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Rigorous evaluation of artificial intelligence (AI) systems for image classification is essential before deployment into health-care settings, such as screening programmes, so that adoption is effective and safe. A key step in the evaluation process is the external validation of diagnostic performance using a test set of images. We conducted a rapid literature review on methods to develop test sets, published from 2012 to 2020, in English. Using thematic analysis, we mapped themes and coded the principles using the Population, Intervention, and Comparator or Reference standard, Outcome, and Study design framework. A group of screening and AI experts assessed the evidence-based principles for completeness and provided further considerations. From the final 15 principles recommended here, five affect population, one intervention, two comparator, one reference standard, and one both reference standard and comparator. Finally, four are appliable to outcome and one to study design. Principles from the literature were useful to address biases from AI; however, they did not account for screening specific biases, which we now incorporate. The principles set out here should be used to support the development and use of test sets for studies that assess the accuracy of AI within screening programmes, to ensure they are fit for purpose and minimise bias.

Artificial intelligence (AI) could have the potential to accurately classify mammograms according to the presence or absence of radiological signs of breast cancer, replacing or supplementing human readers (radiologists). The UK National Screening Committee's assessments of the use of AI systems to examine screening mammograms continues to focus on maximising benefits and minimising harms to women screened, when deciding whether to recommend the implementation of AI into the Breast Screening Programme in the UK. Maintaining or improving programme specificity is important to minimise anxiety from false positive results. When considering cancer detection, AI test sensitivity alone is not sufficiently informative, and additional information on the spectrum of disease detected and interval cancers is crucial to better understand the benefits and harms of screening. Although large retrospective studies might provide useful evidence by directly comparing test accuracy and spectrum of disease detected between different AI systems and by population subgroup, most retrospective studies are biased due to differential verification (ie, the use of different reference standards to verify the target condition among study participants). Enriched, multiple-reader, multiple-case, test set laboratory studies are also biased due to the laboratory effect (ie, radiologists' performance in retrospective, laboratory, observer studies is substantially different to their performance in a clinical environment). Therefore, assessment of the effect of incorporating any AI system into the breast screening pathway in prospective studies is required as it will provide key evidence for the effect of the interaction of medical staff with AI, and the impact on women's outcomes.

Background and Aims The simplified magnetic resonance enterography [MRE] index of activity [sMARIA], London, and ‘extended’ London, scoring systems are widely used in Crohn’s disease [CD] to assess disease activity, although validation studies have usually been single-centre, retrospective, and/or used few readers. Here, we evaluated these MRE indices within a prospective, multicentre, multireader, diagnostic accuracy trial. Methods A subset of participants [newly diagnosed or suspected of relapse] recruited to the METRIC trial with available terminal ileal [TI] biopsies was included. Using pre-specified thresholds, the sensitivity and specificity of sMARIA, London, and ‘extended’ London scores for active and severe [sMARIA] TI CD were calculated using different thresholds for the histological activity index [HAI]. Results We studied 111 patients [median age 29 years, interquartile range 21-41, 75 newly diagnosed, 36 suspected relapse] from seven centres, of whom 22 had no active TI CD [HAI = 0], 39 mild [HAI = 1], 13 moderate [HAI = 2], and 37 severe CD activity [HAI = 3]. In total, 26 radiologists prospectively scored MRE datasets as per their usual clinical practice. Sensitivity and specificity for active disease [HAI >0] were 83% [95% confidence interval 74% to 90%] and 41% [23% to 61%] for sMARIA, 76% [67% to 84%] and 64% [43% to 80%] for the London score, and 81% [72% to 88%] and 41% [23% to 61%] for the ‘extended’ London score, respectively. The sMARIA had 84% [69-92%] sensitivity and 53% [41-64%] specificity for severe CD. Conclusions When tested at their proposed cut-offs in a real-world setting, sMARIA, London, and ‘extended’ London indices achieve high sensitivity for active TI disease against a histological reference standard, but specificity is low.

