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Satellite altimetry data, with its increasing density and quality, has become the primary source for marine deflection of the vertical (DOV) and gravity anomaly modelling. Limited by orbital inclinations, the precision of the meridian component of the gridded deflection of the vertical (GDOV) calculated by traditional altimetry satellites is significantly better than that of the prime vertical component, and the excessive precision difference between these two components restricts the inversion precision of marine gravity anomaly model. The study of cross-track deflection of the vertical (CTDOV) is enabled by the multibeam synchronous observation mode of the new laser altimetry satellite, Ice, Cloud and Land Elevation Satellite-2 (ICESat-2). Based on the remove-restore method, residual geoid gradients are first calculated in this paper using three approaches: along-track (A-T), cross-track (C-T) and an integration of along-track and cross-track. Vertical deflections are then computed on a 1′ × 1′ grid using the least squares collocation (LSC) method, and the precision is verified against the SIO V32.1_DOV model. An optimized combination is proposed to address the issue of precision differences between the meridian and prime vertical components, and to enhance the precision of DOV inversion. A new DOV combination is formed by combining the meridian component from along-track deflection of the vertical (ATDOV) with the prime vertical component from cross-track deflection of the vertical (CTDOV) based on the remove-restore method. The Philippine Sea (0°–35°N, 120°–150°E) is selected as the test area to verify the feasibility of the optimized combination. The results indicate that the optimized combination of the meridian and prime vertical components achieved test precision of 2.63 and 3.33 μrad, respectively, when compared against the SIO V32.1_DOV model. The precision gap between the components is effectively narrowed by this approach, which maintains the precision of the meridian component and enhances that of the prime vertical component, thereby achieving optimal inversion precision for gravity anomalies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Time-varying gravity fields play a crucial role in understanding and analysing geodynamic processes, particularly the migration of matter across the Earth's surface. However, the current limitations in spatiotemporal resolution hinder their accurate representation. In this context, the use of a giant constellation of low-orbit satellites holds great potential for accurately recovering time-varying gravity fields with high spatiotemporal resolution. Based on the orbital parameters of 5199 satellites in 123 different orbital planes in the first phase configuration of the Starlink constellation and the orbital parameters of the Bender constellation in the next generation gravity mission, we conducted a closed-loop simulation to analyse the recovery ability of time-varying gravity field in 9 d using the short-arc integral method. The errors of aliasing AOHIS signal (Atmosphere, Ocean, Hydrology, Ice and Solid Earth), ocean tide models, orbit positions, intersatellite range rates and accelerometer observations were considered in the numerical simulation. Compared with the Bender constellation, the Starlink-like constellation can effectively decrease the aliasing errors in the spatial- and frequency domain when the observation noise is not considered. The Starlink-like constellation can also effectively improve the reliability of low-degree coefficients (below degree 15) of retrieved time-varying gravity field models and present higher time resolution (within 9 d) for the full-degree spherical harmonic solutions than the Bender constellation when the observation noise is considered. The aliasing effect on the low-degree part of the Bender constellation can be significantly decreased by combining the Starlink-like and Bender constellations, and the accuracy of the recovered time-varying gravity field within degree 30 can be improved by about 0.5–1 order of magnitude. Our results can provide a technical reference for the design of future gravity satellite mission. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

More accurate inversion of source fault geometry and slip parameters under the constraint of the Bayesian algorithm has become a research hotspot in the field of geodetic inversion in recent years. In nonlinear inversion, the determination of the weight ratio of the joint inversion of multisource data is more complicated. In this context, this paper proposes a simple and easily generalized weighting method for inversion of source fault parameters by joint geodetic multisource data under the Bayesian framework. This method determines the relative weight ratio of multisource data by root mean square error (RMSE) value and can be extended to other nonlinear search algorithms. To verify the validity of the method in this paper, this paper first sets up four sets of simulated seismic experiment schemes. The inversion results show that the joint inversion weighting method proposed in this paper has a significant decrease in the large residual value compared with the equal weight joint inversion and the single data source joint inversion method. The east–west deformation RMSE is 0.1458 mm, the north–south deformation RMSE is 0.2119 mm and the vertical deformation RMSE is 0.2756 mm. The RMSEs of the three directions are lower than those of other schemes, indicating that the proposed method is suitable for the joint inversion of source parameters under Bayesian algorithm. To further verify the applicability of the proposed method in complex earthquakes, the source parameters of the Maduo earthquake were inverted using the method of this paper. The focal depth of the inversion results in this paper is closer to the focal depth released by the GCMT agency. In terms of strike angle and dip angle, the joint inversion in this paper is also more inclined to the GCMT results. The joint inversion results generally conform to the characteristics of left-lateral strike-slip, which shows the adaptability of this method in complex earthquakes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We successfully detected widely distributed ground displacements for the 2023 Kahramanmaraş, Turkey, earthquakes by conducting interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) analyses using a ScanSAR observation mode. Major deformation extended approximately 350 and 150 km along the southern and northern strands bifurcating in the west of the East Anatolian Fault, produced by the main shock and the largest aftershock. The deformation map reveals that the ruptures propagated on the Erkenek, Pazarcık and Amanos segments on the southern strand and the Çardak segment on the northern strand. The fault plane of the northern strand bends approximately 45° at both edges with Z-shaped crank geometry. The bending fault at the western edge runs just along the Çardak segment but does not reach the Savrun segment, while at the eastern edge it deviates from known active faults such as Sürgü, Malatya faults and Doğansehır fault zone. A 3-D displacement map demonstrates that almost pure left-lateral fault motions were distributed along the two strands, with little vertical deformation. The moment magnitudes estimated from the slip distribution model were 7.82 and 7.66 for the southern and northern strands, respectively, with the Erkenek and Çardak segments having the largest released seismic moments on each strand, corresponding to approximately 31 and 57 per cent of the total, respectively. The Coulomb Failure Function change values indicate that the main shock can promote the largest aftershock with a standard value of the effective friction coefficient. Additionally, the unclamping effect controlled by the frictional property of the rock was a key factor in pulling the trigger of the seismic event on the northern strand. The historically accumulated and released seismic energies were imbalanced for the Pazarcık and Erkenek segments, suggesting that the 2023 event does not support a simple characteristic earthquake model; rather, it may be consistent with a supercycle model, in which the slip remnants from the characteristic earthquakes have been historically accumulated as coupling on a fault and released as huge earthquakes at longer intervals. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

High quality Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) interferograms are essential for determining surface deformation from InSAR time-series. However, InSAR interferograms are usually polluted by spatially correlated errors (SCEs), especially the unmodelled atmospheric phase delays. To mitigate spatially correlated errors and improve the quality of InSAR interferograms, we propose a new approach to incorporate the Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) data from continuously operating reference stations for enhancing InSAR interferograms via modelling SCEs as signals and solving the signals together with the systematic parameters using least squares collocation (LSC), which is referred to as the LSC-GInSAR approach. Our improvement for the GInSAR method of Neely et al. can correct more SCEs. The Sentinel-1 data over the southern Central Valley of California, USA, are processed with our LSC-GInSAR approach, which is compared to the GInSAR approach. The performance of the LSC-GInSAR approach is evaluated by external GNSS displacements. The results show that the LSC-GInSAR approach can effectively mitigate medium-to-long-wavelength SCEs. The displacements resolved by LSC-GInSAR are more consistent with the cGNSS observations than those resolved by GInSAR, with an average root mean square improvement of 14.3 per cent. In addition, the LSC-GInSAR approach reduced the average standard deviations of all 276 InSAR interferograms from 14.2 to 11.0 mm compared to that of the GInSAR approach. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

