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PLoM (Probabilistic Learning on Manifolds) is a method introduced in 2016 for handling small training datasets by projecting an It\^o equation from a stochastic dissipative Hamiltonian dynamical system, acting as the MCMC generator, for which the KDE-estimated probability measure with the training dataset is the invariant measure. PLoM performs a projection on a reduced-order vector basis related to the training dataset, using the diffusion maps (DMAPS) basis constructed with a time-independent isotropic kernel. In this paper, we propose a new ISDE projection vector basis built from a transient anisotropic kernel, providing an alternative to the DMAPS basis to improve statistical surrogates for stochastic manifolds with heterogeneous data. The construction ensures that for times near the initial time, the DMAPS basis coincides with the transient basis. For larger times, the differences between the two bases are characterized by the angle of their spanned vector subspaces. The optimal instant yielding the optimal transient basis is determined using an estimation of mutual information from Information Theory, which is normalized by the entropy estimation to account for the effects of the number of realizations used in the estimations. Consequently, this new vector basis better represents statistical dependencies in the learned probability measure for any dimension. Three applications with varying levels of statistical complexity and data heterogeneity validate the proposed theory, showing that the transient anisotropic kernel improves the learned probability measure., Comment: 44 pages, 14 figures

This paper deals with the taking into account a given set of realizations as constraints in the Kullback-Leibler minimum principle, which is used as a probabilistic learning algorithm. This permits the effective integration of data into predictive models. We consider the probabilistic learning of a random vector that is made up of either a quantity of interest (unsupervised case) or the couple of the quantity of interest and a control parameter (supervised case). A training set of independent realizations of this random vector is assumed to be given and to be generated with a prior probability measure that is unknown. A target set of realizations of the QoI is available for the two considered cases. The framework is the one of non-Gaussian problems in high dimension. A functional approach is developed on the basis of a weak formulation of the Fourier transform of probability measures (characteristic functions). The construction makes it possible to take into account the target set of realizations of the QoI in the Kullback-Leibler minimum principle. The proposed approach allows for estimating the posterior probability measure of the QoI (unsupervised case) or of the posterior joint probability measure of the QoI with the control parameter (supervised case). The existence and the uniqueness of the posterior probability measure is analyzed for the two cases. The numerical aspects are detailed in order to facilitate the implementation of the proposed method. The presented application in high dimension demonstrates the efficiency and the robustness of the proposed algorithm., Comment: 30 pages, 10 figures

In a first part, we present a mathematical analysis of a general methodology of a probabilistic learning inference that allows for estimating a posterior probability model for a stochastic boundary value problem from a prior probability model. The given targets are statistical moments for which the underlying realizations are not available. Under these conditions, the Kullback-Leibler divergence minimum principle is used for estimating the posterior probability measure. A statistical surrogate model of the implicit mapping, which represents the constraints, is introduced. The MCMC generator and the necessary numerical elements are given to facilitate the implementation of the methodology in a parallel computing framework. In a second part, an application is presented to illustrate the proposed theory and is also, as such, a contribution to the three-dimensional stochastic homogenization of heterogeneous linear elastic media in the case of a non-separation of the microscale and macroscale. For the construction of the posterior probability measure by using the probabilistic learning inference, in addition to the constraints defined by given statistical moments of the random effective elasticity tensor, the second-order moment of the random normalized residue of the stochastic partial differential equation has been added as a constraint. This constraint guarantees that the algorithm seeks to bring the statistical moments closer to their targets while preserving a small residue., Comment: 30 pages, 6 figures

This paper present a construction and the analysis of a class of non-Gaussian positive-definite matrix-valued homogeneous random fields with uncertain spectral measure for stochastic elliptic operators. Then the stochastic elliptic boundary value problem in a bounded domain of the 3D-space is introduced and analyzed for stochastic homogenization.

This work intends to analyze the nonlinear stochastic dynamics of drillstrings in horizontal configuration. For this purpose, it considers a beam theory, with effects of rotatory inertia and shear deformation, which is capable of reproducing the large displacements that the beam undergoes. The friction and shock effects, due to beam/borehole wall transversal impacts, as well as the force and torque induced by bit-rock interaction, are also considered in the model. Uncertainties of bit-rock interaction model are taken into account using a parametric probabilistic approach. Numerical simulations have shown that the mechanical system of interest has a very rich nonlinear stochastic dynamics, which generate phenomena such as bit-bounce, stick-slip, and transverse impacts. A study aiming to maximize the drilling process efficiency, varying drillstring velocities of translation and rotation is presented. Also, the work presents the definition and solution of two optimizations problems, one deterministic and one robust, where the objective is to maximize drillstring rate of penetration into the soil respecting its structural limits.

The probabilistic learning on manifolds (PLoM) introduced in 2016 has solved difficult supervised problems for the ``small data'' limit where the number N of points in the training set is small. Many extensions have since been proposed, making it possible to deal with increasingly complex cases. However, the performance limit has been observed and explained for applications for which $N$ is very small (50 for example) and for which the dimension of the diffusion-map basis is close to $N$. For these cases, we propose a novel extension based on the introduction of a partition in independent random vectors. We take advantage of this novel development to present improvements of the PLoM such as a simplified algorithm for constructing the diffusion-map basis and a new mathematical result for quantifying the concentration of the probability measure in terms of a probability upper bound. The analysis of the efficiency of this novel extension is presented through two applications., Comment: 20 pages, 13 figures, preprint

