Search

Abstract Climate change is currently one of humanity’s greatest threats. To help scholars understand the psychology of climate change, we conducted an online quasi-experimental survey on 59,508 participants from 63 countries (collected between July 2022 and July 2023). In a between-subjects design, we tested 11 interventions designed to promote climate change mitigation across four outcomes: climate change belief, support for climate policies, willingness to share information on social media, and performance on an effortful pro-environmental behavioural task. Participants also reported their demographic information (e.g., age, gender) and several other independent variables (e.g., political orientation, perceptions about the scientific consensus). In the no-intervention control group, we also measured important additional variables, such as environmentalist identity and trust in climate science. We report the collaboration procedure, study design, raw and cleaned data, all survey materials, relevant analysis scripts, and data visualisations. This dataset can be used to further the understanding of psychological, demographic, and national-level factors related to individual-level climate action and how these differ across countries.

BackgroundHypoglycemia threatens cognitive function and driving safety. Previous research investigated in-vehicle voice assistants as hypoglycemia warnings. However, they could startle drivers. To address this, we combine voice warnings with ambient LEDs. ObjectiveThe study assesses the effect of in-vehicle multimodal warning on emotional reaction and technology acceptance among drivers with type 1 diabetes. MethodsTwo studies were conducted, one in simulated driving and the other in real-world driving. A quasi-experimental design included 2 independent variables (blood glucose phase and warning modality) and 1 main dependent variable (emotional reaction). Blood glucose was manipulated via intravenous catheters, and warning modality was manipulated by combining a tablet voice warning app and LEDs. Emotional reaction was measured physiologically via skin conductance response and subjectively with the Affective Slider and tested with a mixed-effect linear model. Secondary outcomes included self-reported technology acceptance. Participants were recruited from Bern University Hospital, Switzerland. ResultsThe simulated and real-world driving studies involved 9 and 10 participants with type 1 diabetes, respectively. Both studies showed significant results in self-reported emotional reactions (P

Abstract Green technologies, such as solar panels, foster the use of clean energy, yet often involve large-scale investments. Hence, adoption by retail consumers has been a key barrier. Here, we show that message framing can significantly increase customers’ serious commitment to adopting solar panels by providing empirical evidence in the field from a large-scale randomized controlled trial with a nationwide online retailer in the Netherlands (N = 26,873 participants). We design four messages aimed at promoting the purchase behavior of solar panel installations. Our messages present outcomes for oneself or for the environment and highlight cost savings versus earnings (for oneself) or reducing emissions versus generating green electricity (for the environment). Across all messages, we observe a higher rate of customers committing to solar panels compared to the baseline. However, the framing in terms of financial savings for oneself was by far the most effective, resulting in a 40% higher level of commitment than the baseline and 30% higher than the average of the other three messages, which were not significantly different in effect from each other. Our results show that message framing is cost-efficient and scalable among retail consumers to promote large-scale investments in green technologies and thus clean energy.

Abstract The Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 was accompanied by practices of information warfare, yet existing evidence is largely anecdotal while large-scale empirical evidence is lacking. Here, we analyze the spread of pro-Russian support on social media. For this, we collected N = 349 , 455 $N = 349{,}455$ messages from Twitter with pro-Russian support. Our findings suggest that pro-Russian messages received ∼251,000 retweets and thereby reached around 14.4 million users. We further provide evidence that bots played a disproportionate role in the dissemination of pro-Russian messages and amplified its proliferation in early-stage diffusion. Countries that abstained from voting on the United Nations Resolution ES-11/1 such as India, South Africa, and Pakistan showed pronounced activity of bots. Overall, 20.28% of the spreaders are classified as bots, most of which were created at the beginning of the invasion. Together, our findings suggest the presence of a large-scale Russian propaganda campaign on social media and highlight the new threats to society that originate from it. Our results also suggest that curbing bots may be an effective strategy to mitigate such campaigns.

