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BACKGROUND: Treatment switching is a common challenge and opportunity in real-world clinical practice. Increasing diversity in disease-modifying treatments (DMTs) has generated interest in the identification of reliable and robust predictors of treatment switching across different countries, DMTs, and time periods. OBJECTIVE: The objective of this retrospective, observational study was to identify independent predictors of treatment switching in a population of relapsing-remitting MS (RRMS) patients in the Big Multiple Sclerosis Data Network of national clinical registries, including the Italian MS registry, the OFSEP of France, the Danish MS registry, the Swedish national MS registry, and the international MSBase Registry. METHODS: In this cohort study, we merged information on 269,822 treatment episodes in 110,326 patients from 1997 to 2018 from five clinical registries. Patients were included in the final pooled analysis set if they had initiated at least one DMT during the relapsing-remitting MS (RRMS) stage. Patients not diagnosed with RRMS or RRMS patients not initiating DMT therapy during the RRMS phase were excluded from the analysis. The primary study outcome was treatment switching. A multilevel mixed-effects shared frailty time-to-event model was used to identify independent predictors of treatment switching. The contributing MS registry was included in the pooled analysis as a random effect. RESULTS: Every one-point increase in the Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) score at treatment start was associated with 1.08 times the rate of subsequent switching, adjusting for age, sex, and calendar year (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 1.08; 95% CI 1.07-1.08). Women were associated with 1.11 times the rate of switching relative to men (95% CI 1.08-1.14), whilst older age was also associated with an increased rate of treatment switching. DMTs started between 2007 and 2012 were associated with 2.48 times the rate of switching relative to DMTs that began between 1

INTRODUCTION: People with advanced non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) treated with immunotherapies (IT) or targeted therapies (TT) may have improved outcomes in a subset of people who respond, raising unique psychological concerns requiring specific attention. These include the need for people with prolonged survival to reframe their life plans and tolerate uncertainty related to treatment duration and prognosis. A brief intervention for people with advanced cancer, Managing Cancer and Living Meaningfully (CALM), could help people treated with IT or TT address these concerns. However, CALM has not been specifically evaluated in this population. This study aims to evaluate the acceptability and feasibility of CALM in people with advanced NSCLC treated with IT or TT and obtain preliminary evidence regarding its effectiveness in this population. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: Twenty people with advanced NSCLC treated with IT or TT will be recruited from Peter MacCallum Cancer Centre, Melbourne, Australia. Participants will complete three to six sessions of CALM delivered over 3-6 months. A prospective, single-arm, mixed-methods pilot study will be conducted. Participants will complete outcome measures at baseline, post-intervention, 3 months and 6 months, including Patient Health Questionnaire, Death and Dying Distress Scale, Functional Assessment of Cancer Therapy General and Clinician Evaluation Questionnaire. The acceptability of CALM will be assessed using patient experiences surveys and qualitative interviews. Feasibility will be assessed by analysis of recruitment rates, treatment adherence and intervention delivery time. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Ethics approval has been granted by the Peter MacCallum Cancer Centre Human Research Ethics Committee (HREC/82047/PMCC). Participants with cancer will complete a signed consent form prior to participation, and carers and therapists will complete verbal consent. Results will be made available to funders, broader clinicians and re

BACKGROUND: The use of artificial intelligence (AI) in decision-making around knee replacement surgery is increasing, and this technology holds promise to improve the prediction of patient outcomes. Ambiguity surrounds the definition of AI, and there are mixed views on its application in clinical settings. OBJECTIVE: In this study, we aimed to explore the understanding and attitudes of patients who underwent knee replacement surgery regarding AI in the context of risk prediction for shared clinical decision-making. METHODS: This qualitative study involved patients who underwent knee replacement surgery at a tertiary referral center for joint replacement surgery. The participants were selected based on their age and sex. Semistructured interviews explored the participants' understanding of AI and their opinions on its use in shared clinical decision-making. Data collection and reflexive thematic analyses were conducted concurrently. Recruitment continued until thematic saturation was achieved. RESULTS: Thematic saturation was achieved with 19 interviews and confirmed with 1 additional interview, resulting in 20 participants being interviewed (female participants: n=11, 55%; male participants: n=9, 45%; median age: 66 years). A total of 11 (55%) participants had a substantial postoperative complication. Three themes captured the participants' understanding of AI and their perceptions of its use in shared clinical decision-making. The theme Expectations captured the participants' views of themselves as individuals with the right to self-determination as they sought therapeutic solutions tailored to their circumstances, needs, and desires, including whether to use AI at all. The theme Empowerment highlighted the potential of AI to enable patients to develop realistic expectations and equip them with personalized risk information to discuss in shared decision-making conversations with the surgeon. The theme Partnership captured the importance of symbiosis between AI and

WHAT IS THIS SUMMARY ABOUT?: Patient registries contain anonymous data from people who share the same medical condition. The MSBase registry contains information from over 80,000 people living with multiple sclerosis (MS) across 41 countries. Using information from the MSBase registry, the GLIMPSE (Generating Learnings In MultiPle SclErosis) study looked at real-life outcomes in 3475 people living with MS who were treated with cladribine tablets (Mavenclad®) compared with other oral treatments. WHAT WERE THE RESULTS?: Results showed that people treated with cladribine tablets stayed on treatment for longer than other treatments given by mouth. They also had fewer relapses (also called flare ups of symptoms) than people who received a different oral treatment for their MS. WHAT DO THE RESULTS MEAN?: The results provide evidence that, compared with other oral treatments for MS, cladribine tablets are an effective medicine for people living with MS.

