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Abstract Background Telephone hotlines in infectious diseases (ID) are part of antimicrobial stewardship programs designed to provide support and expertise in ID and to control antibiotic resistance. The aim of the study was to characterize the activity of the ID hotlines and estimate their usefulness for general practitioners (GPs). Methods This was a multicenter prospective observational study in different French regions. ID teams involved in antimicrobial stewardship with a hotline for GPs were asked to record their advice from April 2019 to June 2022. In these regions, all GPs were informed of the ID hotline’s operating procedures. The main outcome was usage rate of the hotlines by GPs. Results Ten volunteer ID teams collected 4138 requests for advice from 2171 GPs. The proportion of GPs using the hotline varied pronouncedly by region, from 54% in the Isere department, to less than 1% in departments with the lowest usage. These differences were associated with the number of physicians in ID teams and with the age of the hotline. These results highlighted the value of working time as a means of ensuring the permanence of expertise. The main reasons for calling were: a diagnostic question (44%); choice of antibiotic (31%). The ID specialist provided advice on antibiotic therapy (43%) or a proposal for specialized consultation or hospitalization (11%). Conclusions ID hotlines could help to strengthen cooperation between primary care and hospital medicine. However, the deployment and perpetuation of this activity require reflection concerning its institutional and financial support.

Three years after the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, better knowledge on the transmission of respiratory viral infections (RVI) including the contribution of asymptomatic infections encouraged most healthcare centers to implement universal masking. The evolution of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemiology and improved immunization of the population call for the infection and prevention control community to revisit the masking strategy in healthcare. In this narrative review, we consider factors for de-escalating universal masking in healthcare centers, addressing compliance with the mask policy, local epidemiology, the level of protection provided by medical face masks, the consequences of absenteeism and presenteeism, as well as logistics, costs, and ecological impact. Most current national and international guidelines for mask use are based on the level of community transmission of SARS-CoV-2. Actions are now required to refine future recommendations, such as establishing a list of the most relevant RVI to consider, implement reliable local RVI surveillance, and define thresholds for activating masking strategies. Considering the epidemiological context (measured via sentinel networks or wastewater analysis), and, if not available, considering a time period (winter season) may guide to three gradual levels of masking: (i) standard and transmission-based precautions and respiratory etiquette, (ii) systematic face mask wearing when in direct contact with patients, and (iii) universal masking. Cost-effectiveness analysis of the different strategies is warranted in the coming years. Masking is just one element to be considered along with other preventive measures such as staff and patient immunization, and efficient ventilation.

Background Throughout the COVID-19 pandemic, testing individuals remains a key action. One approach to rapid testing is to consider the olfactory capacities of trained detection dogs. Methods Prospective cohort study in two community COVID-19 screening centers. Two nasopharyngeal swabs (NPS), one saliva and one sweat samples were simultaneously collected. The dog handlers (and the dogs…) were blinded with regards to the Covid status. The diagnostic accuracy of non-invasive detection of SARS-CoV-2 infection by canine olfaction was assessed as compared to nasopharyngeal RT-PCR as the reference standard, saliva RT-PCR and nasopharyngeal antigen testing. Results 335 ambulatory adults (143 symptomatic and 192 asymptomatic) were included. Overall, 109/335 participants tested positive on nasopharyngeal RT-PCR either in symptomatic (78/143) or in asymptomatic participants (31/192). The overall sensitivity of canine detection was 97% (95% CI, 92 to 99) and even reached 100% (95% CI, 89 to 100) in asymptomatic individuals compared to NPS RT-PCR. The specificity was 91% (95% CI, 72 to 91), reaching 94% (95% CI, 90 to 97) for asymptomatic individuals. The sensitivity of canine detection was higher than that of nasopharyngeal antigen testing (97% CI: 91 to 99 versus 84% CI: 74 to 90, p = 0.006), but the specificity was lower (90% CI: 84 to 95 versus 97% CI: 93 to 99, p = 0.016). Conclusions Non-invasive detection of SARS-CoV-2 infection by canine olfaction could be one alternative to NPS RT-PCR when it is necessary to obtain a result very quickly according to the same indications as antigenic tests in the context of mass screening.

