Search

The ICES Workshop on ICES reference points (WKREF2) was tasked review the WKREF1 report and based on the outcome develop updated guidelines for the ICES reference points system and recommendations for ACOM consideration. The WKREF1 report has suggested 5 key recommendations to simplify and harmonise the ICES reference points framework representing a major change to the current guidelines. At WKREF2, we detailed discussions and four key concerns were raised about the proposed approach. The first related to the simplification of rules to define Blim. Around two thirds of category 1 stocks would end up as WKREF1 “Blim Type 2” where Blim would be set as a fraction of B0. The Allee effect or “depensation” maybe more important than previously thought and should be furthered explored for ICES stocks since it has important consequences for Blim. A number of challenges and issues around defining Blim using the current guidelines were documented. Some suggestions on improvement criteria were discussed including using classifiers to define spasmodic stocks and using change point algorithms to address non-stationary productivity regimes. However, further work is need to make these approaches operational and there was no consensus that the WKREF1 Blim types should replace the current guidelines.WKREF1 recommended that the FMSY proxy should be based on a biological proxies and should be less than the deterministic FMSY. It was pointed out that the stochastic FMSY estimated in EqSim for example, is lower than the deterministic FMSY and that the current guidelines ensure that the FMSY should not pose a more than 5% risk to Blim. A large amount of work described in WD 1 was carried out to develop an MSE framework to consistency and robustness test a candidate reference point system for North East Atlantic stocks. However, WKREF2 recommended that further work needs to be carried out to condition and test the simulation framework before the conclusions could be adopted by ICES and incorporated into the guidelines.A number of considerations for defining MSY related reference points were discussed including using model validation and prediction skill to ensure that ICES provide robust and credible ad-vice. There is evidence that density dependence (DD) is important in the majority of ICES stocks (68% in recruitment and 54% in growth). The correct prediction of the shape and strength of density-dependence in productivity is key to predicting future stock development and providing the best possible long-term fisheries management advice. A suggested approach to use surplus production models (SPMs) to account for DD in FMSY was suggested and discussed but there was no consensus on whether that approach was appropriate. There was consensus that the FECO approach as a means of adapting target fishing mortality to medium-term changes in productivity should be included in the guidelines subject to a benchmark and ACOM approval.While WKREF1 and 2 focused mainly on Category 1 stocks ToR c) called for a “simplified and harmonised set of guidelines for estimating MSY and precautionary reference points applicable in the advice framework across various ICES stock categories.” Ideally the ICES assessment categories should provide equivalent risk across all stocks. This issue was discussed but no recommendations emerged.There was no consensus a revised reference point framework was proposed at WKREF2. However, it was agreed that it should be presented here for further discussion at ACOM and other fora. The key feature of the suggested approach is that the stock status evaluation is treated independent of the Advice Rule (AR). The main feature of the system is that the biomass trigger is not linked to a stock status evaluation, it is linked to the expected biomass when fishing at the target fishing mortality, in contrast to the current ICES approach. It also entailed that FMSY would also become an upper limit of fishing mortality and that the advised fishing mortality would be set at or lower than that level. WKREF2 did not discuss what to do in situations where SSB< Blim or alternative forms of HCR for the advice rule. Building community understanding and consensus around simplified and harmonised guidelines has yet to be achieved. A further workshop WKREF3 will be required to achieve that aim. The report includes 6 recommendations for ACOM consideration.

The inter-benchmark IBPSandeel evaluated the use of density-dependent survey catchability to reduce retrospective patterns in the assessment of sandeel in area 2r and 3r. IBPSandeel con-cluded that the method proposed is appropriate and can be applied to provide advice on these two stocks.The sandeel advice on fishing opportunities is highly influenced by good incoming year classes. High uncertainty is usually associated with estimation of high recruitments, which justified the implementation of an Fcap strategy. However, sandeel assessments in 2r and 3r have also strong retrospective patterns in recruitment (i.e. the model has a tendency to overestimate recruitment in the terminal year) which are not properly accounted by the current Fcap.Sandeel recruitment in 2019 is estimated to be high throughout the entire North Sea, including areas 2r and 3r. For this reason, an adjustment to the assessment model was proposed to provide more reliable estimates of recruitment in the terminal year. A power function was implemented in the assessment of sandeel 2r and 3r to capture density-dependency catchability of age 0 fish in the survey. The adjusted models provided downward correction of the terminal year recruit-ment, which is considered more reliable as suggested by the reduced Mohn's rho statistic, while estimates of stock dynamics (SSB and R) remained highly consistent with the previous assess-ment.

