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BACKGROUND: There is a long tradition in environmental health of using frameworks for evidence synthesis, such as those of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency for its Integrated Science Assessments and the International Agency for Research on Cancer Monographs. The framework, Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development, and Evaluation (GRADE), was developed for evidence synthesis in clinical medicine. The U.S. Office of Health Assessment and Translation (OHAT) elaborated an approach for evidence synthesis in environmental health building on GRADE. METHODS: We applied a modified OHAT approach and a broader narrative assessment to assess the level of confidence in a large systematic review on traffic-related air pollution and health outcomes. DISCUSSION: We discuss several challenges with the OHAT approach and its implementation and suggest improvements for synthesizing evidence from observational studies in environmental health. We consider the determination of confidence using a formal rating scheme of up- and downgrading of certain factors, the treatment of every factor as equally important, and the lower initial confidence rating of observational studies to be fundamental issues in the OHAT approach. We argue that some observational studies can offer high-confidence evidence in environmental health. We note that heterogeneity in magnitude of effect estimates should generally not weaken the confidence in the evidence, and consistency of associations across study designs, populations, and exposure assessment methods may strengthen confidence in the evidence. We mention that publication bias should be explored beyond statistical methods and is likely limited when large and collaborative studies comprise most of the evidence and when accrued over several decades. We propose to identify possible key biases, their most likely direction, and their potential impacts on the results. We think that the OHAT approach and other GRADE-type frameworks require substantial modification to align better with features of environmental health questions and the studies that address them. We emphasize that a broader, narrative evidence assessment based on the systematic review may complement a formal GRADE-type evaluation. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP11532.

Objectives: We report results of a systematic review on the health effects of long-term traffic-related air pollution (TRAP) and diabetes in the adult population. Methods: An expert Panel appointed by the Health Effects Institute conducted this systematic review. We searched the PubMed and LUDOK databases for epidemiological studies from 1980 to July 2019. TRAP was defined based on a comprehensive protocol. Random-effects meta-analyses were performed. Confidence assessments were based on a modified Office for Health Assessment and Translation (OHAT) approach, complemented with a broader narrative synthesis. We extended our interpretation to include evidence published up to May 2022. Results: We considered 21 studies on diabetes. All meta-analytic estimates indicated higher diabetes risks with higher exposure. Exposure to NO2 was associated with higher diabetes prevalence (RR 1.09; 95% CI: 1.02; 1.17 per 10 μg/m3), but less pronounced for diabetes incidence (RR 1.04; 95% CI: 0.96; 1.13 per 10 μg/m3). The overall confidence in the evidence was rated moderate, strengthened by the addition of 5 recently published studies. Conclusion: There was moderate evidence for an association of long-term TRAP exposure with diabetes.

We appreciate the emphasis on the flexibility of the OHAT approach, including a narrative assessment. We respectfully disagree that we incorrectly portrayed the OHAT approach, and we clarify below with [...]

Abstract Background The evaluation of exposure to ambient temperatures in epidemiological studies has generally been based on records from meteorological stations which may not adequately represent local temperature variability. Here we propose a spatially explicit model to estimate local exposure to temperatures of large populations under various meteorological conditions based on satellite and meteorological data. Methods A general linear model was used to estimate surface temperatures using 15 LANDSAT 5 and LANDSAT 7 images for Quebec Province, Canada between 1987 and 2002 and spanning the months of June to August. The images encompassed both rural and urban landscapes and predictors included: meteorological records of temperature and wind speed, distance to major water bodies, Normalized Differential Vegetation Index (NDVI), land cover (built and bare land, water, or vegetation), latitude, longitude, and week of the year. Results The model explained 77% of the variance in surface temperature, accounting for both temporal and spatial variations. The standard error of estimates was 1.42°C. Land cover and NDVI were strong predictors of surface temperature. Conclusions This study suggests that a statistical approach to estimating surface temperature incorporating both spatially explicit satellite data and time-varying meteorological data may be relevant to assessing exposure to heat during the warm season in the Quebec. By allowing the estimation of space- and time-specific surface temperatures, this model may also be used to assess the possible impacts of land use changes under various meteorological conditions. It can be applied to assess heat exposure within a large population and at relatively fine-grained scale. It may be used to evaluate the acute health effect of heat exposure over long time frames. The method proposed here could be replicated in other areas around the globe for which satellite data and meteorological data is available.