BACKGROUND: The global COVID-19 pandemic disproportionately affected certain populations and its management differed between countries. This national study describes characteristics and outcomes of COVID-19 in patients with cancer in Australia. METHODS: We performed a multicentre cohort study of patients with cancer and COVID-19 from March 2020 to April 2022. Data were analysed to determine varying characteristics between cancer types and changes in outcomes over time. Multivariable analysis was performed to determine risk factors associated with oxygen requirement. FINDINGS: 620 patients with cancer from 15 hospitals had confirmed COVID-19. There were 314/620 (50.6%) male patients, median age 63.5 years (IQR 50-72) and majority had solid organ tumours (392/620, 63.2%). The rate of COVID-19 vaccination (≥1 dose) was 73.4% (455/620). Time from symptom onset to diagnosis was median 1 day (IQR 0-3), patients with haematological malignancy had a longer duration of test positivity. Over the study period, there was a significant decline in COVID-19 severity. Risk factors associated with oxygen requirement included male sex (OR 2.34, 95% CI 1.30-4.20, p = 0.004), age (OR 1.03, 95% CI 1.01-1.06, p = 0.005); not receiving early outpatient therapy (OR 2.78, 95% CI 1.41-5.50, p = 0.003). Diagnosis during the omicron wave was associated with lower odds of oxygen requirement (OR 0.24, 95% CI 0.13-0.43, p < 0.0001). INTERPRETATION: Outcomes from COVID-19 in patients with cancer in Australia over the pandemic have improved, potentially related to changing viral strain and outpatient therapies. FUNDING: This study was supported by research funding from MSD.

BACKGROUND: The addition of vancomycin to beta-lactam prophylaxis in arthroplasty may reduce surgical-site infections; however, the efficacy and safety are unclear. METHODS: In this multicenter, double-blind, superiority, placebo-controlled trial, we randomly assigned adult patients without known methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) colonization who were undergoing arthroplasty to receive 1.5 g of vancomycin or normal saline placebo, in addition to cefazolin prophylaxis. The primary outcome was surgical-site infection within 90 days after surgery. RESULTS: A total of 4239 patients underwent randomization. Among 4113 patients in the modified intention-to-treat population (2233 undergoing knee arthroplasty, 1850 undergoing hip arthroplasty, and 30 undergoing shoulder arthroplasty), surgical-site infections occurred in 91 of 2044 patients (4.5%) in the vancomycin group and in 72 of 2069 patients (3.5%) in the placebo group (relative risk, 1.28; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.94 to 1.73; P = 0.11). Among patients undergoing knee arthroplasty, surgical-site infections occurred in 63 of 1109 patients (5.7%) in the vancomyin group and in 42 of 1124 patients (3.7%) in the placebo group (relative risk, 1.52; 95% CI, 1.04 to 2.23). Among patients undergoing hip arthroplasty, surgical-site infections occurred in 28 of 920 patients (3.0%) in the vancomyin group and in 29 of 930 patients (3.1%) in the placebo group (relative risk, 0.98; 95% CI, 0.59 to 1.63). Adverse events occurred in 35 of 2010 patients (1.7%) in the vancomycin group and in 35 of 2030 patients (1.7%) in the placebo group, including hypersensitivity reactions in 24 of 2010 patients (1.2%) and 11 of 2030 patients (0.5%), respectively (relative risk, 2.20; 95% CI, 1.08 to 4.49), and acute kidney injury in 42 of 2010 patients (2.1%) and 74 of 2030 patients (3.6%), respectively (relative risk, 0.57; 95% CI, 0.39 to 0.83). CONCLUSIONS: The addition of vancomycin to cefazolin prophylaxis was not superi

BACKGROUND: In-depth immunogenicity studies of tixagevimab-cilgavimab (T-C) are lacking, including following breakthrough coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in vaccinated patients with hematologic malignancy (HM) receiving T-C as pre-exposure prophylaxis. METHODS: We performed a prospective, observational cohort study and detailed immunological analyses of 93 patients with HM who received T-C from May 2022, with and without breakthrough infection, during a follow-up period of 6 months and dominant Omicron BA.5 variant. RESULTS: In 93 patients who received T-C, there was an increase in Omicron BA.4/5 receptor-binding domain (RBD) immunoglobulin G (IgG) antibody titers that persisted for 6 months and was equivalent to 3-dose-vaccinated uninfected healthy controls at 1 month postinjection. Omicron BA.4/5 neutralizing antibody was lower in patients receiving B-cell-depleting therapy within 12 months despite receipt of T-C. COVID-19 vaccination during T-C treatment did not incrementally improve RBD or neutralizing antibody levels. In 16 patients with predominantly mild breakthrough infection, no change in serum neutralization of Omicron BA.4/5 postinfection was detected. Activation-induced marker assay revealed an increase in CD4+ (but not CD8+) T cells post infection, comparable to previously infected healthy controls. CONCLUSIONS: Our study provides proof-of-principle for a pre-exposure prophylaxis strategy and highlights the importance of humoral and cellular immunity post-breakthrough COVID-19 in vaccinated patients with HM.

