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Cross-ecosystem subsidies are critical to ecosystem structure and function, especially in recipient ecosystems where they are the primary source of organic matter to the food web. Subsidies are indicative of processes connecting ecosystems and can couple ecological dynamics across system boundaries. However, the degree to which such flows can induce cross-ecosystem cascades of spatial synchrony, the tendency for system fluctuations to be correlated across locations, is not well understood. Synchrony has destabilizing effects on ecosystems, adding to the importance of understanding spatiotemporal patterns of synchrony transmission. In order to understand whether and how spatial synchrony cascades across the marine-terrestrial boundary via resource subsidies, we studied the relationship between giant kelp forests on rocky nearshore reefs and sandy beach ecosystems that receive resource subsidies in the form of kelp wrack (detritus). We found that synchrony cascades from rocky reefs to sandy beaches, with spatiotemporal patterns mediated by fluctuations in live kelp biomass, wave action, and beach width. Moreover, wrack deposition synchronized local abundances of shorebirds that move among beaches seeking to forage on wrack-associated invertebrates, demonstrating that synchrony due to subsidies propagates across trophic levels in the recipient ecosystem. Synchronizing resource subsidies likely play an underappreciated role in the spatiotemporal structure, functioning, and stability of ecosystems.

Ecotones are the transition zones between ecosystems and can exhibit steep gradients in ecosystem properties controlling flows of energy and organisms between them. Ecotones are understood to be sensitive to climate and environmental changes, but the potential for spatiotemporal dynamics of ecotones to act as indicators of such changes is limited by methodological and logistical constraints. Here, we use a novel combination of satellite remote sensing and analyses of spatial synchrony to identify the tropical dry forest–rainforest ecotone in Area de Conservación Guanacaste, Costa Rica. We further examine how climate and topography influence the spatiotemporal dynamics of the ecotone, showing that ecotone is most prevalent at mid‐elevations where the topography leads to moisture accumulation and that climatic moisture availability influences up and downslope interannual variation in ecotone location. We found some evidence for long‐term (22 year) trends toward upslope or downslope ecotone shifts, but stronger evidence that regional climate mediates topographic controls on ecotone properties. Our findings suggest the ecotone boundary on the dry forest side may be less resilient to future precipitation reductions and that if drought frequency increases, ecotone reductions are more likely to occur along the dry forest boundary. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Fish recruitment is interannually variable and challenging to predict. Annual recruitment is often regionally synchronized among populations and identifying drivers of such synchrony may help shed light on recruitment dynamics. We investigated interannual variation of alewife Alosa pseudoharengus recruitment by estimating year-class strength for populations from three of the Laurentian Great Lakes (lakes Huron, Michigan, and Ontario) using annual assessment survey data from 1968 to 2022. We first determined the age when year-class strength was set for each dataset. We then used a mixed-modeling approach incorporating age, year-class, and sampling year to estimate year-class strength for each study lake. Thereafter, we evaluated regional synchrony in year-class strength across the three lakes and evaluated potential climatic drivers of synchrony. Our results suggest that alewife year-class strength is set by age-1. Our model-derived indices of alewife year-class strength were synchronized among the three lakes, and we identified spring-summer degree-days as a potential regional driver of synchrony. This analysis highlights the potential for strong influence of climatic conditions on fish recruitment in large freshwater systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A major impediment to wildlife conservation and management, from a quantitative perspective, is dealing with high degrees of uncertainty associated with population estimates. Integrated population models (IPMs) can help alleviate that challenge, but they are often limited to narrow spatial or temporal windows owing to the financial and logistical burdens of acquiring requisite datasets. To expand the spatiotemporal scope of practical IPM implementation, we developed a novel method that expresses demographic relatedness among sampled and unsampled locations using geographic principles of spatial autocorrelation.We interpolated demographic parameters at unsampled locations using parameter estimates from data‐informed locations. Errors attributable to the interpolative process were corrected using a joint likelihood and locally recorded count data ('cheaper' and broadly distributed). We evaluated the spatially interpolated IPM (SIIPM) for precision and accuracy under variable levels of spatial autocorrelation using simulated data and a Leave‐One‐Out Cross‐Validation (LOOCV) technique. Conventional IPMs and state‐space models (SSM) were fit to the same simulated datasets to provide a comparative assessment of the novel method. In a final, empirical demonstration we fit the SIIPM to data collected from Greater Sage‐Grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus; sage‐grouse) populations located in Nevada, U.S.A. during 2013–2021.SIIPMs outperformed conventional IPMs when fit to data possessing moderate‐to‐high levels of spatial autocorrelation. Under moderate levels of autocorrelation, the average improvement in parameter estimation was 13.6% for survival, 65.3% for recruitment and 23.7% for rate of population change (λ). When spatial autocorrelation was low, the SIIPM still outperformed contemporary approaches in areas that were geographically close (<67 km) to sampling locations. Under low autocorrelation‐near distance scenarios, we observed SIIPM parameters that were 30.8% (recruitment), 32.5% (λ; IPM comparison) and 54.0% (λ; SSM comparison) more precise than contemporary models.Spatial autocorrelation is often assumed but rarely tested when comparing population dynamics across regions of large geographic extent. We demonstrated that SIIPMs can improve precision of species' vital rate estimation when extrapolating model inference beyond populations for which long‐term monitoring data exists. Specific to sage‐grouse, these results support previous conclusions of broad‐scale spatial autocorrelation in population dynamics and a reproductive‐survival trade‐off previously documented at smaller scales. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Spatial synchrony may be tail‐dependent, meaning it is stronger for peaks rather than troughs, or vice versa. High interannual variation in seed production in perennial plants, called masting, can be synchronized at subcontinental scales, triggering extensive resource pulses or famines. We used data from 99 populations of European beech (Fagus sylvatica) to examine whether masting synchrony differs between mast peaks and years of seed scarcity. Our results revealed that seed scarcity occurs simultaneously across the majority of the species range, extending to populations separated by distances up to 1800 km. Mast peaks were spatially synchronized at distances up to 1000 km and synchrony was geographically concentrated in northeastern Europe. Extensive synchrony in the masting lower tail means that famines caused by beech seed scarcity are amplified by their extensive spatial synchrony, with diverse consequences for food web functioning and climate change biology. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Population cycles have been observed in mammals as well as insects, but consistent population cycling has rarely been documented in agroecosystems and never for a beetle. We analysed the long-term population patterns of the cabbage stem flea beetle Psylliodes chrysocephala in winter oilseed rape over 50 years. Psylliodes chrysocephala larval density from 3045 winter oilseed rape fields in southern Sweden showed strong 8-year population cycles in regional mean density. Fluctuations in larval density were synchronous over time across five subregional populations. Subregional mean environmental variables explained 90.6% of the synchrony in P. chrysocephala populations at the 7-11 year time-scale. The number of days below -10°C showed strong anti-phase coherence with larval densities in the 7-11 year time-scale, such that more cold days resulted in low larval densities. High levels of the North Atlantic Oscillation weather system are coherent and anti-phase with cold weather in Scania, Sweden. At the field-scale, later crop planting date and more cold winter days were associated with decreased overwintering larval density. Warmer autumn temperatures, resulting in greater larval accumulated degree days early in the season, increased overwintering larval density. Despite variation in environmental conditions and crop management, 8-year cycles persisted for cabbage stem flea beetle throughout the 50 years of data collection. Moran effects, influenced by the North Atlantic Oscillation weather patterns, are the primary drivers of this cycle and synchronicity. Insect pest data collected in commercial agriculture fields is an abundant source of long-term data. We show that an agricultural pest can have the same periodic population cycles observed in perennial and unmanaged ecosystems. This unexpected finding has implications for sustainable pest management in agriculture and shows the value of long-term pest monitoring projects as an additional source of time-series data to untangle the drivers of population cycles.