Objectives Systematic review of CT measurements to predict the success or failure of subsequent ventral hernia repair has found limited data available in the indexed literature. To rectify this, we investigated multiple preoperative CT metrics to identify if any were associated with postoperative reherniation. Methods Following ethical permission, we identified patients who had undergone ventral hernia repair and had preoperative CT scanning available. Two radiologists made multiple measurements of the hernia and abdominal musculature from these scans, including loss of domain. Patients were divided subsequently into two groups, defined by hernia recurrence at 1-year subsequent to surgery. Hypothesis testing investigated any differences between CT measurements from each group. Results One hundred eighty-eight patients (95 male) were identified, 34 (18%) whose hernia had recurred by 1-year. Only three of 34 CT measurements were significantly different when patients whose hernia had recurred were compared to those who had not; these significant findings were assumed contingent on multiple testing. In particular, preoperative hernia volume (recurrence 155.3 cc [IQR 355.65] vs. no recurrence 78.2 [IQR 303.52], p = 0.26) nor loss of domain, whether calculated using the Tanaka (recurrence 0.02 [0.04] vs. no recurrence 0.009 [0.04], p = 0.33) or Sabbagh (recurrence 0.019 [0.05] vs. no recurrence 0.009 [0.04], p = 0.25) methods, differed between significantly between groups. Conclusions Preoperative CT measurements of ventral hernia morphology, including loss of domain, appear unrelated to postoperative recurrence. It is likely that the importance of such measurements to predict recurrence is outweighed by other patient factors and surgical reconstruction technique. Key Points • Preoperative CT scanning is often performed for ventral hernia but systematic review revealed little data regarding whether CT variables predict postoperative reherniation. • We found that the large majority of CT measurements, including loss of domain, did not differ significantly between patients whose hernia did and did not recur. • It is likely that the importance of CT measurements to predict recurrence is outweighed by other patient factors and surgical reconstruction technique.

Objectives To compare the distention quality and patient experience of oral mannitol and polyethylene glycol (PEG) for MRE. Methods This study is a retrospective, observational study of a subset of patients enrolled in a multicentre, prospective trial evaluating the diagnostic accuracy of MRE for small bowel Crohn’s. Overall and segmental MRE small bowel distention, from 105 patients (64 F, mean age 37) was scored from 0 = poor to 4 = excellent by two experienced observers (68 [65%] mannitol and 37 [35%] PEG). Additionally, 130 patients (77 F, mean age 34) completed a questionnaire rating tolerability of various symptoms immediately and 2 days after MRE (85 [65%] receiving mannitol 45 [35%] receiving PEG). Distension was compared between agents and between those ingesting ≤ 1 L or > 1 L of mannitol using the test of proportions. Tolerability grades were collapsed into “very tolerable,” “moderately tolerable,” and “not tolerable.” Results Per patient distension quality was similar between agents (“excellent” or “good” in 54% [37/68] versus 46% [17/37]) with mannitol and PEG respectively. Jejunal distension was significantly better with mannitol compared to PEG (40% [27/68] versus 14% [5/37] rated as excellent or good respectively). There was no significant difference according to the volume of mannitol ingested. Symptom tolerability was comparable between agents, although fullness following MRE was graded as “very tolerable” in 27% (12/45) of patients ingesting PEG, verses 44% (37/84) ingesting mannitol, difference 17% (95% CI 0.6 to 34%). Conclusion Mannitol-based solutions and PEG generally achieve comparable distension quality and side effect profiles, although jejunal distension is better quality with mannitol. Neither distension quality nor side-effect profile is altered by ingestion of more than 1 L of mannitol. Key Points • Mannitol-based and PEG-based oral preparation agents generally achieve comparable distension quality for MRE with the exception of the jejunum which is better distended with mannitol. • Mannitol-based and PEG-based oral preparation agents used for MRE have similar side effect profiles. • Neither distension quality nor side-effect profile is altered by ingestion of more than 1 L of mannitol.

Mesenteric panniculitis is encountered frequently during abdominopelvic CT scanning, often as an incidental finding. The observation is problematic because an association with malignancy has been raised in the literature. This review will describe the CT appearances and examine the available evidence regarding the significance of this finding. Ultimately, the literature remains unclear regarding how these patients should be managed, if at all.

