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Predicting and understanding longevity have always been a major concern in the fields of demography and actuarial science. Accurate mortality projections at the country level enable governments to address issues such as the structure of pension schemes, public healthcare policies, or even solve macroeconomics problems. Similarly, precise mortality forecast at the individual firm level are essential for insurance companies to effectively price their life insurance products, establish reserve funds, and calculate their Solvency Capital Requirement (SCR). However, understanding mortality at the company level involves challenges due to a lack of sufficient large datasets which makes impossible to fit the most popular mortality models in the actuarial literature. Consequently, insurance companies tend to employ simpler methods which often involves the underestimation (overestimation) of mortality (longevity) in saving products and hence, placing too high margins on their estimates, resulting in a higher cost of solvency capital (SCR) and lower profitability. The objective of this paper is to fit and forecast the mortality of the insured population using various procedures that take into account the differences between the insured and national populations. For this purpose, we will recover the piggy-back methodology, whilst introducing a novel alternative approach. The paper provide a numerical illustration of how these methodologies work using data from a Spanish life insurance company. Additionally, we assess the potential impact of applying these proposals on SCR for this particular portfolio. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

ABSTRACT The field of conservation genomics is becoming increasingly interested in whether, and how, structural variant (SV) genotype information can be leveraged in the management of threatened species. The functional consequences of SVs are more complex than for single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), as SVs typically impact a larger proportion of the genome due to their size and thus may be more likely to contribute to load. While the impacts of SV‐specific genetic load may be less consequential for large populations, the interplay between weakened selection and stochastic processes means that smaller populations, such as those of the threatened Aotearoa hihi/New Zealand stitchbird (Notiomystis cincta), may harbour a high SV load. Hihi were once confined to a single remnant population, but have been reestablished into six sanctuaries and reserves, often via secondary bottlenecks, resulting in low genetic diversity, low adaptive potential, and inbreeding depression. In this study, we use whole genome resequencing of 30 individuals from the Tiritiri Matangi population to identify the nature and distribution of both SNPs and SVs within this small avian population. We find that SNP and SV individual mutation load is only moderately correlated, likely because SVs arise in regions of high recombination and that are less evolutionarily conserved. Finally, we leverage a long‐term monitoring dataset of pedigree and fitness data to assess the impact of SNP and SV mutation loads on individual fitness, and find that SNP and SV realised load had similar negative correlations with lifetime fitness. However, of the masked load metrics, only SVs had a positive significant correlation with lifetime fitness, indicating that masking of deleterious alleles may be more important for SVs than for SNPs. The results of this study indicate that only examining SNPs neglects important aspects of intra‐specific variation and that studying SVs has direct implications for linking genetic diversity and genomic health to inform management decisions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The recent rediscovering of the Millefiori Piemontese breed, previously considered as extinct, has led to its genetic characterisation: establishing the basis for its recovery and preservation. This study describes the morpho-biometric traits and compares the genetic variability of the Millefiori Piemontese breed with that of other local chicken breeds using 26 microsatellite markers. A subset of 14 markers was used to compare the genetic variation of the Millefiori Piemontese breed with that of two other Piedmontese chicken breeds (Bionda Piemontese and Bianca di Saluzzo) as well as 17 Italian and 2 commercial hybrids, whose genetic variability has already been investigated. The present study confirmed the sexual dimorphism and assessed the genetic variability of the Millefiori Piemontese in terms of number of alleles/locus (Na = 4), the effective number of alleles (Nea = 3), observed (Ho = 0.56) and expected heterozygosity (He = 0.53), self-coancestry (IB = 0.65), potential extinction risk (ERI = 2), and its contribution to the Italian poultry biodiversity (GDT = −0.60). The results indicate that, despite its small population size (Ne = 56), the Millefiori Piemontese population exhibits significant genetic diversity, making it a valuable resource for breeding programs focused on preserving the breed and safeguarding its biodiversity. This study is the first to investigate the genetic variability of the Millefiori Piemontese breed and compare it with other local poultry breeds. The findings highlight the genetic uniqueness of the Millefiori breed and its significant contribution to the biodiversity of chickens in Piedmont and Italy, emphasising the importance of its conservation. HIGHLIGHTS: The Millefiori Piemontese is an Italian local breed, whose population has drastically decreased due to the spread of commercial hybrids, bordering on extinction; today a little group of individuals has been identified in 5 small farms. Microsatellite markers were used to evaluate the genetic variability and the contribution to poultry biodiversity. Millefiori Piemontese showed a high degree of genetic variability useful for adapting to new environmental conditions. Millefiori Piemontese breed makes a positive contribution to overall Italian genetic diversity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The persistence of small populations is influenced by the degree and cost of inbreeding, with the degree of inbreeding depending on whether close-kin mating is passively or actively avoided. Few studies have simultaneously studied these factors. We examined inbreeding in a small, isolated population of westslope cutthroat trout using extensive genetic and demographic data. Passive inbreeding avoidance was low, with predicted lifetime dispersal of approximately 36 and 74 m for females and males, respectively. Additionally, we found limited evidence for active inbreeding avoidance during reproduction. Relatives remained spatially clustered into adulthood, and observed relatedness among mate pairs was greater than expected under random mating by 0.09, suggesting that inbreeding is a concern in this population. Further, we examined sex-specific inbreeding depression throughout the life cycle and provide evidence for inbreeding depression in some fitness components, including family size, juvenile survival and reproductive success. Our results suggest that, in an at-risk trout population, limited passive and active inbreeding avoidance lead to a higher degree of inbreeding than expected under random mating. Observed inbreeding, along with evidence for fitness reduction due to inbreeding depression, could put the population at a heightened risk of decline or extirpation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The recent rediscovering of the Millefiori Piemontese breed, previously considered as extinct, has led to its genetic characterisation: establishing the basis for its recovery and preservation. This study describes the morpho-biometric traits and compares the genetic variability of the Millefiori Piemontese breed with that of other local chicken breeds using 26 microsatellite markers. A subset of 14 markers was used to compare the genetic variation of the Millefiori Piemontese breed with that of two other Piedmontese chicken breeds (Bionda Piemontese and Bianca di Saluzzo) as well as 17 Italian and 2 commercial hybrids, whose genetic variability has already been investigated. The present study confirmed the sexual dimorphism and assessed the genetic variability of the Millefiori Piemontese in terms of number of alleles/locus (Na = 4), the effective number of alleles (Nea = 3), observed (Ho = 0.56) and expected heterozygosity (He = 0.53), self-coancestry (IB = 0.65), potential extinction risk (ERI = 2), and its contribution to the Italian poultry biodiversity (GDT = −0.60). The results indicate that, despite its small population size (Ne = 56), the Millefiori Piemontese population exhibits significant genetic diversity, making it a valuable resource for breeding programs focused on preserving the breed and safeguarding its biodiversity. This study is the first to investigate the genetic variability of the Millefiori Piemontese breed and compare it with other local poultry breeds. The findings highlight the genetic uniqueness of the Millefiori breed and its significant contribution to the biodiversity of chickens in Piedmont and Italy, emphasising the importance of its conservation.

