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Tracking studies for invasive lionfish (Pterois volitans and P. miles) in the Western Atlantic can provide key information on habitat use to inform population control, but to date have likely underestimated home range size and movement due to constrained spatial and temporal scales. We tracked 35 acoustically tagged lionfish for >1 yr (March 2018-May 2019) within a 35 km2 acoustic array in Buck Island Reef National Monument, St. Croix, US Virgin Islands (an area 10× larger than previous studies). Tracking lionfish at this scale revealed that home range size is 3-20 times larger than previously estimated and varies more than 8-fold across individuals (~48000-379000 m2; average: 101000 m2), with estimates insensitive to assumptions about potential mortality for low-movement individuals. Lionfish move far greater distances than previously reported, with 37% of fish traveling >1 km from the initial tagging site toward deeper habitats, and 1 individual moving ~10 km during a 10 d period. Movement rates, home range size, and maximum distance traveled were not related to lionfish size (18-35 cm total length) or lunar phase. Lionfish movement was lowest at night and greatest during crepuscular periods, with fish acceleration (m s-2) increasing with water temperature during these times. Our results help reconcile observed patterns of rapid recolonization following lionfish removal, and suggest complex drivers likely result in highly variable patterns of movement for similarly sized fish occupying the same habitat. Culling areas ≥ the average lionfish home range size identified here (i.e. ~10 ha) or habitat patches isolated by ≥ ~180 m (radius of average home range) may minimize subsequent recolonization. If the shallow-deep long-distance movements observed here are unidirectional, mesophotic habitats may require culling at relatively greater frequencies to counteract ongoing migration.

This paper describes a non-traditional fisheries management concept and an indicator-based framework to encourage and guide management of invasive lionfish (Pterois spp.) fisheries in the temperate and tropical western Atlantic. We introduce the concept of optimum lionfish yield (OLY)—an extension of the concept of ecologically sustainable yield—which considers local ecological health in the establishment of fishery management targets. In contrast to traditional fishery targets, OLY is a target exceeding maximum sustainable yield (MSY) that still provides relatively high sustainable yield, but further contributes to population suppression beyond what is achievable through targets at or below MSY. Thus, OLY seeks to balance management trade-offs from both natural resource and invasive species management perspectives. In this study, we developed an age-structured population model and applied the concept of OLY to quantify targets to initiate management of a nationally-managed lionfish fishery in Belize. Socioeconomic and ecological data were used as indicators to formulate OLY values. The model indicates that lionfish in Belize are biologically robust to fishing pressure, which corroborates previous findings. Fishing lionfish at rates above MSY levels is expected to substantially reduce population abundance, much more so than fishing at rates below MSY levels, while having relatively minimal impacts on yield. Population suppression can be further enhanced by reducing size at selection, but this is expected to be done at a significant cost to landings. Together, these data support continued establishment of (managed) commercial lionfish fisheries throughout the invaded range to provide an alternative sustainable fishery resource and serve as a means of national- and international-level control. While the concept and framework described here is introduced for management of invasive lionfish, it could be applied to management of other invasive species, both aquatic and terrestrial.

Parasites, by definition, have a negative effect on their host. However, in wild mammal health and conservation research, sub-lethal infections are commonly assumed to have negligible health effects unless parasites are present in overwhelming numbers. Here, we propose a definition for host health in mammals that includes sub-lethal effects of parasites on the host's capacity to adapt to the environment and maintain homeostasis. We synthesized the growing number of studies on helminth parasites in mammals to assess evidence for the relative magnitude of sub-lethal effects of infection across mammal taxa based on this expanded definition. Specifically, we develop and apply a framework for organizing disparate metrics of parasite effects on host health and body condition according to their impact on an animal's energetic condition, defined as the energetic burden of pathogens on host physiological and behavioural functions that relate directly to fitness. Applying this framework within a global meta-analysis of helminth parasites in wild, laboratory and domestic mammal hosts produced 142 peer-reviewed studies documenting 599 infection-condition effects. Analysing these data within a multiple working hypotheses framework allowed us to evaluate the relative weighted contribution of methodological (study design, sampling protocol, parasite quantification methods) and biological (phylogenetic relationships and host/parasite life history) moderators to variation in the magnitude of health effects. We found consistently strong negative effects of infection on host energetic condition across taxonomic groups, with unusually low heterogeneity in effect sizes when compared with other ecological meta-analyses. Observed effect size was significantly lower within cross-sectional studies (i.e. observational studies that investigated a sub-set of a population at a single point in time), the most prevalent methodology. Furthermore, opportunistic sampling led to a weaker negative effect compared to proactive sampling. In the model of host taxonomic group, the effect of infection on energetic condition in carnivores was not significant. However, when sampling method was included, it explained substantial inter-study variance; proactive sampling showing a strongly significant negative effect while opportunistic sampling detected only a weak, non-significant effect. This may partly underlie previous assumptions that sub-lethal parasites do not have significant effects on host health. We recommend future studies adopt energetic condition as the framework for assessing parasite effects on wildlife health and provide guidelines for the selection of research protocols, health proxies, and relating infection to fitness.

