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SUMMARY We have simulated 0–5 Hz deterministic wave propagation for a suite of 17 models of the 2014 Mw 5.1 La Habra, CA, earthquake with the Southern California Earthquake Center Community Velocity Model Version S4.26-M01 using a finite-fault source. Strong motion data at 259 sites within a 148 km × 140 km area are used to validate our simulations. Our simulations quantify the effects of statistical distributions of small-scale crustal heterogeneities (SSHs), frequency-dependent attenuation Q(f), surface topography and near-surface low-velocity material (via a 1-D approximation) on the resulting ground motion synthetics. The shear wave quality factor QS(f) is parametrized as QS, 0 and QS, 0fγ for frequencies less than and higher than 1 Hz, respectively. We find the most favourable fit to data for models using ratios of QS, 0 to shear wave velocity VS of 0.075–1.0 and γ values less than 0.6, with the best-fitting amplitude drop-off for the higher frequencies obtained for γ values of 0.2–0.4. Models including topography and a realistic near-surface weathering layer tend to increase peak velocities at mountain peaks and ridges, with a corresponding decrease behind the peaks and ridges in the direction of wave propagation. We find a clear negative correlation between the effects on peak ground velocity amplification and duration lengthening, suggesting that topography redistributes seismic energy from the large-amplitude first arrivals to the adjacent coda waves. A weathering layer with realistic near-surface low velocities is found to enhance the amplification at mountain peaks and ridges, and may partly explain the underprediction of the effects of topography on ground motions found in models. Our models including topography tend to improve the fit to data, as compared to models with a flat free surface, while our distributions of SSHs with constraints from borehole data fail to significantly improve the fit. Accuracy of the velocity model, particularly the near-surface low velocities, as well as the source description, controls the resolution with which the anelastic attenuation can be determined. Our results demonstrate that it is feasible to use fully deterministic physics-based simulations to estimate ground motions for seismic hazard analysis up to 5 Hz. Here, the effects of, and trade-offs with, near-surface low-velocity material, topography, SSHs and Q(f) become increasingly important as frequencies increase towards 5 Hz, and should be included in the calculations. Future improvement in community velocity models, wider access to computational resources, more efficient numerical codes and guidance from this study are bound to further constrain the ground motion models, leading to more accurate seismic hazard analysis.

SUMMARY The near-surface seismic structure (to a depth of about 1000 m), particularly the shear wave velocity (VS), can strongly affect the propagation of seismic waves and, therefore, must be accurately calibrated for ground motion simulations and seismic hazard assessment. The VS of the top (

More than 2,000 persons with developmental disability trans- ferred from California institutions into community care during 1993 to early 1996. Using data on 1,878 children and adults moved between April 1, 1993 and March 5, 1996, Strauss, Shavelle, Baumeister and Anderson (1998) found a corresponding increase in mortality rates by comparison with those who stayed behind. Shavelle and Strauss (1999) updated the study through 1996 and found similar results. The present study is a further update through 1999. There were 81 deaths, a 47% increase in risk-adjusted mor- tality over that expected in institutions ( p< 0.01). As in the two previous studies, we found that persons transferred later were at higher risk than those moving earlier, even after adjustment for differences in risk profiles. The difference cannot be explained by the short-term effects of the transfer, and therefore appear to reflect an increased mortality rate associated with the less intensive medical care and supervision available in the community.

Empirical transfer functions (ETFs) between seismic records observed at the surface and depth represent a powerful tool to estimate site effects for earthquake hazard analysis. However, conventional modeling of site amplification, with assumptions of horizontally polarized shear waves propagating vertically through 1D layered homogeneous media, often poorly predicts the ETFs, particularly, in which large lateral variations of velocity are present. Here, we test whether more accurate site effects can be obtained from theoretical transfer functions (TTFs) extracted from physics-based simulations that naturally incorporate the complex material properties. We select two well-documented downhole sites (the KiK-net site TKCH05 in Japan and the Garner Valley site, Garner Valley Downhole Array, in southern California) for our study. The 3D subsurface geometry at the two sites is estimated by means of the surface topography near the sites and information from the shear-wave profiles obtained from borehole logs. By comparing the TTFs to ETFs at the selected sites, we show how simulations using the calibrated 3D models can significantly improve site amplification estimates as compared to 1D model predictions. The primary reason for this improvement in 3D models is redirection of scattering from vertically propagating to more realistic obliquely propagating waves, which alleviates artificial amplification at nodes in the vertical-incidence response of corresponding 1D approximations, resulting in improvement of site effect estimation. The results demonstrate the importance of reliable calibration of subsurface structure and material properties in site response studies.