Abstract Background Healthcare-associated infections involving Gram-negative bacteria (GNB) with difficult-to-treat resistance (DTR) phenotype are associated with impaired patient-centered outcomes and poses daily therapeutic challenges in most of intensive care units worldwide. Over the recent years, four innovative β-lactam/β-lactamase inhibitor (BL/BLI) combinations (ceftolozane–tazobactam, ceftazidime–avibactam, imipenem–relebactam and meropenem–vaborbactam) and a new siderophore cephalosporin (cefiderocol) have been approved for the treatment of certain DTR-GNB infections. The literature addressing their microbiological spectrum, pharmacokinetics, clinical efficacy and safety was exhaustively audited by our group to support the recent guidelines of the French Intensive Care Society on their utilization in critically ill patients. This narrative review summarizes the available evidence and unanswered questions on these issues. Methods A systematic search for English-language publications in PUBMED and the Cochrane Library database from inception to November 15, 2022. Results These drugs have demonstrated relevant clinical success rates and a reduced renal risk in most of severe infections for whom polymyxin- and/or aminoglycoside-based regimen were historically used as last-resort strategies—namely, ceftazidime–avibactam for infections due to Klebsiella pneumoniae carbapenemase (KPC)- or OXA-48-like-producing Enterobacterales, meropenem–vaborbactam for KPC-producing Enterobacterales, ceftazidime–avibactam/aztreonam combination or cefiderocol for metallo-β-lactamase (MBL)-producing Enterobacterales, and ceftolozane–tazobactam, ceftazidime–avibactam and imipenem–relebactam for non-MBL-producing DTR Pseudomonas aeruginosa. However, limited clinical evidence exists in critically ill patients. Extended-infusion scheme (except for imipenem–relebactam) may be indicated for DTR-GNB with high minimal inhibitory concentrations and/or in case of augmented renal clearance. The potential benefit of combining these agents with other antimicrobials remains under-investigated, notably for the most severe presentations. Other important knowledge gaps include pharmacokinetic information in particular situations (e.g., pneumonia, other deep-seated infections, and renal replacement therapy), the hazard of treatment-emergent resistance and possible preventive measures, the safety of high-dose regimen, the potential usefulness of rapid molecular diagnostic tools to rationalize their empirical utilization, and optimal treatment durations. Comparative clinical, ecological, and medico-economic data are needed for infections in whom two or more of these agents exhibit in vitro activity against the causative pathogen. Conclusions New BL/BLI combinations and cefiderocol represent long-awaited options for improving the management of DTR-GNB infections. Several research axes must be explored to better define the positioning and appropriate administration scheme of these drugs in critically ill patients.

Abstract Background Spread of resistant bacteria causes severe morbidity and mortality. Stringent control measures can be expensive and disrupt hospital organization. In the present study, we assessed the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of control strategies to prevent the spread of Carbapenemase-producing Enterobacterales (CPE) in a general hospital ward (GW). Methods A dynamic, stochastic model simulated the transmission of CPE by the hands of healthcare workers (HCWs) and the environment in a hypothetical 25-bed GW. Input parameters were based on published data; we assumed the prevalence at admission of 0.1%. 12 strategies were compared to the baseline (no control) and combined different prevention and control interventions: targeted or universal screening at admission (TS or US), contact precautions (CP), isolation in a single room, dedicated nursing staff (DNS) for carriers and weekly screening of contact patients (WSC). Time horizon was one year. Outcomes were the number of CPE acquisitions, costs, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICER). A hospital perspective was adopted to estimate costs, which included laboratory costs, single room, contact precautions, staff time, i.e. infection control nurse and/or dedicated nursing staff, and lost bed-days due to prolonged hospital stay of identified carriers. The model was calibrated on actual datasets. Sensitivity analyses were performed. Results The baseline scenario resulted in 0.93 CPE acquisitions/1000 admissions and costs 32,050 €/1000 admissions. All control strategies increased costs and improved the outcome. The efficiency frontier was represented by: (1) TS with DNS at a 17,407 €/avoided CPE case, (2) TS + DNS + WSC at a 30,700 €/avoided CPE case and (3) US + DNS + WSC at 181,472 €/avoided CPE case. Other strategies were dominated. Sensitivity analyses showed that TS + CP might be cost-effective if CPE carriers are identified upon admission or if the cases have a short hospital stay. However, CP were effective only when high level of compliance with hand hygiene was obtained. Conclusions Targeted screening at admission combined with DNS for identified CPE carriers with or without weekly screening were the most cost-effective options to limit the spread of CPE. These results support current recommendations from several high-income countries.

