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Abstract Background Regulations mandating kilocalorie (kcal) labelling for large businesses in the out-of-home food sector (OHFS) came into force on 6th April 2022 as a policy to reduce obesity in England. To provide indicators of potential reach and impact, kcal labelling practices were studied in the OHFS, and customer purchasing and consumption behaviours prior to implementation of the mandatory kcal labelling policy in England. Methods From August-December 2021, large OHFS businesses subject to the kcal labelling regulations were visited prior to regulations coming into force on 6th April 2022. 3308 customers were recruited from 330 outlets and collected survey information on the number of kcal purchased and consumed by customers, customers’ knowledge of the kcal content of their purchases, and customers noticing and use of kcal labelling. In a subset of 117 outlets, data was collected on nine recommended kcal labelling practices. Results The average number of kcals purchased (1013 kcal, SD = 632 kcal) was high with 69% of purchases exceeding the recommendation of a maximum of 600 kcal per meal. Participants underestimated the energy content of their purchased meals by on average 253 kcal (SD = 644 kcals). In outlets providing kcal labelling in which customer survey data was collected, a minority of customers reported noticing (21%) or using (20%) kcal labelling. Out of the 117 outlets assessed for kcal labelling practices, 24 (21%) provided any in-store kcal labelling. None of the outlets met all nine aspects of recommended labelling practices. Conclusions Prior to implementation of 2022 kcal labelling policy, the majority of sampled OHFS large business outlets in England did not provide kcal labelling. Few customers noticed or used the labels and on average customers purchased and consumed substantially more energy than recommended in public health guidelines. The findings suggest that reliance on voluntary action for kcal labelling implementation failed to produce widespread, consistent, and adequate kcal labelling practices.

BackgroundPoor mental health is associated with obesity, but existing studies are either cross-sectional or have long time periods between measurements of mental health and weight. It is, therefore, unclear how small fluctuations in mental wellbeing within individuals predict bodyweight over short time periods, e.g. within the next month. Studying this could identify modifiable determinants of weight changes and highlight opportunities for early intervention.Methods2,133 UK adults from a population-based cohort completed monthly mental health and weight measurements using a mobile app over a period of 6-9 months. We used random intercept regression models to examine longitudinal associations of depressive symptoms, anxiety symptoms and stress with subsequent weight. In sub-group analyses, we included interaction terms of mental health variables with baseline characteristics. Mental health variables were split into "between-individual" measurements (= the participant's median score across all timepoints) and "within-individual" measurements (at each timepoint, the difference between the participant's current score and their median).ResultsWithin-individual variation in depressive symptoms predicted subsequent weight (0.045kg per unit of depressive symptom severity, 95% CI 0.021-0.069). We found evidence of a moderation effect of baseline BMI on the association between within-individual fluctuation in depressive symptoms and subsequent weight: The association was only apparent in those with overweight/obesity, and it was stronger in those with obesity than those with overweight (BMIConclusionIn this exploratory study, individuals with overweight or obesity were more vulnerable to weight gain following higher-than-usual (for that individual) depressive symptoms than individuals with a BMI

Introduction Precision medicine approaches to obesity aim to maximise treatment effectiveness by matching weight management interventions (WMIs) to characteristics of individuals, such as eating behaviour traits (EBTs). Acceptance and commitment therapy (ACT)-based WMIs may address EBTs such as emotional and uncontrolled eating more effectively than standard interventions, and might be most effective in people with high levels of these traits. However, few studies have examined this directly. We will examine (a) whether ACT-based interventions are more effective for people with certain levels of EBTs (ie, moderation) and (b) whether ACT-based interventions operate through changes in EBTs (ie, mediation).Methods and analysis This individual participant data (IPD) meta-analysis will follow the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses of Individual Participant Data guidance. We will include studies on ACT-based WMIs that assessed EBTs in people with a body mass index ≥25 kg/m2. We identified studies by screening studies included in a previous review of third wave cognitive behavioural interventions, and updating the search to 20 June 2022. We will request IPD from eligible published and unpublished studies. We will harmonise and re-analyse data using a two-stage random effects meta-analysis pooling within-trial interactions to investigate moderating effects and using a one-stage simultaneous equation model to examine mediating effects. We will assess the risk of bias in included studies using the Cochrane Risk of Bias tool 2 and the Risk of Bias in Non-randomised Studies of Interventions tool.Ethics and dissemination Ethical approval has been obtained from the Cambridge Psychology Research Ethics Committee (Application No: PRE.2023.121). Data sharing will follow data transfer agreements and coauthorship will be offered to investigators contributing data. Findings will be disseminated through peer-reviewed journals and conferences and will contribute to the lead author’s PhD thesis.PROSPERO registration number CRD42022359691.

Introduction: Cycling infrastructure policies yield health and environmental benefits. However, design variations may impact intervention effectiveness. This study explored relationships between infrastructure form (e.g., width, length) and function (e.g., access, safety) and cycling behavior. Methods: We analysed data from a study evaluating 15 streets with new cycling infrastructure improvements in Paris and Lyon. Comparison streets were chosen based on having similar pre-intervention cycling trends and periods of data availability as intervention streets. The outcome was the difference in daily cycle counts between intervention and control streets. We conducted a virtual street audit with Google Street View to assess 14 street features and derived a function score based on 7 components. We used induced smoothed LASSO regression to identify relevant form or function variables associated with cycle count changes. Results: The effects of new cycling infrastructure varied, with significant increases at half (7/15) of the sites and no change at the rest. For every 1 SD increase in cycle lane length, an increase of 83 cycle counts per day (95% CI 32, 134) was observed. Removing car parking and traffic lanes were associated with an increase of 197 counts (108, 285) and 154 counts (58, 249), respectively. Adding a public transport stop showed a negative association with a change of −83 counts (−158, −8). Functions positively associated with cycle count changes were improving safety (75, 95% CI 8, 141) and space (72, 95% CI 10, 135). Conclusions: This study sheds light on cycling infrastructure design influences on cycling behavior. These insights can help guide future policies and infrastructure development to maximize cycling benefits for health and the environment.

Abstract Background An inverse association between vitamin D status and cardiometabolic risk has been reported but this relationship may have been affected by residual confounding from adiposity and physical activity due to imprecise measures of these variables. We aimed to investigate the relationship between serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25(OH)D) and cardiometabolic risk factors, with adjustment for objectively-measured physical activity and adiposity. Methods This was a population-based cross-sectional study in 586 adults in Cameroon (63.5% women). We assessed markers of glucose homoeostasis (fasting blood glucose (BG), 2 h post glucose load BG, HOMA-IR)) and computed a metabolic syndrome score by summing the sex‐specific z‐scores of five risk components measuring central adiposity, blood pressure, glucose, HDL cholesterol and triglycerides. Results Mean±SD age was 38.3 ± 8.6 years, and serum 25(OH)D was 51.7 ± 12.5 nmol/L. Mean 25(OH)D was higher in rural (53.4 ± 12.8 nmol/L) than urban residents (50.2 ± 12.1 nmol/L), p = 0.002. The prevalence of vitamin D insufficiency (

Abstract Background Cities globally have started to make substantial investment in more sustainable forms of transportation. We aimed to evaluate whether the construction of new cycling infrastructure in Paris and Lyon, France, affected population cycling activity along new or improved routes. Methods Routinely collected cycle count data from January 2014 to March 2020 were acquired for the cities of Paris and Lyon. Improvements were identified at 15 locations with 6 months of pre- and post-intervention data. Comparison streets were chosen within Paris or Lyon for which pre-intervention trends in cycling were similar to those at intervention sites. Controlled interrupted time series analyses and autocorrelation were performed adjusting for seasonality. Random-effects meta-analysis combined results across streets within each city and overall. Results On average, cycling counts/day increased on both intervention and control streets in Paris and Lyon. In general, results of the ITS analysis indicated no significant change in the level or trend as a result of the improvements in either city. Meta-analysis suggested that intervention streets in Paris had a larger positive pooled effect size for level change (218 cycle counts, 95% CI -189, 626, I2 = 0%) compared to Lyon (34, 95% CI -65, 133, I2 = 14%); however, confidence intervals for both cities were wide and included no effect. Conclusions The findings suggest that improving or constructing new cycle lanes may be necessary but not sufficient to induce significant changes in cycling levels. There is a need to understand how context, intervention design and other complementary interventions can improve the effectiveness of new cycling infrastructure.

