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We evaluate performance of the Catchment Land Surface Model (CLSM) under flood conditions after the assimilation of observations of the terrestrial water storage anomaly (TWSA) from NASA's Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE). Assimilation offers three key benefits for the viability of GRACE observations to operational applications: (1) near-real time analysis; (2) a downscaling of GRACE's coarse spatial resolution; and (3) state disaggregation of the vertically-integrated TWSA. We select the 2011 flood event in the Missouri river basin as a case study, and find that assimilation generally made the model wetter in the months preceding flood. We compare model outputs with observations from 14 USGS groundwater wells to assess improvements after assimilation. Finally, we examine disaggregated water storage information to improve the mechanistic understanding of event generation. Validation establishes that assimilation improved the model skill substantially, increasing regional groundwater anomaly correlation from 0.58 to 0.86. For the 2011 flood event in the Missouri river basin, results show that groundwater and snow water equivalent were contributors to pre-event flood potential, providing spatially-distributed early warning information.

Seasonal snow cover provides the majority of freshwater supplies for human society and natural ecosystems especially in semi-arid regions. For water resource managers, precise data regarding the spatiotemporal variability of snow cover and snow phenology is of paramount importance. Owing to the great spatial and temporal heterogeneity of the snowpack and the inaccessibility of high mountainous areas, gapless satellite remote sensing presents an unprecedented opportunity to monitor snow cover effectively and affordably on a fine scale, from different aspects, and with regular revisit time. This study derives the snow seasonality metrics (first day of snowfall, last day of snow melt; and snow cover duration) over a large semi-arid region in Morocco's Atlas Mountains. We calculate these metrics by combining over 10,000 images from Landsat 8 and Sentinel 2 satellites for four hydrological years (2016-2021) to create a harmonized product with a time interval of about 3 days using the Google Earth Engine (GEE) platform. This dense and large time series facilitates a gap-filling method to minimize and overcome the effect of cloud cover, and its assessment shows a positive correlation between the masked pixels and the interpolated ones. These methods allowed us to realize a map of the snow cover area and extract a homogeneous Normalized Difference Snow Index (NDSI) profile over the four years whereby we were able to determine the optimal threshold to separate the presence of snow from its absence. The results showed that derived snow cover metrics provide considerable variation in both time and space, where an increase in snowpack measurement values at higher elevations can be noted. Overall, the snow duration ranges between November and April depending on the characteristics of each hydrological year. The retrieved Landsat 8 and Sentinel 2 snow dates had a high level of agreement with in-situ data observations with almost a day-and-a-half delay with an overall accuracy equal to 0.96. The analysis of snow cover dynamics via GEE has offered the ability to calculate the first day of snowfall, last day of snowmelt, and snow cover duration annually at a pixel level, providing the user with the ability to track the seasonal and interannual variability in the timing of snowmelt toward a better understanding of how the hydrological cycles of higher latitude and mountainous regions are responding to climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Agent-based modeling provides a means for addressing the way human and natural systems interact to change landscapes over time. Until recently, evaluation of simulation models has focused on map comparison techniques that evaluate the degree to which predictions match real-world observations. However, methods that change the focus of evaluation from patterns to processes have begun to surface; that is, rather than asking if a model simulates a correct pattern, models are evaluated on their ability to simulate a process of interest. We build on an existing agent-based modeling validation method in order to present a temporal variant-invariant analysis (TVIA). The enhanced method, which focuses on analyzing the uncertainty in simulation results, examines the degree to which outcomes from multiple model runs match some reference to how land use parcels make the transition from one land use class to another over time. We apply TVIA to results from an agent-based model that simulates the relationships between landowner decisions and wildfire risk in the wildland-urban interface of the southern Willamette Valley, Oregon, USA. The TVIA approach demonstrates a novel ability to examine uncertainty across time to provide an understanding of how the model emulates the system of interest. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]