Abstract Background The 2011 4th European Conference on Infections in Leukemia (ECIL4) guidelines recommend antibiotics de-escalation/discontinuation in selected febrile neutropenia (FN) patients. We aimed to assess the impact of an antimicrobial stewardship (AMS) program based on these guidelines on antibiotics use and clinical outcomes in high-risk FN patients. Methods We conducted an observational study in the hematology department of Cochin University Hospital in Paris, France. An ECIL4-based antibiotics de-escalation and discontinuation strategy was implemented jointly by the hematologists and the AMS team. The pre-intervention (January–October 2018) and post-intervention (January-October 2019) periods were compared. We retrospectively collected clinical and microbiological data. We compiled antibiotics consumptions via hospital pharmacy data and standardized them by calculating defined daily doses per 1000 patient-days. We analyzed the two-monthly antibiotic consumption using an interrupted time series method and built a composite endpoint for clinical outcomes based on transfer to the intensive care unit (ICU) and/or hospital death. Results Overall, 273 hospital stays (164 patients) in the pre-intervention and 217 (148 patients) in the post-intervention periods were analyzed. Patients were mainly hospitalized for intensive chemotherapy for acute leukemia or autologous stem-cell transplant for myeloma. Patients were slightly younger in the pre-intervention compared to the post-intervention period (median age 60.4 vs 65.2 years, p = 0.049), but otherwise comparable. After implementation of the AMS program, glycopeptide and carbapenem use decreased by 85% (p = 0.03) and 72% (p = 0.04), respectively. After adjustment on confounders, the risk of transfer to the ICU/death decreased significantly after implementation of the AMS program (post-intervention period: odds-ratio = 0.29, 95% Confidence Interval: 0.15–0.53, p

Abstract Rapid identification of SARS-CoV-2-infected individuals is a cornerstone for the control of virus spread. The sensitivity of SARS-CoV-2 RNA detection by RT-PCR is similar in saliva and nasopharyngeal swabs. Rapid molecular point-of-care tests in saliva could facilitate, broaden and speed up the diagnosis. We conducted a prospective study in two community COVID-19 screening centers to evaluate the performances of a CE-marked RT-LAMP assay (EasyCoV) designed for the detection of SARS-CoV2 RNA from fresh saliva samples, compared to nasopharyngeal RT-PCR, to saliva RT-PCR and to nasopharyngeal antigen testing. Overall, 117 of the 1718 participants (7%) tested positive with nasopharyngeal RT-PCR. Compared to nasopharyngeal RT-PCR, the sensitivity and specificity of the RT-LAMP assay in saliva were 34% and 97%, respectively. The Ct values of nasopharyngeal RT-PCR were significantly lower in the 40 true positive subjects with saliva RT-LAMP (Ct 25.9) than in the 48 false negative subjects with saliva RT-LAMP (Ct 28.4) (p = 0.028). Considering six alternate criteria for reference tests, including saliva RT-PCR and nasopharyngeal antigen, the sensitivity of saliva RT-LAMP ranged between 27 and 44%. The detection of SARS-CoV-2 in crude saliva samples with an RT-LAMP assay had a lower sensitivity than nasopharyngeal RT-PCR, saliva RT-PCR and nasopharyngeal antigen testing. Registration number: NCT04578509.

ABSTRACT Monoclonal antibodies (MAbs) targeting the Spike glycoprotein of SARS-CoV-2 is a key strategy to prevent severe COVID-19. Here, the efficacy of two monoclonal antibody bitherapies against SARS-CoV-2 was assessed on 92 patients at high risk of severe COVID-19 between March and October 2021 (Bichat-Claude Bernard Hospital, Paris, France). Nine patients died despite appropriate management. From 14 days following treatment initiation, we observed a slower viral load decay for patients treated with the bitherapy Bamlanivimab/Etsevimab compared to the Casirivimab/Imdevimab association therapy (P = 0.045). The emergence of several mutations on the Spike protein known to diminish antiviral efficacy was observed from 1 to 3 weeks after infusion. The Q493R mutation was frequently selected, located in a region of joint structural overlap by Bamlanivimab/Etsevimab antibodies. Despite that this study was done on former SARS-CoV-2 variants (Alpha and Delta), the results provide new insights into resistance mechanisms in SARS-CoV-2 antibodies neutralization escape and should be considered for current and novel variants. IMPORTANCE Monoclonal antibody bitherapies (MAbs) are commonly prescribed to treat severe SARS-CoV-2-positive patients, and the rapid growth of resistance mutation emergence is alarming globally. To explore this issue, we conducted both clinical and genomic analyses of SARS-CoV-2 in a series of patients treated in 2021. We first noticed that the two dual therapies prescribed during the study had different kinetics of viral load decay. Rapidly after initiation of the treatments, resistance mutations emerged in the interface between the MAbs and the target Spike glycoprotein, demonstrating the importance to continuously screen the viral genome during treatment course. Taken together, the results highlight that viral mutations may emerge under selective pressure, conferring a putative competitive advantage, and could rapidly spread, as observed for the Omicron variant.

