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© The Author(s), 2020. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Zhang, J., Spitz, Y. H., Steele, M., Ashjian, C., Campbell, R., & Schweiger, A. Biophysical consequences of a relaxing Beaufort Gyre. Geophysical Research Letters, 47(2), (2020): e2019GL085990, doi:10.1029/2019GL085990., A biophysical model shows that Beaufort Gyre (BG) intensification in 2004–2016 is followed by relaxation in 2017–2018, based on a BG variability index. BG intensification leads to enhanced downwelling in the central Canada Basin (CCB) and upwelling along the coast. In the CCB, enhanced downwelling reduces nutrients, thus lowering primary productivity (PP) and plankton biomass. Enhanced upwelling along the coast and in parts of the Chukchi shelf/slope increases nutrients, leading to elevated PP/biomass in the Pacific Arctic Ocean (PAO) outside of the CCB. The overall PAO PP/biomass is dominated by the shelf/slope response and thus increases during BG intensification. As the BG relaxes in 2017–2018, these processes largely reverse, with increasing PP/biomass in the CCB and decreasing PP/biomass in most of the shelf/slope regions. Because the shelf/slope regions are much more productive than the CCB, BG relaxation has the tendency to reduce the overall production in the PAO., This work is funded by the NASA Cryosphere Program (NNX15AG68G and NNX17AD27G), the NSF Office of Polar Programs (PLR‐1416920, PLR‐1603259, PLR‐1603266, OPP‐1751363, PLR‐1602521, and PLR‐1503298), the NOAA Climate Program Office (NA15OAR4310170 and NA15OAR4320063AM170), and ONR (N00014‐17‐1‐2545). We thank Drs. Benjamin Rabe and Edward Doddridge for their constructive comments and Kay Runciman for graphics support. CFS reanalysis data used for model forcing are available online (https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/data‐access/model‐data/model‐datasets/climate‐forecast‐system‐version2‐cfsv2). Model results are in https://pscfiles.apl.uw.edu/zhang/BIOMAS168x180/ website.

Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2018. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Geophysical Research-Oceans, 123(11), (2018): 7983-8003. doi:10.1029/2018JC014298., A melt pond (MP) distribution equation has been developed and incorporated into the Marginal Ice‐Zone Modeling and Assimilation System to simulate Arctic MPs and sea ice over 1979–2016. The equation differs from previous MP models and yet benefits from previous studies for MP parameterizations as well as a range of observations for model calibration. Model results show higher magnitude of MP volume per unit ice area and area fraction in most of the Canada Basin and the East Siberian Sea and lower magnitude in the central Arctic. This is consistent with Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer observations, evaluated with Measurements of Earth Data for Environmental Analysis (MEDEA) data, and closely related to top ice melt per unit ice area. The model simulates a decrease in the total Arctic sea ice volume and area, owing to a strong increase in bottom and lateral ice melt. The sea ice decline leads to a strong decrease in the total MP volume and area. However, the Arctic‐averaged MP volume per unit ice area and area fraction show weak, statistically insignificant downward trends, which is linked to the fact that MP water drainage per unit ice area is increasing. It is also linked to the fact that MP volume and area decrease relatively faster than ice area. This suggests that overall the actual MP conditions on ice have changed little in the past decades as the ice cover is retreating in response to Arctic warming, thus consistent with the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer observations that show no clear trend in MP area fraction over 2000–2011., We gratefully acknowledge the support of the NASA Cryosphere Program (grants NNX15AG68G, NNX17AD27G, and NNX14AH61G), the Office of Naval Research (N00014‐12‐1‐0112), the NSF Office of Polar Programs (PLR‐1416920, PLR‐1603259, PLR‐1602521, and ARC‐1203425), and the Department of Homeland Security (DHS, 2014‐ST‐061‐ML‐0002). The DHS grant is coordinated through the Arctic Domain Awareness Center (ADAC), a DHS Center of Excellence, which conducts maritime research and development for the Arctic region. The views and conclusions in this document are those of the authors and should not be interpreted as representing the official policies, either expressed or implied, of the DHS. MODIS‐derived MP area data are available at https://icdc.cen.uni‐hamburg.de/1/daten/cryosphere/arctic‐meltponds.html. MP area fraction statistics derived from MEDEA images are available from http://psc.apl.uw.edu/melt‐pond‐data/. Sea ice thickness and snow observations are available at http://psc.apl.washington.edu/sea_ice_cdr. CFS forcing data used to drive MIZMAS are available at https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/data‐access/model‐data/model‐datasets/climate‐forecast‐system‐version2‐cfsv2., 2019-04-18

