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Mit dem Warentransport sind zahlreiche negative externe Effekte verbunden. Aufgrund eines Marktversagens werden zu viele Güter über weite Strecken transportiert. Maßnahmen zur Internalisierung, wie die Einführung von Auflagen, Verboten sowie Steuern, Abgaben und handelbaren Zertifikaten, zielen darauf ab, die externen Kosten zu berücksichtigen. In einigen Bereichen werden solche Eingriffe jedoch unterlassen. Eine umfassende Literaturrecherche zeigt, dass die mit dem Warentransport verbundenen externen Kosten nur teilweise internalisiert und somit preiswirksam sind. Mittels eines quantitativen Modells wird in einer Szenarioanalyse untersucht, wie sich eine Internalisierung der externen Kosten von Handelsaktivitäten in Form eines Preisaufschlags auswirken würde. Wie die Ergebnisse zeigen, könnte die Umsetzung von Transportkostenwahrheit im Extra-EU-Handel mit einer leichten Steigerung des realen Bruttoinlandsproduktes und der Beschäftigung in der EU einhergehen, sofern die Einnahmen dieser Handelsaufschläge wieder in den Wirtschaftskreislauf zurückgeführt werden. Die Analyse benennt Handlungsoptionen zur Herstellung von Transportkostenwahrheit im internationalen Handel.

Carbon pricing is a key instrument for achieving Europe's ambitious climate targets. It is therefore not surprising that reform of the EU carbon market is at the heart of the measures proposed by the European Commission (EC). One important policy innovation would be the introduction of a second emissions trading system in Europe that integrates other sectors like buildings and road transport. This addresses some of the inefficiencies of the existing, fragmented EU carbon markets, but at the same time requires a policy decision with potentially large implications in terms of economic costs to achieve European climate goals: How should the EU carbon budget be divided between two separate carbon markets? Achieving the EU climate target of 55 per cent causes a decrease in the aggregate consumption level of the EU-27 countries of 2.8 per cent or 248.9 billion euros in 2030 under current EU climate policy (without considering possible benefits from avoided climate change damages). A new emissions trading system reduces these costs by 21.5 per cent under the current allocation of the EU climate budget and by 33.0 per cent under the allocation proposed by the European Commission. Larger cost reductions of up to 61.6 per cent are possible if an even larger emissions budget is allocated to the buildings and transport sectors. Given the difficulties to politically determine the allocation of the EU climate budget, market-based flexibility mechanisms are desirable in order to achieve climate targets at the lowest economic cost.

This paper simulates the impact that Covid-19 related job losses will have on family incomes and the public finances. It finds that in the central ‘medium’ unemployment scenario of 600,000 job losses, around 400,000 families will see their disposable income fall by more than 20 per cent in the absence of policy changes, with proportionately larger losses for those in higher income families. Measures announced by the Government – notably the flat-rate Pandemic Unemployment Payment of €350 per week – reduce the numbers exposed to such extreme losses by about a third, but at significant cost to the Exchequer. The paper also finds that the additional cost of the Government’s Temporary Wage Subsidy Scheme may be minimal, in part because its current design is less generous to lower earners than the Pandemic Unemployment Payment they would receive if laid off.

This paper presents scenarios of the shutdown costs in terms of lost value added for Austria, France, Italy, Germany, Spain, Switzerland and UK. The shutdown phase will lead to considerable production losses and large declines in GDP this year. Lasting longer than a month, the losses within the EU quickly reach dimensions well beyond the growth slump of previous recessions or natural disasters. Shutdown costs justify almost every conceivable investment in health policy measures which allow to combine a resumption of production with further fight against the epidemic.

This study uses scenario calculations to estimate the economic costs of the partial closure of the economy due to the coronavirus epidemic. With a shutdown duration of two months, the costs reach between EUR 255 billion and EUR 495 billion, depending on the scenario, and reduce the annual growth rate of GDP by between 7.2 and 11.2 percentage points; with a shutdown duration of three months they reach EUR 354 to 729 billion (10.0 to 20.6 percentage points growth loss). On the labor market, up to 1.8 million jobs subject to social security contributions (1.35 million full-time equivalents) could be cut and more than six million employees could be affected by short-time work. Public budgets will be burdened by up to EUR 200 billion, not including the extensive planned guarantees and loans. For political decisions it is particularly relevant to know how expensive it is to extend the shutdown. We see that a single week of extension will cause additional costs of EUR 25 to 57 billion and thus a decline in GDP growth of 0.7 to 1.6 percentage points. Given these costs, it is particularly urgent to develop strategies to make the resumption of economic activity compatible with containing the coronavirus epidemic.