Abstract Background Microvascular, arterial and venous thrombotic events have been largely described during severe coronavirus disease 19 (COVID-19). However, mechanisms underlying hemostasis dysregulation remain unclear. Methods We explored two independent cross-sectional cohorts to identify soluble markers and gene-expression signatures that discriminated COVID-19 severity and outcomes. Results We found that elevated soluble (s)P-selectin at admission was associated with disease severity. Elevated sP-selectin was predictive of intubation and death (ROC AUC = 0.67, p = 0.028 and AUC = 0.74, p = 0.0047, respectively). An optimal cutoff value was predictive of intubation with 66% negative predictive value (NPV) and 61% positive predictive value (PPV), and of death with 90% NPV and 55% PPV. An unbiased gene set enrichment analysis revealed that critically ill patients had increased expression of genes related to platelet activation. Hierarchical clustering identified ITG2AB, GP1BB, PPBP and SELPLG to be upregulated in a grade-dependent manner. ROC curve analysis for the prediction of intubation was significant for SELPLG and PPBP (AUC = 0.8, p = 0.046 for both). An optimal cutoff value for PBPP was predictive of intubation with 100% NPV and 45% PPV, and for SELPLG with 100% NPV and 50% PPV. Conclusion We provide evidence that platelets contribute to COVID-19 severity. Plasma sP-selectin level was associated with severity and in-hospital mortality. Transcriptional analysis identified PPBP/CXCL7 and SELPLG as biomarkers for intubation. These findings provide additional evidence for platelet activation in driving critical COVID-19. Specific studies evaluating the performance of these biomarkers are required.

Abstract The cholinergic system has been proposed as a potential regulator of COVID-19-induced hypercytokinemia. We investigated whole-blood expression of cholinergic system members and correlated it with COVID-19 severity. Patients with confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection and healthy aged-matched controls were included in this non-interventional study. A whole blood sample was drawn between 9–11 days after symptoms onset, and peripheral leukocyte phenotyping, cytokines measurement, RNA expression and plasma viral load were determined. Additionally, whole-blood expression of native alpha-7 nicotinic subunit and its negative dominant duplicate (CHRFAM7A), choline acetyltransferase and acetylcholine esterase (AchE) were determined. Thirty-seven patients with COVID-19 (10 moderate, 11 severe and 16 with critical disease) and 14 controls were included. Expression of CHRFAM7A was significantly lower in critical COVID-19 patients compared to controls. COVID-19 patients not expressing CHRFAM7A had higher levels of CRP, more extended pulmonary lesions and displayed more pronounced lymphopenia. COVID-19 patients without CHRFAM7A expression also showed increased TNF pathway expression in whole blood. AchE was also expressed in 30 COVID-19 patients and in all controls. COVID-19-induced hypercytokinemia is associated with decreased expression of the pro-inflammatory dominant negative duplicate CHRFAM7A. Expression of this duplicate might be considered before targeting the cholinergic system in COVID-19 with nicotine.

