Search

The COVID-19 pandemic and Russia’s war on Ukraine have impacted the global economy, including the energy sector. The pandemic caused drastic fluctuations in energy demand, oil price shocks, disruptions in energy supply chains, and hampered energy investments, while the war left the world with energy price hikes and energy security challenges. The long-term impacts of these crises on low-carbon energy transitions and mitigation of climate change are still uncertain but are slowly emerging. This paper analyzes the impacts throughout the energy system, including upstream fuel supply, renewable energy investments, demand for energy services, and implications for energy equity, by reviewing recent studies and consulting experts in the field. We find that both crises initially appeared as opportunities for low-carbon energy transitions: the pandemic by showing the extent of lifestyle and behavioral change in a short period and the role of science-based policy advice, and the war by highlighting the need for greater energy diversification and reliance on local, renewable energy sources. However, the early evidence suggests that policymaking worldwide is focused on short-term, seemingly quicker solutions, such as supporting the incumbent energy industry in the post-pandemic era to save the economy and looking for new fossil fuel supply routes for enhancing energy security following the war. As such, the fossil fuel industry may emerge even stronger after these energy crises creating new lock-ins. This implies that the public sentiment against dependency on fossil fuels may end as a lost opportunity to translate into actions toward climate-friendly energy transitions, without ambitious plans for phasing out such fuels altogether. We propose policy recommendations to overcome these challenges toward achieving resilient and sustainable energy systems, mostly driven by energy services.

Non-technical summary We summarize some of the past year's most important findings within climate change-related research. New research has improved our understanding of Earth's sensitivity to carbon dioxide, finds that permafrost thaw could release more carbon emissions than expected and that the uptake of carbon in tropical ecosystems is weakening. Adverse impacts on human society include increasing water shortages and impacts on mental health. Options for solutions emerge from rethinking economic models, rights-based litigation, strengthened governance systems and a new social contract. The disruption caused by COVID-19 could be seized as an opportunity for positive change, directing economic stimulus towards sustainable investments. Technical summary A synthesis is made of ten fields within climate science where there have been significant advances since mid-2019, through an expert elicitation process with broad disciplinary scope. Findings include: (1) a better understanding of equilibrium climate sensitivity; (2) abrupt thaw as an accelerator of carbon release from permafrost; (3) changes to global and regional land carbon sinks; (4) impacts of climate change on water crises, including equity perspectives; (5) adverse effects on mental health from climate change; (6) immediate effects on climate of the COVID-19 pandemic and requirements for recovery packages to deliver on the Paris Agreement; (7) suggested long-term changes to governance and a social contract to address climate change, learning from the current pandemic, (8) updated positive cost–benefit ratio and new perspectives on the potential for green growth in the short- and long-term perspective; (9) urban electrification as a strategy to move towards low-carbon energy systems and (10) rights-based litigation as an increasingly important method to address climate change, with recent clarifications on the legal standing and representation of future generations. Social media summary Stronger permafrost t

Dr. Aman Srivastava, research fellow at the Centre for Policy Research, and Dr. Leena Srivastava, deputy director general for science at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), recently spoke with One Earth about challenges and opportunities in India’s net-zero energy transition

Non-technical summary We summarize some of the past year's most important findings within climate change-related research. New research has improved our understanding of Earth's sensitivity to carbon dioxide, finds that permafrost thaw could release more carbon emissions than expected and that the uptake of carbon in tropical ecosystems is weakening. Adverse impacts on human society include increasing water shortages and impacts on mental health. Options for solutions emerge from rethinking economic models, rights-based litigation, strengthened governance systems and a new social contract. The disruption caused by COVID-19 could be seized as an opportunity for positive change, directing economic stimulus towards sustainable investments. Technical summary A synthesis is made of ten fields within climate science where there have been significant advances since mid-2019, through an expert elicitation process with broad disciplinary scope. Findings include: (1) a better understanding of equilibrium climate sensitivity; (2) abrupt thaw as an accelerator of carbon release from permafrost; (3) changes to global and regional land carbon sinks; (4) impacts of climate change on water crises, including equity perspectives; (5) adverse effects on mental health from climate change; (6) immediate effects on climate of the COVID-19 pandemic and requirements for recovery packages to deliver on the Paris Agreement; (7) suggested long-term changes to governance and a social contract to address climate change, learning from the current pandemic, (8) updated positive cost-benefit ratio and new perspectives on the potential for green growth in the short- A nd long-term perspective; (9) urban electrification as a strategy to move towards low-carbon energy systems and (10) rights-based litigation as an increasingly important method to address climate change, with recent clarifications on the legal standing and representation of future generations. Social media summary Stronger permafrost, QC 20211002

The global lockdown due to COVID-19 has reduced industrial activities, construction, tourism, material demand, and mobility. This has impacted many sectors of the global economy including the energy sector which has witnessed movements both towards and away from sustainability. Key trends observed include a reduced demand for both energy and energy services, zero to negative oil prices, disruptions in the supply chain of energy technologies and materials – specially for renewable energy, and a decline in investments. This has led to welcome reductions in greenhouse gas emissions and air pollution, revealed opportunities for new and digitalized business models and responsible lifestyle choices, but all these will be short lived if we go back to business as usual. Such behavioral and societal changes have revealed the potential for structural change and transitions in demand for energy services towards sustainability. An interesting revelation is that the positive fallouts for sustainable development are all related to what are commonly perceived to be difficult-to-overcome barriers such as lifestyle choices, behavior, and business models. Whereas the negative fallouts for sustainable development are the relatively easier to address issues of reinstating supply chains and kick-starting/accelerating investments in sustainable energy. As the world looks to recover from the economic and jobs related consequences of the pandemic, all stakeholders have a responsibility to ensure that we create a system of incentives to reward sustainable behavior while penalizing those actions that would take us back to the path of unsustainability. For the energy sector, this would translate not only to the choices that influence the supply of energy, including evaluating the balance of centralized and decentralized energy options, but also the choices that would impact the demand for energy itself! Re-examining these business models from the point of view of contributions to economic gro

COVID-19, first reported in China in the end of December 2019, took the world by storm. Even after a few weeks of experience with the virus, till then largely restricted to China, the rest of the world did not see the virus as a risk – let alone an existential threat to many! Within a matter of the next three to four weeks, the wheels of the world economy screeched to a halt. Among the first sectors to be hit was the airline industry. In an effort to curb the international transmission of COVID-19, country after country closed its borders to international air travel. This was soon followed by the closing of regional and domestic air travel too. With no other means to address the pandemic, Governments resorted to hygiene measures to check the spread of the virus, and both control as well as phase out the load on the health infrastructure of countries. This was invariably followed by a lockdown with nearly half the world under lockdown by the end of March 2020. How long would such drastic measures continue is yet uncertain. However, what is certain is the enormous economic impact of the shutdowns—the world is already said to be in a recession worse than that experienced in 2009 according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF). And the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) has warned that the economic impacts of the actions resulting from this pandemic will be felt for a very long time.