75 results on '"Solar storm"'
Search Results
2. The Fragile State of Industrial Agriculture: Estimating Crop Yield Reductions in a Global Catastrophic Infrastructure Loss Scenario.
- Author
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Moersdorf, Jessica, Rivers, Morgan, Denkenberger, David, Breuer, Lutz, and Jehn, Florian Ulrich
- Subjects
AGRICULTURAL policy ,CROP yields ,ELECTRIC power distribution grids ,INDUSTRIALISM ,STORMS ,PESTICIDES - Abstract
Modern civilization relies on a complex, globally interconnected industrial agriculture system to produce food. Its unprecedented yields hinge on external inputs like machinery, fertilizers, and pesticides, rendering it vulnerable to disruptions in production and international trade. Such a disruption could be caused by large‐scale damage to the electrical grid. Solar storms, nuclear detonations in the upper atmosphere, pandemics, or cyber‐attacks, could cause this severe damage to electrical infrastructure. To assess the impact of such a global catastrophic infrastructure loss on major food crops (corn, rice, soybean, wheat), we employ a generalized linear model. The predictions show a crop‐specific yield reduction between 15% and 37% in phase 1, the year after the catastrophe, assuming rationed use of fertilizers, pesticides, and fuel stocks. In phase 2, when all stocks are depleted, yields decrease by 35%–48%. Soybean is less affected in phase 1, while all crops experience strong declines in phase 2. Europe, North and South America, and parts of India, China, and Indonesia face major yield reductions, potentially up to 75%, while most African countries are less affected. These findings underscore the necessity for preparation by highlighting the vulnerability of the food system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2024
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
3. The Fragile State of Industrial Agriculture: Estimating Crop Yield Reductions in a Global Catastrophic Infrastructure Loss Scenario
- Author
-
Jessica Moersdorf, Morgan Rivers, David Denkenberger, Lutz Breuer, and Florian Ulrich Jehn
- Subjects
electrical grid ,food security ,global catastrophic infrastructure loss ,global catastrophic risks ,solar storm ,Technology ,Environmental sciences ,GE1-350 - Abstract
Abstract Modern civilization relies on a complex, globally interconnected industrial agriculture system to produce food. Its unprecedented yields hinge on external inputs like machinery, fertilizers, and pesticides, rendering it vulnerable to disruptions in production and international trade. Such a disruption could be caused by large‐scale damage to the electrical grid. Solar storms, nuclear detonations in the upper atmosphere, pandemics, or cyber‐attacks, could cause this severe damage to electrical infrastructure. To assess the impact of such a global catastrophic infrastructure loss on major food crops (corn, rice, soybean, wheat), we employ a generalized linear model. The predictions show a crop‐specific yield reduction between 15% and 37% in phase 1, the year after the catastrophe, assuming rationed use of fertilizers, pesticides, and fuel stocks. In phase 2, when all stocks are depleted, yields decrease by 35%–48%. Soybean is less affected in phase 1, while all crops experience strong declines in phase 2. Europe, North and South America, and parts of India, China, and Indonesia face major yield reductions, potentially up to 75%, while most African countries are less affected. These findings underscore the necessity for preparation by highlighting the vulnerability of the food system.
- Published
- 2024
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
4. Interplanetary Causes and Impacts of the 2024 May Superstorm on the Geosphere: An Overview
- Author
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Rajkumar Hajra, Bruce Tsatnam Tsurutani, Gurbax Singh Lakhina, Quanming Lu, and Aimin Du
- Subjects
Space weather ,Solar storm ,Interplanetary magnetic fields ,Solar wind ,Astrophysics ,QB460-466 - Abstract
The recent superstorm of 2024 May 10–11 is the second largest geomagnetic storm in the space age and the only one that has simultaneous interplanetary data (there were no interplanetary data for the 1989 March storm). The May superstorm was characterized by a sudden impulse (SI ^+ ) amplitude of +88 nT, followed by a three-step storm main-phase development, which had a total duration of ∼9 hr. The cause of the first storm main phase with a peak SYM-H intensity of −183 nT was a fast-forward interplanetary shock (magnetosonic Mach number M _ms ∼ 7.2) and an interplanetary sheath with a southward interplanetary magnetic field component B _s of ∼40 nT. The cause of the second storm's main phase with an SYM-H intensity of −354 nT was a deepening of the sheath B _s to ∼43 nT. A magnetosonic wave ( M _ms ∼ 0.6) compressed the sheath to a high magnetic field strength of ∼71 nT. Intensified B _s of ∼48 nT were the cause of the third and most intense storm main phase, with an SYM-H intensity of −518 nT. Three magnetic cloud events with B _s fields of ∼25–40 nT occurred in the storm recovery phase, lengthening the recovery to ∼2.8 days. At geosynchronous orbit, ∼76 keV to ∼1.5 MeV electrons exhibited ∼1–3 orders of magnitude flux decreases following the shock/sheath impingement onto the magnetosphere. The cosmic-ray decreases at Dome C, Antarctica (effective vertical cutoff rigidity
- Published
- 2024
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
5. Forecasting Solar Energetic Particle Events During Solar Cycles 23 and 24 Using Interpretable Machine Learning
- Author
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Spiridon Kasapis, Irina N. Kitiashvili, Paul Kosovich, Alexander G. Kosovichev, Viacheslav M. Sadykov, Patrick O’Keefe, and Vincent Wang
- Subjects
Solar energetic particles ,Solar storm ,Solar particle emission ,Support vector machine ,Regression ,Linear regression ,Astrophysics ,QB460-466 - Abstract
The prediction of solar energetic particle (SEP) events garners increasing interest as space missions extend beyond Earth’s protective magnetosphere. These events, which are, in most cases, products of magnetic-reconnection-driven processes during solar flares or fast coronal-mass-ejection-driven shock waves, pose significant radiation hazards to aviation, space-based electronics, and particularly space exploration. In this work, we utilize the recently developed data set that combines the Solar Dynamics Observatory/Space-weather Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager Active Region Patches and the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory/Space-weather Michelson Doppler Imager Active Region Patches. We employ a suite of machine learning strategies, including support vector machines (SVMs) and regression models, to evaluate the predictive potential of this new data product for a forecast of post-solar flare SEP events. Our study indicates that despite the augmented volume of data, the prediction accuracy reaches 0.7 ± 0.1 (experimental setting), which aligns with but does not exceed these published benchmarks. A linear SVM model with training and testing configurations that mimic an operational setting (positive–negative imbalance) reveals a slight increase (+0.04 ± 0.05) in the accuracy of a 14 hr SEP forecast compared to previous studies. This outcome emphasizes the imperative for more sophisticated, physics-informed models to better understand the underlying processes leading to SEP events.
- Published
- 2024
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
6. Understanding the Effects of Spacecraft Trajectories through Solar Coronal Mass Ejection Flux Ropes Using 3DCOREweb
- Author
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Hannah T. Rüdisser, Andreas J. Weiss, Justin Le Louëdec, Ute V. Amerstorfer, Christian Möstl, Emma E. Davies, and Helmut Lammer
- Subjects
Solar coronal mass ejections ,Solar storm ,Solar wind ,Solar physics ,Solar activity ,Space weather ,Astrophysics ,QB460-466 - Abstract
This study investigates the impact of spacecraft positioning and trajectory on in situ signatures of coronal mass ejections (CMEs). Employing the 3DCORE model, a 3D flux rope model that can generate in situ profiles for any given point in space and time, we conduct forward modeling to analyze such signatures for various latitudinal and longitudinal positions, with respect to the flux rope apex, at 0.8 au. Using this approach, we explore the appearance of the resulting in situ profiles for different flux rope types, with different handedness and inclination angles, for both high- and low-twist CMEs. Our findings reveal that CMEs exhibit distinct differences in signatures between apex hits and flank encounters, with the latter displaying elongated profiles with reduced rotation. Notably, constant, nonrotating in situ signatures are only observed for flank encounters of low-twist CMEs, suggesting the existence of untwisted magnetic field lines within CME legs. Additionally, our study confirms the unambiguous appearance of different flux rope types in in situ signatures in all of the cases, barring some indistinguishable cases, contributing to the broader understanding and interpretation of observational data. Given the model assumptions, this may refute trajectory effects as the cause for mismatching flux rope types as identified in solar signatures. While acknowledging limitations inherent in our model, such as the assumption of constant twist and a nondeformable torus-like shape, we still draw relevant conclusions within the context of the global magnetic field structures of CMEs and the potential for distinguishing flux rope types based on in situ observations.