Significance: Chronic wounds are associated with significant morbidity, marked loss of quality of life, and considerable economic burden. Evidence-based risk prediction to guide improved wound prevention and treatment is limited by the complexity in their etiology, clinical underreporting, and a lack of studies using large high-quality datasets. Recent Advancements: The objective of this review is to summarize key components and challenges in the development of personalized risk prediction tools for both prevention and management of chronic wounds, while highlighting several innovations in the development of better risk stratification. Critical Issues: Regression-based risk prediction approaches remain important for assessment of prognosis and risk stratification in chronic wound management. Advances in statistical computing have boosted the development of several promising machine learning (ML) and other semiautomated classification tools. These methods may be better placed to handle large number of wound healing risk factors from large datasets, potentially resulting in better risk prediction when combined with conventional methods and clinical experience and expertise. Future Directions: Where the number of predictors is large and heterogenous, the correlations between various risk factors complex, and very large data sets are available, ML may prove a powerful adjuvant for risk stratifying patients predisposed to chronic wounds. Conventional regression-based approaches remain important, particularly where the number of predictors is relatively small. Translating estimated risk derived from ML algorithms into practical prediction tools for use in clinical practice remains challenging.

BACKGROUND: Current predictive tools for TKA focus on clinicians rather than patients as the intended user. The purpose of this study was to develop a patient-focused model to predict health-related quality of life outcomes at 1-year post-TKA. METHODS: Patients who underwent primary TKA for osteoarthritis from a tertiary institutional registry after January 2006 were analysed. The primary outcome was improvement after TKA defined by the minimal clinically important difference in utility score at 1-year post-surgery. Potential predictors included demographic information, comorbidities, lifestyle factors, and patient-reported outcome measures. Four models were developed, including both conventional statistics and machine learning (artificial intelligence) methods: logistic regression, classification tree, extreme gradient boosted trees, and random forest models. Models were evaluated using discrimination and calibration metrics. RESULTS: A total of 3755 patients were included in the study. The logistic regression model performed the best with respect to both discrimination (AUC = 0.712) and calibration (intercept = -0.083, slope = 1.123, Brier score = 0.202). Less than 2% (n = 52) of the data were missing and therefore removed for complete case analysis. The final model used age (categorical), sex, baseline utility score, and baseline Veterans-RAND 12 responses as predictors. CONCLUSION: The logistic regression model performed better than machine learning algorithms with respect to AUC and calibration plot. The logistic regression model was well calibrated enough to stratify patients into risk deciles based on their likelihood of improvement after surgery. Further research is required to evaluate the performance of predictive tools through pragmatic clinical trials. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: Level II, decision analysis.

OBJECTIVES: Childhood trauma is common and associated with mental ill health. While high rates of trauma are observed across individual disorders, there is evidence that trauma is associated with an admixture of affective, anxiety and psychotic symptoms in adults. Given that early onset of mental disorder and trauma exposure herald poor outcomes, it is important to examine trauma prevalence rates in youth mental health services and to determine whether this trauma-related clustering is present in help-seeking young people. METHODS: We used data from the Transitions Study, a longitudinal investigation of young people attending headspace youth mental health services in Australia between January 2011 and August 2012. Participants were 775 young people aged 12-25. Childhood trauma was assessed using the Childhood Trauma Questionnaire. Multinomial regression was used to assess whether reported childhood trauma was more strongly associated with the co-occurrence of depression, anxiety, mania and psychosis symptoms than with any one in isolation. RESULTS: Approximately 84% of participants reported some form of abuse (emotional: 68%; physical: 32%; sexual: 22%) or neglect (emotional: 65%; physical: 46%). Exposure to multiple trauma types was common. Childhood trauma was significantly associated with each symptom domain. More severe childhood trauma was more strongly associated with the co-occurrence of symptoms than with any one symptom domain in isolation, such that more severely trauma-exposed young people were more likely to experience increased symptom clustering. CONCLUSIONS: Childhood trauma is pervasive in youth mental health services and associated with a symptom profile that cuts across traditional diagnostic boundaries.

BACKGROUND: Effectiveness of cladribine tablets, an oral disease-modifying treatment (DMT) for multiple sclerosis (MS), was established in clinical trials and confirmed with real-world experience. OBJECTIVES: Use real-world data to compare treatment patterns and clinical outcomes in people with MS (pwMS) treated with cladribine tablets versus other oral DMTs. METHODS: Retrospective treatment comparisons were based on data from the international MSBase registry. Eligible pwMS started treatment with cladribine, fingolimod, dimethyl fumarate, or teriflunomide tablets from 2018 to mid-2021 and were censored at treatment discontinuation/switch, death, loss to follow-up, pregnancy, or study period end. Treatment persistence was evaluated as time to discontinuation/switch; relapse outcomes included time to first relapse and annualized relapse rate (ARR). RESULTS: Cohorts included 633 pwMS receiving cladribine tablets, 1195 receiving fingolimod, 912 receiving dimethyl fumarate, and 735 receiving teriflunomide. Individuals treated with fingolimod, dimethyl fumarate, or teriflunomide switched treatment significantly more quickly than matched cladribine tablet cohorts (adjusted hazard ratio (95% confidence interval): 4.00 (2.54-6.32), 7.04 (4.16-11.93), and 6.52 (3.79-11.22), respectively). Cladribine tablet cohorts had significantly longer time-to-treatment discontinuation, time to first relapse, and lower ARR, compared with other oral DMT cohorts. CONCLUSION: Cladribine tablets were associated with a significantly greater real-world treatment persistence and more favorable relapse outcomes than all oral DMT comparators.