Ground motion time series recorded at stations separated by up to about 50 km show a frequency-dependent spatial coherency structure, and the corresponding ground motion intensity measures are found to be correlated. As omitting this correlation can result in underestimation of seismic losses in risk analysis, it is critical to quantify the spatial correlation structure for ground motion Fourier spectra estimated at different sites during a single event within a region. Toward this goal, we have developed an empirical frequency-dependent spatial correlation model for the within-event residuals of effective Fourier amplitude spectra from the Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center (PEER) Next Generation Attenuation (NGA) West2 database. The correlation model shows slower decrease of the spatial correlation with distance at lower frequencies compared with higher frequencies, in agreement with the underlying ground motion data, and no significant dependence on the magnitude of the earthquakes is observed. We use this empirical model to incorporate frequency-dependent spatial correlation into a hybrid deterministic-stochastic broadband ground motion generation module, which successfully generates synthetic time series for seven western US earthquakes with frequency-dependent spatial correlation that closely mimics that of the empirical model. Furthermore, the method also significantly improves the correlation for spectral accelerations, cumulative absolute velocities, and Arias intensities, compared with that derived from the original broadband module.

The International Monitoring System (IMS) hydroacoustic network consists of six hydrophone stations and 5 T-stations. The IMS T-stations are high-frequency seismic stations (sample rates of 100 Hz) situated on islands or coastal stations and intended primarily to capture impulsive signals from in-water explosions. However, while there are numerous recordings of impulsive-like signals from in-water explosions at the hydrophone stations, recordings of this type of signal at the T-stations are rare. This is because the conversion of the hydroacoustic to a seismic signal as it propagates from ocean to land is inefficient, characterized both by complex geologic and topographic features and by strong attenuation. To improve the understanding of this signal conversion at T-stations, we performed numerical calculations using the spectral element code SPECFEM2D, modelling the acoustic signal as it propagates from the deep ocean through the ocean/land interface and finally, as an elastic signal, to the T-station. Environmental information from a variety of sources was gathered to construct the earth and ocean models used in the calculations. The goal of this work is to provide a set of calculated waveforms to complement the limited set of observed waveforms and to assist in the characterization of arrivals from explosion-generated hydroacoustic waves recorded at the T-stations.

Objective: The study aimed to describe findings from a matched clusters trial of a school-based intervention Let’s Be Friends designed to promote social competence and prevent maladaptive behavior by strengthening the social information processing (SIP) skills of third-grade children in rural China. Method: Using a blocked cluster design with random sampling, 13 treatment schools ( n = 355) of a total of 67 schools in the study site were randomly selected, and 14 schools ( n = 341) formed the control condition. All third graders from the treatment schools received 14 sessions of intervention. Results: The adapted program appears to have strengthened children’s SIP skills, reduced aggressive behavior, and promoted cognitive concentration. The study does not confirm that children growing up in single-child families fare worse than children living with siblings. Conclusion: The program has the potential to strengthen the SIP skills of children in rural China.

Ground‐motion simulations can be viable alternatives to empirical relations for seismic hazard analysis when data are sparse. Interfrequency correlation is revealed in recorded seismic data, which has implications for seismic risk (Bayless and Abrahamson, 2018a). However, in many cases, simulated ground‐motion time series, in particular those originating from stochastic methods, lack interfrequency correlation. Here, we develop a postprocessing method to rectify simulation techniques that otherwise produce synthetic time histories deficient in an interfrequency correlation structure. An empirical correlation matrix is used in our approach to generate correlated random variables that are multiplied in the frequency domain with the Fourier amplitudes of the synthetic ground‐motion time series. The method is tested using the San Diego State University broadband ground‐motion generation module, which is a broadband ground‐motion generator that combines deterministic low‐frequency and stochastic high‐frequency signals, validated for the median of the spectral acceleration. Using our method, the results for seven western U.S. earthquakes with magnitude between 5.0 and 7.2 show that empirical interfrequency correlations are well simulated for a large number of realizations without biasing the fit of the median of the spectral accelerations to data. The best fit of the interfrequency correlation to data is obtained assuming that the horizontal components are correlated with a correlation coefficient of about 0.7.

