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With economic globalization and the financialization of agricultural products continuing to advance, the interconnections between different agricultural futures have become closer. We utilize a TVP‐VAR‐DY model combined with the quantile method to measure the risk spillover between 11 agricultural futures in the United States and China from July 9, 2014, to December 31, 2022. We obtain several findings. First, CBOT corn, soybean, and wheat are identified as the primary risk transmitters, with DCE corn and soybean as the main risk receivers. Second, sudden events or increased economic uncertainty can enlarge the overall risk spillovers. Third, there is an aggregation of risk spillovers amongst agricultural futures based on the dynamic directional spillovers. Lastly, the central agricultural futures under the conditional mean are CBOT corn and soybean, while CZCE hard wheat and long‐grained rice are the two risk‐spillover centers in extreme cases, as per the results of the spillover network and minimum spanning tree. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the connectedness and spillovers between decomposed oil shocks and Indian sectoral equities in a time-frequency domain using the most recent Barunik and Krehlik (2018) approach. Our empirical results show that the oil demand shock is the major spillover transmitter across all time horizons followed by the risk shocks; while oil supply shock appears to be a net receiver in all the frequency bands indicating the differential impact of oil shocks. Among the sectors, Basic Materials and Finance receive the highest spillovers from oil shocks in the short-term; while Consumer Discretionary Goods & Services and Industrials join the list in the medium- and long-term. FMCG, Health, Telecom and IT sectors receive the least spillovers in all the bands, making them apt for investments during periods of high volatility. Our empirical results are robust to the application of the alternative TVP-VAR time-frequency parameter framework. The portfolio analysis shows that inclusion of stocks in Oil and sectors like Metal and Telecom significantly reduces the portfolio risk. Dynamic connectedness analysis reveals that the spillovers dramatically increase during times of extreme turmoil, especially during the Global Financial Crisis (2008–2009) and the COVID-19 pandemic. Policy implications of our empirical results are also discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Changing patterns of risk aversion may follow a non-linear counter-cyclical process. However, the evidence so far has not considered developing cryptocurrency markets. Given some unique features of cryptocurrencies, it is interesting to distinguish how these assets differ from traditional products. This paper investigates the time effects of periodicity on risk aversion for a selection of major cryptocurrencies compared to major financial assets. Significant periodic time-varying patterns are identified when analysing risk aversion. Further, bilateral and bidirectional Granger causalities are identified within cryptocurrencies, as well as between cryptocurrencies and traditional financial assets. Bitcoin is identified as a leading information transmitter of the spillover of risk aversion upon other cryptocurrencies, while estimated risk aversion of traditional financial markets plays a dominant role in the spillover processes upon the cryptocurrency cluster. The latter finding presents further evidence of developing cryptocurrency market maturity. The COVID-19 pandemic is found to have significantly influenced the connectedness of risk aversion among cryptocurrency and traditional financial markets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Countries are experiencing a surge in political, economic, and financial integration, consequently shaping international market linkages. Financial crises can rapidly spread between countries, emphasizing the need to monitor and assess stock market connections. This paper investigates the degree of financial market connectedness using daily stock returns from January 1997 to August 2017 for 13 countries, both developed and developing. The connectedness measure of Diebold and Yilmaz (2009-2012) is applied to examine the connectedness of stock market returns and the direction of spillovers for all stock markets. This study also analyzes the dynamic connectedness from the U.S. stock market to all other stock markets. The results indicate that the U.S. stock market is the most influential stock market to the others. The results of the dynamic analysis show that connectedness changes over time, specifically during turmoil periods. Most developed countries are transmitters of return spillover shocks while developing countries are recipients. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper seeks to investigate the connectivity of the US economy through the dynamics of the transmission of volatility in sectoral indices. For this, we use daily asset data and two methodologies. The first creates a spillover index that measures market connectivity and the second partitions this index into different frequency bands that denote periods. We found results that show significant transmissions of volatility among the 64 analyzed assets. Notably, the DJIA, Wilshire 5000, and S&P 500 showed significant volatility and were the main drivers of volatility for the other sectors and indices. Results also indicated that sectors that transferred volatility were influenced by three key factors: periods of economic uncertainty, socioeconomic circumstances resulting from post-crisis events, and the impact of economic and financial news on market sentiment. Additionally, we found that global returns and price changes in market indices sent considerable volatility into commodity assets. Our results are potentially useful for investors, portfolio managers, financial economists, financial advisors, financial market regulators, and policymakers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article examines the relationship between electricity consumption and the stock market in the Turkish economy during the COVID-19 pandemic. A novel high-frequency model is used, incorporating the hourly energy consumption and Borsa Istanbul (BIST) National stock market index variables. To determine the effect of electricity consumption on the stock market index and vice versa, a high-frequency VAR-based spillover approach, time-varying Granger causality, and time-varying Bayesian VAR analysis are employed. The findings reveal a positive and weak relationship between electricity consumption and the stock market but it has a time-varying nature in an emerging market context in the post-COVID-19 period in the Turkish economy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Network public opinion plays a crucial role in the behavior and decision making of various stakeholders, including farmers, middlemen, and consumers. It also affects the price fluctuations of small-scale agricultural products. Understanding the transmission path and spillover effect of network public opinion on the price fluctuations of these products is essential for ensuring their sustainable development and price stability. This paper selects the monthly data of network public opinion and related market prices of small-scale agricultural products from January 2014 to December 2021, constructs a network public opinion value through the sentiment classification results of deep learning models, and uses the trivariate VAR-BEKK-GARCH(1,1) model and spillover index model to study the spillover effect and spillover index of network public opinion on the market prices of small-scale agricultural products (national average price and origin price). The results show that: (1) There is a bidirectional volatility spillover effect between public opinion sentiment and the market prices of small-scale agricultural products. Additionally, this two-way volatility spillover effect is also evident between the average market prices and the origin prices of these commodities. (2) The influence of network public opinion on the market prices of small-scale agricultural products is substantial, with the spillover index being more pronounced for origin prices than for national average prices and reaching its zenith earlier. Consequently, based on these results, recommendations are provided to adapt planting and inventory strategies, enhance vigilance towards price risk transmission amongst small-scale agricultural product markets, and improve the comprehensive information platform encompassing the entire industry chain. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Given the increasing political polarization in the United States, especially on cogent issues of climate change, health policy, immigration, and recently the handling of the Coronavirus pandemic, the current study divulged further on the link between policy divides and partisan conflict. In the context, we employed the Diebold and Yilmaz index model to examine the potential spillover effect among partisan conflict (PC), economic policy uncertainty (EPU), fiscal policy (FP), and monetary policy (MP) over the period from January 1996 to June 2020 for the case of the United States. Importantly, the result posits a total spillover index (interconnectedness) of 30.04% among the examined variables, thus showing that shock transmission exists among these variables. In addition, the EPU transmits the largest share of shock (56.78%) to PC, FP, and MP, thus illustrating that the EPU is the only net giver of potential shock but with a net spillover of (+) 12.325%. Moreover, with the largest spillover index of 84.569%, PC directly contributes the largest shock to the EPU (6.691%), which is followed by a direct 4.608% to fiscal policy and a lower shock of 0.526% to monetary policy. Apart from making a significant contribution to the existing literature on partisan conflict in the United States, this study further highlighted the grey area to pursuing more inclusive democratic discourse and dialogue among the country's social, cultural, and political representations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the diversification benefits of commodity indices during the COVID-19 pandemic by analyzing both static and dynamic risk spillovers for the period from January 2, 1998 to September 16, 2020. Using variance decomposition forecasting, we employed static and dynamic analyses based on the estimation of 50-day moving window spillover indices. Globally, the results show significant spillovers between markets during the COVID-19 pandemic crisis. The results show that stock markets are highly interdependent with other financial markets (in both directions), and that commodity markets (except energy) and the bond market are recipients of shocks emanating from stock markets. The main contribution of this paper is to study the return and volatility spillovers between stock and commodity indices before and during the pandemic. This study of shock transmission mechanisms will enable investors to develop optimal diversification and hedging strategies during the crisis. In this context, we found that commodities and US government bonds could offer diversification benefits to investors. In addition, some of these assets may serve as hedging instruments or safe havens during the COVID-19 crisis.

The present study investigates the presence of asymmetric return spillovers among crude oil futures, gold futures, and ten Chinese stock sector markets. Time-varying asymmetric spillovers between commodities and the 10 sectors are shown by utilizing the spillover index developed by Diebold and Yilmaz (2012, 2014). Our findings indicate that the industrial and discretionary consumer sectors generate and benefit the most from spillovers. Furthermore, it has been established that the basic materials sector exhibits a net positive impact on spillovers. In contrast, oil futures, gold futures, and other sectors demonstrate a net negative impact as recipients of spillovers. Moreover, the negative return spillovers outweigh the positive return spillovers. Our analysis spans from 2000 to 2023 to include various financial crises. The spillover effects of asymmetry are impacted by various factors, including the global financial crisis (GFC), the European sovereign debt crisis (ESDC), the decline in oil prices, and the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic. Including gold and oil in individual equity markets can benefit equity investors. Furthermore, implementing hedging strategies is susceptible to the global financial crisis, economic slowdown, oil price decline, and the recent COVID-19 pandemic. The oil futures exhibit the greatest hedging effectiveness during the COVID-19 spread. The findings indicate that gold exhibits comparable outcomes solely in the presence of positive spillover effects. At the same time, its performance reaches its peak during the recovery phase in the context of negative spillover effects.

This study utilizes the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) framework to investigate the interconnectedness of green bond with various financial markets, aiming to clarify their relationship with global economic uncertainty and their impact on returns. After a comprehensive search of pertinent research papers from January 2016 to September 2023, 79 relevant articles were identified. The analysis delves into the evolution of research on green bonds' interactions with economic policy uncertainty considering the financial markets, analytical methodologies, contributions to the field, and the role of green bonds under both normal and extreme market conditions. The study reveals noteworthy findings: firstly, the interplay between green bonds and financial markets is influenced by macroeconomic factors, such as the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022, which were significant sources of economic policy uncertainty during the study period. Secondly, during times of global economic uncertainties, green Bonds act as net transmitters of spillovers in the short term but shifts to net receivers in the long term, positioning them as strategic hedging assets rather than safe-havens, particularly against spillovers from crude oil and CO2 emission in times of economic uncertainties. Additionally, the review highlights prevalent methodologies employed to assess the relationship between global economic policy uncertainty and green bonds. Some of which include quantile approaches, the Diebold & Yilmaz 2012 spillover index, as well as various models like VAR models, GARCH models, ARDL models. Notably, certain countries like China, the United Kingdom, and Vietnam emerge as key contributors to this research domain. The review not only consolidates existing knowledge but also provides valuable insights for investors and policymakers regarding green bonds in terms of risk management and asset allocation, while also pointing towards potential avenues for future research in this field.

