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2. Human contribution to the record-breaking June and July 2019 heatwaves in Western Europe

Author

Vautard, Robert, van Aalst, Maarten, Boucher, Olivier, Drouin, Agathe, Haustein, Karsten, Kreienkamp, Frank, van Oldenborgh, Geert Jan, Otto, Friederike EL, Ribes, Aurlien, Robin, Yoann, Schneider, Michel, Soubeyroux, Jean-Michel, Stott, Peter, Seneviratne, Sonia I, Vogel, Martha M, and Wehner, Michael

Subjects
Climate Action, climate change, heat wave, extreme event attribution, Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Abstract

Two extreme heatwaves hit Western Europe in the summer of 2019, with historical records broken by more than a degree in many locations, and significant societal impacts, including excess mortality of several thousand people. The extent to which human influence has played a role in the occurrence of these events has been of large interest to scientists, media and decision makers. However, the outstanding nature of these events poses challenges for physical and statistical modeling. Using an unprecedented number of climate model ensembles and statistical extreme value modeling, we demonstrate that these short and intense events would have had extremely small odds in the absence of human-induced climate change, and equivalently frequent events would have been 1.5 °C to 3 °C colder. For instance, in France and in The Netherlands, the July 3-day heatwave has a 50-150-year return period in the current climate and a return period of more than 1000 years without human forcing. The increase in the intensities is larger than the global warming by a factor 2 to 3. Finally, we note that the observed trends are much larger than those in current climate models.

Published
2020

7. What have we learnt from EUPORIAS climate service prototypes?

Author

Buontempo, Carlo, Hanlon, Helen M., Bruno Soares, Marta, Christel, Isadora, Soubeyroux, Jean-Michel, Viel, Christian, Calmanti, Sandro, Bosi, Lorenzo, Falloon, Pete, Palin, Erika J., Vanvyve, Emilie, Torralba, Verónica, Gonzalez-Reviriego, Nube, Doblas-Reyes, Francisco, Pope, Edward C.D., Newton, Paula, and Liggins, Felicity

Published
2018
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9. Human influence on growing-period frosts like in early April 2021 in central France

Author

Vautard, Robert, primary, van Oldenborgh, Geert Jan, additional, Bonnet, Rémy, additional, Li, Sihan, additional, Robin, Yoann, additional, Kew, Sarah, additional, Philip, Sjoukje, additional, Soubeyroux, Jean-Michel, additional, Dubuisson, Brigitte, additional, Viovy, Nicolas, additional, Reichstein, Markus, additional, Otto, Friederike, additional, and Garcia de Cortazar-Atauri, Iñaki, additional

Published
2023
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11. Aqui-FR: towards a hydro-geological seasonal forecasting system for metropolitan France

Author

Willemet, Jean-Marie, primary, Munier, Simon, additional, Besson, Francois, additional, Etchevers, Pierre, additional, Le Moigne, Patrick, additional, Rousset, Fabienne, additional, Soubeyroux, Jean-Michel, additional, Viel, Christian, additional, Habets, Florence, additional, Ackerer, Philippe, additional, Amraoui, Nadia, additional, de Dreuzy, Jean-Raynald, additional, Gallois, Nicolas, additional, Magand, Claire, additional, Thiery, Dominique, additional, and Vergnes, Jean-Pierre, additional

Published
2022
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16. Seasonal forecast of land indicators for decision-making in the field of agriculture, forestry and hydrology 

Author

Chanzy, André, primary, bertuzzi, Patrick, additional, Kamir, Elisa, additional, Davi, Hendrik, additional, Dupuy, Jean-Luc, additional, Martin, Nicolas, additional, Pouget, Guillaume, additional, Lagier, Marc, additional, Maury, Olivier, additional, Garcia de Cortazar, Inaki, additional, Viel, Christian, additional, and Soubeyroux, Jean-Michel, additional

Published
2022
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17. Human influence on growing-period frosts like the early April 2021 in Central France

Author

Vautard, Robert, primary, van Oldenborgh, Geert Jan, additional, Bonnet, Rémy, additional, Li, Sihan, additional, Robin, Yoann, additional, Kew, Sarah, additional, Philip, Sjoukje, additional, Soubeyroux, Jean-Michel, additional, Dubuisson, Brigitte, additional, Viovy, Nicolas, additional, Reichstein, Markus, additional, Otto, Friederike, additional, and Garcia de Cortazar-Atauri, Iñaki, additional

Published
2022
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19. Normales climatiques 1991-2020

Author

Sorel, Matthieu, primary, Soubeyroux, Jean-Michel, additional, Drouin, Agathe, additional, Jourdain, Sylvie, additional, Kerdoncuff, Maryvonne, additional, Cassaigne, Béatrice, additional, Théron, Marie-Hélène, additional, Josse, Patrick, additional, and Lacanal, Christine, additional

Published
2022
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20. Journée scientifique Toulouse-Occitanie : Quelles transitions pour l'eau face au changement climatique ?