Abstract Background While the effects of daily fine particulate exposure (PM) have been well reviewed, the epidemiological and physiological evidence of cardiovascular effects associated to sub-daily exposures has not. We performed a theoretical model-driven systematic non-meta-analytical literature review to document the association between PM sub-daily exposures (≤6 hours) and arrhythmia, ischemia and myocardial infarction (MI) as well as the likely mechanisms by which sub-daily PM exposures might induce these acute cardiovascular effects. This review was motivated by the assessment of the risk of exposure to elevated sub-daily levels of PM during fireworks displays. Methods Medline and Elsevier's EMBase were consulted for the years 1996-2008. Search keywords covered potential cardiovascular effects, the pollutant of interest and the short duration of the exposure. Only epidemiological and experimental studies of adult humans (age > 18 yrs) published in English were reviewed. Information on design, population and PM exposure characteristics, and presence of an association with selected cardiovascular effects or physiological assessments was extracted from retrieved articles. Results Of 231 articles identified, 49 were reviewed. Of these, 17 addressed the relationship between sub-daily exposures to PM and cardiovascular effects: five assessed ST-segment depression indicating ischemia, eight assessed arrhythmia or fibrillation and five considered MI. Epidemiologic studies suggest that exposure to sub-daily levels of PM is associated with MI and ischemic events in the elderly. Epidemiological studies of sub-daily exposures suggest a plausible biological mechanism involving the autonomic nervous system while experimental studies suggest that vasomotor dysfunction may also relate to the occurrence of MI and ischemic events. Conclusions Future studies should clarify associations between cardiovascular effects of sub-daily PM exposure with PM size fraction and concurrent gaseous pollutant exposures. Experimental studies appear more promising for elucidating the physiological mechanisms, time courses and causes than epidemiological studies which employ central pollution monitors for measuring effects and for assessing their time course. Although further studies are needed to strengthen the evidence, given that exposure to sub-daily high levels of PM (for a few hours) is frequent and given the suggestive evidence that sub-daily PM exposures are associated with the occurrence of cardiovascular effects, we recommend that persons with cardiovascular diseases avoid such situations.

ObjectivesSince 2004, the Montreal heat response plan (MHRP) has been developed and implemented on the Island of Montreal to reduce heat-related health effects in the general population. In this paper, we aimed to assess the barriers and facilitators to implementation of the MHRP and evaluate the awareness of key elements of the plan by healthcare professionals and individuals from vulnerable populations.MethodsData were gathered from monitoring reports and a questionnaire administered to managers of healthcare institutions and healthcare workers in Montreal-area health and social services institutions. Individual interviews and focus groups with healthcare workers and with individuals with schizophrenia or suffering from drug or alcohol dependencies were performed. Data were categorized according to predefined subthemes. Coding matrices were then used to determine the most frequently occurring elements in the subthemes.ResultsOur results indicate that actions are progressively implemented each year in the healthcare network. Intensification of surveillance for signs of heat-related illness is the most frequently reported measure. Identification and prioritization of clientele and homecare patients are identified as a challenge, as is ensuring the availability of sufficient personnel during a heat wave. Analysis of practice and awareness in healthcare professionals reveals that preventive measures are known and applied by the personnel. Individuals from vulnerable population groups were not uniformly aware of preventive measures, and consequently, variability was observed in their application.ConclusionThe framework proposed in this study revealed valuable information that can be useful to improve plans aimed at reducing heat-related health effects in the population.

