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A model for corn and soybean futures trading in the USA and Japan is provided. There are price relationships for similar futures contracts.

The prices of soybean, wheat and corn futures have gone down to their lowest levels since the 1970s due to a global glut in these commodities and aided in part by good weather. However, US farmers are still expected to plant a record 73.1 million acres of soybeans in 1999. Wheat struck a 26-year low with only 63 million acres to be planted for the year. An estimated 78.2 million acres would be planted with corn but this is also the lowest level since 1995., Thanks to a government loan program, the only highs soybeans are hitting these days are record plantings, forcing prices to lows not seen since the 1970s. Corn and wheat are [...]

Analysis of the futures spread risk involved in soybean multiyear hedge-to-arrive (HTA) contracts provides a quantitative description of the monetary risks that arise from such contracts. This study examined the old crop-new crop futures price spreads from 1948 to 1997 and related monetary risks that go with making the transition from old crop to new crop futures contracts. Findings revealed that the chance of having a negative old crop-new crop spread is about 75% for all the years covered although a 100% probability was found for the high-price years. Therefore, a multiyear HTA is not a reliable hedge.

The alleged manipulation attempt of the Jul. 1989 soybean futures market is analyzed to prove whether publicly available data support its existence and to determine if the actions taken by the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) significantly affected the soybean market. Results show a significant difference in spreads and concentration in 1989 than in other years, which match expectations if a long manipulation attempt was being undertaken. The CBOT's liquidation order seems to have had dramatic effects on returns.

An empirical test is done on the independence of futures prices of six agricultural products traded at the Chicago Board of Trade, namely, corn, wheat, oats, soybean, soybean meal and soybean oil. Using data on daily settlement prices for the period Jan. 2, 1981 to Oct. 24, 1991 involving 2,734 observations for each contract, it is hypothesized that the prices of these commodities move independently. Results indicate that the price discovery function of a commodity futures contract is important information to other related commodity futures contracts.

Time-varying hedge ratios are derived which account for the dynamic characteristics of prices in the soybean complex. A multivariate generalized autoregressive heteroskedastic (MGARCH) model, along with other conditional models, is [...]

Significant results of previous researches on the soybean complex are discussed. The profitability of intraday trades based solely on gross processing margin is evaluated. The soy crush spread involves combining a long position in soybeans with short positions in meal and oil. The results suggest that, for sufficiently large filter sizes, the treading rule is profitable during the sample periods covered. Thus, this open-to-close day trading strategy can be exploited by floor traders operating in the soybean pits.

The development of a better prototype of the variance of changes in futures prices including information, market structure and economic variables led to the discovery of the nonlinear nature of the Samuelson effect, the limited importance of seasonal variables, the reduction of price volatility due to speculation, the increase of volatility when large traders on the short side enjoy a consolidation of open interest, and the existence of a clear distributed lag in the models.

The technical indicators used in soybean futures trading are examined using the Markov chain analysis. The Markov indicator assumes there is movement from one market situation to all other possible situations. These situations are changes in price, volume and open interest given a certain period of time. Directional changes made in previous studies focused on price levels other supplementary information considered insignificant. Certain market conditions show characteristics of strong indicators of reversals.

Bulls keep thinking this is the season grain and soybean prices will turn up. Then they run into a realty check: Too much supply for too little demand, exacerbated by [...]

Canadian canolas are genetically altered form of rapeseeds that are becoming a popular source of polyunsaturated vegetable oil. Stocks of this commodity are being traded at the Winnipeg Commodity Exchange. A comparison of the spread trading opportunities of other vegetable oil products, such as cottonseed, palm and sunflower oil, shows that canola oil can become soybean oil's closest competitor. Thus, it is believed that cooperation between Chicago Board of Trade, which handles soybean trading, and the Winnipeg Commodity Exchange can broaden US-Canadian option trading., A closer look at Chicago soybeans vs. Winnipeg canola suggests this cross-border spread may offer more speculative reward than initially apparent. Has the line 'I'm a big player in the [...]

A low-risk option strategy can be used to take advantage of large moves in soybean price patterns. Since the pattern of the worst bear breaks occur from early seasons patterns that appear like bull markets, speculators can use option spreads to limit risks for early season rallies. Delta management is recommended for patterns similar to the mid-Dec. 1996 market. This allows traders to recoup initial premium., A look at the historical behavior of November soybean prices reveals interesting patterns. We'll show how to use a low-risk option strategy to capitalize on large moves. We all have [...]

The grain and oilseed markets have made a historic and unprecedented performance. Corn reached an all-time high in Apr. 1996 and surpassed its 1980 mark of $4.19-1/4. Wheat also followed in the bull market and made impressive rallies. Soybeans was also a third leader but did not become an independent market. Lands put in the Acreage Reduction Program and the increased demand from Pacific Rim countries due to cheap prices have caused the rallies of the grains market., High exports, low inventories and the question of weather all contribute to the huge moves in the grains markets. Corn and wheat have hit the fast track - and could [...]

Crop problems caused a high demand for wheat in Australia, China, the former Soviet Union and Canada and led wheat stocks to plunge. As a result, wheat ending stock projections for 1994-1995 were even lower than the 1981-1982 projections, which are the lowest since the 1970s. Market analysts believe that the tight supply-and-demand relationship will cause prices of wheat futures contracts to increase. Wheat's higher value is also expected to cause corn and beans futures to drop., Global grain demand is on the rise across the board, but only wheat faces a tight stocks situation. Otherwise, it's a buyer's market for beans and corn. Tremendous 1994 crops [...]

After four months of economic reform, Brazil may be bogging down. Conditions are bringing new meaning to the term 'stagflation' with the nation trying to handle a stagnant economy amid [...]

Bulls & bears tug at beans Soybean traders are getting conflicting fundamental signals as farmers prepare to get this year's crop in the ground. One commercial floor broker notes that [...]

So much soy Soybeans should see a long, slow slide from oversupply unless Mother Nature intervenes in South America. The USDA says ending stocks for U.S. soybeans should be up [...]

Hartzmark's model for future demand is used in assessing the impact of margin requirements on the activity and volatility of futures markets using data from the soybean and corn markets. Results indicate that as contracts mature, trading becomes more sensitive to margin changes. This finding negates the observation that margins present significant opportunity costs for futures traders. Moreover, it has been noted that margins have a negative effect on the trading activities for all types of traders.