The ICES herring assessment working group (HAWG) met on an interactive virtual platform for eight days in March 2020 to assess the state of five herring stocks and three sprat stocks. HAWG also provided advice for four sandeel stocks but reported on those prior to this meeting in February. The working group conducted update assessments for the five herring stocks. An analytical assessment was performed for the combined North Sea and Division 3.a sprat, and a data limited assessment (ICES category 3) was conducted for English Channel sprat (spr.27.7de). The North Sea autumn spawning herring (her.27.3a47d) SSB in 2019 was estimated at 1.7 mill tonnes while F2–6 in 2019 was estimated at 0.18, which is below FMSY. Recruitment in 2019 is comparable to the 2018 value and remains within the low recruitment regime observed since 2015. Year classes since 2002 are estimated to be consistently weak with year classes 2014 and 2016 some of the weakest on record. ICES considers that the stock is still in a low productivity phase.The Western Baltic spring-spawning herring (her.27.20-24) assessment was updated. The SSB and recruitment in 2019 are record low. SSB is estimated to be around 56 600 tonnes which is below both Bpa and Blim. Recruitment has been low since 2006 and it has been further deteriorating with time. Fishing mortality has decrease in 2019 to 0.382 but is still well above FMSY (0.31). The stock has decreased consistently during the second half of the 2000s and given the continued low recruitments the stock is not able to recover above Blim unless a drastic reduction in fishing effort is applied.The Celtic Sea autumn and winter spawning stock (her.27.irls) is estimated to be at a very low level. SSB is currently estimated to be at the lowest level in the time-series and has been below Blim (34 000 t) since 2016. Mean F(2–5 rings) was estimated at 0.49 in 2019, having decreased from the peak of 1.15 in 2017. Recruitment has been consistently below average from 2013-2018. Recruitment in 2019 is estimated to be above average. The assessment of the combined stocks of herring in 6.aN and 6.aS/7.b, c (her.27.6a7bc) went through an interbenchmark procedure in 2019 and the advice is based on trends from an analytical assessment. SSB and recruitment have been declining since around 2000 and are currently at the lowest level in the time-series. Fishing mortality has reduced since 2016 when catches have been limited to a scientific monitoring TAC but recovery of the stock is hampered by the very low recruitment.Irish Sea autumn spawning herring (her.27.nirs) assessment shows a stable SSB in 2019 compared to previous years at around 24 700 tonnes. The stock has experienced large incoming year classes in recent years. Fishing mortality (F4–6) is estimated at 0.18, one of the lowest in the timeseries and below FMSY (0.266). Catches have been relatively stable since the 1980s, and close to the TAC in recent years. North Sea and 3.a Sprat (spr.27.3a4) were combined into a single assessment unit during the 2018 benchmark. Perception of the status of the stock is dominated by the dynamics in Subarea 4 where most of the catches occur. Despite the fact that fishing mortality in the last years has fluctuated at high levels between 0.6–2.2, recruitments slightly but consistently above the average during recent years have contributed to an increase in SSB well above MSY Bescapement. The estimates for 2020 show an SSB of 266 000 t which is more than double of Bpa (125 000 t).Catch advice for sprat in the English Channel (7.d, e) (spr.27.7de) was based on criteria for an ICES category 3-based method. Data available are landings and a short time-series of acoustic biomass (2013–2019). The acoustic biomass has fluctuated over time and the 2019 biomass has increased from the 2018 estimate. The HAWG reviewed the assessments performed on four sandeel stocks and the related advice of these stocks. Section 9 of this report contains the assessments of sandeel in Division 3.a and Subarea 4. Standard issues such as the quality and availability of data, estimating the amounts of discarded fish, availability of data through industry surveys and scientific advances particularly with respect to stock discrimination relevant to small pelagic fish were discussed. All data and scripts used to perform the assessments and the forecast calculations are available at https://github.com/ICES-dk/wg_HAWG and accessible to anyone.

The Workshop on guidelines and methods for the evaluation of rebuilding plans (WKREBUILD) chaired by Vanessa Trijoulet (Denmark) and Martin Pastoors (Netherlands) met from 24 to 28 February 2020. The workshop attracted 27 participants from the US, Canada, Europe and FAO. When stocks are estimated to be below Blim1 and there is no perceived possibility of rebuilding above Blim within the time-frame of a short-term forecast, ICES has regularly recommended zero catch in combination with the development of a rebuilding plan. A review was carried out on the international experience on the development, evaluation and implementation of rebuilding plans for fisheries management in the Northeast Atlantic and in other fora around the world. In the Northeast Atlantic, rebuilding plans have been implemented in the past (e.g. the cod recovery plans of the early 2000s) but ICES has played a limited role in evaluating the performance of such recovery plans and does not have the tools or criteria to evaluate such plans. Recently, when a rebuilding plan for herring in 6.a 7.bc was submitted to ICES for evaluation, ICES refrained from providing such an evaluation. In the US and Canadian approaches, the legal framework determines the triggering and required elements of rebuilding plans. Such a legal imperative does not exist in the Northeast Atlantic. Nevertheless, the US and Canadian experiences provided useful elements that could be included in establishing ICES approach to rebuilding plans. Several case studies were presented on potential tools for the evaluation of rebuilding plans. Particular attention was given to evaluating options for harvest control rule options of such a plan. The tools focused mostly on short to medium term explorations of the probability of achieving a rebuilding of stocks. Because rebuilding plan evaluations need to be ready and available at short-notice when required, it was concluded that relatively standardized tools (i.e. packages or compiled code) to carry out such evaluations would be preferable over custommade evaluation tools. In addition, certain modelling considerations were highlighted as important such as realistic assumptions of productivity, uncertainty, bias in assessments and implementation error and the possibility of estimating the probability of achieving a rebuilding of stocks.Criteria for the acceptability of rebuilding plans will require an agreed Limit Reference Point (LRP) for initiating a rebuilding plan, definition of targets for fishing mortality or stock biomass, time-frames and the acceptable probabilities whether the rebuilding targets have been achieved. All of these should take into account realistic levels of uncertainty and being consistent with international best (scientific) practices. Although it was recognized that Blim would be the most likely candidate LRP triggering a rebuilding plan, the current approach in ICES for the determination of Blim was questioned during the workshop because it requires a more or less subjective classification of the stock-recruitment pairs into different types. In other regions, the LRP is often set as a certain proportion of the SSB at maximum sustainable yield (BMSY), e.g. 40% BMSY. If changes in productivity have been experienced in recent years at these are taken into account when estimating MSY reference points, the proportion of BMSY approach would likely lead to greater changes in the estimated value of LRP than the current ICES procedures used to estimate Blim, which rely on stock-recruitment pairs or definition of the lowest observed biomass (Bloss). This could have a large impact on the rebuilding target for stocks that experience changes in productivity regimes. Some concerns were raised regarding the often small distance between Blim and MSY Btrigger2 reference points for ICES stocks in comparison to the distance between trigger and limit in other jurisdictions. MSY Btrigger could therefore represent a late trigger to start decreasing fishing mortality when SSB is decreasing. The workshop recommended a future workshop on the revision of the procedure to estimate reference points within the ICES framework.An estimate of the minimum time (TMIN) by which rebuilding may be expected to be achieved, could be calculated by assuming zero catch and should be used as baseline for comparison with other rebuilding scenarios. The maximum time for rebuilding in the US and New Zealand is set to TMAX = 2 * TMIN or to TMIN plus one generation time1 (average length of time between when an individual is born and the birth of its offspring NRC (2014)). While the workshop did not arrive at an overall agreement on a default value for TMAX, it was suggested that TMAX = 2 * TMIN could be explored as a potential bounding on the rebuilding period, even though this should be subject to scientific analysis of potential effects on the stock in question. The workshop generated a guidance table summarizing the best practices for evaluation of rebuilding plans against the potential criteria of acceptability. The guidance table includes elements such as estimation of reference points, time-frames for rebuilding, rebuilding targets, handling uncertainties and bias, probability of achieving rebuilding targets and visualizing results. The workshop recommended that a follow-up workshop (WKREBUILD2) be organized for testing the guidelines with actual test cases, with the aim of defining more specific criteria and guidelines, i.e. learning by doing. Some of the elements that were discussed in the workshop but that have not (yet) entered the guidelines for evaluation of rebuilding plans are socio-economic trade-offs (e.g. between fast and slow rebuilding), mixed fisheries aspects (e.g. unavoidable bycatch due to mixed fisheries) and elements in rebuilding plans other than the HCR part (e.g. monitoring to improve the knowledge base). Most of the discussion at WKREBUILD was centred on stocks with analytical assessments (Category 1+2). Identifying when a data limited stock is in need of rebuilding (or has rebuilt) and how to evaluate rebuilding plan options for such stocks would likely require a separate process.

