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We present an energy transition pathway constrained by a total CO2 budget of 7 Gt allocated to the German energy system after 2020, the Budget Scenario (BS). We apply a normative backcasting approach for scenario building based on historical data and assumptions from existing scenario studies. The modeling approach combines a comprehensive energy system model (ESM) with REMix—a cost optimization model for power and heat that explicitly incorporates sector coupling. To achieve the necessary CO2 reduction, the scenario focuses on electrifying all end use sectors until 2030, adding 1.5–2 million electric vehicles to the road per year. In buildings, 400,000–500,000 heat pumps would be installed annually by 2030, and the share of district heating would double until 2050. In the scenario, coal needs to be phased out by 2030. Wind and Photovoltaic (PV) capacities would need to more than double to 290 GW by 2030 and reach 500 GW by 2050. The BS results indicate that a significant acceleration of the energy transition is necessary before 2030 and that this higher pace must be maintained thereafter until 2050.

This section focuses on technologies that provide heat, and especially process heat, with renewable energy and electrical systems. All the technologies described, except those that use high-temperature geothermal or concentrated solar heat (CSH) for process heat, are used for the OECM 1.5 °C pathways described in Chaps. 5, 6, 7, and 8. The authors have included geothermal and solar technologies to highlight the further technical options available and to underscore that more research is required in the area of renewable process heat.

Background Different strategies have been proposed for transforming the energy system in Germany. To evaluate their sustainability, it is necessary to analyze their macroeconomic and distributional effects. An approach to do this analysis in an integrated consistent framework is presented here. Methods Comparing ten energy transition scenarios with emission reduction targets by 2050 of 80% or 95%, respectively, allows evaluating a broad range of energy system transformation strategies with respect to the future technology and energy carrier mix. For this purpose, an energy system model and a macroeconometric model are combined, thus re-modeling the unified scenarios. An important extension of the model was concerned with the integration of synthetic fuels into the energy-economy model. One focus besides the overall macroeconomic assessment is the regional analysis. For this purpose, own assumptions on the regional distribution of the expansion of renewable energies were developed. Results The effects on gross domestic product (GDP) and employment are similar on average from 2030 to 2050 across the scenarios, with most of the more ambitious scenarios showing slightly higher values for the socioeconomic variables. Employment in the construction sector shows the largest effects in most scenarios, while in the energy sector employment is lower in scenarios with high energy imports. At the regional level, the differences between scenarios are larger than at the national level. There is no clear or stable regional pattern of relative loss and profit from the very ambitious transformation, as not only renewable energy expansion varies, and hydrogen strategies enter the scene approaching 2050. Conclusions From the relatively small differences between the scenarios, it can be concluded that, from a macroeconomic perspective, it is not decisive for the overall economy which (supply side) strategy is chosen for the transformation of the energy system. More effort needs to be put into improving assumptions and modeling approaches related to strategies for achieving the final 20% CO2 reduction, for example the increasing use of hydrogen.

Purpose To address the unmet need of continuous IOP monitoring, a Pressure-Measuring Contact Lens (PMCL) was developed to measure IOP in millimeters of mercury (mmHg) continuously over 24 hours. The present study assessed the reliability of the novel PMCL. Methods In this prospective open-label clinical study, healthy and open-angle glaucoma (OAG) subjects were fitted with the PMCL, and pneumatonometry was performed on study eyes (in absence of the PMCL) and on fellow eyes before, during, and after provocative tests. The primary outcome measures were (1) mean IOP difference between same-eye measurements, and (2) percentage of timepoints at which IOP measured by the PMCL was within 5 mmHg of that measured by pneumatonometry in the fellow eye. Results Eight subjects were analysed (4 healthy, 4 OAG). The average difference in successive IOP measurements made by pneumatonometry and with the PMCL was 2.0±4.3mmHg at placement-time, and 6.5±15.2mmHg at removal time. During water drinking test, a significant increase in IOP was detected both by PMCL in the study eye (2.4±2.5mmHg, p = 0.03) and by pneumatonometry in the fellow eye (1.9±1.9mmHg, p = 0.02). Over the 24-hour recording, 88.0% of IOP variations measured by the PMCL were within 5mmHg of that measured with the pneumatonometer in the fellow eye. A transient corneal erosion of severe intensity was observed following removal of the PMCL on one single eye, and may have affected measurement accuracy in that eye. Conclusions This study is a proof-of-concept for this novel PMCL, and its results are encouraging, with a fair accuracy in IOP values measurement and good sensitivity to subtle IOP variations.

