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This paper analyzes the stability of optimal policies in the long-run stochastic control framework with an averaged risk-sensitive criterion for discrete-time MDPs on finite state-action space. In particular, we study the robustness of optimal controls when perturbations to the risk-aversion parameter are applied, and investigate the Blackwell property, together with its link to the risk-sensitive vanishing discount approximation framework. Finally, we present examples that help to better understand the intricacies of the risk-sensitive control framework.

The assessment of risk based on historical data faces many challenges, in particular due to the limited amount of available data, lack of stationarity, and heavy tails. While estimation on a short-term horizon for less extreme percentiles tends to be reasonably accurate, extending it to longer time horizons or extreme percentiles poses significant difficulties. The application of theoretical risk scaling laws to address this issue has been extensively explored in the literature. This paper presents a novel approach to scaling a given risk estimator, ensuring that the estimated capital reserve is robust and conservatively estimates the risk. We develop a simple statistical framework that allows efficient risk scaling and has a direct link to backtesting performance. Our method allows time scaling beyond the conventional square-root-of-time rule, enables risk transfers, such as those involved in economic capital allocation, and could be used for unbiased risk estimation in small sample settings. To demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach, we provide various examples related to the estimation of value-at-risk and expected shortfall together with a short empirical study analysing the impact of our method.

In this paper we study the problem of Multiplicative Poisson Equation (MPE) bounded solution existence in the generic discrete-time setting. Assuming mixing and boundedness of the risk-reward function, we investigate what conditions should be imposed on the underlying non-controlled probability kernel or the reward function in order for the MPE bounded solution to always exists. In particular, we consolidate span-norm framework based results and derive an explicit sharp bound that needs to be imposed on the cost function to guarantee the bounded solution existence under mixing. Also, we study the properties which the probability kernel must satisfy to ensure existence of bounded MPE for any generic risk-reward function and characterise process behaviour in the complement of the invariant measure support. Finally, we present numerous examples and stochastic-dominance based arguments that help to better understand the intricacies that emerge when the ergodic risk-neutral mean operator is replaced with ergodic risk-sensitive entropy., Comment: The final (published) version of the article has been substantialy revised

In this paper, we investigate the effects of applying generalised (non-exponential) discounting on a long-run impulse control problem for a Feller-Markov process. We show that the optimal value of the discounted problem is the same as the optimal value of its undiscounted version. Next, we prove that an optimal strategy for the undiscounted discrete time functional is also optimal for the discrete-time discounted criterion and nearly optimal for the continuous-time discounted one. This shows that the discounted problem, being time-inconsistent in nature, admits a time-consistent solution. Also, instead of a complex time-dependent Bellman equation one may consider its simpler time-independent version., Comment: Corrected version

Controlled discrete time Markov processes are studied first with long run general discounting functional. It is shown that optimal strategies for average reward per unit time problem are also optimal for average generally discounting functional. Then long run risk sensitive reward functional with general discounting is considered. When risk factor is positive then optimal value of such reward functional is dominated by the reward functional corresponding to the long run risk sensitive control. In the case of negative risk factor we get an asymptotical result, which says that optimal average reward per unit time control is nearly optimal for long run risk sensitive reward functional with general discounting, assuming that risk factor is close to $0$. For this purpose we show in Appendix upper estimates for large deviations of weighted empirical measures, which are of independent interest.

In the paper adapting Krein Rutman theory we show the existence of solutions to the long run risk sensitive control problem for controlled discrete time Markov processes over locally compact separable metric spaces.

We consider a long-run impulse control problem for a generic Markov process with a multiplicative reward functional. We construct a solution to the associated Bellman equation and provide a verification result. The argument is based on the probabilistic properties of the underlying process combined with the Krein-Rutman theorem applied to the specific non-linear operator. Also, it utilises the approximation of the problem in the bounded domain and with the help of the dyadic time-grid., Comment: 26 pages

This paper adopts a tool from computational topology, the Euler characteristic curve (ECC) of a sample, to perform one- and two-sample goodness of fit tests. We call our procedure TopoTests. The presented tests work for samples of arbitrary dimension, having comparable power to the state-of-the-art tests in the one-dimensional case. It is demonstrated that the type I error of TopoTests can be controlled and their type II error vanishes exponentially with increasing sample size. Extensive numerical simulations of TopoTests are conducted to demonstrate their power for samples of various sizes., Comment: 26 pages, 17 figures, improved exposition, added new section 6. Final version, to appear in Statistics and Computing

In this paper we consider impulse control of continuous time Markov processes with average cost per unit time functional. This problem is approximated using impulse control problems stopped at the first exit time from increasing sequence of open sets. We find solution to Bellman equation corresponding to the original problem and show that stopped impulse control problems approximate optimal value of the cost functional.

