting of a neutron star and a ${\sim} 4-5 {M_\odot}$ helium star, which underwent a common-envelope process. Following the supernovae of the helium star core, a tight, eccentric, double neutron star was formed, which merged in ${\lesssim}$ 10 Myr. The helium star progenitor may explain the unusually large mass of GW190425, while the short time to merger may explain why we do not see similar systems in radio. In order to test this hypothesis, we measure the eccentricity of GW190425 using publicly available LIGO/Virgo data. We constrain the eccentricity at 10 Hz to be $e \leq 0.007$ with $90\%$ confidence. This result provides no evidence for or against the unstable mass transfer scenario because the binary is likely to have circularized to $e\lesssim10^{-4}$ by the time it entered the LIGO/Virgo band. Future detectors operating in lower frequency bands will enable us to discern the formation channel of mergers similar to GW190425 using eccentricity measurements., Comment: 5 pages, 3 figures, Accepted for publication in MNRAS Letters

A class of optical transients known as Luminous Red Novae (LRNe) have recently been associated with mass ejections from binary stars undergoing common-envelope evolution. We use the population synthesis code COMPAS to explore the impact of a range of assumptions about the physics of common-envelope evolution on the properties of LRNe. In particular, we investigate the influence of various models for the energetics of LRNe on the expected event rate and light curve characteristics, and compare with the existing sample. We find that the Galactic rate of LRNe is $\sim 0.2$ yr$^{-1}$, in agreement with the observed rate. In our models, the luminosity function of Galactic LRNe covers multiple decades in luminosity and is dominated by signals from stellar mergers, consistent with observational constraints from iPTF and the Galactic sample of LRNe. We discuss how observations of the brightest LRNe may provide indirect evidence for the existence of massive ($> 40$ M$_\odot$) red supergiants. Such LRNe could be markers along the evolutionary pathway leading to the formation of double compact objects. We make predictions for the population of LRNe observable in future transient surveys with the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope and the Zwicky Transient Facility. In all plausible circumstances, we predict a selection-limited observable population dominated by bright, long-duration events caused by common envelope ejections. We show that the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope will observe $20$--$750$ LRNe per year, quickly constraining the luminosity function of LRNe and probing the physics of common-envelope events., Comment: 13 pages, 8 Figures. MNRAS Accepted

We have implemented prescriptions for modelling pulsars in the rapid binary population synthesis code COMPAS. We perform a detailed analysis of the double neutron star (DNS) population, accounting for radio survey selection effects. The surface magnetic field decay timescale (${\sim}1000$\,Myr) and mass scale (${\sim}0.02$\,M$_\odot$) are the dominant uncertainties in our model. Mass accretion during common envelope evolution plays a non-trivial role in recycling pulsars. We find a best-fit model that is in broad agreement with the observed Galactic DNS population. Though the pulsar parameters (period and period derivative) are strongly biased by radio selection effects, the observed orbital parameters (orbital period and eccentricity) closely represent the intrinsic distributions. The number of radio observable DNSs in the Milky Way at present is about 2500 in our model, corresponding to approximately 10\% of the predicted total number of DNSs in the galaxy. Using our model calibrated to the Galactic DNS population, we make predictions for DNS mergers observed in gravitational waves. The DNS chirp mass distribution varies from 1.1M$_\odot$ to 2.1M$_\odot$ and the median is found to be 1.14\,M$_\mathrm{\odot}$. The expected effective spin $\chi_\mathrm{eff}$ for isolated DNSs is $\lesssim$0.03 from our model. We predict that 34\% of the current Galactic isolated DNSs will merge within a Hubble time, and have a median total mass of 2.7\,M$_\mathrm{\odot}$. Finally, we discuss implications for fast radio bursts and post-merger remnant gravitational-waves., Comment: 26 pages, Accepted for publication by MNRAS

