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BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: The severity of multiple sclerosis (MS) varies widely among individuals. Understanding the determinants of this heterogeneity will help clinicians optimize the management of MS. The aim of this study was to investigate the association between latitude of residence, ultraviolet B radiation exposure (UVB) and the severity of MS. METHOD(S): This observational study used the MSBase registry data. The included patients met the 2005 or 2010 McDonald diagnostic criteria for MS and had a minimum dataset recorded in the registry (date of birth, sex, clinic location, date of MS symptom onset, disease phenotype at baseline and censoring, and >=1 EDSS [Expanded Disability Status Scale] score recorded). The latitude of each study center and cumulative annualized UVB dose at study center (calculated from NASA's Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer) at ages 6 and 18 and the year of disability assessment were calculated. Disease severity was quantified with MS Severity Score (MSSS). Quadratic regression was used to model the associations between latitude, UVB and MSSS. RESULT(S): 46,128 patients contributing 453,208 visits and a cumulative follow-up of 351,196 patient-years (70% women, mean age 39.2+/-12, resident between latitudes 19degree35' and 56degree16') were included in this study. Latitude showed a non-linear association with MS severity. In latitudes greater than 40degree, more severe disease was associated with higher latitudes (beta=0.08, 95%CI: 0.04 to 0.12). For example, this translates into a mean difference of 1.3 points of MSSS between patients living in Madrid and Copenhagen. No such association was observed in latitudes <40degree (beta=-0.02, 95% CI:-0.06 to 0.03). The overall disability accrual was faster in those with a lower level of estimated UVB exposure before the age of 6 (beta=- 0.5, 95% CI: -0.6 to 0.4) and 18 years (beta=- 0.6, 95%CI:-0.7 to 0.4), as well as with lower life-time UVB exposure at the time of disability assessment (be

Background and purpose: The prevention of disability over the long term is the main treatment goal in multiple sclerosis (MS); however, randomized clinical trials evaluate only short-term treatment effects on disability. This study aimed to define criteria for 6-month confirmed disability progression events of MS with a high probability of resulting in sustained long-term disability worsening. Method(s): In total, 14,802 6-month confirmed disability progression events were identified in 8741 patients from the global MSBase registry. For each 6-month confirmed progression event (13,321 in the development and 1481 in the validation cohort), a sustained progression score was calculated based on the demographic and clinical characteristics at the time of progression that were predictive of long-term disability worsening. The score was externally validated in the Cladribine Tablets Treating Multiple Sclerosis Orally (CLARITY) trial. Result(s): The score was based on age, sex, MS phenotype, relapse activity, disability score and its change from baseline, number of affected functional system domains and worsening in six of the domains. In the internal validation cohort, a 61% lower chance of improvement was estimated with each unit increase in the score (hazard ratio 0.39, 95% confidence interval 0.29-0.52; discriminatory index 0.89). The proportions of progression events sustained at 5 years stratified by the score were 1: 72%; 2: 88%; 3: 94%; 4: 100%. The results of the CLARITY trial were confirmed for reduction of disability progression that was >88% likely to be sustained (events with score >1.5). Conclusion(s): Clinicodemographic characteristics of 6-month confirmed disability progression events identify those at high risk of sustained long-term disability. This knowledge will allow future trials to better assess the effect of therapy on long-term disability accrual.Copyright © 2022 The Authors. European Journal of Neurology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behal

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the rate of return of disease activity after cessation of multiple sclerosis (MS) disease-modifying therapy. METHOD(S): This was a retrospective cohort study from two large observational MS registries: MSBase and OFSEP. Patients with relapsing-remitting MS who had ceased a disease-modifying therapy and were followed up for the subsequent 12-months were included in the analysis. The primary study outcome was annualised relapse rate in the 12 months after disease-modifying therapy discontinuation stratified by patients who did, and did not, commence a subsequent therapy. The secondary endpoint was the predictors of first relapse and disability accumulation after treatment discontinuation. RESULT(S): 14,213 patients, with 18,029 eligible treatment discontinuation epochs, were identified for seven therapies. Annualised rates of relapse (ARR) started to increase 2-months after natalizumab cessation (month 2-4 ARR, 95% confidence interval): 0.47, 0.43-0.51). Commencement of a subsequent therapy within 2-4 months reduced the magnitude of disease reactivation (mean ARR difference: 0.15, 0.08-0.22). After discontinuation of fingolimod, rates of relapse increased overall (month 1-2 ARR: 0.80, 0.70-0.89), and stabilised faster in patients who started a new therapy within 1-2 months (mean ARR difference: 0.14, -0.01-0.29). Magnitude of disease reactivation for other therapies was low, but reduced further by commencement of another treatment 1-10 months after treatment discontinuation. Predictors of relapse were higher relapse rate in the year before cessation, female sex, younger age and higher EDSS. Commencement of a subsequent therapy reduced both the risk of relapse (HR 0.76, 95%CI 0.72-0.81) and disability accumulation (0.73, 0.65-0.80). CONCLUSION(S): The rate of disease reactivation after treatment cessation differs among MS treatments, with the peaks of relapse activity ranging from 1 to 10 months in untreated cohorts that discontinued different t