Author

Planton, Serge, primary, Daudier, Morgane, additional, Gady, Sonia, additional, Soubeyroux, Jean-Michel, additional, Cuisset, Antoine, additional, Dimnet, Nathan, additional, Dandoy, Arthur, additional, Ducongé, Léo, additional, Grenier, Bastien, additional, Lauret, Julien, additional, Le-Baron, Gwenaël, additional, and Loyant, Léo, additional

Published
2022
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25. Les plans d'eau face aux changements climatiques

Author

Ribaudo, Cristina, Anschutz, Pierre, Arthaud, Florent, Bartout, Pascal, Bertrin, Vincent, Bourguetou, G., Cabaret, Yohana, Caill-Milly, Nathalie, Cassou, Christophe, Douez, Olivier, Dupuy, Alain, Dutartre, Alain, Fournier, Lionel, Gilles-Bon, Alix, Guibaud, Gilles, Hoffmann, Frédéric, Jamoneau, Aurélien, Labat, Frédéric, Laplace-Treyture, Christophe, Legube, Bernard, Letreut, Hervé, Morin, Soizic, Prud'Homme, François, Pryet, Alexandre, Quenault, Frank, Soubeyroux, Jean-Michel, Taabni, Mohamed, Thiébaut, Gabrielle, Tison-Rosebery, Juliette, Touchart, Laurent, Zuazo, Andoni, Géoressources et environnement, Institut Polytechnique de Bordeaux (Bordeaux INP)-Université Bordeaux Montaigne (UBM), Environnements et Paléoenvironnements OCéaniques (EPOC), Observatoire aquitain des sciences de l'univers (OASU), Université Sciences et Technologies - Bordeaux 1 (UB)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Sciences et Technologies - Bordeaux 1 (UB)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-École Pratique des Hautes Études (EPHE), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Centre Alpin de Recherche sur les Réseaux Trophiques et Ecosystèmes Limniques (CARRTEL), Université Savoie Mont Blanc (USMB [Université de Savoie] [Université de Chambéry])-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE), Centre d'Etudes pour le Développement des Territoires et l'Environnement (CEDETE), Université d'Orléans (UO), Ecosystèmes aquatiques et changements globaux (UR EABX), Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE), Agence de l'Eau Adour-Garonne, AcclimaTerra, Bureau de Recherches Géologiques et Minières (BRGM) (BRGM), Ecole Nationale Supérieure en Environnement, Géoressources et Ingénierie du Développement Durable (ENSEGID), SYNDICAT MIXTE GEOLANDES MONT DE MARSAN, Partenaires IRSTEA, Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture (IRSTEA)-Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture (IRSTEA), FPPMA NOUVELLE AQUITAINE, E2lim Limoges, Ecosystèmes, biodiversité, évolution [Rennes] (ECOBIO), Université de Rennes (UR)-Institut Ecologie et Environnement (INEE), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Observatoire des Sciences de l'Univers de Rennes (OSUR), Université de Rennes (UR)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université de Rennes 2 (UR2)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université de Rennes 2 (UR2)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité), Conservatoire Botanique National Pyrénées Midi-Pyrénées, SIAEBVELG FRA, Météo-France Direction Interrégionale Sud-Est (DIRSE), Météo-France, RURALITES (RURALITES), Université de Poitiers, Institut Polytechnique de Bordeaux (Bordeaux INP)-Université Bordeaux Montaigne, UMR 5805 Environnements et Paléoenvironnements Océaniques et Continentaux (EPOC), Université Sciences et Technologies - Bordeaux 1-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Sciences et Technologies - Bordeaux 1-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-École pratique des hautes études (EPHE), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Observatoire des Sciences de l'Univers de Rennes (OSUR)-Institut Ecologie et Environnement (INEE), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Rennes 1 (UR1), Université de Rennes (UNIV-RENNES)-Université de Rennes (UNIV-RENNES), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Paris (UP), and Météo France