Infant mortality is an important population health statistic that is often used to make health policy decisions. Unfortunately, these data are not available for all populations. A newly developed method is presented for accounting for the stochastic uncertainty found in infant mortality rates (IMRs) estimated from sample surveys and for the first time applied to a country in the Southeast Asian/Pacific Basin area, the Philippines. The method is founded on the fact that there are two sources of variation in sample-based estimates of IMRs: (1) sample size; and (2) variation of infant deaths. The approach is aimed at taking into account stochastic uncertainty while preserving information concerning the uncertainty due to sampling. In applying the method to the Philippines, the sample-based IMR estimates appear to perform well in terms of accounting for stochastic uncertainty. This finding is consistent with previous research assessing this approach in Africa and with variations, in Canada, Europe and the United States, which suggests that in the form presented here or in one of its variants, it could successfully be employed not only elsewhere in the Southeast Asia/Pacific Basin region but also in East Asia, North Asia, South Asia, and West Asia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding the dynamics of population recovery in threatened species requires robust longitudinal monitoring datasets. However, evidence‐based decision‐making is often impeded by variable data collection approaches, necessitating critical evaluation of restricted available baselines. The Hainan gibbon, the world's rarest primate, had possibly declined to only seven or eight individuals in 1978 at Bawangling National Nature Reserve but has experienced subsequent population growth. Past population estimates lack detailed reporting of survey effort, and multiple conflicting estimates are available, hindering assessment of gibbon recovery. We investigated all reported estimates of Bawangling gibbon population size from 1978 to 2022, to evaluate the biological signal of population trends and the extent to which noise associated with varying survey effort, reporting and estimation may mask or misrepresent any underlying signal. This longitudinal dataset demonstrates that the Bawangling population experienced a series of bottlenecks and recoveries, with three successive periods of growth interspersed by population crashes (1978–1989, 1989–2000 and 2000–2022). The rate of gibbon population recovery was progressively slower over time in each successive period of growth, and this potential decline in recovery rate following serial bottlenecks suggests that additional management strategies may be required alongside "nature‐based solutions" for this species. However, population viability analysis suggests the 1978 founder population is unlikely to have been as low as seven individuals, raising concerns for interpreting reported historical population counts and understanding the dynamics of the species' recovery. We caution against overinterpreting potential signals within "messy" conservation datasets, and we emphasise the crucial importance of standardised replicable survey methods and transparent reporting of data and effort in all future surveys of Hainan gibbons and other highly threatened species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Understanding the dynamics of population recovery in threatened species requires robust longitudinal monitoring datasets. However, evidence‐based decision‐making is often impeded by variable data collection approaches, necessitating critical evaluation of restricted available baselines. The Hainan gibbon, the world's rarest primate, had possibly declined to only seven or eight individuals in 1978 at Bawangling National Nature Reserve but has experienced subsequent population growth. Past population estimates lack detailed reporting of survey effort, and multiple conflicting estimates are available, hindering assessment of gibbon recovery. We investigated all reported estimates of Bawangling gibbon population size from 1978 to 2022, to evaluate the biological signal of population trends and the extent to which noise associated with varying survey effort, reporting and estimation may mask or misrepresent any underlying signal. This longitudinal dataset demonstrates that the Bawangling population experienced a series of bottlenecks and recoveries, with three successive periods of growth interspersed by population crashes (1978–1989, 1989–2000 and 2000–2022). The rate of gibbon population recovery was progressively slower over time in each successive period of growth, and this potential decline in recovery rate following serial bottlenecks suggests that additional management strategies may be required alongside “nature‐based solutions” for this species. However, population viability analysis suggests the 1978 founder population is unlikely to have been as low as seven individuals, raising concerns for interpreting reported historical population counts and understanding the dynamics of the species' recovery. We caution against overinterpreting potential signals within “messy” conservation datasets, and we emphasise the crucial importance of standardised replicable survey methods and transparent reporting of data and effort in all future surveys of Hainan gibbons and other highly threatened species.

Hector's dolphin, an endangered species endemic to the coastal waters of Aotearoa New Zealand, has a highly fragmented population structure. Low abundance of some local subpopulations, coupled with a stepping-stone mode of gene flow, suggests that these are at high risk of extinction. During the austral summer, dolphins from the small, genetically distinct subpopulation found along the South Island's south-east coast frequently use Porpoise Bay, an important foraging and calving area. The estimate of abundance of dolphins using the bay has not been updated since the introduction of protection measures in 2008 intended to mitigate bycatch in fisheries. Photo-ID surveys, including random photography to estimate mark rate, were conducted during summer 2020. Using Chapman's version of the Lincoln-Petersen estimator, it was estimated that 63 Hector's dolphins (95% CI = 46–79), including three new calves, used Porpoise Bay during the study period. While regression analyses showed no evidence of change since previous abundance estimates in 1996–97, 2002–03, and 2008, the very low estimated abundance validates fears for the long-term persistence of this subpopulation. In this context, potential threats need to be managed within a precautionary framework, with a clear goal of facilitating recovery. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Agalinis is a diverse and wide-ranging genus within the Orobanchaceae. Species may be either widespread or restricted in range. Natural populations tend to be small and isolated being distributed across natural grassland or open habitats that are frequently fragmented due to habitat loss. We ask whether patterns of distribution and limited occurrence may be related to visiting bee diversity. We conducted a review of the bee taxa recorded visiting flowers of the genus Agalinis involving 15 published surveys plus our own field observations. We assessed the association of visiting bee diversity on flower size, geographical distribution, regional distribution, and conservation status of 14 species of Agalinis. From a total of 160 floral records, we found 5 families, 18 genera and 58 bee taxa have been documented visiting flowers of Agalinis. Halictidae (43.1%) and Apidae (29.3%) constituted the largest proportion of bees. The number of bee taxa recorded for a species of Agalinis showed a significant positive relationship with geographic range across the United States and Canada. However, no differences in bee diversity at the level of family were noted for flower size, regional distribution or conservation status. Bee diversity patterns recorded to date suggest a generalized pollination system not associated with the limited distribution or small population sizes of many Agalinis species. Nevertheless, previous studies indicate a level of specialization with respect to flower form and bee foraging behavior. The gibbous to ventricose corolla, combined with dimorphic stamens bearing filament trichomes facilitate inverted bee foraging for pollen gathering. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Effective conservation of threatened populations requires identification of the processes limiting recovery. When multiple population processes are potentially limiting, they are sometimes analyzed independently, often using different datasets. Analytically, this is suboptimal, as processes are often correlated, which can lead to biased estimates of parameters and quantities of interest. Integrated population models (IPMs) can synthesize several data streams in the same probabilistic framework to circumvent these issues. Lack of prey was identified as one of the primary threats to recovery of critically endangered southern resident killer whales (SRKWs), Orcinus orca. Previous studies have correlated SRKW demographic rates with indices of Chinook salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha abundance, but these approaches have modeled reproduction and survival independently. We developed an IPM for SRKWs that models both processes simultaneously, as a function of Chinook salmon abundance along the west coast of North America. We used this model to evaluate the relationship between Chinook salmon abundance and demographic rates of SRKWs, with the goal of updating our understanding of a potential causal relationship between prey availability and SRKW population dynamics, and how these relationships may have changed over time. Results suggest that SRKW mortality rates are more strongly associated with Chinook salmon abundance than birth rates. Our analysis also suggests northern resident killer whale abundance could also be affecting SRKW carrying capacity, possibly through competition over shared prey resources. The IPM fit observed total abundance data well and predicted temporal changes in population demographics with reasonable accuracy, but small sample size may have opacified model selection. Our approach offers a valuable tool for predicting the response of the SRKW population to alternative management strategies involving the recovery of Chinook salmon stocks in the eastern Pacific. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Hector's dolphin (Cephalorhynchus hectori) is an endangered species endemic to the coastal waters of Aotearoa New Zealand. To address the unsustainable bycatch of Hector's dolphins, restrictions on commercial gillnetting within 4 nautical miles of the coast were implemented in 2008, covering most of the South Island's east and south coasts.A small subpopulation of Hector's dolphins, estimated at 42 (95% CI: 19–92) in 2012, is located off Dunedin, on the south‐east coast of the South Island. It is known from other locations that Hector's dolphins are distributed well beyond 4 nautical miles from the coast and hence are vulnerable to ongoing gillnetting.In this study, a combination of boat‐based surveys, passive acoustic monitoring (PAM) and analysis of fishing effort were used to generate an up‐to‐date abundance estimate for Hector's dolphins off Dunedin and assess their vulnerability to commercial fishing. In the summer of 2021, abundance was estimated at 41 individuals (95% CI = 31–54), providing no evidence for population change since 2012.Analysis of visual sighting data indicated ongoing overlap between Hector's dolphins and commercial fishing effort. Using PAM, Hector's dolphins were detected on 94% of days at a location approximately 0.3 nautical miles from the coast, suggesting that shallow waters provide critical habitat for these dolphins year‐round. At an offshore mooring, approximately 4.5 nautical miles from the coast and therefore outside the area in which gillnetting is prohibited, detections were made on 35% of days, indicating potential for direct overlap with commercial fisheries.The inherent vulnerability of small populations to extinction highlights the need to take a precautionary approach to the management of Dunedin's Hector's dolphins if population recovery is to be facilitated. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Background Novel precision medicine therapeutics target increasingly granular, genomically-defined populations. Rare sub-groups make it challenging to study within a clinical trial or single real-world data (RWD) source; therefore, pooling from disparate sources of RWD may be required for feasibility. Heterogeneity assessment for pooled data is particularly complex when contrasting a pooled real-world comparator cohort (rwCC) with a single-arm clinical trial (SAT), because the individual comparisons are not independent as all compare a rwCC to the same SAT. Our objective was to develop a methodological framework for pooling RWD focused on the rwCC use case, and simulate novel approaches of heterogeneity assessment, especially for small datasets. Methods We present a framework with the following steps: pre-specification, assessment of dataset eligibility, and outcome analyses (including assessment of outcome heterogeneity). We then simulated heterogeneity assessments for a binary response outcome in a SAT compared to two rwCCs, using standard methods for meta-analysis, and an Adjusted Cochran’s Q test, and directly comparing the individual participant data (IPD) from the rwCCs. Results We found identical power to detect a true difference for the adjusted Cochran’s Q test and the IPD method, with both approaches superior to a standard Cochran’s Q test. When assessing the impact of heterogeneity in the null scenario of no difference between the SAT and rwCCs, a lack of statistical power led to Type 1 error inflation. Similarly, in the alternative scenario of a true difference between SAT and rwCCs, we found substantial Type 2 error, with underpowered heterogeneity testing leading to underestimation of the treatment effect. Conclusions We developed a methodological framework for pooling RWD sources in the context of designing a rwCC for a SAT. When testing for heterogeneity during this process, the adjusted Cochran’s Q test matches the statistical power of IPD heterogeneity testing. Limitations of quantitative heterogeneity testing in protecting against Type 1 or Type 2 error indicate these tests are best used descriptively, and after careful selection of datasets based on clinical/data considerations. We hope these findings will facilitate the rigorous pooling of RWD to unlock insights to benefit oncology patients.

Abstract Effective conservation of threatened populations requires identification of the processes limiting recovery. When multiple population processes are potentially limiting, they are sometimes analyzed independently, often using different datasets. Analytically, this is suboptimal, as processes are often correlated, which can lead to biased estimates of parameters and quantities of interest. Integrated population models (IPMs) can synthesize several data streams in the same probabilistic framework to circumvent these issues. Lack of prey was identified as one of the primary threats to recovery of critically endangered southern resident killer whales (SRKWs), Orcinus orca. Previous studies have correlated SRKW demographic rates with indices of Chinook salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha abundance, but these approaches have modeled reproduction and survival independently. We developed an IPM for SRKWs that models both processes simultaneously, as a function of Chinook salmon abundance along the west coast of North America. We used this model to evaluate the relationship between Chinook salmon abundance and demographic rates of SRKWs, with the goal of updating our understanding of a potential causal relationship between prey availability and SRKW population dynamics, and how these relationships may have changed over time. Results suggest that SRKW mortality rates are more strongly associated with Chinook salmon abundance than birth rates. Our analysis also suggests northern resident killer whale abundance could also be affecting SRKW carrying capacity, possibly through competition over shared prey resources. The IPM fit observed total abundance data well and predicted temporal changes in population demographics with reasonable accuracy, but small sample size may have opacified model selection. Our approach offers a valuable tool for predicting the response of the SRKW population to alternative management strategies involving the recovery of Chinook salmon stocks in the eastern Pacific.

Understanding the effects of seed predation, dispersal, and recruitment on the population dynamics of rare plant species is essential for generating effective management strategies. Unfortunately for most rare plants, the parameterization of these processes is limited and generally not included in demographic analyses. This exclusion can lead to biased estimates of vital rates and overall population growth rates, as well as limit inferences about inter-population processes like colonization and demographic rescue that can affect population viability. Based on previous empirical studies from Fort Liberty (formerly Fort Bragg) North Carolina (USA), we constructed a spatially explicit demographic model that accounts for pre-dispersal seed predation, dispersal, and habitat suitability for Lindera subcoriacea (bog spicebush), a rare shrub in the southeastern United States. We demographically modeled three scenarios: S1 did not include any of the three parameters; S2 accounted for seed predation and dispersal; and S3 included all three of the parameters. Results suggested that pre-dispersal seed predation, dispersal, and habitat suitability negatively impact the population growth rates of bog spicebush relative to the naïve demographic model. After 100 annual time steps, scenarios S1, S2, and S3 led to a 96%, 49%, and 1% increase in population size, respectively. In addition, over the course of 100 years, results of scenarios S2 and S3 demonstrated limited increases in site occupancy, with newly occupied areas located < 1 km from previously occupied habitat. Our results suggest additional parameterization of plant demographic models may be an informative endeavor and warranted, even in the absence of empirical data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Novel precision medicine therapeutics target increasingly granular, genomically-defined populations. Rare sub-groups make it challenging to study within a clinical trial or single real-world data (RWD) source; therefore, pooling from disparate sources of RWD may be required for feasibility. Heterogeneity assessment for pooled data is particularly complex when contrasting a pooled real-world comparator cohort (rwCC) with a single-arm clinical trial (SAT), because the individual comparisons are not independent as all compare a rwCC to the same SAT. Our objective was to develop a methodological framework for pooling RWD focused on the rwCC use case, and simulate novel approaches of heterogeneity assessment, especially for small datasets. Methods: We present a framework with the following steps: pre-specification, assessment of dataset eligibility, and outcome analyses (including assessment of outcome heterogeneity). We then simulated heterogeneity assessments for a binary response outcome in a SAT compared to two rwCCs, using standard methods for meta-analysis, and an Adjusted Cochran's Q test, and directly comparing the individual participant data (IPD) from the rwCCs. Results: We found identical power to detect a true difference for the adjusted Cochran's Q test and the IPD method, with both approaches superior to a standard Cochran's Q test. When assessing the impact of heterogeneity in the null scenario of no difference between the SAT and rwCCs, a lack of statistical power led to Type 1 error inflation. Similarly, in the alternative scenario of a true difference between SAT and rwCCs, we found substantial Type 2 error, with underpowered heterogeneity testing leading to underestimation of the treatment effect. Conclusions: We developed a methodological framework for pooling RWD sources in the context of designing a rwCC for a SAT. When testing for heterogeneity during this process, the adjusted Cochran's Q test matches the statistical power of IPD heterogeneity testing. Limitations of quantitative heterogeneity testing in protecting against Type 1 or Type 2 error indicate these tests are best used descriptively, and after careful selection of datasets based on clinical/data considerations. We hope these findings will facilitate the rigorous pooling of RWD to unlock insights to benefit oncology patients. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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Begonia jocelinoi Brade (Begoniaceae) is a threatened species, endemic to a small locality in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest. The species was formerly listed as Wanted in the Red List of Endemic Flora of the state of Rio de Janeiro because it had not been recorded since 1953. After evaluating herbarium collections and conducting fieldwork during May 2019–February 2020, we report the rediscovery of a single population of 65 reproductive individuals of B. jocelinoi , along with numerous seedlings, besides a trail in Itatiaia National Park. This Park is an IUCN category II protected area that permits some tourism activities. Some individuals of B. jocelinoi showed signs of pruning following the maintenance of the trail. We recommend strategies for in situ and ex situ conservation of this narrowly endemic species, including provision of advice to tourists regarding the occurrence of threatened species, and diversion of the trail where the species occurs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The critically endangered Great Indian Bustard Ardeotis nigriceps (GIB) is on the verge of imminent extinction, and exists as fragmented populations with 100–150 birds in India and a few in neighbouring Pakistan. Rajasthan holds the largest population of ∼128 birds, Gujarat has ∼5, and Maharashtra-Karnataka-Andhra Pradesh having ∼10 birds. Their range and abundance have reduced by 90% within last 50 years, primarily due to hunting, habitat loss to agriculture and industry, and power-line collisions. Conservation agencies are implementing habitat protection/restoration and conservation breeding as insurance against extinction and for future reintroductions/supplementation. To guide these ongoing in-situ and ex-situ conservation measures, we examined patterns of genetic diversity, population structure, bottlenecks and dispersal using microsatellite and mitochondrial markers. Analyses of 73 individual GIB revealed low mt-DNA (h=0.554, π = 0.001) and microsatellite diversity (Ho=0.32). Bayesian clustering analysis identified three genetic populations. Migration between these populations was low and asymmetric, highest being from Rajasthan into Maharashtra (9%) and Madhya Pradesh (4%), perhaps due to extreme habitat fragmentation and small numbers. Rajasthan population encompassed the maximum genetic diversity, that along with its large size and availability of breeders, made it ideal for sourcing founders for conservation breeding. However, the presence of private alleles in other populations implies that additional sourcing of birds from Andhra Pradesh and Gujarat may be required to capture the extant gene pool of GIB in captive founder population.

Small populations of cetaceans with restricted ranges are particularly vulnerable to anthropogenic disturbances. The assessment of demographic parameters for these populations can provide meaningful insight into the ways in which they are being impacted by different threats. The Taiwanese white dolphin (TWD), Sousa chinensis taiwanensis, is a subspecies endemic to Taiwan and is classified as Critically Endangered.Multistate robust design mark–recapture models were fitted under a Bayesian framework to estimate demographic parameters and trends for the population from 2010 to 2018. Differences in these parameters by age category and the dolphins' use of their habitat were also explored. Abundance estimates varied from a maximum of 72 in 2010 (95% credible interval (CI) [65, 78]) to a minimum of 61 (95% CI [58, 64]) in 2017. In the oldest age category, abundance estimates varied from 10 (95% CI [10, 11]) in 2013 to 13 (95% CI [10, 13]) in 2016.Modelling showed that, over time, the abundance of dolphins in the oldest age group remained stable, while the remainder of the population, which includes reproductive individuals, experienced a steady decline. This decline is bound to affect the demographic recovery of TWD.Spatial heterogeneity indicated that some areas (i.e. with consistent high occurrences) likely represent important areas for biological functions of the TWD. This suggests that the recovery of the population may be enhanced with immediate and focused actions (such as the ban of gillnet fisheries) in these areas. However, with a small and declining population, reducing threats throughout their entire range is needed, including the new offshore windfarm development being constructed in and adjacent to the dolphin's range.Concerted actions to address known threats, continued monitoring of the population, and education of stakeholders are needed to prevent the extinction of the TWDs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In football research, 'small' trials with low statistical power are common. On the elite level, the inherently low number of participants obviously conflicts with the relevance of even tiny effects. However, general characteristics of football also contribute (e.g. multifactorially influenced and/or complex outcomes). Importantly, small sample sizes are problematic regardless of the study outcome with issues ranging from inconclusive results and low precision to unrepeatable 'discoveries' and overestimation of effect sizes. Therefore, meeting the calculated, target sample size is the first priority. If a suboptimal sample size must be accepted, a range of tools can improve insights. To begin with, some general aspects of data collection and analysis become more important and should be optimally implemented (e.g. reliability of measures). Building on this foundation, specific amendments are available on the levels of data collection (e.g. aggregated single-subject designs) and data analysis (e.g. Bayesian methods). The present commentary aims to give an overview of selected, practical tools for dealing with small sample sizes in football research and provide recommendations for their application in scenarios typical for the field. Importantly, versatility and adaptability are mirrored by the need for utmost transparency including a predetermined (ideally preregistered) study plan. Collaboration or counselling with an expert statistician is strongly encouraged. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The genus Telestes primarily comprises freshwater fish distributed mostly in the Mediterranean area. Recent investigation of the evolutionary history of this genus revealed that it originated in southern Europe, where the most ancient Telestes species are still present. The isolation of rivers in the karstic region facilitated allopatric speciation, resulting in a high number of Telestes species and a great portion of endemic species in freshwater systems of Croatia and Bosnia and Herzegovina. Most of the endemic Telestes species have very small distribution areas, inhabiting a single river or a few water bodies in a single karstic field, making them extremely vulnerable to anthropogenic changes. In order to contribute to practical conservation of the endemic Telestes species through the design of conservational measures that are likely to be the most effective in ensuring the future viability and undisturbed evolutionary course of those species, we have investigated their population genetic structure and estimated their viabilities. Population viability analyses were carried out based on the current state of populations and their habitats, as well as recognized threats. Several scenarios also included potential threats. Our results show that invasive species pose the biggest threat to the future survival of the endemic Telestes species. Contrary to previous opinions that a reduced genetic diversity is characteristic for small populations, high intraspecific genetic diversity was revealed inside most of the investigated species, which might enable most of the populations to cope with future changes and mitigate negative effects. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Identifying mechanisms of population change is fundamental for conserving small and declining populations and determining effective management strategies. Few studies, however, have measured the demographic components of population change for small populations of mammals (

Pine‐tree lappet moth (Dendrolimus pini L.) larvae can be serious defoliators of pine in several countries within mainland Europe. A breeding population of pine‐tree lappet moth was confirmed near Inverness, Scotland in 2009, prior to which the species had only been observed in the United Kingdom as an occasional nonbreeding migrant to southern England.To investigate whether a geographic pattern of DNA variation exists that could elucidate whether the population is native or introduced, we analysed nuclear (ITS2) and mitochondrial (NAD and COI) sequence data from D. pini from across a broad geographic range. Additionally, microsatellite marker data were used to examine neutral genetic diversity and to look for evidence of a recent population bottleneck in the Scottish population.ITS2 sequence analysis confirmed that the Scottish population was D. pini and identified a distinct Western European group of D. pini samples. Analysis of the mitochondrial sequences grouped the haplotypes into two main phylogenetic groups (A and B) and a well‐supported Western European sub‐group (b1). A high number of unique haplotypes were recorded, highlighting the haplotype diversity across the species range. The Scottish haplotype did not have an exact match but grouped with haplotypes from group B. The microsatellite markers highlighted low genetic diversity in the Scottish population but there was no evidence of a recent population bottleneck.Evidence to distinguish between a native versus a recent introduction origin of the Scottish population is equivocal. Further sampling to increase haplotype coverage may help to clarify this question. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Background It is important to estimate the treatment effect of interest accurately and precisely within the analysis of randomised controlled trials. One way to increase precision in the estimate and thus improve the power for randomised trials with continuous outcomes is through adjustment for pre-specified prognostic baseline covariates. Typically covariate adjustment is conducted using regression analysis, however recently, Inverse Probability of Treatment Weighting (IPTW) using the propensity score has been proposed as an alternative method. For a continuous outcome it has been shown that the IPTW estimator has the same large sample statistical properties as that obtained via analysis of covariance. However the performance of IPTW has not been explored for smaller population trials (