PURPOSE To evaluate the use of a 24-hr ocular dimensional profile recorded with a contact lens sensor (CLS) combined with a single tonometric intraocular pressure (IOP) reading to indicate the potential for exceeding the diagnostic threshold for normal tension glaucoma (NTG) in Japanese patients. METHODS Intraocular pressure (IOP) of untreated Japanese NTG patients was measured with tonometry every 3 hr from 9:00 to 24:00. The subsequent day a 24-hr CLS (SENSIMED Triggerfish, Sensimed AG, Lausanne, Switzerland) profile was recorded on the same eye. Patients initially diagnosed as NTG were reclassified as NTG when the measured IOP values were consistently

Background/AimsThis study assessed the feasibility of a novel contact lens device for intraocular pressure (IOP) and ocular pulse amplitude (OPA) continuous measurements over 24 hours.MethodsThis prospective, open-label, single-centre, non-randomised study included glaucoma and healthy subjects. IOP and OPA values acquired by the pressure-measuring contact lens (PMCL) device in one patient’s eye at the beginning of the measurement were compared with tonometry values (Goldman applanation tonometry (GAT) and dynamic contour tonometry (DCT)) in the same eye just before PMCL placement. Furthermore, IOP and OPA values measured with PMCL on the study eye during a water drinking test (WDT) were compared with DCT values in the fellow eye. Comparisons were performed using t-tests with 95% Confidence Intervals.ResultsTwenty-four-hour IOP and OPA curves were obtained for eight subjects. The mean IOP difference between PMCL and tonometry on the same eye was within ±5 mm Hg in 75% (GAT) and 87.5% (DCT) of subjects. IOP variations due to WDT were detected by PMCL and DCT, showing an average increase of 2.43 and 1.85 mm Hg, respectively. Differences between PMCL and DCT for IOP variations in fellow eyes were within ±5 mm Hg for 97.2% of time points. The difference between OPA in fellow eyes was within ±5 mm Hg for 85.5% of the time points.ConclusionsThis first-in-human study is a proof-of-concept for 24-hour continuous measurements of IOP and OPA with the PMCL. This device is non-invasive and has good comparability with standard tonometry.

Purpose To test the hypothesis that a 24-hour recording of intraocular pressure (IOP)-related measurements derived from a contact lens sensor (CLS) correlates to the rate of visual field progression in treated glaucomatous eyes. Design Prospective, cross-sectional study. Participants Forty treated glaucomatous patients with 8 or more 24-2 visual field tests. Methods Twenty-four–hour recording with a CLS that provides IOP-related measurements. Main Outcome Measures Rates of visual field mean deviation (MD) change before and at the time of CLS recording and CLS parameters, namely number of large peaks, mean peak ratio, wake-to-sleep slope, amplitude and area under the cosine curve, and variability from the mean. Results When comparing the rate of MD change before and at the time of CLS recording of all patients, the average slope was −0.05 dB/year faster in the beginning compared with the end ( P = 0.087), suggesting a deceleration of progression by the time of CLS recording. The number of long peaks and the mean peak ratio when patients were awake were the best predictors of faster progression. The combination of CLS parameters provided better measures of goodness of fit than Goldmann IOP parameters (mean, peak, and fluctuation) in the same period. Conclusions Intraocular pressure-related parameters obtained with 24-hour recording with a CLS were associated with the rate of visual field progression in treated glaucomatous eyes. This technology may be useful in detecting eyes at higher risk of glaucoma progression while receiving treatment.