Trait-based approaches are increasingly recognized as a tool for understanding ecosystem re-assembly and function under intensifying global change. Here we synthesize trait-based research globally (n= 865 studies) to examine the contexts in which traits may be used for global change prediction. We find that exponential growth in the field over the last decade remains dominated by descriptive studies of terrestrial plant morphology, highlighting significant opportunities to expand trait-based thinking across systems and taxa. Very few studies (less than 3%) focus on predicting ecological effects of global change, mostly in the past 5 years and via singular traits that mediate abiotic limits on species distribution. Beyond organism size (the most examined trait), we identify over 2500 other morphological, physiological, behavioural and life-history traits known to mediate environmental filters of species' range and abundance as candidates for future predictive global change work. Though uncommon, spatially explicit process models—which mechanistically link traits to changes in organism distributions and abundance—are among the most promising frameworks for holistic global change prediction at scales relevant for conservation decision-making. Further progress towards trait-based forecasting requires addressing persistent barriers including (1) matching scales of multivariate trait and environment data to focal processes disrupted by global change, and (2) propagating variation in trait and environmental parameters throughout process model functions using simulation.

Many successful invasive species have generalist diets, but the extent to which they can track changing resources has seldom been documented. Stable isotope analysis was used to measure dietary shifts with ontogeny and over time in relation to changes in prey availability for Indo-Pacific lionfish (Pterois sp.). These are invasive predators that are well established throughout the western North Atlantic and Caribbean where they have caused significant decreases in native reef fish populations in some areas. Samples and observations were made off New Providence Island, Bahamas during the summers of 2008 and 2010. Lionfish δ15N and δ13C values increased only weakly with body length, suggesting that processes other than growth also contribute to stable isotope variability. The trophic niche of lionfish changed significantly between years, concomitant with large changes in native fish prey abundance and community structure. The trophic niche of large lionfish expanded, increasing in trophic diversity at the population level and showing lower individual trophic similarity, while that of small lionfish remained similar in size but shifted towards more 15N-enriched and 13C-depleted prey sources. The ability of lionfish to modify their diet over time may have facilitated their expansion and persistence at high densities in some areas despite local prey depletion.

As the impacts of climate change on human society accelerate, coastal communities are vulnerable to changing environmental conditions. The capacity of communities and households to respond to these changes (i.e., their adaptive capacity) will determine the impacts of climate and co-occurring stressors. To date, empirical evidence linking theoretical measures of adaptive capacity to community and household responses remains limited. Here, we conduct a global meta-analysis examining how metrics of adaptive capacity translate to human responses to change (Adapt, React, Cope response) in 22 small-scale fishing case studies from 20 countries (n = 191 responses). Using both thematic and qualitative comparative analysis, we evaluate how responses to climate, environmental, and social change were influenced by domains of adaptive capacity. Our findings show that adaptive responses at the community level only occurred in situations where the community had Access to Assets, in combination with other domains including Diversity and Flexibility, Learning and Knowledge, and Natural Capital. In contrast, Access to Assets was nonessential for adaptive responses at the household level. Adaptive households demonstrated Diversity and Flexibility when supported by strong Governance or Institutions and were often able to substitute Learning and Knowledge and Natural Capital with one another. Standardized metrics of adaptive capacity are essential to designing effective policies promoting resilience in natural resource-dependent communities and understanding how social and ecological aspects of communities interact to influence responses. Our framework describes how small-scale fishing communities and households respond to environmental changes and can inform policies that support vulnerable populations.

We explored patterns, rates and unexpected socio-ecological consequences of tooth replacement in serrasalmids and characids of the Peruvian Amazon using microcomputed tomography. Of 24 specimens collected in February 2019, representing a mix of red-bellied piranha Pygocentrus nattereri, redeye piranha Serrasalmus rhombeus, silver dollar fish Ctenobrycon hauxwellianus and mojara Astyanax abramis, six individuals possessed edentulous jaw quadrants. On average, 22.9% of fish collected per day from these species featured incomplete dentition, a value three to five times higher than anticipated based on replacement rates estimated from captive fish, differences that may be driven by ontogeny, seasonality or environmental quality.