IntroductionCrohn’s disease (CD) is characterised by discontinuous, relapsing enteric inflammation. Instituting advanced therapies at an early stage to suppress inflammation aims to prevent future complications such as stricturing or penetrating disease, and subsequent surgical resection. Therapeutics are effective but associated with certain side-effects and relatively expensive. There is therefore an urgent need for robust methods to predict which newly diagnosed patients will develop disabling disease, to identify patients who are most likely to benefit from early, advanced therapies. We aim to determine if magnetic resonance enterography (MRE) features at diagnosis improve prediction of disabling CD within 5 years of diagnosis.Methods and analysisWe describe the protocol for a multicentre, non-randomised, single-arm, prospective study of adult patients with newly diagnosed CD. We will use patients already recruited to the METRIC study and extend their clinical follow-up, as well as a separate group of newly diagnosed patients who were not part of the METRIC trial (MRE within 3 months of diagnosis), to ensure an adequate sample size. Follow-up will extend for at least 4 years. The primary outcome is to evaluate the comparative predictive ability of prognostic models incorporating MRE severity scores (Magnetic resonance Enterography Global Score (MEGS), simplified MAgnetic Resonance Index of Activity (sMaRIA) and Lémann Index) versus models using standard characteristics alone to predict disabling CD (modified Beaugerie definition) within 5 years of new diagnosis.Ethics and disseminationThis study protocol achieved National Health Service Research Ethics Committee (NHS REC), London—Hampstead Research Ethics Committee approval (IRAS 217422). Our findings will be disseminated via conference presentations and peer-reviewed publications.Trial registration numberISRCTN76899103.

Radiological findings in solitary rectal ulcer syndrome (SRUS) are well described for evacuation proctography (EP) but sparse for magnetic resonance defecography (MRD). In order to rectify this, we describe the spectrum of MRD findings in patients with histologically proven SRUS. MRD from twenty-eight patients (18 female; 10 males) with histologically confirmed SRUS were identified. MRD employed a 1.5-T magnet and a standardized technique with the rectal lumen filled with gel and imaged sagittally in the supine position, before, during, and after attempted rectal evacuation. A single radiologist observer with 5 years’ experience in pelvic floor imaging made the anatomical and functional measurements. Sixteen patients (10 female) demonstrated internal rectal intussusception and 3 patients (11%) demonstrated complete external rectal prolapse. Anterior rectoceles were noted in 12 female patients (43%). Associated anterior and middle compartment weakness (evidenced by excessive descent) was observed in 18 patients (64%). Cystocele was found in 14 patients (50%) and uterine prolapse was noted in 7 patients (25%). Enterocoeles were detected in 5 patients (18%) and peritoneocoele in 5 patients (18%). None had sigmoidocoele. Sixteen patients (57%) demonstrated delayed voiding and 13 patients (46%) incomplete voiding, suggesting defecatory dyssynergia. MRD can identify and grade both rectal intussusception and dyssynergia in SRUS, and also depict associated anterior and/or middle compartment descent. Distinction between structural and functional findings has important therapeutic implications.

Background Primary and incisional ventral hernia trials collect unstandardized inconsistent data, limiting data interpretation and comparison. This study aimed to create two minimum data sets for primary and incisional ventral hernia interventional trials to standardize data collection and improve trial comparison. To support these data sets, standardized patient-reported outcome measures and trial methodology criteria were created. Methods To construct these data sets, nominal group technique methodology was employed, involving 15 internationally recognized abdominal wall surgeons and two patient representatives. Initially a maximum data set was created from previous systematic and panellist reviews. Thereafter, three stages of voting took place: stage 1, selection of the number of variables for data set inclusion; stage 2, selection of variables to be included; and stage 3, selection of variable definitions and detection methods. A steering committee interpreted and analysed the data. Results The maximum data set contained 245 variables. The three stages of voting commenced in October 2019 and had been completed by July 2020. The final primary ventral hernia data set included 32 variables, the incisional ventral hernia data set included 40 variables, the patient-reported outcome measures tool contained 25 questions, and 40 methodological criteria were chosen. The best known variable definitions were selected for accurate variable description. CT was selected as the optimal preoperative descriptor of hernia morphology. Standardized follow-up at 30 days, 1 year, and 5 years was selected. Conclusion These minimum data sets, patient-reported outcome measures, and methodological criteria have allowed creation of a manual for investigators aiming to undertake primary ventral hernia or incisional ventral hernia interventional trials. Adopting these data sets will improve trial methods and comparisons.