- Published
- 2024
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
7. Nonparametric Statistics on Magnetic Properties at the Footpoints of Erupting Magnetic Flux Ropes
- Author
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Rui Liu and Wensi Wang
- Subjects
Solar flares ,Solar magnetic fields ,Solar coronal mass ejections ,Solar storm ,Astrophysics ,QB460-466 - Abstract
It is under debate whether the magnetic field in the solar atmosphere carries neutralized electric currents, in particular, whether a magnetic flux rope (MFR), which is considered the core structure of coronal mass ejections, carries neutralized electric currents. Recently Wang et al. (2023) studied magnetic flux and electric current measured at the footpoints of 28 eruptive MFRs from 2010 to 2015. Because of the small sample size, no rigorous statistical analysis has been done. Here, we include nine more events from 2016 to 2023 and perform a series of nonparametric statistical tests at a significance level of 5%. The tests confirm that there exist no significant differences in magnetic properties between conjugated footpoints of the same MFR, which justifies the method of identifying the MFR footpoints through coronal dimming. The tests demonstrate that there exist no significant differences between MFRs with preeruption dimming and those with only posteruption dimming. However, there is a medium level of association between MFRs carrying substantial net current and those producing preeruption dimming, which can be understood by the Lorentz self-force of the current channel. The tests also suggest that in estimating the magnetic twist of MFRs, it is necessary to take into account the spatially inhomogeneous distribution of electric current density and magnetic field.
- Published
- 2024
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
8. Ultra-relativistic Electron Acceleration during High-intensity Long-duration Continuous Auroral Electrojet Activity Events
- Author
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Rajkumar Hajra, Bruce T. Tsurutani, Quanming Lu, Gurbax S. Lakhina, Aimin Du, Ezequiel Echer, Adriane M. S. Franco, Mauricio J. A. Bolzan, and Xinliang Gao
- Subjects
Van Allen radiation belts ,Interplanetary magnetic fields ,Interplanetary medium ,Solar storm ,Solar coronal mass ejections ,Solar activity ,Astrophysics ,QB460-466 - Abstract
Magnetospheric relativistic electrons are accelerated during substorms and strong convection events that occur during high-intensity long-duration continuous auroral electrojet activity (HILDCAA) events, associated with solar wind high-speed streams (coming from coronal holes). From an analysis of ∼2–20 MeV electrons at L ∼ 2–7 measured by the Van Allen Probe satellite, it is shown that ∼3.4–4.1 days long HILDCAA events are characterized by ∼7.2 MeV electron acceleration in the L ∼ 4.0–6.0 region, which occurs ∼2.9–3.4 days after the onset of HILDCAA. The dominant acceleration process is due to wave–particle interactions between magnetospheric electromagnetic chorus waves and substorm-injected ∼100 keV electrons. The longer the HILDCAA and chorus last, the higher the maximum energy of the accelerated relativistic electrons. The acceleration to higher and higher energies is due to a bootstrap mechanism.
- Published
- 2024
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
9. Online Monitoring of Magnetometer Signals for Estimating Induced Electric Fields in Power Systems.
- Author
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Ariannik, Mohamadreza and Rezaei-Zare, Afshin
- Subjects
- *
GEOMAGNETISM , *SIGNAL-to-noise ratio , *MAGNETIC fields , *MAGNETIC field measurements , *SEVERE storms - Abstract
Powerful solar storms emit plasma that may travel towards the earth. Interactions between the plasma and the earth magnetic field cause geomagnetic disturbances (GMDs), which in turn induce quasi-dc voltage along long conductors in power systems. The induced electric field can be calculated by magnetic field data measured by magnetometers at several stations. In this paper, a set of online processing methods are proposed to improve signal to noise ratio (SNR) of the calculated electric field signals. In the first step, magnetic field signals are denoised inside a sliding window by a wavelet transform. The sliding window width is optimized and the introduced transients are compensated. Time derivative of magnetic field signals are estimated by a continuous wavelet transform in the next step, and the size of the sliding window is minimized for optimal computational speed. Ultimately, a method is proposed to further enhance the SNR by updating the previously processed data points. The magnetic and electric field signals obtained by the online and offline processing methods are compared with each other. It is demonstrated that the online processing methods can decrease the noises to a level comparable to that obtained by the offline methods. The results of this study can be implemented to protect key elements of power systems against severe solar storms. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2022
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
10. Magnitude Estimates for the Carrington Flare in 1859 September: As Seen from the Original Records
- Author
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Hisashi Hayakawa, Sabrina Bechet, Frédéric Clette, Hugh S. Hudson, Hiroyuki Maehara, Kosuke Namekata, and Yuta Notsu
- Subjects
Solar flares ,Solar storm ,Sunspots ,Solar active regions ,Solar x-ray flares ,Solar white-light flares ,Astrophysics ,QB460-466 - Abstract
The Carrington flare in 1859 September is a benchmark, as the earliest reported solar flare and as an event with one of the greatest terrestrial impacts. To date, no rigorous estimate of the energy of this flare has been made on the basis of the only direct observation available, its white-light emission. Here, we exploit the historical observations to obtain a magnitude estimate and express it in terms of its GOES soft X-ray class. From Carrington’s original drawings, we estimated the area of the white-light flaring region to be 116 ± 25 msh. Carrington’s account allows us to estimate the flare blackbody brightness temperature as ≈8800–10,900 K, given the most plausible interpretation of the reported flare brightness. This leads to an unprecedented class estimate of ≈X80 (X46–X126), on the modern revised GOES scale (a factor 1.43 higher than the traditional one). This substantially exceeds earlier estimates but is based on an explicit interpretation of Carrington’s description. We also describe an alternative but less plausible estimation of the flare brightness, as adopted previously, to obtain a class estimate of ≈X14 (X9–X19). This now-deprecated scenario gives an estimate similar to that of with those of directly observed modern great flares. Approximations with “equivalent area,” based on the Hinode observations, lead to comparable magnitudes and approve our estimates, though with a larger uncertainty range. We note that our preferred estimate is higher than the currently used value of X64.4 ± 7.2 (revised) based on indirect geomagnetic measurements.
- Published
- 2023
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
11. Recent Results from GRAPES-3 Observatory
- Author
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Mohanty, P. K., Giri, Anjan, editor, and Mohanta, Rukmani, editor
- Published
- 2020
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
12. Long-term cost-effectiveness of interventions for loss of electricity/industry compared to artificial general intelligence safety
- Author
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David Denkenberger, Anders Sandberg, Ross John Tieman, and Joshua M. Pearce
- Subjects
Cost-effectiveness analysis ,Global catastrophic risk ,Existential risk ,Artificial intelligence ,Solar storm ,Nuclear weapons ,Political science ,Social sciences (General) ,H1-99 - Abstract
Abstract Extreme solar storms, high-altitude electromagnetic pulses, and coordinated cyber attacks could disrupt regional/global electricity. Since electricity basically drives industry, industrial civilization could collapse without it. This could cause anthropological civilization (cities) to collapse, from which humanity might not recover, having long-term consequences. Previous work analyzed technical solutions to save nearly everyone despite industrial loss globally, including transition to animals powering farming and transportation. The present work estimates cost-effectiveness for the long-term future with a Monte Carlo (probabilistic) model. Model 1, partly based on a poll of Effective Altruism conference participants, finds a confidence that industrial loss preparation is more cost-effective than artificial general intelligence safety of ~ 88% and ~ 99+% for the 30 millionth dollar spent on industrial loss interventions and the margin now, respectively. Model 2 populated by one of the authors produces ~ 50% and ~ 99% confidence, respectively. These confidences are likely to be reduced by model and theory uncertainty, but the conclusion of industrial loss interventions being more cost-effective was robust to changing the most important 4–7 variables simultaneously to their pessimistic ends. Both cause areas save expected lives cheaply in the present generation and funding to preparation for industrial loss is particularly urgent.