Subjects
[SDV.EE]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Ecology, environment, NOUVELLE AQUITAINE, GESTION, EUTROPHISATION AQUATIQUE, CHANGEMENT CLIMATIQUE, PLAN D'EAU, [SDE.BE]Environmental Sciences/Biodiversity and Ecology
Abstract

National audience; Ces milieux aquatiques fournissent de nombreux services écosystémiques, en assurant des fonctions de support (production primaire, biodiversité), de régulation(épuration des nutriments, régulation des flux hydriques), d’approvisionnement (eau potable, irrigation, énergie) et socio-culturels (loisir, tourisme). Souvent perçusà tort comme immuables, stables et en dehors de toute pression, les plans d’eau font l’objet de multiples usages anthropiques, impactant leur fonctionnement. Lechangement climatique en cours ne fait qu’exacerber ces impacts et accélérer la dégradation des milieux ; à l’échelle régionale, ses effets restent encore à évaluer. Dans cet ouvrage, nous avons souhaité illustrer, de la manière la plus large possible, la variété des systèmes lentiques présents en Nouvelle-Aquitaine,ainsi que les lacunes de connaissance que diverses études mettent en évidence. Le but de cet ouvrage est d’apporter des éclairages scientifiques pourl’aide à la décision et aux choix politiques, et d’accompagner l’appropriation citoyenne des connaissances. Notre souhait ultime serait que ces lieuxemblématiques, source de bien-être et de services, puissent continuer à recouvrir leurs rôles fonctionnels dans le futur.

Published
2021

26. Human contribution to the recordbreaking June and July 2019 heatwaves in Western Europe

Author

Vautard, Robert, van Aalst, Maarten, Boucher, Olivier, Drouin, Agathe, Haustein, Karsten, Kreienkamp, Frank, van Oldenborgh, Jan, Otto, Friederike, Ribes, Aurélien, Robin, Yoann, Schneider, Michel, Soubeyroux, Jean-Michel, Stott, Peter, Seneviratne, Sonia, Vogel, Martha, Wehner, Michael, Vautard, Robert, Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Paris (UP), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité), and Météo-France

Subjects
[SDU] Sciences of the Universe [physics], Heat Wave, [SDU]Sciences of the Universe [physics], Climate Change, Extreme event attribution
Abstract

International audience; Two extreme heatwaves hit Western Europe in the summer of 2019, with historical records broken by more than a degree in many locations, and significant societal impacts, including excess mortality of several thousand people. The extent to which human influence has played a role in the occurrence of these events has been of large interest to scientists, media and decision makers. However, the outstanding nature of these events poses challenges for physical and statistical modeling. Using an unprecedented number of climate model ensembles and statistical extreme value modeling, we demonstrate that these short and intense events would have had extremely small odds in the absence of human-induced climate change, and equivalently frequent events would have been 1.5°C to 3°C colder. For instance, in France and in The Netherlands, the July 3-day heatwave has a 50-150-year return period in the current climate and a return period of more than 1000 years without human forcing. The increase in the intensities is larger than the global warming by a factor 2 to 3. Finally, we note that the observed trends are much larger than those in current climate models.

Published
2021

27. Observed snow depth trends in the European Alps: 1971 to 2019

Author

Matiu, Michael, primary, Crespi, Alice, additional, Bertoldi, Giacomo, additional, Carmagnola, Carlo Maria, additional, Marty, Christoph, additional, Morin, Samuel, additional, Schöner, Wolfgang, additional, Cat Berro, Daniele, additional, Chiogna, Gabriele, additional, De Gregorio, Ludovica, additional, Kotlarski, Sven, additional, Majone, Bruno, additional, Resch, Gernot, additional, Terzago, Silvia, additional, Valt, Mauro, additional, Beozzo, Walter, additional, Cianfarra, Paola, additional, Gouttevin, Isabelle, additional, Marcolini, Giorgia, additional, Notarnicola, Claudia, additional, Petitta, Marcello, additional, Scherrer, Simon C., additional, Strasser, Ulrich, additional, Winkler, Michael, additional, Zebisch, Marc, additional, Cicogna, Andrea, additional, Cremonini, Roberto, additional, Debernardi, Andrea, additional, Faletto, Mattia, additional, Gaddo, Mauro, additional, Giovannini, Lorenzo, additional, Mercalli, Luca, additional, Soubeyroux, Jean-Michel, additional, Sušnik, Andrea, additional, Trenti, Alberto, additional, Urbani, Stefano, additional, and Weilguni, Viktor, additional