Abstract Background Whether the associations of time spent in screen-based sedentary activities with CHD vary by genetic susceptibility is currently unknown. The objective of this study was to examine the interplay of genetic susceptibility to CHD and two prevalent types of screen-based sedentary activities (television [TV] viewing and computer use) for CHD incidence. Methods This prospective cohort study included 373,026 individuals of European ancestry without prevalent CHD/stroke from UK Biobank data. Genetic susceptibility to CHD was assessed using weighted polygenic risk scores, calculated by summing the number of risk-increasing alleles among 300 single-nucleotide polymorphisms, multiplied by their corresponding effect estimates. TV viewing and computer use were assessed through touch-screen questionnaires. CHD incidence (n=9185) was adjudicated over a median 12.6-year follow-up. Results Compared with ≥4h/day of TV viewing, the hazard ratio of CHD was 0.84 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.79–0.90) and 0.94 (0.90–0.99) for ≤1h/day and 2–3h/day of TV viewing, respectively, after adjusting for confounders including the genetic risk. CHD hazards were higher for medium and high genetic risk than for low genetic risk. Across all levels of genetic risk including high-genetic risk, ≤1h/day of TV viewing had lower CHD hazards, compared with ≥4h/day: no evidence of interaction between genetic risk and TV viewing (p value: 0.362). Estimates of the population attributable fraction (PAF) suggested that 10.9% (95% CI 6.1–15.3%) of CHD could be prevented if TV viewing time were reduced to ≤1h/day, assuming causality. The PAF values were relatively larger for medium-to-high genetic risk than for low genetic risk, although the CIs were wide and overlapping. No associations were observed for computer use. Conclusions Less TV viewing time was associated with lower CHD risk independently of genetic risk. Clinical trials targeted at individuals with high genetic susceptibility should consider reducing TV viewing as as a behavioural target for prevention of an early onset of cardiovascular events.

BackgroundSelf-reported adherence to the Mediterranean diet has been modestly inversely associated with incidence of type 2 diabetes (T2D) in cohort studies. There is uncertainty about the validity and magnitude of this association due to subjective reporting of diet. The association has not been evaluated using an objectively measured biomarker of the Mediterranean diet.Methods and findingsWe derived a biomarker score based on 5 circulating carotenoids and 24 fatty acids that discriminated between the Mediterranean or habitual diet arms of a parallel design, 6-month partial-feeding randomised controlled trial (RCT) conducted between 2013 and 2014, the MedLey trial (128 participants out of 166 randomised). We applied this biomarker score in an observational study, the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC)-InterAct case-cohort study, to assess the association of the score with T2D incidence over an average of 9.7 years of follow-up since the baseline (1991 to 1998). We included 22,202 participants, of whom 9,453 were T2D cases, with relevant biomarkers from an original case-cohort of 27,779 participants sampled from a cohort of 340,234 people. As a secondary measure of the Mediterranean diet, we used a score estimated from dietary-self report. Within the trial, the biomarker score discriminated well between the 2 arms; the cross-validated C-statistic was 0.88 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.82 to 0.94). The score was inversely associated with incident T2D in EPIC-InterAct: the hazard ratio (HR) per standard deviation of the score was 0.71 (95% CI: 0.65 to 0.77) following adjustment for sociodemographic, lifestyle and medical factors, and adiposity. In comparison, the HR per standard deviation of the self-reported Mediterranean diet was 0.90 (95% CI: 0.86 to 0.95). Assuming the score was causally associated with T2D, higher adherence to the Mediterranean diet in Western European adults by 10 percentiles of the score was estimated to reduce the incidence of T2D by 11% (95% CI: 7% to 14%). The study limitations included potential measurement error in nutritional biomarkers, unclear specificity of the biomarker score to the Mediterranean diet, and possible residual confounding.ConclusionsThese findings suggest that objectively assessed adherence to the Mediterranean diet is associated with lower risk of T2D and that even modestly higher adherence may have the potential to reduce the population burden of T2D meaningfully.Trial registrationAustralian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry (ANZCTR) ACTRN12613000602729 https://www.anzctr.org.au/Trial/Registration/TrialReview.aspx?id=363860.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1003269.].

BackgroundThe COVID-19 pandemic accelerated the interest in implementing mobile health (mHealth) in population-based health studies, but evidence is lacking on engagement and adherence in studies. We conducted a fully remote study for ≥6 months tracking COVID-19 digital biomarkers and symptoms using a smartphone app nested within an existing cohort of adults. ObjectiveWe aimed to investigate participant characteristics associated with initial and sustained engagement in digital biomarker collection from a bespoke smartphone app and if engagement changed over time or because of COVID-19 factors and explore participants’ reasons for consenting to the smartphone substudy and experiences related to initial and continued engagement. MethodsParticipants in the Fenland COVID-19 study were invited to the app substudy from August 2020 to October 2020 until study closure (April 30, 2021). Participants were asked to complete digital biomarker modules (oxygen saturation, body temperature, and resting heart rate [RHR]) and possible COVID-19 symptoms in the app 3 times per week. Participants manually entered the measurements, except RHR that was measured using the smartphone camera. Engagement was categorized by median weekly frequency of completing the 3 digital biomarker modules (categories: 0, 1-2, and ≥3 times per week). Sociodemographic and health characteristics of those who did or did not consent to the substudy and by engagement category were explored. Semistructured interviews were conducted with 35 participants who were purposively sampled by sex, age, educational attainment, and engagement category, and data were analyzed thematically; 63% (22/35) of the participants consented to the app substudy, and 37% (13/35) of the participants did not consent. ResultsA total of 62.61% (2524/4031) of Fenland COVID-19 study participants consented to the app substudy. Of those, 90.21% (2277/2524) completed the app onboarding process. Median time in the app substudy was 34.5 weeks (IQR 34-37) with no change in engagement from 0 to 3 months or 3 to 6 months. Completion rates (≥1 per week) across the study between digital biomarkers were similar (RHR: 56,517/77,664, 72.77%; temperature: 56,742/77,664, 73.06%; oxygen saturation: 57,088/77,664, 73.51%). Older age groups and lower managerial and intermediate occupations were associated with higher engagement, whereas working, being a current smoker, being overweight or obese, and high perceived stress were associated with lower engagement. Continued engagement was facilitated through routine and personal motivation, and poor engagement was caused by user error and app or equipment malfunctions preventing data input. From these results, we developed key recommendations to improve engagement in population-based mHealth studies. ConclusionsThis mixed methods study demonstrated both high initial and sustained engagement in a large mHealth COVID-19 study over a ≥6-month period. Being nested in a known cohort study enabled the identification of participant characteristics and factors associated with engagement to inform future applications in population-based health research.

BackgroundSugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) are the primary source of dietary added sugars in children, with high consumption commonly observed in more deprived areas where obesity prevalence is also highest. Associations between SSB consumption and obesity in children have been widely reported. In March 2016, a two-tier soft drinks industry levy (SDIL) on drinks manufacturers to encourage reformulation of SSBs in the United Kingdom was announced and then implemented in April 2018. We examined trajectories in the prevalence of obesity at ages 4 to 5 years and 10 to 11 years, 19 months after the implementation of SDIL, overall and by sex and deprivation.Methods and findingsData were from the National Child Measurement Programme and included annual repeat cross-sectional measurement of over 1 million children in reception (4 to 5 years old) and year 6 (10 to 11 years old) in state-maintained English primary schools. Interrupted time series (ITS) analysis of monthly obesity prevalence data from September 2013 to November 2019 was used to estimate absolute and relative changes in obesity prevalence compared to a counterfactual (adjusted for temporal variations in obesity prevalence) estimated from the trend prior to SDIL announcement. Differences between observed and counterfactual estimates were examined in November 2019 by age (reception or year 6) and additionally by sex and deprivation quintile. In year 6 girls, there was an overall absolute reduction in obesity prevalence (defined as >95th centile on the UK90 growth charts) of 1.6 percentage points (PPs) (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.1, 2.1), with greatest reductions in the two most deprived quintiles (e.g., there was an absolute reduction of 2.4 PP (95% CI: 1.6, 3.2) in prevalence of obesity in the most deprived quintile). In year 6 boys, there was no change in obesity prevalence, except in the least deprived quintile where there was a 1.6-PP (95% CI: 0.7, 2.5) absolute increase. In reception children, relative to the counterfactual, there were no overall changes in obesity prevalence in boys (0.5 PP (95% CI: 1.0, -0.1)) or girls (0.2 PP (95% CI: 0.8, -0.3)). This study is limited by use of index of multiple deprivation of the school attended to assess individual socioeconomic disadvantage. ITS analyses are vulnerable to unidentified cointerventions and time-varying confounding, neither of which we can rule out.ConclusionsOur results suggest that the SDIL was associated with decreased prevalence of obesity in year 6 girls, with the greatest differences in those living in the most deprived areas. Additional strategies beyond SSB taxation will be needed to reduce obesity prevalence overall, and particularly in older boys and younger children.Trial registrationISRCTN18042742.