Sandeel in the North Sea is a priced commercial species and an ecological key species acting as prey for numerous predators from birds, through fish, to sea mammals. Sandeel is in particular important to the Danish fishery and fishmeal industry. However, large fluctuations in stock size and a complicated system of sub areas, where several have been deemed data poor by ICES, have been a challenge for the dependent industry. The main aim of the present project was to provide a scientific basis for making a re-evaluation of the models and management regime used by ICES to provide advice for sandeel in the North Sea. This required (i) reviewing the literature to identify holes in our basic knowledge, (ii) investigating transport of sandeel larvae between fishing grounds and differences in population dynamics and productivity to guide decisions regarding management areas, (iii) developing a new survey index from the existing sandeel dredge survey, and (iv) make an effort to improve existing stock assessment models where possible. Approximately half way through the project period, the ICES benchmark for sandeel took place. Here, all new results from the project was presented and used to facilitate a number of changes and improvements of the models and management regime.After the benchmark the project carried on to further underpin some of the decision made during the benchmark meeting. These included conducting otolith analyses and population genetics, revealing novel insight, and the factual area divisions decided at the benchmark meeting was specifically evaluated using larval drift simulations. Studies of environmental drivers of sandeel recruitment and productivity were also finalized during the second half of the project. The results revealed that the productivity of forage fish in the North Sea in general (sandeel included) has declined over time, explaining why the high fishing mortalities experienced during the 1990s cannot be maintained today. Correlative links were found between environmental variability and sandeel recruitment, suggesting that recruitment forecasting is potentially possible. This work has therefore been presented before the members of the ICES WKS2D working group. This group is now planning to test an operational forecasting model in the coming years. Lastly, the process of evaluating a range of management strategies was initiated to support the ongoing process of developing a long-term management plan. The MSE work is still ongoing and the continuousness of this work has been ensured by a new project initiated in 2017.