ObjectivesCancer incidence and mortality are important outcomes in the surveillance of long-term astronaut health. We compare cancer incidence rates, cancer-specific mortality rates, and cancer case-fatality ratios in US astronauts with those in the US general population.MethodsWe use standardised incidence ratios (SIRs) and standardised mortality ratios (SMRs) to index the incidence and mortality of various cancers against rates in the US general population, from the US astronaut cohort inception in April 1959 through 31 December 2017. We compare the lethality of these cancers using the relative case-fatality ratio.ResultsOverall cancer incidence and mortality were slightly lower than expected from national rates with SIR 82 (95% CI 63 to 104) and SMR 72 (95% CI 44 to 111) with a modest 14% reduction in case-fatality ratio. Prostate cancer and melanoma skin cancer had significant increases in incidence, with SIR of 162 (95% CI 109 to 232) and 252 (95% CI 126 to 452), respectively, though only melanoma had a significant increase in mortality, with SMR 508 (95% CI 105 to 1485). Lung cancer had a significant deficit of both cases and deaths, while colon cancer had sizeable (but not significant) reductions in incidence and mortality.ConclusionsThe increase in incidence of melanoma is consistent with that observed in aircraft pilots, suggesting this may be associated with ultraviolet radiation or lifestyle factors rather than any astronaut-specific exposure. Reductions in lung cancer incidence and mortality, and trends towards such reductions in colon cancer, may be explained in part by healthy lifestyle, as well as differential screening among astronauts.

Background: Cancer incidence and mortality are important outcomes in the surveillance of long-term astronaut health. In this research, we compare cancer incidence rates, cancer-specific mortality rates, and cancer case fatality ratios in US astronauts with those in the US general population.Methods: We use standardized incidence ratios and standardized mortality ratios to index the incidence and mortality of various cancers against rates in the US general population, from the US astronaut cohort inception in April 1959 through 31 December 2017. We also compare the lethality of these cancers in astronauts and the general population using the relative case fatality ratio.Results: The astronaut cohort included 338 individuals and over 9600 person-years of follow-up time. The counts of most cancers were under 3, though there were 11 cases of melanoma and 30 cases of prostate cancer. Both prostate and melanoma had statistically significant increases in incidence, though only melanoma had a significant increase in mortality. Lung cancer had a statistically significant deficit of both cases and deaths, while colon cancer had sizable (but not statistically significant) reductions in incidence and mortality. Three cancers showed evidence of detection bias (colon, hematologic, prostate), possibly a result of astronaut health screening protocols. For all cancers combined, astronauts showed a non-significant reduction in incidence and mortality, and a significant reduction in case fatality ratio.Conclusions: Though there were observed increases in both incidence and mortality from melanoma among astronauts, these increases are consistent with those observed repeatedly among aircraft pilots, suggesting this may be associated with ultraviolet radiation or lifestyle factors rather than any astronaut-specific exposure. The increase in prostate cancer incidence is likely explained by detection bias, and the same may be true for hematologic cancers. The lack of statistical significance in the reduction of incidence and mortality for colon cancer may be attributable to relaxed screening practices for astronauts in recent years. As astronaut health surveillance continues and evolves, the growing database will lead to a clearer picture over time. The methods employed here provide a useful structure for ongoing analysis of this unique occupational cohort.

Near-fault motion is often dominated by long-period, pulse-like particle velocities with fault-normal polarization that, when enhanced by directivity, may strongly excite mid- to high-rise structures. We assess the extent to which plastic yielding may affect amplitude, frequency content, and distance scaling of near-fault directivity pulses. Dynamic simulations of 3D strike-slip ruptures reveal significant plasticity effects, and these persist when geometrical fault roughness is added. With and without off-fault yielding, these models (~ M 7) predict fault-normal pulse behavior similar to that of observed pulses (periods of 2-5 seconds, amplitudes increasing with rupture distance until approaching a limit), but yielding systematically reduces pulse amplitude and increases the dominant period. Yielding causes near-fault (< ~2 km) peak ground velocity (PGV) to saturate with respect to increases in both stress drop and epicentral distance, and at small distance to rupture, yielding may contribute significantly to the observed magnitude saturation of PGV. The results support the following elements for functional forms in empirical pulse models: (i) a fault-normal distance saturation factor, (ii) a period-dependent and along-strike distance-dependent factor representing directivity, and (iii) an along-strike saturation factor to truncate growth of the directivity factor. In addition to the foregoing effects on long-period fault-normal pulses, the model with off-fault plasticity is very efficient in suppressing the high-frequency fault-parallel acceleration pulses that otherwise develop when local supershear rupture transients occur. The latter result may explain, at least in part, the absence of an observable Mach wave signature from supershear rupture.