- Published
- 2021
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
13. Deciphering the Pre–solar-storm Features of the 2017 September Storm From Global and Local Dynamics
- Author
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Breno Raphaldini, Mausumi Dikpati, Aimee A. Norton, Andre S. W. Teruya, Scott W. McIntosh, Christopher B. Prior, and David MacTaggart
- Subjects
Solar activity ,Solar flares ,Solar storm ,Solar ARs ,Astrophysics ,QB460-466 - Abstract
We investigate whether global toroid patterns and the local magnetic field topology of solar active region (AR) 12673 together can hindcast the occurrence of the biggest X-flares of solar cycle (SC)-24. Magnetic toroid patterns (narrow latitude belts warped in longitude, in which ARs are tightly bound) derived from the surface distributions of ARs, prior and during AR 12673 emergence, reveal that the portions of the south toroid containing AR 12673 was not tipped away from its north-toroid counterpart at that longitude, unlike the 2003 Halloween storms scenario. During the minimum phase there were too few emergences to determine multimode longitudinal toroid patterns. A new emergence within AR 12673 produced a complex nonpotential structure, which led to the rapid buildup of helicity and winding that triggered the biggest X-flare of SC-24, suggesting that this minimum-phase storm can be anticipated several hours before its occurrence. However, global patterns and local dynamics for a peak-phase storm, such as that from AR 11263, behaved like the 2003 Halloween storms, producing the third biggest X-flare of SC-24. AR 11263 was present at the longitude where the north and south toroids tipped away from each other. While global toroid patterns indicate that prestorm features can be forecast with a lead time of a few months, their application to observational data can be complicated by complex interactions with turbulent flows. Complex nonpotential field structure development hours before the storm are necessary for short-term prediction. We infer that minimum-phase storms cannot be forecast accurately more than a few hours ahead, while flare-prone ARs in the peak phase may be anticipated much earlier, possibly months ahead from global toroid patterns.
- Published
- 2023
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
14. The Crucial Role of Perpendicular Diffusion in the Longitude Distribution of >10 MeV Solar Energetic Protons
- Author
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Yang Wang and Gang Qin
- Subjects
Solar energetic particles ,Interplanetary physics ,Solar particle emission ,Solar storm ,Astrophysics ,QB460-466 - Abstract
Gradual solar proton events are thought to consist of solar components originating near the Sun and interplanetary components associated with interplanetary shocks, and the role of interplanetary shocks is considered to be crucial in supplying particles to regions that are not magnetically connected to the solar source region. We calculate the ratios of the peak intensities for the four energy channels (13–16, 20–25, 32–40, and 40–64 MeV) and compare the ratios observed by multiple spacecraft at different locations. We often find that the ratio of peak intensities observed at different locations in the same event remains almost constant as the energy varies. In other words, the ratio of peak intensities from the different energy channels remains almost constant as the position of the spacecraft changes. The phenomenon implies that in many gradual events, energetic particles observed at different locations are mainly composed of solar components that undergo perpendicular diffusion in both the vicinity of the Sun and the interplanetary space, and that perpendicular diffusion is the main factor enabling energetic particles to be observed in regions without magnetic connection to the solar source region.
- Published
- 2023
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
15. Prediction Capability of Geomagnetic Events from Solar Wind Data Using Neural Networks
- Author
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Daniele Telloni, Maurizio Lo Schiavo, Enrico Magli, Silvano Fineschi, Sabrina Guastavino, Gianalfredo Nicolini, Roberto Susino, Silvio Giordano, Francesco Amadori, Valentina Candiani, Anna Maria Massone, and Michele Piana
- Subjects
Solar coronal mass ejections ,Neural networks ,Heliosphere ,Solar-terrestrial interactions ,Solar wind ,Solar storm ,Astrophysics ,QB460-466 - Abstract
Multiple neural network architectures, with different structural composition and complexity, are implemented in this study with the aim of providing multi-hour-ahead warnings of severe geomagnetic disturbances, based on in situ measurements of the solar wind plasma and magnetic field acquired at the Lagrangian point L1. First, a statistical analysis of the interplanetary data was performed to point out which are the most relevant parameters to be provided as input to the neural networks, and a preprocessing of the data set was implemented to face its heavy imbalance (the Earth’s magnetosphere is in fact mostly at rest). Then, neural networks were tested to evaluate their performance. It turned out that, in a binary classification problem, recurrent approaches are best at predicting critical events both 1 and 8 hr in advance, achieving a balanced accuracy of 94% and 70%, respectively. Finally, in an attempt at multistep prediction of the criticality of future geomagnetic events from 1–8 hr ahead, more complex neural networks, built by merging the different types of basic convolutional and recurrent architectures, have been shown to outperform single-step and state-of-the-art approaches with a balanced accuracy of at least 70%. Interestingly, the accuracy peaks at 4 hr, corresponding to the waiting time between the detection of solar drivers at L1 and the onset of the geomagnetic storm (as previously obtained by statistical investigations), suggesting that on average this is the time the Earth’s magnetosphere takes to react to the solar event.
- Published
- 2023
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
16. Long-term cost-effectiveness of interventions for loss of electricity/industry compared to artificial general intelligence safety.
- Author
-
Denkenberger, David, Sandberg, Anders, Tieman, Ross John, and Pearce, Joshua M.
- Subjects
- *
ARTIFICIAL intelligence , *ELECTRICITY , *ELECTROMAGNETIC pulses , *COST effectiveness , *ELECTRICITY safety , *CYBERTERRORISM - Abstract
Extreme solar storms, high-altitude electromagnetic pulses, and coordinated cyber attacks could disrupt regional/global electricity. Since electricity basically drives industry, industrial civilization could collapse without it. This could cause anthropological civilization (cities) to collapse, from which humanity might not recover, having long-term consequences. Previous work analyzed technical solutions to save nearly everyone despite industrial loss globally, including transition to animals powering farming and transportation. The present work estimates cost-effectiveness for the long-term future with a Monte Carlo (probabilistic) model. Model 1, partly based on a poll of Effective Altruism conference participants, finds a confidence that industrial loss preparation is more cost-effective than artificial general intelligence safety of ~ 88% and ~ 99+% for the 30 millionth dollar spent on industrial loss interventions and the margin now, respectively. Model 2 populated by one of the authors produces ~ 50% and ~ 99% confidence, respectively. These confidences are likely to be reduced by model and theory uncertainty, but the conclusion of industrial loss interventions being more cost-effective was robust to changing the most important 4–7 variables simultaneously to their pessimistic ends. Both cause areas save expected lives cheaply in the present generation and funding to preparation for industrial loss is particularly urgent. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2021
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
17. 'Severe' Geomagnetic Storm Could Trigger Northern Lights In The U.S. Today — Here's What Could Happen.
- Author
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Hart, Robert
- Subjects
AURORAS ,MAGNETIC storms ,SOLAR activity ,CORONAL mass ejections - Abstract
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration issued the rare warning, its first in nearly 20 years, following days of intense solar activity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2024
18. The outpost on Mars
- Author
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Genta, Giancarlo and Genta, Giancarlo
- Published
- 2017
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
19. The Importance of Natural Resources from Space and Key Challenges
- Author
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Jakhu, Ram S., Pelton, Joseph N., Nyampong, Yaw Otu Mankata, Jakhu, Ram S., Pelton, Joseph N., and Nyampong, Yaw Otu Mankata
- Published
- 2017
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
20. A Double Disturbed Lunar Plasma Wake.
- Author
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Rasca, A. P., Fatemi, S., Farrell, W. M., Poppe, A. R., and Zheng, Y.