In this paper we consider a discrete-time risk sensitive portfolio optimization over a long time horizon with proportional transaction costs. We show that within the log-return i.i.d. framework the solution to a suitable Bellman equation exists under minimal assumptions and can be used to characterize the optimal strategies for both risk-averse and risk-seeking cases. Moreover, using numerical examples, we show how a Bellman equation analysis can be used to construct or refine optimal trading strategies in the presence of transaction costs.

In this paper we consider an infinite time horizon risk-sensitive optimal stopping problem for a Feller--Markov process with an unbounded terminal cost function. We show that in the unbounded case an associated Bellman equation may have multiple solutions and we give a probabilistic interpretation for the minimal and the maximal one. Also, we show how to approximate them using finite time horizon problems. The analysis, covering both discrete and continuous time case, is supported with illustrative examples., Comment: 32 pages, added Example 7, several rearrangements

In this paper we consider discrete and continuous time risk sensitive optimal stopping problem. Using suitable properties of the underlying Feller-Markov process we prove continuity of the optimal stopping value function and provide formula for the optimal stopping policy. Next, we show how to link continuous time framework with its discrete time analogue. By considering suitable approximations, we obtain uniform convergence of the corresponding value functions.

In this paper we consider long-run risk sensitive average cost impulse control applied to a continuous-time Feller-Markov process. Using the probabilistic approach, we show how to get a solution to a suitable continuous-time Bellman equation and link it with the impulse control problem. The optimal strategy for the underlying problem is constructed as a limit of dyadic impulse strategies by exploiting regularity properties of the linked risk sensitive optimal stopping value functions. In particular, this shows that the discretized setting could be used to approximate near optimal strategies for the underlying continuous time control problem, which facilitates the usage of the standard approximation tools. For completeness, we present examples of processes that could be embedded into our framework.

In this paper long-run risk sensitive optimisation problem is studied with dyadic impulse control applied to continuous-time Feller-Markov process. In contrast to the existing literature, focus is put on unbounded and non-uniformly ergodic case by adapting the weight norm approach. In particular, it is shown how to combine geometric drift with local minorisation property in order to extend local span-contraction approach when the process as well as the linked reward/cost functions are unbounded. For any predefined risk-aversion parameter, the existence of solution to suitable Bellman equation is shown and linked to the underlying stochastic control problem. For completeness, examples of uncontrolled processes that satisfy the geometric drift assumption are provided.

We study a portfolio selection problem in a continuous-time It\^o-Markov additive market with prices of financial assets described by Markov additive processes which combine L\'evy processes and regime switching models. Thus the model takes into account two sources of risk: the jump diffusion risk and the regime switching risk. For this reason the market is incomplete. We complete the market by enlarging it with the use of a set of Markovian jump securities, Markovian power-jump securities and impulse regime switching securities. Moreover, we give conditions under which the market is asymptotic-arbitrage-free. We solve the portfolio selection problem in the It\^o-Markov additive market for the power utility and the logarithmic utility.

IIn this paper we provide predictable and chaotic representations for It\^{o}-Markov additive processes $X$. Such a process is governed by a finite-state CTMC $J$ which allows one to modify the parameters of the It\^{o}-jump process (in so-called regime switching manner). In addition, the transition of $J$ triggers the jump of $X$ distributed depending on the states of $J$ just prior to the transition. This family of processes includes Markov modulated It\^{o}-L\'evy processes and Markov additive processes. The derived chaotic representation of a square-integrable random variable is given as a sum of stochastic integrals with respect to some explicitly constructed orthogonal martingales. We identify the predictable representation of a square-integrable martingale as a sum of stochastic integrals of predictable processes with respect to Brownian motion and power-jumps martingales related to all the jumps appearing in the model. This result generalizes the seminal result of Jacod-Yor and is of importance in financial mathematics. The derived representation then allows one to enlarge the incomplete market by a series of power-jump assets and to price all market-derivatives.