Abstract Background Low attendance and engagement in behavioural weight management trials are common. Mental health may play an important role, however previous research exploring this association is limited with inconsistent findings. We aimed to investigate whether mental health was associated with attendance and engagement in a trial of behavioural weight management programmes. Methods This is a secondary data analysis of the Weight loss referrals for adults in primary care (WRAP) trial, which randomised 1267 adults with overweight or obesity to brief intervention, WW (formerly Weight Watchers) for 12-weeks, or WW for 52-weeks. We used regression analyses to assess the association of baseline mental health (depression and anxiety (by Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale), quality of life (by EQ5D), satisfaction with life (by Satisfaction with Life Questionnaire)) with programme attendance and engagement in WW groups, and trial attendance in all randomised groups. Results Every one unit of baseline depression score was associated with a 1% relative reduction in rate of WW session attendance in the first 12 weeks (Incidence rate ratio [IRR] 0.99; 95% CI 0.98, 0.999). Higher baseline anxiety was associated with 4% lower odds to report high engagement with WW digital tools (Odds ratio [OR] 0.96; 95% CI 0.94, 0.99). Every one unit of global quality of life was associated with 69% lower odds of reporting high engagement with the WW mobile app (OR 0.31; 95% CI 0.15, 0.64). Greater symptoms of depression and anxiety and lower satisfaction with life at baseline were consistently associated with lower odds of attending study visits at 3-, 12-, 24-, and 60-months. Conclusions Participants were less likely to attend programme sessions, engage with resources, and attend study assessments when reporting poorer baseline mental health. Differences in attendance and engagement were small, however changes may still have a meaningful effect on programme effectiveness and trial completion. Future research should investigate strategies to maximise attendance and engagement in those reporting poorer mental health. Trial registration The original trial ( ISRCTN82857232 ) and five year follow up ( ISRCTN64986150 ) were prospectively registered with Current Controlled Trials on 15/10/2012 and 01/02/2018.

Introduction Kidney cancer (renal cell cancer (RCC)) is the seventh most common cancer in the UK. As RCC is largely curable if detected at an early stage and most patients have no symptoms, there is international interest in evaluating a screening programme for RCC. The Yorkshire Kidney Screening Trial (YKST) will assess the feasibility of adding non-contrast abdominal CT scanning to screen for RCC and other abdominal pathology within the Yorkshire Lung Screening Trial (YLST), a randomised trial of community-based CT screening for lung cancer.Methods and analysis In YLST, ever-smokers aged 55–80 years registered with a general practice in Leeds have been randomised to a Lung Health Check assessment, including a thoracic low-dose CT (LDCT) for those at high risk of lung cancer, or routine care. YLST participants randomised to the Lung Health Check arm who attend for the second round of screening at 2 years without a history of RCC or abdominal CT scan within the previous 6 months will be invited to take part in YKST. We anticipate inviting 4700 participants. Those who consent will have an abdominal CT immediately following their YLST thoracic LDCT. A subset of participants and the healthcare workers involved will be invited to take part in a qualitative interview. Primary objectives are to quantify the uptake of the abdominal CT, assess the acceptability of the combined screening approach and pilot the majority of procedures for a subsequent randomised controlled trial of RCC screening within lung cancer screening.Ethics and dissemination YKST was approved by the North West-Preston Research Ethics Committee (21/NW/0021), and the Health Research Authority on 3 February 2021. Trial results will be disseminated at clinical meetings, in peer-reviewed journals and to policy-makers. Findings will be made available to participants via the study website (www.YKST.org).Trial registration numbers NCT05005195 and ISRCTN18055040.

Abstract Background Current physical activity guidelines do not distinguish between activity accumulated in different behavioural domains but some studies suggest that occupational physical activity (OPA) may not confer health benefits and could even be detrimental. The purpose of this study was to investigate associations between OPA and mortality outcomes. Methods From baseline (2006–2010), 460,901 UK Biobank participants (aged 40–69 years) were followed for a median 12.0 (IQR: 11.3–12.7) years. OPA was categorised by cross-tabulating degree of manual work and walking/standing work amongst those in paid employment (n = 267,765), and combined with categories of occupational status for those not in paid employment (n = 193,136). Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate sex-stratified hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for mortality from all causes, CVD, and cancer by occupational group, and for working hours/week and non-occupational physical activity stratified by occupational group. Models included adjustment for age and a range of lifestyle, socio-economic and health-related covariates. Results During 5,449,989 person-years of follow-up, 28,740 deaths occurred. Compared to those reporting no heavy manual or walking/standing work (e.g. sedentary office workers) and adjusting for covariates, retirement was associated with lower mortality in women (HR = 0.62, CI: 0.53–0.72) and men (HR = 0.80, CI: 0.71–0.90), whereas unemployment was associated with higher mortality in men only (HR = 1.24, CI: 1.07–1.45). Within the working population, there was no evidence of differences in all-cause, CVD or cancer mortality by OPA group when comparing those reporting higher levels of OPA to the lowest OPA reference group for both women and men. Working

Abstract Background Physical activity is associated with a reduced risk of type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular disease but limited evidence exists for the sustained promotion of increased physical activity within diabetes prevention trials. The aim of the study was to investigate the long-term effectiveness of the Walking Away programme, an established group-based behavioural physical activity intervention with pedometer use, when delivered alone or with a supporting mHealth intervention. Methods Those at risk of diabetes (nondiabetic hyperglycaemia) were recruited from primary care, 2013–2015, and randomised to (1) Control (information leaflet); (2) Walking Away (WA), a structured group education session followed by annual group-based support; or (3) Walking Away Plus (WAP), comprising WA annual group-based support and an mHealth intervention delivering tailored text messages supported by telephone calls. Follow-up was conducted at 12 and 48 months. The primary outcome was accelerometer measured ambulatory activity (steps/day). Change in primary outcome was analysed using analysis of covariance with adjustment for baseline, randomisation and stratification variables. Results One thousand three hundred sixty-six individuals were randomised (median age = 61 years, ambulatory activity = 6638 steps/day, women = 49%, ethnic minorities = 28%). Accelerometer data were available for 1017 (74%) individuals at 12 months and 993 (73%) at 48 months. At 12 months, WAP increased their ambulatory activity by 547 (97.5% CI 211, 882) steps/day compared to control and were 1.61 (97.5% CI 1.05, 2.45) times more likely to achieve 150 min/week of moderate-to-vigorous physical activity. Differences were not maintained at 48 months. WA was no different to control at 12 or 48 months. Secondary anthropometric and health outcomes were largely unaltered in both intervention groups apart from small reductions in body weight in WA (~ 1 kg) at 12- and 48-month follow-up. Conclusions Combining a pragmatic group-based intervention with text messaging and telephone support resulted in modest changes to physical activity at 12 months, but changes were not maintained at 48 months. Trial registration ISRCTN 83465245 (registered on 14 June 2012).

Abstract Background Characteristics of the built environment, such as neighbourhood fast-food outlet exposure, are increasingly recognised as risk factors for unhealthy diet and obesity. Obesity also has a genetic component, with common genetic variants explaining a substantial proportion of population-level obesity susceptibility. However, it is not known whether and to what extent associations between fast-food outlet exposure and body weight are modified by genetic predisposition to obesity. Methods We used data from the Fenland Study, a population-based sample of 12,435 UK adults (mean age 48.6 years). We derived a genetic risk score associated with BMI (BMI-GRS) from 96 BMI-associated single nucleotide polymorphisms. Neighbourhood fast-food exposure was defined as quartiles of counts of outlets around the home address. We used multivariable regression models to estimate the associations of each exposure, independently and in combination, with measured BMI, overweight and obesity, and investigated interactions. Results We found independent associations between BMI-GRS and risk of overweight (RR = 1.34, 95% CI 1.23–1.47) and obesity (RR = 1.73, 95% CI 1.55–1.93), and between fast-food outlet exposure and risk of obesity (highest vs lowest quartile RR = 1.58, 95% CI 1.21–2.05). There was no evidence of an interaction of fast-food outlet exposure and genetic risk on BMI (P = 0.09), risk of overweight (P = 0.51), or risk of obesity (P = 0.27). The combination of higher BMI-GRS and highest fast-food outlet exposure was associated with 2.70 (95% CI 1.99–3.66) times greater risk of obesity. Conclusions Our study demonstrated independent associations of both genetic obesity risk and neighbourhood fast-food outlet exposure with adiposity. These important drivers of the obesity epidemic have to date been studied in isolation. Neighbourhood fast-food outlet exposure remains a potential target of policy intervention to prevent obesity and promote the public’s health.

Introduction: On average, aspects of mental health improve following behavioural weight management programmes, yet this is not the case for all participants. It is important to identify those at risk of harm to provide more effective psychological support. We aimed to identify participant characteristics associated with changes in depression and anxiety in participants of a behavioural weight management programme. Methods: In the Weight loss Referrals for Adults in Primary care (WRAP) trial, 1267 adults with BMI≥28 kg/m2 were randomised to brief intervention, or WW (formerly Weight Watchers) for 12-weeks or 52-weeks and followed for five years. We used linear and multinomial regression to explore the association between participant characteristics and changes in depression and anxiety (measured by Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale). Where possible, the impact of missing data was investigated using multiple imputation. Results: Higher baseline anxiety was associated with decreases in anxiety symptoms and increases in depression symptoms from baseline to follow-up. Higher baseline depression was associated with decreases in depression symptoms and increases in anxiety symptoms from baseline to follow-up. The magnitude of the associations were small. No further characteristics were consistently associated with changes in mental health. Discussion: Evidence suggests that baseline depression and anxiety may indicate how depression and anxiety symptoms change during and after attending WW. Measurement of depression and anxiety at the start of a behavioural weight management programme and subsequent monitoring may facilitate timely psychological support if a deterioration in mental health is identified. Further research in large and diverse participant samples is required to clarify the findings.