This paper studies patterns of volatilities and their spillovers across six major segments of Indian financial market applying univariate GARCH model and estimating the Diebold and Yilmaz (DY) volatility spillover index. The study found increasing integration of financial market segments over time and that equity, bank index and corporate bond segments are net contributors while money, gsec and forex segments are net receivers of volatility. The study highlights the need for a healthy banking sector and the increasing significance of corporate bond market volatility and suggests segment specific policy responses to tackle financial market volatilities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study, we investigate the spillover behaviours of implied volatilities and test the forecasting power of spillover indices. By using a Diebold and Yilmaz's (2012) framework, we capture a better overall picture of the developments of spillover effects and create a series of spillover indices by quantifying the spillover intensity for each rolling time window such that we are able to investigate the forecasting ability of spillover indices on market returns. There are several findings in this study including (1) the spillover indices of implied volatilities not only enable us to describe the spillover effects but also possess strong forecasting power on market returns, (2) implied volatilities which own emotional-related characteristic create stronger spillover mechanisms than spillover of market returns and (3) by observing the time-varying patterns of spillover indices of implied volatilities, we find that the peaks of spillover indices occur during well-known economic events such as the Lehman Brothers' Bankruptcy and Greek debt restructuring. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper seeks to investigate the connectivity of the US economy through the dynamics of the transmission of volatility in sectoral indices. For this, we use daily asset data and two methodologies. The first creates a spillover index that measures market connectivity and the second partitions this index into different frequency bands that denote periods. We found results that show significant transmissions of volatility among the 64 analyzed assets. Notably, the DJIA, Wilshire 5000, and S&P 500 showed significant volatility and were the main drivers of volatility for the other sectors and indices. Results also indicated that sectors that transferred volatility were influenced by three key factors: periods of economic uncertainty, socioeconomic circumstances resulting from post-crisis events, and the impact of economic and financial news on market sentiment. Additionally, we found that global returns and price changes in market indices sent considerable volatility into commodity assets. Our results are potentially useful for investors, portfolio managers, financial economists, financial advisors, financial market regulators, and policymakers.

This paper examines pairwise intercity price–volume dynamics in China using novel daily transaction price and volume dataset from 32 Chinese cities. Despite geographical disparity and time variations, the volume–volume dynamic relationship plays a noticeably more significant role than price–price or price–volume relationships, suggesting that volume may be more informative than prices in China's pairwise intercity housing market spillovers. We further propose a new spillover/connectedness measure to summarize both price and volume information and better measure such spillovers. We find that the new measure can be significantly explained by economic fundamentals, which attests to the soundness of the basic finding. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Models of crisis prediction continue to gain traction with the increased frequency of global crisis such as the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. Moreover, the connectedness of financial markets appears to be of central importance in determining how shocks spill through asset market linkages. The study thus applies the time-frequency connectedness measures of Diebold & Yilmaz (2012) and Baruník & Křehlík (2018) to examine return and volatility connectedness dynamics in East African Community (EAC) member states. The study found a strong interdependence among the considered EAC markets as indicated by the high values of total return and volatility spillover indices. This high degree of interdependence is reflected in both static time and frequency domain return and volatility connectedness, especially at the longer term frequency bands, an indication that return and volatility shocks are persistent. This result lends further support to existing evidence on the suitability of the EAC regional economic integration, including the possible eventual establishment of a monetary union. In addition, the dynamic spillover analysis indicates that connectedness among these EAC markets is highly time-varying and appears to be amplified during global crisis events such as the European debt crisis, Kenyan elections, commodity price shocks and the COVID-19 pandemic. However, the results suggest that relative to periods of domestic turbulence, financial market connectedness in the EAC is more likely to get amplified during periods of external global shocks. The study also contributes to emergent literature on connectedness among financial markets during the COVID-19 pandemic. Importantly, the study finds that the COVID-19 pandemic had a significant effect on all the considered EAC markets although the magnitude and direction of impact varies across markets and countries. In addition, the study finds that Brent Crude oil prices are a significant source of return and volatility spillovers to EAC markets especially during crisis periods.

The study analyzes volatility connectedness of energy, agricultural raw materials and food markets for both time and frequency domains (January 1960 to August 2020). The DY and BK approaches are adopted at both commodity-group and sub-group levels. Time domain estimates indicate that the energy market produced more risk spillover in the food market than raw material market. Rubber contributes the largest to spillover in the crude oil and sugar markets. Estimates from frequency domain reveal that raw material and food markets are net transmitter and net recipient of volatility spillover, respectively, at the lowest and highest frequency domains. Crude oil is the largest source of spillover in the tobacco, meat and natural gas markets in the high-frequency band. Finally, the meat and crude oil markets are the largest receiver of shock spillover from all other markets over the low- and high-frequency bands, respectively. Policy implications are derived from the findings.

