1. A Validated Model for Sudden Cardiac Death Risk Prediction in Pediatric Hypertrophic Cardiomyopathy
- Author
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Miron, A, Lafreniere-Roula, M, Steve Fan, C-P, Armstrong, KR, Dragulescu, A, Papaz, T, Manlhiot, C, Kaufman, B, Butts, RJ, Gardin, L, Stephenson, EA, Howard, TS, Aziz, PF, Balaji, S, Ladouceur, VB, Benson, LN, Colan, SD, Godown, J, Henderson, HT, Ingles, J, Jeewa, A, Jefferies, JL, Lal, AK, Mathew, J, Jean-St-Michel, E, Michels, M, Nakano, SJ, Olivotto, I, Parent, JJ, Pereira, AC, Semsarian, C, Whitehill, RD, Wittekind, SG, Russell, MW, Conway, J, Richmond, ME, Villa, C, Weintraub, RG, Rossano, JW, Kantor, PF, Ho, CY, Mital, S, Miron, A, Lafreniere-Roula, M, Steve Fan, C-P, Armstrong, KR, Dragulescu, A, Papaz, T, Manlhiot, C, Kaufman, B, Butts, RJ, Gardin, L, Stephenson, EA, Howard, TS, Aziz, PF, Balaji, S, Ladouceur, VB, Benson, LN, Colan, SD, Godown, J, Henderson, HT, Ingles, J, Jeewa, A, Jefferies, JL, Lal, AK, Mathew, J, Jean-St-Michel, E, Michels, M, Nakano, SJ, Olivotto, I, Parent, JJ, Pereira, AC, Semsarian, C, Whitehill, RD, Wittekind, SG, Russell, MW, Conway, J, Richmond, ME, Villa, C, Weintraub, RG, Rossano, JW, Kantor, PF, Ho, CY, and Mital, S
- Abstract
BACKGROUND: Hypertrophic cardiomyopathy is the leading cause of sudden cardiac death (SCD) in children and young adults. Our objective was to develop and validate a SCD risk prediction model in pediatric hypertrophic cardiomyopathy to guide SCD prevention strategies. METHODS: In an international multicenter observational cohort study, phenotype-positive patients with isolated hypertrophic cardiomyopathy <18 years of age at diagnosis were eligible. The primary outcome variable was the time from diagnosis to a composite of SCD events at 5-year follow-up: SCD, resuscitated sudden cardiac arrest, and aborted SCD, that is, appropriate shock following primary prevention implantable cardioverter defibrillators. Competing risk models with cause-specific hazard regression were used to identify and quantify clinical and genetic factors associated with SCD. The cause-specific regression model was implemented using boosting, and tuned with 10 repeated 4-fold cross-validations. The final model was fitted using all data with the tuned hyperparameter value that maximizes the c-statistic, and its performance was characterized by using the c-statistic for competing risk models. The final model was validated in an independent external cohort (SHaRe [Sarcomeric Human Cardiomyopathy Registry], n=285). RESULTS: Overall, 572 patients met eligibility criteria with 2855 patient-years of follow-up. The 5-year cumulative proportion of SCD events was 9.1% (14 SCD, 25 resuscitated sudden cardiac arrests, and 14 aborted SCD). Risk predictors included age at diagnosis, documented nonsustained ventricular tachycardia, unexplained syncope, septal diameter z-score, left ventricular posterior wall diameter z score, left atrial diameter z score, peak left ventricular outflow tract gradient, and presence of a pathogenic variant. Unlike in adults, left ventricular outflow tract gradient had an inverse association, and family history of SCD had no association with SCD. Clinical and clinical/genetic mode
- Published
- 2020