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Urban growth, a pivotal characteristic of economic development, brings many environmental and ecological challenges. Modeling urban growth is essential for understanding its spatial dynamics and projecting future trends, providing insights for effective urban planning and sustainable development. This study aims to assess the spatiotemporal patterns of urban growth and morphological evolution in mainland Shanghai from 2016 to 2060 using the SLEUTH model under multiple growth scenarios based on the Shanghai Urban Master Plan (2017–2035). A comprehensive set of urban growth metrics and quadrant analysis were employed to quantify the magnitude, rate, intensity, and direction of urban growth, as well as morphological evolution, over time. We found that (1) significant urban growth was observed across most scenarios, with the exception of stringent land protection. The most substantial growth occurred prior to 2045 with an obvious north–south disparity, where southern regions demonstrated more pronounced increases in urban land area and urbanization rates. (2) The spatiotemporal patterns of the rate and intensity of urban growth exhibited similar characteristics. The spatial pattern followed a "concave shape" pattern and displayed anisotropic behavior, with the high values for these indicators primarily observed before 2025. (3) The urban form followed a diffusion–coalescence process, with patch areas dominated by the infilling mode and patch numbers dominated by the edge-expansion mode. This resulted in significant alternating urban growth models in the infilling, edge-expansion, and leapfrog modes over time, influenced by varying protection intensities. These findings provide valuable insights for forward-looking urban planning, land use optimization, and the support of sustainable urban development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Green initiatives are popular mechanisms globally to enhance environmental and human wellbeing. However, multiple green initiatives, when overlapping geographically and targeting the same participants, may interact with each other, giving rise to what is termed "spillover effects", where one initiative and its outcomes influence another. This study examines the spillover effects among four major concurrent initiatives in the United States (U.S.) and China using a comprehensive dataset. In the U.S., we analysed county-level data in 2018 for the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) and the Environmental Quality Incentives Program (EQIP), both operational for over 25 years. In China, data from Fanjingshan and Tianma National Nature Reserves (2014–2015) were used to evaluate the Grain-to-Green Program (GTGP) and the Forest Ecological Benefit Compensation (FEBC) program. The dataset comprises 3106 records for the U.S. and 711 plots for China, including several socio-economic variables. The results of multivariate linear regression indicate that there exist significant spillover effects between CRP & EQIP and GTGP & FEBC, with one initiative potentially enhancing or offsetting another's impacts by 22% to 100%. This dataset provides valuable insights for researchers and policymakers to optimize the effectiveness and resilience of concurrent green initiatives. Dataset:  https://data.mendeley.com/datasets/bbg7szr6yr/1 (accessed on 25 September 2024). Dataset License: The license under which the dataset is made available is CC-BY. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Forests play a key role in the mitigation of global warming and provide many other vital ecosystem goods and services. However, as forest continues to vanish at an alarming rate from the surface of the planet, the world desperately needs knowledge on what contributes to forest preservation and restoration. Migration, a hallmark of globalization, is widely recognized as a main driver of forest recovery and poverty alleviation. Here, we show that remittance from migrants reinforces forest recovery that would otherwise be unlikely with mere migration, realizing the additionality of payments for ecosystem services for China's largest reforestation policy, the Conversion of Cropland to Forest Program (CCFP). Guided by the framework that integrates telecoupling and coupled natural and human systems, we investigate forest-livelihood dynamics under the CCFP through the lens of rural out-migration and remittance using both satellite remote sensing imagery and household survey data in two representative sites of rural China. Results show that payments from the CCFP significantly increases the probability of sending remittance by out-migrants to their origin households. We observe substantial forest regeneration and greening surrounding households receiving remittance but forest decline and browning in proximity to households with migrants but not receiving remittance, as measured by forest coverage and the Enhanced Vegetation Index derived from space-borne remotely sensed data. The primary mechanism is that remittance reduces the reliance of households on natural capital from forests, particularly fuelwood, allowing forests near the households to recover. The shares of the estimated ecological and economic additionality induced by remittance are 2.0% (1.4%∼3.8%) and 9.7% (5.0%∼15.2%), respectively, to the baseline of the reforested areas enrolled in CCFP and the payments received by the participating households. Remittance-facilitated forest regeneration amounts to 12.7% (6.0%∼18.0%) of the total new forest gained during the 2003–2013 in China. Our results demonstrate that remittance constitutes a telecoupling mechanism between rural areas and cities over long distances, influencing the local social-ecological gains that the forest policy intended to stimulate. Thus, supporting remittance-sending migrants in cities can be an effective global warming mitigation strategy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]