Background and purpose The prevention of disability over the long term is the main treatment goal in multiple sclerosis (MS); however, randomized clinical trials evaluate only short-term treatment effects on disability. This study aimed to define criteria for 6-month confirmed disability progression events of MS with a high probability of resulting in sustained long-term disability worsening. Methods In total, 14,802 6-month confirmed disability progression events were identified in 8741 patients from the global MSBase registry. For each 6-month confirmed progression event (13,321 in the development and 1481 in the validation cohort), a sustained progression score was calculated based on the demographic and clinical characteristics at the time of progression that were predictive of long-term disability worsening. The score was externally validated in the Cladribine Tablets Treating Multiple Sclerosis Orally (CLARITY) trial. Results The score was based on age, sex, MS phenotype, relapse activity, disability score and its change from baseline, number of affected functional system domains and worsening in six of the domains. In the internal validation cohort, a 61% lower chance of improvement was estimated with each unit increase in the score (hazard ratio 0.39, 95% confidence interval 0.29–0.52; discriminatory index 0.89). The proportions of progression events sustained at 5 years stratified by the score were 1: 72%; 2: 88%; 3: 94%; 4: 100%. The results of the CLARITY trial were confirmed for reduction of disability progression that was >88% likely to be sustained (events with score ˃1.5). Conclusions Clinicodemographic characteristics of 6-month confirmed disability progression events identify those at high risk of sustained long-term disability. This knowledge will allow future trials to better assess the effect of therapy on long-term disability accrual.

BACKGROUND: Natalizumab and fingolimod are used as high-efficacy treatments in relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis. Several observational studies comparing these two drugs have shown variable results, using different methods to control treatment indication bias and manage censoring. The objective of this empirical study was to elucidate the impact of methods of causal inference on the results of comparative effectiveness studies. METHODS: Data from three observational multiple sclerosis registries (MSBase, the Danish MS Registry and French OFSEP registry) were combined. Four clinical outcomes were studied. Propensity scores were used to match or weigh the compared groups, allowing for estimating average treatment effect for treated or average treatment effect for the entire population. Analyses were conducted both in intention-to-treat and per-protocol frameworks. The impact of the positivity assumption was also assessed. RESULTS: Overall, 5,148 relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis patients were included. In this well-powered sample, the 95% confidence intervals of the estimates overlapped widely. Propensity scores weighting and propensity scores matching procedures led to consistent results. Some differences were observed between average treatment effect for the entire population and average treatment effect for treated estimates. Intention-to-treat analyses were more conservative than per-protocol analyses. The most pronounced irregularities in outcomes and propensity scores were introduced by violation of the positivity assumption. CONCLUSIONS: This applied study elucidates the influence of methodological decisions on the results of comparative effectiveness studies of treatments for multiple sclerosis. According to our results, there are no material differences between conclusions obtained with propensity scores matching or propensity scores weighting given that a study is sufficiently powered, models are correctly specified and positivity assumption is ful