Predation from the invasive Indo-Pacific lionfish is likely to amplify declines in marine fishes observed in multiple ocean basins. As the invasion intensifies and expands, there is an urgent need to identify species that are most at risk for extirpation-and possible extinction-from this added threat. To address this gap and inform conservation plans, we develop and apply a quantitative framework for classifying the relative vulnerability of fishes based on morphological and behavioural traits known to influence susceptibility to lionfish predation (e.g. body shape, water column position and aggregation behaviour), habitat overlap with lionfish, and degree of geographic range restriction. Applying the framework to fishes across the invaded Caribbean Sea and ahead of the invasion front in the southwestern Atlantic revealed the identity of at least 77 fishes with relatively small ranges that are likely to be most affected by lionfish predation. Trait-based vulnerability scores significantly predict the probability of fishes appearing within the diets of lionfish across the invaded region. Spatial richness analyses reveal hotspots of vulnerable species in the Bahamas, Belize and Curacao. Crucially, our framework identifies 29 vulnerable fishes endemic to Brazil, which has not yet been colonized by lionfish. Of these, we suggest reefs around offshore island groups occupied by a dozen highly vulnerable and range-restricted species as priorities for intervention should lionfish spread to the region. Observations of the rate of lionfish spread across the invaded range suggest that an average of 5 years (with a median of nearly 2 years) elapses from first sighting to maximum observed densities. This lag may allow managers to mobilize plans to suppress lionfish ahead of an invasion front in priority locations. Our framework also provides a method for assessing the relative vulnerability of cryptobenthic and/or deep-reef fishes, for which population-monitoring data are limited.

As global change forces species’ ranges and abundances into novel configurations, traits-based approaches could allow predictions of community re-assembly. We present a quantitative review of traits-based research globally to (1) evaluate the extent to which this approach has been applied, and (2) evaluate moving from description and to prediction. We highlight the application of traits-based frameworks to describe ecological patterns; terrestrial plant morphology comprises >30% of the literature alone. But fewer than 3% of studies predict ecological effects of global change, mostly in the past five years. While organism size is the most common trait, we identified 2,430 other morphological, physiological, behavioural, and life history traits that mediate environmental filters of species’ ranges across ecosystems and taxonomy. Global change studies forecast range shifts from a few physiological or life history traits. Though uncommon, spatially-explicit models constructed from correlated multivariate trait assemblages (or ‘syndromes’) offer the best chance of predicting shifts under global change scenarios. Moving the field towards trait-based prediction requires (1) matching the scale of trait measurement to the ecological processes, (2) increasing the resolution of environmental gradients along which traits are measured, (3) moving from single to multivariate traits, and (4) accounting for intraspecific trait variation.

Species invasions often occur at geographic scales that preclude complete eradication, setting up long term battles for population control. To understand the extent to which exotic species removal by volunteers can contribute to local invasion suppression and alleviate invasion effects, we studied the activities of volunteers culling invasive lionfish during annual ‘derby’ events in the Atlantic. From 2012–2014, single day derbies reduced lionfish densities by 52% over 192 km2 on average each year. Differences in recolonization and productivity between regions meant that annual events were sufficient to suppress the invasion below levels predicted to cause declines in native species in one region, but not the other. Population reduction was not related to catch per unit effort, confirming the importance of in situ monitoring to gauge control effectiveness. Culling by volunteers may be a useful tool in areas where exotic species are easily identified and safely captured, and culling can be promoted as an ongoing recreational activity. Strategically guiding volunteer effort towards sensitive or under-served habitats could aid practitioners in optimizing their use of limited resources for invasion management. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved

As the geographic ranges of species are increasingly altered by forces such as biological invasion and climate change, when and where will strong biotic interactions arise within reassembling communities? Prey selectivity data are often of limited use for predicting future consumptive interactions because they are specific to the identity and relative abundance of species in past assemblages. Here, we investigate whether the strength of consumptive interactions can be predicted based on a priori knowledge of behavioral traits that are hypothesized to affect the predation process and recur across species. To test this approach, we conducted multi-species foraging trials with coral-reef fishes in the Bahamas, a diverse, trait-rich fauna for which interactions are likely shifting rapidly due to the introduction of predatory Indo-Pacific lionfish. We evaluated predictions about the combined effects of three behavioral traits—water column position of both predator and prey, anti-predator aggregation behavior of prey, and hunting strategy of predators—on successive phases of the predation process and ultimately the strength of predator–prey interactions. Tracking predator and prey behaviors revealed that inter-specific variation in traits mediated relative encounter, attack, and capture rates between different predators and prey. Behaviorally driven bottlenecks at different stages of the process underpinned selective consumption by each predator species, resulting in large differences in total mortality rates among prey species. Our analysis also suggests that unique behaviors exhibited by invasive lionfish, rather than naive responses by prey, mediate their high foraging success relative to native predators. Our results illustrate how incorporating a priori knowledge about foraging and anti-predator traits can improve predictions of the strength of emergent consumptive interactions caused by global change. © 2019 The Authors.

A quarter of global oil production comes from offshore fields and about 60% of internationally-traded oil travels by tankers. The relationship between oil, fisheries, and coastal communities is documented primarily through case studies in individual jurisdictions and via the impacts of oil spills. Yet, the implications of oil development for fisheries and coastal communities are much broader. This study provides an extensive review of the effects of oil development in relation to four interconnected themes: 1) the environment, including marine habitats and fish; 2) small-scale fisheries and coastal community livelihoods; 3) coastal and ocean spaces, including disputes over territory and infrastructure; and 4) ocean and coastal governance processes. We map spatial overlaps between the oil sector and small-scale fisheries and point to the frequent displacement of fishers from fishing grounds due to increasing coastal traffic and infrastructure, and the catastrophic effects of oil spills on fisheries and coastal economies. Though the oil sector generally has negative impacts on fisheries livelihoods and coastal communities, these effects and their mechanisms vary across locations, ecosystems, species, and specific activities and groups. Overall, this narrative review provides a comprehensive account of the scholarship to date and points to key themes for future research, including intersections between offshore oil and gender, cross-sectoral governance, and the achievement of Sustainable Development Goal 14. Underpinning all of these challenges and potential solutions is a clear need for stronger integration of social and natural science knowledge, perspectives, and tools.