Drivers of and barriers to consumer adoption of product-service systems (PSS) deviating strongly from the current consumption paradigm remain unidentified. This study quantitatively investigates purchase intentions of a hypothetical branded fashion subscription service. This service features use- and result-oriented PSS attributes in a lack of ownership, newness, and choice, and is investigated from a Prospect Theory perspective using a mixed method design combining an experiment with a survey (n=524). Results show that even if the PSS provider is highly trusted by consumers, this only mitigates some of the worries consumers have about wearing used clothing and being held financially liable for product damage. The only driver of adoption is the opportunity to save money. Additional specific product information is also explored and shows that PSS providers have scope to change consumer perceptions. Overall, it appears that in fashion ownership and choice are lesser issues than the literature suggests, although financial incentives are important. Furthermore having a trusted brand allows a potential PSS provider to alleviate only some of the concerns consumers have. The contribution of this paper lies in its empirical findings as well as in its validation of Prospect Theory as a valid approach to enquiring into reasons for or against consumer adoption of complex PSS such as subscription services.

Kinematic source inversions of major (M≥7) strike-slip earthquakes show that the slip at depth exceeds surface displacements measured in the field, and it has been suggested that this shallow slip deficit (SSD) is caused by distributed plastic deformation near the surface. We perform dynamic rupture simulations of M 7.2–7.4 earthquakes in elastoplastic media and analyze the sensitivity of SSD and off-fault deformation (OFD) to rock quality parameters. While linear simulations clearly underpredict observed SSD and OFDs, nonlinear simulations for a moderately fractured fault damage zone predict a SSD of 44–53% and OFDs of 39–48%, consistent with the 30–60% SSD and 46 ± 10% (1σ) OFD reported for the 1992 M 7.3 Landers earthquake. Both SSD and OFDs are sensitive to the quality of the fractured rock mass inside the fault damage zone, and surface rupture is almost entirely suppressed in poor quality material.

Earthquake source properties such as seismic moment and stress drop are routinely estimated from far-field body-wave amplitude spectra. Some quantitative but model-dependent relations have been established between seismic spectra and source parameters. However, large variability is seen in the parameter estimates, and it is uncertain how the variability is partitioned among real variability in the source parameters, observational error and modeling error due to complexity of earthquake behaviors. Earthquake models with dynamic weakening have been found to exhibit two different modes of rupture: expanding crack and self-healing pulse modes. Four representative models are generated to model the transition from crack-like to pulse-like. Pulse-like rupture leads to development of a second corner frequency and the intermediate spectral slope is approximately 2 in most cases. The focal-sphere-averaged lower P and S wave corner frequencies are systematically higher for pulse-like models than crack models of comparable rupture velocity. The slip-weighted stress drop ΔσE exceeds the moment-based stress drop ΔσM for pulse-like ruptures, with the ratio ranging from about 1.3 to 1.65, while they are equal for the crack-like case. The variations in rupture mode introduce variability of the order of a factor of two in standard (i.e., crack-model based) spectral estimates of stress drop. The transition from arresting- to growing-pulse rupture is accompanied by a large (factor of ∼1.6) increase in the radiation ratio. Thus, variations in rupture mode may account for the portion of the scatter in observational spectral estimates of source parameters.

Introduction Recent research has postulated increased cardiovascular mortality for astronauts who participated in the Apollo lunar missions. The conclusions, however, are based on small numbers of astronauts, are derived from methods with known weaknesses, and are not consistent with prior research. Methods Records for NASA astronauts and U.S. Air Force astronauts were analyzed to produce standardized mortality ratios. Lunar astronauts were compared to astronauts who have never flown in space (nonflight astronauts), those who have only flown missions in low Earth orbit (LEO astronauts), and the U.S. general population. Results Lunar astronauts were significantly older at cohort entry than other astronaut group and lunar astronauts alive as of the end of 2015 were significantly older than nonflight astronauts and LEO astronauts. No significant differences in cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality rates between astronaut groups was observed, though lunar astronauts were noted to be at significantly lower risk of death by CVD than are members of the U.S. general population (SMR = 13, 95% CI = 3-39). Discussion The differences in age structure between lunar and nonlunar astronauts and the deaths of LEO astronauts from external causes at young ages lead to confounding in proportional mortality studies of astronauts. When age and follow-up time are properly taken into account using cohort-based methods, no significant difference in CVD mortality rates is observed. Care should be taken to select the correct study design, outcome definition, exposure classification, and analysis when answering questions involving rare occupational exposures.Reynolds RJ, Day SM. Mortality due to cardiovascular disease among Apollo lunar astronauts. Aerosp Med Hum Perform. 2017; 88(5):492-496.