This study examines the volatility changes of 20 cryptocurrencies from January 2018 to May 2021 using sparse VHAR-MGARCH model. Our proposed model incorporates the high-dimensionality and time-varying conditional heterogeneity of cryptocurrency markets. We examined the time-varying spillover index, dynamic correlation structure, and connectivity between cryptocurrencies. Our empirical analysis clearly shows that there was a volatility shift on 13 March 2020, due to a market crash caused by COVID-19. This naturally divides the data into three periods: pre-crisis, during the crisis, and post-crisis regimes. The pre-crisis regime exhibited long-term cyclic fluctuations in the spillover index. However, after the market crash, the spillover index remained at a very high level with almost no interconnections between cryptocurrencies. The post-crisis regime showed quite a few irregular and sharp spikes in the spillover index, together with record-breaking prices and volumes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Network public opinion plays a crucial role in the behavior and decision making of various stakeholders, including farmers, middlemen, and consumers. It also affects the price fluctuations of small-scale agricultural products. Understanding the transmission path and spillover effect of network public opinion on the price fluctuations of these products is essential for ensuring their sustainable development and price stability. This paper selects the monthly data of network public opinion and related market prices of small-scale agricultural products from January 2014 to December 2021, constructs a network public opinion value through the sentiment classification results of deep learning models, and uses the trivariate VAR-BEKK-GARCH(1,1) model and spillover index model to study the spillover effect and spillover index of network public opinion on the market prices of small-scale agricultural products (national average price and origin price). The results show that: (1) There is a bidirectional volatility spillover effect between public opinion sentiment and the market prices of small-scale agricultural products. Additionally, this two-way volatility spillover effect is also evident between the average market prices and the origin prices of these commodities. (2) The influence of network public opinion on the market prices of small-scale agricultural products is substantial, with the spillover index being more pronounced for origin prices than for national average prices and reaching its zenith earlier. Consequently, based on these results, recommendations are provided to adapt planting and inventory strategies, enhance vigilance towards price risk transmission amongst small-scale agricultural product markets, and improve the comprehensive information platform encompassing the entire industry chain.

Digitalization and sustainable development represent two highly topical subjects, each of them being primarily debated in the literature. Although it is evident that digitalization brings new opportunities and challenges for the management of organizations and for meeting their sustainable strategies, there are relatively few studies analyzing the relationship between the two. Therefore, the objective of the present study is to analyze the relationship between digitalization and sustainable development in the European Union (EU) countries, between 2019 and 2021, before and during the COVID-19 pandemic. On this matter, the link between Digital Economy and Society Index (DESI), on one side, and Sustainable Development Goal Index (SDG Index) and Spillover Index (SS Index), on the other side, has been analyzed using correlations. While DESI refers to the monitoring of digital advancement of the EU member states, SDG Index and SS Index are based on many indicators and give a multidimensional perspective regarding sustainable development. Results show a positive and significant relationship between DESI and SDG Index, and the effect gradually decreases during the analyzed period. Regarding the relationship between DESI and SS Index, the correlation was negative, but significant in 2020 and 2019 only. At the level of each geographical region, the relationship between DESI and SDG Index was positive, with a larger effect in the Northern and Western region and the Southern region compared to the Central and Eastern region, but this effect was not statistically significant. In addition, the relationship between DESI and SS Index was negative and significant at the level of the Central and Eastern region and the Southern region but positive and not statistically significant at the level of the Northern and Western region. In addition to previous papers on this field, this study adds the analysis between digitalization and the Spillover Index. In addition, while previous studies seek to identify the relationship between digitalization and sustainability at a single country level or region, this study presents the correlation analysis at the EU level and compares the results for each EU region. Following the results, our study gives arguments for reshaping the concept of sustainable development given that digitalization is becoming an essential business component. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The CEE stock markets are more and more integrated in the European financial markets. The growth of the integration of financial markets favours the volatility and return spillover between them. The current study analyses the volatility spillover among the stock markets in the countries from Central and East Europe (CEE) and Germany and France with the aim to identify the possibilities of reduction of a portfolio risk. A special attention is granted to the analysis during the pandemic caused by COVID-19. The time-varying parameter vector autoregressive (TVP-VAR) model on which is based the methodology proposed by Antonakakis and Gabauer (2017) is used to estimate the evolution in time of volatility spillover. The empirical results obtained for the period January 2001 – September 2021 highlight the increase in volatility spillover between the countries analysed when the pandemic caused by COVID-19 was confirmed. The lack of volatility integration of the markets analysed enables the making of arbitrages in order to reduce the risk of a portfolio. The results obtained are important in the management of financial asset portfolios. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Models of crisis prediction continue to gain traction with the increased frequency of global crisis such as the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. Moreover, the connectedness of financial markets appears to be of central importance in determining how shocks spill through asset market linkages. The study thus applies the time-frequency connectedness measures of Diebold & Yilmaz (2012) and Baruník & Křehlík (2018) to examine return and volatility connectedness dynamics in East African Community (EAC) member states. The study found a strong interdependence among the considered EAC markets as indicated by the high values of total return and volatility spillover indices. This high degree of interdependence is reflected in both static time and frequency domain return and volatility connectedness, especially at the longer term frequency bands, an indication that return and volatility shocks are persistent. This result lends further support to existing evidence on the suitability of the EAC regional economic integration, including the possible eventual establishment of a monetary union. In addition, the dynamic spillover analysis indicates that connectedness among these EAC markets is highly time-varying and appears to be amplified during global crisis events such as the European debt crisis, Kenyan elections, commodity price shocks and the COVID-19 pandemic. However, the results suggest that relative to periods of domestic turbulence, financial market connectedness in the EAC is more likely to get amplified during periods of external global shocks. The study also contributes to emergent literature on connectedness among financial markets during the COVID-19 pandemic. Importantly, the study finds that the COVID-19 pandemic had a significant effect on all the considered EAC markets although the magnitude and direction of impact varies across markets and countries. In addition, the study finds that Brent Crude oil prices are a significant source of return and volatility spillovers to EAC markets especially during crisis periods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we investigate the uncertainty spillovers among China's four important economic policies (i.e., fiscal, monetary, trade and exchange rate policy) during the period 2000–2020, based on the spillover framework of Diebold and Yilmaz, The Economic Journal, 2009, 119, 158–171 and Diebold and Yilmaz, International Journal of Forecasting, 2012, 28, 57–66. Considering the heterogeneity of shocks in frequency domain, we also use the frequency methodology of Baruník and Křehlík, Journal of Financial Econometrics, 2018, 16, 271–296. Our results are summarized as follows: (a) the uncertainty spillover between China's different economic policies is high (46.11%) and the low‐frequency spillover (24.90%) is higher than the high‐frequency spillover (19.65%); (b) fiscal policy acts as the mainly uncertainty transmitter on high‐frequency, while monetary policy on low‐frequency; (c) the uncertainty spillover increased in the global financial crisis (2007–2009) and the European debt crisis (2010–2011) and (d) we found that the increase in the former is due to long‐term shocks, while the latter is due to short‐term shocks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The CEE stock markets are more and more integrated in the European financial markets. The growth of the integration of financial markets favours the volatility and return spillover between them. The current study analyses the volatility spillover among the stock markets in the countries from Central and East Europe (CEE) and Germany and France with the aim to identify the possibilities of reduction of a portfolio risk. A special attention is granted to the analysis during the pandemic caused by COVID-19. The time-varying parameter vector autoregressive (TVP-VAR) model on which is based the methodology proposed by Antonakakis and Gabauer (2017) is used to estimate the evolution in time of volatility spillover. The empirical results obtained for the period January 2001 – September 2021 highlight the increase in volatility spillover between the countries analysed when the pandemic caused by COVID-19 was confirmed. The lack of volatility integration of the markets analysed enables the making of arbitrages in order to reduce the risk of a portfolio. The results obtained are important in the management of financial asset portfolios.

We examine the spillovers and resource allocation characteristics of a portfolio of precious metal commodities and global/regional equity markets using a directional spillover index and portfolio optimization methods. Spillover index results show that the largest spillovers among precious metals occur between gold and silver and between zinc and lead. The largest spillovers of the world, Americas, Europe and Asia Pacific equity indices are on palladium and copper. Copper and zinc most largely spillover on the world and Americas equity indices. Copper and lead most largely spillover on the Europe equity index, while copper and silver most largely spillover on the Asia Pacific equity index. Portfolio optimization results indicate that nickel and lead add the most risk to total portfolio risk, whereas gold, platinum and aluminium add the least risk to the portfolio of commodities. Gold and aluminium are the precious metals most desirable for investment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract This study examines the portfolio diversification benefits of alternative currency trading in Bitcoin and foreign exchange markets. The following methods are applied for the analysis: the spillover index method of Diebold and Yilmaz (Int J Forecast 28(1): 57–66, 2012. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2011.02.006 ), the spillover asymmetry measures of Barunik et al. (J Int Money Finance 77: 39–56, 2017. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jimonfin.2017.06.003 ), and the frequency connectedness method of Barunik and Křehlík (J Financ Econom 16(2): 271–296, 2018. https://doi.org/10.1093/jjfinec/nby001 ). The findings identify the presence of low-level integration and asymmetric volatility spillover as well as a dominant role of short horizon spillover among Bitcoin markets and foreign exchange pairs for six major trading currencies (US dollar, euro, Japanese yen, British pound sterling, Australian dollar, and Canadian dollar). Bitcoin is found to provide significant portfolio diversification benefits for alternative currency foreign exchange portfolios. Alternative currency Bitcoin trading in euro is found to provide the most significant portfolio diversification benefits for foreign exchange portfolios consisting of major trading currencies. The findings of the study regarding spillover dynamics and portfolio diversification capabilities of the Bitcoin market for foreign exchange markets of major trading currencies have significant implications for portfolio diversification and risk minimization.