MR elastography and magnetization-tagging use liver stiffness (LS) measurements to diagnose fibrosis but require physical drivers, specialist sequences and post-processing. Here we evaluate non-rigid registration of dynamic two-dimensional cine MRI images to measure cardiac-induced liver deformation (LD) as a measure of LS by (i) assessing preclinical proof-of-concept, (ii) clinical reproducibility and inter-reader variability, (iii) the effects of hepatic hemodynamic changes and (iv) feasibility in patients with cirrhosis. Sprague–Dawley rats (n = 21 bile duct ligated (BDL), n = 17 sham-operated controls) and fasted patients with liver cirrhosis (n = 11) and healthy volunteers (HVs, n = 10) underwent spoiled gradient-echo short-axis cardiac cine MRI studies at 9.4 T (rodents) and 3.0 T (humans). LD measurements were obtained from intrahepatic sub-cardiac regions-of-interest close to the diaphragmatic margin. One-week reproducibility and prandial stress induced hemodynamic changes were assessed in healthy volunteers. Normalized LD was higher in BDL (1.304 ± 0.062) compared with sham-operated rats (1.058 ± 0.045, P = 0.0031). HV seven-day reproducibility Bland–Altman (BA) limits-of-agreement (LoAs) were ± 0.028 a.u. and inter-reader variability BA LoAs were ± 0.030 a.u. Post-prandial LD increases were non-significant (+ 0.0083 ± 0.0076 a.u., P = 0.3028) and uncorrelated with PV flow changes (r = 0.42, p = 0.2219). LD measurements successfully obtained from all patients were not significantly higher in cirrhotics (0.102 ± 0.0099 a.u.) compared with HVs (0.080 ± 0.0063 a.u., P = 0.0847). Cardiac-induced LD is a conceptually reasonable approach from preclinical studies, measurements demonstrate good reproducibility and inter-reader variability, are less likely to be affected by hepatic hemodynamic changes and are feasible in patients with cirrhosis.

IntroductionChronic liver disease is a growing cause of morbidity and mortality in the UK. Acute presentation with advanced disease is common and prioritisation of resources to those at highest risk at earlier disease stages is essential to improving patient outcomes. Existing prognostic tools are of limited accuracy and to date no imaging-based tools are used in clinical practice, despite multiple anatomical imaging features that worsen with disease severity.In this paper, we outline our scoping review protocol that aims to provide an overview of existing prognostic factors and models that link anatomical imaging features with clinical endpoints in chronic liver disease. This will provide a summary of the number, type and methods used by existing imaging feature-based prognostic studies and indicate if there are sufficient studies to justify future systematic reviews.Methods and analysisThe protocol was developed in accordance with existing scoping review guidelines. Searches of MEDLINE and Embase will be conducted using titles, abstracts and Medical Subject Headings restricted to publications after 1980 to ensure imaging method relevance on OvidSP. Initial screening will be undertaken by two independent reviewers. Full-text data extraction will be undertaken by three pretrained reviewers who have participated in a group data extraction session to ensure reviewer consensus and reduce inter-rater variability. Where needed, data extraction queries will be resolved by reviewer team discussion. Reporting of results will be based on grouping of related factors and their cumulative frequencies. Prognostic anatomical imaging features and clinical endpoints will be reported using descriptive statistics to summarise the number of studies, study characteristics and the statistical methods used.Ethics and disseminationEthical approval is not required as this study is based on previously published work. Findings will be disseminated by peer-reviewed publication and/or conference presentations.

BackgroundTests for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) viral ribonucleic acid (RNA) using reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) are pivotal to detecting current coronavirus disease (COVID-19) and duration of detectable virus indicating potential for infectivity.MethodsWe conducted an individual participant data (IPD) systematic review of longitudinal studies of RT-PCR test results in symptomatic SARS-CoV-2. We searched PubMed, LitCOVID, medRxiv, and COVID-19 Living Evidence databases. We assessed risk of bias using a QUADAS-2 adaptation. Outcomes were the percentage of positive test results by time and the duration of detectable virus, by anatomical sampling sites.ResultsOf 5078 studies screened, we included 32 studies with 1023 SARS-CoV-2 infected participants and 1619 test results, from − 6 to 66 days post-symptom onset and hospitalisation. The highest percentage virus detection was from nasopharyngeal sampling between 0 and 4 days post-symptom onset at 89% (95% confidence interval (CI) 83 to 93) dropping to 54% (95% CI 47 to 61) after 10 to 14 days. On average, duration of detectable virus was longer with lower respiratory tract (LRT) sampling than upper respiratory tract (URT). Duration of faecal and respiratory tract virus detection varied greatly within individual participants. In some participants, virus was still detectable at 46 days post-symptom onset.ConclusionsRT-PCR misses detection of people with SARS-CoV-2 infection; early sampling minimises false negative diagnoses. Beyond 10 days post-symptom onset, lower RT or faecal testing may be preferred sampling sites. The included studies are open to substantial risk of bias, so the positivity rates are probably overestimated.