The internet of things (IoT) is gaining attention from both scholars and practitioners regarding its potential as a key enabler of servitized business models; academic research on this emerging concept is increasing but overall underexplored, however. This paper comprehensively analyses and consolidates the relevant literature on the emerging concept of IoT and servitized business models through conducting a systematic literature review. Based on an analysis of 74 articles, four archetypes of business models are identified that are enabled by the IoT: add-on, sharing, usage-based and solution-oriented and supplemented with information on what role IoT adoption takes, benefits from the provider perspective, and the inhibiting factors per archetype. A framework draws the findings together and forms five propositions about these elements and their corresponding business models that may guide future empirical research and serve as a common typology. Therefore, this study contributes to the body of knowledge on innovative servitized business models by classifying emergent business models utilising IoT and what is currently known about them. For practice, this paper provides an overview for initial consideration by practitioners before adopting IoT in enabling servitized business models and the range of applications IoT may have in enabling servitized business models with examples.

INTRODUCTION: Research on the mortality of space explorers has focused exclusively on U.S. astronauts and Soviet and Russian cosmonauts. However, other nations have organized space programs over the last 40 yr and the European Space Agency, the Canadian Space Agency, the China National Space Administration, and the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency all offer an opportunity for further study of the mortality of space explorers.METHODS: We used biographical and vital data abstracted from public sources for European, Canadian, Chinese, and Japanese astronauts. Using general population mortality rates from the Human Mortality Database and mortality rates derived from the cohort of U.S. astronauts, we computed standardized mortality ratios.RESULTS: The groups displayed different preferences in selection of astronauts. As there were no deaths in any of the four groups, the point estimates for standardized mortality ratios were all 0. However, the European cohort experienced a statistically significant reduction in all-cause mortality risk in comparison to the European general population as well as in comparison to U.S. astronauts.DISCUSSION: The healthy worker effect predicts that all study cohorts should have lower all-cause mortality risk in comparison to their general populations. The general population of Japan has mortality rates low enough that any reduction in mortality risk may remain undetectable in the Japanese cohort. Continued surveillance of these populations in the coming decades will make them a useful addition to the evidence base for astronaut mortality.Reynolds RJ, Day SM. Mortality among international astronauts. Aerosp Med Hum Perform. 2019; 90(7):647-651.

Previous studies have shown that plastic yielding in crustal rocks in the fault zone may impose a physical limit to extreme ground motions. We explore the effects of fault-zone nonlinearity on peak ground velocities (PGVs) by simulating a suite of surface-rupturing strike-slip earthquakes in a medium governed by Drucker–Prager plasticity using the AWP-ODC finite-difference code. Our simulations cover magnitudes ranging from 6.5 to 8.0, three different rock strength models, and average stress drops of 3.5 and 7.0 MPa, with a maximum frequency of 1 Hz and a minimum shear-wave velocity of 500 m/s. Friction angles and cohesions in our rock models are based on strength criteria which are frequently used for fractured rock masses in civil and mining engineering. For an average stress drop of 3.5 MPa, plastic yielding reduces nearfault PGVs by 15–30% in pre-fractured, low strength rock, but less than 1% in massive, high-quality rock. These reductions are almost insensitive to magnitude. If the stress drop is doubled, plasticity reduces near-fault PGVs by 38–45% and 5–15% in rocks of low and high strength, respectively. Because non-linearity reduces slip rates and static slip near the surface, plasticity acts in addition to, and may partially be emulated by, a shallow velocity-strengthening layer. The effects of plasticity are exacerbated if a fault damage zone with reduced shear-wave velocities and reduced rock strength is present. In the linear case, fault-zone trapped waves result in higher near-surface peak slip rates and ground velocities compared to simulations without a low-velocity zone. These amplifications are balanced out by fault-zone plasticity if rocks in the damage zone exhibit low-to-moderate strength throughout the depth extent of the low-velocity zone (~5 km). We also perform dynamic nonlinear simulations of a high stress drop (8 MPa) M 7.8 earthquake rupturing the southern San Andreas fault along 250 km from Indio to Lake Hughes. Non-linearity in the fault damage zone and in near-surface deposits would reduce peak ground velocities in the Los Angeles basin by 15–50%, depending on the strength of crustal rocks and shallow sediments. These results show that non-linear effects may be relevant even at long periods, in particular in earthquakes with high stress drop and in the presence of a lowvelocity fault damage zone.