The environmental consequences of bitumen extraction from oil sands deposits are at the center of North American natural resource and energy policy debate, yet impacts on ocean environments have received little attention. Using a quantitative framework, we identify knowledge gaps and research needs related to the effects of oil sands development on marine biota. Fifteen sources of stress and disturbance – varying greatly in spatial and temporal scale – are generated via two pathways: (1) the coastal storage and oceanic transport of bitumen products, and (2) the contribution of industry-derived greenhouse gases to climate change in the ocean. Of highest research priority are the fate, behavior, and biological effects of bitumen in the ocean. By contrast, climate-change impacts are scientifically well established but not considered in key regulatory processes. Most stressors co-occur and are generated by other industries, yet cumulative effects are so far unaccounted for in decision making associated with new projects. Our synthesis highlights priority research needed to inform future energy development decisions, and opportunities for policy processes to acknowledge the full scope of potential and realized environmental consequences.

Indo-Pacific lionfish Pterois volitans/miles were likely introduced to Florida coastal waters via the aquarium trade and have spread rapidly along the southeastern coast of the United States and throughout the greater Caribbean region, including Bermuda and the Gulf of Mexico. This mesopredator has strong consumptive effects on native demersal fishes, especially on coral reefs but also including a variety of other nearshore habitats. The invader may also have substan- tial indirect effects on reef ecosystems by overconsuming ecologically important species. Given growing concern over what is likely the most damaging marine fish invasion to date globally, this Theme Section presents findings reported during a lionfish symposium at the Gulf and Caribbean Fisheries Institute annual conference convened in Panama City, Panama, in November 2015. New findings include mechanisms that enhance the success of the invader, the extremely broad and variable diet of invasive lionfish, the ecological effects of the invader on native fish populations in various environmental contexts, and non-consumptive interactions between invasive lionfish and native predators.

Small-scale fishing (SSF) communities face numerous current and future climate-related stressors. While many studies address the perceived resilience or latent adaptive capacity of these communities to such stressors, little existing work analyzes the observable responses of coastal communities to documented or ongoing climate-related stressors. Here we provide an analytical framework for exploring community responses to distinct stressors, as well as the attributes of communities that mediate different response types. We provide an example application of this framework to display the utility of this approach in categorizing observed community responses documented in existing literature. Application of this framework to the broader and growing body of literature describing responses of SSF communities to environmental perturbations will allow for greater insight into the characteristics of both communities and stressors that drive adaptive, reactive, or coping responses.

Hackerott et al. (2017) report that Indo-Pacific lionfish “had no apparent effect on native prey communities” (p. 9) on continuous reef-sites of the Belizean Barrier Reef (BBR). Based on a lack of observational evidence, they challenge existing evidence for the effects of predation by lionfish on native prey community structure and assert that previous experimentally measured effects are inflated by “unnaturally high lionfish densities” (p. 10). Managers may mistakenly interpret these conclusions as evidence that invasive lionfish are of little concern and that active management of lionfish should not be a conservation priority. We find the arguments presented in Hackerott et al. (2017) unconvincing and potentially misleading. Here, we seek to evaluate their conclusions in the context of the body of work on the lionfish invasion, and to clarify advice to marine resource managers in the invaded range. Specifically, we argue that (1) the low lionfish densities observed in Hackerott et al. (2017) are not predicted to cause observable lionfish effects—so the results offer no countervailing evidence; (2) the study design is ill-suited to identify lionfish-induced changes in prey abundance, were they to occur; (3) the analytical methods employed (correlation between lionfish and prey densities) do not represent a BACI design nor offer a reliable test of predatory effects; and (4) the authors minimize potentially important regional management activities that could affect lionfish population densities and mischaracterize the body of lionfish research that has come before. Scientists should rigorously challenge popular scientific narratives.However, the foundation of such challenges must be carefully designed experiments, sound methodology, and conservative interpretation of one’s findings.