BACKGROUND: The Antifungal National Antimicrobial Prescribing Survey (AF-NAPS) was developed to undertake streamlined quality audits of antifungal prescribing. The validity and reliability of such tools is not characterized. OBJECTIVES: To assess the validity and reliability of the AF-NAPS quality assessment tool. METHODS: Case vignettes describing antifungal prescribing were prepared. A steering group was assembled to determine gold-standard classifications for appropriateness and guideline compliance. Infectious diseases physicians, antimicrobial stewardship (AMS) and specialist pharmacists undertook a survey to classify appropriateness and guideline compliance of prescriptions utilizing the AF-NAPS tool. Validity was measured as accuracy, sensitivity and specificity compared with gold standard. Inter-rater reliability was measured using Fleiss' kappa statistics. Assessors' responses and comments were thematically analysed to determine reasons for incorrect classification. RESULTS: Twenty-eight clinicians assessed 59 antifungal prescriptions. Overall accuracy of appropriateness assessment was 77.0% (sensitivity 85.3%, specificity 68.0%). Highest accuracy was seen amongst specialist (81%) and AMS pharmacists (79%). Prescriptions with lowest accuracy were in the haematology setting (69%), use of echinocandins (73%), mould-active azoles (75%) and for prophylaxis (71%). Inter-rater reliability was fair overall (0.3906), with moderate reliability amongst specialist pharmacists (0.5304). Barriers to accurate classification were incorrect use of the appropriateness matrix, knowledge gaps and lack of guidelines for some indications. CONCLUSIONS: The AF-NAPS is a valid tool, assisting assessors to correctly classify appropriate prescriptions more accurately than inappropriate prescriptions. Specialist and AMS pharmacists had similar performance, providing confidence that both can undertake AF-NAPS audits to a high standard. Identified reasons for incorrect classification w

The objectives of this study were to assess the immunogenicity and safety of COVID-19 vaccines in patients with hematologic malignancies. A systematic review and meta-analysis of clinical studies of immune responses to COVID-19 vaccination stratified by underlying malignancy and published from January 1, 2021, to August 31, 2021, was conducted using MEDLINE, EMBASE, and Cochrane CENTRAL. Primary outcome was the rate of seropositivity after 2 doses of COVID-19 vaccine with rates of seropositivity after 1 dose, rates of positive neutralizing antibodies, cellular responses, and adverse events as secondary outcomes. Rates were pooled from single-arm studies while rates of seropositivity were compared against the rate in healthy controls for comparator studies using a random effects model and expressed as a pooled odds ratios with 95% confidence intervals. Forty-four studies (16 mixed group, 28 disease specific) with 7064 patients were included in the analysis (2331 after first dose, 4733 after second dose). Overall seropositivity rates were 62% to 66% after 2 doses of COVID-19 vaccine and 37% to 51% after 1 dose. The lowest seropositivity rate was 51% in patients with chronic lymphocytic leukemia and was highest in patients with acute leukemia (93%). After 2 doses, neutralizing antibody response rates were 57% to 60%, and cellular response rates were 40% to 75%. Active treatment, ongoing or recent treatment with targeted and CD-20 monoclonal antibody therapies within 12 months were associated with poor immune responses to COVID-19 vaccine. New approaches to prevention are urgently required to reduce COVID-19 infection morbidity and mortality in high-risk patient groups that respond poorly to COVID-19 vaccination.

Background: Total hip replacement (THR) is a common and cost-effective procedure for end-stage osteoarthritis, but inappropriate utilization may be devaluing its true impact. The purpose of this study was to develop and test the internal validity of a prognostic algorithm for predicting the probability of non-response to THR surgery at 1 year. Methods: Analysis of outcome data extracted from an institutional registry of individuals (N = 2177) following elective THR performed between January 2012 and December 2019. OMERACT-OARSI responder criteria were applied to Western Ontario and McMaster Universities Arthritis Index (WOMAC) pain and function scores at pre- and 1 year post-THR, to determine non-response to surgery. Independent prognostic correlates of post-operative non-response observed in adjusted modelling were then used to develop a nomogram. Results: A total of 194 (8.9%) cases were deemed non-responders to THR. The degree of contribution (OR, 95% CI) of each explanatory factor to non-response on the nomogram was, morbid obesity (1.88, 1.16, 3.05), Kellgren−Lawrence grade <4 (1.89, 1.39, 2.56), WOMAC Global rating per 10 units (0.86, 0.79, 0.94) and the following co-morbidities: cerebrovascular disease (2.39, 1.33, 4.30), chronic pulmonary disease (1.64; 1.00, 2.71), connective tissue disease (1.99, 1.17, 3.39), diabetes (1.86, 1.26, 2.75) and liver disease (2.28, 0.99, 5.27). The concordance index for the nomogram was 0.70. Conclusion: We have developed a prognostic nomogram to calculate the probability of non-response to THR surgery. In doing so, we determined that both the probability of and predictive prognostic factors for non-response to THR differed from a previously developed nomogram for total knee replacement (TKR), confirming the benefit of designing decision support tools that are both condition and surgery site specific. Future external validation of the nomogram is required to confirm its generalisability.

