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Lakes and ponds experience anthropogenically forced changes that may be non-linear and sometimes initiate ecosystem feedbacks leading to tipping points beyond which impacts become hard to reverse. In many cases climate change is a key driver, sometimes in concert with other stressors. Lakes are also important players in the global climate by ventilating a large share of terrestrial carbon (C) back to the atmosphere as greenhouse gases and will likely provide substantial feedbacks to climate change. In this paper we address various major changes in lake ecosystems and discuss if tipping points can be identified, predicted, or prevented, as well as the drivers and feedbacks associated with climate change. We focus on potential large-scale effects with regional or widespread impacts, such as eutrophication-driven anoxia and internal phosphorus (P) loading, increased loading of organic matter from terrestrial to lake ecosystems (lake “browning”), lake formation or disappearance in response to cryosphere shifts or changes in precipitation to evaporation ratios, switching from nitrogen to phosphorus limitation, salinization, and the spread of invasive species where threshold-type shifts occur. We identify systems and drivers that could lead to self-sustaining feedbacks, abrupt changes, and some degree of resilience, as opposed to binary states not subject to self-propelling changes or resilience. Changes driven by warming, browning, and eutrophication can cause increased lake stratification, heterotrophy (browning), and phytoplankton or macrophyte mass (eutrophication), which separately or collectively drive benthic oxygen depletion and internal phosphorus loading and in turn increase greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Several of these processes can feature potential tipping point thresholds, which further warming will likely make easier to surpass. We argue that the full importance of the vulnerability of lakes to climate and other anthropogenic impacts, as well as their fe

In recent years, research on normatively positive social tipping dynamics in response to the climate crisis has produced invaluable insights. In contrast, relatively little attention has been given to the potentially negative social tipping processes that might unfold due to an increasingly destabilized Earth system and to how they might in turn reinforce social and ecological destabilization dynamics and/or impede positive social change. In this paper, we discuss selected potential negative social tipping processes (anomie, radicalization and polarization, displacement, conflict, and financial destabilization) linked to Earth system destabilization. We draw on related research to understand the drivers and likelihood of these negative tipping dynamics, their potential effects on human societies and the Earth system, and the potential for cascading interactions (e.g. food insecurity and displacement) contributing to systemic risks. This first attempt to provide an explorative conceptualization and empirical account of potential negative social tipping dynamics linked to Earth system destabilization is intended to motivate further research into an under-studied area that is nonetheless crucial for our ability to respond to the climate crisis and for ensuring that positive social tipping dynamics are not averted by negative ones.

Estuaries receive and process a large amount of particulate organic carbon (POC) prior to its export into coastal waters. Studying the origin of this POC is key to understanding the fate of POC and the role of estuaries in the global carbon cycle. Here, we evaluated the concentrations of POC, as well as particulate organic nitrogen (PON), and used stable carbon and nitrogen isotopes to assess their sources across 13 contrasting British estuaries during five different sampling campaigns over 1 year. We found a high variability in POC and PON concentrations across the salinity gradient, reflecting inputs, and losses of organic material within the estuaries. Catchment land cover appeared to influence the contribution of POC to the total organic carbon flux from the estuary to coastal waters, with POC contributions >36% in estuaries draining catchments with a high percentage of urban/suburban land, and <11% in estuaries draining catchments with a high peatland cover. There was no seasonal pattern in the isotopic composition of POC and PON, suggesting similar sources for each estuary over time. Carbon isotopic ratios were depleted (-26.7 +/- 0.42 parts per thousand, average +/- sd) at the lowest salinity waters, indicating mainly terrigenous POC (TPOC). Applying a two-source mixing model, we observed high variability in the contribution of TPOC at the highest salinity waters between estuaries, with a median value of 57%. Our results indicate a large transport of terrigenous organic carbon into coastal waters, where it may be buried, remineralized, or transported offshore. Plain Language Summary Estuaries transport and process a large amount terrigenous particulate organic matter (i.e., carbon and nitrogen) prior to its export to coastal waters. In order to understand the fate of organic carbon and the role of estuaries in the global carbon cycle it is essential to improve our knowledge on its composition, origin, and amount of carbon transported. We quantified the