We estimate the properties of the double neutron star (DNS) population that will be observable by the planned space-based interferometer LISA. By following the gravitational radiation driven evolution of DNSs generated from rapid population synthesis of massive binary stars, we estimate that around 35 DNSs will accumulate a signal-to-noise ratio above 8 over a four-year LISA mission. The observed population mainly comprises Galactic DNSs (94 per cent), but detections in the LMC (5 per cent) and SMC (1 per cent) may also be expected. The median orbital frequency of detected DNSs is expected to be 0.8 mHz, and many of them will be eccentric (median eccentricity of $0.11$). The orbital properties will provide insights into DNS progenitors and formation channels. LISA is expected to localise these DNSs to a typical angular resolution of $2^\circ$, with best-constrained sources localised to a few arcminutes. These localisations may allow neutron star natal kick magnitudes to be constrained through the Galactic distribution of DNSs, and make it possible to follow up the sources with radio pulsar searches. However, LISA is also expected to resolve $\sim 10^4$ Galactic double white dwarfs, many of which may have binary parameters that resemble DNSs; we discuss how the combined measurement of binary eccentricity, chirp mass, and sky location may aid the identification of a DNS. We expect the best-constrained DNSs to have eccentricities known to a few parts in a thousand, chirp masses measured to better than 1 per cent fractional uncertainty, and sky localisation at the level of a few arcminutes., Comment: Accepted by the Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society, added comparison with two more binary evolution prescriptions

We study the formation of coalescing binary black holes via the evolution of isolated field binaries that go through the common envelope phase in order to obtain the combined distributions of the main observables of Advanced LIGO. We used a hybrid technique that combines the parametric binary population synthesis code COMPAS with detailed binary evolution simulations performed with the MESA code. We then convolved our binary evolution calculations with the redshift- and metallicity-dependent star-formation rate and the selection effects of gravitational-wave detectors to obtain predictions of observable properties. By assuming efficient angular momentum transport, we are able to present a model that is capable of simultaneously predicting the three main gravitational-wave observables: the effective inspiral spin parameter $\chi_{eff}$, the chirp mass $M_{chirp}$, and the cosmological redshift of merger $z_{merger}$. We find an excellent agreement between our model and the ten events from the first two advanced detector observing runs. We make predictions for the third observing run O3 and for Advanced LIGO design sensitivity. We expect around 80% of events with $\chi_{eff} < 0.1$, while the remaining 20% of events with $\chi_{eff} \ge 0.1$ are split into ~10% with $M_{chirp} < 15$ M$_\odot$ and ~10% with $M_{chirp} \ge 15$ M$_\odot$. In conclusion, the favorable comparison of the existing LIGO/Virgo observations with our model predictions gives support to the idea that the majority, if not all of the observed mergers, originate from the evolution of isolated binaries. The first-born black hole has negligible spin because it lost its envelope after it expanded to become a giant star, while the spin of the second-born black hole is determined by the tidal spin up of its naked helium star progenitor by the first-born black hole companion after the binary finished the common-envelope phase., Comment: Accepted for publication in A&A on January 21th 2020, 19 pages, 9 figures

We investigate the impact of uncertainty in the metallicity-specific star formation rate over cosmic time on predictions of the rates and masses of double compact object mergers observable through gravitational waves. We find that this uncertainty can change the predicted detectable merger rate by more than an order of magnitude, comparable to contributions from uncertain physical assumptions regarding binary evolution, such as mass transfer efficiency or supernova kicks. We statistically compare the results produced by the COMPAS population synthesis suite against a catalog of gravitational-wave detections from the first two Advanced LIGO and Virgo observing runs. We find that the rate and chirp mass of observed binary black hole mergers can be well matched under our default evolutionary model with a star formation metallicity spread of $0.39$ dex around a mean metallicity $\left$ that scales with redshift $z$ as $\left=0.035 \times 10^{-0.23 z}$, assuming a star formation rate of $0.01 \times (1+z)^{2.77} / (1+((1+z)/2.9)^{4.7}) \, \rm{M}_\odot$ Mpc$^{-3}$ yr$^{-1}$. Intriguingly, this default model predicts that 80\% of the approximately one binary black hole merger per day that will be detectable at design sensitivity will have formed through isolated binary evolution with only dynamically stable mass transfer, i.e., without experiencing a common-envelope event., Comment: 22 pages, 17 figures. Data from the COMPAS simulation will be publicly available

The mass and spin distributions of compact binary gravitational-wave sources are currently uncertain due to complicated astrophysics involved in their formation. Multiple sub-populations of compact binaries representing different evolutionary scenarios may be present among sources detected by Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo. In addition to hierarchical modelling, unmodelled methods can aid in determining the number of sub-populations and their properties. In this paper, we apply Gaussian mixture model clustering to 1000 simulated gravitational-wave compact binary sources from a mixture of five sub-populations. Using both mass and spin as input parameters, we determine how many binary detections are needed to accurately determine the number of sub-populations and their mass and spin distributions. In the most difficult case that we consider, where two sub-populations have identical mass distributions but differ in their spin, which is poorly constrained by gravitational-wave detections, we find that ~ 400 detections are needed before we can identify the correct number of sub-populations.