- Abstract
Under nominal solar wind conditions, a tenuous wake forms downstream of the lunar nightside. However, the lunar plasma environment undergoes a transformation as the Moon passes through the Earth's magnetotail, with hot subsonic plasma causing the wake structure to disappear. We investigate the lunar wake response during a passing coronal mass ejection (CME) on March 8, 2012 while crossing the Earth's magnetotail using both a magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) model of the terrestrial magnetosphere and a three‐dimensional hybrid plasma model of the lunar wake. The CME arrives at 1 AU around 10:30 UT and its impact is first detected inside the geomagnetic tail after 11:10 UT by the Acceleration, Reconnection, Turbulence and Electrodynamics of the Moon's Interaction with the Sun (THEMIS‐ARTEMIS) satellites in lunar orbit. A global magnetospheric MHD simulation using Wind data for upstream conditions with the OpenGGCM model reveals the magnetosheath compression to the lunar position from 11:20–12:00 UT, accompanied by multiple flux rope or plasmoid‐like features developing and propagating tailward. MHD results support plasma changes observed by the THEMIS‐ARTEMIS satellites. Lunar‐scale simulations using the Amitis hybrid code show a short and misaligned plasma wake during the Moon's brief entry into the magnetosheath at 11:20 UT, with plasma expansion into the void being aided by the higher plasma temperatures. Sharply accelerated flow speed and a compressed magnetic field lead to an enhanced electric field in the lunar wake capable of generating sudden changes to the nightside near‐surface electric potential.Key Points: Passing coronal mass ejection (CME) during a Full Moon distorts the magnetopause and magnetosheath, resulting in the Moon's removal from the geomagnetic tailCME arrival results in the redevelopment of a short optically misaligned lunar plasma wakeEvent conditions are favorable for the development of flux‐rope like plasmoids in the magnetotail capable of being detected at the Moon [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2021
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
21. SERIES OF RARE SOLAR STORMS HIT U.S.
- Author
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EJIOCHI, IKE
- Abstract
WHIT JOHNSON (ABC NEWS) (Off-camera) Now to the rare light show in the sky and the potential threat to infrastructure here on Earth. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]
- Published
- 2024
22. NORTHERN LIGHTS OFFER RARE TREAT FOR MILLIONS.
- Author
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LIPOF, PHIL and THEODORE, SOMARA
- Abstract
JANAI NORMAN (ABC NEWS) (Voiceover) Yes. But now, let's go back to Phil Lipof who has been following a rare celestial phenomenon. The northern lights visible to million in the US, and the possible problems they may bring. It's fascinating and the images are unbelievable, Phil. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]
- Published
- 2024
23. A Solar‐Centric Approach to Improving Estimates of Exposure Processes for Coronal Mass Ejections.
- Author
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Kirchen, Kathrin, Harbert, William, Apt, Jay, and Morgan, M. Granger
- Subjects
CORONAL mass ejections ,CUMULATIVE distribution function ,SPACE environment ,POISSON distribution - Abstract
We present a solar‐centric approach to estimating the probability of extreme coronal mass ejections (CME) using the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO)/Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph Experiment (LASCO) CME Catalog observations updated through May 2018 and an updated list of near‐Earth interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICME). We examine robust statistical approaches to the estimation of extreme events. We then assume a variety of time‐independent distributions fitting, and then comparing, the different probability distributions to the relevant regions of the cumulative distributions of the observed CME speeds. Using these results, we then obtain the probability that the velocity of a CME exceeds a particular threshold by extrapolation. We conclude that about 1.72% of the CMEs recorded with SOHO LASCO arrive at the Earth over the time both data sets overlap (November 1996 to September 2017). Then, assuming that 1.72% of all CMEs pass the Earth, we can obtain a first‐order estimate of the probability of an extreme space weather event on Earth. To estimate the probability over the next decade of a CME, we fit a Poisson distribution to the complementary cumulative distribution function. We inferred a decadal probability of between 0.01 and 0.09 for an event of at least the size of the large 2012 event, and a probability between 0.0002 and 0.016 for the size of the 1859 Carrington event. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2020
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
24. Records of Auroras in Arabic Historical Sources: Additional List and Preliminary Analysis.
- Author
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Bekli, Mohamed Reda and Chadou, Ilhem
- Subjects
- *
HISTORICAL source material , *AURORAS , *SOLAR activity , *MAGNETIC storms , *MAGNETIC declination , *EXPLOSIVE volcanic eruptions , *VOLCANIC eruptions - Abstract
Few studies have collected and analyzed the astronomical events recorded in Arabic literature. In this paper, we present some additional events reported in four Arabic historical sources that could be classified as an aurora. These observations occurred from 9th to 20th century and cover a large geographic area: North Africa, Arabian-Peninsula and Middle-East. Some of them were observed at very low geomagnetic latitude, such as the event seen in Yemen in AD 1919 that can be considered as one of the lowest latitude auroras ever documented by Arabic scholars. In the same Yemenite source, the author describes a twilight phenomenon of 1883 October 03–November 01 which can be considered as an atmospheric-optical phenomenon arising from the major explosive eruptions of Krakatoa in 1883 August 26–27. We also noticed that one of the events which was seen for 7 days coincide probably with the prolonged manifestation of auroras of 1870 September 24–25. Including published records, we compiled a so far most complete catalog of potential auroral candidates in the Arabic sources. This data set can be used in order to study the solar activity variations and magnetic storms in the historical past. One of the interesting auroras was seen in Mecca (∼ 17 ∘ MLAT) in 1872 February 04. This event is further evidence for the equatorward extension of auroral display and the planetary consequences of the great geomagnetic storm of 1872. Finally, it should be underlined that no aurora observations were recorded during the Maunder minimum (MM). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2020
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
25. Solar Cycle 24: 15 Nightly Projections
- Author
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Abrahamsson, Malin and Marchese, Francis T., editor
- Published
- 2015
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
26. The Fragile State of Industrial Agriculture: Estimating Crop Yield Reductions in a Global Catastrophic Infrastructure Loss Scenario.
- Author
-
Moersdorf J, Rivers M, Denkenberger D, Breuer L, and Jehn FU
- Abstract
Modern civilization relies on a complex, globally interconnected industrial agriculture system to produce food. Its unprecedented yields hinge on external inputs like machinery, fertilizers, and pesticides, rendering it vulnerable to disruptions in production and international trade. Such a disruption could be caused by large-scale damage to the electrical grid. Solar storms, nuclear detonations in the upper atmosphere, pandemics, or cyber-attacks, could cause this severe damage to electrical infrastructure. To assess the impact of such a global catastrophic infrastructure loss on major food crops (corn, rice, soybean, wheat), we employ a generalized linear model. The predictions show a crop-specific yield reduction between 15% and 37% in phase 1, the year after the catastrophe, assuming rationed use of fertilizers, pesticides, and fuel stocks. In phase 2, when all stocks are depleted, yields decrease by 35%-48%. Soybean is less affected in phase 1, while all crops experience strong declines in phase 2. Europe, North and South America, and parts of India, China, and Indonesia face major yield reductions, potentially up to 75%, while most African countries are less affected. These findings underscore the necessity for preparation by highlighting the vulnerability of the food system., Competing Interests: The authors declare no conflict of interest., (© 2023 The Authors. Global Challenges published by Wiley‐VCH GmbH.)
- Published
- 2023
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
27. Geomagnetically induced currents modelling and monitoring transformer neutral currents in Austria.
- Author
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Halbedl, Thomas, Renner, H., and Achleitner, G.