Food systems depend on reliable supplies of phosphorus to fertilize soils. Since 2020, a pandemic, geopolitical disputes, trade wars and escalating fuel prices have driven a >400% increase in phosphorus commodity prices, contributing to the current food crisis. The Russia-Ukraine conflict has disrupted phosphate trade further. Concurrently, phosphorus losses to freshwaters, through insufficient municipal wastewater treatment and inappropriate fertilizer use and land management practices, are a significant threat to water quality globally. Despite precariously balanced food and water security risks, nations are largely unaware of their “phosphorus vulnerability” and phosphorus is markedly absent in national and global policies addressing food and water security. Phosphorus vulnerability can be described as the degree to which people/systems are susceptible to harm due to the physical, geopolitical and socio-economic dimensions of global phosphorus scarcity and pollution. Here, we bring the current price spike into focus, highlighting the drivers, policy responses and their consequences. We highlight the need for an integrated assessment of phosphorus vulnerability that considers environmental, socio-economic and climate change risks across scales. We illustrate how reducing phosphorus waste, increasing phosphorus recycling, and wider system transformation can reduce national reliance on imported phosphorus, whilst enhancing food and water security. The current crisis in fertilizer prices represents a wake-up call for the international community to embrace the global phosphorus challenge.

Food systems depend on reliable supplies of phosphorus to fertilize soils. Since 2020, a pandemic, geopolitical disputes, trade wars and escalating fuel prices have driven a >400% increase in phosphorus commodity prices, contributing to the current food crisis. The Russia-Ukraine conflict has disrupted phosphate trade further. Concurrently, phosphorus losses to freshwaters, through insufficient municipal wastewater treatment and inappropriate fertilizer use and land management practices, are a significant threat to water quality globally. Despite precariously balanced food and water security risks, nations are largely unaware of their “phosphorus vulnerability” and phosphorus is markedly absent in national and global policies addressing food and water security. Phosphorus vulnerability can be described as the degree to which people/systems are susceptible to harm due to the physical, geopolitical and socio-economic dimensions of global phosphorus scarcity and pollution. Here, we bring the current price spike into focus, highlighting the drivers, policy responses and their consequences. We highlight the need for an integrated assessment of phosphorus vulnerability that considers environmental, socio-economic and climate change risks across scales. We illustrate how reducing phosphorus waste, increasing phosphorus recycling, and wider system transformation can reduce national reliance on imported phosphorus, whilst enhancing food and water security. The current crisis in fertilizer prices represents a wake-up call for the international community to embrace the global phosphorus challenge.

This White Paper report has been prepared by the World Water Quality Alliance (WWQA) Ecosystems Workstream as a contribution to the work of the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) in their implementation of United Nations Environment Assembly (UNEA) Resolution 3/10 on "Addressing water pollution to protect and restore water-related ecosystems" (UNEP/EA.3/Res.10). The report calls for international policy makers to consider a new sustainable approach to lake management, with ecosystem protection and restoration at its core.

Estuaries receive and process a large amount of particulate organic carbon (POC) prior to its export into coastal waters. Studying the origin of this POC is key to understanding the fate of POC and the role of estuaries in the global carbon cycle. Here, we evaluated the concentrations of POC, as well as particulate organic nitrogen (PON), and used stable carbon and nitrogen isotopes to assess their sources across 13 contrasting British estuaries during five different sampling campaigns over 1 year. We found a high variability in POC and PON concentrations across the salinity gradient, reflecting inputs, and losses of organic material within the estuaries. Catchment land cover appeared to influence the contribution of POC to the total organic carbon flux from the estuary to coastal waters, with POC contributions >36% in estuaries draining catchments with a high percentage of urban/suburban land, and <11% in estuaries draining catchments with a high peatland cover. There was no seasonal pattern in the isotopic composition of POC and PON, suggesting similar sources for each estuary over time. Carbon isotopic ratios were depleted (−26.7 ± 0.42‰, average ± sd) at the lowest salinity waters, indicating mainly terrigenous POC (TPOC). Applying a two-source mixing model, we observed high variability in the contribution of TPOC at the highest salinity waters between estuaries, with a median value of 57%. Our results indicate a large transport of terrigenous organic carbon into coastal waters, where it may be buried, remineralized, or transported offshore.