Objectives Effects of liver disease on portal venous (PV), hepatic arterial (HA), total liver blood flow (TLBF), and cardiac function are poorly understood. Terlipressin modulates PV flow but effects on HA, TLBF, and sepsis/acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF)-induced haemodynamic changes are poorly characterised. In this study, we investigated the effects of terlipressin and sepsis/ACLF on hepatic haemodynamics and cardiac function in a rodent cirrhosis model using caval subtraction phase-contrast (PC) MRI and cardiac cine MRI. Methods Sprague-Dawley rats (n = 18 bile duct–ligated (BDL), n = 16 sham surgery controls) underwent caval subtraction PCMRI to estimate TLBF and HA flow and short-axis cardiac cine MRI for systolic function at baseline, following terlipressin and lipopolysaccharide (LPS) infusion, to model ACLF. Results All baseline hepatic haemodynamic/cardiac systolic function parameters (except heart rate and LV mass) were significantly different in BDL rats. Following terlipressin, baseline PV flow (sham 181.4 ± 12.1 ml/min/100 g; BDL 68.5 ± 10.1 ml/min/100 g) reduced (sham − 90.3 ± 11.1 ml/min/100 g, p < 0.0001; BDL − 31.0 ± 8.0 ml/min/100 g, p = 0.02), sham baseline HA flow (33.0 ± 11.3 ml/min/100 g) increased (+ 92.8 ± 21.3 ml/min/100 g, p = 0.0003), but BDL baseline HA flow (83.8 ml/min/100 g) decreased (− 34.4 ± 7.5 ml/min/100 g, p = 0.11). Sham baseline TLBF (214.3 ± 16.7 ml/min/100 g) was maintained (+ 2.5 ± 14.0 ml/min/100 g, p > 0.99) but BDL baseline TLBF (152.3 ± 18.7 ml/min/100 g) declined (− 65.5 ± 8.5 ml/min/100 g, p = 0.0004). Following LPS, there were significant differences between cohort and change in HA fraction (p = 0.03) and TLBF (p = 0.01) with BDL baseline HA fraction (46.2 ± 4.6%) reducing (− 20.9 ± 7.5%, p = 0.03) but sham baseline HA fraction (38.2 ± 2.0%) remaining unchanged (+ 2.9 ± 6.1%, p > 0.99). Animal cohort and change in systolic function interactions were significant only for heart rate (p = 0.01) and end-diastolic volume (p = 0.03). Conclusions Caval subtraction PCMRI and cardiac MRI in a rodent model of cirrhosis demonstrate significant baseline hepatic haemodynamic/cardiac differences, failure of the HA buffer response post-terlipressin and an altered HA fraction response in sepsis, informing potential translation to ACLF patients. Key Points Caval subtraction phase-contrast and cardiac MRI demonstrate: • Significant differences between cirrhotic/non-cirrhotic rodent hepatic blood flow and cardiac systolic function at baseline. • Failure of the hepatic arterial buffer response in cirrhotic rodents in response to terlipressin. • Reductions in hepatic arterial flow fraction in the setting of acute-on-chronic liver failure.

