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In many diagnostic accuracy studies, a priori orders may be available on multiple receiver operating characteristic curves. For example, being closer to delivery, fetal ultrasound measures in the third trimester should be no less accurate than those in the second trimester in predicting small-for-gestational-age births. Such an a priori order should be incorporated in estimating receiver operating characteristic curves and associated summary accuracy statistics, as it can potentially improve statistical efficiency of these estimates. Early work in the literature has mainly taken an indirect approach to this task and has induced the desired a priori order through modeling test score distributions. We instead propose a new strategy that incorporates the order directly through the modeling of receiver operating characteristic curves. We achieve this by exploiting the link between placement value (the relative position of a diseased test score in the healthy score distribution), the cumulative distribution function of placement value, and receiver operating characteristic curve, and by building stochastically ordered random variables through mixture distributions. We take a Bayesian semiparametric approach in using Dirichlet process mixture models so that the placement values can be flexibly modeled. We conduct extensive simulation studies to examine the performance of the proposed methodology and apply the new framework to data from obstetrics and women’s health studies.

Predicting large fetuses at birth is of great interest to obstetricians. Using an NICHD Scandinavian Study that collected longitudinal ultrasound examination data during pregnancy, we estimate diagnostic accuracy parameters of estimated fetal weight (EFW) at various times during pregnancy in predicting large-for-gestational-age. We adopt a placement value based Bayesian regression model with random effects to estimate ROC curves. The use of placement values allows us to model covariate effects directly on the ROC curves and the adoption of a Bayesian approach accommodates the a priori constraint that an ROC curve of EFW near delivery should dominate another further away. The proposed methodology is shown to perform better than some alternative approaches in simulations and its application to the Scandinavian Study data suggests that diagnostic accuracy of EFW can improve about 65% from week 17 to 37 of gestation.

Summary Count data are common in many fields such as public health. Hurdle models have been developed to model count data when the zero count could be either inflated or deflated. However, when data are repeatedly collected over time and spatially correlated, it is very challenging to model the data appropriately. For example, to study health professional shortage areas, the number of primary care physicians along with other demographic characteristics are collected at the county level in the USA and over different years. Since the data are repeatedly collected over time, counties are nested within the state, and adjacent counties are geographically correlated, the dependence structure of the data is very complex. We develop a Bayesian hurdle model with multilayered random effects to incorporate this complex structure. We use a time-varying random effect for each state to capture the time effect at the state level, and a temporal thin plate spline to capture the spatiotemporal correlation across different counties. We use STAN to obtain samples for inference from the posterior distribution. By using the model proposed, we can identify the important factors which impact health professional shortage areas. Simulation studies also confirm the effectiveness of the model.

Background. We hypothesize that preoperative functional platelet number (platelet count multiplied by platelet aggregation percentage) are associated with 30-day mortality after cardiac surgery. Methods. We linked our preoperative testing database with the STS (Society of Thoracic Surgeon) database to form a study cohort of 1390 patients who had cardiac surgeries between January 2008 and December 2013. Preoperative tests of platelet count and platelet aggregation were routinely performed on all cardiac surgical patients within 24 hours before entering the operating room. Multiple logistic regression models were used to determine whether functional platelet number are associated with 30-day mortality, modified composite major adverse cardiocerebral events, postoperative renal failure or requirement for new renal replacement therapy, and reoperation for bleeding. Log-linear models were used to examine whether functional platelet numbers are associated with hospital length of stay and intensive care unit length of stay. Results. Functional platelet number had an inverse association with 30-day mortality, and each 50 × 109/L increase in functional platelet number resulted in decreased 30-day mortality (odds ratio of 0.767 with 95% confidence interval = 0.591-0.996). For secondary outcomes, functional platelet number was neither associated with major adverse cardiocerebral event nor length of stay. However, we found that each 50 × 109/L increase in functional platelet number was associated with decreased reoperations for bleeding (odds ratio of 0.778 with 95% confidence interval = 0.636-0.951). Conclusions. The preoperative functional platelet number had significant associations with 30-day mortality after cardiac surgery. Functional platelet number could be used to guide timing of cardiac surgery, especially as more and more patients are receiving antiplatelet medications nowadays.

Recent advances in receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analyses advocate modeling of placement value (PV), a quantity that measures the position of diseased test scores relative to the healthy population. Compared to traditional approaches, this PV-based alternative works directly with ROC curves and is attractive when assessing covariate effects on, or incorporating a priori constraints of, ROC curves. Several distributions can be used to model the PV, yet little guidelines exist in the literature on which to use. Through extensive simulation studies, we investigate several parametric models for PV when data are generated from a variety of mechanisms. We discuss the pros and cons of each of these models and illustrate their applications with data from a study of prenatal ultrasound examinations and large-for-gestational age birth.

Cefdinir is frequently prescribed for pediatric infections despite lack of first-line indications. We reviewed Kentucky Medicaid claims from 2012 through 2016. Cefdinir prescriptions and spending significantly increased over the study period. Upper respiratory infections accounted for the majority of use. Inappropriate cefdinir use should be a priority for stewardship efforts.

Objective Left ventricular assist device (LVAD) surgery is complex, high risk, and expensive. The authors’ hypothesis is baseline regional cerebral oxygen saturation (rSO2) might be a predictor of postoperative clinical outcomes. Design Retrospective review of 210 consecutive continuous flow LVAD patients between 2008 and 2014. The primary measure is 30-day mortality rate and secondary measures include modified major adverse cardiocerebral events (MACE), length of stay (LOS), and intensive care unit (ICU) stay. Multiple logistic regression models were applied to examine if a binary outcome variable, such as 30-day mortality and MACE, is associated with rSO2 at baseline. Log-linear model was used to examine whether LOS or ICU stay hours is associated with rSO2 at baseline. Setting Single institution, academic hospital. Participants Patients who received LVAD surgery ​at Jewish Hospital, Louisville, KY. Interventions All patients received LVAD surgery. Cerebral oximetry monitoring was used in both the preoperative and intraoperative periods. Measurements and Main Results The authors found that higher rSO2 at baseline is associated with lower 30-day mortality with an odds ratio of 0.94 and 95% confidence interval (0.888, 0.995) for every 1% increase of rSO2. For secondary outcomes, baseline rSO2 was not significantly associated with MACE, requirement for postoperative renal failure/dialysis, reoperation for bleeding, and LOS or ICU hours. Conclusions Regional cerebral oxygen saturation levels at baseline are significantly associated with 30-day mortality after LVAD surgeries.

Background Cefdinir is frequently prescribed to pediatric outpatients with respiratory infections despite a lack of first-line indications. The use of cefdinir should be limited given its poor efficacy against Streptococcus pneumoniae, suboptimal pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic parameters, and high cost. We describe cefdinir use over time in the pediatric Kentucky (KY) Medicaid population including rates of use, associated diagnoses, and cost to the Medicaid system. Methods We reviewed KY Medicaid pharmacy and medical claims from 2012 to 2016 for all patients