INTRODUCTION: By subsidising access to direct acting antivirals (DAAs) for all people living with hepatitis C (HCV) in 2016, Australia is positioned to eliminate HCV as a public health threat. However, uptake of DAAs has declined over recent years and new initiatives are needed to engage people living with HCV in care. Active follow-up of HCV notifications by the health department to the notifying general practitioner (GP) may increase treatment uptake. In this study, we explore the impact of using hepatitis C notifications systems to engage diagnosing GPs and improve patient access to treatment. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: This study is a randomised controlled trial comparing enhanced case management of HCV notifications with standard of care. The intervention includes phone calls from a department of health (DoH) specialist HCV nurse to notifying GPs and offering HCV management support. The level of support requested by the GP was graded in complexity: level 1: HCV information only; level 2: follow-up testing advice; level 3: prescription support including linkage to specialist clinicians and level 4: direct patient contact. The study population includes all GPs in Tasmania who notified HCV diagnosis to the DoH between September 2020 and December 2021. The primary outcome is proportion of HCV cases who initiate DAAs after 12 weeks of HCV notification to the health department. Secondary outcomes are proportion of HCV notifications that complete HCV RNA testing, treatment workup and treatment completion. Multiple logistic regression modelling will explore factors associated with the primary and secondary outcomes. The sample size required to detect a significant difference for the primary outcome is 85 GPs in each arm with a two-sided alpha of 0.05% and 80% power. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: The study was approved by University of Tasmania's Human Research Ethics Committee (Protocol ID: 18418) on 17 December 2019. Results of the project will be presented in scientific meeti

BACKGROUND: Patients with highly active relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis inadequately responding to first-line therapies (interferon-based therapies, glatiramer acetate, dimethyl fumarate, and teriflunomide, known collectively as "BRACETD") often switch to natalizumab or fingolimod. OBJECTIVE: The aim was to estimate the comparative effectiveness of switching to natalizumab or fingolimod or within BRACETD using real-world data and to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of switching to natalizumab versus fingolimod using a United Kingdom (UK) third-party payer perspective. METHODS: Real-world data were obtained from MSBase for patients relapsing on BRACETD in the year before switching to natalizumab or fingolimod or within BRACETD. Three-way-multinomial-propensity-score-matched cohorts were identified, and comparisons between treatment groups were conducted for annualised relapse rate (ARR) and 6-month-confirmed disability worsening (CDW6M) and improvement (CDI6M). Results were applied in a cost-effectiveness model over a lifetime horizon using a published Markov structure with health states based on the Expanded Disability Status Scale. Other model parameters were obtained from the UK MS Survey 2015, published literature, and publicly available UK sources. RESULTS: The MSBase analysis found a significant reduction in ARR (rate ratio [RR] = 0.64; 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.57-0.72; p < 0.001) and an increase in CDI6M (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.67; 95% CI 1.30-2.15; p < 0.001) for switching to natalizumab compared with BRACETD. For switching to fingolimod, the reduction in ARR (RR = 0.91; 95% CI 0.81-1.03; p = 0.133) and increase in CDI6M (HR = 1.30; 95% CI 0.99-1.72; p = 0.058) compared with BRACETD were not significant. Switching to natalizumab was associated with a significant reduction in ARR (RR = 0.70; 95% CI 0.62-0.79; p < 0.001) and an increase in CDI6M (HR = 1.28; 95% CI 1.01-1.62; p = 0.040) compared to switching to fingolimod. No evidence of difference in

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Reaching Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) ≥7.0 represents the requirement for a wheelchair. Here we (i) assess the effect of ocrelizumab on time to EDSS ≥7.0 over the ORATORIO (NCT01194570) double-blind and extended controlled periods (DBP+ECP), (ii) quantify likely long-term benefits by extrapolating results, and (iii) assess the plausibility of extrapolations using an independent real-world cohort (MSBase registry; ACTRN12605000455662). METHODS: Post hoc analyses assessing time to 24-week confirmed EDSS ≥7.0 in two cohorts of patients with primary progressive multiple sclerosis (baseline EDSS 3.0-6.5) were investigated in ORATORIO and MSBase. RESULTS: In the ORATORIO DBP+ECP, ocrelizumab reduced the risk of 24-week confirmed EDSS ≥7.0 (hazard ratio = 0.54, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.31-0.92; p = 0.022). Extrapolated median time to 24-week confirmed EDSS ≥7.0 was 12.1 and 19.2 years for placebo and ocrelizumab, respectively (7.1-year delay [95% CI: -4.3 to 18.4]). In MSBase, the median time to 24-week confirmed EDSS ≥7.0 was 12.4 years. CONCLUSIONS: Compared with placebo, ocrelizumab significantly delayed time to 24-week confirmed wheelchair requirement in ORATORIO. The plausibility of the extrapolated median time to reach this milestone in the placebo group was supported by observed real-world data from MSBase. Extrapolated benefits for ocrelizumab over placebo could represent a truly meaningful delay in loss of ambulation and independence.