Spatial synchrony is the tendency for population fluctuations to be correlated among different locations. This phenomenon is a ubiquitous feature of population dynamics and is important for ecosystem stability, but several aspects of synchrony remain unresolved. In particular, the extent to which any particular mechanism, such as dispersal, contributes to observed synchrony in natural populations has been difficult to determine. To address this gap, we leveraged recent methodological improvements to determine how dispersal structures synchrony in giant kelp (Macrocystis pyrifera), a global marine foundation species that has served as a useful system for understanding synchrony. We quantified population synchrony and fecundity with satellite imagery across 11 years and 880 km of coastline in southern California, USA, and estimated propagule dispersal probabilities using a high‐resolution ocean circulation model. Using matrix regression models that control for the influence of geographic distance, resources (seawater nitrate), and disturbance (destructive waves), we discovered that dispersal was an important driver of synchrony. Our findings were robust to assumptions about propagule mortality during dispersal and consistent between two metrics of dispersal: (1) the individual probability of dispersal and (2) estimates of demographic connectivity that incorporate fecundity (the number of propagules dispersing). We also found that dispersal and environmental conditions resulted in geographic clusters with distinct patterns of synchrony. This study is among the few to statistically associate synchrony with dispersal in a natural population and the first to do so in a marine organism. The synchronizing effects of dispersal and environmental conditions on foundation species, such as giant kelp, likely have cascading effects on the spatial stability of biodiversity and ecosystem function. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding how synchronous species fluctuations affect community stability is a main research topic in ecology. Yet experimental studies evaluating how changes in disturbance regimes affect the synchrony and stability of populations and communities remain rare. We hypothesized that spatially heterogeneous disturbances of moderate intensity would promote metacommunity stability by decreasing the spatial synchrony of species fluctuations. To test this hypothesis, we exposed rocky shore communities of algae and invertebrates to homogeneous and gradient-like spatial patterns of disturbance at two levels of intensity for 4 years and used synchrony networks to characterize community responses to these disturbances. The gradient-like disturbance at low intensity enhanced spatial ß diversity compared to the other treatments and produced the most heterogeneous and least synchronized network, which was also the most stable in terms of population and community fluctuations. In contrast, homogeneous disturbance destabilized the community, enhancing spatial synchronization. Intense disturbances always reduced spatial ß diversity, indicating that strong perturbations could destabilize communities via biotic homogenization regardless of their spatial structure. Our findings corroborated theoretical predictions, emphasizing the importance of spatially heterogeneous disturbances in promoting stability by amplifying asynchronous spatial and temporal fluctuations in population and community abundance. In contrast to other networks, synchrony networks are vulnerable to the removal of most peripheral nodes, which are less synchronized, but may contribute more to stability than other nodes by dampening large fluctuations in species abundance. Our findings suggest that climate change and direct anthropogenic disturbance can compromise the stability of ecological communities through combined effects on diversity and synchrony, as well as further affecting ecosystems through habitat loss. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Synchrony is broadly important to population and community dynamics due to its ubiquity and implications for extinction dynamics, system stability, and species diversity. Investigations of synchrony in community ecology have tended to focus on covariance in the abundances of multiple species in a single location. Yet, the importance of regional environmental variation and spatial processes in community dynamics suggests that community properties, such as species richness, could fluctuate synchronously across patches in a metacommunity, in an analog of population spatial synchrony. Here, we test the prevalence of this phenomenon and the conditions under which it may occur using theoretical simulations and empirical data from 20 marine and terrestrial metacommunities. Additionally, given the importance of biodiversity for stability of ecosystem function, we posit that spatial synchrony in species richness is strongly related to stability. Our findings show that metacommunities often exhibit spatial synchrony in species richness. We also found that richness synchrony can be driven by environmental stochasticity and dispersal, two mechanisms of population spatial synchrony. Richness synchrony also depended on community structure, including species evenness and beta diversity. Strikingly, ecosystem stability was more strongly related to richness synchrony than to species richness itself, likely because richness synchrony integrates information about community processes and environmental forcing. Our study highlights a new approach for studying spatiotemporal community dynamics and emphasizes the spatial dimensions of community dynamics and stability.

Population spatial synchrony—the tendency for temporal population fluctuations to be correlated across locations—is common and important to metapopulation stability and persistence. One common cause of spatial synchrony, termed the Moran effect, occurs when populations respond to environmental fluctuations, such as weather, that are correlated over space. Although the degree of spatial synchrony in environmental fluctuations can differ between seasons and different population processes occur in different seasons, the impact on population spatial synchrony is uncertain because prior work has largely assumed that the spatial synchrony of environmental fluctuations and their effect on populations are consistent over annual sampling intervals. We used theoretical models to examine how seasonality in population processes and the spatial synchrony of environmental drivers affect population spatial synchrony. We found that population spatial synchrony can depend not only on the spatial synchrony of environmental drivers but also on the degree to which environmental fluctuations are correlated across seasons, locally, and across space. Moreover, measurements of synchrony from "snapshot" population censuses may not accurately reflect synchrony during other parts of the year. Together, these results show that neglecting seasonality in environmental conditions and population processes is consequential for understanding population spatial synchrony and its driving mechanisms. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Dendritic habitats, such as river ecosystems, promote the persistence of species by favouring spatial asynchronous dynamics among branches. Yet, our understanding of how network topology influences metapopulation synchrony in these ecosystems remains limited. Here, we introduce the concept of fluvial synchrogram to formulate and test expectations regarding the geography of metapopulation synchrony across watersheds. By combining theoretical simulations and an extensive fish population time-series dataset across Europe, we provide evidence that fish metapopulations can be buffered against synchronous dynamics as a direct consequence of network connectivity and branching complexity. Synchrony was higher between populations connected by direct water flow and decayed faster with distance over the Euclidean than the watercourse dimension. Likewise, synchrony decayed faster with distance in headwater than mainstem populations of the same basin. As network topology and flow directionality generate fundamental spatial patterns of synchrony in fish metapopulations, empirical synchrograms can aid knowledge advancement and inform conservation strategies in complex habitats.