Introduction: Adults with overweight and obesity are vulnerable to weight gain and mental health deterioration during the COVID-19 pandemic. We developed a web-based, guided self-help intervention based on Acceptance and Commitment Therapy (ACT) that aims to support adults with overweight and obesity to prevent weight gain by helping them to manage their eating behaviours, be more physically active and protect their emotional wellbeing (“SWiM-C”). SWiM-C is a guided self-help programme using non-specialist guides to enhance scalability and population reach while minimising cost. This study evaluated the effect of SWiM-C on bodyweight, eating behaviour, physical activity and mental wellbeing in adults with overweight and obesity over 4 months during the COVID-19 pandemic in the UK. Methods: We randomised adults (BMI≥25kg/m2) to SWiM-C or to a wait-list standard advice group. Participants completed outcome assessments online at baseline and 4 months. The primary outcome was self-measured weight; secondary outcomes were eating behaviour, physical activity, experiential avoidance/psychological flexibility, depression, anxiety, stress, and wellbeing. We estimated differences between study groups in change in outcomes from baseline to 4 months using linear regression, adjusted for outcome at baseline and the randomisation stratifiers (BMI, sex). The trial was pre-registered (ISRCTN12107048). Results: 486 participants were assessed for eligibility; 388 participants were randomised (196 standard advice, 192 SWiM-C) and 324 were analysed. The adjusted difference in weight between SWiM-C and standard advice was -0.60kg (-1.67 to 0.47, p=0.27). SWiM-C led to improvements in uncontrolled eating (-3.61 [-5.94 to -1.28]), cognitive restraint (5.28 [2.81 to 7.75]), experiential avoidance (-3.39 [-5.55 to -1.23]), and wellbeing (0.13 [0.07 to 0.18]). Conclusions: SWiM-C improved several psychological determinants of successful weight management and had a protective effect on wellbeing during the pandemic. However, differences in weight and some other outcomes were compatible with no effect of the intervention, suggesting further refinement of the intervention is needed.

Introduction The cost-effectiveness and long-term health impact of behavioural weight management programmes depends on post-treatment weight-loss maintenance. Growing evidence suggests that interventions using acceptance and commitment therapy (ACT) could improve long-term weight management. We developed an ACT-based, guided self-help intervention to support adults who have recently completed a behavioural weight loss programme. This study will assess the feasibility and acceptability of this type of intervention and findings will inform the development of a full-scale trial.Methods and analysis This is a pragmatic, randomised, single-blind, parallel group, two-arm, feasibility study with an embedded process evaluation. We will recruit and randomise 60 adults who have recently completed a behavioural weight loss programme to the ACT-based intervention or standard care, using a computer-generated sequence with 2:1 allocation stratified by diabetes status and sex. Baseline and 6-month measurements will be completed using online questionnaires. Qualitative interviews will be conducted with a subsample of participants and coaches about their experiences at 3 (mid-intervention) and 6 (postintervention) months. Feasibility and acceptability of the intervention, and a full-scale trial will be assessed using a number of outcomes, including adherence to, and engagement with the intervention, recruitment and retention rates, proportion of missing data for each outcome measure, participants’ experiences of the intervention and study, and coaches’ experiences of delivering intervention support. Quantitative and qualitative findings will be integrated and summarised to contribute to the interpretation of the main feasibility evaluation findings. Value of information methods will be used to estimate the decision uncertainty associated with the intervention’s cost-effectiveness and determine the value of a definitive trial.Ethics and dissemination Ethical approval was received from Cambridge South Research Ethics Committee on 15/03/2021 (21/EE/0024). This protocol (V.2) was approved on 19 April 2021. Findings will be published in peer-reviewed scientific journals and communicated to other stakeholders as appropriate.Trial registration number ISRCTN12685964.

Abstract Background UK Biobank is a large prospective cohort study containing accelerometer-based physical activity data with strong validity collected from 100,000 participants approximately 5 years after baseline. In contrast, the main cohort has multiple self-reported physical behaviours from > 500,000 participants with longer follow-up time, offering several epidemiological advantages. However, questionnaire methods typically suffer from greater measurement error, and at present there is no tested method for combining these diverse self-reported data to more comprehensively assess the overall dose of physical activity. This study aimed to use the accelerometry sub-cohort to calibrate the self-reported behavioural variables to produce a harmonised estimate of physical activity energy expenditure, and subsequently examine its reliability, validity, and associations with disease outcomes. Methods We calibrated 14 self-reported behavioural variables from the UK Biobank main cohort using the wrist accelerometry sub-cohort (n = 93,425), and used published equations to estimate physical activity energy expenditure (PAEESR). For comparison, we estimated physical activity based on the scoring criteria of the International Physical Activity Questionnaire, and by summing variables for occupational and leisure-time physical activity with no calibration. Test-retest reliability was assessed using data from the UK Biobank repeat assessment (n = 18,905) collected a mean of 4.3 years after baseline. Validity was assessed in an independent validation study (n = 98) with estimates based on doubly labelled water (PAEEDLW). In the main UK Biobank cohort (n = 374,352), Cox regression was used to estimate associations between PAEESR and fatal and non-fatal outcomes including all-cause, cardiovascular diseases, respiratory diseases, and cancers. Results PAEESR explained 27% variance in gold-standard PAEEDLW estimates, with no mean bias. However, error was strongly correlated with PAEEDLW (r = −.98; p

Summary: Background: To limit the spread of COVID-19 in March 2020, the population of England was instructed to stay home, leaving only for essential shopping, health-care, work, or exercise. The impact on population activity behaviours is not clear. We describe changes in duration and types of activity undertaken by adults ≥16 years in England between March and May 2016-19 and 2020, by socio-demographic strata. Methods: Using nationally representative data collected between November 2015 and May 2020 by the Sport England Active Lives Surveys (n=726,257) we assessed trends in amount and type of non-occupational moderate-to-vigorous physical activity. Using data from n=74,430 mid-April to mid-May respondents, we then estimated the odds ratios of reporting any activity in the four-week recall period in 2020 compared to 2016-19. Gamma regressions estimated the mean ratios (MR) of duration amongst those reporting any activity in 2020 compared to 2016-19. Findings: Population activity declined substantially after the restrictions were introduced. Compared to 2016-19 levels, the odds of reporting any activity in 2020 were 30% lower (95% confidence interval (CI) 26-34%). The largest declines were amongst non-white ethnicities, the youngest and oldest age groups, and the unemployed; no socio-demographic subgroup had higher odds. Amongst those undertaking activity, weekly duration was similar in the two periods (MR 0.99, 95%CI (0.96-1.01%)). The odds of participating in walking for leisure and gardening were 11% (6-16%) and 15% (9-21%) higher, respectively, whereas the odds for team and racket sport and walking for travel participation were 76% (73-79%) and 66% (64-68%) lower, respectively. Interpretation: Restrictions introduced in Spring 2020 likely reduced physical activity levels in England. The magnitude of the declines were not uniform by demographic groups or by activity type, which future policies should consider. Funding: TS, KW, SJS, and SB are supported by UK Medical Research Council [grant numbers MC_UU_00006/4 and MC_UU_12015/3] and SB is supported by the NIHR Biomedical Research Centre in Cambridge (IS-BRC-1215-20014).

Introduction Diabetes and related metabolic disorders such as obesity and cardiovascular diseases (CVD) are a growing global issue. Equipping individuals with the necessary ‘knowledge, skills and confidence to self-manage their health’ (ie, patient activation (PAct)) may lead to improvements in health outcomes. It is unclear whether existing evidence allows us to assume a causal relationship. We aim to synthesise and critically appraise evidence on the relationship between PAct and self-management behaviours and clinical outcomes of people living with diabetes and related metabolic disorders.Methods and analysis The protocol is based on guidance on Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Review and Meta-analysis Protocols. We will search Medline, Embase, CENTRAL, PsycInfo, Web of Science and CINAHL using search terms related to PAct, diabetes, pre-diabetes, obesity and CVD. Any quantitative study design is eligible provided studies assess the association between PAct and clinical outcomes and/or self-management behaviours of diabetes and related metabolic disorders. Outcomes include behavioural (eg, diet) and clinical (eg, blood pressure) outcomes. Two reviewers will independently screen titles/abstracts and full texts and assess risk of bias using the revised Cochrane risk-of-bias tool for randomised trials or the Risk of Bias Assessment Tool for Nonrandomised Studies (RoBANS).One reviewer will extract data, with independent checking by a second reviewer. We will critically assess the level of evidence available for assuming a causal association between PAct and outcomes. Data permitting, we will use the Hunter-Schmidt random-effects method to meta-analyse correlations across studies.Ethics and dissemination Ethical approval is not required. The review will be disseminated in the form of a peer-reviewed journal article, at conferences and other presentations. The findings of the review will be of interest to clinical commissioning groups, policymakers and intervention deliverers/developers.PROSPERO registration number CRD42021230727.