Abstract Background Improving timeliness of pathogen identification is crucial to allow early adaptation of antibiotic therapy and improve prognosis in patients with pneumonia. We evaluated the relevance of a new syndromic rapid multiplex PCR test (rm-PCR) on respiratory samples to guide empirical antimicrobial therapy in adult patients with community-acquired pneumonia (CAP), hospital-acquired pneumonia (HAP), and ventilator-acquired pneumonia (VAP). Methods This retrospective multicenter study was conducted in four French university hospitals. Respiratory samples were obtained from patients with clinical and radiological signs of pneumonia and simultaneously tested using conventional microbiological methods and the rm-PCR. A committee composed of an intensivist, a microbiologist, and an infectious diseases specialist retrospectively assessed all medical files and agreed on the most appropriate antimicrobial therapy for each pneumonia episode, according to the results of rm-PCR and blinded to the culture results. The rm-PCR-guided antimicrobial regimen was compared to the empirical treatment routinely administered to the patient in standard care. Results We included 159 pneumonia episodes. Most patients were hospitalized in intensive care units (n = 129, 81%), and episodes were HAP (n = 68, 43%), CAP (n = 54, 34%), and VAP (n = 37, 23%). Conventional culture isolated ≥ 1 microorganism(s) at significant level in 95 (60%) patients. The syndromic rm-PCR detected at least one bacteria in 132 (83%) episodes. Based on the results of the rm-PCR, the multidisciplinary committee proposed a modification of the empirical therapy in 123 (77%) pneumonia episodes. The modification was a de-escalation in 63 (40%), an escalation in 35 (22%), and undetermined in 25 (16%) patients. In microbiologically documented episodes (n = 95), the rm-PCR increased appropriateness of the empirical therapy to 83 (87%), as compared to 73 (77%) in routine care. Conclusions Use of a syndromic rm-PCR test has the potential to reduce unnecessary antimicrobial exposure and increase the appropriateness of empirical antibiotic therapy in adult patients with pneumonia.

(1) Background: Cephalosporins (CA) are the first-line antibiotic prophylaxis recommended to prevent surgical site infection (SSI) after cardiac surgery. The combination of vancomycin/gentamicin (VGA) might represent a good alternative, but few studies have evaluated its efficacy in SSI prevention. (2) Methods: A single-centre retrospective study was conducted over a 13-year period in all consecutive adult patients undergoing elective cardiac surgery. Patients were stratified according to the type of antibiotic prophylaxis. CA served as the first-line prophylaxis, and VGA was used as the second-line prophylaxis. The primary endpoint was SSI occurrence at 90 days, which was defined as the need for reoperation due to SSI. (3) Results: In total, 14,960 adult patients treated consecutively from 2006 to 2019 were included in this study, of whom 1774 (12%) received VGA and 540 (3.7%) developed SSI. VGA patients had higher severity with increased 90-day mortality. Nevertheless, the frequency of SSI was similar between CA and VGA patients. However, the microbiological aetiologies were different, with more Gram-negative bacteria noted in the VGA group. (4) Conclusions: VGA seems to be as effective as CA in preventing SSI.

Abstract Background Pregnancy is a risk factor for severe influenza resulting in increased risks of hospitalisation and death in mothers and their new-borns. Our objective was to assess the representativeness and participation of French women to a new web-based collaborative tool for data collection and monitoring of Influenza Like Illness (ILI) during pregnancy. Methods During the 2014/2015 influenza season, pregnant women living in metropolitan France were enrolled through a web platform ( https://www.grippenet.fr/ ). Then throughout the season, participants were asked to report, on a weekly basis, if they had experienced symptoms of ILI. Representativeness was assessed by comparing the characteristics of participants to those of the French National Perinatal Survey. For each participant, the participation rate was the number of weekly questionnaires completed, divided by the length of follow-up (in weeks). Predictors of active participation (participation rate >15 %) were assessed by multivariate logistic regression. Results A total of 153 women were enrolled. Participants were older (mean age 34 years vs. 29 years) and more highly educated (high school level 89 % versus 52 %) than the general population of pregnant women in France, but the sample did not differ on pregnancy-related characteristics (parity, history of hospitalisation during a previous pregnancy). The median rate of participation was high (78 %, interquartile range: 34–96). Higher educational level and participation to a previous GrippeNet.fr season were associated with active participation. Conclusion Despite small sample size and lack of representativeness, the retention rate was high, suggesting that pregnant women are prone to adhere to a longitudinal follow-up of their health status via the Internet.