To assess the population dynamics, abundance of bitterling species and two non-bitterling cyprinid species were investigated in Lake Kasumigaura, Japan. Fish capture was conducted at nine sites, including rivers or agricultural ditches independently flowing into the lake, every September from 2005 to 2013. Large fluctuations in the abundance of four bitterling species were observed during survey years. Regional population decline of Acheilognathus tabira erythropterus and Acheilognathus melanogaster was detected through 9 years of survey. In addition, spatial synchrony between bitterling species was also observed in the population dynamics. On the other hand, no significant synchrony was observed between bitterlings and the two non-bitterling species. Synchrony of native bitterlings declined with increasing distance, whereas that of Rhodeus ocellatus ocellatus was almost constant regardless of distance. These results supported that the spatially synchronous decline of bitterling species was caused by the Moran effect and dispersal. In other words, results of this study showed that factors that vary over a regional scale, such as climate, and the loss of connectivity among habitats may have contributed to the decline of bitterling species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Sugar beet is threatened by virus yellows, a disease complex vectored by aphids that reduces sugar content. We present an analysis of Myzus persicae population dynamics with and without neonicotinoid seed treatment. We use 6 years' yellow water trap and field‐collected aphid data and two decades of 12.2 m suction‐trap aphid migration data. We investigate both spatial synchrony and forecasting error to understand the structure and spatial scale of field counts and why forecasting aphid migrants lacks accuracy. Our aim is to derive statistical parameters to inform regionwide pest management strategies. Results: Spatial synchrony, indicating the coincident change in counts across the region over time, is rarely present and is best described as stochastic. Uniquely, early season field populations in 2019 did show spatial synchrony to 90 km compared to the overall average weekly correlation length of 23 km. However, 70% of the time series were spatially heterogenous, indicating patchy between‐field dynamics. Field counts lacked the same seasonal trend and did not peak in the same week. Forecasts tended to under‐predict mid‐season log10 counts. A strongly negative correlation between forecasting error and the proportion of zeros was shown. Conclusion: Field populations are unpredictable and stochastic, regardless of neonicotinoid seed treatment. This outcome presents a problem for decision‐support that cannot usefully provide a single regionwide solution. Weighted permutation entropy inferred that M. persicae 12.2 m suction‐trap time series had moderate to low intrinsic predictability. Early warning using a migration model tended to predict counts at lower levels than observed. © 2022 The Authors. Pest Management Science published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Society of Chemical Industry. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Uncovering the demographic basis of population fluctuations is a central goal of population biology. This is particularly challenging for spatially structured populations, which require disentangling synchrony in demographic rates from coupling via movement between locations. In this study, we fit a stage-structured metapopulation model to a 29-year time series of threespine stickleback abundance in the heterogeneous and productive Lake Mývatn, Iceland. The lake comprises two basins (North and South) connected by a channel through which the stickleback disperse. The model includes time-varying demographic rates, allowing us to assess the potential contributions of recruitment and survival, spatial coupling via movement, and demographic transience to the population's large fluctuations in abundance. Our analyses indicate that recruitment was only modestly synchronized between the two basins, whereas survival probabilities of adults were more strongly synchronized, contributing to cyclic fluctuations in the lake-wide population size with a period of approximately 6 years. The analyses further show that the two basins were coupled through movement, with the North Basin subsidizing the South Basin and playing a dominant role in driving the lake-wide dynamics. Our results show that cyclic fluctuations of a metapopulation can be explained in terms of the combined effects of synchronized demographic rates and spatial coupling. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding the spatio-temporal evolution of streamflow droughts and their relationship with potential causative processes is critical for effective drought management. This study assesses spatial synchrony and temporal clustering of streamflow droughts in six major river basins of Peninsular India. The importance of baseflow, rainfall deficits, soil moisture deficits and high temperatures in triggering streamflow droughts is also investigated to identify the dominant driver during the period 1981–2015. Spatial synchrony of streamflow droughts is investigated using multivariate Ripley’s K function and temporal clustering is evaluated using univariate Ripley’s K at various timescales. The interactions of streamflow droughts with potential causative processes are investigated using event coincidence analysis. At regional scale, streamflow droughts in peninsular catchments show strong spatial synchrony even at longer timescales. However, at basin scale, droughts in the catchments show strong spatial synchrony only at smaller timescales, behave independently of each other and achieve asynchrony with time, especially at longer timescales. Streamflow droughts show the strongest temporal clustering at smaller timescales and the strength of clustering decreases after a 3 year timescale. Rainfall deficits primarily control streamflow droughts in Peninsular India at a range of lags, except just before the onset of drought events where baseflow dominates. In addition, trigger coincidence rates of baseflow are lower than rainfall deficits but higher than soil moisture deficits and high temperatures at longer time lags.

The conjugacy of the dynamics of northern red-backed vole (Myodes rutilus Pall.) populations among nine localities of the Komi Republic and Arkhangelsk oblast, between which the distance varied from 88 to 947 km was analyzed. Asynchronous oscillations were observed between 1965 and 2006. As the geographical distance between the localities increased, spatial synchronization decreased. In the period from 2007 to 2018, there were already synchronous changes in the number of this species throughout the territory. One of the likely factors for changing the spatial synchronicity of population dynamics is climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Identifying the environmental drivers of variation in fitness‐related traits is a central objective in ecology and evolutionary biology. Temporal fluctuations of these environmental drivers are often synchronized at large spatial scales. Yet, whether synchronous environmental conditions can generate spatial synchrony in fitness‐related trait values (i.e., correlated temporal trait fluctuations across populations) is poorly understood. Using data from long‐term monitored populations of blue tits (Cyanistes caeruleus, n = 31), great tits (Parus major, n = 35), and pied flycatchers (Ficedula hypoleuca, n = 20) across Europe, we assessed the influence of two local climatic variables (mean temperature and mean precipitation in February–May) on spatial synchrony in three fitness‐related traits: laying date, clutch size, and fledgling number. We found a high degree of spatial synchrony in laying date but a lower degree in clutch size and fledgling number for each species. Temperature strongly influenced spatial synchrony in laying date for resident blue tits and great tits but not for migratory pied flycatchers. This is a relevant finding in the context of environmental impacts on populations because spatial synchrony in fitness‐related trait values among populations may influence fluctuations in vital rates or population abundances. If environmentally induced spatial synchrony in fitness‐related traits increases the spatial synchrony in vital rates or population abundances, this will ultimately increase the risk of extinction for populations and species. Assessing how environmental conditions influence spatiotemporal variation in trait values improves our mechanistic understanding of environmental impacts on populations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The effects of dispersal on spatial synchrony and population variability have been well documented in theoretical research, and a growing number of empirical tests have been performed. Yet a synthesis is still lacking. Here, we conducted a meta-analysis of relevant experiments and examined how dispersal affected spatial synchrony and temporal population variability across scales. Our analyses showed that dispersal generally promoted spatial synchrony, and such effects increased with