Information on fish movement and growth is primarily obtained through the marking and tracking of individuals with external tags, which are usually affixed to anesthetized individuals at the surface. However, the quantity and quality of data obtained by this method is often limited by small sample sizes owing to the time associated with the tagging process, high rates of tagging-related mortality, and displacement of tagged individuals from the initial capture location. To address these issues, we describe a technique for applying external streamer and dart tags in situ, which uses SCUBA divers to capture and tag individual fish on the sea floor without the use of anesthetic. We demonstrate this method for Indo-Pacific lionfish (Pterois volitans/P. miles), species which are particularly vulnerable to barotrauma when transported to and handled at the surface. To test our method, we tagged 161 individuals inhabiting 26 coral reef locations in the Bahamas over a period of 3 years. Our method resulted in no instances of barotrauma, reduced handling and recovery time, and minimal post-tagging release displacement compared with conventional ex situ tag application. Opportunistic resighting and recapture of tagged individuals reveals that lionfish exhibit highly variable site fidelity, movement patterns, and growth rates on invaded coral reef habitats. In total, 24% of lionfish were resighted between 29 and 188 days after tagging. Of these, 90% were located at the site of capture, while the remaining individuals were resighted between 200 m and 1.1 km from initial site of capture over 29 days later. In situ growth rates ranged between 0.1 and 0.6 mm/day. While individuals tagged with streamer tags posted slower growth rates with increasing size, as expected, there was no relationship between growth rate and fish size for individuals marked with dart tags, potentially because of large effects of tag presence on the activities of small bodied lionfish (i.e.

Species invasions have a range of negative effects on recipient ecosystems, and many occur at a scale and magnitude that preclude complete eradication. When complete extirpation is unlikely with available management resources, an effective strategy may be to suppress invasive populations below levels predicted to cause undesirable ecological change. We illustrated this approach by developing and testing targets for the control of invasive Indo-Pacific lionfish (Pterois volitans and P. miles) on Western Atlantic coral reefs. We first developed a size-structured simulation model of predation by lionfish on native fish communities, which we used to predict threshold densities of lionfish beyond which native fish biomass should decline. We then tested our predictions by experimentally manipulating lionfish densities above or below reef-specific thresholds, and monitoring the consequences for native fish populations on 24 Bahamian patch reefs over 18 months. We found that reducing lionfish below predicted threshold densities effectively protected native fish community biomass from predation-induced declines. Reductions in density of 25–92%, depending on the reef, were required to suppress lionfish below levels predicted to overconsume prey. On reefs where lionfish were kept below threshold densities, native prey fish biomass increased by 50–70%. Gains in small (6 cm) size classes of native fishes translated into lagged increases in larger size classes over time. The biomass of larger individuals (15 cm total length), including ecologically important grazers and economically important fisheries species, had increased by 10–65% by the end of the experiment. Crucially, similar gains in prey fish biomass were realized on reefs subjected to partial and full removal of lionfish, but partial removals took 30% less time to implement. By contrast, the biomass of small native fishes declined by50% on all reefs with lionfish densities exceeding reef-specific thresholds. Large inter-reef variation in the biomass of prey fishes at the outset of the study, which influences the threshold density of lionfish, means that we could not identify a single rule of thumb for guiding control efforts. However, our model provides a method for setting reef-specific targets for population control using local monitoring data. Our work is the first to demonstrate that for ongoing invasions, suppressing invaders below densities that cause environmental harm can have a similar effect, in terms of protecting the native ecosystem on a local scale, to achieving complete eradication.

Chelsea M. Rochman,*,†,‡ Sara M. Kross,†,§ Jonathan B. Armstrong,†,∥,@ Michael T. Bogan,†,⊥,@ Emily S. Darling,†,#,@ Stephanie J. Green,†,¶,@ Ashley R. Smyth,†,▲,@ and Diogo Verissimo†,▼,@ †David H. Smith Conservation Research Program, Society for Conservation Biology, Washington, DC 20001, United States ‡School of Veterinary Medicine, Aquatic Health Program, University of California Davis, Davis, California 95616, United States Department of Wildlife, Fish and Conservation Biology, University of California Davis, Davis, California 95616-8627, United States USGS Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit, University of Wyoming, Laramie, Wyoming 82071, United States Department of Environmental Science, Management and Policy, University of California Berkeley, Berkeley, California 94720-3114, United States Marine Program, Wildlife Conservation Society, New York 10460-1099, United States Department of Integrative Biology, Oregon State University, Corvallis, Oregon 97331, United States Virginia Institute of Marine Science, College of William and Mary, Gloucester Point, Virginia 23062, United States Andrew Young School of Policy Studies, Department of Economics, Georgia State University, 33 Gilmer Street SE, Atlanta, Georgia 30303, United States