High-precision prediction of polar motion (PM) plays an important role in fields such as astronomy, geodesy, navigation and aerospace. Incorporating information on the effective angular momentum (EAM) of the geophysical fluid is an effective way to improve the precision of PM prediction. Based on the EOP_20_C04 data set and the EAM function, this study applies complex segmented least-squares (CSLS) + the long short term memory (LSTM) neural network and CSLS + autoregression (AR) models to predict PM. For the 6-d PM prediction, the mean absolute errors (MAEs) achieved by CSLS+AR are 1.03 and 0.8 mas in the X- and Y -directions, respectively, corresponding to reductions of 45.80 and 31.97 per cent when compared to predictions reported routinely in Bulletin A of the International Earth Rotation and Reference Systems Service (IERS). For the 365-d PM prediction, the MAEs gained by CSLS+LSTM model are 14.58 and 10.59 mas in the X- and Y -directions, respectively, corresponding to reductions of 28.17 and 51.09 per cent compared to predictions of the Bulletin A, and the prediction accuracy attained by CSLS+LSTM is higher than other prediction schemes. The experimental results show that, when considering EAM information, the CSLS+AR model can achieve better prediction accuracy for short-term PM prediction, however, the CSLS+LSTM model is more effective for medium- and long-term PM prediction owning to the excellent nonlinear fitting capability of the LSTM deep learning algorithm. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The accuracy of polar motion forecasting has been the focus of attention in the fields of satellite navigation and deep space exploration. However, the traditional or differential methods for forecasting X or Y series based on LS and AR models are straightforward and monolithic, and cannot reduce the range of forecast errors. Therefore, this study proposes a new method (called the between-within, B–W method) that combines the X, Y and Y–X series forecasts of the traditional and differential methods in pairs according to the mathematical relationship of Y–X. This approach is one way to obtain the minimum range of forecast errors by making full use of the advantages of each method in the combination. A total of 262-hindcast experiments were conducted during 2010–2020 with strictly simulated time delays. For forecasts of 1–180 d at the x-pole, the average improvement is 10.7 per cent over Bulletin-A. For the y-pole at 1–90 d an average improvement of 11.7 per cent over Bulletin-A is achieved. In addition, further incorporation of the last 1 d IGS (International Global Navigation Satellite System Service) Ultra-rapid (IGU) data can effectively improve the MAE at 1–10 d. The 2016–2018 performance of the B–W method at the x-pole may be related to the amplitude and phase of the Chandler wobble, and the 2013–2016 performance at the y-pole may be related to El Niño climate change events. In terms of overall stability, the B–W method is superior to the IERS Bulletin-A in the medium-short-term and has potential practical application. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

On 2015 November 4, an M w 6.5 earthquake struck the east region of Alor Island, eastern Indonesia. Here, we use Sentinel-1 and ALOS-2 data to explore the coseismic surface displacement of this earthquake. Based on the ALOS-2 coseismic interferograms, the first fault model and coseismic slip distribution of the 2015 Alor earthquake are presented in this study. The preferred slip model links to a blind south-southeast striking, south-southwest dipping strike-slip fault with amount of normal slip component and a peak slip of 2.09 m at 2.34 km of depth. Considering the fact that the ascending and descending InSAR prediction of the distributed slip model does not fit the InSAR observations at the northwest and southeast tips with the simple planar fault model. We tried to construct a strike-variable fault model to further improve data fit. The results of the calculated Coulomb stress change imply that the regions with positive CFS changes mainly located at the northwest and southeast extremities of the rupture of the Alor earthquake, and in the lobes north and south of the rupture. The most striking discovery from the InSAR observations of the Alor earthquake is that most of the displacements occurred on a fault whose existence was unknown before the earthquake. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

SUMMARY: Outer Albanides experienced a seismic sequence starting on 21 September 2019, with an Mw 5.6 earthquake, considered a foreshock, and culminated with the main shock on 26 November 2019, followed by a paramount aftershock activity. We propose a model for the coseismic slip distribution using InSAR, permanent, and campaign GNSS measurements. We tested two hypotheses: an earthquake on a thrust plane with the direction N160° and along with a back thrust. By varying the depth and dip angle for the first hypothesis and only the dip angle for the second hypothesis, we concluded the optimal solution is a blind thrust at a 15-km depth dipping eastward 40°, a maximum slip of 1.4 m and an Mw 6.38. A GNSS time-series obtained after 2020 shows two slow slip events (SSEs): the first one is 200 d after the main shock up to 26 d, and the second one is 300 d after the main shock up to 28 d. We tested three hypotheses: SSE along the basement thrust where the main shock has been localized, SSE along the flat formed by the detachment layer of the cover, and SSE along these two faults. We concluded that SSE occurred along the detachment layer or along the two faults. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

On the 2021 January 15 (local date), an M W 6.2 earthquake struck the Mamuju and Majene regions of West Sulawesi, Indonesia. This event killed more than 100 inhabitants, leaving at least 30 000 people displaced from their homes, and damaged almost 8000 buildings within a radius of ∼30 km from the main shock's epicentre location (as shown on our damage proxy map). This event was generated by an active fault that continues to the Makassar Strait Thrust (MST) offshore West Sulawesi. The hazard potential of this fault remains poorly understood. In this study, we use seismic and Global Positioning System (GPS) data to investigate the source characteristics of the main shock. The results suggest that the main shock partially ruptured one segment of the MST, activated a secondary fault structure, and likely brought the updip unruptured section of the MST segment closure to failure. Our analysis of interseismic GPS velocities indicates that the Mamuju and Majene regions have a higher crustal strain rate than other nearby regions. The results (partial rupture of the MST segment, the updip unruptured section of the MST and high strain rate in the Mamuju and Majene regions) together suggest a significant seismic hazard potential in West Sulawesi, particularly in the Mamuju and Majene areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Daliang Shan is a tectonic unit that connects the active southeastern Tibetan Plateau with the stable South China block. As a newly generated (formed later than the Xianshuihe–Xiaojiang active fault system) seismotectonic zone induced by the Tibetan tectonics, the detailed constraints of the crustal deformation are central to the understanding of the kinematics and dynamics of the Tibetan expansion. This paper establishes and analyses a high-spatial resolution global positioning system (GPS) velocity field from a dense GPS network in this region. Our modelling results indicate that, in contrast to the equivalent sinistral strike-slip rate of approximately 5 mm yr–1 on the Anninghe–Zemuhe and Daliangshan faults, their inferred interseismic locking depth varies within a large range. The southern segment of the Anninghe Fault and the middle segment of the Daliangshan Fault have deep locking depths of ∼13 km, indicating that the seismic risk is high in these areas. In addition, the detectable counter-clockwise rotation rate of 0.35 ± 0.12° Myr–1 of the Mabian block makes a significant contribution of ∼50 per cent to the strike-slip motion on its boundary faults. This counter-clockwise rotation may be induced by a left-lateral shear gradient with southeastward motion relative to the South China-fixed reference frame, indicating the significance of a simple-shear pattern in exploring the kinematics of the encroachment of the Tibetan tectonics upon a stable block (craton). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We report unique observations of crustal deformation caused by the seasonal water level changes of Tehri reservoir in the Garhwal region ofNWHimalaya from GPS measurements and Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) analysis. All GPS sites along the Himalaya are strongly influenced by seasonal hydrological and atmospheric loading. However, the GPS siteKUNRlocated near the reservoir additionally exhibits anomalous variations due to seasonal water loading and unloading by the reservoir. Our InSAR analysis confirms that the seasonal filling of the reservoir causes measurable subsidence in its neighbourhood. In addition to the elastic deformation caused by the seasonal reservoir loading and the negligible poroelastic deformation caused by associated fluid pressure changes, there is an unaccounted biannual deformation in the east component of the GPS time-series which we suspect to be caused by altered hydrological conditions due to the reservoir operations. Understanding crustal deformation processes due to such anthropogenic sources helps in separating deformation caused by tectonic, hydrological and atmospheric effects from that caused by these activities.

We revisit the problem of coseismic rupture of the 2008 Mw 7.9 Wenchuan earthquake. Precise determination of the fault structure and slip distribution provides critical information about the mechanical behaviour of the fault system and earthquake rupture. We use all the geodetic data available, craft a more realistic Earth structure and fault model compared to previous studies, and employ a nonlinear inversion scheme to optimally solve for the fault geometry and slip distribution. Compared to a homogeneous elastic half-space model and laterally uniform layered models, adopting separate layered elastic structure models on both sides of the Beichuan fault significantly improved data fitting. Our results reveal that: (1) The Beichuan fault is listric in shape, with near surface fault dip angles increasing from ~36° at the southwest end to ~83° at the northeast end of the rupture. (2) The fault rupture style changes from predominantly thrust at the southwest end to dextral at the northeast end of the fault rupture. (3) Fault slip peaks near the surface for most parts of the fault, with~8.4mthrust and ~5 m dextral slip near Hongkou and ~6 m thrust and ~8.4 m dextral slip near Beichuan, respectively. (4) The peak slips are located around fault geometric complexities, suggesting that earthquake style and rupture propagation were determined by fault zone geometric barriers. Such barriers exist primarily along restraining left stepping discontinuities of the dextralcompressional fault system. (5) The seismic moment released on the fault above 20 km depth is 8.2 × 1021 N m, corresponding to an Mw 7.9 event. The seismic moments released on the local slip concentrations are equivalent to events of Mw 7.5 at Yingxiu-Hongkou, Mw 7.3 at Beichuan-Pingtong, Mw 7.2 near Qingping, Mw 7.1 near Qingchuan, and Mw 6.7 near Nanba, respectively. (6) The fault geometry and kinematics are consistent with a model in which crustal deformation at the eastern margin of the Tibetan plateau is decoupled by differential motion across a decollement in the mid crust, above which deformation is dominated by brittle reverse faulting and below which deformation occurs by viscous horizontal shortening and vertical thickening.

