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Protected areas (PA) are an effective means of conserving biodiversity and protecting suites of valuable ecosystem services. Currently, many nations and international governments use proportional area protected as a critical metric for assessing progress towards biodiversity conservation. However, the areal and other common metrics do not assess the effectiveness of PA networks, nor do they assess how representative PA are of the ecosystems they aim to protect. Topography, stand structure, and land cover are all key drivers of biodiversity within forest environments, and are well-suited as indicators to assess the representation of PA. Here, we examine the PA network in British Columbia, Canada, through drivers derived from freely-available data and remote sensing products across the provincial biogeoclimatic ecosystem classification system. We examine biases in the PA network by elevation, forest disturbances, and forest structural attributes, including height, cover, and biomass by comparing a random sample of protected and unprotected pixels. Results indicate that PA are commonly biased towards high-elevation and alpine land covers, and that forest structural attributes of the park network are often significantly different in protected versus unprotected areas (426 out of 496 forest structural attributes found to be different; p 0.01). Analysis of forest structural attributes suggests that establishing additional PA could ensure representation of various forest structure regimes across British Columbia's ecosystems. We conclude that these approaches using free and open remote sensing data are highly transferable and can be accomplished using consistent datasets to assess PA representations globally.

The effects of climate change on marine ecosystems are accelerating. Identifying and protecting areas of the ocean where conditions are most stable may provide another tool for adaptation to climate change. To date, research on potential marine climate refugia has focused on tropical systems, particularly coral reefs. We examined a northeast Pacific temperate region – Canada’s Pacific – toidentify areas where physical conditions are stable or changing slowly. We analyzed the rate and consistency of change for climatic variables where recent historical data were available for the whole region, which included sea surface temperature, sea surface height, and chlorophyll a . We found that some regions have been relatively stable with respect to these variables. In discussions with experts in the oceanography of this region, we identified general characteristics that may limit exposure to climate change. We used climate models for sea surface temperature and sea surface height to assess projected future changes. Climate projections indicate that large or moderate changes will occur throughout virtually the entire area and that small changes will occur in only limited portions of the coast. Combining past and future areas of stability in all three examined variables to identify potential climate refugia indicates that only 0.27% of the study region may be insulated from current and projected future change. A greater proportion of the study region (11%) was stable in two of the three variables. Some of these areas overlap with oceanographic features that are thought to limit climate change exposure. This approach allowed for an assessment of potential climate refugia that could also have applications in other regions and systems, but revealed that there are unlikely to be many areas unaffected by climate change.

Bayesian belief networks are finding increasing application in adaptive ecosystem management where data are limited and uncertainty is high. The combined effect of multiple stressors is one area where considerable uncertainty exists. Our study area, the Great Barrier Reef is simultaneously data-rich – concerning the physical and biological environment – and data-poor – concerning the effects of interacting stressors. We used a formal expert-elicitation process to obtain estimates of outcomes associated with a variety of scenarios that combined stressors both within and outside the control of local managers. There was much stronger consensus about certain stressor effects – such as between temperature anomalies and bleaching – than others, such as the relationship between water quality and coral cover. In general, the expert outlook for the Great Barrier Reef is pessimistic, with the potential for climate change effects potentially to overshadow the effects of local management actions.

Concern is growing about the potential effects of interacting multiple stressors, especially as the global climate changes. We provide a comprehensive review of multiple stressor interactions in coral reef ecosystems, which are widely considered to be one of the most sensitive ecosystems to global change. First, we synthesized coral reef studies that examined interactions of two or more stressors, highlighting stressor interactions (where one stressor directly influences another) and potentially synergistic effects on response variables (where two stressors interact to produce an effect that is greater than purely additive). For stressor-stressor interactions, we found 176 studies that examined at least 2 of the 13 stressors of interest. Applying network analysis to analyze relationships between stressors, we found that pathogens were exacerbated by more costressors than any other stressor, with ca. 78% of studies reporting an enhancing effect by another stressor. Sedimentation, storms, and water temperature directly affected the largest number of other stressors. Pathogens, nutrients, and crown-of-thorns starfish were the most-influenced stressors. We found 187 studies that examined the effects of two or more stressors on a third dependent variable. The interaction of irradiance and temperature on corals has been the subject of more research (62 studies, 33% of the total) than any other combination of stressors, with many studies reporting a synergistic effect on coral symbiont photosynthetic performance (n = 19). Second, we performed a quantitative meta-analysis of existing literature on this most-studied interaction (irradiance and temperature). We found that the mean effect size of combined treatments was statistically indistinguishable from a purely additive interaction, although it should be noted that the sample size was relatively small (n = 26). Overall, although in aggregate a large body of literature examines stressor effects on coral reefs and coral organisms, considerable gaps remain for numerous stressor interactions and effects, and insufficient quantitative evidence exists to suggest that the prevailing type of stressor interaction is synergistic.