This article investigates the trade-off between increasing welfare losses and increasing peak-warming if a temperature target is reformulated as a subsidiary concentration or cumulative emissions target. We apply a welfare maximizing integrated assessment model for a deterministic cost-effectiveness analysis to identify the associated costs of a certain climate target.We find that the use of subsidiary targets, a common practice in integrated climate modeling, increases losses by at least 12% for time-limited concentration targets that allow for a peak before concentration stabilizes. For all-time concentration targets we find that losses increase at least by 50%. Under all-time cumulative emissions targets losses rise by at least 20%. If the subsidiary all-time targets are forced to have equal cost as their parental maximum-warming target, all-time cumulative emissions (concentration) targets overshoot by more than 0.1°C (0.2°C). Generally, among the investigated subsidiary targets, we find all-time cumulative emissions targets and time-limited concentration targets to behave most similar to the parental temperature targets.

Commercial policies are often only efficient insofar as those harmed can be compensated. In practice, compensatory measures fall far short of distributive harm. We rationalize the paucity of compensation as a strategic effort on the part of elected officials to withhold information about effects of their policy initiatives. We develop a formal model in which citizens must infer the effects of a policy initiative as well as the politician's commitments from the choice to offer compensation. We find that committed policymakers under-provide compensation to avoid electoral backlash. Using microdata from the US Trade Adjustment Assistance program, we replicate a research design that uses exogenous allocation of petitions for assistance across bureaucrats for causal identification. We find that a ten percent increase in the TAA certification rate decreases support for Democratic candidates by 1:75% in areas hard hit by import-competition. This electoral effect incentivizes pro-distributive politicians to under-provide economic assistance.

Die Tabaksteuer soll die externen Kosten des Tabakkonsums internalisieren. Mithilfe einer Längsschnittbetrachtung von Querschnittsdaten werden erstmals die extern anfallenden Nettokosten des Rauchens in Deutschland saldiert. Im Ergebnis führt Rauchen netto eher zu einer Entlastung als einer Belastung von Sozialversicherten und Steuerzahlern. Weitere Tabaksteuererhöhungen lassen sich daher aus bloßer Kostenperspektive schwer rechtfertigen. A longitudinal view of cross sectional data allows the authors to quantify the external costs and savings of tobacco consumption in Germany. The lower life expectancies of smokers are accounted for. The calculation is expenditure oriented and considers the given institutional framework of the German social security system. The results show that smokers are actually net contributors to the social security system.

Die empirische Auswertung der Erfahrungen mit den Erhöhungen der Grunderwerbsteuer seit der Föderalismusreform zeigt, dass die Grunderwerbsteuer mit relativ hohen volkswirtschaftlichen Kosten einhergeht. Die Föderalismusreform hat den Ländern damit ein vergleichsweise teures Einnahmeninstrument verschafft. Dass die Länder dennoch so rege von der Steuer Gebrauch machen, könnte durch einen hohen Finanzmittelbedarf erklärt werden, der angesichts mangelnder Steuerautonomie nicht anders gedeckt werden kann. Eine alternative Erklärung ist, dass die volkswirtschaftlichen Kosten dieser Steuer ignoriert oder unterschätzt werden. Zwar ist die Grunderwerbsteuer in die Einnahmenverteilung im Rahmen des Finanzausgleichs eingebunden. Allerdings geht nicht das Aufkommen selbst in die Berechnungen der Finanzkraft ein, sondern nur die Höhe der steuerbaren Transaktionen. Je stärker Anzahl und Werte dieser Transaktionen als Folge eines höheren Steuersatzes zurückgehen, umso mehr fällt die im Rahmen des Finanzausgleichs ermittelte Finanzkraft eines Bundeslandes, das den Steuersatz erhöht. In der Folge erhält dieses Bundesland mehr Zuweisungen aus dem Länderfinanzausgleich bzw. muss geringere Beiträge an andere Länder leisten.

Globalization has both costs and benefits. In this paper we would focus upon one of the damages of globalization to China. It is said that inward FDI replaces local domestic capabilities in import-substitution countries. In the case of China the Chinese domestic industries are lacking technological innovations because of heavy reliance upon FDI. Most of the Chinese exports of electronics are carried under FDI whereas in Korea and Japan they are indigenously-driven. In 1960s, Korea received foreign capital in the form of loans but it denied the entrance to foreign firms. Korea followed the Japanese model by quickly mastering the foreign technology rather than letting foreign firms to establish local subsidiaries and to decide the speed and scope of technology diffusion. Korea and Japan adopted the techno-nationalist policies for attaining autonomous domestic innovated industries. By restricting FDI, Korea and Japan were able to maintain their management independent of Multi-National Companies. In this paper we would try to analyze that whether China's policy of reliance upon FDI is a success or a debacle by comparing it with Korea and Japan.