- Abstract
Transmission system operators are responsible for security and reliability of their grid. An important topic is the analysis of possible risks for the transmission system network.The paper presents actual results about geomagnetically induced currents (GIC) in the Austrian transmission system. Because of problems with unexpected noise at some transformers, investigations were started, which gave an indication that DC could be the source of this noise. Due to the particular geological structure of the country, the influence of GIC in Austria is higher than for the most other countries in Central Europe. A simulation model to compute GIC was set up and compared to the measured DC transformer neutral current. The comparison of the simulated and measured currents shows a good correlation. High geomagnetic disturbances, which lead to high currents according the simulation model, can be confirmed by the measurement. Differences between measurement and simulation can be seen in the region of "fast" fluctuation within seconds. By detailed analysis of the times of occurrence it was shown, that currents from underground railway, which are operating with DC, flow through the transmission grid, too. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2018
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
28. 15 Harden against Space Radiation (Contributed by Dr James K. Woosley)
- Author
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Johnson, Les and Johnson, Les
- Published
- 2013
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
29. The Threat of Space Weather
- Author
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Pelton, Joseph N. and Pelton, Joseph N.
- Published
- 2013
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
30. The Northern Lights and Space Weather
- Author
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Brekke, Pål and Brekke, Pal
- Published
- 2012
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
31. Settling the Solar System
- Author
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Johnson, Les, Matloff, Gregory L., Bangs, C, Johnson, Les, Matloff, Gregory L., and Bangs, C
- Published
- 2010
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
32. Data Assimilation Using the Global Ionosphere-Thermosphere Model
- Author
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Kim, I. S., Chandrasekar, J., Ridley, A., Bernstein, D. S., Hutchison, David, editor, Kanade, Takeo, editor, Kittler, Josef, editor, Kleinberg, Jon M., editor, Mattern, Friedemann, editor, Mitchell, John C., editor, Naor, Moni, editor, Nierstrasz, Oscar, editor, Pandu Rangan, C., editor, Steffen, Bernhard, editor, Sudan, Madhu, editor, Terzopoulos, Demetri, editor, Tygar, Dough, editor, Vardi, Moshe Y., editor, Weikum, Gerhard, editor, Alexandrov, Vassil N., editor, van Albada, Geert Dick, editor, Sloot, Peter M. A., editor, and Dongarra, Jack, editor
- Published
- 2006
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
33. Feeding everyone if the sun is obscured and industry is disabled.
- Author
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Denkenberger, David C., Cole, D. Dorothea, Abdelkhaliq, Mohamed, Griswold, Michael, Hundley, Allen B., and Pearce, Joshua M.
- Abstract
A number of catastrophes could block the sun, including asteroid/comet impact, super volcanic eruption, and nuclear war with the burning of cities (nuclear winter). The problem of feeding 7 billion people would arise (the food problem is more severe than other problems associated with these catastrophes). Previous work has shown this is possible converting stored biomass to food if industry is present. A number of risks could destroy electricity globally, including a series of high-altitude electromagnetic pulses (HEMPs) caused by nuclear weapons, an extreme solar storm, and a super computer virus. Since industry depends on electricity, it is likely there would be a collapse of the functioning of industry and machines. Additional previous work has shown that it is technically feasible to feed everyone given the loss of industry without the loss of the sun. It is possible that one of these sun-blocking scenarios could occur near in time to one of these industry-disabling scenarios. This study analyzes food sources in these combined catastrophe scenarios. Food sources include extracting edible calories from killed leaves, growing mushrooms on leaves and dead trees, and feeding the residue to cellulose-digesting animals such as cattle and rabbits. Since the sun is unlikely to be completely blocked, fishing and growing ultraviolet (UV) and cold-tolerant crops in the tropics could be possible. The results of this study show these solutions could enable the feeding of everyone given minimal preparation, and this preparation should be a high priority now. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2017
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
34. Protection of power transformers against geomagnetically induced currents
- Author
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Gurevich Vladimir
- Subjects
solar storm ,magnetosphere ,geomagnetic induced current ,ionosphere ,transformer saturation ,relay protection ,Electrical engineering. Electronics. Nuclear engineering ,TK1-9971 - Abstract
The article examines the problem of saturation and failure of power transformers under geomagnetically induced currents and currents of the E3 component of high-altitude nuclear explosions. It also describes a special protective relay reacting on DC component in the transformer neutral current.
- Published
- 2011
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
35. Long-term cost-effectiveness of interventions for loss of electricity/industry compared to artificial general intelligence safety
- Author
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Ross John Tieman, Anders Sandberg, David Denkenberger, and Joshua M. Pearce
- Subjects
Artificial intelligence ,Sociology and Political Science ,Cost effectiveness ,020209 energy ,Economics, Econometrics and Finance (miscellaneous) ,0211 other engineering and technologies ,Nuclear weapons ,02 engineering and technology ,Global catastrophic risk ,Solar storm ,Management of Technology and Innovation ,0202 electrical engineering, electronic engineering, information engineering ,Political science ,H1-99 ,Sustainable development ,021110 strategic, defence & security studies ,Existential risk ,business.industry ,Cost-effectiveness analysis ,Environmental economics ,Social sciences (General) ,Work (electrical) ,Artificial general intelligence ,Agriculture ,Tourism, Leisure and Hospitality Management ,Liberian dollar ,Electricity ,Electric power industry ,business ,Social Sciences (miscellaneous) ,Research Article - Abstract
Extreme solar storms, high-altitude electromagnetic pulses, and coordinated cyber attacks could disrupt regional/global electricity. Since electricity basically drives industry, industrial civilization could collapse without it. This could cause anthropological civilization (cities) to collapse, from which humanity might not recover, having long-term consequences. Previous work analyzed technical solutions to save nearly everyone despite industrial loss globally, including transition to animals powering farming and transportation. The present work estimates cost-effectiveness for the long-term future with a Monte Carlo (probabilistic) model. Model 1, partly based on a poll of Effective Altruism conference participants, finds a confidence that industrial loss preparation is more cost-effective than artificial general intelligence safety of ~ 88% and ~ 99+% for the 30 millionth dollar spent on industrial loss interventions and the margin now, respectively. Model 2 populated by one of the authors produces ~ 50% and ~ 99% confidence, respectively. These confidences are likely to be reduced by model and theory uncertainty, but the conclusion of industrial loss interventions being more cost-effective was robust to changing the most important 4–7 variables simultaneously to their pessimistic ends. Both cause areas save expected lives cheaply in the present generation and funding to preparation for industrial loss is particularly urgent.