Although the Dead Sea Transform (DST) fault system has been extensively studied in the past, little has been known about the present-day kinematics of its southernmost portion that is offshore in the Gulf of Aqaba. Here, we present a new GPS velocity field based on three surveys conducted between 2015 and 2019 at 30 campaign sites, complemented by 11 permanent stations operating near the gulf coast. Interseismic models of strain accumulation indicate a slip rate of |$4.9^{+0.9}_{-0.6}~\mathrm{ mm}\,\mathrm{ yr}^{-1}$| and a locking depth of |$6.8^{+3.5}_{-3.1}~\mathrm{ km}$| in the gulf's northern region. Our results further indicate an apparent reduction of the locking depth from the inland portion of the DST towards its southern junction with the Red Sea rift. Our modelling results reveal a small systematic left-lateral residual motion that we postulate is caused by, at least in part, late post-seismic transient motion from the 1995 M W 7.2 Nuweiba earthquake. Estimates of the moment accumulation rate on the main faults in the gulf, other than the one that ruptured in 1995, suggest that they might be near the end of their current interseismic period, implying elevated seismic hazard in the gulf area. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We constrain viscoelastic Earth rheology and recent ice‐mass change in the northern Marguerite Bay region of the Antarctic Peninsula. Global Positioning System (GPS) time series from Rothera and San Martin stations show bedrock uplift range of ∼−0.8–1.8 mm/year over 1999–2005 and 2016–2020 but ∼3.5–6.0 mm/year over ∼2005–2016. Digital elevation models reveal substantial surface lowering, but at a lower rate since ∼2009. Using these data, we show that an elastic‐only model cannot explain the non‐linear uplift of the GPS sites but that a layered viscoelastic model can. We show close agreement between GPS uplift changes and viscoelastic models with effective elastic lithosphere thickness and upper‐mantle viscosity ∼10–95 km and ∼0.1−9 × 1018 Pa s, respectively. Our viscosity estimate is consistent with a north‐south gradient in viscosity suggested by previous studies focused on specific regions within the Antarctic Peninsula and adds further evidence of the low viscosity upper mantle in the northern Antarctic Peninsula. Plain Language Summary: Over the last few decades, the glaciers of the Antarctic Peninsula have thinned tens to hundreds of meters. This unloading of the solid Earth has produced a viscoelastic response of the solid Earth. By observing this response and comparing it to viscoelastic models combined with ice unloading models, we may infer the viscoelastic properties of the Earth in this region. In this study, we estimate ice mass changes over 15 years using satellite images. Then we analyze estimates of solid Earth displacement from continuous Global Positioning System (GPS) stations attached to bedrock. When compared to the predictions of deformation from viscoelastic models with different Earth properties and ice mass change rates, we find the rate of glacier thinning must have slowed since around 2009–2010 and suggests a thin elastic lithosphere with a lower‐viscosity upper mantle underneath this region. Key Points: GPS‐measured time‐varying uplift rates ranging between ∼1.6 ± 0.8 and ∼6.0 ± 0.6 mm/year over 1999.1–2016.0 in Northern Marguerite BayGlaciers in the region generally show a reduced rate of surface lowering since ∼2009Comparing GPS and modeled viscoelastic deformation suggests a lower‐viscosity upper mantle for this region with possible thin lithosphere [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study examines local geopotential field modelling over a mountainous region in Tanzania using vector airborne gravity data. We use the adjusted spherical cap and rectangular harmonic analyses. Both methods are based on expansion of gravitational potential into a series of orthogonal harmonic basis functions of local support in such a way that the expansion coefficients are determined by gravity observations. All three components of gravity vector are simultaneously inverted to derive the geopotential coefficients. In order to evaluate the accuracy of the local models, independent checkpoints are selected within the study region and around its boundary and the computed gravity vectors are compared with the independent gravity observations. The results show an excellent agreement with root mean square error (RMSE) of < 1.6 mGal over the study area. On the contrary, the RMSEs of global geopotential models against the checkpoints data are 7 mGal for the models up to the maximum degree of 2190 (a resolution of ∼9.1 km) and 5 mGal to 5399 (∼3.7 km). Our local models are significantly more accurate than the state-of-the-art global models and fully exploit the airborne vector data with the measurement error of ∼1 mGal. We also present the regional models constrained only by radial (vertical) or by lateral (horizontal) gravity observations. Those models are considerably less accurate than the one from 3-D gravity data inversion. Lastly, the regional models are validated against topography data. It is found that the gravity–topography correlation is 0.8–0.9 at 100 km, 0.5 at 20 km and higher than the correlations of the global models at all frequencies. The gravity–topography admittances estimated from our regional models indicate ∼130 mGal km−1 and imply the effective density of 2500 kg m−3 for topographical mass. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Eastern Mediterranean is the most seismically active region in Europe due to the complex interactions of the Arabian, African, and Eurasian tectonic plates. Deformation is achieved by faulting in the brittle crust, distributed flow in the viscoelastic lower-crust and mantle, and Hellenic subduction, but the long-term partitioning of these mechanisms is still unknown. We exploit an extensive suite of geodetic observations to build a kinematic model connecting strike-slip deformation, extension, subduction, and shear localization across Anatolia and the Aegean Sea by mapping the distribution of slip and strain accumulation on major active geological structures. We find that tectonic escape is facilitated by a plate-boundary-like, trans-lithospheric shear zone extending from the Gulf of Evia to the Turkish-Iranian Plateau that underlies the surface trace of the North Anatolian Fault. Additional deformation in Anatolia is taken up by a series of smaller-scale conjugate shear zones that reach the upper mantle, the largest of which is located beneath the East Anatolian Fault. Rapid north–south extension in the western part of the system, driven primarily by Hellenic Trench retreat, is accommodated by rotation and broadening of the North Anatolian mantle shear zone from the Sea of Marmara across the north Aegean Sea, and by a system of distributed transform faults and rifts including the rapidly extending Gulf of Corinth in central Greece and the active grabens of western Turkey. Africa–Eurasia convergence along the Hellenic Arc occurs at a median rate of 49.8 mm yr–1 in a largely trench-normal direction except near eastern Crete where variably oriented slip on the megathrust coincides with mixed-mode and strike-slip deformation in the overlying accretionary wedge near the Ptolemy–Pliny–Strabo trenches. Our kinematic model illustrates the competing roles the North Anatolian mantle shear zone, Hellenic Trench, overlying mantle wedge, and active crustal faults play in accommodating tectonic indentation, slab rollback and associated Aegean extension. Viscoelastic flow in the lower crust and upper mantle dominate the surface velocity field across much of Anatolia and a clear transition to megathrust-related slab pull occurs in western Turkey, the Aegean Sea and Greece. Crustal scale faults and the Hellenic wedge contribute only a minor amount to the large-scale, regional pattern of Eastern Mediterranean interseismic surface deformation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We recompute the 26-yr weekly Geocentre Motion (GCM) time-series from 1994 to 2020 through the network shift approach using Satellite Laser Ranging (SLR) observations to LAGEOS1/2. Then the Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA) is applied for the first time to separate and investigate the geophysical signals from the GCM time-series. The Principal Components (PCs) of the embedded covariance matrix of SSA from the GCM time-series are determined based on the w-correlation criterion and two PCs with large w-correlation are regarded as one periodic signal pair. The results indicate that the annual signal in all three coordinate components and semi-annual signal in both X and Z components are detected. The annual signal from this study agrees well in both amplitude and phase with those derived by the Astronomical Institute of the University of Bern and the Center for Space Research, especially for the Y and Z components. Besides, the other periodic signals with the periods of (1043.6, 85, 28), (570, 280, 222.7) and (14.1, 15.3) days are also quantitatively explored for the first time from the GCM time-series by using SSA, interpreting the corresponding geophysical and astrodynamic sources of aliasing effects of K1/O1, T2 and Mm tides, draconitic effects, and overlapping effects of the ground-track repeatability of LAGEOS1/2. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The preparation, initiation and occurrence dynamics of earthquakes in Italy are governed by several frequently unknown physical mechanisms and parameters. Understanding these mechanisms is crucial for developing new techniques and approaches for earthquake monitoring and hazard assessments. Here, we develop a first-order numerical model simulating quasi-static crustal interseismic loading, coseismic brittle episodic dislocation and post-seismic relaxation for extensional and compressional earthquakes in Italy based on a common framework of lithostatic and tectonic forces. Our model includes an upper crust, where the fault is locked, and a deep crust, where the fault experiences steady shear. The results indicate that during the interseismic phase, the contrasting behaviour between the upper locked fault segment and lower creeping fault segment generates a stretched volume at depth in the hangingwall via extensional tectonics while a contracted volume forms via compressional tectonics. The interseismic stress and strain gradients invert at the coseismic stage, with the interseismic dilated volume contracting during the coseismic stage, and vice versa. Moreover, interseismic stress gradients promote coseismic gravitational subsidence of the hangingwall for normal fault earthquakes and elastic uplift for reverse fault earthquakes. Finally, the post-seismic relaxation is characterized by further ground subsidence and uplift for normal and reverse faulting earthquakes, respectively, which is consistent with the faulting style. The fault is the passive feature, with slipping generating the seismic waves, whereas the energy activating the movement is stored mostly in the hangingwall volume. The main source of energy for normal faulting and thrust is provided by the lithostatic load and elastic load, respectively. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Improving thermospheric neutral density (TND) estimates is important for computing drag forces acting on low-Earth-orbit (LEO) satellites and debris. Empirical thermospheric models are often used to compute TNDs for the precise orbit determination experiments. However, it is known that simulating TNDs are of limited accuracy due to simplification of model structure, coarse sampling of model inputs and dependencies to the calibration period. Here, we apply TND estimates from accelerometer measurements of the Challenging Minisatellite Payload (CHAMP) and the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) missions as observations to improve the NRLMSISE-00 model, which belongs to the mass spectrometer and incoherent scatter family of models. For this, a novel simultaneous calibration and data assimilation (C/DA) technique is implemented that uses the ensemble Kalman filter and the ensemble square-root Kalman filter as merger. The application of C/DA is unique because it modifies both model-derived TNDs, as well as the selected model parameters. The calibrated parameters derived from C/DA are then used to predict TNDs in locations that are not covered by CHAMP and GRACE orbits, and forecasting TNDs of the next day. The C/DA is implemented using daily CHAMP- and/or GRACE-TNDs, for which compared to the original model, we find 27 per cent and 62 per cent reduction of misfit between model and observations in terms of root mean square error and Nash coefficient, respectively. These validations are performed using the observations along the orbital track of the other satellite that is not used in the C/DA during 2003 with various solar activity. Comparisons with another empirical model, that is, Jacchia-Bowman, indicate that the C/DA results improve these quality measurements on an average range of 50 per cent and 60 per cent, respectively. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Second- and third-order gravitational potential derivatives can be employed for the determination of the medium- and high-frequency parts of the Earth's gravity field. Due to the Gravity field and steady-state Ocean Circulation Explorer mission, second-order derivatives (SOD) in particular, express currently observed functionals of high accuracy and global coverage. Third-order derivatives (TOD), or gravitational curvature data, provide significant gravity field information when applied regionally. The absence of directly observed TOD data underlines the importance of investigating the relationship between SOD and TOD. This paper discusses the combination of simulated SOD in order to obtain TOD at satellite altitude by applying the spectral combination method. For the determination of TOD integral equations are developed that utilize SOD data at satellite altitude, thus extending the well-known Meissl spectral scheme. The performance of the derived mathematical models is investigated numerically for the test area of Himalayas and the Tibet region. Two different TOD computational strategies are examined. First, we define a deterministic approach that recovers TOD data from noise-free simulated SOD data. Results show that retrieved TOD data at satellite level reach an agreement of the level of 1 × 10−17 m−1s−2 when compared with the true TOD data. Secondly, we propose a new mathematical model based on the spectral combination of integral relations and noisy SOD data with Gaussian noise for recovering TOD. Integral estimators of biased and unbiased types are examined in the cases of SOD data at satellite altitude. The used vertical SOD components show differences between the recovered and true vertical TOD components in the order of 1 × 10−17 m−1s−2 in magnitude, proving the vertical–vertical component of SOD as the best for validating purposes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We consider the viscoelastic rheology of the solid Earth under the Antarctic Peninsula due to ice mass loss that commenced after the breakup of the Larsen-B ice shelf. We extend the previous analysis of nearby continuous GPS time-series to include five additional years and the additional consideration of the horizontal components of deformation. They show strong uplift from ∼2002 to 2011 followed by reduced uplift rates to 2018. Modelling the GPS-derived uplift as a viscoelastic response to ongoing regional ice unloading from a new ice model confirms earlier estimates of low upper-mantle viscosities of ∼0.3–3 × 1018 Pa s in this region but allows a wide range of elastic lithosphere thickness. The observed and modelled north coordinate component shows little nonlinear variation due to the location of ice mass change to the east of the GPS sites. However, comparison of the observed and modelled east coordinate component constrains the upper-mantle viscosity to be less than ∼9 × 1018 Pa s, consistent with the viscosity range suggested by the uplift rates alone and providing important, largely independent, confirmation of that result. Our horizontal analysis showed only marginal sensitivity to modelled lithospheric thickness. The results for the horizontal components are sensitive to the adopted plate rotation model, with the estimate based on ITRF2014 suggesting that the sum of residual plate motion and pre-2002 glacial isostatic adjustment is likely less than ∼±0.5 mm yr−1 in the east component. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Inappropriate mathematical treatment of prediction errors associated with inaccurate forward modelling in an inversion scheme may result in significant unnatural short-wavelength components in the estimated slip distribution, which is a typical consequence of overfitting data. When geodetic data in observation stations following a non-uniform spatial distribution are used in a geodetic slip inversion, the spatial non-uniformity of the observation can possibly influence the distribution pattern of the short-wavelength components significantly, which may be confused with slip patterns that are geophysically meaningful. Such situations often occur when land and seafloor geodetic data are used in combination in slip inversions. To avoid overfitting, this study proposes a method that incorporates covariance components in the covariance matrix of the misfit vector, which originate from prediction errors. Because the proposed method retains the linearity of the inversion problem, widely known approaches that introduce prior constraints to a linear inversion problem are easily combined with the proposed method. This study demonstrates a combination of the newly introduced covariance components with a prior constraint on the smoothness of slip distribution, constructing a Bayesian model with unknown hyperparameters, which are objectively determined by minimizing Akaike's Bayesian information criterion. In the synthetic tests, the proposed method estimated slip deficit rate (SDR) distributions that are closer to the true one, avoiding overfitting the geodetic data with spatial non-uniformity. By contrast, a conventional approach, which does not introduce covariance components, estimates unnaturally rough SDR distributions using the same synthetic data. The proposed method was applied to the estimation of SDR in the Nankai Trough subduction zone, using geodetic data of displacement rates provided by land GNSS stations and seafloor GNSS-Acoustic stations. This method estimates a reasonably smooth distribution of SDR, avoiding overfitting. The spatial distribution of residuals of the displacement rates suggests that the proposed method avoids overfitting some portions of the observed displacement rates that the forward model set for the analyses could not fundamentally explain. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Satellite gradiometry data provide the framework for estimating and validating Earth's gravity field from second and third order derivatives of the Earth's gravitational potential. Such procedures are especially useful when applied locally, as they relate to local and regional characteristics of the real gravity field. In this study a joint inversion procedure is proposed for the estimation of gravity anomalies at sea surface level from second and third order potential derivatives, based on a standard Gauss–Markov estimation model. The estimation procedure is applied for a test area stretching over Iran involving simulated grids from GOCE-only model GGM_TIM_R05 at GOCE altitude and gravity anomalies recovered at sea level. In order to validate the proposed estimation three different reductions have been considered independently, namely the removal of the long-wavelength part of the observed field through a global gravity model, the removal of the high-frequency part of the field through the incorporation of a topographic/isostatic gravity model and the application of variance component estimation. The application of a global gravity model leads to an improvement in the individual component estimation of the order of magnitude 3–73 per cent, with a significant reduction in bias to 4 mGal. Smoother gradient components can come out according to removing the topography and taking into account for isostasy that improved up results of recovery to 25 per cent for the radial second order derivative. Finally, the implementation of variance component estimation leads to no significant improvement in results of recovered gravity anomalies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The salar de Uyuni in the Bolivian Andes is the largest salt flat on Earth, exhibiting less than 1 m of vertical relief over an area of 9000 km(2). We report on a kinematic Global Positioning System (GPS) survey of a 45-by-54 km area in the eastern salar, conducted in September 2002 to provide ground truth for the Ice Cloud and land Elevation Satellite (ICESat) mission. GPS post-processing included corrections for long-period GPS noise that significantly improved survey accuracy. We fit corrected GPS trajectories with 2-D Fourier basis functions, from which we created a digital elevation model (DEM) of the surface whose absolute accuracy we estimate to be at least 2.2 cm RMSE. With over two magnitudes better vertical resolution than the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission data, this DEM reveals decimetre-level topography that is completely absent in other topographic data sets. Longer wavelengths in the DEM correlate well with mapped gravity, suggesting a connection between broad-scale salar topography and the geoid similar to that seen over the oceans.