Viele Menschen in Deutschland wunschen sich die D-Mark zuruck. Dieser Beitrag analysiert die okonomischen Vor- und Nachteile eines deutschen Euro-Austritts. Gemessen an einem Vergleich der Infl ationsraten und des Wachstumspotentials schneidet der Euro besser als die D-Mark ab. Zudem ware eine erneute Wahrungsumstellung teuer und wurde die weltweiten Finanzmarkte destabilisieren. Selbst die im Rahmen der Transferunion zu erwartenden hohen deutschen Leistungen wurden einen Austritt aus der Europaischen Wahrungsunion nicht rechtfertigen.

Reducing greenhouse gas emissions not only lowers expected damages from climate change but also reduces the risk of catastrophic impacts. However, estimates of the social cost of carbon, which measures the marginal value of carbon dioxide abatement, often do not capture this risk reduction benefit. Risk-averse individuals are willing to pay a risk premium, an additional amount beyond the difference in expected damages, to reduce risks. The authors review methods used and estimates obtained for calculating a risk premium to be included in the social cost of carbon. While more research is needed in this area, work to date suggests a positive, and potentially substantial, risk premium on the social cost of carbon is warranted.

Recent thinking about the economics of climate change has concerned the uncertainty about the upper bound of both climate sensitivity to greenhouse gases and the damages that might occur at high temperatures. This argument suggests that the appropriate probability distributions for these factors may be fat-tailed. The matter of tail shape has important implications for the calculation of the social cost of carbon dioxide (SCCO2). In this paper a probabilistic integrated assessment model is adapted to allow for the possibility of a thin, intermediate or fat tail for both (i) the climate sensitivity parameter and (ii) the damage function exponent. Results show that depending on the tail shape of the climate sensitivity parameter the mean SCCO2 rises by 29 to 85%. Changes in the mean SCCO2 due to the adjustments to the damage function alone range from a reduction of 7% to a rise of 12%. The combination of both leads to rises of 33 to 115%. Greater rises occur for the upper percentiles of the SCCO2 estimates. Given the uncertainties in both the science and the economics of climate change different tail shapes deserve consideration due to their important implications for the range of possible values for the SCCO2., JRC.J.1-Economics of Climate Change, Energy and Transport

Zusammenfassung: Die Diskussion um eine nachhaltige Entwicklung stellt auch die Verantwortlichen im Verkehrssektor vor die Aufgabe, Nachhaltigkeitsaspekte, insbesondere den Beitrag des Verkehrs zum Ausstos von Klimagasen, bei ihren Entscheidungen zu berucksichtigen. Die Spezifi k des Verkehrssektors besteht jedoch darin, dass die Kosten des Klimawandels nur einen Teil der durch den Verkehr verursachten externen Kosten ausmachen. Deshalb konnen Entscheidungen zur Gestaltung der Verkehrssysteme nicht allein im Rahmen von klimapolitischen Strategien getroffen werden. Davon ausgehend diskutiert dieser Beitrag den Stand der Forschung zur Quantifi zierung der sozialen Grenzkosten des Verkehrs und stellt die Ergebnisse zweier Fallstudien vor. Diese zeigen, dass insbesondere in den Spitzenzeiten die Staugrenzkosten die quantitativ dominante Kategorie der externen Kosten des Strasenverkehrs werden, und dass auch die durch Unfalle, Infrastrukturabnutzung und Larm verursachten Grenzkosten quantitativ bedeutsamer als die mit Klimaveranderungen einhergehenden Grenzkosten sind. Dies verdeutlicht, dass Masnahmen zur Verminderung der Kosten des Klimawandels, so unbestreitbar wichtig sie auch sind, nicht die alleinige Prioritat fur eine nachhaltige Verkehrspolitik haben sollten. Vielmehr erfordert die Bedeutung der anderen Kostenkategorien wie Stau, Unfalle und Larm eine adaquate Berucksichtigung in preis- und investitionspolitischen Entscheidungen der Verkehrspolitik. Summary: The current concern with sustainability rightly requires those involved with transport to consider carefully the sustainability of the transport sector, and in particular its contribution to greenhouse gas emissions. However, it is important to remember that greenhouse gases are just one of the costs of transport systems, and it makes no sense therefore to take decisions about transport systems based on the impact on greenhouse gas emissions alone. Against this background, the paper discusses the state of research in estimating marginal external costs of road transport and presents the results of two case studies. These suggest that under peak traffi c conditions congestion costs are by far the most important externalities of road use. Accidents, wear and tear and noise costs all appear to be more important than global warming. These results stress that reducing global warming costs, important though they are, should not be the sole priority of transport decisions. Our results suggest that other costs are also very important and need to be taken into account in pricing and investment decisions.