- Published
- 2021
36. Using solar-sail induced dynamics to increase the warning time for solar storms heading towards earth
- Author
-
Bakx, N.K.M. (author), Heiligers, M.J. (author), Bakx, N.K.M. (author), and Heiligers, M.J. (author)
- Abstract
Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs), commonly referred to as solar storms, that are on an Earth-intersecting trajectory, may lead to the breakdown of power grid transformers, the malfunctioning of Earth-orbiting spacecraft, and disruptions in navigation and communication systems, among many other effects. The financial impact of a solar storm is predicted to be in the order of trillions of euros and the probability of such an event occurring within the next decade is 12%. With society relying ever-more on technology, the impact of a solar storm is ever-increasing. It is therefore essential that operators of vital infrastructure are notified of an approaching storm in a timely manner such that they can take adequate measures to mitigate the impact. This paper investigates the use of solar-sail technology to increase the warning time for CMEs heading towards Earth. The warning time is proportional to the distance from the Earth to the spacecraft detecting the CME: a current warning time of 30 to 60 minutes is achieved by satellites at or near the Sun-Earth L1 point. By considering the actual shape of a CME, the continuous solar-sail acceleration from the solar sail can be used to find a periodic trajectory that travels further upstream of the CME-axis, thereby increasing the warning time with respect to current missions. Finding a periodic solar-sail trajectory can be regarded as an optimal control problem, which requires a near-feasible initial-guess trajectory. The latter is found by generating heteroclinic connections between artificial equilibrium points in the vicinity of the sub-L1 and sub-L5 point through the use of a genetic algorithm. The optimal control problem is solved with a direct pseudospectral method, resulting in four representative trajectories, each having specific (dis)advantages. Ultimately, with near-term solar-sail technology (a lightness number of 0.05), the most optimal trajectory increases the average and maximum warning time by a factor 20 and 30, Astrodynamics & Space Missions
- Published
- 2021
37. Using Solar-sail Induced Dynamics to Increase the Warning Time for Solar Storms Heading Towards Earth
- Author
-
Bakx, Niels (author) and Bakx, Niels (author)
- Abstract
This paper investigates the use of solar-sail technology to increase the warning time for Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) heading towards Earth. In addition, this research will build upon the current understanding of using solar-sail dynamics with regards to CME detection by providing insights into the problem characteristics. The warning time is proportional to the distance from the Earth to the spacecraft detecting the CME: a current warning time of 30 to 60 minutes is achieved by satellites at or near the Sun-Earth L1 point. By considering the actual shape of a CME, the continuous solar-sail acceleration from the solar sail can be used to find a periodic trajectory that travels further upstream of the CME-axis, thereby increasing the warning time with respect to current missions. Finding a periodic solar-sail trajectory can be regarded as an optimal control problem, which requires a near-feasible initial guess trajectory. the latter is found by generating heteroclinic connections between artificial equilibrium points in the vicinity of the sub-L1 and sub-L5 point through the use of a grid search and a genetic algorithm. The optimal control problem is solved with a direct pseudospectral method, resulting in four representative trajectories, each having specific (dis)advantages. The performance impact due to (the uncertainty of) non-ideal sail properties, change in lightness number, and variation in CME size are investigated. Ultimately, the most optimal trajectory increases the average and maximum warning time by a factor 20 and 30 with respect to current missions at L1, respectively, with a 90\% probability that the spacecraft detects the CME., Aerospace Engineering
- Published
- 2021
38. A Double Disturbed Lunar Plasma Wake
- Author
-
Rasca, A.P., Fatemi, Shahab, Farrell, W.M., Poppe, A.R., Zheng, Y., Rasca, A.P., Fatemi, Shahab, Farrell, W.M., Poppe, A.R., and Zheng, Y.
- Abstract
Under nominal solar wind conditions, a tenuous wake forms downstream of the lunar nightside. However, the lunar plasma environment undergoes a transformation as the Moon passes through the Earth's magnetotail, with hot subsonic plasma causing the wake structure to disappear. We investigate the lunar wake response during a passing coronal mass ejection (CME) on March 8, 2012 while crossing the Earth's magnetotail using both a magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) model of the terrestrial magnetosphere and a three-dimensional hybrid plasma model of the lunar wake. The CME arrives at 1 AU around 10:30 UT and its impact is first detected inside the geomagnetic tail after 11:10 UT by the Acceleration, Reconnection, Turbulence and Electrodynamics of the Moon's Interaction with the Sun (THEMIS-ARTEMIS) satellites in lunar orbit. A global magnetospheric MHD simulation using Wind data for upstream conditions with the OpenGGCM model reveals the magnetosheath compression to the lunar position from 11:20–12:00 UT, accompanied by multiple flux rope or plasmoid-like features developing and propagating tailward. MHD results support plasma changes observed by the THEMIS-ARTEMIS satellites. Lunar-scale simulations using the Amitis hybrid code show a short and misaligned plasma wake during the Moon's brief entry into the magnetosheath at 11:20 UT, with plasma expansion into the void being aided by the higher plasma temperatures. Sharply accelerated flow speed and a compressed magnetic field lead to an enhanced electric field in the lunar wake capable of generating sudden changes to the nightside near-surface electric potential.
- Published
- 2021
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
39. Caution light: The Anik E2 solar disruption and its effect on Telesat Canada.
- Author
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Howell, Elizabeth and Whalen, David
- Subjects
- *
BROADCASTING industry , *BROADBAND communication systems , *GEOSTATIONARY satellites - Abstract
Telesat Canada is a satellite communications firm, founded in 1969, that provides global broadcast and broadband services. Its fleet of satellites includes the geostationary Anik line. On January 20, 1994, a major solar storm knocked out communications on two Anik satellites. Anik E1 was recovered through a backup system within hours. However, Anik E2 was non-operational until June 1994, when engineers used an innovative ground fix to regain control. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2015
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
40. Using solar-sail induced dynamics to increase the warning time for solar storms heading towards earth
- Author
-
Bakx, N.K.M. and Heiligers, M.J.
- Subjects
Solar storm ,Trajectory optimisation ,Solar sail ,Pseudospectral collocation - Abstract
Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs), commonly referred to as solar storms, that are on an Earth-intersecting trajectory, may lead to the breakdown of power grid transformers, the malfunctioning of Earth-orbiting spacecraft, and disruptions in navigation and communication systems, among many other effects. The financial impact of a solar storm is predicted to be in the order of trillions of euros and the probability of such an event occurring within the next decade is 12%. With society relying ever-more on technology, the impact of a solar storm is ever-increasing. It is therefore essential that operators of vital infrastructure are notified of an approaching storm in a timely manner such that they can take adequate measures to mitigate the impact. This paper investigates the use of solar-sail technology to increase the warning time for CMEs heading towards Earth. The warning time is proportional to the distance from the Earth to the spacecraft detecting the CME: a current warning time of 30 to 60 minutes is achieved by satellites at or near the Sun-Earth L1 point. By considering the actual shape of a CME, the continuous solar-sail acceleration from the solar sail can be used to find a periodic trajectory that travels further upstream of the CME-axis, thereby increasing the warning time with respect to current missions. Finding a periodic solar-sail trajectory can be regarded as an optimal control problem, which requires a near-feasible initial-guess trajectory. The latter is found by generating heteroclinic connections between artificial equilibrium points in the vicinity of the sub-L1 and sub-L5 point through the use of a genetic algorithm. The optimal control problem is solved with a direct pseudospectral method, resulting in four representative trajectories, each having specific (dis)advantages. Ultimately, with near-term solar-sail technology (a lightness number of 0.05), the most optimal trajectory increases the average and maximum warning time by a factor 20 and 30 with respect to current missions at L1, respectively, with a 90% probability that the spacecraft detects the CME. Finally, the paper investigated a set of sensitivity analyses (non-ideal sail properties and change in lightness number) to successfully prove the robustness of the methodology and the effect of assumptions made.
- Published
- 2021
41. Using solar-sail induced dynamics to increase the warning time for solar storms heading towards earth
- Subjects
Solar storm ,Trajectory optimisation ,Solar sail ,Pseudospectral collocation - Abstract
Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs), commonly referred to as solar storms, that are on an Earth-intersecting trajectory, may lead to the breakdown of power grid transformers, the malfunctioning of Earth-orbiting spacecraft, and disruptions in navigation and communication systems, among many other effects. The financial impact of a solar storm is predicted to be in the order of trillions of euros and the probability of such an event occurring within the next decade is 12%. With society relying ever-more on technology, the impact of a solar storm is ever-increasing. It is therefore essential that operators of vital infrastructure are notified of an approaching storm in a timely manner such that they can take adequate measures to mitigate the impact. This paper investigates the use of solar-sail technology to increase the warning time for CMEs heading towards Earth. The warning time is proportional to the distance from the Earth to the spacecraft detecting the CME: a current warning time of 30 to 60 minutes is achieved by satellites at or near the Sun-Earth L1 point. By considering the actual shape of a CME, the continuous solar-sail acceleration from the solar sail can be used to find a periodic trajectory that travels further upstream of the CME-axis, thereby increasing the warning time with respect to current missions. Finding a periodic solar-sail trajectory can be regarded as an optimal control problem, which requires a near-feasible initial-guess trajectory. The latter is found by generating heteroclinic connections between artificial equilibrium points in the vicinity of the sub-L1 and sub-L5 point through the use of a genetic algorithm. The optimal control problem is solved with a direct pseudospectral method, resulting in four representative trajectories, each having specific (dis)advantages. Ultimately, with near-term solar-sail technology (a lightness number of 0.05), the most optimal trajectory increases the average and maximum warning time by a factor 20 and 30 with respect to current missions at L1, respectively, with a 90% probability that the spacecraft detects the CME. Finally, the paper investigated a set of sensitivity analyses (non-ideal sail properties and change in lightness number) to successfully prove the robustness of the methodology and the effect of assumptions made.