The Working Group on Widely Distributed Stocks (WGWIDE) reports on the status and considerations for management of Northeast-Atlantic mackerel, blue whiting, Western and North Sea horse mackerel, Northeast-Atlantic boarfish, Norwegian spring-spawning herring, striped red mullet (Subareas 6, 8 and Divisions 7.a-c, e-k and 9.a), and red gurnard (Subareas 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, and 8) stocks. Northeast-Atlantic (NEA) Mackerel. This species is widely distributed throughout the ICES area and currently supports one of the most valuable European fisheries. Mackerel is fished by a variety of fleets from many countries (ranging from open boats using handlines on the Iberian coasts to large freezer trawlers and Refrigerated Sea Water (RSW) vessels in the Northern Area). The assessment methodology was modified during the 2019 inter-benchmark process. The 2019 WGWIDE assessment was an update of the benchmarked assessment incorporating a new year for the catch information, for all surveys (egg survey, IESSNS survey and recruitment index) and for the RFID tagging recapture. After a strong increase from the late 2000s to 2014, the SSB has been declining since 2015, but remains at high levels (well above MSY Btrigger), The estimated fishing mortality has been steadily declining since the mid-2000s, and is now estimated to be close to FMSY. This decrease of the fishing mortality, while the stock has been sustaining high catches (consistently in excess to ICES advice) is explained by a succession of good recruitments, indicating a current high productivity for this stock. Blue Whiting. This pelagic gadoid is widely distributed in the eastern part of the North Atlantic. The assessment this year followed the Stock Annex based the conclusions from the Inter-Benchmark Protocol of Blue Whiting (IBPBLW 2016). The method for calculating mean weight at age for the preliminary (2019) was however changed, such that the observed values were used. Previously, a three year average was used. Most of the annual catches are taken in the first halfyear, which makes it possible to use preliminary catches for 2019 in the assessment. This is done to reduce the effect of potential biases from the single survey used for this assessment. The SSB of the stock is large but declining since 2018. F has been reduced in recent years, but is still above FMSY. Recruitments in 2017–2019 are estimated to be low, following a period of high recruitments. Western Horse Mackerel. This species is widely distributed throughout the Northeast Atlantic: it spawns in the Bay of Biscay, and in UK and Irish waters; after spawning, parts of the stock migrate northwards into the Norwegian Sea and the North Sea. The stock is assessed using the Stock Synthesis integrated assessment model. The 2019 assessment is an update of the benchmark assessment with the inclusion of the 2018 data. According to the assessment results, the 20154-2018 recruitment estimates are the highest observed since 2008 (and higher than the geometric mean estimated over the years 1983–2018). Fishing mortality since 2012 has been decreasing overall, dropping to low values in 2015–2018 due to lower catches and a reduced proportion of fraction of the adult population in the exploited stock; it is however currently above FMSY. SSB in 2017 was estimated as the lowest in the time-series, below the limit reference point and is just above in 2018. The updated assessment shows the same trend as the previous ones, but rescales the absolute level of SSB and F over the most recent decade and, although this years’ revision is smaller, this indicates that there is still considerable uncertainty associated with it. An interbenchmark workshop occurred prior to the 2019 assessment working group: the workshop revised the biomass reference points from 911587t to 1168272t for MSYBtrigger and 0.108 to 0.074 for FMSY, hence the significant drop in adviceNorth Sea Horse Mackerel. After being benchmarked in January 2017, the CGFS and NS-IBTS survey indices were modelled with a zero-inflated model to produce a combined index. The observed trend in the last decade suggests that the stock is still at a low level in comparison with values earlier in the time-series. In 2017, the survey index showed a declining trend, and the stock remained at a low level in 2018. The result of the Length-Based Methods to estimate proxy MSY reference points for North Sea Horse Mackerel indicated that in 2018 fishing mortality was slightly above FMSY. Northeast Atlantic Boarfish. This is a small, pelagic, planktivorous, shoaling species, found at depths of 0 to 600 m. The species is widely distributed from Norway to Senegal. The directed fishery for boarfish in the NEA is a relatively new one with large catches during the early 2000s when the fishery was unregulated. Catches have reduced significantly since 2012 to the current level. Annual catch advice is provided using the data limited category 3 approach based on output from an exploratory Bayesian surplus production assessment model. The assessment model utilises catch data, an acoustic survey estimate of stock size and indices from a number of bottom-trawl surveys. The current assessment indicates that biomass peaked in 2012 at twice the historic mean before a rapid decline until 2014. Since this time the biomass level has been relatively stable. Norwegian Spring Spawning Herring. This is one of the largest herring stocks in the world. It is highly migratory and distributed throughout large parts of the NE Atlantic. This stock was benchmarked in 2016 (WKPELA). The assessment model introduced in the benchmark (XSAM), incorporates uncertainty in the input data, and has been used to provide advice after the benchmark. The SSB on 1 January 2019 is estimated by XSAM to be above Bpa (3.184 million t). The stock is declining and there is an upward revision of SSB for later years in this year’s assessment. The revision is, however, within the confidence limits of the model. Fishing mortality in 2018 is estimated to be below the management plan F that was used to give advice for 2018. A new management plan was implemented for the 2019 advisory year. Striped Red Mullet in North Sea, Bay of Biscay, Southern Celtic Seas, Atlantic Iberian Waters. This stock has been considered by WGWIDE since 2016. It is a category 5 stock without information on abundance or exploitation in relation to proxy reference points and indicators, and the evaluation is based on commercial landings. A time series of biological sampling of catches is being developed, and it may be possible to produce an analytical assessment in the near future, The advice for this stock, following the ICES precautionary approach, was given in 2017 for 2018, 2019 and 2020. Northeast-Atlantic Red Gurnard. This stock was first considered by WGWIDE in 2016, and this represents the second time the group has advised upon it. This is a category 6 stock, with large uncertainties in landings data due to poor resolution at the species level. Landings have fluctuated without trend since 2006, and discards remain significant –over 90% of catch in some cases. There remains no indication of where fishing mortality is relative to proxies and no stock indicators, and the evaluation is based on commercial landings, given the caveat that they will be incomplete. Advice for this stock is provided on the basis of the ICES precautionary approach for 2020 and 2021.

The purpose of the meeting was to bring up to date the methodologies and technical specifications that should be incorporated in Management Strategy Evaluation (MSE) work in ICES. The workshop was tasked with reviewing recent methodological and practical MSE work conducted in ICES and around the world, as well as the guidelines provided by the 2013 ICES Workshop on Guidelines for Management Strategy Evaluations (WKGMSE). The Terms of Reference indicated that the revision should include all aspects involved in MSE, while paying specific attention to several issues that had been identified through ICES practice. The Terms of Reference also requested WKGMSE 2 to consider how best to disseminate the guidelines to experts within the ICES community and the need for training courses. The workshop addressed all its Terms of Reference. The main results of the workshop are the revised MSE guidelines, as well as recommendations in relation to the ICES criterion for defining a management strategy as precautionary and in relation to the evaluation and advice on rebuilding strategies.