Most coral reef organisms have a bipartite life-cycle; they are site attached to reefs as adults but have pelagic larval stages that allow them to disperse to other reefs. Connectivity among coral reef patches is critical to the survival of local populations of reef organisms, and requires movement across gaps that are not suitable habitat for recruitment. Knowledge of population connectivity among individual reef habitats within a broader geographic region of coral reefs has been identified as key to developing efficient spatial management strategies to protect marine ecosystems. The study of larval connectivity of marine organisms is a complex multidisciplinary challenge that is difficult to address by direct observation alone. An approach that couples ocean circulation models with individual based models (IBMs) of larvae with different degrees of life-history complexity has been previously used to assess connectivity patterns in several coral reef regions (e.g., the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) and the Caribbean). We applied the IBM particle tracking approach to the Kenya-Tanzania region, which exhibits strong seasonality in the alongshore currents due to the influence of the monsoon. A 3-dimensional (3D) ocean circulation model with 2 km horizontal resolution was coupled to IBMs that track virtual larvae released from each of 661 reef habitats, associated with 15 distinct regions. Given that reefs provide homes to numerous species, each with distinctive, and in aggregate very diverse life-histories, several life-history scenarios were modeled to examine the variety of dispersal and connectivity patterns possible. We characterize virtual larvae of Acropora corals and Acanthurus surgeonfish, two coral reef inhabitants with greatly differing pelagic life-histories, to examine the effects of short (<12 days) and long (>50 days) pelagic larval durations (PLD), differences in swimming abilities (implemented as reef perception distances), and active depth keeping in reef c

© The Author(s), 2014. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans 119 (2014): 297-312, doi:10.1002/2013JC009301., A coupled biophysical model is used to examine the impact of the great Arctic cyclone of early August 2012 on the marine planktonic ecosystem in the Pacific sector of the Arctic Ocean (PSA). Model results indicate that the cyclone influences the marine planktonic ecosystem by enhancing productivity on the shelves of the Chukchi, East Siberian, and Laptev seas during the storm. Although the cyclone's passage in the PSA lasted only a few days, the simulated biological effects on the shelves last 1 month or longer. At some locations on the shelves, primary productivity (PP) increases by up to 90% and phytoplankton biomass by up to 40% in the wake of the cyclone. The increase in zooplankton biomass is up to 18% on 31 August and remains 10% on 15 September, more than 1 month after the storm. In the central PSA, however, model simulations indicate a decrease in PP and plankton biomass. The biological gain on the shelves and loss in the central PSA are linked to two factors. (1) The cyclone enhances mixing in the upper ocean, which increases nutrient availability in the surface waters of the shelves; enhanced mixing in the central PSA does not increase productivity because nutrients there are mostly depleted through summer draw down by the time of the cyclone's passage. (2) The cyclone also induces divergence, resulting from the cyclone's low-pressure system that drives cyclonic sea ice and upper ocean circulation, which transports more plankton biomass onto the shelves from the central PSA. The simulated biological gain on the shelves is greater than the loss in the central PSA, and therefore, the production on average over the entire PSA is increased by the cyclone. Because the gain on the shelves is offset by the loss in the central PSA, the average increase over the entire PSA is moderate and lasts only about 10 days. The generally positive impact of cyclones on the marine ecosystem in the Arctic, particularly on the shelves, is likely to grow with increasing summer cy, This work is supported by the NSF Office of Polar Programs and the NASA Cryosphere Program.

