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In this study, we have developed a predictive model for debris flows using machine learning techniques on a detailed dataset composed by a variety of geomorphological and hydro-meteorological variables. The variables of the dataset were collected from daily measured and modelled data for all of the drainage basins in which at least one debris-flow event was generated during the time period considered (2009-2019). The performances of the models obtained with different machine learning techniques were evaluated with the ROC analysis. The most suitable model was then experimentally implemented in the existing early warning system of the Aosta Valley Region. The model provides daily values of debris-flow probability (DFP) for individual basins, based on the input geo-morphological and hydro-meteorological variables. These results can be used to issue specific debris-flow alerts at the scale of the alert areas of the region.

The knowledge of snowpack dynamics is of critical importance to several real-time applications especially in mountain basins, such as agricultural production, water resource management, flood prevention, hydropower generation. Since simulations are affected by model biases and forcing data uncertainty, an increasing interest focuses on the assimilation of snow-related observations with the purpose of enhancing predictions on snowpack state. The study aims at investigating the effectiveness of snow multivariable data assimilation (DA) at an Alpine site. The system consists of a snow energy-balance model strengthened by a multivariable DA system. An Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) scheme allows assimilating ground-based and remotely sensed snow observations in order to improve the model simulations. This research aims to investigate and discuss: (1) the limitations and constraints in implementing a multivariate EnKF scheme in the framework of snow modelling, and (2) its performance in consistently updating the snowpack state. The performance of the multivariable DA is shown for the study case of Torgnon station (Aosta Valley, Italy) in the period June 2012 - December 2013. The results of several experiments are discussed with the aim of analyzing system sensitivity to the DA frequency, the ensemble size, and the impact of assimilating different observations.

State-of-the-art snow sensing technologies currently provide an unprecedented amount of data from both remote sensing and ground sensors, but their assimilation into dynamic models is bounded to data quality, which is often low – especially in mountain, high-elevation, and unattended regions where snow is the predominant land-cover feature. To maximize the value of snow-depth measurements, we developed a random forest classifier to automatize the quality assurance and quality control (QA/QC) procedure of near-surface snow-depth measurements collected through ultrasonic sensors, with particular reference to the differentiation of snow cover from grass or bare-ground data and to the detection of random errors (e.g., spikes). The model was trained and validated using a split-sample approach of an already manually classified dataset of 18 years of data from 43 sensors in Aosta Valley (northwestern Italian Alps) and then further validated using 3 years of data from 27 stations across the rest of Italy (with no further training or tuning). The F1 score was used as scoring metric, it being the most suited to describe the performances of a model in the case of a multiclass imbalanced classification problem. The model proved to be both robust and reliable in the classification of snow cover vs. grass/bare ground in Aosta Valley (F1 values above 90 %) yet less reliable in rare random-error detection, mostly due to the dataset imbalance (samples distribution: 46.46 % snow, 49.21 % grass/bare ground, 4.34 % error). No clear correlation with snow-season climatology was found in the training dataset, which further suggests the robustness of our approach. The application across the rest of Italy yielded F1 scores on the order of 90 % for snow and grass/bare ground, thus confirming results from the testing region and corroborating model robustness and reliability, with again a less skillful classification of random errors (values below 5 %). This machine learning algorithm of data quality assessment will provide more reliable snow data, enhancing their use in snow models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We present IT-SNOW, a serially complete and multi-year snow reanalysis for Italy (300k+ km²) covering a transitional continental-to-Mediterranean region where snow plays an important, but still poorly constrained societal and ecological role. IT-SNOW provides ∼500-m, daily maps of Snow Water Equivalent (SWE), snow depth, bulk-snow density, and liquid water content for the 5 period 01/09/2010 - 31/08/2021, with future updates envisaged on a regular basis. As the output of an operational chain employed in real-world civil-protection applications (S3M Italy), IT-SNOW ingests input data from thousands of automatic weather stations, snow-covered-area maps from Sentinel 2, MODIS, and H-SAF products, and maps of snow depth from the spazialization of 350+ on-the-ground snow-depth sensors. Validation using Sentinel-1-based maps of snow depth and a variety of independent, in-situ snow data from three focus regions (Aosta Valley, Lombardia, and Molise) shows little to none mean bias compared to the former, and Root Mean Square Errors on the order of 30 to 60 cm and 90 to 300 mm for in-situ, measured snow depth and Snow Water Equivalent, respectively. Estimates of peak SWE by IT-SNOW are also well correlated with annual streamflow at the closure section of 102 basins across Italy (0.87), with ratios between peak SWE and annual streamflow that are in line with expectations for this mixed rain-snow region (22% on average). Examples of use allowed us to estimate 13.70 ± 4.9 Gm3 of SWE across the Italian landscape at peak accumulation, which on average occurs on the 4th of March. Nearly 52% of mean seasonal SWE is accumulated across the Po river basin, followed by the Adige river (23%), and central Apennines (5%). IT-SNOW is freely available with the following DOI: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7034956 (Avanzi et al., 2022b) and can contribute to better constraining the role of snow for seasonal to annual water resources - a crucial endevor in a warming and drier climate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

By shifting winter precipitation into summer freshet, the cryosphere supports life across the world. The sensitivity of this shifting mechanism to climate, as well as the role played by the cryosphere in the Earth energy budget, has motivated the development of a broad spectrum of predictive models. Such models rarely combine a high degree of physical realism in both the seasonal snow and glaciers, and generally are not integrated with hydrologic models describing the fate of meltwater through the hydrologic budget. We present S3M v5.1, a spatially explicit and hydrology-oriented cryospheric model that successfully reconstructs seasonal snow and glacier evolution through time and that can be natively coupled with distributed hydrologic models. Model physics include precipitation-phase partitioning, snow and glacier energy and mass balances, snow rheology and hydraulics, and a data-assimilation protocol. Comparatively novel aspects of S3M with respect to the existing literature are an explicit representation of the spatial patterns of snow liquid-water content, an hybrid approach to snowmelt that decouples the radiation- and temperature-driven contributions, the implementation of the ∆h parametrization for distributed ice-thickness change, and the inclusion of a distributed debris-driven melt factor. Focusing on its operational implementation in the Italian north-western Alps, we show that S3M provides robust predictions of the snow and glacier mass balances at multiple scales, thus delivering the necessary information to support real-world hydrologic operations. S3M is well suited for both operational flood forecasting and basic research, including future scenarios of the fate of the cryosphere and water supply in a warming climate. The model is open source, and the paper comprises an user manual as well as resources to prepare input data and set up computational environments and libraries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]