The invasion of western Atlantic marine habitats by two predatory Indo-Pacific lionfish, Pterois volitans and P. miles, has recently unfolded at an unprecedented rate, with ecological consequences anticipated to be largely negative. We take stock of recently accumulated knowledge about lionfish ecology and behaviour and examine how this information is contributing to our general understanding of the patterns and processes underpinning marine predator invasions, and to the specific issue of lionfish management. Lionfish were first reported off Florida in 1985. Since their establishment in The Bahamas in 2004, they have colonised 7.3 million km 2 of the western Atlantic and Caribbean region, and populations have grown exponentially at many locations. These dramatic increases potentially result from a combination of lifehistory characteristics of lionfish, including early maturation, early reproduction, anti-predatory defenses, unique predatory behaviour, and ecological versatility, as well as features of the recipient communities, including prey naivete, weak competitors, and native predators that are overfished and naive to lionfish. Lionfish have reduced the abundance of small native reef fishes by up to 95% at some invaded sites. Population models predict that culling can reduce lionfish abundance substantially, but removal rates must be high. Robust empirical estimates of the cost-effectiveness and effects of removal strategies are urgently needed because lionfish management will require a long-term, labour-intensive effort that may be possible only at local scales. The ultimate causes of the invasion were inadequate trade legislation and poor public awareness of the effects of exotic species on marine ecosystems. The lionfish invasion highlights the need for prevention, early detection, and rapid response to marine invaders.

A standard approach to improving the accuracy of reef fish population estimates derived from underwater visual censuses (UVCs) is the application of species-specific correction factors, which assumes that a species’ detectability is constant under all conditions. To test this assumption, we quantified detection rates for invasive Indo-Pacific lionfish (Pterois volitans and P. miles), which are now a primary threat to coral reef conservation throughout the Caribbean. Estimates of lionfish population density and distribution, which are essential for managing the invasion, are currently obtained through standard UVCs. Using two conventional UVC methods, the belt transect and stationary visual census (SVC), we assessed how lionfish detection rates vary with lionfish body size and habitat complexity (measured as rugosity) on invaded continuous and patch reefs off Cape Eleuthera, the Bahamas. Belt transect and SVC surveys performed equally poorly, with both methods failing to detect the presence of lionfish in >50 % of surveys where thorough, lionfish-focussed searches yielded one or more individuals. Conventional methods underestimated lionfish biomass by ~200 %. Crucially, detection rate varied significantly with both lionfish size and reef rugosity, indicating that the application of a single correction factor across habitats and stages of invasion is unlikely to accurately characterize local populations. Applying variable correction factors that account for site-specific lionfish size and rugosity to conventional survey data increased estimates of lionfish biomass, but these remained significantly lower than actual biomass. To increase the accuracy and reliability of estimates of lionfish density and distribution, monitoring programs should use detailed area searches rather than standard visual survey methods. Our study highlights the importance of accounting for sources of spatial and temporal variation in detection to increase the accuracy of survey data from coral reef systems.

Conservation successes can and do happen, however, the process by which society achieves them remains unclear. Using a novel culturomics approach, we analyse word usage within digitized texts to assess the chronological order in which scientists, the public, and policymakers engage in the conservation process for three prominent conservation issues: acid rain in North America, global DDT contamination, and the overexploitation of African elephants for ivory. Variation in the order and magnitude of sector responses among the three issues emphasizes that there are multiple pathways to conservation success and that science is just one component. Our study highlights that while scientists can initiate the process, policy change does not occur in the absence of public interest. We suggest that the fate of conservation action is not solely determined by the scientific soundness of the conservation plan, but rather requires the engagement of scientists, public, and policy makers alike.

Species invasions threaten marine biodiversity globally. There is a concern that climate change is exacerbating this problem. Here, we examined some of the potential effects of warming water temperatures on the invasion of Western Atlantic habitats by a marine predator, the Indo-Pacific lionfish (Pterois volitans and P. miles). We focussed on two temperature-dependent aspects of lionfish life-history and behaviour: pelagic larval duration, because of its link to dispersal potential, and prey consumption rate, because it is an important determinant of the impacts of lionfish on native prey. Using models derived from fundamental metabolic theory, we predict that the length of time spent by lionfish in the plankton in early life should decrease with warming temperatures, with a concomitant reduction in potential dispersal distance. Although the uncertainty around change in dispersal distances is large, predicted reductions are, on average, more than an order of magnitude smaller than the current rate of range expansion of lionfish in the Caribbean. Nevertheless, because shorter pelagic larval duration has the potential to increase local retention of larvae, local lionfish management will become increasingly important under projected climate change. Increasing temperature is also expected to worsen the current imbalance between rates of prey consumption by lionfish and biomass production by their prey, leading to a heightened decline in native reef fish biomass. However, the magnitude of climate-induced decline is predicted to be minor compared to the effect of current rates of lionfish population increases (and hence overall prey consumption rates) on invaded reefs. Placing the predicted effects of climate change in the current context thus reveals that, at least for the lionfish invasion, the threat is clear and present, rather than future.

Predicting and mitigating the effects of invasive Indo-Pacific lionfish Pterois volitans on Caribbean fish communities requires a thorough understanding of the species' predation behaviour in the invaded range, including the types and amounts of prey consumed and how foraging patterns vary in relation to extrinsic conditions. We studied the activity levels and prey consumption rates of lionfish on 12 shallow coral reefs in the Bahamas in relation to time of day and prey availability. Lion- fish predation rates and activity levels were significantly higher during crepuscular (dawn and dusk) periods than at mid-day. Available prey fish biomass was highest at dawn but lower at mid-day and dusk, suggesting that lionfish predation activity is not limited by prey availability alone. Our cal - culated average daily mass-specific prey consumption rates, which incorporated daily variation, was ~3 times the estimates obtained from studies of captive lionfish in their native range and of invasive lionfish observed only during the day. Our results will help to predict more accurately the effect of predation by invasive lionfish on native reef fish communities.