BackgroundHypoglycemia is a frequent and acute complication in type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM) and is associated with a higher risk of car mishaps. Currently, hypoglycemia can be detected and signaled through flash glucose monitoring or continuous glucose monitoring devices, which require manual and visual interaction, thereby removing the focus of attention from the driving task. Hypoglycemia causes a decrease in attention, thereby challenging the safety of using such devices behind the wheel. Here, we present an investigation of a hands-free technology—a voice warning that can potentially be delivered via an in-vehicle voice assistant. ObjectiveThis study aims to investigate the feasibility of an in-vehicle voice warning for hypoglycemia, evaluating both its effectiveness and user perception. MethodsWe designed a voice warning and evaluated it in 3 studies. In all studies, participants received a voice warning while driving. Study 0 (n=10) assessed the feasibility of using a voice warning with healthy participants driving in a simulator. Study 1 (n=18) assessed the voice warning in participants with T1DM. Study 2 (n=20) assessed the voice warning in participants with T1DM undergoing hypoglycemia while driving in a real car. We measured participants’ self-reported perception of the voice warning (with a user experience scale in study 0 and with acceptance, alliance, and trust scales in studies 1 and 2) and compliance behavior (whether they stopped the car and reaction time). In addition, we assessed technology affinity and collected the participants’ verbal feedback. ResultsTechnology affinity was similar across studies and approximately 70% of the maximal value. Perception measure of the voice warning was approximately 62% to 78% in the simulated driving and 34% to 56% in real-world driving. Perception correlated with technology affinity on specific constructs (eg, Affinity for Technology Interaction score and intention to use, optimism and performance expectancy, behavioral intention, Session Alliance Inventory score, innovativeness and hedonic motivation, and negative correlations between discomfort and behavioral intention and discomfort and competence trust; all P

Abstract To control the COVID-19 pandemic, countries around the world have implemented non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), such as school closures or stay-at-home orders. Previous work has estimated the effectiveness of NPIs, yet without examining variation in NPI effectiveness across countries. Based on data from the first epidemic wave of $$n=40$$ n = 40 countries, we estimate country-specific differences in the effectiveness of NPIs via a semi-mechanistic Bayesian hierarchical model. Our estimates reveal substantial variation between countries, indicating that NPIs have been more effective in some countries (e. g. Switzerland, New Zealand, and Iceland) as compared to others (e. g. Singapore, South Africa, and France). We then explain differences in the effectiveness of NPIs through 12 country characteristics (e. g. population age, urbanization, employment, etc.). A positive association with country-specific effectiveness of NPIs was found for government effectiveness, gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, population ages 65+, and health expenditures. Conversely, a negative association with effectiveness of NPIs was found for the share of informal employment, average household size and population density. Overall, the wealth and demographic structure of a country can explain variation in the effectiveness of NPIs.

BackgroundMicro- and macrovascular complications are a major burden for individuals with diabetes and can already arise in a prediabetic state. To allocate effective treatments and to possibly prevent these complications, identification of those at risk is essential. ObjectiveThis study aimed to build machine learning (ML) models that predict the risk of developing a micro- or macrovascular complication in individuals with prediabetes or diabetes. MethodsIn this study, we used electronic health records from Israel that contain information about demographics, biomarkers, medications, and disease codes; span from 2003 to 2013; and were queried to identify individuals with prediabetes or diabetes in 2008. Subsequently, we aimed to predict which of these individuals developed a micro- or macrovascular complication within the next 5 years. We included 3 microvascular complications: retinopathy, nephropathy, and neuropathy. In addition, we considered 3 macrovascular complications: peripheral vascular disease (PVD), cerebrovascular disease (CeVD), and cardiovascular disease (CVD). Complications were identified via disease codes, and, for nephropathy, the estimated glomerular filtration rate and albuminuria were considered additionally. Inclusion criteria were complete information on age and sex and on disease codes (or measurements of estimated glomerular filtration rate and albuminuria for nephropathy) until 2013 to account for patient dropout. Exclusion criteria for predicting a complication were diagnosis of this specific complication before or in 2008. In total, 105 predictors from demographics, biomarkers, medications, and disease codes were used to build the ML models. We compared 2 ML models: logistic regression and gradient-boosted decision trees (GBDTs). To explain the predictions of the GBDTs, we calculated Shapley additive explanations values. ResultsOverall, 13,904 and 4259 individuals with prediabetes and diabetes, respectively, were identified in our underlying data set. For individuals with prediabetes, the areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve for logistic regression and GBDTs were, respectively, 0.657 and 0.681 (retinopathy), 0.807 and 0.815 (nephropathy), 0.727 and 0.706 (neuropathy), 0.730 and 0.727 (PVD), 0.687 and 0.693 (CeVD), and 0.707 and 0.705 (CVD); for individuals with diabetes, the areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve were, respectively, 0.673 and 0.726 (retinopathy), 0.763 and 0.775 (nephropathy), 0.745 and 0.771 (neuropathy), 0.698 and 0.715 (PVD), 0.651 and 0.646 (CeVD), and 0.686 and 0.680 (CVD). Overall, the prediction performance is comparable for logistic regression and GBDTs. The Shapley additive explanations values showed that increased levels of blood glucose, glycated hemoglobin, and serum creatinine are risk factors for microvascular complications. Age and hypertension were associated with an elevated risk for macrovascular complications. ConclusionsOur ML models allow for an identification of individuals with prediabetes or diabetes who are at increased risk of developing micro- or macrovascular complications. The prediction performance varied across complications and target populations but was in an acceptable range for most prediction tasks.