Coral bleaching and disease have often been hypothesized to be mutually reinforcing or co-occurring, but much of the research supporting this has only drawn an implicit connection through common environmental predictors. In this study, we examine whether an explicit relationship between white syndrome and bleaching exists using assemblage-level monitoring data from up to 112 sites on reef slopes spread throughout the Great Barrier Reef over 11 years of monitoring. None of the temperature metrics commonly used to predict mass bleaching performed strongly when applied to these data. Furthermore, the inclusion of bleaching as a predictor did not improve model skill over baseline models for predicting white syndrome. Similarly, the inclusion of white syndrome as a predictor did not improve models of bleaching. Evidence for spatial co-occurrence of bleaching and white syndrome at the assemblage level in this data set was also very weak. These results suggest the hypothesized relationship between bleaching and disease events may be weaker than previously thought, and more likely to be driven by common responses to environmental stressors, rather than directly facilitating one another.

1. Many marine ecosystems are in critical decline. 2. Iterative assessments of the costs, benefits, and problems associated with conservation initiatives such as marine protected areas (MPAs) can help to improve their effectiveness. 3. The increasingly popular framework of marine spatial planning (MSP) provides opportunities for improving marine management but also needs to avoid similar shortfalls to those identified for MPAs. 4. There is a critical need for realistic presentation of the scope and capacity of MPAs to counteract biodiversity loss, both in isolation and as part of marine spatial planning or other approaches to complementary management. 5. The purpose of this viewpoint is to generate increased momentum to integrate MPAs with other strategies and to recognize the important advances that have been made in MPA planning, implementation and management.

Coral reefs are in dire need of effective governance, yet the science and planning of coral reef protected areas largely stem from wealthy, developed nations, with very different social, economic, and cultural characteristics than the nations in which most coral reefs occur. Much has been written about coral reefs and the use of marine protected areas (MPAs) as a management tool, but emerging trends and recommendations have not been adequately synthesized for the context of developing nations. We found that 60% of studies on MPA design and planning are from North America, Australia, Europe and the Mediterranean. As a result, many recommendations about how best to design, implement and manage coral reef protected areas may need to be adapted to address the needs of other nations. Based on the literature and our experiences, we review three emerging trends in MPA design and management, and relate these to the context of coral reef developing nations. First, MPA design is evolving to merge community (usually bottom-up) and regional (usually top-down) planning approaches. Second, the increasing recognition that social and ecological systems are tightly coupled is leading to planning and management of MPAs that better incorporate the human dimensions of reef systems and their linkages with reef ecology. Finally, there has been a trend toward adaptive management of MPAs and the emergence of related ideas about adaptive planning. These three trends provide crucial and much needed opportunities for improving MPAs and their effectiveness in coral reef nations.

Steller sea lions (Eumetopias jubatus) are known to have occupied the same terrestrial haul-out and rookery sites across the North Pacific Rim for centuries, but it is not known why they choose and stay at these locations, or what defines their preferred habitat. Classifying and comparing the shoreline type of haul-outs and rookeries against sites not used by Steller sea lions showed that they preferentially locate their haul-outs and rookeries on exposed rocky shorelines and wave-cut platforms. However, no preference was found for selecting rookeries on sheltered shore types. Shoreline types used less frequently by sea lions included fine-to-medium-grained sand beaches, mixed sand and gravel beaches, gravel beaches, and sheltered rocky shores. Quantifying the shoreline types used by sea lions confirms anecdotal reports of habitat preferences and may prove useful in identifying and protecting sea lion terrestrial habitat, or in forecasting how climate change might affect the distribution of sea lions.

Multiple stressors are an increasing concern in the management and conservation of ecosystems, and have been identified as a key gap in research. Coral reefs are one example of an ecosystem where management of local stressors may be a way of mitigating or delaying the effects of climate change. Predicting how multiple stressors interact, particularly in a spatially explicit fashion, is a difficult challenge. Here we use a combination of an expert-elicited Bayesian network (BN) and spatial environmental data to examine how hypothetical scenarios of climate change and local management would result in different outcomes for coral reefs on the Great Barrier Reef (GBR), Australia. Parameterizing our BN using the mean responses from our experts resulted in predictions of limited efficacy of local management in combating the effects of climate change. However, there was considerable variability in expert responses and uncertainty was high. Many reefs within the central GBR appear to be at risk of further decline based on the pessimistic opinions of our expert pool. Further parameterization of the model as more data and knowledge become available could improve predictive power. Our approach serves as a starting point for subsequent work that can fine-tune parameters and explore uncertainties in predictions of responses to management.