The invasion by Indo-Pacific lionfish (Pterois volitans and P. miles) of the western Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico is emerging as a major threat to coral reef communities across the region. Comparing native and introduced populations of invasive species can reveal shifts in ecology and behaviour that can accompany successful invasions. Using standardized field surveys replicated at multiple sites in Kenya and the Bahamas, we present the first direct comparisons of lionfish density, body size, biomass and behaviour between native and invaded coral reefs. We found that lionfish occur at higher densities with larger body sizes and total biomass on invaded Bahamian coral reefs than the ecologically equivalent species (P. miles) does on native Kenyan reefs. However, the combined average density of the five lionfish species (Pterois miles, P. antennata, P. radiata, Dendrochirus brachypterus and D. zebra) on Kenyan reefs was similar to the density of invasive lionfish in the Bahamas. Understanding the ecological processes that drive these differences can help inform the management and control of invasive lionfish.

1 The Center for Marine Resource Studies, The School for Field Studies, South Caicos, Turks and Caicos Islands, Department of Environment and Resource Studies, University of Waterloo, Waterloo, ON, Canada, Department of Integrative Biology, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR, USA, 4 Environmental Defense Fund, Boston, MA, USA, 5 Environmental Sustainability Research Centre, College of Life and Natural Sciences, University of Derby, Derby, UK, Waitt Institute, Washington, DC, USA, Centro de Investigaciones de Ecosistemas Costeros, Ciego de Avila, Cuba, Department of Marine Resources, Ministry of Agriculture, Marine Resources and Local Government, Nassau, Bahamas, Centre for Resource Management and Environmental Studies, The University of the West Indies, St. Michael, Barbados

15 Indo-Pacific lionfish have invaded large parts of the western Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf of 16 Mexico, and have already caused measurable declines in native Atlantic reef fauna. Culling 17 efforts are occurring across the region, particularly on coral reefs, to reduce local lionfish 18 abundances. Frequent culling has recently been shown to cause a shift towards more wary and 19 reclusive behaviour by lionfish, which has prompted calls for halting culls. However, the 20 effectiveness of culling per se is not in question. Culling successfully lowers lionfish numbers 21 and has been shown to stabilise or even reverse declines in native prey fish. In fact, partial 22 culling is often as effective as complete local eradication, yet requires significantly less time and 23 effort. Abandoning culling altogether would therefore be seriously misguided and a hindrance to 24 PeerJ PrePrints | http://dx.doi.org/10.7287/peerj.preprints.398v1 | CC-BY 4.0 Open Access | received: 28 May 2014, published: 28 May 2014 P re P rin ts conservation. We offer suggestions for how to design removal programs that minimize 25 behavioural changes and maximize culling success. 26

As a result of being hunted, animals often alter their behaviour in ways that make future encounters with predators less likely. When hunting is carried out for conservation, for example to control invasive species, these behavioural changes can inadvertently impede the success of future efforts. We examined the effects of repeated culling by spearing on the behaviour of invasive predatory lionfish (Pterois volitans/miles) on Bahamian coral reef patches. We compared the extent of concealment and activity levels of lionfish at dawn and midday on 16 coral reef patches off Eleuthera, The Bahamas. Eight of the patches had been subjected to regular daytime removals of lionfish by spearing for two years. We also estimated the distance at which lionfish became alert to slowly approaching divers on culled and unculled reef patches. Lionfish on culled reefs were less active and hid deeper within the reef during the day than lionfish on patches where no culling had occurred. There were no differences at dawn when removals do not take place. Lionfish on culled reefs also adopted an alert posture at a greater distance from divers than lionfish on unculled reefs. More crepuscular activity likely leads to greater encounter rates by lionfish with more native fish species because the abundance of reef fish outside of shelters typically peaks at dawn and dusk. Hiding deeper within the reef could also make remaining lionfish less likely to be encountered and more difficult to catch by spearfishers during culling efforts. Shifts in the behaviour of hunted invasive animals might be common and they have implications both for the impact of invasive species and for the design and success of invasive control programs.

Biotic resistance is the idea that native species negatively affect the invasion success of introduced species, but whether this can occur at large spatial scales is poorly understood. Here we re-evaluated the hypothesis that native large-bodied grouper and other predators are controlling the abundance of exotic lionfish (Pterois volitans/miles) on Caribbean coral reefs. We assessed the relationship between the biomass of lionfish and native predators at 71 reefs in three biogeographic regions while taking into consideration several cofactors that may affect fish abundance, including among others, proxies for fishing pressure and habitat structural complexity. Our results indicate that the abundance of lionfish, large-bodied grouper and other predators were not negatively related. Lionfish abundance was instead controlled by several physical site characteristics, and possibly by culling. Taken together, our results suggest that managers cannot rely on current native grouper populations to control the lionfish invasion.