In diesem Beitrag werden die bisherigen sowie die zukünftigen Gesamtkosten der Beteiligung Deutschlands am Krieg in Afghanistan geschätzt. Es handelt sich hierbei um eine Berechnung mit zahlreichen Unsicherheitsfaktoren, die auf mehreren wichtigen Annahmen basiert. Es werden verschiedene mögliche Szenarien bezüglich Dauer und Intensität der deutschen Beteiligung am Krieg in Afghanistan berücksichtigt. In einem realistischen Szenario, in dem Deutschland noch einige Jahre in Afghanistan präsent bleibt, schätzen wir die Gesamtkosten der deutschen Beteiligung am Krieg in Afghanistan auf 26 bis 47 Milliarden Euro. Sollte sich Deutschland dazu verpflichten, das Engagement in Afghanistan auszuweiten, und mit stärkerem Widerstand konfrontiert werden, stiegen die Kosten erheblich an. Falls sich Deutschland hingegen 2011 aus Afghanistan zurückzieht, belaufen sich die Gesamtkosten der deutschen Beteiligung am Afghanistankrieg auf 18 bis 33 Milliarden Euro. Diese großen Kostenspannen sind den Unsicherheitsfaktoren zuzuschreiben, auf deren Grundlage die Kosten geschätzt werden mussten. Unseren Schätzungen zufolge kostet jedes weitere Jahr, in dem Deutschland am Einsatz in Afghanistan teilnimmt, zusätzliche 2,5 bis 3 Milliarden Euro. Dies steht im Widerspruch zum offiziellen Kriegsbudget, das für das Jahr 2010 1 059 Millionen Euro beträgt.

In diesem kurzen Aufsatz werden die Kosten des Terrors für den internationalen Handel diskutiert. Unstrittig ist, dass Unsicherheit und Gewalt die wirtschaftliche Aktivität lähmen können. Ob auch terroristische Aktionen, die häufig isolierte Ereignisse darstellen, selten auf direkte Zerstörung zielen und sich einer Vielzahl von unterschiedlichen Methoden bedienen, die Wirtschaftsaktivität spürbar beeinflussen, ist zuletzt zum Gegenstand zahlreicher Untersuchungen geworden. Bei der Identifikation (und insbesondere der Quantifizierung) der Auswirkungen von Terrorismus auf den Handel treten allerdings eine Reihe methodischer Probleme auf; die Bandbreite der Schwierigkeiten reicht von der Erfassung und Kodifizierung terroristischer Aktivitäten bis hin zu möglichen Endogenitätsproblemen. Vor dem Hintergrund dieser ökonometrischen Schätzprobleme scheint es bemerkenswert, dass eine Reihe von Studien mit unterschiedlichem Untersuchungsdesign einen signifikanten negativen Zusammenhang zwischen Terrorismus und Handel dokumentieren. This short essay discusses the costs of terrorism on international trade. While there is little disagreement that insecurity and violence are often serious impediments to economic activity, the effects of terrorism have been discussed extensively in the recent literature. Terrorist attacks are often isolated events; they rarely aim to cause direct destruction; they use a broad range of methods. However, when examining (and quantifying) the effects of terrorism on trade, a broad variety of methodological problems emerge. Potential issues range from gathering and codifying data on terrorist activity to problems of endogeneity. In view of these difficulties in econometric analysis, it is remarkable that a number of studies with varying research designs consistently find a significant negative relationship between terrorism and international trade.

In einem finanzökonomischen Modell zeigt sich, dass der "fiskalische Break-even-Point" 2031 möglich ist. Dann könnten erstmalig die Steuern und Abgaben der erwerbstätigen die Kosten der nicht erwerbstätigen Flüchtlinge übersteigen. Der "ökonomische Break-even-Point" kann bereits 2025 erreicht werden, wenn die Bruttowertschöpfungsbeiträge der dann erwerbstätigen Flüchtlinge die Kosten der Versorgung und Integration der nicht erwerbstätigen Flüchtlinge übersteigen. Voraussetzung sind hohe Investitionen in die individuelle Qualifizierung und eine flexible Anwendung arbeitsmarktpolitischer Instrumente. The high costs of the refugee crisis are often a subject of public discussion. However, one should distinguish between the fiscal and the overall economic effects of this current wave of immigration. A financial economic model shows that the "fiscal break-even" point can be reached by the year 2031. This is the first point at which the taxes and contributions of employed refugees exceed the costs to the public sector resulting from the refugees who are not in the labour market. The "economic break-even" point can be reached as early as 2025 if the gross value added contributions of the employed refugees by that time exceed the costs of caring for and integrating the refugees who are not in employment. This will require a "smart" integration of the refugees into the labour market, requiring high investment in the qualification of individuals and a flexible use of labour policy tools.

We study the feasibility and efficiency of policy reforms in polarized democracies. We develop a simple election model where (i) reforms are costly for voters and politicians and these costs increase with the extent of policy change, and (ii) politicians differ in their ability to carry out reforms efficiently. We identify a so-called Reform Dilemma, which manifests itself in two variants. From a static perspective, low-reform-ability politicians may be elected, who impose high costs on citizens for each reform step. From a dynamic perspective, incumbents may choose socially undesirable policies to align the social need for reform with their own reform ability and are thus re-elected regardless of their reform ability. In general, both manifestations of the Reform Dilemma are more pronounced when political parties' positions are polarized. Furthermore, the existence of the Reform Dilemma is independent of the exact point in time when the abilities of candidates reveal themselves and become common knowledge.