- Published
- 2021
42. Investigation into the rate of changes in Keplerian orbital elements for GPS satellites under solar storming / GPS palydovų orbitų Keplerio elementų kitimo dėl Saulės audrų įtakos analizė
- Author
-
Vilma Zubinaitė and George Preiss
- Subjects
GPS satellite ,Keplerian orbit ,navigation message ,solar activity ,solar storm ,space weather ,Geodesy ,QB275-343 - Abstract
Positioning using a satellite requires defining the instantaneous positions of navigation satellites. The established positions are predicted and transmitted to the users applying satellites, and, however become degraded with accuracy in cases solar events divert the satellites from their path. Meanwhile, getting satellite coordinates with reference to the made predictions involves computing effort. The question addressed in this paper is whether orbit disturbances can be detected by examining these predictions so that computing coordinates are avoided. The paper argues that detection is possible but requires further experiments on confirmation due to the fact there have been relatively few solar storms in recent years while collecting data on satellite tracking. also, the paper also suggests that detection by examining orbital parameters is of a limited practical value when compared with the ease of interpreting satellite coordinates measured in meters. Santrauka Padėtį nustatant globaline padėties nustatymo sistema turi būti žinomos akimirkinės dirbtinių Žemės palydovų padėtys orbitoje, tačiau dėl Saulės reiškinių įtakos dirbtiniai Žemės palydovai nukrypsta nuo jų judėjimo kelio. Išanalizavus teigiama, kad tiriant pasirinktuoju metodu galima nustatyti dirbtinių Žemės palydovų nukrypimus nuo įprastinės orbitos bei numatyti prognozes. Šiems teiginiams patvirtinti būtini tolesni eksperimentai. Резюме Для того, чтобы было известно мгновенное положение искусственных спутников Земли на орбите, требуется определение позиции с помощью системы глобального позиционирования. Однако точность позиций спутников на орбите уменьшается из-за событий на Солнце, вследствие чего искусственные спутники Земли отклоняются от пути их движения. В статье рассматривается вопрос, можно ли обнаружить погрешности на орбите искусственных спутников Земли и предвидеть прогнозы на основании выбранного метода. Утверждается, что изменения обнаружить можно, однако для подтверждения этого требуются дальнейшие эксперименты. Reikšminiai žodžiai: GPS palydovas, Keplerio orbita, navigacinis pranešimas, Saulės aktyvumas, Saulės audra, erdvės oro sąlygos Ключевые слова: искусственный спутник, орбита Кеплера, навигационное сообщение, активность Солнца, солнечная буря, условия воздушного пространства
- Published
- 2012
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
43. Numerical study on the response of the Earth's magnetosphere-ionosphere system to a super solar storm.
- Author
-
Wang, Chi, Li, Hui, Guo, XiaoCheng, Ding, Kai, and Huang, ZhaoHui
- Subjects
- *
SPACE environment , *STORMS , *MAGNETOSPHERE , *IONOSPHERE , *NUMERICAL analysis - Abstract
With the approaching of the 24th solar cycle peak year (2012-2014), the impacts of super solar storms on the geospace environment have drawn attentions. Based on the geomagnetic field observations during Carrington event in 1859, we estimate the interplanetary solar wind conditions at that time, and investigate the response of the magnetosphere-ionosphere system to this extreme solar wind conditions using global 3D MHD simulations. The main findings include: 1) The day-side magnetopause and bow shock are compressed to 4.3 and 6.0 Re (Earth radius), and their flanks are also strongly compressed. The magnetopause shifts inside the geosynchronous orbit, exposing geosynchronous satellites in the solar wind in the magnetosheath. 2) During the storm, the region-1 current increases by about 60 times, and the cross polar potential drop increases by about 80 times; the reconnection voltage is about 5 to 6 times larger than the average storms, which means a larger amount of the solar wind energy enters the magnetosphere, resulting in strong space weather phenomena. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2012
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
44. Global Failure of ICT due to Solar Storm: A Worst Case Scenario Ahead.
- Author
-
Talib, Mohammad and Mogotlhwane, Tiroyamodimo M.
- Subjects
STORMS ,INFORMATION & communication technologies ,ATMOSPHERE ,TECHNOLOGY ,SUN - Abstract
Abstract: Information and communication technologies (ICTs) devices operate within the atmosphere around the earth as part of their global network. They are therefore subjected to all the natural activities that take place in this global space. Solar storm activities continue to increase in intensity and NASA has issued a warning that a powerful solar storm may hit the earth sometime in 2012. This has the potential to lead to ICTs devices not functioning at all if this happens. In this paper a worst case scenario of this storm, if it was to happen, is discussed with its pros and cons. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]
- Published
- 2011
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
45. INVESTIGATION INTO THE RATE OF CHANGES IN KEPLERIAN ORBITAL ELEMENTS FOR GPS SATELLITES UNDER SOLAR STORMING.
- Author
-
Zubinaite, Vilma and Preiss, George
- Subjects
- *
GLOBAL Positioning System , *ARTIFICIAL satellites , *SOLAR activity , *SPACE environment , *SOLAR flares , *ARTIFICIAL satellite tracking - Abstract
Positioning using a satellite requires defining the instantaneous positions of navigation satellites. The established positions are predicted and transmitted to the users applying satellites, and, however become degraded with accuracy in cases solar events divert the satellites from their path. Meanwhile, getting satellite coordinates with reference to the made predictions involves computing effort. The question addressed in this paper is whether orbit disturbances can be detected by examining these predictions so that computing coordinates are avoided. The paper argues that detection is possible but requires further experiments on confirmation due to the fact there have been relatively few solar storms in recent years while collecting data on satellite tracking. Also, the paper also suggests that detection by examining orbital parameters is of a limited practical value when compared with the ease of interpreting satellite coordinates measured in meters. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2011
46. Solar storms may trigger sperm whale strandings: explanation approaches for multiple strandings in the North Sea in 2016
- Author
-
Sven Jacobsen, Chris Hall, Klaus Heinrich Vanselow, and Stefan Garthe
- Subjects
0106 biological sciences ,010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences ,Physics and Astronomy (miscellaneous) ,solar storm ,migration ,010603 evolutionary biology ,01 natural sciences ,Latitude ,geomagnetic anomaly ,Animal migration ,Sperm whale ,Earth and Planetary Sciences (miscellaneous) ,Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics ,0105 earth and related environmental sciences ,Solar storm of 1859 ,Geomagnetic storm ,biology ,Lead (sea ice) ,Storm ,biology.organism_classification ,sperm whale stranding ,Oceanography ,Earth's magnetic field ,Space and Planetary Science ,SAR-Signalverarbeitung ,North Sea ,Geology - Abstract
The Earth's atmosphere and the Earth's magnetic field protects local life by shielding us against Solar particle flows, just like the sun's magnetic field deflects cosmic particle radiation. Generally, magnetic fields can affect terrestrial life such as migrating animals. Thus, terrestrial life is connected to astronomical interrelations between different magnetic fields, particle flows and radiation. Mass strandings of whales have often been documented, but their causes and underlying mechanisms remain unclear. We investigated the possible reasons for this phenomenon based on a series of strandings of 29 male, mostly bachelor, sperm whales (Physeter macrocephalus) in the southern North Sea in early 2016. Whales’ magnetic sense may play an important role in orientation and migration, and strandings may thus be triggered by geomagnetic storms. This approach is supported by the following: (1) disruptions of the Earth's magnetic field by Solar storms can last about 1 day and lead to short-term magnetic latitude changes corresponding to shifts of up to 460 km; (2) many of these disruptions are of a similar magnitude to more permanent geomagnetic anomalies; (3) geomagnetic anomalies in the area north of the North Sea are 50–150 km in diameter; and (4) sperm whales swim about 100 km day−1, and may thus be unable to distinguish between these phenomena. Sperm whales spend their early, non-breeding years in lower latitudes, where magnetic disruptions by the sun are weak and thus lack experience of this phenomenon. ‘Naïve’ whales may therefore become disoriented in the southern Norwegian Sea as a result of failing to adopt alternative navigation systems in time and becoming stranded in the shallow North Sea.