Background There is controversy about associations between total dietary fatty acids, their classes (saturated fatty acids [SFAs], monounsaturated fatty acids, and polyunsaturated fatty acids), and risk of coronary heart disease (CHD). Specifically, the relevance of food sources of SFAs to CHD associations is uncertain. Methods and Results We conducted a case‐cohort study involving 10 529 incident CHD cases and a random subcohort of 16 730 adults selected from a cohort of 385 747 participants in 9 countries of the EPIC (European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition) study. We estimated multivariable adjusted country‐specific hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% CIs per 5% of energy intake from dietary fatty acids, with and without isocaloric macronutrient substitutions, using Prentice‐weighted Cox regression models and pooled results using random‐effects meta‐analysis. We found no evidence for associations of the consumption of total or fatty acid classes with CHD, regardless of macronutrient substitutions. In analyses considering food sources, CHD incidence was lower per 1% higher energy intake of SFAs from yogurt (HR, 0.93 [95% CI, 0.88–0.99]), cheese (HR, 0.98 [95% CI, 0.96–1.00]), and fish (HR, 0.87 [95% CI, 0.75–1.00]), but higher for SFAs from red meat (HR, 1.07 [95% CI, 1.02–1.12]) and butter (HR, 1.02 [95% CI, 1.00–1.04]). Conclusions This observational study found no strong associations of total fatty acids, SFAs, monounsaturated fatty acids, and polyunsaturated fatty acids, with incident CHD. By contrast, we found associations of SFAs with CHD in opposite directions dependent on the food source. These findings should be further confirmed, but support public health recommendations to consider food sources alongside the macronutrients they contain, and suggest the importance of the overall food matrix.

Background: Weight loss through behavioural weight management interventions can have important health benefits for people with obesity. However, to maximise the health benefits, weight lost must be maintained. Evidence suggests that behavioural weight loss interventions do not exacerbate inequalities in the short-term. However, no study has yet considered whether inequalities exist in long-term weight change following intervention. Aim: To investigate if there are inequalities in weight change following weight loss intervention. Methods: We conducted a cohort analysis of data from the Weight Loss Referrals for Adults in Primary Care (WRAP) trial (N=1267). WRAP randomised participants to receive a brief intervention information booklet or vouchers for 12-weeks or 52-weeks of WW (formerly Weight Watchers) and followed them for 5-years. Multiple linear regression estimated the association between exposures (indicators of inequality) and outcome (change in weight between 1- and 5-years). Each model was adjusted for intervention group, baseline weight, weight change between baseline and 1-year, research centre, and source of the 5-year weight data. Results: Of the 1267 participants in WRAP, 708 had weight change data available. Mean weight change between 1- and 5-years was +3.30 kg (SD 9.10 kg). A 1 year difference in age at baseline was associated with weight change of 0.11kg ((95%CI 0.06, 0.16), p

Abstract Background Evidence on the association between sitting for extended periods (i.e. prolonged sedentary time (PST)) and cardio-metabolic health is inconsistent in children. We aimed to estimate the differences in cardio-metabolic health associated with substituting PST with non-prolonged sedentary time (non-PST), light (LIPA) or moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (MVPA) in children. Methods Cross-sectional data from 14 studies (7 countries) in the International Children’s Accelerometry Database (ICAD, 1998–2009) was included. Accelerometry in 19,502 participants aged 3–18 years, together with covariate and outcome data, was pooled and harmonized. Iso-temporal substitution in linear regression models provided beta coefficients (95%CI) for substitution of 1 h/day PST (sedentary time accumulated in bouts > 15 min) with non-PST, LIPA or MVPA, for each study, which were meta-analysed. Results Modelling substitution of 1 h/day of PST with non-PST suggested reductions in standardized BMI, but estimates were > 7-fold greater for substitution with MVPA (− 0.44 (− 0.62; − 0.26) SD units). Only reallocation by MVPA was beneficial for waist circumference (− 3.07 (− 4.47; − 1.68) cm), systolic blood pressure (− 1.53 (− 2.42; − 0.65) mmHg) and clustered cardio-metabolic risk (− 0.18 (− 0.3; − 0.1) SD units). For HDL-cholesterol and diastolic blood pressure, substitution with LIPA was beneficial; however, substitution with MVPA showed 5-fold stronger effect estimates (HDL-cholesterol: 0.05 (0.01; 0.10) mmol/l); diastolic blood pressure: − 0.81 (− 1.38; − 0.24) mmHg). Conclusions Replacement of PST with MVPA may be the preferred scenario for behaviour change, given beneficial associations with a wide range of cardio-metabolic risk factors (including adiposity, HDL-cholesterol, blood pressure and clustered cardio-metabolic risk). Effect estimates are clinically relevant (e.g. an estimated reduction in waist circumference of ≈1.5 cm for 30 min/day replacement). Replacement with LIPA could be beneficial for some of these risk factors, however with substantially lower effect estimates.

Abstract Background The evidence for the prospective relationships between specific physical activities (PA), sedentary behaviours (SB) and sleep on subsequent total PA levels is scarce. The purpose of this study was to examine prospective associations of self-reported PA, SB and sleep, and changes in these with subsequent accelerometer-measured PA. Methods A sub-sample of 91,648 UK Biobank participants reported moderate-to-vigorous PA (MVPA), lifestyle activities, TV viewing, computer use and sleep through screen-based questionnaires at baseline (2006–2010), and provided valid accelerometry data (dominant wrist-worn for 7 days between 2013 and 2015). A further sub-sample of 7709 participants repeated the screen-based questionnaires between 2012 and 2013. Results In both women (n = 51,545) and men (n = 40,103), positive associations were observed between all self-reported measures of PA at baseline (MVPA, lifestyle/job-related activities, active transporting modes) and accelerometer-measured PA levels at follow-up (median 5.7 years); an exception was ‘walking/standing at work’ in women. Sedentary time at work, TV viewing and computer use were inversely associated with PA at follow-up. Sleeping either more or less than 7 h/day at baseline was associated with lower PA at follow-up (except for ≤6 h/day in men). In the repeat self-report sub-sample (median 4.3 years), relatively higher physical activity at follow-up was observed in those who maintained or achieved favourable levels of MVPA, walking for pleasure, strenuous sports, other exercises, heavy DIY (in women), heavy physical work, and walking/standing at work (in women), sedentary time at work, getting about methods (in women), commuting methods (in women), TV viewing, computer use or sleep. Conclusions Initial levels of PA, SB and sleep, and changes in these variables were generally associated with subsequent accelerometer-measured PA in the expected directions, suggesting these specific behaviours all contribute to the total volume of physical activity over time and could thus be targets for intervention.

Abstract Background The World Health Organization has advocated for sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) taxes as part of a broader non-communicable disease prevention strategy, and these taxes have been recently introduced in a wide range of settings. However, much is still unknown about how SSB taxes operate in various contexts and as a result of different tax designs. In 2015, the Government of Barbados implemented a 10% ad valorem (value-based) tax on SSBs. It has been hypothesized that this tax structure may inadvertently encourage consumers to switch to cheaper sugary drinks. We aimed to assess whether and to what extent there has been a change in sales of SSBs following implementation of the SSB tax. Methods We used electronic point of sale data from a major grocery store chain and applied an interrupted time series (ITS) design to assess grocery store SSB and non-SSB sales from January 2013 to October 2016. We controlled for the underlying time trend, seasonality, inflation, tourism and holidays. We conducted sensitivity analyses using a cross-country control (Trinidad and Tobago) and a within-country control (vinegar). We included a post-hoc stratification by price tertile to assess the extent to which consumers may switch to cheaper sugary drinks. Results We found that average weekly sales of SSBs decreased by 4.3% (95%CI 3.6 to 4.9%) compared to expected sales without a tax, primarily driven by a decrease in carbonated SSBs sales of 3.6% (95%CI 2.9 to 4.4%). Sales of non-SSBs increased by 5.2% (95%CI 4.5 to 5.9%), with bottled water sales increasing by an average of 7.5% (95%CI 6.5 to 8.3%). The sensitivity analyses were consistent with the uncontrolled results. After stratifying by price, we found evidence of substitution to cheaper SSBs. Conclusions This study suggests that the Barbados SSB tax was associated with decreased sales of SSBs in a major grocery store chain after controlling for underlying trends. This finding was robust to sensitivity analyses. We found evidence to suggest that consumers may have changed their behaviour in response to the tax by purchasing cheaper sugary drinks, in addition to substituting to untaxed products. This has important implications for the design of future SSB taxes.