Published
2021
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30. Selecting climate projections for services: the DRIAS-2020 dataset

Author

Corre, Lola, primary, Somot, Samuel, additional, Soubeyroux, Jean-Michel, additional, Bernus, Sébastien, additional, Drouin, Agathe, additional, Dubuisson, Brigitte, additional, Etchevers, Pierre, additional, Gouget, Viviane, additional, Josse, Patrick, additional, Kerdoncuff, Maryvonne, additional, Samacoits, Raphaëlle, additional, Tocquer, Flore, additional, Pagé, Christian, additional, Ribes, Aurélien, additional, and Vautard, Robert, additional

Published
2021
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32. Human influence on growing-period frosts like the early April 2021 in Central France.

Author

Vautard, Robert, van Oldenborgh, Geert Jan, Bonnet, Rémy, Li, Sihan, Robin, Yoann, Kew, Sarah, Philip, Sjoukje, Soubeyroux, Jean-Michel, Dubuisson, Brigitte, Viovy, Nicolas, Reichstein, Markus, Otto, Friederike, and de Cortazar-Atauri, Iñaki Garcia

Subjects
COLD (Temperature), ATMOSPHERIC models, CLIMATE change, GLOBAL warming, GROWING season
Abstract

In early April 2021 several days of harsh frost affected central Europe. This led to very severe damages in grapevine and fruit trees in France, in regions where young leaves had already unfolded due to unusually warm temperatures in the preceding month (march 2021. We analysed with observations and 172 climate model simulations how human-induced climate change affected this event over central France, where many vineyards are located. We found that, without human-caused climate change, such temperatures in April or later in spring would have been even lower by 1.2°C [0.75°C;1.7°C]. However, climate change also caused an earlier occurrence of bud burst, that we characterized in this study by a growing-degree-day index value. This shift leaves young leaves exposed to more winter-like conditions with lower minimum temperatures and longer nights, an effect that over-compensates the warming effect. Extreme cold temperatures occurring after the start of the growing season such as those of April 2021 are now 2°C colder [0.5°C to 3.3°C] than in pre-industrial conditions, according to observations. This observed intensification of growing-period frosts is attributable, at least in part, to human-caused climate change with each of 5 climate model ensembles used here simulating a cooling of growing-period annual temperature minima of 0.41°C [0.22°C to 0.60°C] since pre-industrial conditions. The 2021 growing- period frost event has become 50% more likely [10%-110%]. Models accurately simulate the observed warming in extreme lowest spring temperatures, but underestimate the observed trends in growing-period frost intensities, a fact that remains yet to be explained. Model ensembles all simulate a further intensification of yearly minimum temperatures occurring in the growing period for future decades, and a significant probability increase for such events of about 30% [20%-40%] in a climate with global warming of 2°C. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2022
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35. Observed snow depth trends in the European Alps 1971 to 2019

Author

Matiu, Michael, primary, Crespi, Alice, additional, Bertoldi, Giacomo, additional, Carmagnola, Carlo Maria, additional, Marty, Christoph, additional, Morin, Samuel, additional, Schöner, Wolfgang, additional, Cat Berro, Daniele, additional, Chiogna, Gabriele, additional, De Gregorio, Ludovica, additional, Kotlarski, Sven, additional, Majone, Bruno, additional, Resch, Gernot, additional, Terzago, Silvia, additional, Valt, Mauro, additional, Beozzo, Walter, additional, Cianfarra, Paola, additional, Gouttevin, Isabelle, additional, Marcolini, Giorgia, additional, Notarnicola, Claudia, additional, Petitta, Marcello, additional, Scherrer, Simon C., additional, Strasser, Ulrich, additional, Winkler, Michael, additional, Zebisch, Marc, additional, Cicogna, Andrea, additional, Cremonini, Roberto, additional, Debernardi, Andrea, additional, Faletto, Mattia, additional, Gaddo, Mauro, additional, Giovannini, Lorenzo, additional, Mercalli, Luca, additional, Soubeyroux, Jean-Michel, additional, Sušnik, Andrea, additional, Trenti, Alberto, additional, Urbani, Stefano, additional, and Weilguni, Viktor, additional

