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Purpose: To examine the propagation of consumer and business confidence in the euro area (EA) with a particular focus on the global financial crisis (GFC), the European sovereign debt crisis (ESDC), and the COVID-19-induced Great Lockdown. Design/methodology/approach: The authors apply Diebold and Yilmaz’s connectedness framework and the improved method based on the Time-Varying Parameter Vector Autoregressive model. Findings: The authors find that although the evolution of business confidence marked the GFC and the ESDC the role of consumer confidence (mainly in those countries with stricter containment and closure measures) increased in the COVID-19-induced crisis. Originality/value: The findings are related to the different origins of the examined crisis periods, and the analysis of their interrelationship is a very relevant topic for future research., Depto. de Análisis Económico y Economía Cuantitativa, Fac. de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, TRUE, pub, Pagado por el autor

We empirically identify, measure, and describe the heterogeneity of the debt-growth nexus and the underlying factors that may explain it using panel data for 115 countries from 1995 to 2016. First, countries are endogenously grouped using the grouped fixed effects (GFE) estimator. The GFE estimator endogenously splits the sample into five groups of countries with a distinct estimated effect of public debt-to-GDP ratio on economic growth and allows us to investigate group-specific time-varying impacts. Then, we use a panel data analysis to explore the potential drivers affecting these heterogeneous links’ time-varying magnitude. Our results suggest that the negative impact of public debt on economic growth is moderated by the quality of a country’s institutions and the proportion of productive expenditure but intensified by indebtedness and the maturity of the debt., Depto. de Análisis Económico y Economía Cuantitativa, Fac. de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, TRUE, inpress, Pagado por el autor

Se pretende profundizar en el estudio de la brecha de género en el desempeño en exámenes de opción múltiple ampliando la muestra de cursos e incorporando especialistas en Economía de la Educación, Decisión Individual y Economía Experimental.

In this paper, we examine the dynamic behaviour of the US stock market due to the subsequent impact of the COVID-19 outbreak and the war in Ukraine. To that end, we analyse daily data of Dow Jones Industrial Average returns from 2 January 1900 to 31 October 2022. Firstly, we identify past crisis episodes similar to the current situation. Then, we compare the volatility dynamics, variation-fluctuation correlation functions, and correlation with uncertainty indicators with those induced by the COVID-19 epidemic and the subsequent Russo-Ukrainian conflict. Our findings suggest that the consecutive occurrence of these unexpected events has had more severe adverse effects on the US stock market than those recorded in similar past episodes. Additionally, we found that the events are highly correlated with indicators of economic policy uncertainty and financial market fear., Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación (España), Generalitat de Catalunya, Depto. de Análisis Económico y Economía Cuantitativa, Fac. de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, TRUE, pub, APC financiada por la UCM

Using a statistical methodology guided only by data and based on a genetic algorithm, we select the best econometric model for explaining the determinants of the size of the shadow economy, its main determinants being: taxes on capital gains of individuals, corporate taxes on income, profits and capital gains, domestic credit, bank secrecy, ethnic fractionalization, urban population, globalization, corruption and the socialist legal origin of country., Depto. de Análisis Económico y Economía Cuantitativa, Fac. de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, TRUE, pub

New evidence is presented on the impact on the US dollar–euro (USD–EUR) exchange rate of the unconventional monetary policy conducted by the US Federal Reserve (FED) and the European Central Bank (ECB). To that end, we employ an event study approach using daily the USD–EUR exchange rate for the period from 2 January 2007 to 31 January 2015. Our results indicate that the announcement and subsequent implementation of such measures by the ECB would have caused in general an appreciation of the dollar, while those by the FED would have caused a depreciation of the dollar., Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación (MICINN), Depto. de Análisis Económico y Economía Cuantitativa, Fac. de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, TRUE, pub