BACKGROUND: Teriflunomide and dimethyl fumarate (DMF) are first-line disease-modifying treatments for multiple sclerosis with similar labels that are used in comparable populations. OBJECTIVES: The objective of this study was to compare the effectiveness and persistence of teriflunomide and DMF in a Swedish real-world setting. METHODS: All relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS) patients in the Swedish MS registry initiating teriflunomide or DMF were included in the analysis. The primary endpoint was treatment persistence. Propensity score matching was used to adjust comparisons for baseline confounders. RESULTS: A total of 353 teriflunomide patients were successfully matched to 353 DMF. There was no difference in the rate of overall treatment discontinuation by treatment group across the entire observation period (hazard ratio (HR) = 1.12; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.91-1.39; p = 0.277; reference = teriflunomide). Annualised relapse rate (ARR) was comparable (p = 0.237) between DMF (0.07; 95% CI = 0.05-0.10) and teriflunomide (0.09; 95% CI = 0.07-0.12). There was no difference in time to first on-treatment relapse (HR = 0.78; 95% CI = 0.50-1.21), disability progression (HR = 0.55; 95% CI = 0.27-1.12) or confirmed improvement (HR = 1.17; 95% CI = 0.57-2.36). CONCLUSION: This population-based real-world study reports similarities in treatment persistence, clinical effectiveness and quality of life outcomes between teriflunomide and dimethyl fumarate.

BACKGROUND: Hepatitis C virus (HCV) treatment through primary care and community-based services will be a critical component of HCV elimination. We evaluated a nurse-coordinated programme providing care across eight sites and analysed progression through the HCV care cascade. METHODS: People-accessing services from six primary care clinics, a homeless crisis accommodation provider and a mental health service were directly referred to nurses or engaged by nurses during regular clinic visits. Nurses supported HCV testing, treatment and follow-up. The prescription was provided by affiliated clinicians. Logistic regression was used to examine factors associated with treatment commencement and sustained virological response (SVR) testing. RESULTS: Of 640 people referred to and/or engaged by the nurses from January 2017 to July 2019, 518 had an HCV RNA test of whom 381 (74%) were HCV RNA positive. Treatment was commenced by 281 (74%) people of whom 161 had an SVR test, 157 (97.5%) were cured. Opioid agonist therapy was associated with treatment commencement (aOR 2.68, 95% CI 1.48-4.88). People who were homeless/unstably housed were less likely to commence treatment (aOR 0.45, 95% CI 0.23-0.87). Treatment prescription from a specialist (aOR 2.39, 95% CI 1.20-4.74) and recent injection drug use (<6 months) (aOR 2.15, 95% CI 1.07-4.31) was associated with SVR testing. CONCLUSION: A nurse-coordinated model of care led to high levels of HCV treatment uptake and cure amongst people attending primary care and community services. More tailored models of care may be beneficial for people who are homeless or have unstable housing. These results support primary care and community-based hepatitis C treatment.

QC 20221212

BACKGROUND: The influence of sex on the failure of débridement antibiotics and implant retention (DAIR) for treating prosthetic joint infection (PJI) is important for decision-making, patient counseling, and equitable health care. However, very few studies in the orthopaedic literature conduct sex-specific analyses. AIM: The primary aim was to determine whether sex influences treatment success after DAIR. METHODS: A systematic review and individual patient data (IPD) meta-analysis was conducted. MEDLINE (Ovid), EMBASE (Ovid), Web of Science, and Google Scholar were searched, and IPD was requested via e-mail. Patients who underwent DAIR after developing PJI within 12 months of a primary total hip or knee arthroplasty were included in the analysis. Treatment failure was defined by the Delphi International Consensus criteria. Adjusted odds ratios for treatment failure were calculated using a mixed-effects logistic regression. RESULTS: The study collected and analyzed IPD of 1,116 patients from 21 cohorts. The odds of treatment failure were 29% lower in women (odds ratio, 0.71; 95% CI 0.54 to 0.017; P = 0.017), after adjusting for duration of symptoms >7 days and Staphylococcus aureus infection (methicillin-susceptible Staphylococcus aureus or any infection with S aureus). None of the 64 studies included in the systematic review conducted a sex-specific analysis. CONCLUSION: For patients who developed a PJI within 1 year postsurgery, females have lower odds of DAIR failure than males. Other factors also have varying effects on outcome for men and women. It is essential to implement sex-specific analysis in orthopaedic research.

INTRODUCTION: Prostate-specific membrane antigen positron emission tomography (PSMA-PET) has emerged as valuable imaging to assessing metastatic disease in prostate malignancy. However, there has been limited studies exploring the utility PSMA-PET as primary imaging assessing for index lesions prior to biopsy. The primary objective of this study is to compare the diagnostic accuracy of 18-fluorine PSMA (18F DCFPyL PSMA) PET scans to multiparametric MRI (mpMRI) to detect primary prostate cancer at prostate biopsy. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: The PEDAL trial is a multicentre, prospective, single-arm, paired comparison, non-randomised phase III trial in subjects considered for diagnostic prostate biopsy. Subjects who are eligible for a diagnostic mpMRI prostate will undergo additional same-day 18 F DCFPyl PSMA PET/CT of the chest, abdomen and pelvis. Software coregistration of the mpMRI and PSMA-PET/CT images will be performed. The reporting of the mpMRI prostate, PSMA-PET/CT and PSMA PET/MRI coregistration will be performed blinded. The diagnostic accuracy of PSMA PET/CT alone, and in combination with mpMRI, to detect prostate cancer will be assessed. Histopathology at prostate biopsy will be used as the reference standard. Sample size calculations estimate that 240 subjects will need to be recruited to demonstrate 20% superiority of PSMA-PET/CT. The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value of the combination of mpMRI prostate and PSMA PET/CT compared with targeted and systematic prostate biopsy will be evaluated. It is hypothesised that PSMA PET/CT combined with mpMRI prostate will have improved diagnostic accuracy compared with mpMRI prostate alone for detection of prostate cancer in biopsy-naïve men, resulting in a significant impact on patient management. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: This study was approved by the independent Human Research Ethics Committee. Results will be published in peer-reviewed medical journals with eligible i