Published
2020
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39. Observed trends and changes in Extreme Climate Indices over the Pyrenees (1959-2015)

Author

Llabrés, A., Prohom, Marc, Cunillera, Jordi, Cuadrat, José María, Serrano Notivoli, Roberto, Saz Sánchez, Miguel Ángel, Trapero, Laura, Pons, Marc, Soubeyroux, Jean-Michel, and Rodríguez Camino, Ernesto

Subjects
Temperature, Precipitation, Snow cover, Extreme climate indices
Abstract

Póster presentado en: EMS Annual Meeting: European Conference for Applied Meteorology and Climatology celebrado del 9 al 13 de septiembre de 2017 en Copenhague, Dinamarca. CLIMPY (Characterisation of the evolution of climate and provision of information for adaptation in the Pyrenees) is a transboundary project that aims to perform a detailed analysis of recent trends in temperature, precipitation and snow cover in the Pyrenees, and their future projection. As a result, changes in the frequency, intensity, spatial extent, duration and timing of weather and climate extremes due to climate change are among the more relevant objectives. This project (EFA081/15) is under the umbrella of the Pyrenees Climate Change Observatory (OPCC-CTP), and it has a 65% funding by the European Regional Development Fund (FEDER) through the Interreg Programme V-A Spain-France-Andorra (POCTEFA 2014-2020).

Published
2019

40. Pan-European Mountain Tourism Meteorological and Snow Indicators

Author

Morin, Samuel, Samacoïts, Raphaëlle, Hugues, François, Abegg, Bruno, Demiroglu, O. Cenk, Pons, Marc, Lafaysse, Matthieu, Weber, Fabian, Amacher Hoppler, Anna, George, Emmanuelle, Soubeyroux, Jean-Michel, Clifford, Debbie, Cauchy, Adeline, Dubois, Ghislain, Morin, Samuel, Samacoïts, Raphaëlle, Hugues, François, Abegg, Bruno, Demiroglu, O. Cenk, Pons, Marc, Lafaysse, Matthieu, Weber, Fabian, Amacher Hoppler, Anna, George, Emmanuelle, Soubeyroux, Jean-Michel, Clifford, Debbie, Cauchy, Adeline, and Dubois, Ghislain

Abstract

Ski tourism plays a major role in European mountain areas such as the Alps, Pyrenees, Scandinavia, Turkey, Eastern European Mountains etc. Meteorological conditions govern the operating conditions of ski resorts, due to their reliance on natural snow fall and favorable conditions for snowmaking. However, there is currently a major lack of assessment of past and future operating conditions of ski resorts at the pan-European scale in the context of climate change. The presented work aims at filling this gap, as part of the ongoing development of “European Tourism” Sectoral Information System (SIS) of the Copernicus Climate Change Services (C3S). C3S is run by the European Center for Medium-range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) on behalf of the European Commission. The Mountain Tourism Meteorological and Snow Indi-cators (MTMSI) are derived using statistical adjustment of EURO-CORDEX climate projections (multiple GCM/RCM pairs for several RCP) using the UERRA 5.5 km resolution surface reanalysis as a reference, followed by snowpack models runs using the Crocus multi-layer model, with and without snow manage-ment options (grooming, snowmaking). Results are generated by 100 m elevation bands for NUTS-3 geographical areas spanning all mountainous areas in Europe. The resulting data can be aggregated in time and space in various ways, depending on the use case. The presentation quickly introduces the un-derpinning elements for the generation of this product, and illustrates results at the pan-European scale as well as for smaller scale case studies, for past and future climate conditions. The data will be made available freely through the Copernicus Data Store starting in 2019. It is expected that the data and the tools developed within this project will not only make it possible to analyze the climate sensitivity of ski tourism in Europe as a topical yet academic research question, but would also help third-parties in devel-oping climate services specifically targeting the sk

Published
2019

41. Human influence on European winter wind storms such as those of January 2018

Author

Vautard, Robert, primary, van Oldenborgh, Geert Jan, additional, Otto, Friederike E. L., additional, Yiou, Pascal, additional, de Vries, Hylke, additional, van Meijgaard, Erik, additional, Stepek, Andrew, additional, Soubeyroux, Jean-Michel, additional, Philip, Sjoukje, additional, Kew, Sarah F., additional, Costella, Cecilia, additional, Singh, Roop, additional, and Tebaldi, Claudia, additional