Objective: The study had two objectives (a) to adapt for Chinese children an intervention designed to strengthen the social information–processing (SIP) skills of children in the United States, and (b) to pilot test the adapted intervention in China. Methods: Adaptation of the Making Choices program involved reviewing Chinese literature on child development, translating and back-translating a treatment manual, modifying intervention content, and engaging experts to review program materials. Children ( n = 91), ages 8–10, in five after-school child care centers in Tianjin, China, received the program. After propensity score adjustments, the skills of children who received the program were compared to the skills of children ( n = 123) recruited from neighborhood primary schools. Results: The adapted program appears to have strengthened encoding skills. Patterns for other information-processing skills were promising but mixed. Conclusion: The program has the potential to strengthen the SIP skills of children in China.

We have developed a computational framework to study earthquake cycles in 2-D plane strain and apply it to faults separating dissimilar material. We consider a planar, strike-slip fault governed by rate-and-state friction where quasi-dynamic events nucleate spontaneously due to remote, tectonic loading. We investigate the influence of material contrast over the course of many hundreds of years. For the parameters we consider, we find that the presence of bimaterial properties influences the earthquake nucleation site, such that rupture in the preferred direction (that is, in the direction of particle motion of the side of the fault with lower shear wave velocity) is favorable. For large values of the critical slip distance Dc, events propagating in the preferred rupture direction occur for a wide range of material contrasts. For smaller values of Dc, small events emerge, even in the monomaterial case. With material mismatch present, some of these small events propagate in the nonpreferred direction, made possible by a favorable stress distribution left on the fault from previous ruptures. These results may shed light on our understanding of rupture directivity on large strike-slip faults (like the San Andreas Fault in California) which occasionally host events rupturing in the nonpreferred direction.

Space travelers are exposed to unique forms of ionizing radiation that pose potentially serious health hazards. Prior analyses have attempted to quantify excess mortality risk for astronauts exposed to space radiation, but low statistical power has frustrated inferences. If exposure to deep space radiation were causally linked to deaths due to two particular causes, e.g., cancer and cardiovascular disease, then those cause-specific deaths would not be statistically independent. In this case, a Kaplan-Meier survival curve for a specific cause that treats deaths due to competing causes as uninformative censored events would result in biased estimates of survival probabilities. Here we look for evidence of a deleterious effect of historical exposure to space radiation by assessing whether or not there is evidence for such bias in Kaplan-Meier estimates of survival probabilities for cardiovascular disease and cancer. Evidence of such bias may implicate space radiation as a common causal link to these two disease processes. An absence of such evidence would be evidence that no such common causal link to radiation exposure during space travel exists. We found that survival estimates from the Kaplan-Meier curves were largely congruent with those of competing risk methods, suggesting that if ionizing radiation is impacting the risk of death due to cancer and cardiovascular disease, the effect is not dramatic.

Objectives.—To compute mortality rates and excess death rates for patients with serious mental illness, specific to categories of gender, age and race/ethnicity. Background.—People with serious mental illness are known to be at greatly increased risk of mortality across the lifespan. However, the measures of mortality reported for this high-risk population are typically only summary measures, which do not provide either the mortality rates or excess death rates needed to construct life tables for individuals with serious mental illness. Methods.—Mortality rates were computed by dividing the number of deaths by the amount of life-years lived in strata specific to gender, age and race/ethnicity. Age-specific excess death rates were determined as the difference between the study population rate and the corresponding general population rate in each stratum. To compute excess death rates beyond observed ages in the cohort, a method with documented reliability and validity for chronic medical conditions was used. Results.—For the cohort with mental illness, mortality rates for Black and White females were mostly equal, and consistently greater than those for Hispanic females; excess death rates for females displayed a similar pattern. Among males, mortality rates were highest for Whites, with Hispanics and Blacks close in magnitude at all ages. Excess death rates for males showed more divergence between the categories of race/ethnicity across the age range. Conclusions.—Mortality rates specific to categories of gender, age and race/ethnicity show sufficient differences as to make them the preferred way to construct life tables. This is especially true in contrast to broader summary measures such as risk ratios, standardized incidence rates, or life expectancy.

