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BackgroundInvasive species threaten the productivity and stability of natural and managed ecosystems. Predicting the spread of invaders, which can aid in early mitigation efforts, is a major challenge, especially in the face of climate change. While ecological niche models are effective tools to assess habitat suitability for invaders, such models have rarely been created for invasive pest species with rapidly expanding ranges. Here, we leveraged a national monitoring effort from 543 sites over 3 years to assess factors mediating the occurrence and abundance of brown marmorated stink bug (BMSB, Halyomorpha halys), an invasive insect pest that has readily established throughout much of the United States.ResultsWe used maximum entropy models to estimate the suitable habitat of BMSB under several climate scenarios, and generalized boosted models to assess environmental factors that regulated BMSB abundance. Our models captured BMSB distribution and abundance with high accuracy, and predicted a 70% increase in suitable habitat under future climate scenarios. However, environmental factors that mediated the geographical distribution of BMSB were different from those driving abundance. While BMSB occurrence was most affected by winter precipitation and proximity to populated areas, BMSB abundance was influenced most strongly by evapotranspiration and solar photoperiod.ConclusionOur results suggest that linking models of establishment (occurrence) and population dynamics (abundance) offers a more effective way to forecast the spread and impact of BMSB and other invasive species than simply occurrence-based models, allowing for targeted mitigation efforts. Implications of distribution shifts under climate change are discussed. © 2022 The Authors. Pest Management Science published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Society of Chemical Industry.

The diet of adult parasitoid wasps is vital for their survival and reproduction. However, the availability of food resources, such as plant nectar, can vary widely in cropping systems, potentially affecting parasitoid fitness and thereby biological control of pests. The egg parasitoid Hadronotus pennsylvanicus (Ashmead) (Hymenoptera: Scelionidae) is a potential biological control agent of the pistachio pest Leptoglossus zonatus (Dallas) (Heteroptera: Coreidae). While H. pennsylvanicus is known to attack L. zonatus eggs in California, USA, parasitism rates in orchards are highly variable. Floral resource provisioning has the potential to enhance parasitoid longevity and thus improve parasitism rates, leading to reduced pest densities. Here, a combination of field and laboratory studies was used to assess the influence of flowering groundcovers on the reproductive fitness of H. pennsylvanicus and the abundance of L. zonatus. Evaluated groundcovers included oat (Avena sativa L.), cowpea (Vigna unguiculata L.), white mustard (Sinapis alba L.), and buckwheat (Fagopyrum esculentum Moench). Under laboratory conditions, buckwheat and mustard provided the greatest benefit to female H. pennsylvanicus longevity. However, females provided a buckwheat diet produced the greatest number of offspring over the course of their lifetime. In field trials, flowering groundcovers did not influence the abundance of H. pennsylvanicus nor parasitism rates on L. zonatus. While the availability of floral resources can improve the reproductive fitness of H. pennsylvanicus, the use of groundcovers in pistachio did not enhance biological control of L. zonatus. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]