Abstract Background Dietary inequalities between population groups are common with older and more affluent individuals tending to have healthier diets. Differential responses to health interventions may exacerbate inequalities. Changing what foods are displayed at supermarket checkouts is one intervention that has the potential to change diets. The aim of this study was to assess whether differences in purchases of common checkout foods from supermarkets with different checkout food policies varied according to age group and social grade. Methods We analysed annual household purchase data for 2013–17 from nine leading UK supermarkets, split according to age of the main household shopper and household social grade. Checkout food policies were categorised as clear and consistent, vague or inconsistent, and none. Policies were heterogeneous but all included removal of confectionery and/or chocolate from checkouts. Mixed effects linear regression models were used to assess differences in purchases of common checkout foods (sugary confectionery, chocolate and potato crisps) by checkout food policy and whether these varied by age group or occupational social grade. Results Relative to supermarkets with no checkout food policy, 14% (95% CI: 4–22%) fewer purchases of common checkout foods per household per percentage market share were made in supermarkets with a clear and consistent policy. Adjusted mean numbers of purchases were higher in older age groups than the youngest, but there were no differences between the highest and other social grades. There were significant interactions between checkout food policy and both age group and social grade. In supermarkets with clear and consistent policies, 23% (6–36%), 20% (2–34%), and 23% (7–37%) fewer purchases were made in age groups 45–54, 55–64 and 65+ years respectively, compared to all groups combined. In supermarkets with clear and consistent policies, there were 21% (4–35%), 26% (9–39%) and 21% (3–35%) fewer purchases made by households in the highest two and lowest social grades respectively, compared to all groups combined. Conclusions Households with older main shoppers and those in the most and least affluent social grades may be most responsive to supermarket checkout food policies. As older and more affluent groups tend to have healthier diets overall, it is unlikely that supermarket checkout food policies contribute to greater dietary equity.

Background: Adolescent physical activity levels are low and are associated with rising disease risk and social disadvantage. The Get Others Active (GoActive) intervention was co-designed with adolescents and teachers to increase physical activity in adolescents. Objective: To assess the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of the school-based GoActive programme in increasing adolescents’ moderate-to-vigorous physical activity. Design: A cluster randomised controlled trial with an embedded mixed-methods process evaluation. Setting: Non-fee-paying schools in Cambridgeshire and Essex, UK (n = 16). Schools were computer randomised and stratified by socioeconomic position and county. Participants: A total of 2862 Year 9 students (aged 13–14 years; 84% of eligible students). Intervention: The iteratively developed feasibility-tested refined 12-week intervention trained older adolescents (mentors) and in-class peer leaders to encourage classes to undertake two new weekly activities. Mentors met with classes weekly. Students and classes gained points and rewards for activity in and out of school. Main outcome measures: The primary outcome was average daily minutes of accelerometer-assessed moderate-to-vigorous physical activity at 10 months post intervention. Secondary outcomes included accelerometer-assessed activity during school, after school and at weekends; self-reported physical activity and psychosocial outcomes; cost-effectiveness; well-being and a mixed-methods process evaluation. Measurement staff were blinded to allocation. Results: Of 2862 recruited participants, 2167 (76%) attended 10-month follow-up measurements and we analysed the primary outcome for 1874 (65.5%) participants. At 10 months, there was a mean decrease in moderate-to-vigorous physical activity of 8.3 (standard deviation 19.3) minutes in control participants and 10.4 (standard deviation 22.7) minutes in intervention participants (baseline-adjusted difference –1.91 minutes, 95% confidence interval –5.53 to 1.70 minutes; p = 0.316). The programme cost £13 per student compared with control. Therefore, it was not cost-effective. Non-significant indications of differential impacts suggested detrimental effects among boys (boys –3.44, 95% confidence interval –7.42 to 0.54; girls –0.20, 95% confidence interval –3.56 to 3.16), but favoured adolescents from lower socioeconomic backgrounds (medium/low 4.25, 95% confidence interval –0.66 to 9.16; high –2.72, 95% confidence interval –6.33 to 0.89). Mediation analysis did not support the use of any included intervention components to increase physical activity. Some may have potential for improving well-being. Students, teachers and mentors mostly reported enjoying the GoActive intervention (56%, 87% and 50%, respectively), but struggled to conceptualise their roles. Facilitators of implementation included school support, embedding a routine, and mentor and tutor support. Challenges to implementation included having limited school space for activities, time, and uncertainty of teacher and mentor roles. Limitations: Retention on the primary outcome at 10-month follow-up was low (65.5%), but we achieved our intended sample size, with retention comparable to similar trials. Conclusions: A rigorously developed school-based intervention (i.e. GoActive) was not effective in countering the age-related decline in adolescent physical activity. Overall, this mixed-methods evaluation provides transferable insights for future intervention development, implementation and evaluation. Future work: Interdisciplinary research is required to understand educational setting-specific implementation challenges. School leaders and authorities should be realistic about expectations of the effect of school-based physical activity promotion strategies implemented at scale. Trial registration: Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN31583496. Funding: This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Public Health Research programme and will be published in full in Public Health Research; Vol. 9, No. 6. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information. This work was additionally supported by the Medical Research Council (London, UK) (Unit Programme number MC_UU_12015/7) and undertaken under the auspices of the Centre for Diet and Activity Research (Cambridge, UK), a UK Clinical Research Collaboration Public Health Research Centre of Excellence. Funding from the British Heart Foundation (London, UK), Cancer Research UK (London, UK), Economic and Social Research Council (Swindon, UK), Medical Research Council, the National Institute for Health Research (Southampton, UK) and the Wellcome Trust (London, UK), under the auspices of the UK Clinical Research Collaboration, is gratefully acknowledged (087636/Z/08/Z; ES/G007462/1; MR/K023187/1). GoActive facilitator costs were borne by Essex and Cambridgeshire County Councils.

BackgroundSugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) consumption is positively associated with obesity, type 2 diabetes, and cardiovascular disease. The World Health Organization recommends that member states implement effective taxes on SSBs to reduce consumption. The United Kingdom Soft Drinks Industry Levy (SDIL) is a two-tiered tax, announced in March 2016 and implemented in April 2018. Drinks with ≥8 g of sugar per 100 ml (higher levy tier) are taxed at £0.24 per litre, drinks with ≥5 to 1.2% alcohol by volume are exempt. We aimed to determine if the announcement of the SDIL was associated with anticipatory changes in purchases of soft drinks prior to implementation of the SDIL in April 2018. We explored differences in the volume of and amount of sugar in household purchases of drinks in each levy tier at 2 years post announcement.Methods and findingsWe used controlled interrupted time series to compare observed changes associated with the announcement of the SDIL to the counterfactual scenario of no announcement. We used data from Kantar Worldpanel, a commercial household purchasing panel with approximately 30,000 British members that includes linked nutritional data on purchases. We conducted separate analyses for drinks liable for the SDIL in the higher, lower, and no-levy tiers controlling with household purchase volumes of toiletries. At 2 years post announcement, there was no difference in volume of or sugar from purchases of higher-levy-tier drinks compared to the counterfactual of no announcement. In contrast, a reversal of the existing upward trend in volume (ml) of and amount of sugar (g) in purchases of lower-levy-tier drinks was seen. These changes led to a -96.1 ml (95% confidence interval [CI] -144.2 to -48.0) reduction in volume and -6.4 g (95% CI -9.8 to -3.1) reduction in sugar purchased in these drinks per household per week. There was a reversal of the existing downward trend in the amount of sugar in household purchases of the no-levy drinks but no change in volume purchased. At 2 years post announcement, these changes led to a 6.1 g (95% CI 3.9-8.2) increase in sugar purchased in these drinks per household per week. There was no evidence that volume of or amount of sugar in purchases of all drinks combined was different from the counterfactual. This is an observational study, and changes other than the SDIL may have been responsible for the results reported. Purchases consumed outside of the home were not accounted for.ConclusionsThe announcement of the UK SDIL was associated with reductions in volume and sugar purchased in lower-levy-tier drinks before implementation. These were offset by increases in sugar purchased from no-levy drinks. These findings may reflect reformulation of drinks from the lower levy to no-levy tier with removal of some but not all sugar, alongside changes in consumer attitudes and beliefs.Trial registrationISRCTN Registry ISRCTN18042742.

Background: Evidence from animal models and observational epidemiology points to a role for chronic inflammation, in which interleukin 6 (IL-6) is a key player, in the pathophysiology of type 2 diabetes (T2D). However, it is unknown whether IL-6 mediated inflammation is implicated in the pathophysiology of T2D. Methods: We performed a meta-analysis of 15 prospective studies to investigate associations between IL-6 levels and incident T2D including 5,421 cases and 31,562 non-cases. We also estimated the association of a loss-of-function missense variant (Asp358Ala) in the IL-6 receptor gene (IL6R), previously shown to mimic the effects of IL-6R inhibition, in a large trans-ethnic meta-analysis of six T2D case-control studies including 260,614 cases and 1,350,640 controls. Findings: In a meta-analysis of 15 prospective studies, higher levels of IL-6 (per log pg/mL) were significantly associated with a higher risk of incident T2D (1·24 95% CI, 1·17, 1·32; P = 1 × 10−12). In a trans-ethnic meta-analysis of 260,614 cases and 1,350,640 controls, the IL6R Asp358Ala missense variant was associated with lower odds of T2D (OR, 0·98; 95% CI, 0·97, 0·99; P = 2 × 10−7). This association was not due to diagnostic misclassification and was consistent across ethnic groups. IL-6 levels mediated up to 5% of the association between higher body mass index and T2D. Interpretation: Large-scale human prospective and genetic data provide evidence that IL-6 mediated inflammation is implicated in the etiology of T2D but suggest that the impact of this pathway on disease risk in the general population is likely to be small. Funding: The EPICNorfolk study has received funding from the Medical Research Council (MRC) (MR/N003284/1, MC-UU_12015/1 and MC_PC_13048) and Cancer Research UK (C864/A14136). The Fenland Study is funded by the MRC (MC_UU_12015/1 and MC_PC_13046).