Author Posting. © Arctic Institute of North America, 2010. This article is posted here by permission of Arctic Institute of North America for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Arctic 63 (2010): 179-194., The annual migration of bowhead whales (Balaena mysticetus) past Barrow, Alaska, has provided subsistence hunting to Iñupiat for centuries. Bowheads recurrently feed on aggregations of zooplankton prey near Barrow in autumn. The mechanisms that form these aggregations, and the associations between whales and oceanography, were investigated using field sampling, retrospective analysis, and traditional knowledge interviews. Oceanographic and aerial surveys were conducted near Barrow during August and September in 2005 and 2006. Multiple water masses were observed, and close coupling between water mass type and biological characteristics was noted. Short-term variability in hydrography was associated with changes in wind speed and direction that profoundly affected plankton taxonomic composition. Aggregations of ca. 50–100 bowhead whales were observed in early September of both years at locations consistent with traditional knowledge. Retrospective analyses of records for 1984–2004 also showed that annual aggregations of whales near Barrow were associated with wind speed and direction. Euphausiids and copepods appear to be upwelled onto the Beaufort Sea shelf during Eor SEwinds. A favorable feeding environment is produced when these plankton are retained and concentrated on the shelf by the prevailing westward Beaufort Sea shelf currents that converge with the Alaska Coastal Current flowing to the northeast along the eastern edge of Barrow Canyon., This work was supported by NSF Grants OPPPP-0436131 to C. Ashjian (S. Braund Subcontract), OPPPP-0436110 to R. Campbell, OPPPP-0436127 to W. Maslowski, OPPPP-0436009 to C. Nicolson and J. Kruse, OPPPP-043166 to S. Okkonen, and OPPPP-0435956 to Y. Spitz, E. Sherr, and B. Sherr.

Author Posting. © Inter-Research, 2008. This article is posted here by permission of Inter-Research for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Marine Ecology Progress Series 360 (2008): 163-178, doi:10.3354/meps07387., Euphausiids are commonly found in the stomachs of bowhead whales Balaena mysticetus hunted near Barrow, Alaska; however, no evidence exists of a self-sustaining population in this region. To explain euphausiid presence near Barrow, their transport from the northern Bering Sea was investigated through particle tracking experiments using velocity fields from an ocean general circulation model in 4 contrasted circulation scenarios (1997, 1998, 2002 and 2003). Euphausiids were released during their spawning season (April-June) in the bottom and surface layers in the northern Bering Sea, their endemic region, and tracked through the Chukchi-Beaufort Sea. Results show that both Anadyr Gulf and Shpanberg Strait are potential regions of origin for euphausiids. Topographically steered bottom particles have 4 to 5 times higher probability of reaching Barrow than surface particles (ca. 95% versus 20% of particles). As euphausiids are often found near the bottom on the northern Bering shelf, this suggests a very high probability of euphausiids reaching Barrow, making this location a privileged area for whale feeding. The main pathways to Barrow across the Chukchi Sea shelf are Central Valley (CV) and Herald Valley (HV). The transit to Barrow takes 4 to 20 mo. Arrivals at Barrow have 2 peaks at ca. 200 d (fall, CV particles) and 395 d after release (spring, mixed CV and HV) on average, because of the seasonal cycle of the Chukchi Sea currents. Elevated euphausiid abundance in the fall at Barrow is favored by a high Bering Strait northward transport and by southerly winds, driving organisms through CV rather than through the HV pathway., This work was supported by NSF grant # OPP-0435956., 2013-05-22