© The Author(s) 2019. The aim of this chapter is to make the scenario calculations fully transparent and comprehensible to the scientific community. It provides the scenario narratives for the reference case (5.0 °C) as well as for the 2.0 °C and 1.5 °C on a global and regional basis. Cost projections for all fossil fuels and renewable energy technologies until 2050 are provided. Explanations are given for all relevant base year data for the modelling and the main input parameters such as GDP, population, renewable energy potentials and technology parameters.

© The Author(s) 2019. Results for the 5.0 C, 2.0 C and 1.5 C scenarios for ten world regions in regard to energy-related carbon-dioxide emissions, final-, primary-, transport- and heating demand and the deployment of various supply technologies to meet the demand. Furthermore, the electricity demand and generation scenarios are provided. The key results of a power sector analysis which simulates further electricity supply with high shares of solar- and wind power in one hour steps is provided. The ten world regions are divided into eight sub-regions and the expected development of loads, capacity-factors for various power plant types and storage demands are provided. This chapter contains more than 100 figures and tables.

As many other small islands and archipelagos, the Canary Islands depend to a high degree on energy imports. Despite its small surface, the archipelago has a high potential for renewable energy (RE) technologies. In this paper, we present a scenario pathway to a 100% RE supply in the Canary Islands by 2050. It relies on a back-casting approach linking the bottom-up accounting framework Mesap-PlaNet and the high resolution power system model REMix. Our analysis shows that locally available technology potentials are sufficient for a fully renewable supply of the islands’ power, heat, and land transport energy demands. To follow the pathway for achieving a carbon neutral supply, expansion of RE technology deployment needs to be accelerated in the short-term and efforts towards greater energy efficiency must be increased. According to our results, an extended linkage between energy sectors through electric vehicles as well as electric heating, and the usage of synthetic hydrogen can contribute notably to the integration of intermittent RE power generation. Furthermore, our results highlight the importance of power transmission in RE supply systems. Supply costs are found 15% lower in a scenario considering sea cable connections between all islands.

We present the first comprehensive estimate of the final energy demand for heat in all EU28 member states for the reference year 2012, differentiated by temperature levels, comparing two different approaches. Two different calculation approaches based on different data sets yielded estimates of the total final energy demand for heat in the EU28 of 8150 PJ and 8518 PJ in 2012, respectively. Approach 1 distinguishes between three different process heat (PH) temperature levels and results in final energy demand for heat 400°C: 3859 PJ. The second approach distinguishes between low temperature space heat and hot water (

© 2018 Elsevier B.V. To meet the terms of the 2015 Paris Agreement, the global energy system must be entirely decarbonized by the end of this century. Two scenarios have been developed: a reference case (REF) and an advanced 100% renewable energy scenario (ADV). ADV reflects the trends in global energy systems and will decarbonize the entire energy system by 2050. Those results are compared with the IPCC AR5 450 ppm scenarios, in terms of the 2050 energy demand projections — primary and final energy — and the demands for the transport and building sectors because they are important in urban environments. The results are further discussed with regard to the impact on urban infrastructures and the role of megacities in the global energy consumption pattern. Under the assumption that urbanization rates will remain at the 2015 level until 2050, the annual energy demand for buildings in urban areas is expected to increase by 27 EJ under the reference scenario (REF), from 57 EJ to 84 EJ per year, whereas ADV would lead to an overall reduction to 46 EJ per year by 2050, while the population and GDP continue to grow. Overall, the global energy demand in the transport sector is expected to increase by over 60% by 2050 under REF, whereas the deep mitigation pathway (ADV) reduces the transport energy demand below that of the base year, to 70 EJ per year. This is a significant reduction, even compared with other 450 ppm scenarios, and can be achieved by a drastic shift to electric mobility in response to vehicle efficiency standards, a phasing-out of combustion engines in the transport sector by 2030, and a modal shift in favor of urban public transport. The global energy demand for the building sector in ADV shows a smaller deviation in comparison to other 450 ppm scenarios than that for the transport sector.

