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Incorporating Ecosystem Service Value (ESV) into land use planning provides a fresh perspective for informed land management decisions. ESV, influenced by socio-economic and natural factors, has complex driving mechanisms, particularly in China's southwestern karst regions. Studying mediating variables helps elucidate these mechanisms. Further research into ecosystem services interactions and effective land use policies in karst areas is needed. This study evaluates the ESV of Guizhou Province, located in southern China's karst region, using the benefit transfer approach. Combining the Guizhou Provincial Land Use Planning Outline (2006–2020) with the multi-objective programming (MOP) model optimized by genetic algorithm and the patch-generating land use simulation (PLUS) model, four future development scenarios were designed. The response of ESV to land use and land cover (LULC) changes at the county scale under four different development scenarios from 2000 to 2020 and in the future was analyzed. A partial least squares structural equation model (PLS-SEM) was used to decouple the driving mechanism affecting ESV. The results show that over the past two decades, with the implementation of various ecological restoration projects, the total ESV has increased. The ESV for natural development scenarios, ecological conservation scenarios, economic development scenarios, and sustainable development scenarios are CNY 238.278 billion, CNY 400.514 billion, CNY 283.201 billion, and CNY 323.615 billion, respectively. The direct impacts of karst surface characteristic factors (KSCF), meteorological factors (MF), socio-economic factors (SEF) and transportation location factors (TLF) on ESV are positive (0.098), negative (−0.098), positive (0.336), and positive (0.109) respectively. The total effect of KSCF on ESV through influencing socio-economic factors and LULC is (−0.738), with SEF playing a complete mediating role. MF indirectly affect ESV by influencing LULC, with LULC playing a complete mediating role in this process. The PLS-SEM model shows that under the dominant position of LULC, the interaction between natural environmental factors and socio-economic factors on ESV is very complex. This study offers valuable insights that can guide managers in this region, as well as in other karst regions globally, in the development of sustainable land use policies. • The MOP model, optimized with NSGA-II, was coupled with the PLUS model. • In future LULC simulations, both quantity and spatial patterns were optimized. • Using the PLS-SEM model, we decoupled the driving mechanisms of ESV. • KSCF are key influencing factors, with LULC playing a crucial mediating role. • Sustainability should be considered in future land use plans for karst areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Southwest China Karst, the largest continuous karst zone in the world, has suffered serious rock desertification due to the large population pressure in the area. Recent trend analyses have indicated general greening trends in this region. The region has experienced mild climate change, and yet significant land use changes, such as afforestation and reforestation. In addition, out-migration has occurred. Whether climate change or human-induced factors, i.e., ecological afforestation projects and out-migration have primarily promoted forest restoration in this region was investigated in this study, using Guizhou Province as the study area. Based on Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data, we found general greening trends of the forest from 2000 to 2010. About 89% of the forests have experienced an increase in the annual NDVI, and among which, about 41% is statistically significant. For the summer season, more than 65% of the forests have increases in summer NDVI, and about 16% of the increases are significant. The strongest greening trends mainly occurred in the karst areas. Meanwhile, annual average and summer average temperature in this region have increased and the precipitation in most of the region has decreased, although most of these changes were not statistically significant (p > 0.1). A site-based regression analysis using 19 climate stations with minimum land use changes showed that a warming climate coupled with a decrease in precipitation explained some of the changes in the forest NDVI, but the results were not conclusive. The major changes were attributed to human-induced factors, especially in the karst areas. The implications of an ecological afforestation project and out-migration for forest restoration were also discussed, and the need for further investigations at the household level to better understand the out-migration–environment relationship was identified.