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the rate of return of disease activity after cessation of multiple sclerosis (MS) disease-modifying therapy. METHODS: This was a retrospective cohort study from 2 large observational MS registries: MSBase and OFSEP. Patients with relapsing-remitting MS who had ceased a disease-modifying therapy and were followed up for the subsequent 12 months were included in the analysis. The primary study outcome was annualized relapse rate in the 12 months after disease-modifying therapy discontinuation stratified by patients who did, and did not, commence a subsequent therapy. The secondary endpoint was the predictors of first relapse and disability accumulation after treatment discontinuation. RESULTS: A total of 14,213 patients, with 18,029 eligible treatment discontinuation epochs, were identified for 7 therapies. Annualized rates of relapse (ARRs) started to increase 2 months after natalizumab cessation (month 2-4 ARR 0.47, 95% CI 0.43-0.51). Commencement of a subsequent therapy within 2-4 months reduced the magnitude of disease reactivation (mean ARR difference: 0.15, 0.08-0.22). After discontinuation of fingolimod, rates of relapse increased overall (month 1-2 ARR: 0.80, 0.70-0.89) and stabilized faster in patients who started a new therapy within 1-2 months (mean ARR difference: 0.14, -0.01 to 0.29). The magnitude of disease reactivation for other therapies was low but reduced further by commencement of another treatment 1-10 months after treatment discontinuation. Predictors of relapse were a higher relapse rate in the year before cessation, female sex, younger age, and higher EDSS score. Commencement of a subsequent therapy reduced both the risk of relapse (HR 0.76, 95% CI 0.72-0.81) and disability accumulation (0.73, 0.65-0.80). DISCUSSION: The rate of disease reactivation after treatment cessation differs among MS treatments, with the peaks of relapse activity ranging from 1 to 10 months in untreated cohorts that discontinued di

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: The prevention of disability over the long term is the main treatment goal in multiple sclerosis (MS); however, randomized clinical trials evaluate only short-term treatment effects on disability. This study aimed to define criteria for 6-month confirmed disability progression events of MS with a high probability of resulting in sustained long-term disability worsening. METHODS: In total, 14,802 6-month confirmed disability progression events were identified in 8741 patients from the global MSBase registry. For each 6-month confirmed progression event (13,321 in the development and 1481 in the validation cohort), a sustained progression score was calculated based on the demographic and clinical characteristics at the time of progression that were predictive of long-term disability worsening. The score was externally validated in the Cladribine Tablets Treating Multiple Sclerosis Orally (CLARITY) trial. RESULTS: The score was based on age, sex, MS phenotype, relapse activity, disability score and its change from baseline, number of affected functional system domains and worsening in six of the domains. In the internal validation cohort, a 61% lower chance of improvement was estimated with each unit increase in the score (hazard ratio 0.39, 95% confidence interval 0.29-0.52; discriminatory index 0.89). The proportions of progression events sustained at 5 years stratified by the score were 1: 72%; 2: 88%; 3: 94%; 4: 100%. The results of the CLARITY trial were confirmed for reduction of disability progression that was >88% likely to be sustained (events with score ˃1.5). CONCLUSIONS: Clinicodemographic characteristics of 6-month confirmed disability progression events identify those at high risk of sustained long-term disability. This knowledge will allow future trials to better assess the effect of therapy on long-term disability accrual.

Background: Natalizumab and fingolimod are used as high-efficacy treatments in relapsing–remitting multiple sclerosis. Several observational studies comparing these two drugs have shown variable results, using different methods to control treatment indication bias and manage censoring. The objective of this empirical study was to elucidate the impact of methods of causal inference on the results of comparative effectiveness studies. Methods: Data from three observational multiple sclerosis registries (MSBase, the Danish MS Registry and French OFSEP registry) were combined. Four clinical outcomes were studied. Propensity scores were used to match or weigh the compared groups, allowing for estimating average treatment effect for treated or average treatment effect for the entire population. Analyses were conducted both in intention-to-treat and per-protocol frameworks. The impact of the positivity assumption was also assessed. Results: Overall, 5,148 relapsing–remitting multiple sclerosis patients were included. In this well-powered sample, the 95% confidence intervals of the estimates overlapped widely. Propensity scores weighting and propensity scores matching procedures led to consistent results. Some differences were observed between average treatment effect for the entire population and average treatment effect for treated estimates. Intention-to-treat analyses were more conservative than per-protocol analyses. The most pronounced irregularities in outcomes and propensity scores were introduced by violation of the positivity assumption. Conclusions: This applied study elucidates the influence of methodological decisions on the results of comparative effectiveness studies of treatments for multiple sclerosis. According to our results, there are no material differences between conclusions obtained with propensity scores matching or propensity scores weighting given that a study is sufficiently powered, models are correctly specified and positivity assumption is