Economic policy uncertainty generally tends to induce a pessimistic view of future market behaviour. Furthermore, instabilities in global oil prices have serious implications for the economies of oil exporters and importers, due to their over-dependence on crude oil for revenue and production activities, respectively, and thereby on stock market indices. Against limited empirical evidence, this study examines the spillover effects from global economic policy uncertainty (GEPU) and oil price volatility to the volatility of the stock market indices of oil exporters and importers in both developed and emerging economies. The results show that the spillover effect from GEPU to oil exporters is relatively smaller than to oil importers, for both developed and emerging countries. Conversely, the volatility spillovers from oil prices to oil exporters are relatively larger than to oil importers, for both developed and emerging countries. Specifically, the volatility spillovers from oil prices to oil exporters (importers) in emerging countries are relatively stronger compared to oil exporters (importers) in developed countries. The findings indicate that the volatility of the stock markets of emerging countries is more sensitive to global factors such as GEPU and oil price volatility, and that oil exporters and importers in emerging economies are more sensitive to oil price volatility than oil exporters and importers in developed economies, which is in line with previous studies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study employs the GARCH-Copula-CoVaR and spillover index models to investigate the dependence and risk spillover effects among China's financial markets before and after the "811" exchange rate reform. The findings show that the gold market is the largest risk spillover recipient to the exchange market and has the strongest dependence with the exchange market. The exchange market is greatly affected by the spillover effects of other financial markets, and the monetary market is the main source of these risk spillovers effects. The external spillover effects of the exchange market were significantly enhanced after the reform, but its influences on other financial markets are still weak. The exchange rate reform caused the RMB exchange rate to depreciate sharply and fluctuate violently within a period of time, but it did not have a significant impact on the spillover effect trends of the exchange market in the long term. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Globalisation and financial development have significantly integrated stock markets worldwide. A higher degree of interrelatedness and integration provides firms with increased access to global capital markets and a reduced cost of equity. This study examines the evolution of the return and volatility spillover effects between the world stock index, and the Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries' (Croatia, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, and Romania) stock markets using both the multivariate dynamic equicorrelation -- generalised autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (DECO-GARCH) model and the spillover index. The results indicate that the average return equicorrelation across the CEE and world stock indices is positive. This impairs the benefits of CEE and world portfolio diversification. In addition, bidirectional return and volatility between the world stock index's and CEE stock markets' returns exist in the aftermath of the recent European debt crisis. Importantly, the net volatility spillover bursts in either a negative or positive direction, and its sign changes over the study period. Finally, the author employ Clark--West's (2007) test of equal mean squared prediction error, and show that the world stock index can help predict the future returns and volatility of the CEE stock markets. These findings have significant implications for portfolio investors and policymakers interested in the CEE and world stock markets in predicting portfolio market risk exposures and determining the persistence of diversification benefits in these markets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We examine the spillovers, portfolio allocation, and diversification potential of bank equity portfolios from developed and emerging countries in Europe (henceforth, developed and emerging Europe) using a directional spillover index and nonlinear portfolio optimisation methods. Empirical results indicate that in developed Europe the largest spillover receivers and transmitters are the banks from France and Spain, whereas in emerging Europe are those from Greece and Poland. Cross‐country spillover transmission and reception is larger across banks from developed Europe than across banks from emerging Europe. Banks from emerging Europe offer greater diversification potential and have a lower risk for financial resource allocation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study, we employ both the spillover index of Diebold and Yilmaz [1], and the wavelet coherence approaches to investigate the impacts of return spillovers and dynamic timefrequency linkages between crude oil prices and five developed stock markets in Europe (the United Kingdom, Spain, Italy, German, and France) in the pre and during Covid-19 outbreak periods. The results highlight that IBEX and CAC series are net recipients of risks, while the other assets are a net transmitter of shocks in the pre-Covid-19 period. In contrast to the results for the pre-Covid-19 period, LSE, CAC, and IBEX are the net recipients of return spillovers, reaching a maximum level of about 23% during the Covid-19 outbreak. Specifically, in comparison with the pre-Covid-19 period, the return transmission is more apparent during the Covid-19 crisis. More importantly, there exist significant dependent patterns about the information spillovers, and time-frequency linkages between crude oil and five major stock markets might provide urgent prominent implications for portfolio managers, investors, and government agencies.

The aim of this study is to assess whether significant spillovers exist among house price convergence clubs in the Polish housing market. This paper is a continuation of my previous research on house price convergence in Poland. In order to achieve the defined goal, VAR modelling was used. Based on the results of the VAR model, impulse response functions (IRFs) and the Spillover Index were calculated. The obtained results indicate that spillovers in the Polish housing market are strong. The relationships are observed both inside the primary and secondary markets and between them. In particular, a very powerful influence is exerted from a club of cities from the primary market, consisting of Cracow, Warsaw, Gdańsk, Poznań, Rzeszów and Wrocław, on the remaining identified house price convergence clubs.

In light of COVID-19 and the extent of global economic interdependence, it is essential to understand risk spillover effects between China's stock market and international commodity market in order to optimize risk control and management and provide early warning. The aim of this research is to examine the spillover mechanisms between the Chinese stock market and the global commodity market using data from eleven specific industries. The results show that the Risk Spillover index of industrial and optional consumer industries in China's stock market is relatively high. This industry is more vulnerable to fluctuations in the international commodity market and is the main risk spillover industry; The energy and financial industries have great risk spillover effects on the international commodity market. The volatility spillovers between the Chinese stock market and the international commodity market are asymmetric: the Chinese stock market is mainly affected by the risk spillovers from gold and silver, while the international commodity market is mainly affected by the risk spillovers from the real estate, energy, and financial sectors. The results of this analysis can be used in future works to develop a risk hedging model to examine how bulk commodities differ in terms of portfolio weight, hedging ratio, and hedging efficiency.

This paper examines the risk spillover mechanism between China's stock market and international commodity markets using selected industry data series on soybean copper, gold, silver, sugar, and crude oil. Based on the results of this analysis, a DCC-GARCH model is used to describe the dynamic correlation, build a risk hedging model, calculate the risk hedging efficiency, and evaluate the risk hedging effect. According to the findings, the industrial and optional consumer industries are the primary risk receiving markets, while the energy and finance industries are the primary risk export markets. The stock market crash in 2015 and the COVID-19 epidemic in 2020 made the risk spillover between China’s stock market and international commodity markets surge. On average, the commodity copper is the most efficient hedge, followed by silver, while commodities such as sugar, gold and soybeans are less effective, and copper will continue to be a good hedge for the Chinese stock market in the coming months.