A novel extension of the Probabilistic Learning on Manifolds (PLoM) is presented. It makes it possible to synthesize solutions to a wide range of nonlinear stochastic boundary value problems described by partial differential equations (PDEs) for which a stochastic computational model (SCM) is available and depends on a vector-valued random control parameter. The cost of a single numerical evaluation of this SCM is assumed to be such that only a limited number of points can be computed for constructing the training dataset (small data). Each point of the training dataset is made up realizations from a vector-valued stochastic process (the stochastic solution) and the associated random control parameter on which it depends. The presented PLoM constrained by PDE allows for generating a large number of learned realizations of the stochastic process and its corresponding random control parameter. These learned realizations are generated so as to minimize the vector-valued random residual of the PDE in the mean-square sense. Appropriate novel methods are developed to solve this challenging problem. Three applications are presented. The first one is a simple uncertain nonlinear dynamical system with a nonstationary stochastic excitation. The second one concerns the 2D nonlinear unsteady Navier-Stokes equations for incompressible flows in which the Reynolds number is the random control parameter. The last one deals with the nonlinear dynamics of a 3D elastic structure with uncertainties. The results obtained make it possible to validate the PLoM constrained by stochastic PDE but also provide further validation of the PLoM without constraint.

This paper presents mathematical results in support of the methodology of the probabilistic learning on manifolds (PLoM) recently introduced by the authors, which has been used with success for analyzing complex engineering systems. The PLoM considers a given initial dataset constituted of a small number of points given in an Euclidean space, which are interpreted as independent realizations of a vector-valued random variable for which its non-Gaussian probability measure is unknown but is, \textit{a priori}, concentrated in an unknown subset of the Euclidean space. The objective is to construct a learned dataset constituted of additional realizations that allow the evaluation of converged statistics. A transport of the probability measure estimated with the initial dataset is done through a linear transformation constructed using a reduced-order diffusion-maps basis. In this paper, it is proven that this transported measure is a marginal distribution of the invariant measure of a reduced-order It\^o stochastic differential equation that corresponds to a dissipative Hamiltonian dynamical system. This construction allows for preserving the concentration of the probability measure. This property is shown by analyzing a distance between the random matrix constructed with the PLoM and the matrix representing the initial dataset, as a function of the dimension of the basis. It is further proven that this distance has a minimum for a dimension of the reduced-order diffusion-maps basis that is strictly smaller than the number of points in the initial dataset. Finally, a brief numerical application illustrates the mathematical results., Comment: 41 pages, 4 figures

This paper tackles the challenge presented by small-data to the task of Bayesian inference. A novel methodology, based on manifold learning and manifold sampling, is proposed for solving this computational statistics problem under the following assumptions: 1) neither the prior model nor the likelihood function are Gaussian and neither can be approximated by a Gaussian measure; 2) the number of functional input (system parameters) and functional output (quantity of interest) can be large; 3) the number of available realizations of the prior model is small, leading to the small-data challenge typically associated with expensive numerical simulations; the number of experimental realizations is also small; 4) the number of the posterior realizations required for decision is much larger than the available initial dataset. The method and its mathematical aspects are detailed. Three applications are presented for validation: The first two involve mathematical constructions aimed to develop intuition around the method and to explore its performance. The third example aims to demonstrate the operational value of the method using a more complex application related to the statistical inverse identification of the non-Gaussian matrix-valued random elasticity field of a damaged biological tissue (osteoporosis in a cortical bone) using ultrasonic waves.

A new methodology is proposed for generating realizations of a random vector with values in a finite-dimensional Euclidean space that are statistically consistent with a data set of observations of this vector. The probability distribution of this random vector, while a-priori not known, is presumed to be concentrated on an unknown subset of the Euclidean space. A random matrix is introduced whose columns are independent copies of the random vector and for which the number of columns is the number of data points in the data set. The approach is based on the use of (i) the multidimensional kernel-density estimation method for estimating the probability distribution of the random matrix, (ii) a MCMC method for generating realizations for the random matrix, (iii) the diffusion-maps approach for discovering and characterizing the geometry and the structure of the data set, and (iv) a reduced-order representation of the random matrix, which is constructed using the diffusion-maps vectors associated with the first eigenvalues of the transition matrix relative to the given data set. The convergence aspects of the proposed methodology are analyzed and a numerical validation is explored through three applications of increasing complexity. The proposed method is found to be robust to noise levels and data complexity as well as to the intrinsic dimension of data and the size of experimental data sets. Both the methodology and the underlying mathematical framework presented in this paper contribute new capabilities and perspectives at the interface of uncertainty quantification, statistical data analysis, stochastic modeling and associated statistical inverse problems., Comment: Submitted to Journal of Computational Physics on September 27, 2015

This paper presents new results allowing an unknown non-Gaussian positive matrix-valued random field to be identified through a stochastic elliptic boundary value problem, solving a statistical inverse problem. A new general class of non-Gaussian positive-definite matrix-valued random fields, adapted to the statistical inverse problems in high stochastic dimension for their experimental identification, is introduced and its properties are analyzed. A minimal parametrization of discretized random fields belonging to this general class is proposed. Using this parametrization of the general class, a complete identification procedure is proposed. New results of the mathematical and numerical analyzes of the parameterized stochastic elliptic boundary value problem are presented. The numerical solution of this parametric stochastic problem provides an explicit approximation of the application that maps the parameterized general class of random fields to the corresponding set of random solutions. This approximation can be used during the identification procedure in order to avoid the solution of multiple forward stochastic problems. Since the proposed general class of random fields possibly contains random fields which are not uniformly bounded, a particular mathematical analysis is developed and dedicated approximation methods are introduced. In order to obtain an algorithm for constructing the approximation of a very high-dimensional map, complexity reduction methods are introduced and are based on the use of low-rank approximation methods that exploit the tensor structure of the solution which results from the parametrization of the general class of random fields., Comment: European Journal of Applied Mathematics, 2014