Background We studied the prevalence of neuromyelitis optica spectrum disorder (NMOSD) and multiple sclerosis (MS) in Indigenous populations of Australia and New Zealand with the aim of assessing potential differences. Methods Cases of possible NMOSD and MS were collected from Australia and New Zealand. Clinical details, MR imaging, and serologic results were used to apply 2015 IPND diagnostic criteria for NMOSD and 2010 McDonald criteria for MS. Frequencies of self-determined ethnic ancestry were calculated for confirmed NMOSD, suspected NMOSD, and MS. Prevalence rates for NMOSD and MS according to ancestry were compared. Results There were 75 cases with NMOSD, 89 with suspected NMSOD, and 101 with MS. NMOSD cases were more likely to have Asian, Indigenous, or Other ancestry compared to suspected NMOSD or MS. There were no differences in the clinical phenotype of NMOSD seen in Indigenous compared to European ancestry populations. Per 100,000, the prevalence estimate for NMOSD in people with Māori ancestry was 1.50 (95% CI 0.52–2.49) which was similar to those with Asian ancestry 1.57 (95% CI 1.15–1.98). NMOSD prevalence in Australian Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander populations was 0.38 (95% CI 0.00–0.80) per 100,000. Conclusion The prevalence of NMOSD in the Māori population is similar to South East Asian countries, reflecting their historical origins. The prevalence of MS in this group is intermediate between those with South East Asian and European ancestry living in New Zealand. Both NMOSD and particularly MS appear to be uncommon in the Indigenous populations of Australia.

Background/objective: Observational clinical data from cladribine-treated patients with relapsing forms of multiple sclerosis (MS) were recorded in the Australian MS registry powered by the MSBase registry platform (5-year follow-up) and analysed to complement information from the pivotal cladribine clinical trials in MS. Method(s): A cohort of 90 cladribine-treated patients with follow-up data reported by treating physicians and recorded in the Australian MSBase registry (database lock February 2016) were examined. Clinical data included Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) scores, relapses and other disease-modifying drugs (DMDs) administered before and after cladribine treatment. Result(s): Mean age on starting cladribine was 47 years; mean age at MS onset was 34 years, and median baseline EDSS score was 5.25. Disability trajectories in patients with sufficient follow-up suggested an overall increasing trend prior to cladribine treatment which was reduced during the 2-year post-treatment. Approximately 80% of patients were EDSS progression-free, 65% remained relapse-free after 2 years and median time to next DMD was 1.7 years. Conclusion(s): These observational data suggest a disease-modifying effect in this cohort of relapsing MS patients characterised by older and more disabled patients. Since these data represent a single-arm cohort, clinical trials and larger comparative post-marketing studies are needed to validate and extend these findings.Copyright © The Author(s), 2020.

Background: Ocrelizumab (OCR) is a humanised anti-CD20+ monoclonal antibody approved for the treatment of primary progressive multiple sclerosis (PPMS), and relapsing forms of MS, including both relapsing-remitting (RRMS) and secondary progressive MS (SPMS) with relapses. Objective(s): In a real-world setting, to describe 1) baseline characteristics of patients with MS treated with OCR, 2) treatment pathway across lines of therapy up to initiation of OCR, and 3) initial clinical experience in patients with >=6 months follow-up data from OCR initiation. Method(s): Secondary data analysis using MSBase Registry data including patients with a confirmed diagnosis of MS and started OCR therapy within 3 months prior to or at time of MSBase eligible/ initial visit. Descriptive statistics were used to analyze baseline patient characteristics' recorded within 3 months of OCR initiation, including demographics, disease course and duration, prior disease modifying therapies (DMT), and EDSS. Occurrence of relapse was analyzed in patients with >=6 months follow-up data from OCR initiation. Result(s): As of 4th June 2020, MSBase included 2531 patients newly treated with OCR, of whom 1679 had an EDSS evaluation within 3 months of OCR start. There were 1185 patients with RRMS, 236 with SPMS, and 183 with PPMS. Median age at OCR initiation was 41.9 years, 49.5 years, to 50.1 years in RRMS, SPMS, and PPMS, respectively. Mean disease duration from symptom onset up to OCR initiation was longer in SPMS (19.7 years) than in RRMS (10.6 years) and PPMS (9.7 years). OCR was initiated as first line therapy in 17.5%, 5.5%, and 54.2% of RRMS, SPMS, and PPMS patients respectively. Most frequent previous DMT's in RRMS were fingolimod (25.7%) and natalizumab (23.5%). 693 patients with RRMS had >=6 months followup during OCR exposure. Of these, 643 remained relapse free (93%; 95% CI 86.0, 100.0) over a mean OCR exposure of 1.23 years. The annualized relapse rate (ARR) was 0.08 (95% CI 0.06- 0.10)