BackgroundPrior research suggested a differential association of 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25(OH)D) metabolites with type 2 diabetes (T2D), with total 25(OH)D and 25(OH)D3 inversely associated with T2D, but the epimeric form (C3-epi-25(OH)D3) positively associated with T2D. Whether or not these observational associations are causal remains uncertain. We aimed to examine the potential causality of these associations using Mendelian randomisation (MR) analysis.Methods and findingsWe performed a meta-analysis of genome-wide association studies for total 25(OH)D (N = 120,618), 25(OH)D3 (N = 40,562), and C3-epi-25(OH)D3 (N = 40,562) in participants of European descent (European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition [EPIC]-InterAct study, EPIC-Norfolk study, EPIC-CVD study, Ely study, and the SUNLIGHT consortium). We identified genetic variants for MR analysis to investigate the causal association of the 25(OH)D metabolites with T2D (including 80,983 T2D cases and 842,909 non-cases). We also estimated the observational association of 25(OH)D metabolites with T2D by performing random effects meta-analysis of results from previous studies and results from the EPIC-InterAct study. We identified 10 genetic loci associated with total 25(OH)D, 7 loci associated with 25(OH)D3 and 3 loci associated with C3-epi-25(OH)D3. Based on the meta-analysis of observational studies, each 1-standard deviation (SD) higher level of 25(OH)D was associated with a 20% lower risk of T2D (relative risk [RR]: 0.80; 95% CI 0.77, 0.84; p < 0.001), but a genetically predicted 1-SD increase in 25(OH)D was not significantly associated with T2D (odds ratio [OR]: 0.96; 95% CI 0.89, 1.03; p = 0.23); this result was consistent across sensitivity analyses. In EPIC-InterAct, 25(OH)D3 (per 1-SD) was associated with a lower risk of T2D (RR: 0.81; 95% CI 0.77, 0.86; p < 0.001), while C3-epi-25(OH)D3 (above versus below lower limit of quantification) was positively associated with T2D (RR: 1.12; 95% CI 1.03, 1.22; p = 0.006), but neither 25(OH)D3 (OR: 0.97; 95% CI 0.93, 1.01; p = 0.14) nor C3-epi-25(OH)D3 (OR: 0.98; 95% CI 0.93, 1.04; p = 0.53) was causally associated with T2D risk in the MR analysis. Main limitations include the lack of a non-linear MR analysis and of the generalisability of the current findings from European populations to other populations of different ethnicities.ConclusionsOur study found discordant associations of biochemically measured and genetically predicted differences in blood 25(OH)D with T2D risk. The findings based on MR analysis in a large sample of European ancestry do not support a causal association of total 25(OH)D or 25(OH)D metabolites with T2D and argue against the use of vitamin D supplementation for the prevention of T2D.

BackgroundLess than 20% of adolescents globally meet recommended levels of physical activity, and not meeting these recommended levels is associated with social disadvantage and rising disease risk. The determinants of physical activity in adolescents are multilevel and poorly understood, but the school's social environment likely plays an important role. We conducted a cluster randomised controlled trial to assess the effectiveness of a school-based programme (GoActive) to increase moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (MVPA) among adolescents.Methods and findingsNon-fee-paying, co-educational schools including Year 9 students in the UK counties of Cambridgeshire and Essex were eligible for inclusion. Within participating schools (n = 16), all Year 9 students were eligible and invited to participate. Participants were 2,862 13- to 14-year-olds (84% of eligible students). After baseline assessment, schools were computer-randomised, stratified by school-level pupil premium funding (below/above county-specific median) and county (control: 8 schools, 1,319 participants, mean [SD] participants per school n = 165 [62]; intervention: 8 schools, 1,543 participants, n = 193 [43]). Measurement staff were blinded to allocation. The iteratively developed, feasibility-tested 12-week intervention, aligned with self-determination theory, trained older adolescent mentors and in-class peer-leaders to encourage classes to conduct 2 new weekly activities. Students and classes gained points and rewards for engaging in any activity in or out of school. The primary outcome was average daily minutes of accelerometer-assessed MVPA at 10-month follow-up; a mixed-methods process evaluation evaluated implementation. Of 2,862 recruited participants (52.1% male), 2,167 (76%) attended 10-month follow-up measurements; we analysed the primary outcome for 1,874 participants (65.5%). At 10 months, there was a mean (SD) decrease in MVPA of 8.3 (19.3) minutes in the control group and 10.4 (22.7) minutes in the intervention group (baseline-adjusted difference [95% confidence interval] -1.91 minutes [-5.53 to 1.70], p = 0.316). The programme cost £13 per student compared with control; it was not cost-effective. Overall, 62.9% of students and 87.3% of mentors reported that GoActive was fun. Teachers and mentors commented that their roles in programme delivery were unclear. Implementation fidelity was low. The main methodological limitation of this study was the relatively affluent and ethnically homogeneous sample.ConclusionsIn this study, we observed that a rigorously developed school-based intervention was no more effective than standard school practice at preventing declines in adolescent physical activity. Interdisciplinary research is required to understand educational-setting-specific implementation challenges. School leaders and authorities should be realistic about expectations of the effect of school-based physical activity promotion strategies implemented at scale.Trial registrationISRCTN Registry ISRCTN31583496.

Abstract Background Cancer is a leading cause of mortality and morbidity worldwide. Prevention is recognised by many, including the World Health Organization, to offer the most cost-effective long-term strategy for the control of cancer. One approach that focuses on individuals is the provision of personalised risk information. However, whether such information motivates behaviour change and whether the effect is different with varying formats of risk presentation is unclear. We aim to assess the short-term effect of providing information about personalised risk of cancer in three different formats alongside lifestyle advice on health-related behaviours, risk perception and risk conviction. Methods In a parallel group, randomised controlled trial 1000 participants will be recruited through the online platform Prolific. Participants will be allocated to either a control group receiving cancer-specific lifestyle advice alone or one of three intervention groups receiving the same lifestyle advice alongside their estimated 10-year risk of developing one of the five most common preventable cancers, calculated from self-reported modifiable behavioural risk factors, in one of three different formats (bar chart, pictograph or qualitative scale). The primary outcome is change from baseline in computed risk relative to an individual with a recommended lifestyle at three months. Secondary outcomes include: perceived risk of cancer; anxiety; cancer-related worry; intention to change behaviour; and awareness of cancer risk factors. Discussion This study will provide evidence on the short-term effect of providing online information about personalised risk of cancer alongside lifestyle advice on risk perception and health-related behaviours and inform the development of interventions. Trial registration ISRCTN17450583. Registered 30 January 2018.

Abstract Background Accumulating evidence suggests that individual circulating saturated fatty acids (SFAs) are heterogeneous in their associations with cardio-metabolic diseases, but evidence about associations of SFAs with metabolic markers of different pathogenic pathways is limited. We aimed to examine the associations between plasma phospholipid SFAs and the metabolic markers of lipid, hepatic, glycaemic and inflammation pathways. Methods We measured nine individual plasma phospholipid SFAs and derived three SFA groups (odd-chain: C15:0 + C17:0, even-chain: C14:0 + C16:0 + C18:0, and very-long-chain: C20:0 + C22:0 + C23:0 + C24:0) in individuals from the subcohort of the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC)-InterAct case-cohort study across eight European countries. Using linear regression in 15,919 subcohort members, adjusted for potential confounders and corrected for multiple testing, we examined cross-sectional associations of SFAs with 13 metabolic markers. Multiplicative interactions of the three SFA groups with pre-specified factors, including body mass index (BMI) and alcohol consumption, were tested. Results Higher levels of odd-chain SFA group were associated with lower levels of major lipids (total cholesterol (TC), triglycerides, apolipoprotein A-1 (ApoA1), apolipoprotein B (ApoB)) and hepatic markers (alanine transaminase (ALT), aspartate transaminase (AST), gamma-glutamyl transferase (GGT)). Higher even-chain SFA group levels were associated with higher levels of low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C), TC/high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) ratio, triglycerides, ApoB, ApoB/A1 ratio, ALT, AST, GGT and CRP, and lower levels of HDL-C and ApoA1. Very-long-chain SFA group levels showed inverse associations with triglycerides, ApoA1 and GGT, and positive associations with TC, LDL-C, TC/HDL-C, ApoB and ApoB/A1. Associations were generally stronger at higher levels of BMI or alcohol consumption. Conclusions Subtypes of SFAs are associated in a differential way with metabolic markers of lipid metabolism, liver function and chronic inflammation, suggesting that odd-chain SFAs are associated with lower metabolic risk and even-chain SFAs with adverse metabolic risk, whereas mixed findings were obtained for very-long-chain SFAs. The clinical and biochemical implications of these findings may vary by adiposity and alcohol intake.