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This paper examines dynamic spillovers and connectedness between global covid-19 occurrences and the Global FX market. We specifically analyse the spillovers using six most traded currency pairs in the world utilizing daily data for the period December 31, 2019 to April 10, 2020. The paper employs the Diebold and Yilmaz (DY hereafter) (2009, 2012) approach to compute the spillover indexes. We also consider the rolling window analyses to capture the secular and cyclical movement in the financial markets over the period of consideration. Our findings indicate high degree of interdependence between the global covid-19 occurrences and returns volatility of the majorly traded currency pairs. Interestingly, both the returns and volatility spillover indexes exhibit both trend and bursts over the period of pandemic. Our results are robust to the different VAR lag structure. Policymakers are advised to monitor the effects of global COVID-19 announcement and assess the net effect of financial market volatility on the behaviour of the global FX markets in order address new and enhanced risks caused by the upsurge of the COVID-19 pandemic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Gangnam is a prime district in Korea known for its expensive real estate market due to convenient transportation, shopping and business centers, and elite schools and academies in the area. This paper examines spillovers and network connectedness in the Korean regional markets using the spillover index of Diebold and Yilmaz (J Econom 182:119–134, 2014). We use the quantile regression approach to investigate the macroeconomic factors driving the total spillover effects under low, normal, and high spillovers. We find that the 1997–1998 Asian currency crisis intensified regional spillovers in the Korean housing market. Moreover, Gangnam is the largest transmitter of spillovers across the regional housing markets in Korea. Our visual network illustrates that Gangnam is a hub of connectedness, implying that it is the most influential shock transmitter among the regional housing markets. Our study has an implication for investors: macroeconomic factors affect spillovers across regional housing sales and rental markets under different degrees of spillover. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In recent years, researchers have increasingly studied the association between the stock market and economic policy uncertainty (EPU). To have more profound knowledge, this paper investigates the evolution of the mean spillover effects between EPU and BRICS stock markets by employing both the multivariate DECO-GARCH model proposed by Engle and Kelly (J Bus Econ Stat 30(2):212–228, 2012) and the spillover index of Diebold and Yilmaz (Int J Forecast 26(1):57–66, 2012). The results uncover that the average return equicorrelation between the BRICS stock indices and EPU is positive. In addition, there is a bidirectional return spillover between EPU and BRICS stock returns in the aftermath of the recent European debt crises and the global financial crisis. Overall, our results reveal the existence of the short term, the pass-through impact of EPU via stock price fluctuation in BRICS countries. These findings might provide significant implications for portfolio managers, investors, and government agencies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The main goal of this study is to examine how international and regional shocks are transmitted to African equity markets using a network methodology introduced and developed by Diebold and Yilmaz (Econ J 119:158–171, 2009; Int J Forecast 23:57–66, 2012; J Econom 182:119–134, 2014) with daily data ranging from January 03, 2007 till September 19, 2019. The main finding is that international and regional market shocks have heterogeneous and time-varying effects on African equity markets, the magnitude of which is explained by the degree of financial exposure and share to the world trade. Bidirectional spillovers reveal that African markets are net receivers for both return and volatility spillovers. Moreover, volatility shocks on these markets spread more vigorously than return shocks to Africa. Episodes of high spillovers emerged during the 2008 global financial and the 2012 European debt crisis. Peaks also appear when structural economic reforms or measures increasing market efficiency intervene on African markets. New to previous works on financial market spillover, we assess spillover channels in Africa employing linear panel regressions. Empirical estimates show that trade and financial exposure do not significantly explain return and volatility spillovers in African equity market. Global factors such as oil and metal prices are the main channels through which foreign shocks spread to African stock markets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper focuses on economic policy uncertainty spillovers across Europe, before and after the outburst of the Eurozone crisis, using data for seven Eurozone countries for the period 2003–2019. At first, we analyze the spillovers of uncertainty in Europe via the estimation of the Diebold‐Yilmaz spillover index. The results indicate that uncertainty connectedness was 50.5% before the crisis, while it dropped to 30.6% afterwards indicating a sharp drop in uncertainty spillovers across the seven Eurozone countries. We also find that the importance of domestic causes in national uncertainty has increased during the crisis at the expense of imported factors. Dynamic net spillovers reveal that core Eurozone countries are uncertainty exporters before the crisis, while periphery countries transmit uncertainty to other countries during the crisis. An examination of the country which suffered the most during the crisis, using impulse response analysis, reveals that the Greek macroeconomic indicators (stock market, GDP, unemployment, and the Economic Sentiment Index) were affected more by domestic, rather than European uncertainty. The highest responses are indicated during the crisis. Overall, there is positive interdependence between Greek and European uncertainty, which diminishes during the crisis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the correlation and connectedness across global base metal futures markets in the periods before and during the COVID-19 pandemic. We find that the impacts of the pandemic shock on the dynamic correlations between global commodity exchanges vary across futures markets, with significant structural breaks being detected in the underlying dynamic correlations at different stages of the pandemic. We document that stronger price signals were generated in the aggregate markets due to the pandemic shock, and the roles of copper and zinc futures as the pricing center in the global base metal markets increased during the pandemic period. Moreover, our findings show that the leading position of the London Metal Exchange in the global base metal futures pricing declined, while the pricing authority of the Shanghai Futures Exchange improved significantly during the pandemic time. Leveraging post-pandemic data, we identify interdependence structures amid some crucial geopolitical conflicts. [Display omitted] • The effects of the pandemic shock on the correlations and connectedness differ across global base metal futures markets. • The pandemic shifted the relationships and interdependencies among the global base metal futures markets. • The pricing dynamics became more pronounced during the pandemic period. • LME experienced a decline in its leading position in global base metal futures pricing during the pandemic. • The pricing authority of SHFE significantly improved during the pandemic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper systematically evaluates the influence of international crude oil risk on Chinese macro-financial risks, by quantifying risk spillover effects from international crude oil market to China’s three major markets (stock, foreign exchange and commodity markets). Specifically, this paper initially calculates the risks of international crude oil market and China’s three major markets by adopting a conditional autoregressive value at risk (CAViaR) model, then the spillover index is used to capture the risk spillovers from international crude oil market to China’s major markets. The empirical results indicate that there exists significant heterogeneous risk spillover effects transmitted from international crude oil market to China’s three major markets. To be more specific, the risk derived from international crude oil market is always a dominant driving force of risk in China’s commodity market. However, the shocks of global oil risk do not affect much of the risks of China’s stock and foreign exchange markets in general. In addition, our results further report that international oil risk has considerable effects on China’s macro-financial risks during several specific periods, which can be attributed to several major events. Specifically, the risk spillovers originated from international crude oil market remarkably contribute to the risk of China’s commodity market during the period of global financial crisis. International crude oil risk makes great contribution to the risks of Chinese stock and foreign exchange markets, when several global notable events occur as well as major financial reforms in China are implemented. The empirical results have significant implications for policy-makers and market participants.