BACKGROUND: The city of Melbourne, Australia experienced two waves of the COVID-19 epidemic peaking, the first in March and a more substantial wave in July 2020. During the second wave, a series of control measure were progressively introduced that initially slowed the growth of the epidemic then resulted in decreasing cases until there was no detectable local transmission. METHODS: To determine the relative efficacy of the progressively introduced intervention measures, we modelled the second wave as a series of exponential growth and decay curves. We used a linear regression of the log of daily cases vs time, using a four-segment linear spline model corresponding to implementation of the three successive major public health measures. The primary model used all reported cases between 14 June and 15 September 2020 then compared the projection of the model with observed cases predicting future case trajectory up until the 31 October 2020 to assess the use of exponential models in projecting the future course and planning future interventions. The main outcome measures were the exponential daily growth constants, analysis of residuals and estimates of the 95% confidence intervals for the expected case distributions, comparison of predicted daily cases. RESULTS: The exponential growth/decay constants in the primary analysis were: 0.122 (s.e. 0.004), 0.035 (s.e. 0.005), - 0.037 (s.e. 0.011), and - 0.069 (s.e. 0.003) for the initial growth rate, Stage 3, Stage 3 + compulsory masks and Stage 4, respectively. Extrapolation of the regression model from the 14 September to the 31 October matched the decline in observed cases over this period. CONCLUSIONS: The four-segment exponential model provided an excellent fit of the observed reported case data and predicted the day-to-day range of expected cases. The extrapolated regression accurately predicted the decline leading to epidemic control in Melbourne.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Certain demographic and clinical characteristics, including the use of some disease-modifying therapies (DMTs), are associated with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 infection severity in people with multiple sclerosis (MS). Comprehensive exploration of these relationships in large international samples is needed. METHODS: Clinician-reported demographic/clinical data from 27 countries were aggregated into a data set of 5,648 patients with suspected/confirmed coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). COVID-19 severity outcomes (hospitalization, admission to intensive care unit [ICU], requiring artificial ventilation, and death) were assessed using multilevel mixed-effects ordered probit and logistic regression, adjusted for age, sex, disability, and MS phenotype. DMTs were individually compared with glatiramer acetate, and anti-CD20 DMTs with pooled other DMTs and with natalizumab. RESULTS: Of 5,648 patients, 922 (16.6%) with suspected and 4,646 (83.4%) with confirmed COVID-19 were included. Male sex, older age, progressive MS, and higher disability were associated with more severe COVID-19. Compared with glatiramer acetate, ocrelizumab and rituximab were associated with higher probabilities of hospitalization (4% [95% CI 1-7] and 7% [95% CI 4-11]), ICU/artificial ventilation (2% [95% CI 0-4] and 4% [95% CI 2-6]), and death (1% [95% CI 0-2] and 2% [95% CI 1-4]) (predicted marginal effects). Untreated patients had 5% (95% CI 2-8), 3% (95% CI 1-5), and 1% (95% CI 0-3) higher probabilities of the 3 respective levels of COVID-19 severity than glatiramer acetate. Compared with pooled other DMTs and with natalizumab, the associations of ocrelizumab and rituximab with COVID-19 severity were also more pronounced. All associations persisted/enhanced on restriction to confirmed COVID-19. DISCUSSION: Analyzing the largest international real-world data set of people with MS with suspected/confirmed COVID-19 confirms that the use of anti-CD20 m

Background: Treatment resistance is a significant problem among young people experiencing moderate-to-severe anxiety, affecting nearly half of all patients. This study investigated the safety and efficacy of cannabidiol (CBD), a non-intoxicating component of Cannabis sativa, for anxiety disorders in young people who previously failed to respond to standard treatment. Methods: In this open-label trial, 31 young people aged 12-25 years with a DSM-5 anxiety disorder and no clinical improvement despite treatment with cognitive-behavioral therapy and/or antidepressant medication were enrolled between May 16, 2018, and June 28, 2019. All participants received add-on CBD for 12 weeks on a fixed-flexible schedule titrated up to 800 mg/d. The primary outcome was improvement in anxiety severity, measured with the Overall Anxiety Severity and Impairment Scale (OASIS), at week 12. Secondary outcomes included comorbid depressive symptoms, Clinical Global Impressions scale (CGI) score, and social and occupational functioning. Results: Mean (SD) OASIS scores decreased from 10.8 (3.8) at baseline to 6.3 (4.5) at week 12, corresponding to a -42.6% reduction (P < .0001). Depressive symptoms (P < .0001), CGI-Severity scale scores (P = .0008), and functioning (P = .04) improved significantly. Adverse events were reported in 25 (80.6%) of 31 participants and included fatigue, low mood, and hot flushes or cold chills. There were no serious and/or unexpected adverse events. Conclusions: These findings suggest that CBD can reduce anxiety severity and has an adequate safety profile in young people with treatment-resistant anxiety disorders. Randomized controlled trials are needed to confirm the efficacy and longer-term safety of this compound. Trial Registration: New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry (ANZCTR) identifier: ACTRN12617000825358.

