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Paddy rice cultivation is a vital food source but also a significant contributor to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, particularly methane. Management measures such as improved water management and fertilization are being pursued to sustain rice production while cutting down the emissions. However, climate change may pose further challenges for sustainable rice agriculture by either impacting rice production or GHG emissions. Based on a database consisting of 1216 observations across China, we established machine learning models predicting rice yield and GHG emissions, taking into account climate, soil, and management variables. We tested three machine learning methods including random forest, support vector machine and artificial neural networks. The models were trained on 70% of the dataset with the remaining 30% used to evaluate the model performance. Random forest performed best with R2 of 0.59 to 0.72 and modelling efficiency of 52% to 72%. Farmland management emerged as the most important variable to the model prediction, followed by climate and soil variables. Rice production and GHG emissions were estimated to be 245.36 Tg and 218.95 Tg CO2-eq in 2018, respectively. By the year 2050, rice yield was expected to experience a modest decrease ranging from 0.6% to 1.2% due to the combined effects of global change variables, but GHG emissions were projected to increase by 2.1% to 4.9% under different climate change scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways) in China. A large spatial variability in the impact of climate change was observed, and climate change will have the most significant impact in the Northeast agricultural region of China due to the warming effect. Through the analysis of region-specific farmland management scenarios, this study underscores a “Code Red” situation, signifying that future climate change could pose unprecedented risks to the sustainability of rice production in China, despite ongoing management improvements.

Improving the prediction of crop production is critical for strategy development associated with global food security, particularly as the climate continues to change. Process-based ecosystem models are increasingly used for simulating global agricultural production. However, such simulations often use a single crop variety in global assessments, implying that major crops are identical across all regions of the world. To address this limitation, we applied a Bayesian approach to calibrate regional types of maize ( Zea mays L), capturing the aggregated traits of local varieties, for DayCent ecosystem model simulations, using global crop production data from 2001 to 2013. We selected major cropping regions from the FAO Global Agro-Environmental Stratification as a basis for the regionalization and identified the most important model parameters through a global sensitivity analysis. We calibrated DayCent using the sampling importance resampling algorithm and found significant improvement in DayCent simulations of maize yields with the calibrated regional varieties. Compared to a single type of maize for the world, the regionalization of maize leads to reductions in root mean squared error of 11%, 31%, 27%, 30%, 19%, and 27% and reductions in bias of 59%, 59%, 50%, 81%, 32%, and 56% for Africa, East Asia, Europe, North America, South America, and South and Southeast Asia, respectively. We also found the optimum parameter values of radiation use efficiency are positively correlated with the income level of different regions, which indicates that breeding has enhanced the photosynthetic efficiency of maize in developed countries. There may also be opportunities for expanding crop breeding programs in developing countries to enhance photosynthesis efficiency and reduce the yield gap in these regions. This study highlights the importance of representing regional variation in crop types for achieving accurate predictions of crop yields.

Rice (Oryza sativa L.) is cultivated as a major crop in most Asian countries and its production is expected to increase to meet the demands of a growing population. This is expected to increase greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from paddy rice ecosystems, unless mitigation measures are in place. It is therefore important to assess GHG mitigation potential whilst maintaining yield. Using the process-based ecosystem model DayCent, a spatial analysis was carried out in a rice harvested area in Bangladesh for the period 1996 to 2015, considering the impacts on soil organic carbon (SOC) sequestration, GHG emissions and yield under various mitigation options. An integrated management (IM, a best management practice) considering reduced water, tillage with residue management, reduced mineral nitrogen fertilizer and manure, led to a net offset by, on average, −2.43 t carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2-eq.) ha−1 year−1 (GHG removal) and a reduction in yield-scaled emissions intensity by −0.55 to −0.65 t CO2-eq. t−1 yield. Under integrated management, it is possible to increase SOC stocks on average by 1.7% per year in rice paddies in Bangladesh, which is nearly 4 times the rate of change targeted by the “4 per mille” initiative arising from the Paris Climate Agreement.

Landscape scale quantification enables farmers to pool resources and expertise. However, the problem remains of how to quantify these gains. This article considers current greenhouse gas (GHG) quantification methods that can be used in a landscape scale analysis in terms of relevance to areas dominated by smallholders in developing countries. In landscape scale carbon accounting frameworks, measurements are an essential element. Sampling strategies need careful design to account for all pools/fluxes and to ensure judicious use of resources. Models can be used to scale-up measurements and fill data gaps. In recent years a number of accessible models and calculators have been developed which can be used at the landscape scale in developing country areas. Some are based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) method and others on dynamic ecosystem models. They have been developed for a range of different purposes and therefore vary in terms of accuracy and usability. Landscape scale assessments of GHGs require a combination of ground sampling, use of data from census, remote sensing (RS) or other sources and modelling. Fitting of all of these aspects together needs to be performed carefully to minimize uncertainties and maximize the use of scarce resources. This is especially true in heterogeneous landscapes dominated by smallholders in developing countries.

Agricultural lands occupy 37% of the earth's land surface. Agriculture accounts for 52 and 84% of global anthropogenic methane and nitrous oxide emissions. Agricultural soils may also act as a sink or source for CO2, but the net flux is small. Many agricultural practices can potentially mitigate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, the most prominent of which are improved cropland and grazing land management and restoration of degraded lands and cultivated organic soils. Lower, but still significant mitigation potential is provided by water and rice management, set-aside, land use change and agroforestry, livestock management and manure management. The global technical mitigation potential from agriculture (excluding fossil fuel offsets from biomass) by 2030, considering all gases, is estimated to be approximately 5500–6000Mt CO2-eq.yr−1, with economic potentials of approximately 1500–1600, 2500–2700 and 4000–4300Mt CO2-eq.yr−1 at carbon prices of up to 20, up to 50 and up to 100 US$ t CO2-eq.−1, respectively. In addition, GHG emissions could be reduced by substitution of fossil fuels for energy production by agricultural feedstocks (e.g. crop residues, dung and dedicated energy crops). The economic mitigation potential of biomass energy from agriculture is estimated to be 640, 2240 and 16 000Mt CO2-eq.yr−1 at 0–20, 0–50 and 0–100 US$ t CO2-eq.−1, respectively. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]