Preclinical data indicate that expression of the ErbB family of receptors, such as HER-2 and HER-1 (EGFR) may be involved in endocrine resistance. Evidence of resistance from clinical studies has been inconsistent. The present study examined whether HER-2 gene amplification or HER-1 expression predicted response to tamoxifen.Three hundred and forty nine patients had estrogen receptor (ER)-positive breast cancer and received daily tamoxifen as initial therapy for advanced disease. HER-2 gene amplification, detected by fluorescence in situ hybridization, and HER-1 expression, evaluated by immunohistochemistry, was determined on 136 and 204 patients, respectively.HER-2 amplification was correlated with lower ER (P = 0.02), HER-1 positivity (P = 0.004), and HER-2 protein overexpression (P0.00001). The response rate was 56% for HER-2 non-amplified versus 47% for HER-2 amplified tumors (P = 0.38), and 58% for HER-1-negative versus 36% for HER-1-positive (P = 0.05). Time to treatment failure (TTF) was 7 months for non-amplified HER-2 tumors and 5 months (P = 0.007) for amplified HER-2 tumors, and there was a trend toward a better overall survival (OS) in patients with non-amplified HER-2 tumors (median 31 versus 25 months, respectively, P = 0.07). For positive versus negative HER-1 tumors, TTF was 4 versus 8 months (P = 0.08) and median survival was 24 versus 31 months (P = 0.41). Combining HER-1 expression and HER-2 gene status, patients with both negative HER-1 expression and non-amplified HER-2 had longer TTF (P = 0.001) and OS (P = 0.03) than if either were positive. In multivariate analysis, HER-2 was not an independent factor for TTF and OS, although HER-1 was significant for TTF only (P/= 0.001).Patients with HER-2 amplification and HER-1 expression had lower ER levels and were modestly less responsive to tamoxifen, suggesting that molecular events in addition to those involving the ErbB receptors are important in determining the endocrine-resistant phenotype.

Understanding how predators select their prey can provide important insights into community structure and dynamics. However, the suite of prey species available to a predator is often spatially and temporally variable. As a result, species-specific selectivity data are of limited use for predicting novel predator-prey interactions because they are assemblage specific. We present a method for predicting diet selection that is applicable across prey assemblages, based on identifying general morphological and behavioural traits of prey that confer vulnerability to predation independent of species identity. We apply this trait-based approach to examining prey selection by Indo-Pacific lionfish (Pterois volitans and Pterois miles), invasive predators that prey upon species-rich reef fish communities and are rapidly spreading across the western Atlantic. We first generate hypotheses about morphological and behavioural traits recurring across fish species that could facilitate or deter predation by lionfish. Constructing generalized linear mixed-effects models that account for relatedness among prey taxa, we test whether these traits predict patterns of diet selection by lionfish within two independent data sets collected at different spatial scales: (i) in situ visual observations of prey consumption and availability for individual lionfish and (ii) comparisons of prey abundance in lionfish stomach contents to availability on invaded reefs at large. Both analyses reveal that a number of traits predicted to affect vulnerability to predation, including body size, body shape, position in the water column and aggregation behaviour, are important determinants of diet selection by lionfish. Small, shallow-bodied, solitary fishes found resting on or just above reefs are the most vulnerable. Fishes that exhibit parasite cleaning behaviour experience a significantly lower risk of predation than non-cleaning fishes, and fishes that are nocturnally active are at significantly greater risk. Together, vulnerable traits heighten the risk of predation by a factor of nearly 200. Our study reveals that a trait-based approach yields insights into predator-prey interactions that are robust across prey assemblages. Importantly, in situ observations of selection yield similar results to broadscale comparisons of prey use and availability, which are more typically gathered for predator species. A trait-based approach could therefore be of use across predator species and ecosystems to predict the outcomes of changing predator-prey interactions on community dynamics.

Indo-Pacific lionfish (Pterois volitans and P. miles) have spread swiftly across the Western Atlantic, producing a marine predator invasion of unparalleled speed and magnitude. There is growing concern that lionfish will affect the structure and function of invaded marine ecosystems, however detrimental impacts on natural communities have yet to be measured. Here we document the response of native fish communities to predation by lionfish populations on nine coral reefs off New Providence Island, Bahamas. We assessed lionfish diet through stomach contents analysis, and quantified changes in fish biomass through visual surveys of lionfish and native fishes at the sites over time. Lionfish abundance increased rapidly between 2004 and 2010, by which time lionfish comprised nearly 40% of the total predator biomass in the system. The increase in lionfish abundance coincided with a 65% decline in the biomass of the lionfish's 42 Atlantic prey fishes in just two years. Without prompt action to control increasing lionfish populations, similar effects across the region may have long-term negative implications for the structure of Atlantic marine communities, as well as the societies and economies that depend on them.