Gravitational-wave observations of double compact object (DCO) mergers are providing new insights into the physics of massive stars and the evolution of binary systems. Making the most of expected near-future observations for understanding stellar physics will rely on comparisons with binary population synthesis models. However, the vast majority of simulated binaries never produce DCOs, which makes calculating such populations computationally inefficient. We present an importance sampling algorithm, STROOPWAFEL, that improves the computational efficiency of population studies of rare events, by focusing the simulation around regions of the initial parameter space found to produce outputs of interest. We implement the algorithm in the binary population synthesis code COMPAS, and compare the efficiency of our implementation to the standard method of Monte Carlo sampling from the birth probability distributions. STROOPWAFEL finds $\sim$25-200 times more DCO mergers than the standard sampling method with the same simulation size, and so speeds up simulations by up to two orders of magnitude. Finding more DCO mergers automatically maps the parameter space with far higher resolution than when using the traditional sampling. This increase in efficiency also leads to a decrease of a factor $\sim$3-10 in statistical sampling uncertainty for the predictions from the simulations. This is particularly notable for the distribution functions of observable quantities such as the black hole and neutron star chirp mass distribution, including in the tails of the distribution functions where predictions using standard sampling can be dominated by sampling noise., Comment: Accepted. Data and scripts to reproduce main results is publicly available. The code for the STROOPWAFEL algorithm will be made publicly available. Early inquiries can be addressed to the lead author

A population of binary black hole mergers has now been observed in gravitational waves by Advanced LIGO and Virgo. The masses of these black holes appear to show evidence for a pile-up between $30$--$45$ $M_\odot$ and a cut-off above $\sim 45$ $M_\odot$. One possible explanation for such a pile-up and subsequent cut-off are pulsational pair-instability supernovae (PPISNe) and pair-instability supernovae (PISNe) in massive stars. We investigate the plausibility of this explanation in the context of isolated massive binaries. We study a population of massive binaries using the rapid population synthesis software COMPAS, incorporating models for PPISNe and PISNe. Our models predict a maximum black hole mass of $40$ $M_\odot$. We expect $\sim 10$\% of all binary black hole mergers at redshift z = 0 will include at least one component that went through a PPISN (with mass $30$--$40$ $M_\odot$), constituting $\sim 20$--$50$\% of binary black hole mergers observed during the first two observing runs of Advanced LIGO and Virgo. Empirical models based on fitting the gravitational-wave mass measurements to a combination of a power law and a Gaussian find a fraction too large to be associated with PPISNe in our models. The rates of PPISNe and PISNe track the low metallicity star formation rate, increasing out to redshift $z = 2$. These predictions may be tested both with future gravitational-wave observations and with observations of superluminous supernovae., Comment: 16 pages, 9 figures, accepted to ApJ, data available at www.compas.science

Double neutron stars (DNSs) have been observed as Galactic radio pulsars, and the recent discovery of gravitational waves from the DNS merger GW170817 adds to the known DNS population. We perform rapid population synthesis of massive binary stars and discuss model predictions, including formation rates, mass distributions, and delay time distributions. We vary assumptions and parameters of physical processes such as mass transfer stability criteria, supernova kick distributions, remnant mass distributions and common-envelope energetics. We compute the likelihood of observing the orbital period-eccentricity distribution of the Galactic DNS population under each of our population synthesis models, allowing us to quantitatively compare the models. We find that mass transfer from a stripped post-helium-burning secondary (case BB) onto a neutron star is most likely dynamically stable. We also find that a natal kick distribution composed of both low (Maxwellian $\sigma=30\rm~km~s^{-1}$) and high ($\sigma=265\rm~km~s^{-1}$) components is preferred over a single high-kick component. We find that the observed DNS mass distribution can place strong constraints on model assumptions., Comment: 23 pages, 10 main figures, 2 tables, 3 figures in appendices; typos added, references added; Formation rates corrected; Table 1 has an extra column