Background: Increasingly, people with relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS) are switched to highly effective disease-modifying therapies (DMTs) such as ocrelizumab. Objective(s): To determine predictors of relapse and disability progression when switching from another DMT to ocrelizumab. Method(s): Patients with RRMS who switched to ocrelizumab were identified from the MSBase Registry and grouped by prior disease-modifying therapy (pDMT; interferon-beta/glatiramer acetate, dimethyl fumarate, teriflunomide, fingolimod or natalizumab) and washout duration (<1 month, 1-2 months or 2-6 months). Survival analyses including multivariable Cox proportional hazard regression models were used to identify predictors of on-ocrelizumab relapse within 1 year, and 6-month confirmed disability progression (CDP). Result(s): After adjustment, relapse hazard when switching from fingolimod was greater than other pDMTs, but only in the first 3 months of ocrelizumab therapy (hazard ratio (HR) = 3.98, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.57-11.11, p = 0.004). The adjusted hazard for CDP was significantly higher with longer washout (2-6 m compared to <1 m: HR = 9.57, 95% CI = 1.92-47.64, p = 0.006). Conclusion(s): The risk of disability worsening during switch to ocrelizumab is reduced by short treatment gaps. Patients who cease fingolimod are at heightened relapse risk in the first 3 months on ocrelizumab. Prospective evaluation of strategies such as washout reduction may help optimise this switch.Copyright © The Author(s), 2021.

Background: Our current understanding of demographic and clinical modifiers of the effectiveness of multiple sclerosis (MS) therapies is limited. Objective(s): To assess whether patients' response to disease modifying therapies (DMT) in MS varies by disease activity (annualised relapse rate, presence of new MRI lesions), disability, age, MS duration or disease phenotype. Method(s): Using the international MSBase registry, we selected patients with MS followed for >=1 year, with >=3 visits, >=1 visit per year. Marginal structural models (MSMs) were used to compare the hazard ratios (HR) of 6-month confirmed worsening and improvement of disability (EDSS), and the incidence of relapses between treated and untreated periods. MSMs were continuously re-adjusted for patient age, sex, pregnancy, date, time from first symptom, prior relapse history, disability and MRI activity. Result(s): Among 23 687 patients with relapsing MS, those on DMT experienced 20% greater chance of disability improvement [HR 1.20 (95% CI 1.0-1.5)], 47% lower risk of disability worsening [HR 0.53 (0.39-0.71)] and 51% reduction in relapses [HR 0.49 (0.43-0.55)]. The effect of DMT on relapses and EDSS worsening was attenuated with longer MS duration and higher prior relapse rate. The effect of DMT on EDSS improvement and relapses was more evident in low EDSS categories. DMT was associated with 51% EDSS improvement in patients without new MRI lesions [HR 1.51 (1.00-2.28)] compared to 4% in those with MRI activity [HR 1.04 (0.88-1.24)]. Among 26329 participants with relapsing or progressive MS, DMT was associated with 25% reduction in EDSS worsening and 42% reduction in relapses in patients with relapsing MS [HR 0.75 (0.65-0.86) and HR 0.58 (CI 0.54-62), respectively], while evidence for such beneficial effects of treatment in patients with progressive MS was not found [HR 1.11 (0.91-1.46) and HR 1.16 (0.91-1.46), respectively]. Conclusion(s): DMTs are associated with reduction in relapse frequency, pro