Published
2019
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43. The Mountain Component of the Copernicus Climate Change Services - Sectoral Information Service 'European Tourism' : Towards Pan-European Analysis and Projections of Natural and Managed Snow Conditions

Author

Morin, Samuel, Abegg, Bruno, Demiroglu, O. Cenk, Pons, Marc, Weber, Fabian, Amacher-Hoppler, Anna, François, Hugues, George, Emmanuelle, Soubeyroux, Jean-Michel, Samacoïts, Raphaëlle, Lafaysse, Matthieu, Franklin, Sam, Clifford, Debbie, Cauchy, Adeline, Dubois, Ghislain, Morin, Samuel, Abegg, Bruno, Demiroglu, O. Cenk, Pons, Marc, Weber, Fabian, Amacher-Hoppler, Anna, François, Hugues, George, Emmanuelle, Soubeyroux, Jean-Michel, Samacoïts, Raphaëlle, Lafaysse, Matthieu, Franklin, Sam, Clifford, Debbie, Cauchy, Adeline, and Dubois, Ghislain

Abstract

Ski tourism plays a major role in European mountain areas such as the Alps, Pyrenees, Scandinavia, Turkey, Eastern European Mountains etc. Meteorological conditions govern the operating conditions of ski resorts, due to their reliance on natural snow fall and favorable conditions for snowmaking. However, there is currently a major lack of assessment of past and future operating conditions of ski resorts at the pan-European scale in the context of climate change. The presented work aims at filling this gap, as part of the ongoing development of « European Tourism » Sectoral Information Service (SIS) of the Copernicus Climate Change Services (C3S). C3S is run by the European Center for Medium-range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) on behalf of the European Commission. Such an endeavor requires combining state-of-the-art meteorological reanalysis with regional climate projections, followed by the application of a snowpack model accounting for grooming and snowmaking. Emphasis will be placed on the workflow making it possible to analyze the data with various levels of aggregation (from daily data to annual scale indicators, to their statistical moments accounting for multiple climate scenarios and lead times), in order to address the needs of various stakeholders, at the European, national, regional and local scales. The data will be made available freely through the Copernicus Data Store in various ways (download of raw data, download or graphics based on post-processed information accounting for user specific needs). It is expected that the data and the tools developed within this project will not only make it possible to analyze the climate sensitivity of ski tourism in Europe as a topical yet academic research question, but would also help third-parties in developing climate services specifically targeting the ski tourism industry in Europe. This contribution introduces the scientific background and general strategy for generating the products, and delivers preliminary info

Published
2018

44. What have we learnt from EUPORIAS climate service prototypes?

Author

Barcelona Supercomputing Center, Buontempo, Carlo, Manlon, Helen M., Bruno Soares, Marta, Christel, Isadora, Soubeyroux, Jean-Michel, Viel, Christian, Calmanti, Sandro, Bosi, Lorenzo, Falloon, Pete, Palin, Eika J., Vanvyve, Emilie, Torralba, Verónica, Gonzalez-Reviriego, Nube, Doblas-Reyes, Francisco, Pope, Edward C.D., Newton, Paula, Liggins, Felicity, Barcelona Supercomputing Center, Buontempo, Carlo, Manlon, Helen M., Bruno Soares, Marta, Christel, Isadora, Soubeyroux, Jean-Michel, Viel, Christian, Calmanti, Sandro, Bosi, Lorenzo, Falloon, Pete, Palin, Eika J., Vanvyve, Emilie, Torralba, Verónica, Gonzalez-Reviriego, Nube, Doblas-Reyes, Francisco, Pope, Edward C.D., Newton, Paula, and Liggins, Felicity