This paper analyses the behaviour of the existing correlations between Central and Eastern Europe's markets, namely Romania, Czechia, Hungary, Poland, Slovenia, Slovakia and Bulgaria and the developed ones in Germany, France and United Kingdom. The study brings a new perspective on the subject by capturing two major stress periods - the Global Financial Crisis and the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. By estimating a BEKK model, as well as Spearman's rank correlation coe¢ cient and the Diebold and Yilmaz Spillover Index, the study finds strong similarities between the analysed markets, with a general decreasing trend of the correlations' level, indicating increasing benefits of diversi.cation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study examines the portfolio diversification benefits of alternative currency trading in Bitcoin and foreign exchange markets. The following methods are applied for the analysis: the spillover index method of Diebold and Yilmaz (Int J Forecast 28(1): 57–66, 2012. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2011.02.006), the spillover asymmetry measures of Barunik et al. (J Int Money Finance 77: 39–56, 2017. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jimonfin.2017.06.003), and the frequency connectedness method of Barunik and Křehlík (J Financ Econom 16(2): 271–296, 2018. https://doi.org/10.1093/jjfinec/nby001). The findings identify the presence of low-level integration and asymmetric volatility spillover as well as a dominant role of short horizon spillover among Bitcoin markets and foreign exchange pairs for six major trading currencies (US dollar, euro, Japanese yen, British pound sterling, Australian dollar, and Canadian dollar). Bitcoin is found to provide significant portfolio diversification benefits for alternative currency foreign exchange portfolios. Alternative currency Bitcoin trading in euro is found to provide the most significant portfolio diversification benefits for foreign exchange portfolios consisting of major trading currencies. The findings of the study regarding spillover dynamics and portfolio diversification capabilities of the Bitcoin market for foreign exchange markets of major trading currencies have significant implications for portfolio diversification and risk minimization. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We investigate the portfolio allocation and risk contribution characteristics of agricultural commodities, and the volatility spillovers between agricultural commodities and global and regional equity markets. We draw our results by applying a directional spillover index and a nonlinear portfolio optimization method. We find that the largest transmission and reception of spillovers occur among wheat, corn and soybeans, and between sugar cane and sugar beets. All global and regional stock market indices considered most largely spillover on cotton and cocoa. The global and Americas stock market indices are most largely spillovered by corn and soybeans. Also, while the European stock market index is most largely spillovered by cotton, the Asia Pacific stock market index is most largely spillovered by wheat and coffee. The portfolio optimization shows that sugar cane, followed by wheat and corn, are the largest risk contributors to total portfolio risk, whereas, cocoa, followed by lumber and cotton, are the lowest risk contributors to total portfolio risk. Cocoa and lumber are the most desirable for investment. Implications of the results are discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study, we investigate the relationship between stocks cycles and business cycles in Iran, using the spillover index approach of Diebold and Yilmaz (2012, 59). The dynamic interaction between financial cycles and business cycles is used by rolling window estimation and spillover plots. We use data of GDP cycles as business cycle and also data of total stock price index, the stock price index in industry and the stock price index in finance based on quarterly data during 1998Q3-2018Q1. We have investigated the relationship between business cycle and stocks cycles along with exchange rate, oil incomes and liquidity. The results show that the total spillovers index increases in during periods of economic recessions. Also, the business cycle, oil cycle and exchange rate cycle are more impressionable market and the total stock, industry stock, finance cycle and liquidity cycle are more influential market than other markets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the diversification benefits of commodity indices during the COVID-19 pandemic by analyzing both static and dynamic risk spillovers for the period from January 2, 1998 to September 16, 2020. Using variance decomposition forecasting, we employed static and dynamic analyses based on the estimation of 50-day moving window spillover indices. Globally, the results show significant spillovers between markets during the COVID-19 pandemic crisis. The results show that stock markets are highly interdependent with other financial markets (in both directions), and that commodity markets (except energy) and the bond market are recipients of shocks emanating from stock markets. The main contribution of this paper is to study the return and volatility spillovers between stock and commodity indices before and during the pandemic. This study of shock transmission mechanisms will enable investors to develop optimal diversification and hedging strategies during the crisis. In this context, we found that commodities and US government bonds could offer diversification benefits to investors. In addition, some of these assets may serve as hedging instruments or safe havens during the COVID-19 crisis., Competing Interests: The authors declare that they have no conflict of interest., (© 2024 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.)