- Published
- 2017
47. Prediction method for October 2003 solar storm.
- Author
-
Xie, Yanqiong, Wei, Fengsi, Feng, Xueshang, and Zhong, Dingkun
- Abstract
Aiming at two intense shock events on October 28 and 29, 2003, this paper presents a two-step method, which combines synoptic analysis of space weather — “observing” and quantitative prediction — “palpating”, and then uses it to test predictions. In the first step of “observing”, on the basis of observations of the solar source surface magnetic field, interplanetary scintillation (IPS) and ACE spacecraft, we find that the propagation of the shocks is asymmetric relative to the normal direction of their solar sources, and the Earth is located near the direction of the fastest speed and the greatest energy of the shocks. As the two fast ejection shock events, the fast explosion of coronal mass of the extremely high temperature, the strong magnetic field, and the high speed background solar wind are also helpful to their rapid propagation. In the second step of “palpating”, we adopt a new membership function of the fast shock events for the ISF method. The predicted results show that for the onset time of the geomagnetic disturbance, the relative errors between the observational and the predicted results are 1.8% and 6.7%; and for the magnetic disturbance magnitude, the relative errors are 4.1% and 3.1%, respectively. Furthermore, the comparison among the predicted results of our two-step method with those of five other prevailing methods shows that the two-step method is advantageous. The results tell us that understanding the physical features of shock propagation thoroughly is of great importance in improving the prediction precision. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2006
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
48. TEPC reference measurements at aircraft altitudes during a solar storm
- Author
-
Beck, P., Latocha, M., Rollet, S., and Stehno, G.
- Subjects
- *
SOLAR active regions , *SOLAR activity , *SOLAR radiation , *UPPER atmosphere - Abstract
Abstract: The Sun goes through cycles of high and low activity that repeats approximately every 11 years. The solar activity is correlated to the number of dark spots on the Sun which are sources of sudden, sporadic eruptions, releasing energetic particles into space. This can directly affect the ionosphere and radio communications around the Earth. A spectacular and unusually high sunspot activity occurred during October and November 2003, commonly referred to as the Halloween Storms. The increased radiation exposure at aircraft altitudes during such an event is of major concern to international aviation organizations, airlines, governmental authorities and aircraft crew as well as flight passengers. Here, we report radiation exposure measurements made by ARC Seibersdorf research (ARCS) onboard commercial aircraft using a tissue equivalent proportional counter (TEPC). A unique set of long-term measurements was collected before, during and after the storm at flight altitudes. The results of these investigations give an understanding of the combined effects of magnetic field disturbances and solar particle fluence due to a solar storm, showing a 70% variation in the radiation exposure at typical flight altitudes. Whilst several predictive codes exist the radiation exposure to aircrew during a solar storm is difficult to predict by calculation models. These calculation models are still struggling with the high uncertainty of spectral input data provided by satellites during a solar storm. A reliable dose assessment concept to assess the radiation exposure to aircrew caused by a solar storm using a network of dosimeter instruments on-board several aircraft can be achieved. Such a proposal has been already introduced by experts of the European Radiation Dosimetry Group (EURADOS). [Copyright &y& Elsevier]
- Published
- 2005
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
49. Feeding everyone if the sun is obscured and industry is disabled
- Author
-
D. Dorothea Cole, Mohamed Abdelkhaliq, Michael Griswold, David Denkenberger, Allen B. Hundley, Joshua M. Pearce, Michigan Tech Open Sustainability Laboratory, and Michigan Technological University (MTU)
- Subjects
Catastrophic risk ,Engineering ,010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences ,Natural resource economics ,[SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes ,solar storm ,electromagnetic pulse ,Electromagnetic pulse ,010501 environmental sciences ,Nuclear weapon ,01 natural sciences ,7. Clean energy ,existential risk ,Global catastrophic risk ,Solar storm ,[SDV.IDA]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Food engineering ,Dead tree ,0105 earth and related environmental sciences ,cyber attack ,Solar storm of 1859 ,Biomass (ecology) ,global catastrophic risk ,Existential risk ,business.industry ,Ecology ,Geology ,Cyber attack ,Geotechnical Engineering and Engineering Geology ,Nuclear winter ,Work (electrical) ,13. Climate action ,nuclear war ,Nuclear war ,Electricity ,business ,Safety Research ,[SDV.AEN]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Food and Nutrition - Abstract
International audience; A number of catastrophes could block the sun, including asteroid/comet impact, super volcanic eruption, and nuclear war with the burning of cities (nuclear winter). The problem of feeding 7 billion people would arise (the food problem is more severe than other problems associated with these catastrophes). Previous work has shown this is possible converting stored biomass to food if industry is present. A number of risks could destroy electricity globally, including a series of high-altitude electromagnetic pulses (HEMPs) caused by nuclear weapons, an extreme solar storm, and a super computer virus. Since industry depends on electricity, it is likely there would be a collapse of the functioning of industry and machines. Additional previous work has shown that it is technically feasible to feed everyone given the loss of industry without the loss of the sun. It is possible that one of these sun-blocking scenarios could occur near in time to one of these industry-disabling scenarios. This study analyzes food sources in these combined catastrophe scenarios. Food sources include extracting edible calories from killed leaves, growing mushrooms on leaves and dead trees, and feeding the residue to cellulose-digesting animals such as cattle and rabbits. Since the sun is unlikely to be completely blocked, fishing and growing ultraviolet (UV) and cold-tolerant crops in the tropics could be possible. The results of this study show these solutions could enable the feeding of everyone given minimal preparation, and this preparation should be a high priority now.
- Published
- 2017
50. Providing Non-food Needs if Industry is Disabled
- Author
-
Abdelkhaliq, Mohamed, Denkenberger, David, Griswold, Michael, Cole, D, Pearce, Joshua, Michigan Tech Open Sustainability Laboratory, Michigan Technological University (MTU), and Pearce, Joshua
- Subjects
[SDV.EE]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Ecology, environment ,[SDV.MHEP] Life Sciences [q-bio]/Human health and pathology ,industry ,global catastrophic risk ,Existential risk ,[SDV]Life Sciences [q-bio] ,high-altitude electromagnetic pulse ,solar storm ,existential risk ,[SDV] Life Sciences [q-bio] ,Global catastrophic risk ,Solar storm ,[SDV.EE] Life Sciences [q-bio]/Ecology, environment ,computer virus ,Electricity ,Industry ,electricity ,Computer virus ,[SDV.MHEP]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Human health and pathology ,High-altitude electromagnetic pulse - Abstract
International audience; A number of risks could cause global electrical failure, including a series of high-altitude electromagnetic pulses (HEMPs) caused by nuclear weapons, an extreme solar storm, and a coordinated computer virus attack. Since modern industry depends on electricity, it is likely that much industry and machines would grind to a halt. The most challenging need to be met in these scenarios is likely to be food, and this is analyzed elsewhere in this conference. However, without industry, food cannot easily be shipped around the world, so one method to maintain the human population without electricity in an emergency is relocating people to the food sources. We find that this is possible even in the worst-case scenario by retrofitting ships to be wind powered. We also discuss solutions for non-industry inland transportation, water supply and treatment, and heating of buildings. We find that the nonfood needs could be met for nearly everyone in the short and medium term.
- Published
- 2016
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