Abstract Predictions about the consequences of a small population size on genetic and deleterious variation are fundamental to population genetics. As small populations are more affected by genetic drift, purifying selection acting against deleterious alleles is predicted to be less efficient, therefore increasing the risk of inbreeding depression. However, the extent to which small populations are subjected to genetic drift depends on the nature and time frame in which the bottleneck occurs. Domesticated species are an excellent model to investigate the consequences of population bottlenecks on genetic and deleterious variation in small populations. This is because their history is dominated by known bottlenecks associated with domestication, breed formation and intense selective breeding. Here, we use whole‐genome sequencing data from 97 chickens representing 39 traditional fancy breeds to directly examine the consequences of two types of bottlenecks for deleterious variation: the severe domestication bottleneck and the recent population decline accompanying breed formation. We find that recently bottlenecked populations have a higher proportion of deleterious variants relative to populations that have been kept at small population sizes since domestication. We also observe that long tracts of homozygous genotypes (runs of homozygosity) are proportionally more enriched in deleterious variants than the rest of the genome. This enrichment is particularly evident in recently bottlenecked populations, suggesting that homozygosity of these variants is likely to occur due to genetic drift and recent inbreeding. Our results indicate that the timing and nature of population bottlenecks can substantially shape the deleterious variation landscape in small populations.

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• Genotyping purebred parents can imrpove genetic gain of organic pigs. • Using organic boars comes with opportunities and risks. • Organic pig breeders should carefully consider population size and rate of inbreeding when developing a breeding program for organic pigs. Optimizing organic pig breeding schemes depends on how to best allocate resources to phenotyping and genotyping. This study investigates how phenotyping and genotyping strategies affect genetic gain in a small organic pig population. We used stochastically simulated breeding schemes aimed at producing three-way crossbred finisher pigs. The simulated breeding schemes varied in the availability of phenotypes and genotypes for purebreds and crossbreds, the origin of the sire, and the genetic correlation between purebred and crossbred performance. For each simulated breeding scheme, genetic gain and rate of inbreeding were collected for up to 100 replicates. Phenotyping of crossbred individuals did not improve the genetic gain in the purebreds or the crossbreds. Genotyping purebred sows did improve genetic gain in both purebreds and crossbreds. Genetic gain and rate of inbreeding were maximized when internal sires were used, assuming strong GxE between organic and conventional production systems. Yet, breeding schemes that used internal sires had a larger variance in the genetic gain than those that used external sires. In conclusion, breeding schemes for organic pigs can be optimized by using internal sires and by genotyping the purebred parents. Yet, the rate of inbreeding and population size should be taken into careful consideration when developing an independent breeding program for a small (organic) population. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Reduced fitness through genetic drift and inbreeding is a major threat to small and isolated populations. Although previous studies have generally used genetically verified pedigrees to document effects of inbreeding and gene flow, these often fail to capture the whole inbreeding history of the species. By assembling a draft arctic fox (Vulpes lagopus) genome and resequencing complete genomes of 23 additional foxes born before and after a well‐documented immigration event in Scandinavia, we here look into the genomic consequences of inbreeding and genetic rescue. We found a difference in genome‐wide diversity, with 18% higher heterozygosity and 81% lower FROH in immigrant F1 compared to native individuals. However, more distant descendants of immigrants (F2, F3) did not show the same pattern. We also found that foxes with lower inbreeding had higher probability to survive their first year of life. Our results demonstrate the important link between genetic variation and fitness as well as the transient nature of genetic rescue. Moreover, our results have implications in conservation biology as they demonstrate that inbreeding depression can effectively be detected in the wild by a genomic approach. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Optimal conservation approaches have been proposed to differ for biota with contrasting evolutionary histories. Natural selection filters the distribution of plant traits over evolutionary time, with the current expression of traits mediating susceptibility to contemporary and often novel threats. We use old, climatically buffered, infertile landscape (OCBIL) theory to compile predictions regarding differences in exposure and susceptibility to key threats between OCBIL and young, often disturbed, fertile landscape (YODFEL) flora. Based on literature and existing data from the Southwest Australian Floristic Region (SWAFR), we evaluate evidence in support of our predictions, finding strong theoretical and empirical support for the proposition that exposure and/or impact of many threats differs between OCBILs and YODFELs. OCBILs have more exposure to land clearance from mining, whereas many YODFELs have greater exposure to land clearance from agriculture, and urban and industrial land uses, and greater overall levels of habitat loss and fragmentation. OCBIL flora are more susceptible to pathogens and extremes of fire interval than YODFEL flora, but conversely may have a greater capacity to persist in smaller populations if small populations featured in the evolutionary history of the species prior to anthropogenic fragmentation, and have substantial resistance to weed invasion. We argue that consideration of evolutionary history has an important role in informing conservation management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

West Asian drylands host a number of threatened large carnivores, including the leopard (Panthera pardus) which is limited generally to areas with low primary productivity. While conservation efforts have focused on these areas for several decades, reliable population density estimates are missing for many of them. Spatially explicit capture–recapture (SECR) methodology is a widely accepted population density estimation tool to monitor populations of large carnivores and it incorporates animal movement in the statistical estimation process. We employed multi-session maximum-likelihood SECR modeling to estimate the density of a small population of leopard in a mountainous environment surrounded by deserts in central Iran. During 6724 camera trap nights, we detected 8 and 5 independent leopards in 2012 and 2016 sessions, respectively. The top-performing model produced density estimates of 1.6 (95% CI = 0.9–2.9) and 1.0 (95% CI = 0.6–1.6) independent leopards/100 km2 in 2012 and 2016, respectively. Both sex and season had substantial effects on spatial scale (σ), with larger movements recorded for males, and during winter. The estimates from our density estimation exercise represent some of the lowest densities across the leopard global range and strengthen the notion that arid habitats support low densities of the species. These small populations are vulnerable to demographic stochasticity, and monitoring temporal changes in their population density and composition is a critical tool in assisting conservation managers to better understand their population performance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The genus Telestes primarily comprises freshwater fish distributed mostly in the Mediterranean area. Recent investigation of the evolutionary history of this genus revealed that it originated in southern Europe, where the most ancient Telestes species are still present. The isolation of rivers in the karstic region facilitated allopatric speciation, resulting in a high number of Telestes species and a great portion of endemic species in freshwater systems of Croatia and Bosnia and Herzegovina. Most of the endemic Telestes species have very small distribution areas, inhabiting a single river or a few water bodies in a single karstic field, making them extremely vulnerable to anthropogenic changes. In order to contribute to practical conservation of the endemic Telestes species through the design of conservational measures that are likely to be the most effective in ensuring the future viability and undisturbed evolutionary course of those species, we have investigated their population genetic structure and estimated their viabilities. Population viability analyses were carried out based on the current state of populations and their habitats, as well as recognized threats. Several scenarios also included potential threats. Our results show that invasive species pose the biggest threat to the future survival of the endemic Telestes species. Contrary to previous opinions that a reduced genetic diversity is characteristic for small populations, high intraspecific genetic diversity was revealed inside most of the investigated species, which might enable most of the populations to cope with future changes and mitigate negative effects.