We describe a new elastic-kinematic model for the present tectonics of northern Central America and southern Mexico, where the Motagua-Polochic fault zone, Middle America subduction zone and faults in the Central America volcanic arc pose significant seismic hazards. The new model, which consists of the angular velocities for eight plates and blocks, interseismic locking solutions for some of the block-bounding faults and strain-rate tensors for three blocks with significant internal deformation, optimizes the fit to regional fault azimuths and earthquake slip directions and a new 200+ station GPS velocity field that has been corrected for the coseismic and post-seismic effects of three large regional earthquakes in 2009 and 2012. From our new observations and modelling thereof, we find evidence for the following: (1) 13±1 mm yr−1 of ≈E-W stretching between undeformed Caribbean plate in central Honduras and a location ≈50 km west of the Guatemala City graben; (2) accommodation of the above extension via slow W-to-WNW motions of newly defined Chortis and Ipala blocks and distributed ENE-WSW stretching within both blocks; (3) 80 per cent of Chortis-North America plate motion in eastern Guatemala occurs on the Motagua fault versus only 20 per cent on the Polochic fault; (4) Motagua fault slip rates that decrease westwards from 14 ± 1.5 mm yr−1 to 9–10 ± 2 mm yr−1 to less than 2 mm yr−1 in eastern Guatemala, central Guatemala and west of the Guatemala City graben, respectively; (5) Slip rates along Central America volcanic arc faults that decrease from 12.5 ± 1.0 mm yr−1 in Nicaragua to 10 ± 1.3 mm yr−1 in central El Salvador to 7.6 ± 2.1 mm yr−1 on the Jalpatagua fault of southern Guatemala to 2-3 mm yr−1 or less across the volcanic arc west of Guatemala City; (6) a transition near the Mexico–Guatemala border from moderate-to-high locking of the subduction interface offshore from southern Mexico to low locking below the Central America forearc sliver; (7) Subduction of the Cocos plate beneath the Central America forearc sliver up to 10 mm yr−1 faster than and 7–8° clockwise from all previous estimates; (8) 12 ± 6 mm yr−1 of E–W extension across the newly defined Fonseca block. A pattern of misfits to the velocities of sites in northern Guatemala and southern Mexico may be caused by distributed deformation in this region or shortcomings with our model and/or assumptions. The primary factors that control the regional deformation appear to include the arcuate geometry of the Motagua fault, low locking of the Middle America subduction interface, slow-to-no motion between the leading edge of the Central America forearc sliver and North America plate and a rheologically weak volcanic arc. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Example of observed and simulated postseismic time series and test of mechanisms controlling the postseismic deformation, afterslip along the northern part of the upper flat, the ramp and the flower flat of the Main Himalayan Thrust (blue) or a combination of afterslip along the northern part of the upper flat and the ramp of the MHT and a viscous relaxation controlled by a low viscosity body centered on the lower flat of the MHT (red). The simulated time series are respectively drawn in blue and red. • Postseismic deformation of the 2015 Gorkha earthquake with GNSS time series. • Modeling shows afterslip along the northern part of upper flat and ramp of the MHT. • Modeling shows afterslip or a viscous relaxation along the lower flat of the MHT. The postseismic deformation consecutive to the April 25, 2015 Gorkha earthquake (Mw 7.9) is estimated in this paper based on a cGNSS network installed prior to the earthquake and supplemented by 6 cGNSS stations installed after the main shock. Postseismic displacement are obtained from daily time series corrected for interseismic deformation and seasonal variations. The maximum postseismic displacement is found north of the rupture area, where locally it reached 100 mm between the date of the earthquake and late 2016. The postseismic deformation affects the northern part of the rupture area but not the southern part, along the southern part of the Main Himalayan Thrust (MHT). Three hypotheses for the mechanisms controlling postseismic deformation are tested through numerical simulations of the postseismic time series: (i) viscous relaxation, (ii) afterslip, or (iii) a combination of these two mechanisms. We can exclude postseismic deformation controlled by viscous relaxation of a thick deformation zone along the northern and lower flat of the MHT. However, it is impossible to discriminate between postseismic deformation controlled by either afterslip along the MHT (northern part of the rupture zone, crustal ramp, and lower flat of the MHT) or a combination of afterslip along the MHT (northern part of the rupture zone, crustal ramp) and viscous relaxation controlled by a thin (∼3–4 km thick) low-viscosity body centered on the lower flat of the MHT. The occurrence of afterslip along the northern part of the upper flat of the MHT and its longitudinal variations have been established thanks to the densification of GNSS network by our team presented in this paper. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The present-day kinematics of plate boundary deformation in the western Mediterranean is now well described by space geodetic measurements, except for the Algeria–Tunisia part of north Africa where information is still lacking. Yet, that portion of the Nubia–Eurasia Plate boundary likely concentrates most of the oblique plate convergence, with an on-going debate on the role of offshore versus on-land active—and seismogenic—structures. Here we use 10 yr of continuous GPS data from the Algerian REGAT network to compute the first geodetic velocity field in Algeria. In the west, velocities are uniform and collinear to the plate convergence trend, with a sharp gradient at the coast, while in the east they indicate that deformation involves a broader region. Using a simple block kinematic approach, we show that the velocities are consistent with the presence of an active, reverse, offshore fault system that runs along the toe of the Algerian margin, with a slip rate decreasing from west to east. In the western half of Algeria, the GPS data do not require additional faults system on-land. In the eastern half, GPS velocities require an E–W-trending strike-slip fault separating two blocks that accounts for the strike-slip component of the overall plate motion. We also observe significant shortening between the Saharan platform and the Aures range in southeastern Algeria. This first-order description of the Eurasia–Nubia oblique convergence in Algeria provides new guidelines for seismic hazard assessment but still requires denser geodetic measurements over this vast territory. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We analyse noise characteristics of spatial and temporal correlation of 260 continuous GPS sites from Crustal Movement Observation Network of China (CMONOC). These data sets were mainly collected between 2010 and 2016, with an average of 6 yr of position time-series. In the functional analysis, a clear regional dependence of seasonal movements has been observed and other significant periodic signals are detected nearby the GPS draconitic period and its harmonics. The distribution of these periodic signals shows a spatial correlation, along with non-negligible local inconsistencies. In the stochastic analysis, impacts of the periodicities on the noise assessment have been investigated and Maximum likelihood estimation is used to study noise properties for deseasonalized residual time-series having the seasonal signals removed and filtered residual time-series having other periodic signals removed further. We demonstrate that for both solutions, the flicker noise is thought to be the dominant time-correlated noise and velocity uncertainties may be underestimated 8–10 times if assuming a pure white noise. Ignoring the periodicities could bias the estimation of noise amplitude, spectral index and velocity uncertainty. After removing the periodic signals, the median flicker noise magnitude shows an average of ∼10 per cent reductions and the noise process shifts closer towards white noise. A correlation between the index variations and RMS variations has been observed, indicating that the index varies more significantly for sites with more periodic signals removed. Besides, the spectral index in the vertical component has a better spatial correlation than that in the horizontal and the spatial distribution of the index of deseasonalized solutions seems to correlate well with the amplitudes of seasonal signals, probably implying common sources of spatial variations of these characteristics. Furthermore, analyses of intersite correlations indicate that the correlation induced from the periodic signals displays a similar pattern to the deseasonalized solutions, confirming that the period pattern is spatially correlated and can induce time-series correlations. Finally, the stochastic processes of the common mode noise are predominantly featured by spatially correlated flicker and white noise over a wide range, consistent with previous results. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Undrained and drained Poisson's ratios are mechanical properties that control poroelastic rebound modelling but are still not well understood. Here, we utilized displacement data from the dense GPS network in northern Honshu and a few GPS/Acoustic sites in offshore regions to delineate Poisson's ratio by investigating poroelastic rebound after the 2011 Tohoku earthquake. GPS time-series after the 2011 Tohoku earthquake were modelled by afterslip, viscoelastic relaxation and poroelastic rebound as the post-seismic deformation, as well as by optimized undrained and drained Poisson's ratios. The estimated undrained and drained Poisson's ratios were found to be 0.34 and 0.25, respectively. The estimated surface displacements due to poroelastic rebound in the vicinity of the rupture region were as high as ∼36 cm horizontally, and ∼21 cm vertically (uplift). The afterslip-only model is prone to overestimating the displacement; hence, to significantly improve the data model fit, the use of viscoelastic relaxation and poroelastic rebound is preferable. Furthermore, poroelastic rebound is necessary to allow us to use near-field vertical data, such as GPS/Acoustic data, to better resolve the post-seismic slip distribution. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We examine the hypocentral distribution of seismicity and a series of geodetic velocity vectors obtained from Global Positioning System observations between 1994 and 2015 both off-shore and mainland northwestern South America (66°W–77°W; 8°N–14°N). Our analysis, that includes a kinematic block modelling, shows that east of the Caribbean–South American–North Andes plates′ triple junction at ∼68°W; 10.7°N, right-lateral easterly oriented shear motion (∼19.6 ± 2.0 mm yr−1) between the Caribbean and South America plates is split along two easterly striking, right-lateral strike-slip subparallel fault zones: the San Sebastián fault that runs off-shore the Venezuelan coast and slips about 17.0 ± 0.5 mm yr−1 and the La Victoria fault, located on-shore to the south, which is accumulating strain equivalent to 2.6 ± 0.4 mm yr−1. West of the triple junction, relative right-lateral motion between the Caribbean and South American plates is mostly divided between the Morrocoy and Boconó fault systems that strike northwest and southwest from the triple junction, respectively, and bound the intervening North Andes plate that shows an easterly oriented geodetic slip of 15.0 ± 1.0 mm yr−1 relative to the South American plate. Slip on the Morrocoy fault is right-lateral and transtensional. Motion across the Boconó fault is also right-lateral but instead transpressional, divided between ∼9 and 11 mm yr−1 of right-slip on the Boconó fault and 2–5 mm yr−1 of convergence across adjacent and subparallel thrust faults. Farther west of the triple junction, ∼800 km away in northern Colombia, the Caribbean plate subducts to the southeast beneath the North Andes plate at a geodetically estimated rate of ∼5–7 mm yr−1. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study demonstrates the different effects of unmodelled (sub-)daily tidal displacement in Global Positioning System (GPS) and GLObalnaya NAvigatsionnaya Sputnikovaya Sistema (GLONASS) coordinate time-series. The results show that more than two propagated periodic signals appear in GPS and GLONASS Precise Point Positioning (PPP) coordinate time-series in the presence of an unmodelled M 2/ O 1 tidal displacements as a result of a non-overlapping 24-hr data sampling. To summarize the propagated periodic signals at the fortnightly period, an unmodelled M 2 tidal displacement propagates predominately into two long-period signals at 13.6 x (x is a positive integer) and 14.76 d for GPS, while only one significant propagated periodic signal at 14.76 d is discernible for GLONASS. Similarly, significant propagated periodic signals at 13.6 x and 14.19 d for GPS and only at 14.19 d for GLONASS are evident as a result of an unmodelled O 1 tidal displacement. However, an unmodelled Mf (long-period) signal results in a strong power of similar magnitude at 13.6 x  d (∼13.66 d) for both GPS and GLONASS solutions. The appearance of different periodic signals as a result of the same unmodelled tidal displacement is attributed to the different ground repeat periods of the constellations. The latter is likely to explain the reason why the 13.6 x -d fortnightly signal is present only in GPS solutions. Comparing the powers of the M 2 propagated periodic signals at 13.6 x and 14.76 d on average from 32 globally distributed stations, the amplitude of the former is larger than for the latter by an order of magnitude. The results of this study demonstrate that the 13.6 x -d periodic signal in GPS/GNSS (Global Navigation Satellite System) derived products is a joint contribution of the propagation of unmodelled (sub-)daily tidal displacements and errors at longer periods with the former appearing to contribute more. Significant reduction of the propagated periodic signals is achieved from combined-system solutions where including Galileo (the European GNSS) to the combined solution already shows benefits by reducing the effect even before the system has reached its full constellation. Combined GNSS solutions will benefit the applications of GNSS time-series for retrieving tidal harmonic signals such as Mf as they reduce constellation specific propagation effects. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We use continuous and campaign measurements from 215 GPS sites in northern Central America and southern Mexico to estimate coseismic and afterslip solutions for the 2009 M w = 7.3 Swan Islands fault strike-slip earthquake and the 2012 M w = 7.3 El Salvador and M w = 7.4 Guatemala thrust-faulting earthquakes on the Middle America trench. Our simultaneous, time-dependent inversion of more than 350 000 daily GPS site positions gives the first jointly consistent estimates of the coseismic slips for all three earthquakes, their combined time-dependent post-seismic effects and secular station velocities corrected for both the coseismic and post-seismic deformation. Our geodetic slip solutions for all three earthquakes agree with previous estimates that were derived via static coseismic-offset modelling. Our time-dependent model, which attributes all transient post-seismic deformation to earthquake afterslip, fits nearly all of the continuous GPS site position time-series within their several-millimetre position noise. Afterslip moments for the three earthquakes range from 35 to 140 per cent of the geodetic coseismic moments, with the largest afterslip estimated for the 2012 El Salvador earthquake along the weakly coupled El Salvador trench segment. Forward modelling of viscoelastic deformation triggered by all three earthquakes for a range of assumed mantle and lower crustal viscosities suggests that it accounts for under 20 per cent of the observed post-seismic deformation and possibly under 10 per cent. Our results thus point to afterslip as the primary and perhaps dominant mode of post-seismic deformation for these three earthquakes. Forward modelling of post-seismic deformation associated with the larger M w = 7.6 September 2012 Costa Rica thrust earthquake suggests that afterslip, viscoelastic flow, or some combination thereof was responsible for a significant change in motion observed at a GPS site on San Andres Island in the Caribbean Sea more than 500 km from all four earthquakes. The measurable effects of the 2009 and 2012 earthquakes on the motions of GPS sites in nearly all of northern Central America underline the importance of time-dependent calibrations for transient, earthquake-related effects for studies of steady-state deformation processes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Spatially correlated common mode error (CME) always exists in regional, or-larger, global positioning system (GPS) networks. We applied independent component analysis (ICA) to GPS vertical coordinate time-series in Antarctica from 2010 to 2014 and made a comparison with the principal component analysis (PCA). Using PCA/ICA, the time-series can be decomposed into a set of temporal components and their spatial responses. We assume the components with common spatial responses are CME. An average reduction of ∼40 per cent about the root-mean-square (RMS) values was achieved in both PCA and ICA filtering. However, the common mode components obtained from the two approaches have different spatial and temporal features. ICA time-series present interesting correlations with modelled atmospheric and non-tidal ocean loading displacements. A white noise plus power law (PL) noise model was adopted in the GPS velocity estimation using maximum likelihood estimation analysis, with ∼55 per cent reduction of the velocity uncertainties after filtering using ICA. Meanwhile, spatiotemporal filtering reduces the amplitude of PL and periodic terms in the GPS time-series. Finally, we compare the GPS uplift velocities, after correction for elastic effects, with recent models of glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA). The agreements of the GPS observed velocities and four GIA models are generally improved after the spatiotemporal filtering, with a mean reduction of ∼0.9 mm yr−1 of the weighted RMS values, possibly allowing for more confident separation of various GIA model predictions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Dense strong motion and high-rate Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) networks have been deployed in central Italy for rapid seismic source determination and corresponding hazard mitigation. Different from previous studies for the consistency between two kinds of sensor at collocated stations, here we focus on the combination of high-rate GNSS displacement waveforms with collocated seismic strong motion accelerators, and investigate its application to image rupture history. Taking the 2016 August 24 Mw 6.1 Central Italy earthquake as a case study, we first generate more accurate and longer period seismogeodetic displacement waveforms by a Kalman filter, then model the rupture behaviour through a joint inversion including seismogeodetic waveforms and InSAR observations. Our results reveal that strong motion data alone can overestimate the magnitude and mismatch the GNSS observations, while 1 Hz sampling rate GNSS is insufficient and the displacement is too noisy to depict rupture process. By contrast, seismogeodetic data enhances temporal resolution and maintains the static offsets that provide vital constraint to the reliable estimation of earthquake magnitude. The obtained model is close to the jointly inverted one. Our work demonstrates the unique usefulness of seismogeodesy for fast seismic hazard response. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We examine vertical load deformation at four continuous Global Positioning System (GPS) sites in southern Greenland relative to Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) predictions of vertical deformation over the period 2002-2016.With limited spatial resolution, GRACE predictions require adjustment before they can be compared with GPS height time series. Without adjustment, both GRACE spherical harmonic (SH) and mascon solutions predict significant vertical displacement rate differences relative to GPS. We use a scaling factor method to adjust GRACE results, based on a long-term mass rate model derived from GRACE measurements, glacial geography, and ice flowdata. AdjustedGRACE estimates show significantly improved agreement with GPS, both in terms of long-term rates and interannual variations. A deceleration of mass loss is observed in southern Greenland since early 2013. The success at reconciling GPS and GRACE observations with a more detailed mass rate model demonstrates the high sensitivity to load distribution in regions surrounding GPS stations. Conversely, the value of GPS observations in constraining mass changes in surrounding regions is also demonstrated. In addition, our results are consistent with recent estimates of GIA uplift (~4.4 mm yr-1) at the KULU site. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Pacific Plate subducts beneath the Philippine Sea Plate along the Izu-Bonin Trench. We investigated crustal movements at the Bonin Islands, using Global Navigation Satellite System and geodetic Very Long Baseline Interferometry data to reveal how the two plates converge in this subduction zone. These islands are located ~100 km from the trench, just at the middle between the volcanic arc and the trench, making these islands suitable for detecting signatures of episodic deformation such as slow slip events (SSEs). During 2007-2016, we found five SSEs repeating quasi-periodically with similar displacement patterns. In estimating their fault parameters, we assumed that the fault lies on the prescribed plate boundary, and optimized the size, shape and position of the fault and dislocation vectors. Average fault slip was ~5 cm, and the average moment magnitude was ~6.9.We also found one SSE occurred in 2008 updip of the repeating SSE in response to an M6 class interplate earthquake. In spite of the frequent occurrence of SSEs, there is no evidence for long-term strain accumulation in the Bonin Islands that may lead to future megathrust earthquakes. Plate convergence in Mariana-type subduction zones may occur, to a large extent, episodically as repeating SSEs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Seasonal Vertical Crustal Motions (SVCM) in Yunnan are assessed from 27 continuous Global Positioning System (cGPS) stations observations over the period 2010-2015. Results demonstrate significant SVCM in Yunnan with annual cyclic movements as the dominant pattern, the mean annual cyclic amplitude and initial phase is 9.7 mm and 2.9 months, respectively. These annual cyclic movements exhibit a high degree of spatial uniformity as a whole, while some spatial differences exist across regions. GPS seasonal vertical time-series show strong consistency with GRACE (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment) data, providing further indication that regional deformation exerts a dominant effect on the GPS vertical time-series. Over the period, the Yunnan area featured substantial precipitation that shows significant annual periodicity and a strong correlation with the GPS vertical time-series. The seasonal precipitation is therefore concluded to be the regional dominant factor that governs vertical cyclic crustal movements in this area. Differences in topography and precipitation between western and eastern Yunnan (i.e. across the Jinshajiang-Red River Fault) result in a greater magnitude of SVCM in western Yunnan compared to that in eastern Yunnan. Vertical linear movement rates of Yunnan derived from GPS also exhibit evident differences between eastern and western Yunnan. Therefore, results suggest that the Red River Fault is an important factor in the spatial variability of vertical crustal movements in Yunnan. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An approach of cooperating the BDS, GPS, GLONASS and strong-motion (SM) records for real-time deformation monitoringwas presented, which was validated by the experimental data. In this approach, the Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) data were processed with the real-time kinematic positioning technology to retrieve theGNSSdisplacement, and the SMdata were calibrated to acquire the rawacceleration; a Kalman filterwas then applied to combine the GNSS displacement and the SM acceleration to obtain the integrated displacement, velocity and acceleration. The validation results show that the advantages of each sensor are completely complementary. For the SM, the baseline shifts are estimated and corrected, and the highprecision velocity and displacement are recovered. While the noise of GNSS can be reduced by using the SM-derived high-resolution acceleration, thus the high-precision and broadband deformation information can be obtained in real time. The proposed method indicates a promising potential and capability in deformation monitoring of the high-building, dam, bridge and landslide. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We investigate a numerical performance of four different schemes applied to a regional recovery of the gravity anomalies from the third-order gravitational tensor components (assumed to be observable in the future) synthetized at the satellite altitude of 200 km above the mean sphere. The first approach is based on applying a regional inversion without modelling the far-zone contribution or long-wavelength support. In the second approach we separate integral formulas into two parts, that is, the effects of the third-order disturbing tensor data within near and far zones. Whereas the far-zone contribution is evaluated by using existing global geopotential model (GGM) with spectral weights given by truncation error coefficients, the near-zone contribution is solved by applying a regional inversion. We then extend this approach for a smoothing procedure, in which we remove the gravitational contributions of the topographic-isostatic and atmospheric masses. Finally, we apply the remove-compute-restore (r-c-r) scheme in order to reduce the far-zone contribution by subtracting the reference (long-wavelength) gravity field, which is computed for maximum degree 80. We apply these four numerical schemes to a regional recovery of the gravity anomalies from individual components of the third-order gravitational tensor as well as from their combinations, while applying two different levels of a white noise. We validated our results with respect to gravity anomalies evaluated at the mean sphere from EGM2008 up to the degree 250. Not surprisingly, better fit in terms of standard deviation (STD) was attained using lower level of noise. The worst results were gained applying classical approach, STD values of our solution from Tzzz are 1.705 mGal (noise value with a standard deviation 0.01 x 10 -15m-1s-2) and 2.005 mGal (noise value with a standard deviation 0.05 x 10-15m-1s-2), while the superior from r-c-r up to the degree 80, STD fit of gravity anomalies from Tzzz with respect to the same counterpart from EGM2008 is 0.510 mGal (noise value with a standard deviation 0.01 x 10-15m-1s-2) and 1.190 mGal (noise value with a standard deviation 0.05 x 10-15m-1s-2). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

GPS velocity fields in the Western US have been interpreted with various physical models of the lithosphere-asthenosphere system: (1) time-independent block models; (2) time-dependent viscoelastic-cycle models, where deformation is driven by viscoelastic relaxation of the lower crust and upper mantle from past faulting events; (3) viscoelastic block models, a time-dependent variation of the block model. All three models are generally driven by a combination of loading on locked faults and (aseismic) fault creep. Here we construct viscoelastic block models and viscoelastic-cycle models for the Western US, focusing on the Pacific Northwest and the earthquake cycle on the Cascadia megathrust. In the viscoelastic block model, the western US is divided into blocks selected from an initial set of 137 microplates using the method of Total Variation Regularization, allowing potential trade-offs between faulting and megathrust coupling to be determined algorithmically from GPS observations. Fault geometry, slip rate, and locking rates (i.e. the locking fraction times the long term slip rate) are estimated simultaneously within the TVR block model. For a range of mantle asthenosphere viscosity (4.4 x 1018 to 3.6 x 1020 Pa s) we find that fault locking on the megathrust is concentrated in the uppermost 20 km in depth, and a locking rate contour line of 30 mm yr-1 extends deepest beneath the Olympic Peninsula, characteristics similar to previous time-independent block model results. These results are corroborated by viscoelastic-cycle modelling. The average locking rate required to fit the GPS velocity field depends on mantle viscosity, being higher the lower the viscosity. Moreover, for viscosity ≲ 1020 Pa s, the amount of inferred locking is higher than that obtained using a time-independent block model. This suggests that time-dependent models for a range of admissible viscosity structures could refine our knowledge of the locking distribution and its epistemic uncertainty. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