Purpose To evaluate the utility of mural and extramural sonographic features of Crohn’s Disease as potential imaging biomarkers of inflammation and fibrosis against whole-mount histological sections. Methods Twelve Crohn’s disease patients (Mean age 35(25–69), 7 males) underwent small bowel ultrasound prior to small bowel resection. Two radiologists in consensus graded multiple parameters including mural, mucosal and submucosal thickness, submucosal/mesenteric echogenicity and clarity and mural Doppler signal in 50 selected bowel cross-sections. Matching with histological sampling sites was facilitated via scanning of the resected specimen. A histopathologist scored acute and chronic inflammation, and fibrosis (using histological scoring systems) following analysis of whole mount block sections. The association between sonographic observations and histopathological scores was examined via univariable and multivariable analysis. Results In univariate analyses, bowel wall thickness (regression co-efficient and 95% CI 0.8 (0.3, 1.3) p = 0.001), mesenteric fat echogenicity (8.7(3.0, 14.5) p = 0.005), submucosal layer thickness (7.4(1.2, 13.5) p = 0.02), submucosal layer clarity (4.4(0.6, 8.2) p = 0.02) and mucosal layer thickness (4.6(1.8, 7.4) p = 0.001) were all significantly associated with acute inflammation. Mesenteric fat echogenicity (674(8.67, 52404) p = 0.009), submucosal layer thickness (79.9(2.16, 2951) p = 0.02) and mucosal layer thickness (13.6(1.54, 121) p = 0.02) were significantly associated with chronic inflammation. Submucosal layer echogenicity (p = 0.03), clarity (25.0(1.76, 356) p = 0.02) and mucosal layer thickness (53.8(3.19, 908) p = 0.006) were significantly associated with fibrosis. In multivariate analyses, wall and mucosal thickness remained significantly associated with acute inflammation (p = 0.02), mesenteric fat echogenicity with chronic inflammation (p = 0.009) and mucosal thickness (p = 0.006) with fibrosis. Conclusion Multiple sonographic parameters are associated with histological phenotypes in Crohn’s disease although there is overlap between ultrasonic stigmata of acute inflammation, chronic inflammation and fibrosis. Graphic Abstract

Abstract This review identifies and examines terms used to describe a radiological research “study” or “trial”. A taxonomy of clinical research descriptions is explained with reference to medical imaging examples. Because many descriptive terms have precise methodological implications, it is important that these terms are understood by readers and used correctly by researchers, so that the reader is not misled. Key Points • Multiple different terms are being used to describe radiological research “studies” and “trials”, and many of these terms have precise methodological implications. • Radiological researchers sometimes use titles that describe their research incorrectly. This can mislead the reader as to what was actually done. • It is important that readers and researchers understand the correct taxonomy of clinical research and that researchers adopt the correct description for their work.

Purpose To prospectively evaluate interobserver agreement for small bowel ultrasound (SBUS) in newly diagnosed and relapsing Crohn’s disease. Methods A subset of patients recruited to a prospective trial comparing the diagnostic accuracy of MR enterography and SBUS underwent a second SBUS performed by one of a pool of six practitioners, who recorded the presence, activity and location of small bowel and colonic disease. Detailed segmental mural and extra-mural observations were also scored. Interobserver variability was expressed as percentage agreement with a construct reference standard, split by patient cohort, grouping disease as present or absent. Prevalence adjusted bias adjusted kappa (PABAK), and simple percentage agreement between practitioners, irrespective of the reference standard, were calculated. Results Thirty-eight patients (11 new diagnosis, 27 relapse) were recruited from two sites. Overall percentage agreement for small bowel disease presence against the consensus reference was 82% (52–95% (95%CI)), kappa coefficient (κ) 0.64, (substantial agreement) for new diagnosis and 81%, κ 0.63 (substantial agreement) for the relapsing cohort. Agreement for colonic disease presence was 64%, κ 0.27 (fair agreement) in new diagnosis and 78%,κ 0.56 (moderate agreement) in the relapsing cohort. Simple agreement between practitioners was 84% and 87% for small bowel and colonic disease presence respectively. Practitioners agreed on small bowel disease activity in 24/27 (89%) where both identified disease. Kappa agreement for detailed mural observations ranged from κ 0.00 to 1.00. Conclusion There is substantial practitioner agreement for small bowel disease presence in newly diagnosed and relapsing CD patients, supporting wider dissemination of enteric US.