In biological fluids, proteins may associate with nanoparticles (NPs), leading to the formation of a so-called "protein corona" largely defining the biological identity of the particle. Here, we present a novel approach to assess apparent binding affinities for the adsorption/desorption of proteins to silver NPs based on the impact of the corona formation on the agglomeration kinetics of the colloid. Affinities derived from circular dichroism measurements complement these results, simultaneously elucidating structural changes in the adsorbed protein. Employing human serum albumin as a model, apparent affinities in the nanomolar regime resulted from both approaches. Collectively, our findings now allow discrimination between the formation of protein mono- and multilayers on NP surfaces.

In most applications of biotechnology and downstream processing proteins are exposed to fluid stresses in various flow configurations which often lead to the formation of unwanted protein aggregates. In this paper we present physical degradation experiments for proteins under well-defined flow conditions in a four-roll apparatus. The flow field was characterized numerically by computational fluid dynamics (CFD) and experimentally by particle image velocimetry (PIV). The local shear strain rate as well as the local shear and elongation rate was used to characterize the hydrodynamic stress environment acting on the proteins. Lysozyme was used as a model protein and subjected to well-defined fluid stresses in high and low stress environment. By using in situ turbidity measurements during stressing the aggregate formation was monitored directly in the fluid flow. An increase in absorbance at 350 nm was attributed to a higher content of visible particles (>1 µm). In addition to lysozyme, the formation of aggregates was confirmed for two larger proteins (bovine serum albumin and alcohol dehydrogenase). Thus, the presented experimental setup is a helpful tool to monitor flow-induced protein aggregation with high reproducibility. For instance, screening experiments for formulation development of biopharmaceuticals for fill and finish operations can be performed in the lab-scale in a short time-period if the stress distributions in the application are transferred and applied in the four-roll mill. Biotechnol. Bioeng. 2011;108: 2914–2922. © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

The comminution of various powders produced by either spray-freeze-drying (SFD) or spray-drying (SD) on firing in a Ballistic powder injector could be evaluated quantitatively using light microscopic particle imaging. SFD lactose was damaged much less than SFD mannitol and was caused by greater mechanical strength and lower acceleration. SD lactose or mannitol showed much reduced comminution because of their low porosity. SFD lactose/mannitol/dextran 10 kDa formulations also showed less low comminution. The inclusion of catalase further reduced damage on firing. The extent of comminution on firing was found to be related to microparticle surface structure and porosity which influences both mechanical strength and acceleration.

This paper presents a model for analyzing the sustainable potential of agricultural biomass for energy production. Available land and residue potentials are assessed up to 2030 for Germany, Poland, the Czech Republic and Hungary. Two scenarios are presented: a “business as usual” scenario is compared to a sustainability scenario. The latter implements a comprehensive sustainability strategy, taking also into account non-agricultural land use such as building activity and nature conservation. On the one hand our model quantifies the conflict of objectives between enhanced extensification in agriculture and increased area for nature conservation. On the other hand the synergies in restricting built up area and increased mobilisation of agricultural residues are assessed. Additionally the impact of reduced subsidized agricultural exports from the EU is calculated, also as an indicator for the influence of world food markets on bioenergy potentials. Our results show that the sustainable energy potential from agricultural biomass is strongly restricted for Germany and the Czech Republic compared to their energy demand. But in Poland and Hungary native agricultural biomass provides a much higher potential for energy supply, even if sustainability is comprehensively considered. However, this is strongly influenced by the amount of agricultural exports of each country. For bioenergy from agricultural cultivation to remain a sustainable option in the energy sector, its influence on the food markets must be respected more thoroughly and a comprehensive approach to sustainable development in land use is a prerequisite.