Introduction: Ocrelizumab, a monoclonal antibody targeted against CD20+ B cells, has become a popular treatment for relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (MS). The effectiveness of ocrelizumab compared to other treatments is however unknown. Aim(s): To compare the effectiveness of ocrelizumab with interferon-beta, fingolimod and natalizumab in relapsing-remitting MS. Method(s): Using the MSBase registry, we identified patients with relapsing-remitting MS treated for >=6 months with ocrelizumab, interferon- beta (interferon beta-1a, interferon beta-1b subcutaneous or interferon beta-1b intramuscular), fingolimod or natalizumab. All patients required >12-month pre-treatment follow up and the minimum dataset. Patients with comparable baseline characteristics were matched with propensity score on age, sex, MS duration, EDSS, prior relapse rate, prior therapy, disease activity, MRI lesion burden (missing values imputed), reason for discontinuation of preceding therapy (imputed) and country. Annualised rate of relapses (ARR) and cumulative hazard of relapses were compared in pairwise-censored groups. Result(s): 106 patients treated with ocrelizumab were matched with 209 patients on interferon therapies with a mean age of 39 years, 0.8 relapses per year and mean EDSS of 2.4-2.5. Over a pairwise-censored mean follow up of 1.3 years, ocrelizumab was associated with lower relapse rates (ARR 0.08 vs 0.27, p<0.001) and lower risk of relapse (HR 0.30, 95%CI 0.15-0.57) than interferon-beta. 297 patients treated with ocrelizumab were matched with 811 fingolimod-treated patients with a mean age of 41 years, 0.6 relapses per year and mean EDSS of 2.7-2.8. Over a pairwisecensored mean follow up of 1.5 years, ocrelizumab was associated with lower relapse rates (ARR 0.03 vs 0.14, p<0.001) and lower risk of relapse than fingolimod (HR 0.21, 0.13-0.32). 262 ocrelizumab- treated patients were matched with 343 natalizumab treated patients with a mean age of 39 years, 0.8 relapses per year

Objective: To assess whether patients' response to disease modifying therapies (DMT) in multiple sclerosis (MS) varies by disease activity (annualised relapse rate, presence of new MRI lesions), disability, age, MS duration or disease phenotype. Background(s): Our understanding of demographic and clinical modifiers of the effectiveness of MS therapies is limited. Design/Methods: Using the international MSBase registry, we selected patients with MS followed for >=1 year, with >=3 visits, >=1 visit per year. Marginal structural models were used to compare the hazard ratios (HR) of 6-month confirmed worsening and improvement of disability (EDSS), and the incidence of relapses between treated and untreated periods. Models were continuously re-adjusted for patient age, sex, pregnancy, date, time from first symptom, prior relapse history, disability and MRI activity. Result(s): Among 23687 patients with relapsing MS, those on DMTs experienced 48% reduction in relapse incidence [HR=0.52 (0.44-0.61)], 48% lower risk of disability worsening [HR=0.52 (0.38-0.71)] and 33% greater chance of disability improvement [HR=1.33 (95%CI 1.0-1.5)]. The effect of DMTs on EDSS worsening and improvement and the risk of relapses was attenuated with more severe disability. The effect of DMTs on reducing relapses declined with higher prior relapse rate and in patients with prior cerebral MRI activity. Among 26329 participants with relapsing or progressive MS, DMTs were associated with 25% reduction in EDSS worsening and 42% reduction in relapses in patients with relapsing MS [HR=0.75 (0.65-0.86) and HR=0.58 (0.54-62), respectively], while evidence for such beneficial effects of treatment in patients with progressive MS was not found [HR=1.11 (0.91-1.46) and HR=1.16 (0.91-1.46), respectively]. Conclusion(s): DMTs are associated with reduction in relapse frequency, progression of disability, and increased chance of recovery from disability. The DMTs are most effective among patients with lower