The Danish Fisher-Researcher-Network is organized by the trade organizations: The Danish Fisheries Association Producer Organization and the Danish Pelagic Producers Organization as well as the research institute, DTU Aqua. The European Maritime and Fisheries Fund and the Fisheries Agency finance the project.The purpose of the project is to support networking activities that bring the executive Danish fisheries industry and operational fisheries research closer together through fisher-researcher alliances. The idea is to target research against the practical challenges in the fishing industry and to streamline the development of business and ease of generation through the synergy arising from dialogue, common problem formulation and resolution. The project will also streamline and professionalize the work of the various Thematic and Regional Advisory Councils with Danish interests in collaboration between the fishing industry and DTU Aqua experts before and during the meetings.The fishing industry is faced with ever-increasing challenges in terms of regulatory requirements in the context of the Common Fisheries Policy and its national implementation, consumer requirements for fishing activities and environmental impact, as well as an ecosystem in dynamic transformation that offers changing fishing opportunities. In order to continue the development of profitable and sustainable fisheries, it is necessary to exchange experiences about fisheries and management, identify problems, elaborate ideas for solutions and formulate projects for testing ideas. Since solutions require knowledge from many areas, networking between fisheries, research and management is necessary. In order to ensure the change of generations in modern Danish fishing, the project will also work in the field of teaching apprenticeships and knowledge sharing between businesses as well as course and internship in fishery for students in Aquatic Science and Technology (AST).The project has been the first phase of so far two network initiatives involving workshops, working groups, experience exchange, idea gathering, knowledge sharing, courses, web dissemination and advisory council work in collaboration between fishermen and apprentices, industry associations, as well as researchers and students.The network has established a platform for knowledge sharing www.fisker-forsker.dk. The network's events and results have been regularly communicated to the fishermen through a wide range of articles, reports, interviews and videos on this and other media.The primary contact for dialogue and knowledge sharing between fishermen and researchers has been through more than 20 targeted workshops and dialogue meetings at DTU as well as in local fisheries organizations. In addition, 3 completed teaching initiatives for students at the Fisheries School as well as courses for AST masters students with project practice on fishing boats during the studies contributed to the transfer of knowledge at generational change.It has been the goal to form fisherman-researcher alliances on concrete collaborative projects for the development of Danish fisheries. Through screening of more than 30 ideas from the fishing industry, 9 concrete collaborative projects have been established with proposals for support by the EMFF. The projects have ranged from development self-management in brown shrimp fisheries over analyzes of cod shedding for cod for exploitation of fish-gathered data in mackerel and poached fish The primary contact for dialogue and knowledge sharing between fishermen and researchers has been through more than 20 targeted workshops and dialogue meetings at DTU as well as in local fisheries organizations. In addition, 3 completed courses for students at the Fisheries School in Thyborøn as well as courses for Aquatic Technology and Science students at DTU with project practice on fishing boats during the studies contributed to the transfer of knowledge at generational change.Finally, the network has supported work in the Thematic and Regional Advisory Boards.

Global fisheries catches can be increased in a sustainable way after rebuilding of fish populations, if ecosystem functioning is considered. A central biological reference point for fisheries management, Fmsy, the fishing pressure that gives the maximum sustainable yield, has been re-evaluated taking into account ecosystem functioning. This has been done for the main commercial fish stocks of the Northeast Atlantic. The new Fmsy values can replace the current values right away in fisheries management. Report of the working group meeting in 2017.

Global fisheries catches can be increased in a sustainable way after rebuilding of fish populations, if ecosystem functioning is considered. A central biological reference point for fisheries management, Fmsy, the fishing pressure that gives the maximum sustainable yield, has been re-evaluated taking into account ecosystem functioning. This has been done for the main commercial fish stocks of the Northeast Atlantic. The new Fmsy values can replace the current values right away in fisheries management. Report of the 3rd working group meeting in Rhode Island 2018.

Global fisheries catches can be increased in a sustainable way after rebuilding of fish populations, if ecosystem functioning is considered. A central biological reference point for fisheries management, Fmsy, the fishing pressure that gives the maximum sustainable yield, has been re-evaluated taking into account ecosystem functioning. This has been done for the main commercial fish stocks of the Northeast Atlantic. The new Fmsy values can replace the current values right away in fisheries management. Report of the 2nd working group meeting in Vancouver, November 2017.

A 2 year project funded by: The European Maritime and Fisheries Fund & the Danish Ministry of Environment and Food (1.372 mio DKK), the Norwegian Fisheries Research Fund via IMR Norway (0.5 mio DKK) and from the Nordic Council of Ministers (0.5 mio DKK). The total budget for the project is therefore 3.057 mio DKK

Global fisheries catches can be increased in a sustainable way after rebuilding of fish populations, if ecosystem functioning is considered. A central biological reference point for fisheries management, Fmsy, the fishing pressure that gives the maximum sustainable yield, has been re-evaluated taking into account ecosystem functioning. This has been done for the main commercial fish stocks of the Northeast Atlantic. The new Fmsy values can replace the current values right away in fisheries management. Report of the 3rd working group meeting in Rhode Island 2018.

Global fisheries catches can be increased in a sustainable way after rebuilding of fish populations, if ecosystem functioning is considered. A central biological reference point for fisheries management, Fmsy, the fishing pressure that gives the maximum sustainable yield, has been re-evaluated taking into account ecosystem functioning. This has been done for the main commercial fish stocks of the Northeast Atlantic. The new Fmsy values can replace the current values right away in fisheries management. Report of the 2nd working group meeting in Vancouver, November 2017.