ObjectiveStudies of mortality among US astronauts are complicated by the healthy worker effect, which predicts lower mortality for astronauts than the general population based solely on the ability to become and remain an astronaut. We attempt to evaluate astronaut mortality risk while accounting for the healthy worker effect.MethodsWe compare mortality rates of male US astronauts with those of professional athletes from Major League Baseball and the National Basketball Association between January 1, 1960 and May 31, 2018.ResultsBoth athlete cohorts and astronauts had significantly lower-than-expected mortality in comparison with the general population. For the overall study period, there were no significant differences in all-cause mortality rates between astronauts and athletes. Astronauts were at greater risk of death from external causes (SMR=583; 95% CI 377 to 860) and reduced risk of death from cardiovascular disease (SMR=39; 95% CI 18 to 73) and all natural causes (SMR=67; 95% CI 47 to 93).ConclusionsThe data presented here do not support increased mortality for astronauts due to unique exposures received in space. The mortality experience of astronauts as compared with professional baseball and basketball players should be re-examined periodically as part of the ongoing surveillance of astronaut mortality in years to come.

Astronauts and cosmonauts have been reported to be at substantially lower age-specific risk of death from chronic disease (primarily heart disease and cancers) in comparison to the general populations of the United States and Russia, respectively. Yet, both groups have been at greater age-specific risk of death from external causes, mainly due to plane crashes and spacecraft accidents. In this study we tested the hypothesis that the reported reductions in mortality from natural causes result, to some degree, from survival bias created by early deaths from external causes. Statistical comparisons of baseline characteristics between cause-of-death groups showed no significant differences. Cause-specific survival curves showed no difference in long-term mortality from external causes among either astronauts or cosmonauts compared to Kaplan-Meier curves with censoring for competing causes. Cause-specific survival curves for natural causes suggested a possible upward bias in mortality estimates published thus far for both groups of space explorers. Differences in survival between Kaplan-Meier curves and the cause-specific survival curves were 7% and 5% for astronauts and cosmonauts respectively after 55 years. The data do not support the hypothesis that observed reductions in mortality from natural causes are due in whole or in part to bias created by deaths from external causes at young ages. The data imply that reports of cause-specific mortality for astronauts and cosmonauts may in fact systematically overestimate mortality rates, though these findings should be interpreted with caution as the data are thin at the extremes of follow-up time.

Memory‐variable methods have been widely applied to approximate frequency‐independent quality factor Q in numerical simulation of wave propagation. The frequency‐independent model is often appropriate for frequencies up to about 1 Hz but at higher frequencies is inconsistent with some regional studies of seismic attenuation. We apply the memory‐variable approach to frequency‐dependent Q models that are constant below, and follow a power‐law above, a chosen transition frequency. We present numerical results for the corresponding memory‐variable relaxation times and weights, obtained by nonnegative least‐squares fitting of the Q ( f ) function, for a range of exponent values; these times and weights can be scaled to an arbitrary transition frequency and a power‐law prefactor, respectively. The resulting memory‐variable formulation can be used with numerical wave‐propagation solvers based on methods such as finite differences (FDs) or spectral elements and may be implemented in either conventional or coarse‐grained form. In the coarse‐grained approach, we fit effective Q for low‐ Q values (

Studies reporting long-term survival probabilities for cohorts of persons with cerebral palsy provide evidence-based information on the life expectancy of those cohorts. Some studies have provided estimates of life expectancy based on extrapolation of such evidence, whereas many others have opted not to do so. Here we review the basic methods of life table analysis necessary for performing such extrapolations, and apply these methods to obtain evidence-based estimates of life expectancy from several studies that do not report such estimates themselves.

Background A life care plan often analyzes needs up to a person's life expectancy. Expected present value of necessary funding for such a plan is likewise based on the fixed survival time. If a client should live beyond or die before the life expectancy, a shortfall or excess of funding may seem inevitable. The life table, of which life expectancy is a summary measure, clarifies these issues. Objectives We explain life expectancy and how it is used in tort litigation, economic calculations, and life care planning. We examine the life table, of which life expectancy is one output. We illustrate how a life table provides age-specific probabilities of death and survival, life expectancies, and median survival times, and other information and that every life expectancy must be associated with a life table. We consider the implications for life care planners, forensic economists, and others. Conclusions Life expectancy is a summary of more detailed information provided in a life table. The full life table provides better information for planning purposes. Whether life expectancy or a full life table should be used in developing and valuing a life care plan is not well understood. A multi-disciplinary approach may help clarify these issues.