This chapter assesses scientific evidence for tipping points across the biosphere, which comprises Earth’s ecosystems. Human-driven habitat loss, pollution, exploitation and, increasingly, climate change are degrading ecosystems across the planet, some of which can pass tipping points beyond which a ‘regime shift’ to an alternative (and often less diverse or beneficial) ecosystem state occurs.Evidence for tipping points emerges across many biomes. In forests,large parts of the Amazon rain forest could tip to degraded forest or impoverished savanna, while tipping in boreal forests is possible but more uncertain, and whether current temperate forest disturbance could lead to tipping is unclear. In open savannas and drylands,drying could lead to desertification in some areas, while in others encroachment by trees and shrubs could see these biodiverse ecosystems shift to a forested or degraded state. Nutrient pollution and warming can trigger lakes to switch to an algae-dominated low-oxygen state. Coral reefs are already experiencing tipping points, as more frequent warming-driven bleaching events, along with pollution,extreme weather events and diseases, tip them to degraded algae-dominated states. Mangroves and sea grasses are at risk of regional tipping, along with kelp forests, marine food webs and some fisheries,which are known to be able to collapse.Together, these tipping points threaten the livelihoods of millions of people, and some thresholds are likely imminent. Stabilising climate is critical for reducing the likelihood of widespread ecosystem tipping points, but tackling other pressures can also help increase ecological resilience, push back tipping and support human well being.

The aim of this project was to assess the key evidence available to improve understanding of climate change impacts on the water quality of Scottish standing waters. Recommendations were made on changes needed to adapt water policy and monitoring networks as part of Scotland’s response to the climate crisis.

Editorial.

Five countries hold 85% of the planet’s phosphate rock reserves. High dependency on imported phosphate rock and/or mineral phosphorus fertiliser can contribute to national food system vulnerability. Geological depletion of phosphate rock is not an immediate threat, however geopolitical, institutional, economic, and managerial factors may impact phosphorus access. Improving the efficient use of phosphorus in agriculture and shifting reliance away from mined phosphorus sources by increasing phosphorus recycling may offer the greatest protection against potential phosphorus supply risks.

Recycling phosphorus-rich organic wastes and manures is critical for phosphorus sustainability and a transition to a more circular economy for phosphorus. Beyond agronomic benefits, the win-wins are numerous, with benefits to society, environment, economy, and business growth. However, to significantly increase phosphorus recycling, education, awareness-raising, investment in technology and infrastructure, and policy support are urgently needed.

Managing phosphorus underpins the sustainability of the food system and is vital in achieving future food security. Strategies to deliver phosphorus sustainability include a transition to circular phosphorus value chains, land-use planning approaches that support greater phosphorus use efficiency and a reduction in consumption of animal products. Affordable access to sustainable phosphorus sources is imperative to ensure food provision for all and to protect the livelihoods of smallholder and marginal farmers.

Globally, anthropogenic actions of land use change and intensification and deliberate or unintentional species invasions have adversely affected lakes, resulting in widespread loss of benefits to society. In recognition of these impacts, restoration efforts have increased in recent years. Restoration is a challenging and expensive process, however, and success rates are variable and often unpredictable. Here, we demonstrate that early actions to prevent degradation of lakes currently in good ecological condition are preferable to attempting to restore lakes that have been allowed to degrade, to allow continuity of ecosystem services. We compare case studies for 3 lakes that use preventative approaches to mitigate the effects of anthropogenic pressures. These initiatives aim to protect or enhance long-term societal benefits through building resilient ecosystems and maintaining ecological integrity. They differ from restoration projects, where lakes are often in an advanced state of degradation resilient to modest restoration efforts. We identify the need to mainstream preventative lake management including building a robust evidence base to support initiatives aimed at reversing the early stages of changes in ecological state.