The properties of the population of merging binary black holes encode some of the uncertain physics of the evolution of massive stars in binaries. The binary black hole merger rate and chirp mass distribution are being measured by ground-based gravitational-wave detectors. We consider isolated binary evolution and explore how accurately the physical model can be constrained with such observations by applying the Fisher information matrix to the merging black hole population simulated with the rapid binary population synthesis code COMPAS. We investigate variations in four COMPAS parameters: common envelope efficiency, kick velocity dispersion, and mass loss rates during the luminous blue variable and Wolf--Rayet stellar evolutionary phases. We find that 1000 observations would constrain these model parameters to a fractional accuracy of a few percent. Given the empirically determined binary black hole merger rate, we can expect gravitational-wave observations alone to place strong constraints on the physics of stellar and binary evolution within a few years., Comment: 12 pages, 9 figures; version accepted by Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society

The first direct detections of gravitational waves from merging binary black holes open a unique window into the binary black hole formation environment. One promising environmental signature is the angular distribution of the black hole spins; systems formed through dynamical interactions among already-compact objects are expected to have isotropic spin orientations whereas binaries formed from pairs of stars born together are more likely to have spins preferentially aligned with the binary orbital angular momentum. We consider existing gravitational wave measurements of the binary effective spin, the best-measured combination of spin parameters, in the four likely binary black hole detections GW150914, LVT151012, GW151226, and GW170104. If binary black hole spin magnitudes extend to high values we show that the data exhibit a $2.4\sigma$ ($0.015$ odds ratio) preference for an isotropic angular distribution over an aligned one. By considering the effect of 10 additional detections, we show that such an augmented data set would enable in most cases a preference stronger than $5\sigma$ ($2.9 \times 10^{-7}$ odds ratio). The existing preference for either an isotropic spin distribution or low spin magnitudes for the observed systems will be confirmed (or overturned) confidently in the near future., Comment: 32 pages, 9 figures, code and document at https://github.com/farr/AlignedVersusIsoSpin/ ; updated to use custom LaTeX class to include figures in PDF

As we enter the era of gravitational wave astronomy, we are beginning to collect observations which will enable us to explore aspects of astrophysics of massive stellar binaries which were previously beyond reach. In this paper we describe COMPAS (Compact Object Mergers: Population Astrophysics and Statistics), a new platform to allow us to deepen our understanding of isolated binary evolution and the formation of gravitational-wave sources. We describe the computational challenges associated with their exploration, and present preliminary results on overcoming them using Gaussian process regression as a simulation emulation technique., Comment: Accepted for Proceedings of IAU Symposium 325

During its first 4 months of taking data, Advanced LIGO has detected gravitational waves from two binary black hole mergers, GW150914 and GW151226, along with the statistically less significant binary black hole merger candidate LVT151012. We use our rapid binary population synthesis code COMPAS to show that all three events can be explained by a single evolutionary channel -- classical isolated binary evolution via mass transfer including a common envelope phase. We show all three events could have formed in low-metallicity environments (Z = 0.001) from progenitor binaries with typical total masses $\gtrsim 160 M_\odot$, $\gtrsim 60 M_\odot$ and $\gtrsim 90 M_\odot$, for GW150914, GW151226, and LVT151012, respectively., Comment: Published in Nature Communications

Binary black holes may form both through isolated binary evolution and through dynamical interactions in dense stellar environments. The formation channel leaves an imprint on the alignment between the black hole spins and the orbital angular momentum. Gravitational waves from these systems directly encode information about the spin--orbit misalignment angles, allowing them to be (weakly) constrained. Identifying sub-populations of spinning binary black holes will inform us about compact binary formation and evolution. We simulate a mixed population of binary black holes with spin--orbit misalignments modelled under a range of assumptions. We then develop a hierarchical analysis and apply it to mock gravitational-wave observations of these populations. Assuming a population with dimensionless spin magnitudes of $\chi = 0.7$, we show that tens of observations will make it possible to distinguish the presence of subpopulations of coalescing binary black holes based on their spin orientations. With $100$ observations it will be possible to infer the relative fraction of coalescing binary black holes with isotropic spin directions (corresponding to dynamical formation in our models) with a fractional uncertainty of $\sim 40\%$. Meanwhile, only $\sim 5$ observations are sufficient to distinguish between extreme models---all binary black holes either having exactly aligned spins or isotropic spin directions., Comment: 12 pages, 9 figures. Updated to match version published in MNRAS as 10.1093/mnras/stx1764