Abstract

The international effort toward climate services, epitomised by the development of the Global Framework for Climate Services and, more recently the launch of Copernicus Climate Change Service has renewed interest in the users and the role they can play in shaping the services they will eventually use. Here we critically analyse the results of the five climate service prototypes that were developed as part of the EU funded project EUPORIAS. Starting from the experience acquired in each of the projects we attempt to distil a few key lessons which, we believe, will be relevant to the wider community of climate service developers., The authors wish to acknowledge all of those who contributed indirectly to the development of the EUPORIAS prototypes, through scientific discussion, review, data provision, stakeholder engagement and facilitation: for SPRINT, Adam Scaife, Anca Brookshaw, Alberto Arribas, Emily Wallace, Jeff Knight, Margaret Gordon, Kate Brown, Brent Walker, Mathew Richardson, Jodie Wild, and the DfT-led stakeholder group; for RESILIENCE, Melanie Davis for conceiving the prototype and for her vision on Climate Services. In the LMTool, Clinton Devon Estates, the National Farmers Union, and all the farmers involved in the development of the tool. The UK Government Department for Transport is acknowledged for providing financial support, in parallel to that received from EUPORIAS, for the SPRINT prototype. The visualisation, project UKKO, within RESILIENCE prototype was done by Moritz Stefaner. EUPORIAS was funded by the European Commission through the 7th Framework Programme for Research, grant agreement 308291., Peer Reviewed, Postprint (published version)

Published
2018

45. Towards a new quality-controlled daily climate dataset for the Pyrenees, 1950-2015

Author

Serrano Notivoli, Roberto, Cuadrat, José María, Copons, Ramón, Cunillera, Jordi, Gascoin, Simon, López Moreno, Juan Ignacio, Luna Rico, Yolanda, Pons, Marc, Prohom, Marc, Rodríguez Camino, Ernesto, Saz Sánchez, Miguel Ángel, Soubeyroux, Jean-Michel, Tejedor, Ernesto, Trapero, Laura, and Verfaille, D.

Subjects
CLIM’PY project, Temperature, Quality control, Precipitation, Climate dataset
Abstract

Póster presentado en: EMS Annual Meeting: European Conference for Applied Meteorology and Climatology celebrado del 4 al 8 de septiembre de 2017 en Dublin, Irlanda Previous works using lower-density datasets addressed warming rates with slight differences depending on the season and diffuse trends for precipitation. New and more accurate results in spatio-temporal variations of these climate variables are expected on behalf the development of the CLIM’PY project, which aims to: i) detect past trends with instrumental data and, ii) estimate future behaviours in climatic variables based on projected scenarios. Temperature, precipitation and snow cover in the Pyrenees will be analysed within the framework of the project. In this communication, we present the methodology we will follow to conduct the quality control analysis of daily temperature and precipitation, which will include 673 stations of Spain, France and Andorra, covering the period 1950-2015.

Published
2017

46. Evaluation of convection-permitting extreme precipitation simulations for the south of France.

Author

Luu, Linh N., Vautard, Robert, Yiou, Pascal, and Soubeyroux, Jean-Michel

Subjects
METEOROLOGICAL research, WEATHER forecasting, MEDITERRANEAN climate, CLIMATE change, CLIMATOLOGY
Abstract

In the autumn, the French Mediterranean area is frequently exposed to heavy precipitation events whose daily accumulation can exceed 300 mm. One of the key processes contributing to these precipitation amounts is the deep convection, which can be resolved explicitly by state-or-the-art convection-permitting model to reproduce heavy rainfall events that are comparable to observations. However, this approach has never been used in climate simulation for the Mediterranean coastal region. In this research, we investigate the added values of using three ensembles of climate simulations at convection-permitting resolution (approx. 3 km) in replicating extreme precipitation events in both daily and shorter time scale over the South of France. These three convection-permitting simulations are performed with the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF). They are forced by three EURO-CORDEX simulations, which are also downscaled with WRF at the resolution of 0.11° (approx. 12 km). We found that a convection-permitting approach provides a more realistic representation of extreme daily and 3-hourly rainfall simulations in comparison with EURO-CORDEX simulations. Their similarity with observations allows a use for climate change studies and its impacts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2020
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47. Human influence on European winter wind storms such as those of January 2018

Author

Vautard, Robert, primary, van Oldenborgh, Geert Jan, additional, Otto, Friederike E. L., additional, Yiou, Pascal, additional, de Vries, Hylke, additional, van Meijgaard, Erik, additional, Stepek, Andrew, additional, Soubeyroux, Jean-Michel, additional, Philip, Sjoukje, additional, Kew, Sarah F., additional, Costella, Cecilia, additional, Singh, Roop, additional, and Tebaldi, Claudia, additional

Published
2018
Full Text
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