Examinamos la capacidad predictiva, las propiedades de consistencia de las expectativas de inflación y sus posibles determinantes usando una encuesta a un panel de expertos y empresarios realizada en España por PwC. Al analizar la tasa de inflación general, nuestros resultados sugieren que el panel de PwC presenta alguna capacidad predictiva para los horizontes temporales desde 3 a 9 meses, mejorando cuando se trata de predecir la tasa de inflación subyacente. Sin embargo, los resultados indican que las predicciones realizadas por los participantes de la encuesta no son predictores insesgados ni eficientes de las tasas de inflación futuras, con independencia de las medidas de inflación empleadas. En cuanto a las propiedades de la consistencia del proceso de formación de las expectativas de la tasa de inflación general, obtenemos que los panelistas forman sus expectativas de forma estabilizadoras, tanto en el corto como en el largo plazo. Al centrarse en la tasa de inflación subyacente, la consistencia queda indeterminada. Por último, obtenemos que las expectativas de inflación son muy persistentes y que parecen incorporar la información contenida en algunas variables macroeconómicas (las tasas actuales de inflación subyacente y de crecimiento real, el tipo de cambio USD/EUR, el objetivo de inflación del BCE y los cambios en el tipo de interés a corto plazo del BCE)., We examine the predictive ability, the consistency properties, and the possible driving forces of inflation expectations, using a survey conducted in Spain by PwC, among a panel of experts and entrepreneurs. When analysing the headline inflation rate, our results suggest that the PwC panel has some forecasting ability for time horizons from 3 to 9 months, improving when it comes to predicting the core inflation rate. Nevertheless, the results indicate that predictions made by survey participants are neither unbiased nor efficient predictors of future inflation rates, regardless of the measures of inflation used. As for the consistency properties of the inflation expectations formation process, we find that panel members form stabilising expectations in the case of the headline inflation rate, both in the short and in the long-run, although in the case of the core inflation rate, consistency remains indeterminate. Finally, we find that inflation expectations are very persistent and that they appear to incorporate the information content of some macroeconomic variables (current core inflation and growth rate, the USD/EUR exchange rate, the European Central Bank (ECB) infla- tion target, and changes in the ECB official short-term interest rate)., Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation, Depto. de Análisis Económico y Economía Cuantitativa, Fac. de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, TRUE, pub

We empirically investigate the determinants of EMU sovereign bond yield spreads with respect to the German bund. Using panel data techniques, we examine the role of a wide set of potential drivers. To our knowledge, this paper presents one of the most exhaustive compilations of the variables used in the literature to study the behaviour of sovereign yield spreads and, in particular, to gauge the effect on these spreads of changes in market sentiment and risk aversion. We use a sample of both central and peripheral countries from January 1999 to December 2012 and assess whether there were significant changes after the outbreak of the euro area debt crisis. Our results suggest that the rise in sovereign risk in central countries can only be partially explained by the evolution of local macroeconomic variables in those countries. Besides, without exception, the marginal effects of sovereign spread drivers (specifically, the variables that measure global market sentiment) increased during the crisis compared to the pre-crisis period, especially in peripheral countries., Government of Spain, Spanish Ministry ofScience and Innovation, Depto. de Análisis Económico y Economía Cuantitativa, Fac. de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, TRUE, pub

Based on a dataset of 123 economies, this paper empirically investigates the relation between exchange-rate regimes and economic growth. We find that growth performance is best under intermediate exchange rate regimes, while the smallest growth rates are associated with flexible exchange rates. Nevertheless, this conclusion is tempered when we analyze the countries by income level: even though countries that adopt intermediate exchange-rate regimes are characterized by higher economic growth, the higher the level of income, less difference in growth performance across exchange rate regimes., Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness, Depto. de Análisis Económico y Economía Cuantitativa, Fac. de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, TRUE, pub

This paper examines real exchange rate (RER) volatility in eighty countries around the world, during the period 1970 to 2011. Two main questions are raised: are structural breaks in RER volatility related to changes in exchange-rate regimes or financial crises? And do these two events affect the permanent and transitory components of RER volatility? To answer them, we employ two complementary procedures that consist in detecting structural breaks in the RER series and decomposing volatility into its permanent and transitory components. Our results suggest that structural breaks in RER volatility coincidence with financial crises and certain changes in nominal exchange-rate regimes. Moreover, our findings confirm that RER volatility does increase with the global financial crises and detect that the more flexible the exchange rate regime, the higher the volatility of the RER using a de facto exchange rate classification., Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness, Depto. de Análisis Económico y Economía Cuantitativa, Fac. de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, TRUE, pub

El proyecto pretende analizar si existe una brecha de género en el desempeño en exámenes de opción múltiple, ampliamente utilizados como sistemas de evaluación de las asignaturas de los distintos grados ofrecidos por la universidad.