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The integration of remote sensing and socio-economic data is crucial for policy making in regions suffering from water scarcity and climate change. We present a framework that combines remotely sensed estimates of biomass and water use from FAO’s Water Productivity Open-access portal (WaPOR) (V2) with an ensemble of calibrated mathematical programming models to assess the impact of water reallocations on rain-fed and irrigated land use and production in water-stressed basins. We evaluated our model in the Upper Litani Basin of Lebanon using two water reallocation policies: (i) quotas that progressively reduces water allocation for irrigation up to 100%, at 1% intervals and (ii) a pricing policy that increases the agricultural water price up to 0.25 USD/m3, at 0.0025 USD/m3 intervals. Our results reveal that 1) the impacts of water availability reductions due to quotas on profit and employment are less-than-proportional when water allocation is reduced by 50%; 2) irrigators responses to prices are inelastic until a price increase of 0.03 USD/m3, become significantly more elastic afterwards, and again become inelastic above a price increase of 0.06 USD/m3; 3) higher water prices progressively reduce profit and labor, significantly reduce water use over the elastic interval (where irrigators cultivating low value-added crops shift to rainfed agriculture), and increase tariff revenue during the inelastic interval (where irrigators largely stick to their crop portfolios and pay the higher water prices). Our results reveal nontrivial uncertainties and tipping points, thus highlighting the value of combining reliable water use data with multi-model and multi-scenario ensembles in informing robust policies.

A new way of developing a mathematical model of the dynamics of the factors forming the considered social, political, economic, ecological or other space of life activity of society, depending on local changes in parameters affecting these factors, is presented. A feature of the proposed approach is the use of a matrix of marginal values included in the study that make up the Jacobi matrix of noted factors. The dependence of the factors describing the socio-economic system on the parameters of the model is obtained in explicit form. Under certain conditions, the described relations have the form of mappings close to extension. A generalized assessment of these transformations is proposed. Accounting for this assessment is important for preventing crisis phenomena. The model is intended to be used for informational, forecasting, management and governance purposes in the presence of a sufficient digitalization’s degree of public structures, without which it is problematic to receive and transmit data for building the model, and perform related calculations.

The integration of remote sensing and socio-economic data is crucial for policy making in regions suffering from water scarcity and climate change. We present a framework that combines remotely sensed estimates of biomass and water use from FAO's Water Productivity Open-access portal (WaPOR) (V2) with an ensemble of calibrated mathematical programming models to assess the impact of water reallocations on rain-fed and irrigated land use and production in water-stressed basins. We evaluated our model in the Upper Litani Basin of Lebanon using two water reallocation policies: (i) quotas that progressively reduces water allocation for irrigation up to 100%, at 1% intervals and (ii) a pricing policy that increases the agricultural water price up to 0.25 USD/m3, at 0.0025 USD/m3 intervals. Our results reveal that 1) the impacts of water availability reductions due to quotas on profit and employment are less-than-proportional when water allocation is reduced by <50%, but abruptly increase when water allocation is reduced by >50%; 2) irrigators responses to prices are inelastic until a price increase of 0.03 USD/m3, become significantly more elastic afterwards, and again become inelastic above a price increase of 0.06 USD/m3; 3) higher water prices progressively reduce profit and labor, significantly reduce water use over the elastic interval (where irrigators cultivating low value-added crops shift to rainfed agriculture), and increase tariff revenue during the inelastic interval (where irrigators largely stick to their crop portfolios and pay the higher water prices). Our results reveal nontrivial uncertainties and tipping points, thus highlighting the value of combining reliable water use data with multi-model and multi-scenario ensembles in informing robust policies. • Remotely sensed and socio-economic data are combined via a multi-model ensemble. • Impact of policy and climate change scenarios on irrigator's decisions is simulated. • 50% or more water reduction decreases high-value crop area and profit significantly. • Litani Basin water pricing cuts water use and shifts resources to high value crops. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article deals with the factors that ensure the sustainability of the reproduction of the British socio-economic model in the long term. Some features of the conceptual role of the UK in the formation of the global world order were studied. The impact of the COVID-19 on the economy of the United Kingdom was shown and the reasons for the deepest decline in production in the history of the country were summarized. The factors of chronic decline in productivity on the British labor market and strategic approaches to solving this problem were presented. Some provisions of the Trade and Cooperation Agreement between the UK and the European Union are discussed. The concept of sovereign money is analyzed as a possible response of British economic experts to the challenges of modern crises. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We propose and investigate general kinetic models with transition probabilities that can describe the simultaneous change of multiple microscopic states of the interacting agents. These models can be applied to many problems in socio-economic sciences, where individuals may change both their compartment and their characteristic microscopic variable, as for instance kinetic models for epidemic diffusion or for international trade with possible transfers of agents. Mathematical properties of the kinetic model are proved, as existence and uniqueness of a solution for the Cauchy problem in suitable Wasserstein spaces. The quasi-invariant asymptotic regime, leading to simpler kinetic Fokker–Planck-type equations, is investigated and commented on in comparison with other existing models. Some numerical tests are performed in order to show the time evolution of distribution functions and of meaningful macroscopic fields, even in case of non-constant interaction rates and transfer probabilities. • Kinetic description of simultaneous change of multiple microscopic states. • Transfers and exchanges can be described as a result of a single binary interaction. • Simmetry and reversibility are lost in a given binary interaction. • Diffusion can be included also in presence of both transfers and exchanges. • Pareto Index of interacting populations depends on trading and migration propensity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Integrated watershed management is considered as a new principle for development planning and management of water and soil resources emphasizing on socio-economic characteristics of the region to sustainable livelihoods without vulnerability for plants and the residents of an area. This research, in line with the objectives of integrated management, has been carried out for modelling and evaluating the effects of ecological, socio-economic consequences resulting from the implementation of the proposed management plans on the vegetation changes with a focus on the problems in Simindasht catchment, located in Semnan and Tehran Provinces. After standardization of indices by distance method and weighing them, the scenarios were prioritized using multi-criteria decision-making technique. Trade-off analysis of the results indicates that in the integrated management of Simindasht catchment more than one single management solution, covering all aspects of the system can be recommended in different weighting approaches. The approach used herein, considering the results of different models and comparing the results, is an efficient tool to represent the watershed system as a whole and to facilitate decision making for integrated watershed management.

In this paper, we formulate a maximum entropy framework for a two-parameter Rank-Order (RO) distribution, namely the discrete generalized beta distribution (DGBD), which has recently been observed to be extremely useful in modeling several rank-size distributions from different context in Arts and Sciences , as a two-parameter generalization of Zipf's law. Although it has been seen to provide excellent fits for several real world empirical datasets, the underlying theory responsible for the success of this particular rank order distribution is not explored properly. Here we, for the first time, provide its generating process which describes it as a natural maximum entropy distribution under an appropriate bivariate utility constraint. Further, we have shown that the maximum entropy principle used in estimating probabilistic models from appropriate constraints, via the RO distribution, is also the underlying basis of many socio-economic models. We have demonstrated its acceptability in modeling of different types of socio-economic factors within a country as well as across the countries. The values of distributional parameters estimated through a rigorous statistical estimation method, along with the e n t r o p y values, are used to characterize the distributions of all these socio-economic factors over the years. • We provide generating process of the rank-order DGB distribution as a natural MaxEnt distribution. • With rigorous statistical methods, entropy analysis is done for various socio-economic factors. • Entropy formulation pertaining to the agricultural land data indicated world food crisis in 2007. • Rigorous entropy analysis for a long period of time give hints to the economic crisis in 2007–2010. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]