Objectives: To evaluate interobserver variability for diagnosis of disease presence and extent of small bowel and colonic Crohn’s disease using MR enterography (MRE) Methods: Data from the first 73 consecutive patients (mean age 32, 33F, 28 new diagnosis, 45 suspected relapse) recruited to a multicentre, prospective diagnostic accuracy trial evaluating MRE for small bowel Crohn’s disease were each read independently by three (from a pool of 20) radiologists. Radiologists documented presence and segmental location of small bowel Crohn’s disease and recorded morphological mural/extramural parameters for involved segments. Per patient percentage agreement for disease presence and extent were calculated against an outcome-based construct reference standard (averaged between pairs of readers). Prevalence-adjusted bias-adjusted κ (PABAK) was calculated. Results: Agreement for small bowel disease presence for new diagnosis/relapsed patients was 68%(κ = 0.36)/ 78% (κ = 0.56) and 43%(κ = 0.14)/ 53% for disease extent (κ = 0.07), respectively. For disease presence, all three radiologists agreed correctly with the reference standard in 41/59 (69%) of patients with small bowel involvement, and in 8/14 (57%) cases of without small bowel disease. Agreement was highest for multisegment disease, greater than 5 cm in length, with mural thickness>6 mm, and increased mural T2 signal. Agreement for colonic disease presence was 61% (κ = 0.21 fair agreement) for new diagnosis/ 60% (κ = 0.20, slight agreement) for relapsed patients. Conclusion: There is a reasonable agreement between radiologists for small bowel disease presence using MRE for newly diagnosed Crohn’s disease, and patients with suspected relapse, respectively. Agreement is lower for disease extent. Advances in knowledge: There is reasonable agreement between radiologists for small bowel disease presence using MRE for newly diagnosed (68%) Crohn’s disease, and patients with suspected relapse (78%). Agreement is lower for disease extent (43% new diagnosis and 53% suspected relapse).

Objectives To quantify reader agreement for the British Society of Thoracic Imaging (BSTI) diagnostic and severity classification for COVID-19 on chest radiographs (CXR), in particular agreement for an indeterminate CXR that could instigate CT imaging, from single and paired images. Methods Twenty readers (four groups of five individuals)—consultant chest (CCR), general consultant (GCR), and specialist registrar (RSR) radiologists, and infectious diseases clinicians (IDR)—assigned BSTI categories and severity in addition to modified Covid-Radiographic Assessment of Lung Edema Score (Covid-RALES), to 305 CXRs (129 paired; 2 time points) from 176 guideline-defined COVID-19 patients. Percentage agreement with a consensus of two chest radiologists was calculated for (1) categorisation to those needing CT (indeterminate) versus those that did not (classic/probable, non-COVID-19); (2) severity; and (3) severity change on paired CXRs using the two scoring systems. Results Agreement with consensus for the indeterminate category was low across all groups (28–37%). Agreement for other BSTI categories was highest for classic/probable for the other three reader groups (66–76%) compared to GCR (49%). Agreement for normal was similar across all radiologists (54–61%) but lower for IDR (31%). Agreement for a severe CXR was lower for GCR (65%), compared to the other three reader groups (84–95%). For all groups, agreement for changes across paired CXRs was modest. Conclusion Agreement for the indeterminate BSTI COVID-19 CXR category is low, and generally moderate for the other BSTI categories and for severity change, suggesting that the test, rather than readers, is limited in utility for both deciding disposition and serial monitoring. Key Points • Across different reader groups, agreement for COVID-19 diagnostic categorisation on CXR varies widely. • Agreement varies to a degree that may render CXR alone ineffective for triage, especially for indeterminate cases. • Agreement for serial CXR change is moderate, limiting utility in guiding management.

To compare the distention quality and patient experience of oral mannitol and polyethylene glycol (PEG) for MRE.This study is a retrospective, observational study of a subset of patients enrolled in a multicentre, prospective trial evaluating the diagnostic accuracy of MRE for small bowel Crohn's. Overall and segmental MRE small bowel distention, from 105 patients (64 F, mean age 37) was scored from 0 = poor to 4 = excellent by two experienced observers (68 [65%] mannitol and 37 [35%] PEG). Additionally, 130 patients (77 F, mean age 34) completed a questionnaire rating tolerability of various symptoms immediately and 2 days after MRE (85 [65%] receiving mannitol 45 [35%] receiving PEG). Distension was compared between agents and between those ingesting ≤ 1 L or1 L of mannitol using the test of proportions. Tolerability grades were collapsed into "very tolerable," "moderately tolerable," and "not tolerable."Per patient distension quality was similar between agents ("excellent" or "good" in 54% [37/68] versus 46% [17/37]) with mannitol and PEG respectively. Jejunal distension was significantly better with mannitol compared to PEG (40% [27/68] versus 14% [5/37] rated as excellent or good respectively). There was no significant difference according to the volume of mannitol ingested. Symptom tolerability was comparable between agents, although fullness following MRE was graded as "very tolerable" in 27% (12/45) of patients ingesting PEG, verses 44% (37/84) ingesting mannitol, difference 17% (95% CI 0.6 to 34%).Mannitol-based solutions and PEG generally achieve comparable distension quality and side effect profiles, although jejunal distension is better quality with mannitol. Neither distension quality nor side-effect profile is altered by ingestion of more than 1 L of mannitol.• Mannitol-based and PEG-based oral preparation agents generally achieve comparable distension quality for MRE with the exception of the jejunum which is better distended with mannitol. • Mannitol-based and PEG-based oral preparation agents used for MRE have similar side effect profiles. • Neither distension quality nor side-effect profile is altered by ingestion of more than 1 L of mannitol.

