1. Catch prediction off the coast of West Africa based on grey theory system.
- Author
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ZHANG Zhong, CHEN Xinjun, and YU Wei
- Subjects
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SYSTEMS theory , *FISHERY management , *SUSTAINABLE development , *PREDICTION theory , *FISH conservation , *FISHERY closures , *SPATIAL variation - Abstract
The coast of West Africa, including the Eastern Central Atlantic and Southeast Atlantic, is an important fishery production area in the world. Scientific prediction of the change trend of its catch in the future is conducive to the scientific management and development of fishery resources in this area. Based on the catch data provided by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) from 2000 to 2020, the main catch categories affecting the total catch of the Eastern Central Atlantic and Southeast Atlantic were analyzed by grey correlation analysis and grey prediction theory, and a variety of GM (1, N) models were established for comparative analysis. The optimal GM (1, N) model successfully predicted the total catch of the Eastern Central Atlantic and Southeast Atlantic from 2021 to 2025 by the catch data from 2018 to 2020 catch data for validation. The results showed that the optimal prediction model of the two sea areas is GM (1, 6) . The grey correlation coefficients between the predicted value and the original value are the greatest, which are 0.825 and 0.867, respectively. And the average relative errors are the smallest, which are 2.705% and 1.734%, respectively. The average relative errors of the prediction catches from 2018 to 2020 were 4.63% and 8.24%, respectively. The predicted total catch values for the Eastern Central Atlantic and Southeast Atlantic from 2021 to 2025 are 497.67x104-588.79x104 tons and 138.20x104-147.41x104 tons, respectively. It is believed that the maximum increase of the total catch in the Eastern Central Atlantic during the 14th Five-Year Plan is about 48x104 tons, with a relatively low growth rate. It is suggested to strengthen the conservation of resources, control the scale of fishing, formulate and implement effective management and conservation measures such as the fishing ban period, and establish a scientific and reasonable fishery cooperation mechanism. The total catch of the Southeast Atlantic fluctuates steadily. It is suggested to strengthen conservation and management of key fish species, deepen regional fishery cooperation, and appropriately expand fishing areas to achieve green development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2023
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