Physical activity declines during youth but most evidence reports on combined moderate and vigorous-intensity physical activity. We investigated how vigorous-intensity activity varies with age.Cross-sectional data from 24,025 participants (5.0–18.0 y; from 20 studies in 10 countries obtained 2008–2010) providing ≥1 day accelerometer data (International Children's Accelerometry Database (ICAD)). Linear regression was used to investigate age-related patterns in vigorous-intensity activity; models included age (exposure), adjustments for monitor wear-time and study. Moderate-intensity activity was examined for comparison. Interactions were used to investigate whether the age/vigorous-activity association differed by sex, weight status, ethnicity, maternal education and region.A 6.9% (95% CI 6.2, 7.5) relative reduction in mean vigorous-intensity activity with every year of age was observed; for moderate activity the relative reduction was 6.0% (5.6%, 6.4%). The age-related decrease in vigorous-intensity activity remained after adjustment for moderate activity. A larger age-related decrease in vigorous activity was observed for girls (−10.7%) versus boys (−2.9%), non-white (−12.9% to −9.4%) versus white individuals (−6.1%), lowest maternal education (high school (−2.0%)) versus college/university (ns) and for overweight/obese (−6.1%) versus healthy-weight participants (−8.1%). In addition to larger annual decreases in vigorous-intensity activity, overweight/obese individuals, girls and North Americans had comparatively lower average vigorous-intensity activity at 5.0–5.9 y.Age-related declines in vigorous-intensity activity during youth appear relatively greater than those of moderate activity. However, due to a higher baseline, absolute moderate-intensity activity decreases more than vigorous. Overweight/obese individuals, girls, and North Americans appear especially in need of vigorous-intensity activity promotion due to low levels at 5.0–5.9 y and larger negative annual differences. Keywords: ICAD, Motor activity, Child, Adolescent, Epidemiology

Abstract Background Three cross sectional studies suggest that neighbourhood greenspace may protect against incident diabetes. This study uses data from a longitudinal study with a large sample size to investigate the association between greenspace and the occurrence of incident diabetes over time. Methods Data was from the European Prospective Investigation of Cancer Norfolk, UK, cohort, recruitment 1993–2007 (N = 23,865). Neighbourhoods were defined as 800 m circular buffers around participants’ home locations, according to their home postcode (zip code). Greenspace exposure was defined as the percentage of the home neighbourhood that was woodland, grassland, arable land, mountain, heath and bog, according to the UK Land Cover Map. Cox proportional hazards regression examined the association between neighbourhood greenspace exposure and incident diabetes. The population attributable fraction assessed the proportion of diabetes cases attributable to exposure to least green neighbourhoods. Mediation analysis assessed if physical activity explained associations between greenspace and diabetes. Interaction analysis was used to test for the modifying effect of rurality and socio-economic status on the relationship between greenspace and diabetes. Models were adjusted for known and hypothesised confounders. Results The mean age of participants was 59 years at baseline and 55.1% were female. The mean follow-up time was 11.3 years. Individuals living in the greenest neighbourhood quartile had a 19% lower relative hazard of developing diabetes (HR 0.81; 95% CI 0.67, 0.99; p = 0.035; linear trend p = 0.010). The hazard ratio remained similar (HR 0.81; 95% CI 0.65, 0.99; p = 0.042) after adjusting for age, sex, BMI, whether a parent had been diagnosed with diabetes and socio-economic status at the individual and neighbourhood level. A HR of 0.97 was attributed to the pathway through physical activity in a fully adjusted model, although this was non-significant (95% CI 0.88, 1.08; p = 0.603). The incidence of diabetes in the least green neighbourhoods (with 20% greenspace on average) would fall by 10.7% (95% CI −2.1%, 25.2%; p = 0.106) if they were as green as the average neighbourhood observed across the whole cohort (59% greenspace on average). There were no significant interactions between rurality or socio-economic status and level of greenspace. Conclusions Greener home neighbourhoods may protect against risk of diabetes in older adults, although this study does not support a mediation role for physical activity. Causal mechanisms underlying the associations require further investigation.

Background and aimsMany countries lack resources to identify patients at risk of developing Type 2 diabetes mellitus (diabetes). We aimed to develop and validate a diabetes risk score based on easily accessible clinical data.MethodsProspective study including 5277 participants (55.0% women, 51.8±10.5 years) free of diabetes at baseline. Comparison with two other published diabetes risk scores (Balkau and Kahn clinical, respectively 5 and 8 variables) and validation on three cohorts (Europe, Iran and Mexico) was performed.ResultsAfter a mean follow-up of 10.9 years, 405 participants (7.7%) developed diabetes. Our score was based on age, gender, waist circumference, diabetes family history, hypertension and physical activity. The area under the curve (AUC) was 0.772 for our score, vs. 0.748 (pConclusionOur clinically-based score shows encouraging results compared to other scores and can be used in populations with differing diabetes prevalence.

BackgroundIn response to public concerns and campaigns, some United Kingdom supermarkets have implemented policies to reduce less-healthy food at checkouts. We explored the effects of these policies on purchases of less-healthy foods commonly displayed at checkouts.Methods and findingsWe used a natural experimental design and two data sources providing complementary and unique information. We analysed data on purchases of small packages of common, less-healthy, checkout foods (sugary confectionary, chocolate, and potato crisps) from 2013 to 2017 from nine UK supermarkets (Aldi, Asda, Co-op, Lidl, M&S, Morrisons, Sainsbury's, Tesco, and Waitrose). Six supermarkets implemented a checkout food policy between 2013 and 2017 and were considered intervention stores; the remainder were comparators. Firstly, we studied the longitudinal association between implementation of checkout policies and purchases taken home. We used data from a large (n ≈ 30,000) household purchase panel of food brought home to conduct controlled interrupted time series analyses of purchases of less-healthy common checkout foods from 12 months before to 12 months after implementation. We conducted separate analyses for each intervention supermarket, using others as comparators. We synthesised results across supermarkets using random effects meta-analyses. Implementation of a checkout food policy was associated with an immediate reduction in four-weekly purchases of common checkout foods of 157,000 (72,700-242,800) packages per percentage market share-equivalent to a 17.3% reduction. This decrease was sustained at 1 year with 185,100 (121,700-248,500) fewer packages purchased per 4 weeks per percentage market share-equivalent to a 15.5% reduction. The immediate, but not sustained, effect was robust to sensitivity analysis. Secondly, we studied the cross-sectional association between checkout food policies and purchases eaten without being taken home. We used data from a smaller (n ≈ 7,500) individual purchase panel of food bought and eaten 'on the go'. We conducted cross-sectional analyses comparing purchases of common checkout foods in 2016-2017 from supermarkets with and without checkout food policies. There were 76.4% (95% confidence interval 48.6%-89.1%) fewer annual purchases of less-healthy common checkout foods from supermarkets with versus without checkout food policies. The main limitations of the study are that we do not know where in the store purchases were selected and cannot determine the effect of changes in purchases on consumption. Other interventions may also have been responsible for the results seen.ConclusionsThere is a potential impact of checkout food polices on purchases. Voluntary supermarket-led activities may have public health benefits.

The association between fish consumption and new-onset type 2 diabetes is inconsistent and differs according to geographical location. We examined the association between the total and types of fish consumption and type 2 diabetes using individual participant data from 28 prospective cohort studies from the Americas (6), Europe (15), the Western Pacific (6), and the Eastern Mediterranean (1) comprising 956,122 participants and 48,084 cases of incident type 2 diabetes. Incidence rate ratios (IRRs) for associations of total fish, shellfish, fatty, lean, fried, freshwater, and saltwater fish intake and type 2 diabetes were derived for each study, adjusting for a consistent set of confounders and combined across studies using random-effects meta-analysis. We stratified all analyses by sex due to observed interaction (p = 0.002) on the association between fish and type 2 diabetes. In women, for each 100 g/week higher intake the IRRs (95% CIs) of type 2 diabetes were 1.02 (1.01–1.03, I2 = 61%) for total fish, 1.04 (1.01–1.07, I2 = 46%) for fatty fish, and 1.02 (1.00–1.04, I2 = 33%) for lean fish. In men, all associations were null. In women, we observed variation by geographical location: IRRs for total fish were 1.03 (1.02–1.04, I2 = 0%) in the Americas and null in other regions. In conclusion, we found evidence of a neutral association between total fish intake and type 2 diabetes in men, but there was a modest positive association among women with heterogeneity across studies, which was partly explained by geographical location and types of fish intake. Future research should investigate the role of cooking methods, accompanying foods and environmental pollutants, but meanwhile, existing dietary regional, national, or international guidelines should continue to guide fish consumption within overall healthy dietary patterns.