Abstract False rumors (often termed “fake news”) on social media pose a significant threat to modern societies. However, potential reasons for the widespread diffusion of false rumors have been underexplored. In this work, we analyze whether sentiment words, as well as different emotional words, in social media content explain differences in the spread of true vs. false rumors. For this purpose, we collected $${\varvec{N}} =126{,}301$$ N = 126 , 301 rumor cascades from Twitter, comprising more than 4.5 million retweets that have been fact-checked for veracity. We then categorized the language in social media content to (1) sentiment (i.e., positive vs. negative) and (2) eight basic emotions (i. e., anger, anticipation, disgust, fear, joy, trust, sadness, and surprise). We find that sentiment and basic emotions explain differences in the structural properties of true vs. false rumor cascades. False rumors (as compared to true rumors) are more likely to go viral if they convey a higher proportion of terms associated with a positive sentiment. Further, false rumors are viral when embedding emotional words classified as trust, anticipation, or anger. All else being equal, false rumors conveying one standard deviation more positive sentiment have a 37.58% longer lifetime and reach 61.44% more users. Our findings offer insights into how true vs. false rumors spread and highlight the importance of managing emotions in social media content.

Abstract Emotions are regarded as a dominant driver of human behavior, and yet their role in online rumor diffusion is largely unexplored. In this study, we empirically study the extent to which emotions explain the diffusion of online rumors. We analyze a large-scale sample of 107,014 online rumors from Twitter, as well as their cascades. For each rumor, the embedded emotions were measured based on eight so-called basic emotions from Plutchik’s wheel of emotions (i.e., anticipation–surprise, anger–fear, trust–disgust, joy–sadness). We then estimated using a generalized linear regression model how emotions are associated with the spread of online rumors in terms of (1) cascade size, (2) cascade lifetime, and (3) structural virality. Our results suggest that rumors conveying anticipation, anger, and trust generate more reshares, spread over longer time horizons, and become more viral. In contrast, a smaller size, lifetime, and virality is found for surprise, fear, and disgust. We further study how the presence of 24 dyadic emotional interactions (i.e., feelings composed of two emotions) is associated with diffusion dynamics. Here, we find that rumors cascades with high degrees of aggressiveness are larger in size, longer-lived, and more viral. Altogether, emotions embedded in online rumors are important determinants of the spreading dynamics.

Unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) operate with large degrees of autonomy when executing tasks from a ground-based controller. In this work, we design an (immersive) interface for drone management. Our interface supports operators in mission execution of one or several (automated) UAVs within a fleet. This allows operators to assign tasks to UAVs, while safe operations are ensured through in-flight conflict detection and prevention. Our interface fulfills both functional (e.g., reliability) and non-functional requirements (e.g., perceived cognitive load during use). A key design challenge is the latency in information exchanges, which introduces information asymmetries between the humans and UAVs. We then validate the effectiveness of our interface design across several experiments. We find that our design reduces the perceived cognitive load and improves task performance. Altogether, this work has implications for designing interfaces in human-machine collaboration, so humans can effectively control, interact, or collaborate with automated machines, such as UAVs.

BackgroundTo provide effective care for inpatients with COVID-19, clinical practitioners need systems that monitor patient health and subsequently allow for risk scoring. Existing approaches for risk scoring in patients with COVID-19 focus primarily on intensive care units (ICUs) with specialized medical measurement devices but not on hospital general wards. ObjectiveIn this paper, we aim to develop a risk score for inpatients with COVID-19 in general wards based on consumer-grade wearables (smartwatches). MethodsPatients wore consumer-grade wearables to record physiological measurements, such as the heart rate (HR), heart rate variability (HRV), and respiration frequency (RF). Based on Bayesian survival analysis, we validated the association between these measurements and patient outcomes (ie, discharge or ICU admission). To build our risk score, we generated a low-dimensional representation of the physiological features. Subsequently, a pooled ordinal regression with time-dependent covariates inferred the probability of either hospital discharge or ICU admission. We evaluated the predictive performance of our developed system for risk scoring in a single-center, prospective study based on 40 inpatients with COVID-19 in a general ward of a tertiary referral center in Switzerland. ResultsFirst, Bayesian survival analysis showed that physiological measurements from consumer-grade wearables are significantly associated with patient outcomes (ie, discharge or ICU admission). Second, our risk score achieved a time-dependent area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) of 0.73-0.90 based on leave-one-subject-out cross-validation. ConclusionsOur results demonstrate the effectiveness of consumer-grade wearables for risk scoring in inpatients with COVID-19. Due to their low cost and ease of use, consumer-grade wearables could enable a scalable monitoring system. Trial RegistrationClinicaltrials.gov NCT04357834; https://www.clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04357834

