Search

The Working Group on Multispecies Assessment Methods (WGSAM) aims to advance the operational use of knowledge on predator-prey interactions for advice on fisheries and ecosystem management. This report summarises the achievements of a 3-year cycle during which the group consolidated criteria to evaluate key-runs and more in general the skills assessment of multispecies models, released key-runs for the Baltic Sea, North Sea and Irish Sea all evaluated with those criteria, progressed in the areas of multiple models comparison, ensemble modelling and on the estimation of biological reference points in the context of multispecies interactions. The updated keyruns for the North Sea and the Baltic Sea provided the best available estimates of predation mortality for a number of key commercial stocks in these two ecoregions which have been already integrated into the stock assessments throughout benchmarks and inter-benchmarks. Analyses accumulate showing that ignoring strong trophic interactions may lead to bias in the perception of stocks status and in the calculation of reference points. Evaluations show advantages of using multi-model ensembles to capture the dynamics of the main stocks and the system overall. Results accumulated so far suggest that the benefits of ensemble modelling exist for both simple models, i.e. multispecies production models, as well as more complex ecosystem models. Various approaches are available to the practice of ensemble modelling, including a fully Bayesian ensemble framework suitable also for multi-model forecasts. The report includes also progresses with software developments to enhance accessibility of some complex routines, including ensemble modelling beyond “just a simple average approach” and computation of multispecies reference points, to a broader group of modellers and users. The group sees these developments as a great opportunity to work more towards cross-platform comparisons and further on multispecies skill assessment which will remain important themes for continuation of the work. To further progress the use of multispecies and ecosystem models, collection of ecosystem data remains highly relevant, with priority on stomach data and other information on processes affecting trophic interactions and trophodynamics of ecosystems (i.e., predator-prey overlap, temperature-dependent consumption, availability of other food).

Background: Musculoskeletal injury is a significant threat to readiness in the US Army. Current injury surveillance methods are constrained by accurate injury reporting. Input into electronic medical records or databases therefore may not accurately reflect injury incidence. The purpose of this study was to evaluate injury reporting among active-duty US Army soldiers to explore potential limitations of surveillance approaches. Hypothesis: A significant number of injuries go unreported to medical personnel. Study Design: Cross-sectional study. Level of Evidence: Level 4. Methods: Surveys were completed by soldiers assigned to an Army Infantry Brigade Combat Team. Survey questions inquired about injuries sustained in the previous 12 months, injury onset, and whether injuries were reported to a medical provider. Participants were asked to rank reasons for accurately reporting, underreporting, and/or exaggerating injuries. Chi-square analyses were used to compare differences among underreported injuries in terms of injury onset (gradual vs acute) and sex. Results: A total of 1388 soldiers reported 3202 injuries that had occurred in the previous 12-month period, including 1636 (51%) that were reported and 1566 (49%) that were identified as not reported to medical personnel. More than 49% of reported injuries were described as acute and 51% were described as chronic. Injury exaggeration was reported by 6% of soldiers. The most common reasons for not reporting injuries were fear that an injury might affect future career opportunities and avoidance of military “profiles” (mandated physical restrictions). Conclusion: Approximately half of musculoskeletal injuries in a Brigade Combat Team were not reported. Clinical Relevance: Unreported and untreated injuries can lead to reinjury, chronic pain, performance decrements, and increased costs associated with disability benefits. Additionally, unreported injuries can undermine injury surveillance efforts aimed at reducing the musculoskeletal injury problem in the military.

This document explores the relationships between science fiction and mythology, utilizing the theories of Joseph Campbell and Carl Jung in particular. Conclusions are then drawn that argue that science fiction performs the same functions as mythology in the modern world. The author provides examples of these functions being performed in science fiction by analyzing two novels: The Forest of Hands and Teeth, and Stranger in a Strange Land. Finally, the document explores the narratives' uses of time in historical and ahistorical modes as a vehicle for its functions, and argues that the various uses of time are key to science fiction acting as modern mythology. Master of Arts