The ICES Workshop for management strategy evaluation for Norway Pout (WKNPOUT) took place 26–28 February 2018 at ICES Headquarter chaired by Andrés Uriarte, Spain, with the assistance of ICES Secretariat. 12 participants, both scientific experts and stakeholders, from Denmark and Norway, attended the meeting. The group addressed the special request from the European Union and Norway to advise on the long-term management strategies of Norway Pout in ICES Subarea 4 (North Sea) and ICES Division 3.a (Skagerrak-Kattegat). The proposed management strategy is based on the ICES escapement strategy with the aim of achieving a high probability of having the minimum SSB required to produce MSY (Blim) surviving to the following year. ICES was requested to evaluate: 1. Whether a management strategy is precautionary if the TAC is constrained with a lower bound in the range of 20 000 tonnes to 40 000 tonnes and an upper bound in the range of 150 000 tonnes to 250 000 tonnes, or another range suggested by ICES. 2. Whether such a strategy would be precautionary if the TAC constraints referred to in paragraph 1 are overridden by a constraint on the maximum value of fishing mortality (Fcap), and whether the application of the Fcap would allow a precautionary strategy with a higher minimum TAC than if the Fcap was not applied. 3. Whether a provision to override the minimum value of the TAC when the stock is forecast to be below some threshold value would allow a precautionary strategy with a higher minimum TAC than if the escape-clause was not included, and whether such a provision would provide any additional benefit to the inclusion of an Fcap as referred to in paragraph 2. The alternative management procedures were tested in the framework of a management strategy evaluation (MSE) set up according to the assessment model SESAM adopted for Norway pout in the 2016 benchmark. One thousand simulations (replicates) were projected over 20 years for each of the different harvest control rules. Each replicate begins in the 2018 TAC year which starts in quarter 4 of calendar year 2017. Each replicate randomly draws a true state of the system (starting population, age and quarterly fishing patterns and series of past recruitments) from the joint distribution estimated by the last stock assessment. This is taken as the approach best reflecting the uncertainties in the SESAM assessment. An alternative reducing the uncertainty in the initial stock numbers, recruitment and exploitation pattern at the median estimate from the last assessment was also tested. The simulations were conditioned by a maximum realized level of fishing mortality the fishery can exert (assumed at 0.89; Fhistorical), which means that the full TAC will not be taken if the required F exceeds this value. First the group tested whether the current ICES procedure for providing TAC advice for Norway Pout, based on an escapement strategy (the default method), was precautionary. Results showed that it is not precautionary (as tested with unconstrained levels of fishing mortality), because the probability of SSB falling below Blim is higher than 5%. This is probably linked to cases of very high TAC and F when very high recruitments occur, in association with observation errors in the assessment. This called for modifying the default escapement strategy either by setting an upper F (Fcap) or including conditions on TACmin/ TACmax as explored here. Concerning Request 1: The group tested HCR escapement strategies (as the default method) bounded by a combination of TACmin (at either 20, 30 or 40 kt) and TACmax (at 150 and 200 kt). Results show that these HCR were precautionary for TACmin at 20 kt for the two TACmax levels and for a TACmin at 30 kt when bounded by a TACmax of 150 kt. They gave median and mean TACs (around 100–130 kt depending upon the rule) and realized catches around 110–115 kt, with TACs set at TACmin or at TACmax around 20–24% and 36–46% of the cases respectively. In these cases, Fhistorical was reached in 9–16% of the years, which makes the results sensitive to the assumption that the fishery will not exceed catches requiring F above Fhistorical. Other combinations based on higher values of TACmin or TACmax led to unprecautionary outcomes. Concerning Request 2: The same combinations of TACmin and TACmax as for request 1 were explored with Fcap at either 0.3 or 0.4. Results showed that the inclusion of a Fcap increases the range of TACmin and TACmax combinations that are precautionary, reaching for Fcap up to a TACmin at 30 kt and a TACmax of 200 kt. On average, TACs become considerably lower when Fcap is applied (ranging between 72 and 97 kt depending upon the combinations) and realized catches did not exceed 92 kt. In general, TAC increases with increasing Fcap. The gain in average TAC by increasing TACmin or TACmax is minimal, but the TAC constraints affect the probability of falling below Blim. For these bounded rules, the probability of setting TAC at TACmin is very similar to the probability for HCRs without an Fcap, but the probability of reaching TACmax is considerably lower due to the application of the Fcap. The absolute changes in TAC between years are smaller with Fcap constraints as well, (in the order of 40 000 t) partly because of the lower TAC in general. Applying Fcap makes the HCR more robust to violations of the assumption of an Fhistorical, as the probability of reaching Fhistorical becomes significantly lower than for the HCR without an Fcap. The sensitivity of the performance of tested HCR to the alternative fittings of the stock recruitment relationship is minor, as shown for examples of rules with Fcap. Concerning request 3, due to time limitation and little interest from stakeholders to override the TACmin, the group did not fully cover this request, but an exercise was made to find out if the TACmin of 40 000 t might become precautionary under an alternative configuration of the escapement policy. An escapement strategy with a TACmin at 40 000 tonnes aiming at an escapement Biomass at 65 000 t instead of the current Blim (39 450 t) would become precautionary with combinations of Fcap in the range 0.3 to 0.4 and TACmax in the range 150 to 200 kt. TACmin would be set in around 48% of the years, which gives a median TAC slightly above TACmin. Mean TAC for the three HCR is in the same order of size as for Request 2. The Special request also asked ICES to evaluate whether the results of the MSE would be significantly changed if the TAC year were defined as 1 November to 31 October rather than a calendar year. The latter TAC year is applied to the EU Member States fishing in EU waters, while Norway uses the calendar year (January–December). Furthermore, ICES advice is produced based on a forecast from 1 October to 30 September, and ICES uses such forecast to advice management for the period 1 November- 31 October. The MSE adopted to answer the request follows the same practice. The WK has not compared the results of the MSE for the TAC year defined as 1 November to 31 October with those for a calendar year, as the latter would require a time shift in the assessment and forecast. The report includes some considerations on the current practice for advice and the TAC year.