Objective: The aim of this study was to investigate the association between latitude of residence, ultraviolet B radiation exposure (UVB) and the severity of multiple sclerosis (MS). Background(s): Severity of (MS) varies widely among individuals. Understanding of determinants of this heterogeneity will help clinicians optimize the management of MS in individual patients. Design/Methods: This observational study used the global MSBase registry. Disease severity was quantified with MS Severity Score (MSSS, a decile of disability relative to a normative cohort with similar disease duration). The latitude of each study center (stratified by hemisphere) and cumulative annualized UVB dose at study center (calculated from from NASA's Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer) at ages 6 and 18 and the year of disability assessment were calculated. Quadratic regression was used to model the associations between latitude, UVB and MSSS. Result(s): 46,128 patients (70% women, mean age 39+/-12, resident between latitudes 19degree35' and 56degree16', cumulative follow-up 351,196 patient-years) were included. Latitude showed a non-linear association with MS severity. Above 40degree of latitude, more severe disease was associated with higher latitudes (beta= 0.08, 95%CI: 0.04, 0.12). For example, this translates into a mean difference of 1.3 points of MSSS between patients living in Madrid and Copenhagen. No such association was observed in latitudes <40degree (beta= 0.02, 95%CI: 0.06, 0.03). The overall disability accrual was faster in those with a lower level of estimated UVB exposure before the age of 6 (beta= 0.5, 95%CI: 0.6, 0.4) and 18 years (beta= 0.6, 95%CI: 0.7, 0.4) as well as with lower life-time UVB exposure at the time of disability assessment (beta= 1.0, 95%CI: 1.1, 0.9). Conclusion(s): In temperate zones, MS severity is associated with latitude. This association is mainly, but not exclusively, driven by UVB exposure. Thus, UVB exposure contributes to both MS susceptibility a

Background: Some cohort studies have reported similar onset age and disability accrual in primary and secondary progressive MS (PPMS, SPMS); others have reported later onset and faster disability accrual in SPMS. Comparisons are complicated by differences in baseline disability and exposure to disease-modifying therapies (DMT), and by lack of a standardized definition of SPMS. Objective(s): We compared hazards of disability accrual in PPMS and SPMS patients from the MSBase cohort using multivariable Cox models, applying validated diagnostic criteria for SPMS (Lorscheider et al., Brain 2016). Method(s): Inclusion required adult-onset progressive MS; >= 3 recorded Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) scores; and, for SPMS, initial records with EDSS <= 3 to allow objective identification of SPMS conversion. Phenotypes were subgrouped as active (PPMS-A, SPMS-A) if >= 1 progressive-phase relapse was recorded, and inactive (PPMS-N, SPMS-N) otherwise. Disability accrual was defined by sustained EDSS increases confirmed over >= 6 months. Hazard ratios (HR) for disability accrual were obtained using Andersen-Gill Cox models, adjusted for sex and time-varying age, disability, visit frequency, and proportion of time on DMT or immunosuppressive therapy. Sensitivity analyses were performed using (1) PPMS and SPMS diagnosed since 1995, and (2) physician-diagnosed SPMS. Cumulative probability of reaching EDSS >= 7 (wheelchair required) was assessed (Kaplan-Meier). Result(s): 5461 patients were included (1257 PPMS-N; 1308 PPMS-A; 1731 SPMS-N; 1165 SPMS-A). Age at progression onset was older in SPMS than PPMS (47.2 +/- 10.2, vs. 41.5 +/- 10.7 [mean +/- SD]), and in the inactive subgroups of each phenotype. Hazard of disability accrual was decreased in SPMS relative to PPMS (HR 0.85; 95% CI 0.78-0.92); decreased by proportion of time on DMT (HR 0.99 per 10% increment; 0.98-0.99); and higher in males (1.18; 1.12-1.25). Relative to PPMS-N, hazard was decreased in SPMS-A (0.79; 0.71

Neuromyelitis optica spectrum disorder (NMOSD) and multiple sclerosis (MS) are inflammatory diseases of the CNS. Overlap in the clinical and MRI features of NMOSD and MS means that distinguishing these conditions can be difficult. With the aim of evaluating the diagnostic utility of MRI features in distinguishing NMOSD from MS, we have conducted a cross-sectional analysis of imaging data and developed predictive models to distinguish the two conditions. NMOSD and MS MRI lesions were identified and defined through a literature search. Aquaporin-4 (AQP4) antibody positive NMOSD cases and age- and sex-matched MS cases were collected. MRI of orbits, brain and spine were reported by at least two blinded reviewers. MRI brain or spine was available for 166/168 (99%) of cases. Longitudinally extensive (OR = 203), “bright spotty” (OR = 93.8), whole (axial; OR = 57.8) or gadolinium (Gd) enhancing (OR = 28.6) spinal cord lesions, bilateral (OR = 31.3) or Gd-enhancing (OR = 15.4) optic nerve lesions, and nucleus tractus solitarius (OR = 19.2), periaqueductal (OR = 16.8) or hypothalamic (OR = 7.2) brain lesions were associated with NMOSD. Ovoid (OR = 0.029), Dawson's fingers (OR = 0.031), pyramidal corpus callosum (OR = 0.058), periventricular (OR = 0.136), temporal lobe (OR = 0.137) and T1 black holes (OR = 0.154) brain lesions were associated with MS. A score-based algorithm and a decision tree determined by machine learning accurately predicted more than 85% of both diagnoses using first available imaging alone. We have confirmed NMOSD and MS specific MRI features and combined these in predictive models that can accurately identify more than 85% of cases as either AQP4 seropositive NMOSD or MS