dispersal rate and decreased with environmental correlation among patches. The synchronizing effect of dispersal, however, was detected only when spatial synchrony was measured using the correlation-based index, not when the covariance-based index was used. In contrast to theoretical predictions, the effect of dispersal on local population variability was generally nonsignificant, except when environmental correlation among patches was negative and/or the experimental period was long. At the regional scale, while low dispersal stabilized metapopulation dynamics, high dispersal led to destabilization. Overall, the sign and strength of dispersal effects on spatial synchrony and population variability were modulated by taxa, environmental heterogeneity, type of perturbations, patch number, and experimental length. Our synthesis demonstrates that dispersal can affect the dynamics of spatially distributed populations, but its effects are context dependent on abiotic and biotic factors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Spatial synchrony is a ubiquitous and important feature of population dynamics, but many aspects of this phenomenon are not well understood. In particular, it is largely unknown how multiple environmental drivers interact to determine synchrony via Moran effects, and how these impacts vary across spatial and temporal scales. Using new wavelet statistical techniques, we characterised synchrony in populations of giant kelp Macrocystis pyrifera, a widely distributed marine foundation species, and related synchrony to variation in oceanographic conditions across 33 years (1987–2019) and >900 km of coastline in California, USA. We discovered that disturbance (storm‐driven waves) and resources (seawater nutrients)—underpinned by climatic variability—act individually and interactively to produce synchrony in giant kelp across geography and timescales. Our findings demonstrate that understanding and predicting synchrony, and thus the regional stability of populations, relies on resolving the synergistic and antagonistic Moran effects of multiple environmental drivers acting on different timescales. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A long-standing challenge for population biology has been to understand why some species are characterized by populations that fluctuate in size independently, while populations of other species fluctuate synchronously across space. The effects of climatic variation and dispersal have been invoked to explain synchronous population dynamics, however an understanding of the relative influence of these drivers in natural populations is lacking. Here we compare support for dispersal- versus climate-driven models of interspecific variation in synchrony using 27 years of observations of 65 butterfly species at 10 sites spanning 2750 m of elevation in Northern California. The degree of spatial synchrony exhibited by each butterfly species was used as a response in a unique approach that allowed us to investigate whether interspecific variation in response to climate or dispersal propensity was most predictive of interspecific variation in synchrony. We report that variation in sensitivity to climate explained 50% of interspecific variation in synchrony, whereas variation in dispersal propensity explained 23%. Sensitivity to the El Niño Southern Oscillation, a primary driver of regional climate, was the best predictor of synchrony. Combining sensitivity to climate and dispersal propensity into a single model did not greatly increase model performance, confirming the primacy of climatic sensitivity for driving spatial synchrony in butterflies. Finally, we uncovered a relationship between spatial synchrony and population decline that is consistent with theory, but small in magnitude, which suggests that the degree to which populations fluctuate in synchrony is of limited use for understanding the ongoing decline of the Northern California butterfly fauna.

Diversity responses to climatic factors in plant communities are well understood from experiments, but less known in natural conditions due to the rarity of appropriate long-term observational data. In this paper, we use long-term transect data sampled annually in three natural grasslands of different species pools, soils, landscape contexts and land use histories. Analyzing these specific belt transect data of contiguous small sampling units enabled us to explore scale dependence and spatial synchrony of diversity patterns within and among sites. The 14-year study period covered several droughts, including one extreme event between 2011 and 2012. We demonstrated that all natural grasslands responded to droughts by considerable fluctuations of diversity, but, overall, they remained stable. The plant functional group of annuals showed high resilience at all sites, while perennials were resistant to droughts. Our results were robust to changing spatial scales of observations, and we also demonstrated that within-site spatial synchrony could be used as a sensitive indicator of external climatic effects. We propose the broad application of high-resolution belt transects for powerful and adaptive vegetation monitoring in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The population dynamics and impacts of non-native species often change following their initial establishment, with impacts either increasing or decreasing over time. The reasons why the abundance of an invading species may change are varied but often reflect changes in the way in which populations interact with resident communities. Here we analyze changes in the outbreak dynamics of Lymantria dispar (formerly known to as the "gypsy moth"), a Eurasian foliage-feeding insect that has been established in N. America for ca. 150 years. We find that during the course of this species' presence in N. America, it has continually exhibited population dynamics in which populations reach outbreak levels, resulting in defoliation of large forested areas. However, there is evidence of some changes in both the periodicity and synchrony of these outbreaks. We hypothesize that the accidental introduction of an entomopathogenic nucleopolyhedrosis virus around 1906 resulted in populations shifting from a pattern of sustained outbreaks to oscillatory dynamics with periodic outbreaks synchronized over large distances. We analyze historical L. dispar population data that provide some evidence in support of this hypothesis. There is also evidence that the more recent establishment of the fungal pathogen Entomophaga maimaiga has caused a decrease in the amplitude of L. dispar outbreaks since its emergence in 1989. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is reshaping global vegetation through its impacts on plant mortality, but recruitment creates the next generation of plants and will determine the structure and composition of future communities. Recruitment depends on mean seed production, but also on the interannual variability and among-plant synchrony in seed production, the phenomenon known as mast seeding. Thus, predicting the long-term response of global vegetation dynamics to climate change requires understanding the response of masting to changing climate. Recently, data and methods have become available allowing the first assessments of long-term changes in masting. Reviewing the literature, we evaluate evidence for a fingerprint of climate change on mast seeding and discuss the drivers and impacts of these changes. We divide our discussion into the main characteristics of mast seeding: interannual variation, synchrony, temporal autocorrelation and mast frequency. Data indicate that masting patterns are changing but the direction of that change varies, likely reflecting the diversity of proximate factors underlying masting across taxa. Experiments to understand the proximate mechanisms underlying masting, in combination with the analysis of long-term datasets, will enable us to understand this observed variability in the response of masting. This will allow us to predict future shifts in masting patterns, and consequently ecosystem impacts of climate change via its impacts on masting. This article is part of the theme issue 'The ecology and evolution of synchronized seed production in plants'. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Although it has long been recognized that seed production by many forest trees varies greatly from year to year, masting (along with 'mast fruiting', 'mast seeding' and 'masting behaviour') as a concept referring to such variability is a relatively recent development. Here, I provide a brief history of masting research, highlighting some of the early contributions by foresters, zoologists and others that paved the way for the burgeoning number of studies currently being conducted by researchers around the world. Of particular current interest is work attempting to understand the proximate mechanisms, evolutionary drivers and community effects of this important ecological phenomenon as well as the ways that climate change may influence masting behaviour in the future. This article is part of the theme issue 'The ecology and evolution of synchronized seed production in plants'. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding the processes that stabilize species populations is a fundamental question in ecology and central to conservation biology. In metapopulations, dispersal can act as a 'double edged' sword for species stability by simultaneously decreasing local population variability (thereby decreasing local extinction risk) while increasing spatial synchrony (thereby increasing landscape‐level extinction risk). These dynamics may operate at different timescales, complicating efforts to assess their relative importance for long‐term stability. Here, we use a simple metapopulation model to understand how dispersal affects population variability and spatial synchrony across timescales. Our model shows that dispersal has contrasting effects at short versus long timescales on the variability and synchrony of populations. For populations that exhibit slow recovery when perturbed (i.e. under‐compensatory growth), dispersal decreases local population variability while increasing spatial synchrony at long timescales. In contrast, at short timescales dispersal increases local population variability while decreasing spatial synchrony. For populations that recover via damped oscillation when perturbed (i.e. over‐compensatory growth), the effects of dispersal are all opposite to those for populations with under‐compensatory growth, at both short and long timescales. The timescale‐dependent effect of dispersal has important implications for empirical studies. Specifically, studies conducted over short periods may only observe population variability increasing and spatial synchrony decreasing with dispersal, whereas the opposite patterns may predominate over longer periods. Our results provide novel insights on the dynamics underlying the role of dispersal and highlight the importance of time series length in empirical studies of metapopulations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ecological communities can remain stable in the face of disturbance if their constituent species have different resistance and resilience strategies. In turn, local stability scales up regionally if heterogeneous landscapes maintain spatial asynchrony across discrete populations—but not if large‐scale stressors synchronize environmental conditions and biological responses. Here, we hypothesized that droughts could drastically decrease the stability of invertebrate metapopulations both by filtering out poorly adapted species locally, and by synchronizing their dynamics across a river network. We tested this hypothesis via multivariate autoregressive state‐space (MARSS) models on spatially replicated, long‐term data describing aquatic invertebrate communities and hydrological conditions in a set of temperate, lowland streams subject to seasonal and supraseasonal drying events. This quantitative approach allowed us to assess the influence of local (flow magnitude) and network‐scale (hydrological connectivity) drivers on invertebrate long‐term trajectories, and to simulate near‐future responses to a range of drought scenarios. We found that fluctuations in species abundances were heterogeneous across communities and driven by a combination of hydrological and stochastic drivers. Among metapopulations, increasing extent of dry reaches reduced the abundance of functional groups with low resistance or resilience capacities (i.e. low ability to persist in situ or recolonize from elsewhere, respectively). Our simulations revealed that metapopulation quasi‐extinction risk for taxa vulnerable to drought increased exponentially as flowing habitats contracted within the river network, whereas the risk for taxa with resistance and resilience traits remained stable. Our results suggest that drought can be a synchronizing agent in riverscapes, potentially leading to regional quasi‐extinction of species with lower resistance and resilience abilities. Better recognition of drought‐driven synchronization may increase realism in species extinction forecasts as hydroclimatic extremes continue to intensify worldwide. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Statistical methods are required to evaluate and quantify the uncertainty in environmental processes, such as land and sea surface temperature, in a changing climate. Typically, annual harmonics are used to characterize the variation in the seasonal temperature cycle. However, an often overlooked feature of the climate seasonal cycle is the semi‐annual harmonic, which can account for a significant portion of the variance of the seasonal cycle and varies in amplitude and phase across space. Together, the spatial variation in the annual and semi‐annual harmonics can play an important role in driving processes that are tied to seasonality (e.g., ecological and agricultural processes). We propose a multivariate spatiotemporal model to quantify the spatial and temporal change in minimum and maximum temperature seasonal cycles as a function of the annual and semi‐annual harmonics. Our approach captures spatial dependence, temporal dynamics, and multivariate dependence of these harmonics through spatially and temporally varying coefficients. We apply the model to minimum and maximum temperature over North American for the years 1979–2018. Formal model inference within the Bayesian paradigm enables the identification of regions experiencing significant changes in minimum and maximum temperature seasonal cycles due to the relative effects of changes in the two harmonics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Spatial synchrony is the tendency of spatially separated populations to display similar temporal fluctuations. Synchrony affects regional ecosystem functioning, but it remains difficult to disentangle its underlying mechanisms. We leveraged regression on distance matrices and geography of synchrony to understand the processes driving synchrony of European beech masting over the European continent. Masting in beech shows distance‐decay, but significant synchrony is maintained at spatial scales of up to 1,500 km. The spatial synchrony of the weather cues that drive interannual variation in reproduction also explains the regional spatial synchrony of masting. Proximity played no apparent role in influencing beech masting synchrony after controlling for synchrony in environmental variation. Synchrony of beech reproduction shows a clear biogeographical pattern, decreasing from the northwest to southeast Europe. Synchrony networks for weather cues resemble networks for beech masting, indicating that the geographical structure of weather synchrony underlies the biogeography of masting synchrony. Our results support the hypothesis that environmental factors, the Moran effect, are key drivers of spatial synchrony in beech seed production at regional scales. The geographical patterns of regional synchronization of masting have implications for regional forest production, gene flow, carbon cycling, disease dynamics, biodiversity, and conservation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Population fluctuations of small rodents are often synchronized over larger areas (>100 km) than what could be explained by dispersal, suggesting that the synchronizing factor is weather‐related and possibly mediated through changes in food quality. Because bank vole (Myodes glareolus) populations usually peak 1 year after peaks in reproduction of the staple winter food plant bilberry (Vaccinium myrtillus), we tested for a possible link between food and spatial synchrony by comparing the synchrony in bank vole population indices and bilberry seed production indices between three study areas across about 20,000 km2 in South Norway during a four decade period (1979–2019). There were subperiods of spatial synchrony and asynchrony between the study areas in the fluctuations of bank vole numbers and bilberry seed production, with the latter part of the study period displaying more pronounced synchrony than the first and middle part. However, with a few marked exceptions, when vole fluctuations were spatially out of phase across study areas so was bilberry seed production. Thus, we conclude that bilberry seed production to a large extent explained the spatiotemporal synchronicity in bank vole population fluctuations. Although bilberry seed production seems to be a causal driver of vole fluctuations, it remains to be seen to what extent the chemical composition of bilberry plants influences vole performance. Finally, certain weather factors may still influence voles directly, or indirectly by triggering bilberry seed production. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Fisheries harvest has pervasive impacts on wild fish populations, including the truncation of size and age structures, altered population dynamics and density, and modified habitat and assemblage composition. Understanding the degree to which harvest‐induced impacts increase the sensitivity of individuals, populations and ultimately species to environmental change is essential to ensuring sustainable fisheries management in a rapidly changing world. Here we generated multiple long‐term (44–62 years), annually resolved, somatic growth chronologies of four commercially important fishes from New Zealand's coastal and shelf waters. We used these novel data to investigate how regional‐ and basin‐scale environmental variability, in concert with fishing activity, affected individual somatic growth rates and the magnitude of spatial synchrony among stocks. Changes in somatic growth can affect individual fitness and a range of population and fishery metrics such as recruitment success, maturation schedules and stock biomass. Across all species, individual growth benefited from a fishing‐induced release of density controls. For nearshore snapper and tarakihi, regional‐scale wind and temperature also additively affected growth, indicating that future climate change‐induced warming and potentially strengthened winds will initially promote the productivity of more poleward populations. Fishing increased the sensitivity of deep‐water hoki and ling growth to the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO). A forecast shift to a positive IPO phase, in concert with current harvest strategies, will likely promote individual hoki and ling growth. At the species level, historical fishing practices and IPO synergized to strengthen spatial synchrony in average growth between stocks separated by 400–600 nm of ocean. Increased spatial synchrony can, however, increase the vulnerability of stocks to deleterious stochastic events. Together, our individual‐ and species‐level results show how fishing and environmental factors can conflate to initially promote individual growth but then possibly heighten the sensitivity of stocks to environmental change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Fluctuations in population abundances are often correlated through time across multiple locations, a phenomenon known as spatial synchrony. Spatial synchrony can exhibit complex spatial structures, termed 'geographies of synchrony', that can reveal mechanisms underlying population fluctuations. However, most studies have focused on spatial extents of 10s to 100s of kilometres, making it unclear how synchrony concepts and approaches should apply to dynamics at finer spatial scales.We used network analyses, multiple regression on similarity matrices, and wavelet coherence analyses to examine micro‐scale synchrony and geographies of synchrony, over distances up to 30 m, in a serpentine grassland plant community.We found that species' populations exhibited a geography of synchrony even over such short distances. Often, well‐synchronized populations were geographically separate, a spatial structure that was shaped mainly by gopher disturbance and dispersal limitation, and to a lesser extent by relationships with other plant species. Precipitation was a significant driver of site‐ and community‐wide temporal dynamics. Gopher disturbance appeared to drive synchrony on 2‐ to 6‐year timescales, and we detected coherent fluctuations among pairs of focal plant taxa.Synthesis. Micro‐geographies of synchrony are an intriguing phenomenon that may also help us better understand community dynamics. Additionally, the related geographies of synchrony and coherent temporal dynamics among some species pairs indicate that incorporating interspecific interactions can improve understanding of population spatial synchrony. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Pulsing hydrology is a major factor affecting fish communities in tropical river‐floodplain ecosystems. Species responses to flow alteration are however poorly understood and are thus difficult to predict. Here, we investigated temporal changes in fish community structure (taxonomic and functional) in the Tonle Sap Lake, a floodplain ecosystem in Cambodia that supports the world largest inland fisheries and a UNESCO biosphere reserve. Fish catches were monitored daily at five locations around the lake between 2012 and 2015, with 53 species obtained over the course of the field study. Nine fish traits were recorded and used to characterize the functional composition of fish communities. Temporal changes in functional community structure in response to hydrological variation were assessed using multiple co‐inertia analysis (MCOA) and cross‐correlation function (CCF) approaches. Analyses revealed an abrupt shift in functional structure following extreme flood events in 2013 that included a marked decrease in large‐bodied fish at high trophic levels. Also observed were seasonal changes in the relative abundance of life‐history strategies, feeding habits, and accessory respiratory adaptations. Black fish (species that are relatively sedentary with an equilibrium‐type life‐history strategy) dominated during low‐water periods, whereas white fish (migratory species with opportunistic or periodic life‐history strategies) were dominant during high‐water periods. Dynamics of local assemblage structure were fairly synchronous spatially and were independent of the distance between locations. Species responses to the peak flood pulse were estimated to lag 1–2 months. Findings from this study indicate that management of fisheries resources in the Tonle Sap Lake should consider differential responses of species to hydrology as a function of life‐history strategies and other functional traits as well as factors that may influence time lags in population and community changes to extreme flow events. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Rodents are classical model species to investigate spatial synchrony in population fluctuation. Yet, previous studies have been strongly biased geographically toward high latitude (boreal ecosystem) and limited in their spatial scale, i.e., few sampling sites separated by a few tens of kilometers. Both aspects currently limit our understanding of rodent population dynamics across space. In this study we investigate vole population synchrony at a large spatial scale in central Europe. We used long-term breeding success of a vole-eating raptor specialist, the European kestrel, as an indicator of vole abundance. We first demonstrate that the productivity of kestrels is highly dependent on the availability of voles and as such is a good proxy of vole abundance. Secondly, we assessed the spatial synchrony of kestrel productivity and its scaling. We found that kestrel productivity fluctuated synchronously at a large spatial scale, up to a distance of 300 km. This result suggests that vole populations in central Europe varied in synchrony at large spatial scales, similarly as in northern latitudes. The most likely mechanism resulting in such large scale synchrony of vole populations is synchronized density-independent environmental conditions.

Changes in thermal regimes that disparately affect hosts and parasitoids could release hosts from biological control. When multiple natural enemy species share a host, shifts in host–parasitoid dynamics could depend on whether natural enemies interact antagonistically vs. synergistically. We investigated how biotic and abiotic factors influence the population ecology of larch casebearer (Coleophora laricella), a nonnative pest, and two imported parasitoids, Agathis pumila and Chrysocharis laricinellae, by analyzing (1) temporal dynamics in defoliation from 1962 to 2018, and (2) historical, branch‐level data on densities of larch casebearer and parasitism rates by the two imported natural enemies from 1972 to 1995. Analyses of defoliation indicated that, prior to the widespread establishment of parasitoids (1962 to ~1980), larch casebearer outbreaks occurred in 2–6 yr cycles. This pattern was followed by a >15‐yr period during which populations were at low, apparently stable densities undetectable via aerial surveys, presumably under control from parasitoids. However, since the late 1990s and despite the persistence of both parasitoids, outbreaks exhibiting unstable dynamics have occurred. Analyses of branch‐level data indicated that growth of casebearer populations, A. pumila populations, and within‐casebearer densities of C. laricinellae—a generalist whose population dynamics are likely also influenced by use of alternative hosts—were inhibited by density dependence, with high intraspecific densities in one year slowing growth into the next. Casebearer population growth was also inhibited by parasitism from A. pumila, but not C. laricinellae, and increased with warmer autumnal temperatures. Growth of A. pumila populations and within‐casebearer densities of C. laricinellae increased with casebearer densities but decreased with warmer annual maximum temperatures. Moreover, parasitism by A. pumila was associated with increased growth of within‐casebearer densities of C. laricinellae without adverse effects on its own demographics, indicating a synergistic interaction between these parasitoids. Our results indicate that warming can be associated with opposing effects between trophic levels, with deleterious effects of warming on one natural enemy species potentially being exacerbated by similar impacts on another. Coupling of such parasitoid responses with positive responses of hosts to warming might have contributed to the return of casebearer outbreaks to North America. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ecological processes, such as migration and phenology, are strongly influenced by climate variability. Studying these processes often relies on associating observations of animals and plants with climate indices, such as the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). A common characteristic of climate indices is the simultaneous emergence of opposite extremes of temperature and precipitation across continental scales, known as climate dipoles. The role of climate dipoles in shaping ecological and evolutionary processes has been largely overlooked. We review emerging evidence that climate dipoles can entrain species dynamics and offer a framework for identifying ecological dipoles using broad-scale biological data. Given future changes in climatic and atmospheric processes, climate and ecological dipoles are likely to shift in their intensity, distribution, and timing. Climate variability is cataloged using climate indices that ecologists rely on to study phenology, migration, and population dynamics. Climate dipoles are a common characteristic of climate variability that emerge in terrestrial and marine systems as contrasting patterns in anomalies of temperature or precipitation appearing at two different geographic locations at the same time. Climate dipoles have the potential to entrain continent-wide processes ranging from bird migration to plant reproduction and produce ecological dipoles. Ecological dipoles can be identified by applying approaches of space–time analysis to biological and climatological observations collected at continental scales. Given the altered patterns of atmospheric processes, increasing synchrony of weather, and land-use-driven changes in climate, it is likely that climate and ecological dipoles will shift dramatically in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We studied daily spawning periodicity of a nest‐building species, bluehead chub (Nocomis leptocephalus), and a nest associate, yellowfin shiner (Notropis lutipinnis), in three streams in the upper Piedmont region of South Carolina, USA. Field observations were conducted for 89 consecutive days in 2016 by recording the number of active nests and environmental variables. A total of 71 nests were located across study streams; bluhead chub and yellowfin shiner spawned between April and June. Spawning was observed periodically at intervals of 4–6 days within the same stream and across different streams, indicating broad‐scale influences of the same environmental factors leading to synchrony. A generalized linear auto‐regressive and moving average model showed that the periodic spawning pattern was likely caused by changes in water temperature, with effects of water level varying by stream. Specifically, spawning was triggered by a short‐term (2‐day) increase in water temperature and was observed under stable flow conditions (i.e. a lack of precipitation). This study showed that spawning periodicity of bluehead chub and yellowfin shiner tracked daily variation in in‐stream conditions, indicating that their reproduction might be affected by anthropogenic disturbances that affect the rate of change in thermal and flow regimes at the fine temporal scale (e.g. hydroelectric dams and impervious cover). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We used observation data from major hawk-watch sites in northeastern North America to assess multiyear cycles in breeding productivity of the Northern Harrier (Circus hudsonius). We found that autumn totals of migrating harriers for 1983–2017 autocorrelated positively at the 4-yr lag for interior, but not Atlantic coastal, counts. The autocorrelation was especially high for harriers counted in October. The autumn counts of south-bound harriers were not correlated with counts of north-bound harriers in the previous spring. Interannual differences in atmospheric circulation during migration in 1983–2017, as expressed by the autumn North Atlantic Oscillation Index, correlated with the autumn harrier counts but did not have a 4-yr cycle. The temporal pattern revealed in this study should be considered when using counts of autumn migrants to infer regional population trends. Future research could focus on the cause of the cyclic pattern in harrier numbers. One obvious question concerns the relationship between spring populations of meadow voles (Microtus pennsylvanicus), which are important prey for harriers during breeding, and harrier numbers reported during the subsequent autumn migration. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Allee threshold, the critical population density separating growth from decline in populations experiencing strong Allee effects, can vary over space and time but few empirical studies have examined this variation. A lack of geographically extensive, long-term studies on low density population dynamics makes studying variability in Allee effects difficult. We used North American gypsy moth population data from 1996 to 2016 to quantify Allee thresholds in 11 regions of the invasion front. Allee thresholds spanned a continuum from being undetectable due to strong population growth at all densities, to being unmeasurable because populations declined across all densities. The lag-1 temporal autocorrelation in Allee thresholds tended to be negative and spatial synchrony in Allee thresholds extended no further than adjacent regions. This work furthers understanding of spatiotemporal variation in Allee effects using extensive empirical data at the range edge of an invasive insect. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many species exhibit high‐amplitude, extinction‐prone cycles, for instance due to resource enrichment (called the paradox of enrichment). How do such species manage to persist? One possibility is metapopulation dynamics, but it is unclear if these can mitigate the paradox of enrichment. The paradox of enrichment might increase local population extinction rates, and might also increase the spatial synchrony of population fluctuations because population cycles are easily synchronized by even low rates of dispersal. Spatially‐synchronous population fluctuations would leave no scope for rescue effects, and spatially‐synchronous local extinctions would leave no source for recolonization. We conducted a protist microcosm experiment to test how dispersal and enrichment affect the persistence of predator–prey metapopulations by altering spatial synchrony. We assembled 54, 4‐patch metapopulations of the protist predator Euplotes patella and its protist prey Tetrahymena pyriformis. Each metapopulation experienced one of nine dispersal rates, crossed with one of six enrichment levels. We tested the effects of enrichment and dispersal on predator–prey cycle amplitude, predator population extinction risk, spatial synchrony of predator population fluctuations, and predator metapopulation persistence time. Enrichment increased predator–prey cycle amplitude but had no detectable effect on population extinction risk. Dispersal had no effect on predator–prey cycle amplitude. Spatial synchrony increased with enrichment and dispersal. Metapopulation persistence decreased with enrichment and spatial synchrony. We conclude that increasing enrichment reduced metapopulation persistence primarily by increasing spatial synchrony of local extinctions, rather than by increasing their frequency. These results highlight the importance of synchrony‐preventing mechanisms for metapopulation persistence. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We examine the long-term co-occurrence of long-tailed ducks (Clangula hyemalis) and whitewinged scoters (Melanitta fusca) wintering at the Nantucket Shoals off Massachusetts, USA, and ask: (1) What oceanographic features attract these aggregations? (2) How are distributions of prey and sea ducks related to one another? and (3) What is the explanation for the spatial association between these two species? A winter concentration of long-tailed ducks on the order of 3 x 105 birds have been present near Nantucket Island and the Nantucket Shoals since the 1970s, and there is evidence of some concentration there since the late 1800s. Despite the difference in diet, the two duck species overlap in spatial distribution in relation to a prominent tidal front on the west side of Nantucket Shoals where nested swarms of pelagic amphipods and massive clam beds occur in persistent broadscale concentrations. Gammarid amphipods were collected seasonally by bongo tows over 39 yr (1977–2016), and Atlantic surf clams and ocean quahogs were collected by hydraulic dredge over a 34-yr timescale (1982–2016). Long-tailed ducks and whitewinged scoters were counted during systematic low-level aerial surveys. Both long-tailed ducks and white-winged scoters associated with amphipod and clam aggregations at similar scales, and tracked amphipod and clam concentrations at larger spatial scales, up to ~30 km. These multi-scalar nested associations suggest that the sea ducks foraged within a hierarchical patch system structured by the tidal regime, and concentrated in areas of spatially anchored recurring prey, with highest densities in southwest areas. Enhanced concentrations of prey within a relatively narrow zone on Nantucket Shoals provide a predictable food resource to wintering