The ICES herring assessment working group (HAWG) met for seven days in March 2018 to assess the state of five herring stocks and four sprat stocks. HAWG also provided advice for seven sandeel stocks but reported on those prior to this meeting. The working group conducted update assessments for five of the herring stocks. An analytical assessment was performed for North Sea sprat, and data limited assessments (ICES category 3 and 5) were conducted for English Channel sprat and Division 3.a sprat. The assessment of sprat in the Celtic Sea (spr.27.67a–cf–k) was not updated this year.The North Sea autumn spawning herring (her.27.3a47d) SSB in 2017 was estimated at 1.9 mill tonnes while F2–6 in 2017 was estimated at 0.21, which is below the management plan target F2–6 and below FMSY. Fishing mortality on juveniles, mean F0–1 is 0.032, below the agreed ceiling. Recruitment in 2017 is estimated to be very low. The estimate of 0-wr fish in 2017 (2016 year class) is estimated to be at approximately 18 billion, which is very low even compared to other recent low recruitments. Year classes since 2002 are estimated to be consistently weak with year classes 2015 to 2017 some of the weakest on record. ICES considers that the stock is still in a low productivity phase.The Western Baltic spring spawning herring (her.27.20-24) assessment was updated. The SSB in 2017 was relatively stable compared to recent years and is estimated to be around 104 000 tonnes. Fishing mortality has been estimated at 0.33 which is is above the estimate of FMSY (0.31). Recruitment has been low since 2006 and 2017 is the lowest observed in the time-series. Under a historical perspective the estimate of SSB of 104 170 tonnes in 2017 is considered low, below both Bpa and Blim, The stock has decreased consistently during the second half of the 2000s and given the continued low recruitments the stock seems not to be able to recover to these higher biomass levels.The Celtic Sea autumn and winter spawning stock (her.27.irls) is estimated to be at a low level, declining from a recent high biomass that peaked in 2011. SSB is currently estimated at 36 000 tonnes in 2017, coming down from 136 000 tonnes in 2011. Mean F(2–5 rings) was estimated at 0.4 in 2017, having increased from 0.06 in 2009. Recruitment has been good in recent years with several strong cohorts (2004, 2008, 2009, 2010 and 2013) entering the fishery but has come down substantially in the most recent years with the poorest year class in 2015.The 2017 SSB estimate of 6.a/7.b, c herring (Her.27.6a7bc) the combined stock of 6.aN and 6.aS/7.b, c was 113 000 tonnes, well below Bpa. Continued low recruitment has caused a decline of the stock which is expected to continue in the near future although fishing mortality is low at 0.05–0.1 in recent years.Irish Sea autumn spawning herring (her.27.nirs) assessment shows a stable SSB in 2017 compared to previous years at around 27 000 tonnes. The stock has experienced large incoming year classes in most recent years. Fishing mortality is estimated at the lowest level in the time series at 0.15, below FMSY. Catches have been relatively stable since the 1980s, and close to TAC levels in recent years.North Sea sprat (spr.27.4) is an ICES category 1 stock with a fully accepted analytical assessment. The stock is estimated to be at the highest level since the 1970s in 2018, driven by relatively high recruitment in 2017. The stock appears to be well above Bpa (142 000 tonnes) in 2018 at 408 808 tonnes. Fishing mortality in the last years has fluctuated between 0.4–2.3. A recent management strategy evaluation (WKMSYREF2) suggested that the Bescapement management strategy is not precautionary.Sprat in Division 3.a (spr.27.3a) was benchmarked in 2013 (WKSPRAT), however, it is an ICES category 3 stock that uses three survey series, from which an abundance index is derived, and landings data. ). The surveys show variability over time without a clear trend. The most recent annual change is positive compared to the 4 years before.Catch advice for sprat in the English Channel (7.d, e) (spr.27.7de) was based on criteria for an ICES category 3-based method. Data available are landings and a short time series of acoustic biomass (2013–2017). The acoustic biomass indicates an overall decline in the stock size. Quantitative advice was provided for Sprat in the Celtic Sea (spr.27.67a–cf–k) in 2017 using an ICES category 5-based method where only data on landings are available; this assessment was not updated this year as the advice is still valid and the perception of the stock has not changed. A sprat benchmark is taking place in the summer/autumn of 2018.The HAWG reviewed the assessments performed on seven sandeel stocks and the related advice of these stocks. Section 11 of this report contains the assessments of sandeel in Division 3.a and Subarea 4. Standard issues such as the quality and availability of data, estimating the amounts of discarded fish, availability of data through industry surveys and scientific advances relevant for small pelagic fish were discussed. All data and scripts used to perform the assessment and perform the forecast calculations are available on GitHub and accessible to anyone.

The benchmark workshop on sprat (WKSPRAT) was held in ICES headquarters in Copenhagen from 5–9 November 2018. The benchmark process started in June 2017 with a 3 day data compilation meeting, also held at ICES. Three stocks were benchmarked: North Sea sprat, 3.a sprat and the Channel sprat. During the benchmark process, several arguments were put forward on the connection between the North Sea stock and the 3.a stock in Kattegat-Skagerrak. It was therefore agreed to merge the two stocks and assess them as one stock assessment unit. Sprat in area 4 and 3a During the 2018 benchmark, enough evidence were presented to merge the sprat stocks in the Skagerrak-Kattegak and in the North Sea. The catch data and the indices of abundance from 3.a were included in the data from area 4. Three surveys are carried out in the area (IBTS in Q1 and Q3 and HERAS survey) and were all used as tuning indices in the model. The IBTS indices were standardized using a delta-GAM approach: the inclusion of 3.a data increased the internal consistency between all age classes for all indices. The SMS model, previously used to assess the North Sea component, was used to assess the new combined stock. The model year is resolved into 4 seasons, where season 1 corresponds to quarter 3 of the calender year. The term ‘season’ is hence used here to identify the model year, while the term ‘quarter’ refers to the calendar year. The final model formulation includes a power function for the age 0 catchability of IBTS Q1, a constant maturity ogive and the inclusion of the very few catches reported for season 4 (Q2) into season 1 (Q3) of the following year. The new stock assessment shows a considerable improvement in the retrospective pattern, as well a better fitting to some ages of the IBTS surveys and catches (as indicated by survey and catch CVs). The stock reference points were revised following ICES standard guidelines. Blim was estimated as the breakpoint of the segmented stock recruitment relationship and Bpa was derived from Blim. Short-term forecast settings were updated. The Management Strategy Evaluation (MSE) settings for the estimation of the Fcap were presented and discussed. Several scenarios were proposed to be tested and results will be evaluated during an ad-hoc MSE workshop that will take place on 11–12 December 2018. Sprat in area 7d,e Not enough evidences were available to change the boundaries of the English Channel stock. The stock is a category 3, and the data available are still scarce. An acoustic survey (PELTIC) is carried out in the English part of area 7.e since 2013. In 2017, the survey has been extended to include also the French part of 7.e and in 2018 the Eastern Channel was surveyed as well. Also, an IBTS index in Q1 is available for the Eastern Channel from 2007 onwards. The time series from the PELTIC survey has been used since 2017 to provide advice. At the benchmark, the updated time series was presented: the method used to produce the acoustic index was revised compared to previous years and it was changed to StoX (StoX, 2015). Concerns were raised because of the uncertainty in the stock distribution, and the fact that the acoustic survey covers only the Western part of the English Channel. No analytical assessment seems to work so far: both a seasonal and non-seasonal SPiCt were attempted during the benchmark workshop, but the short time series in the acoustic index and the lack of any contrast in the data still does not allow the model to converge. The group agreed to provide a seasonal advice based on an empirical method, i.e. to use both indices for trends, but only the acoustic survey for provision of advice. Two advice rules were proposed: the 1 over 2 rule, and a fixed F rule. Both options will be tested in an MSE framework and presented during the ad-hoc MSE workshop that will take place on 11–12 December 2018.