ObjectivesWe propose a novel approach to examine vulnerability in the relationship between heat and years of life lost and apply to neighborhood social disparities in Montreal and Paris.MethodsWe used historical data from the summers of 1990 through 2007 for Montreal and from 2004 through 2009 for Paris to estimate daily years of life lost social disparities (DYLLD), summarizing social inequalities across groups. We used Generalized Linear Models to separately estimate relative risks (RR) for DYLLD in association with daily mean temperatures in both cities. We used 30 climate scenarios of daily mean temperature to estimate future temperature distributions (2021-2050). We performed random effect meta-analyses to assess the impact of climate change by climate scenario for each city and compared the impact of climate change for the two cities using a meta-regression analysis.ResultsWe show that an increase in ambient temperature leads to an increase in social disparities in daily years of life lost. The impact of climate change on DYLLD attributable to temperature was of 2.06 (95% CI: 1.90, 2.25) in Montreal and 1.77 (95% CI: 1.61, 1.94) in Paris. The city explained a difference of 0.31 (95% CI: 0.14, 0.49) on the impact of climate change.ConclusionWe propose a new analytical approach for estimating vulnerability in the relationship between heat and health. Our results suggest that in Paris and Montreal, health disparities related to heat impacts exist today and will increase in the future.

BackgroundMost studies that have assessed impacts on mortality of future temperature increases have relied on a small number of simulations and have not addressed the variability and sources of uncertainty in their mortality projections.ObjectivesWe assessed the variability of temperature projections and dependent future mortality distributions, using a large panel of temperature simulations based on different climate models and emission scenarios.MethodsWe used historical data from 1990 through 2007 for Montreal, Quebec, Canada, and Poisson regression models to estimate relative risks (RR) for daily nonaccidental mortality in association with three different daily temperature metrics (mean, minimum, and maximum temperature) during June through August. To estimate future numbers of deaths attributable to ambient temperatures and the uncertainty of the estimates, we used 32 different simulations of daily temperatures for June-August 2020-2037 derived from three global climate models (GCMs) and a Canadian regional climate model with three sets of RRs (one based on the observed historical data, and two on bootstrap samples that generated the 95% CI of the attributable number (AN) of deaths). We then used analysis of covariance to evaluate the influence of the simulation, the projected year, and the sets of RRs used to derive the attributable numbers of deaths.ResultsWe found that < 1% of the variability in the distributions of simulated temperature for June-August of 2020-2037 was explained by differences among the simulations. Estimated ANs for 2020-2037 ranged from 34 to 174 per summer (i.e., June-August). Most of the variability in mortality projections (38%) was related to the temperature-mortality RR used to estimate the ANs.ConclusionsThe choice of the RR estimate for the association between temperature and mortality may be important to reduce uncertainty in mortality projections.

BackgroundAmbient air ozone (O3) is a pulmonary irritant that has been associated with respiratory health effects including increased lung inflammation and permeability, airway hyperreactivity, respiratory symptoms, and decreased lung function. Estimation of O3 exposure is a complex task because the pollutant exhibits complex spatiotemporal patterns. To refine the quality of exposure estimation, various spatiotemporal methods have been developed worldwide.ObjectivesWe sought to compare the accuracy of three spatiotemporal models to predict summer ground-level O3 in Quebec, Canada.MethodsWe developed a land-use mixed-effects regression (LUR) model based on readily available data (air quality and meteorological monitoring data, road networks information, latitude), a Bayesian maximum entropy (BME) model incorporating both O3 monitoring station data and the land-use mixed model outputs (BME-LUR), and a kriging method model based only on available O3 monitoring station data (BME kriging). We performed leave-one-station-out cross-validation and visually assessed the predictive capability of each model by examining the mean temporal and spatial distributions of the average estimated errors.ResultsThe BME-LUR was the best predictive model (R2 = 0.653) with the lowest root mean-square error (RMSE ;7.06 ppb), followed by the LUR model (R2 = 0.466, RMSE = 8.747) and the BME kriging model (R2 = 0.414, RMSE = 9.164).ConclusionsOur findings suggest that errors of estimation in the interpolation of O3 concentrations with BME can be greatly reduced by incorporating outputs from a LUR model developed with readily available data.