Seit Jahren nimmt Fettleibigkeit in Deutschland zu - mit ernsthaften Folgen für die Betroffenen und die Volkswirtschaft. - Der Anstieg von Adipositas (Fettleibigkeit) in Deutschland verursacht hohe gesellschaftliche Kosten und schränkt die Lebensqualität der Betroffenen erheblich ein. Die Gründe für die Erkrankung können überwiegend von den Patienten selbst beeinflusst werden. Ernährung und Bewegung sollten daher in den Fokus rücken, um eine weitere Ausbreitung zu verhindern. Erste Analysen für Deutschland zeigen, dass die radikalste Form der Adipositastherapie, ein chirurgischer Eingriff, Begleiterkrankungen verringert, aber auch Risiken birgt und kurzfristig keine Kostenvorteile bringt. Operationen sollten darum die Ultima Ratio bleiben.

This paper examines the effects of knowledge diffusion on growth and costs of climate policy. We develop a general equilibrium model with endogenous growth which represents knowledge diffusion between sectors and regions. Knowledge diffusion depends on accessibility and absorptive capacity which we estimate econometrically using patent and citation data. Knowledge diffusion leads to a “greening” of economies boosting productivity of “clean” carbon-extensive sectors. Knowledge diffusion lowers the costs of global climate policy by about 90% for emerging countries (China) and 20% for developed regions (Europe and USA), depending on the substitutability between different knowledge types.

Die Ergebnisse ökonomischer Bewertungen der Auswirkungen des anthropogenen Treibhauseffekts weichen stark voneinander ab. Die Ursache liegt in drei entscheidenden normativen Annahmen, mit dem Ergebnis, dass die monetären Werte der gleichen Klimaauswirkungen um sechs und mehr Größenordnungen auseinander liegen. Der Beitrag veranschaulicht diesen Zusammenhang am Beispiel von Ernteausfällen aufgrund von Klimaveränderungen. Die resultierenden Werte sollten in keinem Fall für eine Abwägung der Kosten und Nutzen der Vermeidung des anthropogenen Treibhauseffekts verwendet werden, wenn nicht zuvor ein gesellschaftlicher Konsens über die zugrunde liegenden normativen Wertentscheidungen erzielt worden ist. Zielführender wäre es, sich auf ein maximal tolerierbares Konzentrationsniveau von Treibhausgasen zu einigen und hieraus maximale jährliche Emissionsmengen für jedes Land abzuleiten. The results of economic evaluations of the effects of anthropogenic climate change diverge significantly. The main reason are three normative assumptions which result in monetary values of the same climate impact diverging by the order of six magnitudes and more. The paper illustrates this problem by taking the case of crop losses due to climate change as an example. The resulting values are inappropriate to balance the cost and benefits of climate change mitigation if not legitimated by a societal consensus about the underlying normative value assessment. Altogether, a consensus about a maximum acceptable concentration of climate gases would seem more appropriate and allow to deduce maximum emissions per year and country.

Auch wenn die im Rahmen des Kyoto-Protokolls von Deutschland eingegangene Verpflichtung zur Reduktion von Treibhausgasen nur auf der Bundesebene völker- bzw. EUrechtlich bindend ist, sind die Bundesländer zunehmend gefordert, regionale Strategien als Antwort auf das globale Klimaproblem zu entwickeln. In diesem Beitrag wird gezeigt, welche methodischen Anforderungen an die Konzeption eines integrierten regionalen Klimaschutzprogramms aus ökonomischer Sicht zu stellen sind und welche praktischen Umsetzungsspielräume angesichts der globalen Dimension des Klimaproblems und des nationalen und internationalen klimapolitischen Rahmens auf regionaler Ebene existieren. Zunächst wird das ökonomische Entscheidungskalkül eines Bundeslandes bei der möglichst kosteneffizienten Erreichung klimapolitischer Ziele und bei der Auswahl geeigneter Anpassungsmaßnahmen gegenüber drohenden Klimaschäden erläutert. Es folgt eine Darstellung der Methodik regionaler Klimaprognosen am Beispiel Hessens bis zum Jahr 2100 sowie der regionalen Auswirkungen des Klimawandels. Erste Schadensabschätzungen für Hessen, Konzepte zur Quantifizierung und Bewertung von Klimaschäden sowie Kategorien und Kosten von Anpassungsmaßnahmen werden aufgezeigt. Einen weiteren Schwerpunkt stellt die Identifizierung regional verfügbarer CO2-Vermeidungsmaßnahmen und deren Kosten dar. Bei der klimapolitischen Zielfestlegung sollte die hohe Mobilität der Produktionsfaktoren über die Landesgrenzen hinweg berücksichtigt werden. Die Korridore für klimapolitische Maßnahmen sind bei der Einführung regionaler Klimaschutzprogramme entsprechend moderat und flexibel zu gestalten. Since the Kyoto protocol has come into force, Germany's federal states are increasingly confronted with the task of undertaking own climate protection measures. This paper introduces the conception of integrated regional climate protection programmes from an economic point of view and points out the scope for their practical implementation at regional level. At first, we explain the federal state's decision problem with respect to a cost-efficient realisation of climate policy targets and the choice of adequate adaptation measures to reduce potential climate damages. The paper continues with an introduction of the methodology of regional climate forecasts (considering as example the development in Hessen until 2100) and with a presentation of the regional impacts of climate change. After providing preliminary estimates of climate damages in Hessen, we discuss concepts for the quantification and evaluation of climate damages as well as categories and costs of adaptation measures. A further main focus is the identification of regionally available CO2-emission reduction measures and their costs.