A target-oriented scenario of future energy demand and supply is developed in a backcasting process. The main target is to reduce global CO 2 emissions to around 10 Gt/a in 2050, thus limiting global average temperature increase to 2 °C and preventing dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. A 10-region energy system model is used for simulating global energy supply strategies. A review of sector and region-specific energy efficiency measures resulted in the specification of a global energy demand scenario incorporating strong energy efficiency measures. The corresponding supply scenario has been developed in an iterative process in close cooperation with stakeholders and regional counterparts from academia, NGOs and the renewable energy industry. The 2 °C scenario shows that renewable energy could provide as much as half of the world's energy needs by 2050. Developing countries can virtually stabilise their CO 2 emissions, while at the same time increasing energy consumption through economic growth. OECD countries will be able to reduce their emissions by up to 80%.

Hypoxia of renal medulla is a key factor implicated in the development of drug-induced renal failure. Drugs are known to influence renal hemodynamics and, subsequently, affect renal tissue oxygenation. Changes in renal oxygenation can be assessed non-invasively in humans using blood oxygenation level-dependent magnetic resonance imaging (BOLD-MRI). This study was designed to test the acute effects of administration of specific drugs in healthy human kidney oxygenation using BOLD-MRI. Acute changes in renal tissue oxygenation induced by the non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drug indomethacin, the iodinated radio-contrast media (RCM) iopromidum, and the calcineurin inhibitors cyclosporine micro-emulsion (CsA-ME) and tracrolimus were studied in 30 healthy volunteers. A modified Multi Echo Data Image Combination sequence was used to acquire 12 T2*-weighted images. Four coronal slices were selected to cover both kidneys. The mean R2* (1/T2*) values determined in medulla and cortex showed no significant changes induced by indomethacin and tacrolimus administration. CsA-ME decreased medullary (P=0.008) and cortical (P=0.004) R2* values 2 h after ingestion. Iopromidum caused a significant increase in medullary R2* within the first 20 min after injection (P

The German government intends to cover the demand for primary energy by 16% of renewable energy in Germany in the year 2020, and to reduce CO2- emissions by 40% as opposed to the year 1990. One relevant CO2 emitter is energy sector which has a big potential to achieve this target. On the other hand, the demographic change will strongly influence the heat supply system, a part of the heat sector. The following chapter analyses the challenges that arise by the decreasing heat demand due to demographic change and the need for a modified heat supply system based on renewable energies to attain the given target. This is done by a spatial analysis using Geographical Information System taking into account the actual and future heat demand, the existing infrastructure stock and the potential of renewable energy (mainly solar, biomass and geothermal). The analysis shows that the decreasing heat demand in general is a critical precondition for network-bound heat supply infrastructure and that renewable energies can help in selected regions to provide CO2-neutral heat using existing or new district heat systems.

The Energy [R]evolution 2010 scenario is an update of the Energy [R]evolution scenarios published in 2007 and 2008. It takes up recent trends in global energy demand and production and analyses to which extent this affects chances for achieving climate protection targets. The main target is to reduce global CO2 emissions to 3.7 Gt/a in 2050, thus limiting global average temperature increase to below 2°C and preventing dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. A ten-region energy system model is used for simulating global energy supply strategies. A review of sector and region specific energy efficiency measures resulted in the specification of a global energy demand scenario incorporating strong energy efficiency measures. The corresponding supply scenario has been developed in an iterative process in close cooperation with stakeholders and regional counterparts from academia, NGOs and the renewable energy industry. The Energy [R]evolution scenario shows that renewable energy can provide more than 80% of the world's energy needs by 2050. Developing countries can virtually stabilise their CO2 emissions by 2025 and reduce afterwards, whilst at the same time increasing energy consumption due to economic growth. OECD countries will be able to reduce their emissions by up to 90% by 2050. However, without a comprehensive energy efficiency implementation strategy across all sectors, the renewable energy development alone will not be enough to make these drastic emissions cuts. © 2010 The Author(s).