The recent advanced LIGO detections of gravitational waves from merging binary black holes enhance the prospect of exploring binary evolution via gravitational-wave observations of a population of compact-object binaries. In the face of uncertainty about binary formation models, model-independent inference provides an appealing alternative to comparisons between observed and modelled populations. We describe a procedure for clustering in the multi-dimensional parameter space of observations that are subject to significant measurement errors. We apply this procedure to a mock data set of population-synthesis predictions for the masses of merging compact binaries convolved with realistic measurement uncertainties, and demonstrate that we can accurately distinguish subpopulations of binary neutron stars, binary black holes, and mixed neutron star -- black hole binaries with tens of observations., Comment: Replacing with published version; minor typo fixes and reference updates

Gravitational waves from coalescences of neutron stars or stellar-mass black holes into intermediate-mass black holes (IMBHs) of $\gtrsim 100$ solar masses represent one of the exciting possible sources for advanced gravitational-wave detectors. These sources can provide definitive evidence for the existence of IMBHs, probe globular-cluster dynamics, and potentially serve as tests of general relativity. We analyse the accuracy with which we can measure the masses and spins of the IMBH and its companion in intermediate-mass ratio coalescences. We find that we can identify an IMBH with a mass above $100 ~ M_\odot$ with $95\%$ confidence provided the massive body exceeds $130 ~ M_\odot$. For source masses above $\sim200 ~ M_\odot$, the best measured parameter is the frequency of the quasi-normal ringdown. Consequently, the total mass is measured better than the chirp mass for massive binaries, but the total mass is still partly degenerate with spin, which cannot be accurately measured. Low-frequency detector sensitivity is particularly important for massive sources, since sensitivity to the inspiral phase is critical for measuring the mass of the stellar-mass companion. We show that we can accurately infer source parameters for cosmologically redshifted signals by applying appropriate corrections. We investigate the impact of uncertainty in the model gravitational waveforms and conclude that our main results are likely robust to systematics., Comment: 9 pages, 11 figures

The coalescence of compact binaries containing neutron stars or black holes is one of the most promising signals for advanced ground-based laser interferometer gravitational-wave detectors, with the first direct detections expected over the next few years. The rate of binary coalescences and the distribution of component masses is highly uncertain, and population synthesis models predict a wide range of plausible values. Poorly constrained parameters in population synthesis models correspond to poorly understood astrophysics at various stages in the evolution of massive binary stars, the progenitors of binary neutron star and binary black hole systems. These include effects such as supernova kick velocities, parameters governing the energetics of common envelope evolution and the strength of stellar winds. Observing multiple binary black hole systems through gravitational waves will allow us to infer details of the astrophysical mechanisms that lead to their formation. Here we simulate gravitational-wave observations from a series of population synthesis models including the effects of known selection biases, measurement errors and cosmology. We compare the predictions arising from different models and show that we will be able to distinguish between them with observations (or the lack of them) from the early runs of the advanced LIGO and Virgo detectors. This will allow us to narrow down the large parameter space for binary evolution models., Comment: 16 pages, 8 figures, updated to match version published in ApJ

This paper examines volatility in REITs using a multivariate GARCH based model. The Multivariate VAR-GARCH technique documents the return and volatility linkages between REIT sub-sectors and also examines the influence of other US equity series. The motivation is for investors to incorporate time-varyng volatility and correlations in their portfolio selection. The results illustrate the differences in results when higher frequency daily data is tested in comparison to the monthly data that has been commonly used in the existing literature. The linkages both within the REIT sector and between REITs and related sectors such as value stocks are weaker than commonly found in monthly studies. The broad market would appear to be more influential in the daily case.

Using a time-varying approach, this paper examines the dynamics of volatility in the REIT sector. The results highlight the attractiveness and suitability of using GARCH based approaches in the modeling of daily REIT volatility. The paper examines the influencing factors on REIT volatility, documenting the return and volatility linkages between REIT sub-sectors and also examines the influence of other US equity series. The results contrast with previous studies of monthly REIT volatility. Linkages within the REIT sector and with related sectors such as value stocks are diminished, while the general influence of market sentiment, coming through the large cap indices is enhanced. This would indicate that on a daily basis general market sentiment plays a more fundamental role than more intuitive relationships within the capital markets.

One stylized feature of financial volatility impacting the modeling process is long memory. This paper examines long memory for alternative risk measures, observed absolute and squared returns for Daily REITs and compares the findings for a non- REIT equity index. The paper utilizes a variety of tests for long memory finding evidence that REIT volatility does display persistence, in contrast to the actual return series. Trading volume is found to be strongly associated with long memory. The results do however suggest differences in the findings with regard to REITs in comparison to the broader equity sector which may be due to relatively thin trading during the sample period.