Future costs arising from climate change and the transformation of the energy system are investigated using a modified version of the Multi-Actor Dynamic Integrated Assessment Model (MADIAM). A cost-benefit analysis is applied to compute optimal business investment scenarios. The economic core of MADIAM describes an economy driven by business striving to maximise profits by investing in physical and human capital. Profits are continually eroded by wage pressures and competition and can be maintained only by investing in human capital (i.e. productivity), which is thus the main driver of economic growth. Future costs accrue from climate damages and the higher expense of non-fossil fuels, which are used either to mitigate climate change or because of declining fossil resources. The impact of various taxation scenarios on the absolute costs, the cost structure and climate change is examined. Mit einer modifizierten Version des Multi-Actor Dynamic Integrated Assessment Model (MADIAM) werden die zukünftigen Kosten des Klimawandels und der Transformation des Energiesektors untersucht. Mittels einer Kosten-Nutzen-Analyse werden optimale Investitionsszenarien der Unternehmen berechnet. Im ökonomischen Kernmodell von MADIAM wird die Wirtschaft von der Profitmaximierung der Unternehmen angetrieben, die dazu in physisches und Humankapital investieren. Profite schrumpfen ständig durch Lohndruck und Wettbewerb und können nur durch Investitionen in Humankapital (d.h. Produktivität) auf Dauer erhalten werden. Diese Investitionen sind daher der wesentliche Wachstumsmotor. Zukünftige Kosten entstehen durch Klimaschäden und die höheren Kosten für nichtfossile Energien, die sowohl zur Vermeidung des Klimawandels als auch zum Ausgleich abnehmender fossiler Ressourcen benutzt werden. Wir untersuchen den Einfluss verschiedener Steuerszenarien auf absolute Kosten, auf deren Zusammensetzung und auf die Klimaänderung.

The Ramsey rule for the consumption rate of discount assumes a transfer of money of a (representative) agent at one point in time to the same agent at another point in time. Climate policy (implicitly) transfers money not just over time but also between agents. I propose three alternative modifications of the Ramsey rule to account for this. Taking the Ramsey rule as given, I derive an intuitively clear but ad hoc modification. Using the assumptions underlying the Ramsey rule, I derive a consistent but more elaborate modification. If the discount rate is differentiated by victim, the consistent modified Ramsey rule is simpler and identical to regional equity weights. I apply the modified Ramsey rules to estimates of the marginal damage costs of carbon dioxide emissions. The results confirm that optimal climate policy has differentiated carbon taxes. Results also show that the standard Ramsey rule drastically underestimates the social cost of carbon.

There is widespread concern that an international agreement on stringent climate policies will not be reached because it would imply too high costs for fast growing economies like China. To quantify these costs we develop a general equilibrium model with fully endogenous growth. The framework includes disaggregated industrial and energy sectors, endogenous innovation, and sector-specific investments. We find that the implementation of Chinese government carbon policies until 2020 causes a welfare reduction of 0.3 percent. For the long run up to 2050 we show that welfare costs of internationally coordinated emission reduction targets lie between 3 and 8 percent. Assuming faster energy technology development, stronger induced innovation, and rising energy prices in the reference case reduces welfare losses significantly. We argue that increased urbanization raises the costs of carbon policies due to altered consumption patterns., Economics Working Paper Series, 14/201

vorgelegt von Gerhard Schmidt Zsfassungen in dt. und engl. Sprache Graz, Univ., Masterarb., 2014