To achieve net-zero emissions, public policy needs to foster rapid innovation of climate technologies. However, there is a scarcity of comprehensive and up-to-date evidence to guide policymaking by monitoring climate innovation systems. This is notable, especially at the center of the innovation process, where nascent inventions transition into profitable and scalable market solutions. Here, we discuss the potential of large language models (LLMs) to monitor climate technology innovation. By analyzing large pools of unstructured text data sources, such as company reports and social media, LLMs can automate information retrieval processes and thereby improve existing monitoring in terms of cost-effectiveness, timeliness, and comprehensiveness. In this perspective, we show how LLMs can play a crucial role in informing innovation policy for the energy transition by highlighting promising use cases and prevailing challenges for research and policy.

In digital medicine, patient data typically record health events over time (eg, through electronic health records, wearables, or other sensing technologies) and thus form unique patient trajectories. Patient trajectories are highly predictive of the future course of diseases and therefore facilitate effective care. However, digital medicine often uses only limited patient data, consisting of health events from only a single or small number of time points while ignoring additional information encoded in patient trajectories. To analyze such rich longitudinal data, new artificial intelligence (AI) solutions are needed. In this paper, we provide an overview of the recent efforts to develop trajectory-aware AI solutions and provide suggestions for future directions. Specifically, we examine the implications for developing disease models from patient trajectories along the typical workflow in AI: problem definition, data processing, modeling, evaluation, and interpretation. We conclude with a discussion of how such AI solutions will allow the field to build robust models for personalized risk scoring, subtyping, and disease pathway discovery.

The novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) has rapidly developed into a global epidemic. To control its spread, countries have implemented non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), such as school closures, bans of small gatherings, or even stay-at-home orders. Here we study the effectiveness of seven NPIs in reducing the number of new infections, which was inferred from the reported cases of COVID-19 using a semi-mechanistic Bayesian hierarchical model. Based on data from the first epidemic wave of n = 20 countries (i.e., the United States, Canada, Australia, the EU-15 countries, Norway, and Switzerland), we estimate the relative reduction in the number of new infections attributed to each NPI. Among the NPIs considered, bans of large gatherings were most effective, followed by venue and school closures, whereas stay-at-home orders and work-from-home orders were least effective. With this retrospective cross-country analysis, we provide estimates regarding the effectiveness of different NPIs during the first epidemic wave.

Information forms the basis for all human behavior, including the ubiquitous decision-making that people constantly perform in their every day lives. It is thus the mission of researchers to understand how humans process information to reach decisions. In order to facilitate this task, this work proposes LASSO regularization as a statistical tool to extract decisive words from textual content in order to study the reception of granular expressions in natural language. This differs from the usual use of the LASSO as a predictive model and, instead, yields highly interpretable statistical inferences between the occurrences of words and an outcome variable. Accordingly, the method suggests direct implications for the social sciences: it serves as a statistical procedure for generating domain-specific dictionaries as opposed to frequently employed heuristics. In addition, researchers can now identify text segments and word choices that are statistically decisive to authors or readers and, based on this knowledge, test hypotheses from behavioral research.

The Emissions Trading System in the European Union was introduced to achieve the climate goal of reducing emissions by around 43% between 1990 and 2030. Accordingly, the costs of emission allowances are part of power generation and, by extension, the price of electricity. Theoretical works thus suggest a positive relationship between the price of emission allowances and electricity. However, this has not been validated empirically for phase III of the Emissions Trading System in the short run as part of the price setting mechanism of electricity producers. Our evidence suggests an opposite effect: According to our empricial results, both European Power Exchange (EPEX) day-ahead and intraday markets are negatively affected during phase III. We further test for a potentially asymmetric influence with the help of quantile regressions. Altogether, the outcome has implications for policy-makers and calls for further attention by academics and policy-makers in the future design of the Emissions Trading System, especially under larger amount of renewables in the electricity system.