By introducing two types of zenith troposphere delay (ZTD) products in precise point positioning (PPP), we developed the ZTD-corrected PPP and the ZTD-constrained PPP, both of them reduced the PPP convergence time. Both enhanced PPP methods are examined by global empirical ZTD models and regional ZTD corrections. For global ZTD models, we verified that ZTD-corrected PPP will deviate the positioning results, while ZTD-constrained PPP could produce unbiased estimations. Therefore, the latter is utilized to study the performance of global ZTD models (ITG, GPT2w, GZTD and UNB3m). After numerous experiments, we found that the performance of ZTD models was positively related to the real ZTD accuracy, and we proposed a universal tropospheric stochastic model 2SQR(9rms) which denotes double the square of nine times ZTD rms, to constrain ZTD in PPP. The proposed model subsequently was validated by real-time static and kinematic ZTD-constrained PPP on the premise that the ZTD rms on every stationwas known. Compared with traditional PPP, in static PPP, the number of improved stations is increased by 15.5 per cent (ITG), 14.4 per cent (GPT2w), 11.1 per cent (GZTD) and 8.3 per cent (UNB3m). For kinematic PPP, PPP constrained by ITG model still had the best performance, the number of improved stations is increased by 14.4 per cent, after 30 min of initialization time, 13.4 cm east, 13.4 cm north and 11.7 cm up positioning accuracy was obtained, compared with 15.3 cm east, 15.3 cm north and 14.3 cm up accuracy by traditional PPP. In addition, experiments using regional ZTD corrections to enhance real-time PPP showed that both ZTD-corrected PPP and ZTD-constrained PPP can notably reduce the convergence time on the vertical component (within 15 cm). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study, we present a new synthesis of GPS velocities for tectonic deformation within the Tibetan Plateau and its surrounding areas, a combined data set of ~1854 GPS-derived horizontal velocity vectors. Assuming that crustal deformation is localized along major faults, a block modelling approach is employed to interpret the GPS velocity field. We construct a 30-element block model to describe present-day deformation in western China, with half of them located within the Tibetan Plateau, and the remainder located in its surrounding areas. We model the GPS velocities simultaneously for the effects of block rotations and elastic strain induced by the bounding faults. Our model yields a good fit to the GPS data with a mean residual of 1.08 mm a-1 compared to the mean uncertainty of 1.36 mm a-1 for each velocity component, indicating a good agreement between the predicted and observed velocities. The major strike-slip faults such as the Altyn Tagh, Xianshuihe, Kunlun and Haiyuan faults have relatively uniform slip rates in a range of 5-12 mm a-1 along most of their segments, and the estimated fault slip rates agree well with previous geologic and geodetic results. Blocks having significant residuals are located at the southern and southeastern Tibetan Plateau, suggesting complex tectonic settings and further refinement of accurate definition of block geometry in these regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We revisit the problem of coseismic rupture of the 2008 Mw7.9Wenchuan earthquake. Precise determination of the fault structure and slip distribution provides critical information about the mechanical behaviour of the fault system and earthquake rupture. We use all the geodetic data available, craft a more realistic Earth structure and fault model compared to previous studies, and employ a nonlinear inversion scheme to optimally solve for the fault geometry and slip distribution. Compared to a homogeneous elastic half-space model and laterally uniform layered models, adopting separate layered elastic structure models on both sides of the Beichuan fault significantly improved data fitting. Our results reveal that: (1) The Beichuan fault is listric in shape, with near surface fault dip angles increasing from ~36° at the southwest end to ~83° at the northeast end of the rupture. (2) The fault rupture style changes from predominantly thrust at the southwest end to dextral at the northeast end of the fault rupture. (3) Fault slip peaks near the surface for most parts of the fault, with~8.4mthrust and ~5 m dextral slip near Hongkou and ~6 m thrust and ~8.4 m dextral slip near Beichuan, respectively. (4) The peak slips are located around fault geometric complexities, suggesting that earthquake style and rupture propagation were determined by fault zone geometric barriers. Such barriers exist primarily along restraining left stepping discontinuities of the dextralcompressional fault system. (5) The seismic moment released on the fault above 20 km depth is 8.2×1021 N m, corresponding to an Mw7.9 event. The seismic moments released on the local slip concentrations are equivalent to events of Mw7.5 at Yingxiu-Hongkou, Mw7.3 at Beichuan-Pingtong, Mw7.2 near Qingping, Mw7.1 near Qingchuan, and Mw6.7 near Nanba, respectively. (6) The fault geometry and kinematics are consistent with a model in which crustal deformation at the eastern margin of the Tibetan plateau is decoupled by differential motion across a decollement in the mid crust, above which deformation is dominated by brittle reverse faulting and below which deformation occurs by viscous horizontal shortening and vertical thickening. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Traditional processing of Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) data using dedicated scientific software has provided the highest levels of positional accuracy, and has been used extensively in geophysical deformation studies. To achieve these accuracies a significant level of understanding and training is required, limiting their availability to the general scientific community. Various online GNSS processing services, now freely available, address some of these difficulties and allow users to easily process their own GNSS data and potentially obtain high quality results. Previous research into these services has focused on Continually Operating Reference Station (CORS) GNSS data. Less research exists on the results achievable with these services using large campaign GNSS data sets, which are inherently noisier than CORS data. Even less research exists on the quality of velocity fields derived from campaign GNSS data processed through online precise point positioning services. Particularly, whether they are suitable for geodynamic and deformation studies where precise and reliable velocities are needed. In this research, we process a very large campaign GPS data set (spanning 10 yr) with the online Jet Propulsion Laboratory Automated Precise Positioning Service. This data set is taken from a GNSS network specifically designed and surveyed to measure deformation through the central North Island of New Zealand. This includes regional CORS stations. We then use these coordinates to derive a horizontal and vertical velocity field. This is the first time that a large campaign GPS data set has been processed solely using an online service and the solutions used to determine a horizontal and vertical velocity field. We compared this velocity field to that of another well utilized GNSS scientific software package. The results show a good agreement between the CORS positions and campaign station velocities obtained from the two approaches. We discuss the implications of these results for how future GNSS campaign field surveys might be conducted and how their data might be processed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Convergence of the Africa, Arabia, and Eurasia plates and the westward escape of Anatolia have resulted in an evolving plate boundary zone in the Eastern Mediterranean. The current location and nature of the plate boundary between the Anatolian and the African plate is difficult to trace due to the scattered crustal earthquakes and the absence of deep ones. We examine various types and locations for the plate boundary as constrained by seismicity, seismic reflection studies, tomographic studies, and geodetic measurements and we use a spherical plane stress finite element model to test these possibilities. In our regional model, we impose the convergence of Africa, Arabia, and stable Eurasia by applying GPS-derived velocities in the far-field, as well as the roll-back of the Hellenic trench to solve for regional deformation. Model velocity and stress fields are compared with GPS-derived velocities and stress directions from focal mechanism solutions. We find that the plate boundary via the Pliny and Strabo trenches, the Anaximander Mountains, the Eratosthenes Seamount collisional segment, and the Latakia-Larnaka ridges gives the best fit to the data. The Anaximander Mountains plate boundary has both down-dip and strike-slip motions, and the Latakia segment is pure strike-slip. The Cyprus subduction contact is 42% locked. From a combined analysis of indicators for long-term deformation (predominantly slip-rates on major faults) and model results we infer that this southern plate boundary configuration may have existed since the Late Pliocene. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]