Dividing the burden for greenhouse gas abatement amongst the provinces has proven challenging in Canada, and is a major factor contributing to Canada's poor historic performance on greenhouse gas abatement. As the country aims to achieve substantial cuts to emissions over the next decade and by mid-century, such burden sharing considerations are likely to be elevated in importance. This paper uses a calibrated multi-region multi-sector computable general equilibrium model to compare a number of archetypal rules for sharing the burden of a joint commitment amongst members for the case of greenhouse gas reductions in Canada. Because of the substantial heterogeneity amongst Canadian provinces, these different burden sharing rules imply signifcantly different relative abatement effort amongst provinces, and also signifcantly different welfare implications. When emission permits are allocated on an equal per capita basis, welfare is increased in Ontario, British Columbia, Quebec, and Manitoba, and signifcantly reduced in Alberta and Saskatchewan. In contrast, when emission permits are allocated based on historic emissions, Alberta and Saskatchewan are made better off, and Ontario, British Columbia, Quebec, and Manitoba are made worse off. We compare these archetypal burden sharing rules to existing provincial emission reduction commitments, and find that none of the standard burden sharing rules comes close to existing commitments. We argue that the debate on burden sharing of greenhouse gas abatement in Canada could be objectified if informed by coherent quantitative analysis such as the one presented here.

The current negotiations on a transatlantic Free-Trade Agreement between the US and the EU (TTIP) have raised substantial public interest. Several studies have highlighted the positive economic effects of TTIP. A new ÖFSE report shows that these claims are overstated and neglect crucial adjustment costs and the social costs of regulatory change.

International climate negotiations take place in a setting where uncertainties regarding the impacts of climate change are very large. In this paper, we examine the influence of increasing the probability and impact of large climate change damages, also known as the 'fat tail', on the formation of an international mitigation agreement. We systematically vary the shape and location of the distribution of climate change damages using the stochastic version of the applied game-theoretical STACO model. Our aim is to identify how changes to the distributional form affect the stability of coalitions and their performance. We find that fatter upper tails increase the likelihood that more ambitious coalitions are stable as well as the performance of these stable coalitions. Fatter tails thus imply more successful, or 'fatter', international climate agreements.

We extend the model of Fullerton, Karney, and Baylis (2012 working paper) to explore cost-effectiveness of unilateral climate policy in the presence of leakage. We ignore the welfare gain from reducing greenhouse gas emissions and focus on the welfare cost of the emissions tax or permit scheme. Whereas that prior paper solves for changes in emissions quantities and finds that leakage maybe negative, we show here that all cases with negative leakage in that model are cases where a unilateral carbon tax results in a welfare loss. With positive leakage, however, a unilateral policy can improve welfare.

Gegenstand der vorliegenden Arbeit ist die Internalisierung der externen Kosten des Straßenpersonenverkehrs in Deutschland unter besonderer Betrachtung der sozialen Auswirkungen bei Einsatz preislicher Internalisierungsmaßnahmen. Die verschiedenen externen Effekte im Verkehrsbereich werden eingangs dargestellt. Für das Beispiel des Straßenverkehrs in Deutschland wird anschließend der Handlungsbedarf anhand konkreter Kostengrößen verdeutlicht. Für eine Internalisierung der externen Kosten des Straßenverkehrs werden ökonomische Instrumenten wie Straßenbenutzungsabgaben, Energiesteuern sowie Anpassungen des Versicherungssystems vorgeschlagen. Im Folgenden werden die potentiellen Hürden eines Einsatzes ökonomischer Internalisierungsinstrumente wie ungerechte soziale Auswirkungen näher betrachtet. Den ungleichen sozialen Auswirkungen einer Internalisierung sollte durch eine gezielte Einnahmenverwendung entgegengewirkt werden. This paper deals with the internalisation of external effects of road transport in Germany with special consideration of social effects. Different types of external effects are described and the relevance for internalisation policy are clarified on the basis of concrete cost figures. Specific economic measures for internalisation are recommended like road pricing, energy taxation and modifications of the insurance system. The focus lies on negative social effects of pricing measures. Problems like unequal distribution can be prevented by a well-aimed use of revenue. The central finding is that an internalisation strategy should be accompanied by a partial refund of revenues to low-income persons.

This paper presents an adjusted Faustmann Rule for optimal harvest of a forest in the presence of a social cost of carbon emissions. A contribution of the paper is to do this within theoretical and numerical frameworks that take account of the dynamics and interactions of the forest's multiple carbon pools within an infinite time horizon model. With our less restrictive assumptions we find that a social cost of carbon has a significantly stronger effect on the optimal harvest age than found in earlier studies. Considered is also how increased use of harvest residues for energy purposes and storage of carbon in building materials and furniture should influence the length of the rotation period. The theoretical results are quantified within a numerical framework.

In 2010, the U.S. government adopted its first consistent estimates of the social cost of carbon (SCC) for government-wide use in regulatory cost-benefit analysis. Here, the authors examine a number of limitations of the estimates identified in the U.S. government report and elsewhere and review recent advances that could pave the way for improvements. The authors consider in turn socio-economic scenarios, treatment of physical climate response, damage estimates, ways of incorporating risk aversion, and consistency between SCC estimates and broader climate policy., Robert E. Kopp was supported through August 2011 by an appointment to the U.S. Department of Energy under the American Association for the Advancement of Science Fellowship Program administered by Oak Ridge Institute for Science and Education.