Aim Ventral hernias are increasing in prevalence and many recur despite attempted repair. To date, much of the literature is underpowered and divergent. As a result there is limited high quality evidence to inform surgeons succinctly which perioperative variables influence postoperative recurrence. This systematic review aimed to identify predictors of ventral hernia recurrence. Material and Methods PubMed was searched for studies reporting prognostic data of ventral hernia recurrence between 1 January 1995 and 1 January 2018. Extracted data described hernia type (primary/incisional), definitions of recurrence, methods used to detect recurrence, duration of follow-up, and co-morbidity. Data were extracted for all potential predictors, estimates and thresholds described. Random-effects meta-analysis was used. Bias was assessed with a modified PROBAST (Prediction model Risk Of Bias ASsessment Tool). Results Screening of 18 214 abstracts yielded 274 individual studies for inclusion. Hernia recurrence was defined in 66 studies (24.1 per cent), using 41 different unstandardized definitions. Three patient variables (female sex, age 65 years or less, and BMI greater than 25, 30, 35 or 40 kg/m2), five patient co-morbidities (smoking, diabetes, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, ASA grade III–IV, steroid use), two hernia-related variables (incisional/primary, recurrent/primary), six intraoperative variables (biological mesh, bridged repair, open versus laparoscopic surgery, suture versus mesh repair, onlay/retrorectus, intraperitoneal/retrorectus), and six postoperative variables (any complication, surgical-site occurrence, wound infection, seroma, haematoma, wound dehiscence) were identified as significant prognostic factors for hernia recurrence. Conclusions This study summarized the current evidence base for predicting ventral hernia recurrence. Results should inform best practice and future research.

Background Identification of biomarkers that predict severe Crohn’s disease is an urgent unmet research need, but existing research is piecemeal and haphazard. Objective To identify biomarkers that are potentially able to predict the development of subsequent severe Crohn’s disease. Design This was a prognostic systematic review with meta-analysis reserved for those potential predictors with sufficient existing research (defined as five or more primary studies). Data sources PubMed and EMBASE searched from inception to 1 January 2016, updated to 1 January 2018. Review methods Eligible studies were studies that compared biomarkers in patients who did or did not subsequently develop severe Crohn’s disease. We excluded biomarkers that had insufficient research evidence. A clinician and two statisticians independently extracted data relating to predictors, severe disease definitions, event numbers and outcomes, including odds/hazard ratios. We assessed risk of bias. We searched for associations with subsequent severe disease rather than precise estimates of strength. A random-effects meta-analysis was performed separately for odds ratios. Results In total, 29,950 abstracts yielded just 71 individual studies, reporting 56 non-overlapping cohorts. Five clinical biomarkers (Montreal behaviour, age, disease duration, disease location and smoking), two serological biomarkers (anti-Saccharomyces cerevisiae antibodies and anti-flagellin antibodies) and one genetic biomarker (nucleotide-binding oligomerisation domain-containing protein 2) displayed statistically significant prognostic potential. Overall, the strongest association with subsequent severe disease was identified for Montreal B2 and B3 categories (odds ratio 4.09 and 6.25, respectively). Limitations Definitions of severe disease varied widely, and some studies confounded diagnosis and prognosis. Risk of bias was rated as ‘high’ in 92% of studies overall. Some biomarkers that are used regularly in daily practice, for example C-reactive protein, were studied too infrequently for meta-analysis. Conclusions Research for individual biomarkers to predict severe Crohn’s disease is scant, heterogeneous and at a high risk of bias. Despite a large amount of potential research, we encountered relatively few biomarkers with data sufficient for meta-analysis, identifying only eight biomarkers with potential predictive capability. Future work We will use existing data sets to develop and then validate a predictive model based on the potential predictors identified by this systematic review. Contingent on the outcome of that research, a prospective external validation may prove clinically desirable. Study registration This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42016029363. Funding This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 25, No. 45. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.