sea ducks whose populations are in decline. As supported by our generalized additive models, we propose that the positive spatial associations among these species are at least partly explained by local enhancement or facilitation, whereby each species of duck derives foraging benefit from noting the location of aggregations of the other. This interaction will be important to the designation of marine protected areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• We quantified long-term tree growth coherence at subcontinental scales. • Subtropical forests' tree growth was strongly affected by ENSO. • Tree growth synchrony followed a west-east dipole pattern across subtropical China. • Increasing ENSO variability was tightly linked to rising tree growth synchrony. • Projected rise in ENSO variability may potentially destabilize forest ecosystems. Rising El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability is expected to influence Earth's forest ecosystems, through changes in how coordinated annual tree growth is across large spatiotemporal scales. However, the mechanisms by which changes in ENSO variability affect tree growth in subtropical forests remains poorly understood. We use a newly built tree ring network collected from 4,028 trees at 144 forest locations across East Asian subtropical forests (EASF), to assess long-term influences of ENSO on the spatiotemporal variability in tree radial growth across China at subcontinental scales (∼2,000 km). Our results demonstrate a west-east dipole pattern of synchronized tree growth in EASF tree populations, with positive growth responses to El Nino in southeastern China, and negative growth responses in southwestern China, likely due to different patterns in moisture limitation. Specifically, the likely contrasting effects of ENSO on drought limitation along a longitudinal gradient resulted in trees that grew more in El Niño years in eastern populations, but less in western populations. Our results also show that increasingly severe El Niño/La Niña years have caused a sharp rise in tree growth coherence over the past 150 years in these moisture-limited populations. Increasing ENSO variability, as is expected with climate change, may potentially further destabilize subtropical forest ecosystems by synchronizing tree growth to an unprecedented level, with unknown consequences for forest stability and resilience. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We used 37 years of North American Breeding Bird Surveys to test for effects of periodical cicada (Magicicada spp.) emergences on the abundance and spatial synchrony of 24 species of avian predators in hardwood forests of the eastern United States. Fifteen (63%) of the bird species exhibited numerical changes in abundance apparently associated with emergences of the local periodical cicada brood, and intraspecific spatial synchrony of bird abundance was significantly greater between populations sharing the same cicada brood than between populations in the ranges of different broods. Species exhibited at least four partially overlapping temporal patterns. (I) Cuckoos (Coccyzus spp.) occurred in high numbers only during emergence years and subsequently declined in abundance. (2) Red-bellied Woodpeckers (Melanerpes carolinus), Blue Jays (Cyanocitta cristata), Common Grackles (Quiscalus quiscula), and Brown-headed Cowbirds (Molothrus ater) increased significantly 1-3 years following emergences and then declined. (3) Red-headed Woodpeckers (Melanerpes erythrocephalus), American Crows (Corvus brachyrynchos), Tufted Titmice (Baeolophus bicolor), Gray Catbirds (Dumetella carolinensis), and Brown Thrashers (Toxostoma rufum) were found in significantly low numbers during emergence years, underwent significant numerical increases in the following year, and then stabilized. (4) Wood Thrushes (Hylocichla mustelina), Northern Mockingbirds (Mimus polyglottos), Northern Cardinals (Cardinalis cardinalis), and House Sparrows (Passer domesticus) exhibited significantly deviant population numbers 1-2 years prior to emergences, below the long-term mean in the first two species and above the long-term mean in the latter two. These results suggest that the pulses of resources available at 13- or 17-year intervals when periodical cicadas emerge have significant demographic effects on key avian predators, mostly during or immediately after emergences, but in some cases apparently years following emergence events.

Many species exhibit widespread spatial synchrony in population fluctuations. This pattern is of great ecological interest and can be a source of concern when the species is rare or endangered. Both dispersal and spatial correlations in the environment have been implicated as possible causes of this pattern, but these two factors have rarely been studied in combination. We develop a spatially structured population model, simple enough to obtain analytic solutions for the population correlation, that incorporates both dispersal and environmental correlation. We ask whether these two synchronizing factors contribute additively to the total spatial population covariance. We find that there is always an interaction between these two factors and that this interaction is small only when one or both of the environmental correlation and the dispersal rate are small. The interaction is opposite in sign to the environmental correlation; so, in the normal case of positive environmental correlation across sites, the population synchrony will be lower than predicted by simply adding the effects of dispersal and environmental correlation. We also find that population synchrony declines as the strength of population regulation increases. These results indicate that dispersal and environmental correlation need to be considered in combination as explanations for observed patterns of population synchrony.

The 'Moran effect' predicts that dynamics of populations of a species are synchronized over similar distances as their environmental drivers. Strong population synchrony reduces species viability, but spatial heterogeneity in density dependence, the environment, or its ecological responses may decouple dynamics in space, preventing extinctions. How such heterogeneity buffers impacts of global change on large‐scale population dynamics is not well studied. Here, we show that spatially autocorrelated fluctuations in annual winter weather synchronize wild reindeer dynamics across high‐Arctic Svalbard, while, paradoxically, spatial variation in winter climate trends contribute to diverging local population trajectories. Warmer summers have improved the carrying capacity and apparently led to increased total reindeer abundance. However, fluctuations in population size seem mainly driven by negative effects of stochastic winter rain‐on‐snow (ROS) events causing icing, with strongest effects at high densities. Count data for 10 reindeer populations 8–324 km apart suggested that density‐dependent ROS effects contributed to synchrony in population dynamics, mainly through spatially autocorrelated mortality. By comparing one coastal and one 'continental' reindeer population over four decades, we show that locally contrasting abundance trends can arise from spatial differences in climate change and responses to weather. The coastal population experienced a larger increase in ROS, and a stronger density‐dependent ROS effect on population growth rates, than the continental population. In contrast, the latter experienced stronger summer warming and showed the strongest positive response to summer temperatures. Accordingly, contrasting net effects of a recent climate regime shift—with increased ROS and harsher winters, yet higher summer temperatures and improved carrying capacity—led to negative and positive abundance trends in the coastal and continental population respectively. Thus, synchronized population fluctuations by climatic drivers can be buffered by spatial heterogeneity in the same drivers, as well as in the ecological responses, averaging out climate change effects at larger spatial scales. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Although spatial and temporal variation in ecological properties has been well‐studied, crucial knowledge gaps remain for studies conducted at macroscales and for ecosystem properties related to material and energy. We test four propositions of spatial and temporal variation in ecosystem properties within a macroscale (1000 km's) extent. We fit Bayesian hierarchical models to thousands of observations from over two decades to quantify four components of variation – spatial (local and regional) and temporal (local and coherent); and to model their drivers. We found strong support for three propositions: (1) spatial variation at local and regional scales are large and roughly equal, (2) annual temporal variation is mostly local rather than coherent, and, (3) spatial variation exceeds temporal variation. Our findings imply that predicting ecosystem responses to environmental changes at macroscales requires consideration of the dominant spatial signals at both local and regional scales that may overwhelm temporal signals. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]