Recent contributions have questioned whether biofuels policies actually lead to emissions reductions, and thus lower climate costs. In this paper we make two contributions to the literature. First, we study the market effects of a renewable fuel standard. Opposed to most previous studies we model the supply of fossil fuels taking into account that fossil fuels is a non-renewable resource. Second, we model emissions from land use change explicitly when we evaluate the climate effects of the renewable fuel standard. We find that extraction of fossil fuels most likely will decline initially as a consequence of the standard. Thus, if emissions from biofuels are sufficiently low, the standard will have beneficial climate effects. Furthermore, we find that the standard tends to reduce total fuel (i.e., oil plus biofuels) consumption initially. Hence, even if emissions from biofuels are substantial, climate costs may be reduced. Finally, if only a subset of countries introduce a renewable fuel standard, there will be carbon leakage to the rest of the world. However, climate costs may decline as global extraction of fossil fuels is postponed. Research Council of Norway Swedish research foundation Mistra

Background: The aim of the study was to determine the costs of treating schizophrenia from the perspective of the statutory health insurance, as well as the identification of predictors of hospitalisation of formerly stable schizophrenia patients. Methods: Claims data for the years 2004-2006 were analysed. Patients who did not have to be treated in a hospital as a result of an ICD diagnosis F20 both in the year 2005 as well as also in 2006 were defined as stable patients. In contrast, those patients who had to be treated in a hospital in 2006 because of a diagnosis of schizophrenia were defined as unstable. In addition to the overall healthcare costs, the costs specific to schizophrenia were also analysed. Also, based on binary logistic regression analysis, predictors for hospital treatment were determined. Results: 8497 stable and 1449 unstable patients were identified. The schizophrenia specific costs for stable patients were € 1605 and the overall costs were € 4029 in 2006, respectively. Unstable patients had indication-specific costs amounting to € 12864 and overall health care costs of € 16824. For unstable patients, the costs of hospital treatment were identified as being a substantial cost area. Predictors for a higher probability of hospital treatment were: female patients, at least one rehabilitation measure, at least one stay in hospital in 2004, and being co-morbid with substance abuse. In contrast, older patients, who were treated with concomitant medications, and if they received a continuous drug therapy in all quarters of a year had a lower probability of hospitalisation. In addition, an increased number of visits to a doctor reduced the probability of hospitalisation. The variable 'depot medication' were close to significance and the variable 'inability to work lasting more than six weeks' had, in contrast, no significant influence. Conclusions: The schizophrenia specific and overall health care costs of unstable patients were clearly higher than was the case with stable patients and mainly determined by inpatient hospital treatment. A range of potential predicting factors which can be extracted from routine claims data have a positive or negative influence on the probability of treatment in hospital. Keywords: Schizophrenia, Claims data, Hospitalisation, Costs, Predictors, Germany

We use publicly available price data from the German cement industry to estimate the cartelinduced price increase. We apply two different comparator-based approaches - the 'before and-after' approach and the 'difference-in-differences' approach - and especially study the impact of various assumptions on the transition period from the cartel period to the non-cartel period on the overcharge estimate. We find that the cement cartel led to price overcharges in a range from 20.3 to 26.5 percent depending on model approach and model assumptions.

Rapid ageing of the population globally represents an unprecedented historical trend. As pension and healthcare costs are positively correlated with rising incomes, ageing, urbanization, and a shift from communicable to life-style diseases, managing these costs is a major challenge. There are many linkages between healthcare and pension arrangements - in terms of costs, exposure to risks, and as they jointly impact on crucial policy decisions. This paper discusses the rationale for coordination between various programs to better manage the cost of ageing. The current difficult macroeconomic environment, including fiscal stringency conditions, strengthens the case for such coordination.

The European Central Bank (ECB) carried out a study of the social and private costs of different payment instruments with the participation of 13 national central banks in the European System of Central Banks (ESCB). It shows that the costs to society of providing retail payment services are substantial. On average, they amount to almost 1% of GDP for the sample of participating EU countries. Half of the social costs are incurred by banks and infrastructures, while the other half of all costs are incurred by retailers. The social costs of cash payments represent nearly half of the total social costs, while cash payments have on average the lowest costs per transaction, followed closely by debit card payments. However, in some countries, cash does not always yield the lowest unit costs. Despite countries’ own market characteristics, the European market for retail payments can be grouped into fi ve distinct payment clusters with respect to the social costs of payment instruments, market development, and payment behaviour. The results from the present study may trigger a constructive debate about which policy measures and payment instruments are suitable for improving social welfare and realising potential cost savings along the transaction value chain.