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Many studies have estimated the adverse effects of climate change on crop yields, however, this literature almost universally assumes a constant geographic distribution of crops in the future. Movement of growing areas to limit exposure to adverse climate conditions has been discussed as a theoretical adaptive response but has not previously been quantified or demonstrated at a global scale. Here, we assess how changes in rainfed crop area have already mediated growing season temperature trends for rainfed maize, wheat, rice, and soybean using spatially-explicit climate and crop area data from 1973 to 2012. Our results suggest that the most damaging impacts of warming on rainfed maize, wheat, and rice have been substantially moderated by the migration of these crops over time and the expansion of irrigation. However, continued migration may incur substantial environmental costs and will depend on socio-economic and political factors in addition to land suitability and climate.

Theories of biodiversity rest on several macroecological patterns describing the relationship between species abundance and diversity. A central problem is that all theories make similar predictions for these patterns despite disparate assumptions. A troubling implication is that these patterns may not reflect anything unique about organizational principles of biology or the functioning of ecological systems. To test this, we analyze five datasets from ecological, economic, and geological systems that describe the distribution of objects across categories in the United States. At the level of functional form (first-order effects), these patterns are not unique to ecological systems, indicating they may reveal little about biological process. However, we show that mechanism can be better revealed in the scale-dependency of first-order patterns (second-order effects). These results provide a roadmap for biodiversity theory to move beyond traditional patterns, and also suggest ways in which macroecological theory can constrain the dynamics of economic systems.

Despite being a fundamental aspect of biodiversity, little is known about what controls species range sizes. This is especially the case for hyperdiverse organisms such as plants. We use the largest botanical data set assembled to date to quantify geographical variation in range size for ~ 85 000 plant species across the New World. We assess prominent hypothesised range-size controls, finding that plant range sizes are codetermined by habitat area and long- and short-term climate stability. Strong short- and long-term climate instability in large parts of North America, including past glaciations, are associated with broad-ranged species. In contrast, small habitat areas and a stable climate characterise areas with high concentrations of small-ranged species in the Andes, Central America and the Brazilian Atlantic Rainforest region. The joint roles of area and climate stability strengthen concerns over the potential effects of future climate change and habitat loss on biodiversity.

Processing large collections of earth observation (EO) time-series, often petabyte-sized, such as NASA's Landsat and ESA's Sentinel missions, can be computationally prohibitive and costly. Despite their name, even the Analysis Ready Data (ARD) versions of such collections can rarely be used as direct input for modeling because of cloud presence and/or prohibitive storage size. Existing solutions for readily using these data are not openly available, are poor in performance, or lack flexibility. Addressing this issue, we developed TSIRF (Time-Series Iteration-free Reconstruction Framework), a computational framework that can be used to apply diverse time-series processing tasks, such as temporal aggregation and time-series reconstruction by simply adjusting the convolution kernel. As the first large-scale application, TSIRF was employed to process the entire Global Land Analysis and Discovery (GLAD) ARD Landsat archive, producing a cloud-free bi-monthly aggregated product. This process, covering seven Landsat bands globally from 1997 to 2022, with more than two trillion pixels and for each one a time-series of 156 samples in the aggregated product, required approximately 28 hours of computation using 1248 Intel ® Xeon ® Gold 6248R CPUs. The quality of the result was assessed using a benchmark dataset derived from the aggregated product and comparing different imputation strategies. The resulting reconstructed images can be used as input for machine learning models or to map biophysical indices. To further limit the storage size the produced data was saved as 8-bit Cloud-Optimized GeoTIFFs (COG). With the hosting of about 20 TB per band/index for an entire 30 m resolution bi-monthly historical time-series distributed as open data, the product enables seamless, fast, and affordable access to the Landsat archive for environmental monitoring and analysis applications., Competing Interests: Davide Consoli, Leandro Parente, Rolf Simoes, Murat Sahin, Xuemeng Tian, Martijn Witjes and Tomislav Hengl are employed by OpenGeoHub. Lindsey Sloat is employed by World Resources Institute (WRI)., (© 2024 Consoli et al.)