The ICES herring assessment working group (HAWG) met for seven days in March 2017 to assess the state of five herring stocks and four sprat stocks. HAWG also provided advice for seven sandeel stocks but reported on those prior to this meeting. The working group conducted update assessments for five of the herring stocks. An analytical assessment was performed for North Sea sprat and data limited assessments were conducted for English Channel sprat, Celtic Sea sprat and 3.a sprat.The North Sea autumn spawning herring SSB in 2016 was estimated at 2.20 m tonnes while F2–6 in 2016 was estimated at 0.26, at the management plan target F2-6 and below Fmsy. Fishing mortality on juveniles, mean F0-1 is 0.05, just below the agreed ceiling. Recruitment in 2017 is estimated to be very low. The estimate of 0-wr fish in 2016 (2015 year class) is estimated to be at approximately 29 billion, being low but in line with recent recruitment. Year classes since 2002 are estimated to be consistently week with year classes 2002 to 2007 to be among the weakest. ICES considers that the stock is still in a low productivity phase. The Western Baltic spring spawning herring assessment was updated. The SSB in 2016 was relatively stable compared to recent years and is estimated to be around 97 000 tonnes. Fishing mortality has been estimated at 0.41 and seems to have increased again after a period of reductions. It is above the estimate of Fmsy (0.32). Recruitment in 2016 is very low and potentially the lowest in the time-series. Under an historical perspective the estimates of SSB are considered still low, and the stock seems not to be able to recover to these higher biomass levels. The Celtic Sea autumn and winter spawning stock is estimated to be at a low level, declining from a recent high biomass that peaked in 2011. SSB is currently estimated at 46 000 tonnes in 2016, coming down from 140 000 tonnes in 2011. Mean F (2–5 rings) was estimated at 0.4 in 2016, having increased from 0.07 in 2009. Recruitment has been good in recent years with several strong cohorts (2003, 2005, 2007, 2011, 2012) entering the fishery but has come down substantially in the most recent years with the poorest year class in 2015. The 2016 SSB estimate of 6.a/7.b, c herring (the combined stock of 6.aN and 6.aS/7.b, c) was 151 000 tonnes, well below Bpa. Low recruitment has caused a decline of the stock while fishing mortality is low at 0.05-0.1 in recent years. Advice has been drafted to setup a monitoring fishery to ensure data relevant for the assessment and genetic studies are secured. Irish Sea autumn spawning herring was benchmarked in 2017 and the assessment shows a stable SSB in 2016 compared to previous years at around 26 000 tonnes, estimated substantially higher than pre-benchmark. The stock increased owing to large incoming year classes in most recent years. Fishing mortality is estimated at the lowest level in the time series at 0.17, below Fmsy. Catches have been relatively stable since the 1980s, and close to TAC levels in recent years. North Sea sprat came down from a time-series high since the early ’80, driven by high recruitment in 2014 and shows another increase owing to the 2016 year class. The stock appears to be well above Bpa (142 000 t) in 2016 at 246 170t. Fishing mortality in the last years has fluctuated between 0.4–1.6. Expected recruitment for 2017 is estimated to be in line with long-term recruitment. Sprat in Division 3.a was benchmarked in 2013 (WKSPRAT) but an analytical assessment is not presented. Short term projections are to be based on a combination of indices providing in year advice for 3.a based on the ICES approach for data limited stocks (Category 3 / 4). (Category 3/4). The surveys show variability over time without a clear trend. The most recent change is negative compared to the 4 years before. Catch advice for sprat in the English Channel (7.d, e) was based on criteria for data limited stocks. Data available are landings and a short time series of acoustic biomass (2013–2016). The acoustic biomass indicates a decline in the stock. Quantitative advice was provided for Sprat in the Celtic Sea (spr-irls) based on criteria for data limited stocks where only data on landings are available. The HAWG reviewed the assessments performed on seven sandeel stocks and the related advice of these stocks. Section 11 of this report contains the assessment of sandeel in Division 3.a and Subarea 4.Standard issues such as the quality and availability of data, estimating the amounts of discarded fish, availability of data through industry surveys and scientific advances relevant for small pelagic fish were discussed.All data and scripts used to perform the assessment and perform the forecast calculations are available on GitHub and accessible to anyone.

Marine recreational fishing is a popular outdoor leisure activity, yet the impact on the targeted stocks is often unidentified. In order to estimate 2011 cod, eel and seatrout harvest (fish caught and kept) in the Danish angling and passive gear fishing, two interview surveys were conducted in July 2011 and January 2012. Recreational fishing was separated into anglers (with rod and reel) and passive gear fishing (fyke and gillnets). In 2011 a total of 157,762 anglers and 33,911 passive gear fishers had issued the annual license, which is compulsory if saltwater fishing is practiced. In total, it was estimated that 80 t [Relative standard error (RSE)=6%] eel, close to 1,300 t (RSE=5 %) cod and 400 t (RSE=5 %) seatrout (including freshwater catches) was harvested in the recreational fishery. Eel is almost exclusively taken in the passive gear fykenet fishery and seatrout was mainly caught by anglers which accounted for 88 % of the total harvest. Present interview survey indicates that approximately 4.5 % of the total Danish cod yield (commercial landings plus recreational harvest) was taken in the recreational fishery. There were, however, large differences between areas and especially in Kattegat and the Sound the recreational had a large share of the total yield accounting for 51 % and 34 %, respectively. Approximately 18 % of the total eel yield was taken by the recreational fishing. In the estimation, harvest taken by fishers without a legal license was also included. This inclusion increased the estimated harvest with 17 % and 24 %, respectively for passive gear and angling