[EN] This thesis investigates physical-ecological and vortex-wave interactions through potential vorticity (PV) considering a stratified and oligotrophic ocean. To this end, a NPZ (Nutrients-Phytoplankton-Zooplankton) model is coupled to a physical one that conserves PV explicitly on isopycnals. The physical-ecological coupled model is initialized using stationary NPZ solutions numerically stable with the fluid at rest. These solutions are implemented homogeneous both on horizontal and isopycnals levels to quantify the effect of horizontal and vertical advection caused by mesoscale and submesoscale vortex structures, and isopycnal mixing. At the interior of the vortex separatrix, plankton and PV distributions translate in phase at vortex propagation speed. Within cyclones, isopycnal doming enhances plankton biomass at the vortex center in different trophic conditions. Furthermore, isopycnal mixing associated to small-scale motions maximizes the phytoplankton (P) biomass in cyclones through a resonant response between P and diffusive timescales. This P increase is significant in mesotrophic conditions and occurs where the vertical displacement of isopycnals is maximum, and hence where vertical gradients of PV are large. At the separatrix outer, horizontal and vertical advection are of the same order of magnitude than the ecological forcing and enhance P through different mechanisms. Firstly, vertical velocity w uplifts nutrients and P to better lit levels. P responds with some time lag to this perturbation and the associated increase in biomass occurs far from the upwelling location due to the action of horizontal advection. As a result, P correlates with w, and thus with horizontal gradients of PV, only at initial times. In the particular case of translating cyclones, this mechanism explains the development of a P trail at their wake. And secondly, the horizontal advection of a surface ecosystem patch by subsurface vortices decreases P self-shading at the patch fron, [ES] Esta tesis investiga interacciones físico biológicas y onda-vórtice a través de la vorticidad potencial (VP) considerando un océano estratificado y oligotrófico. Un modelo NPZ (Nutrientes-Fitoplancton-Zooplancton) ha sido acoplado a uno físico que conserva la VP explícitamente en isopicnas. El modelo acoplado se inicializa utilizando soluciones NPZ estacionarias y numéricamente estables con el fluido en reposo. Estas soluciones se implementan como distribuciones homogéneas en niveles horizontales y en isopicnos para cuantificar el efecto de la advección horizontal y vertical debidas a estructuras submesoescalares y mezcla isopicna. En el interior de la separatriz del vórtice, las distribuciones de plancton y VP se trasladan en fase a la velocidad de propagación del vórtice. En ciclones, el abombamiento de las isopicnas incrementa la biomasa de fitoplancton (P) en el centro del vórtice en diferentes condiciones tróficas. Además, la mezcla isopicna asociada al movimiento de pequeña escala maximiza la biomasa de P en ciclones mediante una respuesta resonántica entre la escala temporal de P y la difusiva. Este incóficas y ocurre donde el desplazamiento vertical de las isopicnas es máximo, y por tanto donde los gradientes verticales de VP son grandes. Fuera de la separatriz, la advección horizontal y vertical son del mismo orden de magnitud que el forzamiento ecológico, e incrementan el P mediante diferentes mecanismos. En primer lugar, la velocidad vertical w eleva nutrientes y P a niveles más iluminados. En consecuencia, el P se correlaciona con la w, y por tanto con gradientes horizontales de VP, sólo inicialmente. En el caso particular de vórtices en traslación, este mecanismo genera una cola de P en la estela de éstos. En segundo lugar, la advección horizontal de un ecosistema superficial por vórtices subsuperficiales disminuye el apantallamiento del P en el frente del ecosistema aumentando el crecimiento del P. Finalmente, se investigan interacciones entre est

Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2007. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Geophysical Research 112 (2007): C08001, doi:10.1029/2006JC003852., Application of biogeochemical models to the study of marine ecosystems is pervasive, yet objective quantification of these models' performance is rare. Here, 12 lower trophic level models of varying complexity are objectively assessed in two distinct regions (equatorial Pacific and Arabian Sea). Each model was run within an identical one-dimensional physical framework. A consistent variational adjoint implementation assimilating chlorophyll-a, nitrate, export, and primary productivity was applied and the same metrics were used to assess model skill. Experiments were performed in which data were assimilated from each site individually and from both sites simultaneously. A cross-validation experiment was also conducted whereby data were assimilated from one site and the resulting optimal parameters were used to generate a simulation for the second site. When a single pelagic regime is considered, the simplest models fit the data as well as those with multiple phytoplankton functional groups. However, those with multiple phytoplankton functional groups produced lower misfits when the models are required to simulate both regimes using identical parameter values. The cross-validation experiments revealed that as long as only a few key biogeochemical parameters were optimized, the models with greater phytoplankton complexity were generally more portable. Furthermore, models with multiple zooplankton compartments did not necessarily outperform models with single zooplankton compartments, even when zooplankton biomass data are assimilated. Finally, even when different models produced similar least squares model-data misfits, they often did so via very different element flow pathways, highlighting the need for more comprehensive data sets that uniquely constrain these pathways., This research was supported by the U.S. National Science Foundation through the JGOFS Synthesis and Modeling Project (OCE-0097285) and the National Aeronautics and Space Agency (NAG5-11259 and NNG05GO04G), as well as numerous other grants to the various investigators who participated.

Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2010. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Geophysical Research 115 (2010): C10015, doi:10.1029/2009JC005387., We have developed a coupled 3-D pan-Arctic biology/sea ice/ocean model to investigate the impact of declining Arctic sea ice on the marine planktonic ecosystem over 1988–2007. The biophysical model results agree with satellite observations of a generally downward trend in summer sea ice extent during 1988–2007, resulting in an increase in the simulated photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) at the ocean surface and marine primary productivity (PP) in the upper 100 m over open water areas of the Arctic Ocean. The simulated Arctic sea ice thickness has decreased steadily during 1988–2007, leading to an increase in PAR and PP in sea ice-covered areas. The simulated total PAR in all areas of the Arctic Ocean has increased by 43%, from 146 TW in 1988 to 209 TW in 2007; the corresponding total PP has increased by 50%, from 456 Tg C yr−1 in 1988 to 682 Tg C yr−1 in 2007. The simulated PAR and PP increases mainly occur in the seasonally and permanently ice-covered Arctic Ocean. In addition to increasing PAR, the decline in sea ice tends to increase the nutrient availability in the euphotic zone by enhancing air-sea momentum transfer, leading to strengthened upwelling and mixing in the water column and therefore increased nutrient input into the upper ocean layers from below. The increasing nutrient availability also contributes to the increase in the simulated PP, even though significant surface nutrient drawdown in summer is simulated. In conjunction with increasing surface absorption of solar radiation and rising surface air temperature, the increasing surface water temperature in the Arctic Ocean peripheral seas further contributes to the increase in PP. As PP has increased, so has the simulated biomass of phytoplankton and zooplankton., We gratefully acknowledge the support of NSF (grants ARC‐0629326, ARC‐0629312, ARC‐0629348, ARC‐0629495, and ARC‐0805789).

Application of biogeochemical models to the study of marine ecosystems is pervasive, yet objective quantification of these models' performance is rare. Here, 12 lower trophic level models of varying complexity are objectively assessed in two distinct regions (equatorial Pacific and Arabian Sea). Each model was run within an identical one-dimensional physical framework. A consistent variational adjoint implementation assimilating chlorophyll-a, nitrate, export, and primary productivity was applied and the same metrics were used to assess model skill. Experiments were performed in which data were assimilated from each site individually and from both sites simultaneously. A cross-validation experiment was also conducted whereby data were assimilated from one site and the resulting optimal parameters were used to generate a simulation for the second site. When a single pelagic regime is considered, the simplest models fit the data as well as those with multiple phytoplankton functional groups. However, those with multiple phytoplankton functional groups produced lower misfits when the models are required to simulate both regimes using identical parameter values. The cross-validation experiments revealed that as long as only a few key biogeochemical parameters were optimized, the models with greater phytoplankton complexity were generally more portable. Furthermore, models with multiple zooplankton compartments did not necessarily outperform models with single zooplankton compartments, even when zooplankton biomass data are assimilated. Finally, even when different models produced similar least squares model-data misfits, they often did so via very different element flow pathways, highlighting the need for more comprehensive data sets that uniquely constrain these pathways.

Three-dimensional ecosystem response to wind forcing on the continental shelf off Oregon is studied using a five-component nitrogen-based ecosystem model coupled to a high-resolution circulation model. We investigate, in particular, the influence of time-dependent winds and alongshore variations in shelf topography for summer 2001 during the time period of the Coastal Ocean Advances in Shelf Transport (COAST) field experiment. Over summer 2001 the average southward, upwelling-favorable wind leads to the development of a southward coastal jet and upwelled cold nutrient-rich water over the shelf. A strong influence of the shelf topography is found in the observed and modeled nutrients and plankton, with significant spatial variability associated with interactions of the shelf flow with Heceta Bank. The model results show that the largest mean chlorophyll-a concentrations are located onshore of the coastal jet, while the largest mean zooplankton concentrations are found farther offshore, typically on the offshore side of the jet, except on Heceta Bank. During intermittent downwelling periods the largest concentrations of mean zooplankton and phytoplankton, however, are both inshore of the jet. The 20 day oscillations in the modeled nutrients and plankton, the time lags between the wind stress and these ecosystem components, and the decorrelation timescales of phytoplankton agree with those obtained from mooring and satellite measurements. A detailed analysis of the balance between biological and physical forcing helps to clarify the temporal and spatial response of the ecosystem.