Online Material: Figures showing bias of PSA between data and simulations and between GMPEs and simulations for validation events and scenarios. This article summarizes the evaluation of ground‐motion simulation methods implemented on the Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC) Broadband Platform (BBP), version 14.3 (as of March 2014). A seven‐member panel, the authorship of this article, was formed to evaluate those methods for the prediction of pseudospectral accelerations (PSAs) of ground motion. The panel’s mandate was to evaluate the methods using tools developed through the validation exercise (Goulet et al. , 2015) and to define validation metrics for the assessment of the methods’ performance. This article summarizes the evaluation process and conclusions from the panel. The five broadband, finite‐source simulation methods on the BBP include two deterministic approaches herein referred to as CSM (Anderson, 2015) and UCSB (Crempien and Archuleta, 2015); a band‐limited stochastic white noise method called EXSIM (Atkinson and Assatourians, 2015); and two hybrid approaches, referred to as G&P (Graves and Pitarka, 2015) and SDSU (Olsen and Takedatsu, 2015), which utilize a deterministic Green’s function approach for periods longer than 1 s and stochastic methods for periods shorter than 1 s. Two acceptance tests were defined to validate the broadband finite‐source ground‐motion simulation methods (Goulet et al. , 2015). Part A compared observed and simulated PSAs for periods from 0.01 to 10 s for 12 moderate‐to‐large earthquakes located in California, Japan, and the eastern United States. Part B compared the median simulated PSAs with published Next Generation Attenuation‐West 1 (NGA‐West 1) (Abrahamson and Silva, 2008; Boore and Atkinson, 2008; Campbell and Bozorgnia, 2008; Chiou and Youngs, 2008) ground‐motion prediction equations (GMPEs) for specific magnitude and distance cases, using a pass–fail criterion based on a defined acceptable range around the spectral shape of the GMPEs. For the initial part A and part …

INTRODUCTION: Though the mortality of U.S. astronauts has been studied repeatedly in the last 20 yr, little is known about the long-term mortality trends of Soviet and Russian cosmonauts. METHODS: Using data from 266 cosmonauts accepted into cosmonaut training from 1960 to 2013, we document the causes of death and crude death rates among cosmonauts. Using standardized mortality ratios (SMR), we compared cosmonauts to the general populations of Russia and Ukraine, and to 330 U.S. astronauts. RESULTS: Cosmonauts experienced significantly lower all-cause mortality risk compared to the general population. However, cosmonauts were at almost double the risk of all-cause mortality in comparison to U.S. astronauts (SMR = 190, 95% C.I. 154-239). Cosmonauts were also at greater risk of circulatory disease (SMR = 364, 95% C.I. 225-557) and cancer (SMR = 177, 95% C.I. 108-274) compared to U.S. astronauts. Though not statistically significant, cosmonauts experienced fewer fatal accidents (SMR = 88, 95% C.I. = 54-136) than their U.S. counterparts. DISCUSSION: Cosmonauts are at much lower risk of all-cause mortality than the general populations of Russia and Ukraine, yet are at greater risk for death by cardiovascular disease and cancer than are U.S. astronauts. This disparity may have common roots with decreases in life expectancy in Russia in recent decades. Further research is needed to understand these trends fully. Language: en

This article describes the findings from an efficacy trial of a school-based, universal prevention program designed to reduce aggressive behavior of by strengthening emotion regulation and social information-processing (SIP) skills. Three cohorts of third graders ( N = 479) participated in this study. The first cohort participated in the Making Choices (MC) program, a second cohort participated in the Making Choices Plus (MC+) program, and a third (lagged) cohort received the standard health education curriculum. Pretest to posttest changes suggest both programs were associated with reduced levels of aggression and improved SIP skills. Gender-moderating effects were observed—boys displayed significant reductions in aggressive behavior and significant increases in positive social goals, whereas girls’ aggressive behaviors and social goals showed no significant changes.

Computer simulations of large (M ≥ 7.8) earthquakes rupturing the southern San Andreas Fault from SE to NW (e.g., ShakeOut, widely used for earthquake drills) have predicted strong long-period ground motions in the densely populated Los Angeles Basin due to channeling of waves through a series of interconnected sedimentary basins. Recently, the importance of this waveguide amplification effect for seismic shaking in the Los Angeles Basin has also been confirmed from observations of the ambient seismic field. By simulating the ShakeOut earthquake scenario (based on a kinematic source description) for a medium governed by Drucker-Prager plasticity, we show that nonlinear material behavior could reduce the earlier predictions of large long-period ground motions in the Los Angeles Basin by up to 70% as compared to viscoelastic solutions. These reductions are primarily due to yielding near the fault, although yielding may also occur in the shallow low-velocity deposits of the Los Angeles Basin if cohesions are close to zero. Fault zone plasticity remains important even for conservative values of cohesions, suggesting that current simulations assuming a linear response of rocks are overpredicting ground motions during future large earthquakes on the southern San Andreas Fault.