The Energy [R]evolution 2008 scenario is an update of the Energy [R]evolution scenario published in 2007. It takes up recent trends in global socio-economic developments, and analyses to which extent they affect chances for achieving global climate protection targets. The main target is to reduce global CO2 emissions to 10 Gt per year in 2050, thus limiting global average temperature increase to 2 °C and preventing dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. A review of sector and region specific energy efficiency measures resulted in the specification of a global energy demand scenario incorporating strong energy efficiency measures. The corresponding energy supply scenario has been developed in an iterative process in close cooperation with stakeholders and regional counterparts from academia, NGOs and the renewable energy industry. The Energy [R]evolution scenario shows that renewable energy can provide more than half of the world's energy needs by 2050. Developing countries can virtually stabilise their CO2 emissions, whilst at the same time increasing energy consumption through economic growth. OECD countries will be able to reduce their emissions by up to 80%.

To prospectively evaluate feasibility and reproducibility of diffusion-weighted (DW) and blood oxygenation level-dependent (BOLD) magnetic resonance (MR) imaging in patients with renal allografts, as compared with these features in healthy volunteers with native kidneys.The local ethics committee approved the study protocol; patients provided written informed consent. Fifteen patients with a renal allograft and in stable condition (nine men, six women; age range, 20-67 years) and 15 age- and sex-matched healthy volunteers underwent DW and BOLD MR imaging. Seven patients with renal allografts were examined twice to assess reproducibility of results. DW MR imaging yielded a total apparent diffusion coefficient including diffusion and microperfusion (ADC(tot)), as well as an ADC reflecting predominantly pure diffusion (ADC(D)) and the perfusion fraction. R2* of BOLD MR imaging enabled the estimation of renal oxygenation. Statistical analysis was performed, and analysis of variance was used for repeated measurements. Coefficients of variation between and within subjects were calculated to assess reproducibility.In patients, ADC(tot), ADC(D), and perfusion fraction were similar in the cortex and medulla. In volunteers, values in the medulla were similar to those in the cortex and medulla of patients; however, values in the cortex were higher than those in the medulla (P.05). Medullary R2* was higher than cortical R2* in patients (12.9 sec(-1) +/- 2.1 [standard deviation] vs 11.0 sec(-1) +/- 0.6, P.007) and volunteers (15.3 sec(-1) +/- 1.1 vs 11.5 sec(-1) +/- 0.5, P.0001). However, medullary R2* was lower in patients than in volunteers (P.004). Increased medullary R2* was paralleled by decreased diffusion in patients with allografts. A low coefficient of variation in the cortex and medulla within subjects was obtained for ADC(tot), ADC(D), and R2* (5.2%), while coefficient of variation within subjects was higher for perfusion fraction (medulla, 15.1%; cortex, 8.6%). Diffusion and perfusion indexes correlated significantly with serum creatinine concentrations.DW and BOLD MR imaging are feasible and reproducible in patients with renal allografts.

Biomass is broadly applicable in the energy sector for power, heat and transport, but it is strongly restricted by its availability. If biomass is supposed to contribute to a more sustainable energy system, its limited potential needs to be respected. Especially energy crops are in heavy competition with food and fi ber production, nature conservation and construction activity. This paper presents a model HEKTOR which helps to analyse the interdependencies between these various land uses. HEKTOR is a scenario tool that provides insight in the availability of agricultural land for the production of energy crops under sustainability restrictions on a national level. The model was applied to Poland and Germany. Two scenarios are presented: A ‘business-as-usual’ scenario is compared to a ‘sustainability’ scenario. On the one hand, the model quantifi es the confl ict of objectives between enhanced extensifi cation in agriculture and increased area for nature conservation. On the other hand, the synergies in restricting construction activity are assessed. Our results show that the sustainable energy potential from energy crops is strongly restricted for Germany compared to its energy demand whereas in Poland domestic agricultural biomass provides a much higher potential for energy supply, even if sustainability is comprehensively considered. Still, strong interdependencies with other land use are found. For energy crops to remain a sustainable option in the energy sector, its infl uence on the food markets must be considered more thoroughly and a comprehensive approach to sustainable development in land use is a prerequisite.

Apparent electrical conductivity (ECa) of soils can be measured easily by nondestructive methods and, therefore, could be useful in the mapping of soil properties, which influence ECa. The influences of soil structure, bulk density, clay and water content, EC of the soil solution, and cation exchang