BackgroundShigella dysenteriae type 1 (Sd1) is a cause of major dysentery outbreaks, particularly among children and displaced populations in tropical countries. Although outbreaks continue, the characteristics of such outbreaks have rarely been documented. Here, we describe the Sd1 outbreaks occurring between 1993 and 1995 in 11 refugee settlements in Rwanda, Tanzania and Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). We also explored the links between the different types of the camps and the magnitude of the outbreaks.Methodology/principal findingsNumber of cases of bloody diarrhea and deaths were collected on a weekly basis in 11 refugee camps, and analyzed retrospectively. Between November 1993 and February 1995, 181,921 cases of bloody diarrhea were reported. Attack rates ranged from 6.3% to 39.1% and case fatality ratios (CFRs) from 1.5% to 9.0% (available for 5 camps). The CFRs were higher in children under age 5. In Tanzania where the response was rapidly deployed, the mean attack rate was lower than in camps in the region of Goma without an immediate response (13.3% versus 32.1% respectively).Conclusions/significanceThis description, and the areas where data is missing, highlight both the importance of collecting data in future epidemics, difficulties in documenting outbreaks occurring in complex emergencies and most importantly, the need to assure that minimal requirements are met.

BACKGROUND: Lassa fever is a viral hemorrhagic fever endemic in West Africa. The reservoir host of the virus is a multimammate rat, Mastomys natalensis. Prevalence estimates of Lassa virus antibodies in humans vary greatly between studies, and the main modes of transmission of the virus from rodents to humans remain unclear. We aimed to (i) estimate the prevalence of Lassa virus-specific IgG antibodies (LV IgG) in the human population of a rural area of Guinea, and (ii) identify risk factors for positive LV IgG. METHODS AND FINDINGS: A population-based cross-sectional study design was used. In April 2000, all individuals one year of age and older living in three prefectures located in the tropical secondary forest area of Guinea (Gueckedou, Lola and Yomou) were sampled using two-stage cluster sampling. For each individual identified by the sampling procedure and who agreed to participate, a standardized questionnaire was completed to collect data on personal exposure to potential risk factors for Lassa fever (mainly contact with rodents), and a blood sample was tested for LV IgG. A multiple logistic regression model was used to determine risk factors for positive LV IgG. A total of 1424 subjects were interviewed and 977 sera were tested. Prevalence of positive LV Ig was of 12.9% [10.8%-15.0%] and 10.0% [8.1%-11.9%] in rural and urban areas, respectively. Two risk factors of positive LV IgG were identified: to have, in the past twelve months, undergone an injection (odds ratio [OR] = 1.8 [1.1-3.1]), or lived with someone displaying a haemorrhage (OR = 1.7 [1.1-2.9]). No factors related to contacts with rats and/or mice remained statistically significant in the multivariate analysis. CONCLUSIONS: Our study underlines the potential importance of person-to-person transmission of Lassa fever, via close contact in the same household or nosocomial exposure.

BACKGROUND: Although strategies to contain influenza pandemics are well studied, the characterization and the implications of different geographical and temporal diffusion patterns of the pandemic have been given less attention. METHODOLOGY/MAIN FINDINGS: Using a well-documented metapopulation model incorporating air travel between 52 major world cities, we identified potential influenza pandemic diffusion profiles and examined how the impact of interventions might be affected by this heterogeneity. Clustering methods applied to a set of pandemic simulations, characterized by seven parameters related to the conditions of emergence that were varied following Latin hypercube sampling, were used to identify six pandemic profiles exhibiting different characteristics notably in terms of global burden (from 415 to >160 million of cases) and duration (from 26 to 360 days). A multivariate sensitivity analysis showed that the transmission rate and proportion of susceptibles have a strong impact on the pandemic diffusion. The correlation between interventions and pandemic outcomes were analyzed for two specific profiles: a fast, massive pandemic and a slow building, long-lasting one. In both cases, the date of introduction for five control measures (masks, isolation, prophylactic or therapeutic use of antivirals, vaccination) correlated strongly with pandemic outcomes. Conversely, the coverage and efficacy of these interventions only moderately correlated with pandemic outcomes in the case of a massive pandemic. Pre-pandemic vaccination influenced pandemic outcomes in both profiles, while travel restriction was the only measure without any measurable effect in either. CONCLUSIONS: our study highlights: (i) the great heterogeneity in possible profiles of a future influenza pandemic; (ii) the value of being well prepared in every country since a pandemic may have heavy consequences wherever and whenever it starts; (iii) the need to quickly implement control measures and even to anticipate pandemic emergence through pre-pandemic vaccination; and (iv) the value of combining all available control measures except perhaps travel restrictions.