Identifying mechanisms of population change is fundamental for conserving small and declining populations and determining effective management strategies. Few studies, however, have measured the demographic components of population change for small populations of mammals (<50 individuals). We estimated vital rates and trends in two adjacent but genetically distinct, threatened brown bear (Ursus arctos) populations in British Columbia, Canada, following the cessation of hunting. One population had approximately 45 resident bears but had some genetic and geographic connectivity to neighboring populations, while the other population had <25 individuals and was isolated. We estimated population‐specific vital rates by monitoring survival and reproduction of telemetered female bears and their dependent offspring from 2005 to 2018. In the larger, connected population, independent female survival was 1.00 (95% CI: 0.96–1.00) and the survival of cubs in their first year was 0.85 (95% CI: 0.62–0.95). In the smaller, isolated population, independent female survival was 0.81 (95% CI: 0.64–0.93) and first‐year cub survival was 0.33 (95% CI: 0.11–0.67). Reproductive rates did not differ between populations. The large differences in age‐specific survival estimates resulted in a projected population increase in the larger population (λ = 1.09; 95% CI: 1.04–1.13) and population decrease in the smaller population (λ = 0.84; 95% CI: 0.72–0.95). Low female survival in the smaller population was the result of both continued human‐caused mortality and an unusually high rate of natural mortality. Low cub survival may have been due to inbreeding and the loss of genetic diversity common in small populations, or to limited resources. In a systematic literature review, we compared our population trend estimates with those reported for other small populations (<300 individuals) of brown bears. Results suggest that once brown bear populations become small and isolated, populations rarely increase and, even with intensive management, recovery remains challenging. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Background The ASTERIX project developed a number of novel methods suited to study small populations. The objective of this exercise was to evaluate the applicability and added value of novel methods to improve drug development in small populations, using real world drug development programmes as reported in European Public Assessment Reports. Methods The applicability and added value of thirteen novel methods developed within ASTERIX were evaluated using data from 26 European Public Assessment Reports (EPARs) for orphan medicinal products, representative of rare medical conditions as predefined through six clusters. The novel methods included were ‘innovative trial designs’ (six methods), ‘level of evidence’ (one method), ‘study endpoints and statistical analysis’ (four methods), and ‘meta-analysis’ (two methods) and they were selected from the methods developed within ASTERIX based on their novelty; methods that discussed already available and applied strategies were not included for the purpose of this validation exercise. Pre-requisites for application in a study were systematized for each method, and for each main study in the selected EPARs it was assessed if all pre-requisites were met. This direct applicability using the actual study design was firstly assessed. Secondary, applicability and added value were explored allowing changes to study objectives and design, but without deviating from the context of the drug development plan. We evaluated whether differences in applicability and added value could be observed between the six predefined condition clusters. Results and discussion Direct applicability of novel methods appeared to be limited to specific selected cases. The applicability and added value of novel methods increased substantially when changes to the study setting within the context of drug development were allowed. In this setting, novel methods for extrapolation, sample size re-assessment, multi-armed trials, optimal sequential design for small sample sizes, Bayesian sample size re-estimation, dynamic borrowing through power priors and fall-back tests for co-primary endpoints showed most promise - applicable in more than 40% of evaluated EPARs in all clusters. Most of the novel methods were applicable to conditions in the cluster of chronic and progressive conditions, involving multiple systems/organs. Relatively fewer methods were applicable to acute conditions with single episodes. For the chronic clusters, Goal Attainment Scaling was found to be particularly applicable as opposed to other (non-chronic) clusters. Conclusion Novel methods as developed in ASTERIX can improve drug development programs. Achieving optimal added value of these novel methods often requires consideration of the entire drug development program, rather than reconsideration of methods for a specific trial. The novel methods tested were mostly applicable in chronic conditions, and acute conditions with recurrent episodes.

Pongo pygmaeus pygmaeus is a subspecies of Bornean orangutan whose distribution is restricted to the northern part of the Kapuas River, West Kalimantan, and is categorized as Critically Endangered. In October 2017 we carried out a survey to estimate orangutan density in the peat-swamp forests of the Sungai Palin watershed, of the upper Kapuas river, Kapuas Hulu, West Kalimantan, Indonesia. Surveys for orangutans in 1991, in nearby Nanga Awen, had indicated the presence of orangutans in the peat-swamp forests of this area. We used distance sampling techniques to estimate orangutan densities from nest observations. We recorded 76 orangutan nests along 4.5 km transects in Sungai Palin in 2017, and 71 orangutan nests were observed along 4.3 km transects in Nanga Awen in 1991, giving densities of 1.29 and 2.62 individuals/km2, respectively. The results of this orangutan survey can be used as a baseline for monitoring of orangutan populations for conservation and management of this watershed landscape. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Micro differential evolution (mDE) refers to algorithms that evolve with a small population to search for good solutions. Although mDEs are very useful for resource-constrained optimization tasks, the research on mDEs is still limited. In this paper, we propose a new mDE, i.e., vectorized bimodal distribution based mDE (called VB-mDE). The main idea is to employ a vectorized bimodal distribution parameter adjustment mechanism in mDE for performance enhancement. Specifically, in the VB-mDE, two important control parameters, i.e., scale factor F and crossover rate C ⁢ R , are adjusted by bimodal Cauchy distribution. At the same time, to increase the population diversity, the scale factor F is vectorized. The proposed VB-mDE is evaluated on the CEC2014 benchmark functions and compared with the state-of-the-art mDEs and normal DEs. The results show that the proposed VB-mDE has advantages in terms of solution accuracy and convergence speed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Infant Mortality is an important population health statistic that is often used to inform health policy decisions. Unfortunately, these data are not typically available for areas with small populations, e.g. rural counties. Borrowing ideas from the Empirical Bayesian approach, a method is presented for estimating the "underlying" infant mortality rates for areas with small populations where the number of infant deaths is either zero or so small that it is subject to a high level of stochastic uncertainty and, thereby, often not reported. The idea is that the underlying rates generated by the estimation method should reflect the intrinsic mortality regimes of these small populations. The method is described and illustrated in a case study by estimating infant mortality rates for the 42 of the 82 counties in Mississippi where reported births were less than 300 in 2015. Among these 42 "small population" counties are eight originally reporting zero infant deaths for 2015, thereby generating infant mortality rates of zero as well. The method described in this paper generates non-zero infant mortality rates for these same eight counties, which are intended to be estimates of the underlying rates for these counties, thereby reflecting their intrinsic mortality regimes. The results of the case study are discussed. Although some judgment is needed with the method, it has sufficient transparency such that estimates can be replicated. While a definitive conclusion is not yet in, the results shown here support the argument that the method can produce reasonable estimates of the underlying infant mortality rates for small populations subject to high levels of stochastic variation and for which infant deaths are often not reported. In this regard, the method described here may assist the state of Mississippi and other jurisdictions in the generation of information about the health status of its small populations and their intrinsic mortality regimes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: It is important to estimate the treatment effect of interest accurately and precisely within the analysis of randomised controlled trials. One way to increase precision in the estimate and thus improve the power for randomised trials with continuous outcomes is through adjustment for pre-specified prognostic baseline covariates. Typically covariate adjustment is conducted using regression analysis, however recently, Inverse Probability of Treatment Weighting (IPTW) using the propensity score has been proposed as an alternative method. For a continuous outcome it has been shown that the IPTW estimator has the same large sample statistical properties as that obtained via analysis of covariance. However the performance of IPTW has not been explored for smaller population trials (< 100 participants), where precise estimation of the treatment effect has potential for greater impact than in larger samples.Methods: In this paper we explore the performance of the baseline adjusted treatment effect estimated using IPTW in smaller population trial settings. To do so we present a simulation study including a number of different trial scenarios with sample sizes ranging from 40 to 200 and adjustment for up to 6 covariates. We also re-analyse a paediatric eczema trial that includes 60 children.Results: In the simulation study the performance of the IPTW variance estimator was sub-optimal with smaller sample sizes. The coverage of 95% CI's was marginally below 95% for sample sizes < 150 and ≥ 100. For sample sizes < 100 the coverage of 95% CI's was always significantly below 95% for all covariate settings. The minimum coverage obtained with IPTW was 89% with n = 40. In comparison, regression adjustment always resulted in 95% coverage. The analysis of the eczema trial confirmed discrepancies between the IPTW and regression estimators in a real life small population setting.Conclusions: The IPTW variance estimator does not perform so well with small samples. Thus we caution against the use of IPTW in small sample settings when the sample size is less than 150 and particularly when sample size < 100. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Predictions about the consequences of a small population size on genetic and deleterious variation are fundamental to population genetics. As small populations are more affected by genetic drift, purifying selection acting against deleterious alleles is predicted to be less efficient, therefore increasing the risk of inbreeding depression. However, the extent to which small populations are subjected to genetic drift depends on the nature and time frame in which the bottleneck occurs. Domesticated species are an excellent model to investigate the consequences of population bottlenecks on genetic and deleterious variation in small populations. This is because their history is dominated by known bottlenecks associated with domestication, breed formation and intense selective breeding. Here, we use whole‐genome sequencing data from 97 chickens representing 39 traditional fancy breeds to directly examine the consequences of two types of bottlenecks for deleterious variation: the severe domestication bottleneck and the recent population decline accompanying breed formation. We find that recently bottlenecked populations have a higher proportion of deleterious variants relative to populations that have been kept at small population sizes since domestication. We also observe that long tracts of homozygous genotypes (runs of homozygosity) are proportionally more enriched in deleterious variants than the rest of the genome. This enrichment is particularly evident in recently bottlenecked populations, suggesting that homozygosity of these variants is likely to occur due to genetic drift and recent inbreeding. Our results indicate that the timing and nature of population bottlenecks can substantially shape the deleterious variation landscape in small populations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

El presente trabajo muestra la tipificación indirecta como método para estimaciones en el trabajo con poblaciones pequeñas. Inicialmente se explica cómo se puede identificar cuando estamos en presencia de una población pequeña y se argumenta por qué no es posible hacer estimaciones directas a partir de los datos observados. Se utilizan poblaciones reales como ejemplo, de las cuales no se muestra el nombre real porque el objetivo es elaborar un documento más explicativo y técnico que un trabajo que analice comportamientos de variables en una población. En un segundo momento en el texto se explica la tipificación indirecta y se describe cómo se realizan las estimaciones, así como los supuestos y las interpretaciones de las tasas ya tipificadas. Asimismo se van utilizando ejemplos que permiten seguir el proceso de manera práctica para finalmente alcanzar el resultado y compararlo con el resultado que se había alcanzado antes de aplicar la técnica. This article shows indirect standardization as a method for estimate indicators in small populations. First of all, it explains how it can be identified when we are in presence of a small population and it is argued why it is not possible to make direct estimates from the observed data. Real populations are used as examples, of which the real name is not shown because the objective is to elaborate a more explanatory and technical document than a work that analyzes behaviors of variables in a population. In a second moment, the text explains the indirect standardization and describes how the estimates are made, as well as the assumptions and interpretations of the already standardized rates. Likewise, examples are used to follow the process in a practical way to finally reach the result and compare it with the result that had been achieved before applying the technique.

The work deals with the progressive system social and economic changes to be implemented in the given historical period in Georgia, which are based on the fundamentally different approaches to the economic policy. This is to lead an intensive rise in the population’s income and in the national production output, mass employment and will ensure the formation of an environment targeted to a long-term development of entrepreneurship. A special role for the social-economic development of a society is ascribed to the use of inclusive forms of entrepreneurship, which conditions, in turn, the necessity of the cooperation sector development – an important component of the modern economy. The cooperation projects proper have the viability and sustainability basis, which, together with economic selfgovernment, is conditioned by the high level of production concentration. Only by mass production (through reduction of prime cost, generation of added value in the uniform production cycle, constant, effective rather than impulsive operation). It would be possible to ensure competitive production and accumulation of a definite part of revenues from its sales for reproduction, without which the economic system development and the spill–over effects could not be achieved. Therefore, cooperation projects have objective bases of real viability and sustainability. The advantage of the given model consists in a complex nature of the main directions, ensuring thus the best conditions for approaching the optimum functioning of enterprises. The future of the Georgian village depends on the correct analysis and assessment of the key problems, without which the establishment of progressive views concerning its development and the working out of relevant projects would be impossible. The finding out of an organizational and legal form, most complying with the social and economic mission of the State in the village most prioritized in terms of the governmental support is of vital importance in the proper policy establishment. The work deals with the impact of agricultural cooperation and cooperative agro credit system on the entrepreneurial development of the population directly engaged in the agricultural sector and agricultural production. It also considers the major grounds for the development of agricultural cooperation in Georgia, describes the current economic state of the local agricultural production and rural population and makes an analysis of the increased migration causes and the organizational setup of agricultural activity. Thanks to analysis of the current social-economic state in Georgia and the experience of the successful countries, it is proved that the entrepreneurial activation of the population is best achievable by an active support of the cooperative sector, which will be directly reflected in the reforms to be implemented in the country regions and by using diverse forms of cooperation will enable mass employment of the population and intensive raising of national production output. A special and irreplaceable role of agricultural cooperation in overcoming rural poverty, in the stepping up of the entrepreneurial activity of the population and in implementing the complex process of forming a healthy middle class has been justified. The legal regulation of the agricultural cooperation process and the industrial regulations represent the main component identifying the organizational form of an agricultural cooperative, because the introduction of these rules proper creates an economic environment, in which a high degree of return of the labour resources of the population directly engaged in the agricultural production rather than the prospects of gaining dividends from the material resources contributed to the share fund represents the factor determining the rural entrepreneurial activity. The industrial regulations of the cooperative system represent the basis for minimizing the production risks, rising economic efficiency, stability and viability. The Georgian village owing to disregard and improper social-economic policy carried out for years has found itself in a very humble state. Under such conditions, the recovery by the complex and dissimilar system without the respective protective mechanisms and support is impracticable. Therefore, the establishment of a qualitatively new policy of inclusive social economic development in respect to existing circumstances is a must, for which the inside and outside poverty-determining factors should be identified and the mechanisms of overcoming them be worked out. For conducting a viable national policy should be categorically defined that the hard economic standing of the