BACKGROUND: Medial pivot (MP) designs are growing in popularity. They provide increased sagittal plane stability and theoretically replicate some aspects of native joint kinematics, which may improve total knee arthroplasty outcomes. METHODS: A systematic review was performed of randomized controlled trials (RCTs) that compared MP designs with cruciate-retaining, posterior-stabilized (PS), ultracongruent, or mobile-bearings in primary total knee arthroplasty, according to Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines. The primary outcome measures were all clinical function scores, patient-reported outcome measures, and range of motion. The secondary outcome was complications. Two authors independently selected studies, performed data extraction, and risk-of-bias assessment. Studies at high risk of bias were excluded from meta-analysis. Treatment effects were assessed using random-effects meta-analysis and quantified using pooled mean differences or incidence rate differences as appropriate. RESULTS: Eight RCTs met inclusion criteria. Five compared MP with PS, two with ultracongruent, and one with cruciate-retaining and mobile-bearing. In total, 350 knees were randomized to MP and 375 to conventional bearings. One RCT was excluded from meta-analysis because of high risk of bias. Meta-analysis comparing MP with PS only was possible and found no differences at any time points for any outcome measure, including 2-year follow-up for Oxford Knee Score (MD = 0.35 favoring PS; 95% CI -0.49 to 1.20) and range of motion (MD = 1.58 favoring MP; 95% CI -0.76 to 11.92, P = 0.30) and 12 months for Western Ontario Arthritis Index (MD = 4.42 favoring MP; 95% CI -12.04 to 3.20, P = 0.09). CONCLUSIONS: There is no difference in clinical outcomes, with contemporary measurement tools, at any time points, between MP and PS. There are insufficient RCTs comparing MP with other bearings.

OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was to develop and internally validate a clinical algorithm for use in general practice that predicts the probability of total knee replacement (TKR) surgery within the next five years for patients with osteoarthritis. The purpose of the model is to encourage early uptake of first-line treatment strategies in patients likely to undergo TKR and to provide a cohort for the development and testing of novel interventions that prevent or delay the progression to TKR. METHOD: Electronic health records (EHRs) from 201,462 patients with osteoarthritis aged 45 years and over from 483 general practices across Australia were linked with records from the Australian Orthopaedic Association National Joint Replacement Registry and the National Death Index. A Fine and Gray competing risk prediction model was developed using these data to predict the risk of TKR within the next five years. RESULTS: During a follow-up time of 5 years, 15,979 (7.9%) patients underwent TKR and 13,873 (6.9%) died. Predictors included in the final algorithm were age, previous knee replacement, knee surgery (other than TKR), prescribing of osteoarthritis medication in the 12 months prior, comorbidity count and diagnosis of a mental health condition. Optimism corrected model discrimination was 0.67 (95% CI: 0.66 to 0.67) and model calibration acceptable. CONCLUSION: The model has the potential to reduce some of the economic burden associated with TKR in Australia. External validation and further optimisation of the algorithm will be carried out prior to implementation within Australian general practice EHR systems.

BACKGROUND: Management of neutropenic fever in high-risk haematology patients is challenging; there are often few localising clinical features, and diagnostic tests have poor sensitivity and specificity. We aimed to compare how [18F]flurodeoxyglucose ([18F]FDG)-PET-CT scans and conventional CT scans affected the guidance of antimicrobial management and the outcomes of patients with persistent or recurrent neutropenic fever. METHODS: We did a multicentre, open-label, phase 3, randomised, controlled trial in two tertiary referral hospitals in Australia. We recruited adults aged 18 years or older who were receiving conditioning chemotherapy for haematopoietic stem-cell transplantation or chemotherapy for acute leukaemia and had persistent (>72 h) or recurrent (new fever beyond 72 h of initial onset interspersed with >48 h defervescence) neutropenic fever. Exclusion criteria were pregnancy, allergy to iodinated contrast, or estimated glomerular filtration rate of less than 30 mL/min. Patients were randomly assigned by computer-generated randomisation chart (1:1) to [18F]FDG-PET-CT or conventional CT. Masking was not possible because of the nature of the investigation. Scans were done within 3 days of random assignment. The primary endpoint was a composite of starting, stopping, or changing the spectrum (broadening or narrowing) of antimicrobial therapy-referred to here as antimicrobial rationalisation-within 96 h of the assigned scan, analysed per protocol. This trial is registered with clinicaltrials.gov, NCT03429387, and is complete. FINDINGS: Between Jan 8, 2018, and July 23, 2020, we assessed 316 patients for eligibility. 169 patients were excluded and 147 patients were randomly assigned to either [18F]FDG-PET-CT (n=73) or CT (n=74). Nine patients did not receive a scan per protocol, and two participants in each group were excluded for repeat entry into the study. 65 patients received [18F]FDG-PET-CT (38 [58%] male; 53 [82%] White) and 69 patients received CT (50 [7