We study optimal stopping of Feller-Markov processes to maximise an undiscounted functional consisting of running and terminal rewards. In a finite-time horizon setting, we extend classical results to unbounded rewards. In infinite horizon, we resort to ergodic structure of the underlying process. When the running reward is mildly penalising for delaying stopping (i.e., its expectation under the invariant measure is negative), we show that an optimal stopping time exists and is given in a standard form as the time of first entrance to a closed set. This paper generalises Palczewski, Stettner (2014), Stoch Proc Appl 124(12) 3887-3920, by relaxing boundedness of rewards., Comment: arXiv admin note: substantial text overlap with arXiv:1606.08731

This paper studies maximisation of an average-cost-per-unit-time ergodic functional over impulse strategies controlling a Feller-Markov process. The uncontrolled process is assumed to be ergodic but, unlike the extant literature, the convergence to invariant measure does not have to be uniformly geometric in total variation norm; in particular, we allow for non-uniform geometric or polynomial convergence. Cost of an impulse may be unbounded, e.g., proportional to the distance the process is shifted. We show that the optimal value does not depend on the initial state and provide optimal or $\ve$-optimal strategies., Comment: 25 pages; This is an updated version after spinning off two sections of the paper as a basis for arxiv:1607.06018

In the paper portfolio optimization over long run risk sensitive criterion is considered. It is assumed that economic factors which stimulate asset prices are ergodic but non necessarily uniformly ergodic. Solution to suitable Bellman equation using local span contraction with weighted norms is shown. The form of optimal strategy is presented and examples of market models satisfying imposed assumptions are shown.

We study an infinite horizon optimal stopping problem which arises naturally in the optimal timing of a firm/project sale or in the valuation of natural resources: the functional to be maximised is a sum of a discounted running reward and a discounted final reward. The running and final rewards as well as the instantaneous interest rate (used for calculating discount factors) depend on a Feller-Markov process modelling the underlying randomness in the world, such as prices of stocks, prices of natural resources (gas, oil, etc.), or factors influencing the interest rate. For years, it had seemed sensible to assume that interest rates were uniformly separated from 0, which is needed for the existing theory to work. However, recent developments in Japan and in Europe showed that interest rates can get arbitrarily close to 0. In this paper we establish the feasibility of the stopping problem, prove the existence of optimal stopping times and a variational characterisation (in the viscosity sense) of the value function when interest rates are NOT uniformly separated from 0. Our results rely on certain ergodic properties of the underlying (non-uniformly) ergodic Markov process. We provide several criteria for diffusions and jump-diffusions.

We explore properties of the value function and existence of optimal stopping times for functionals with discontinuities related to the boundary of an open (possibly unbounded) set $\mathcal{O}$. The stopping horizon is either random, equal to the first exit from the set $\mathcal{O}$, or fixed: finite or infinite. The payoff function is continuous with a possible jump at the boundary of $\mathcal{O}$. Using a generalization of the penalty method we derive a numerical algorithm for approximation of the value function for general Feller-Markov processes and show existence of optimal or $\epsilon$-optimal stopping times.

This paper studies a portfolio optimization problem in a discrete-time Markovian model of a financial market, in which asset price dynamics depend on an external process of economic factors. There are transaction costs with a structure that covers, in particular, the case of fixed plus proportional costs. We prove that there exists a self-financing trading strategy maximizing the average growth rate of the portfolio wealth. We show that this strategy has a Markovian form. Our result is obtained by large deviations estimates on empirical measures of the price process and by a generalization of the vanishing discount method to discontinuous transition operators., Comment: 32 pages

We consider a discrete-time financial market model with finite time horizon and give conditions which guarantee the existence of an optimal strategy for the problem of maximizing expected terminal utility. Equivalent martingale measures are constructed using optimal strategies., Comment: Published at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/105051605000000089 in the Annals of Applied Probability (http://www.imstat.org/aap/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org)