rural population at the current stage is a problem of special urgency and the national policy should be mostly based on the given reality. For this, the special impact of agricultural cooperation and of cooperative agro credit system on the country’s development should be adequately thought out, and the State should, like many developed countries, undertake and fulfil the coordinating, organizing and supporting function of the sustainable and forced development of this system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study, we compared genetic gain, genetic variation, and the efficiency of converting variation into gain under different genomic selection scenarios with truncation or optimum contribution selection in a small dairy population by simulation. Breeding programs have to maximize genetic gain but also ensure sustainability by maintaining genetic variation. Numerous studies have shown that genomic selection increases genetic gain. Although genomic selection is a well-established method, small populations still struggle with choosing the most sustainable strategy to adopt this type of selection. We developed a simulator of a dairy population and simulated a model after the Slovenian Brown Swiss population with ∼10,500 cows. We compared different truncation selection scenarios by varying (1) the method of sire selection and their use on cows or bull-dams, and (2) selection intensity and the number of years a sire is in use. Furthermore, we compared different optimum contribution selection scenarios with optimization of sire selection and their usage. We compared scenarios in terms of genetic gain, selection accuracy, generation interval, genetic and genic variance, rate of coancestry, effective population size, and conversion efficiency. The results showed that early use of genomically tested sires increased genetic gain compared with progeny testing, as expected from changes in selection accuracy and generation interval. A faster turnover of sires from year to year and higher intensity increased the genetic gain even further but increased the loss of genetic variation per year. Although maximizing intensity gave the lowest conversion efficiency, faster turnover of sires gave an intermediate conversion efficiency. The largest conversion efficiency was achieved with the simultaneous use of genomically and progeny-tested sires that were used over several years. Compared with truncation selection, optimizing sire selection and their usage increased the conversion efficiency by achieving either comparable genetic gain for a smaller loss of genetic variation or higher genetic gain for a comparable loss of genetic variation. Our results will help breeding organizations implement sustainable genomic selection. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Empirical methodologies to assess innovation are generally econometric models using 'quantifiable' variables. However, the innovation system approach shows that innovation is a social process. Its analysis needs to consider the influence of humans on the innovation system actors' behaviours and decisions. This challenge is even more crucial when studying small infant industries in developing countries. Indeed, these industries face financial difficulties and bear high fixed costs and R&D expenses. Moreover, in developing countries, innovation is usually a synonym of minor rather than major innovation. Thus, methodologies to assess innovation in infant industries within developing countries must allow for going beyond the sole criterion of innovation performance in order to emphasize innovation potential. The aim of this paper, then, is to estimate innovation within the pharmaceutical industry in Tunisia. Still in its infancy, with only 32 firms, this industry responds to the above-described characteristics. The required data were collected via a qualitative survey covering all the firms in the industry under consideration. The survey was conducted using face-to-face interviews mainly with R&D directors. The results show promising hidden innovation potential within pharmaceutical firms in Tunisia, potential that quantitative methods would underestimate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent work has warned of a global crisis for terrestrial orchids and an urgent need for conservation. Pollinator declines have been documented globally, which may exacerbate the pollination limitations orchids experience. Small whorled pogonia (Isotria medeoloides) (Pursh) Raf. is a North American terrestrial orchid considered vulnerable by the International Union for the Conservation of Nature, threatened in Canada and USA, and endangered in 20 states. Like many orchids, it has specialized habitat needs and fragmented populations. Here, plants were monitored diurnally and nocturnally throughout the flowering period to evaluate arthropod activity that might impact pollination. Ultraviolet photographs and spectrophotometric data were collected on flowers. Canopy light penetrance was measured at plants. Seed capsule production was evaluated over time. In sum, 41 flowers were monitored for > 300 h, resulting in > 140,000 photographic frames of compiled video. In this extensive monitoring, 33 plant–arthropod interactions were detected, only one likely to facilitate self-pollination, and none that facilitated outcrossing. UV absorbance was identified on petals and sepals, which contrasted starkly with whorl UV reflectance, a previously undescribed form of floral display visible to pollinators. Flowering plants grew in higher light than vegetative ones. Capsule production was highly variable over time, making the species vulnerable to 'bad years' and low effective population size, given the low genetic diversity previously identified, and lack of outcrossing detected here. Imminent attention is warranted for species-level protection, consistent with needs of other terrestrial orchids. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We conducted DNA capture-recapture monitoring of grizzly bears (Ursus arctos) from 5 to 17 years after hunting was stopped in two adjacent but genetically distinct populations in southwestern British Columbia, Canada. We used spatial capture-recapture and non-spatial Pradel robust design modelling to estimate population density, trends, and the demographic components of population change for each population. The larger population had 21.5 bears/1000 km2 and was growing (λ Pradel = 1.02 ± 0.02 SE; λ secr = 1.01 ± 4.6 × 10−5 SE) following the cessation of hunting. The adjacent smaller population had 6.3 bears/1000 km2 and was likely declining (λ Pradel = 0.95 ± 0.03 SE; λ secr = 0.98 ± 0.02 SE). Estimates of apparent survival and apparent recruitment indicated that lower recruitment was the dominant factor limiting population growth in the smaller population. Factors limiting reproductive rates and population density could include poor habitat quality, particularly the abundance of high-energy foods, genetic Allee effects due to a long period of population isolation, or demographic effects affecting infanticide rates. The cessation of hunting was insufficient to promote population recovery for the low density, isolated population. Our research highlights the importance of considering mortality thresholds in addition to small population effects and habitat quality when recovering large carnivore populations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study evaluated the dependence of reliability and prediction bias on the prediction method, the contribution of including animals (bulls or cows), and the genetic relatedness, when including genotyped cows in the progeny-tested bull reference population. We performed genomic evaluation using a Japanese Holstein population, and assessed the accuracy of genomic enhanced breeding value (GEBV) for three production traits and 13 linear conformation traits. A total of 4564 animals for production traits and 4172 animals for conformation traits were genotyped using Illumina BovineSNP50 array. Single- and multi-step methods were compared for predicting GEBV in genotyped bull-only and genotyped bull-cow reference populations. No large differences in realized reliability and regression coefficient were found between the two reference populations; however, a slight difference was found between the two methods for production traits. The accuracy of GEBV determined by single-step method increased slightly when genotyped cows were included in the bull reference population, but decreased slightly by multi-step method. A validation study was used to evaluate the accuracy of GEBV when 800 additional genotyped bulls (POPbull) or cows (POPcow) were included in the base reference population composed of 2000 genotyped bulls. The realized reliabilities of POPbull were higher than those of POPcow for all traits. For the gain of realized reliability over the base reference population, the average ratios of POPbull gain to POPcow gain for production traits and conformation traits were 2.6 and 7.2, respectively, and the ratios depended on heritabilities of the traits. For regression coefficient, no large differences were found between the results for POPbull and POPcow. Another validation study was performed to investigate the effect of genetic relatedness between cows and bulls in the reference and test populations. The effect of genetic relationship among bulls in the reference population was also assessed. The results showed that it is important to account for relatedness among bulls in the reference population. Our studies indicate that the prediction method, the contribution ratio of including animals, and genetic relatedness could affect the prediction accuracy in genomic evaluation of Holstein cattle, when including genotyped cows in the reference population.