BACKGROUND: Natalizumab and fingolimod were the first preparations recommended for disease breakthrough in priorly treated relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis. Of three published head-to-head studies two showed that natalizumab is the more effective to prevent relapses and EDSS worsening. METHODS: By re-analyzing original published results from MSBase, France, and Denmark using uniform methodologies, we aimed at identifying the effects of differences in methodology, in the MS-populations, and at re-evaluating the differences in effectiveness between the two drugs. We gained access to copies of the individual amended databases and pooled all data. We used uniform inclusion/exclusion criteria and statistical methods with Inverse Probability Treatment Weighting. RESULTS: The pooled analyses comprised 968 natalizumab- and 1479 fingolimod treated patients. The on-treatment natalizumab/fingolimod relapse rate ratio was 0.77 (p=0.004). The hazard ratio (HR) for a first relapse was 0.82 (p=0.030), and the HR for sustained EDSS improvement was 1.4 (p=0.009). There were modest differences between each of the original published studies and the replication study, but the conclusions of the three original studies remained unchanged: in two of them natalizumab was more effective, but in the third there was no difference between natalizumab and fingolimod. CONCLUSION: The results were largely invariant to the epidemiological and statistical methods but differed between the MS populations. Generally, the advantage of natalizumab was confirmed.

Objective To test the hypothesis that immunotherapy prevents long-term disability in relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (MS), we modeled disability outcomes in 14,717 patients. Methods We studied patients from MSBase followed for ≥1 year, with ≥3 visits, ≥1 visit per year, and exposed to MS therapy, and a subset of patients with ≥15-year follow-up. Marginal structural models were used to compare the cumulative hazards of 12-month confirmed increase and decrease in disability, Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) step 6, and the incidence of relapses between treated and untreated periods. Marginal structural models were continuously readjusted for patient age, sex, pregnancy, date, disease course, time from first symptom, prior relapse history, disability, and MRI activity. Results A total of 14,717 patients were studied. During the treated periods, patients were less likely to experience relapses (hazard ratio 0.60, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.43–0.82, p = 0.0016), worsening of disability (0.56, 0.38–0.82, p = 0.0026), and progress to EDSS step 6 (0.33, 0.19–0.59, p = 0.00019). Among 1,085 patients with ≥15-year follow-up, the treated patients were less likely to experience relapses (0.59, 0.50–0.70, p = 10−9) and worsening of disability (0.81, 0.67–0.99, p = 0.043). Conclusion Continued treatment with MS immunotherapies reduces disability accrual by 19%–44% (95% CI 1%–62%), the risk of need of a walking aid by 67% (95% CI 41%–81%), and the frequency of relapses by 40–41% (95% CI 18%–57%) over 15 years. This study provides evidence that disease-modifying therapies are effective in improving disability outcomes in relapsing-remitting MS over the long term. Classification of Evidence This study provides Class IV evidence that, for patients with relapsing-remitting MS, long-term exposure to immunotherapy prevents neurologic disability.

(Neuron 101, 365–369; February 6, 2019) In the original publication of this NeuroView, the member list for the Australian Brain Alliance was omitted. This has now been corrected online. Neuron apologizes for the error.

Objective: Using global MSBase registry, this study establishes 6-month confirmed disability progression events as indicators of long-term disability worsening suitable for use in randomized clinical trials in multiple sclerosis (MS). Background(s): Randomized clinical trials evaluate short-term treatment effect on disability in the form of 3-6-month confirmed disability progression, but whether these translate into long-term disability outcomes is unknown. Design/Methods: A Cox proportional hazards model identified associations between patients' demographic and clinical characteristics and the probability of recovery from disability progression events. The coefficients from this model were used to calculate a sustained progression score, which was evaluated in a validation cohort and applied to a trial cohort. Result(s): 902 patients (development cohort), patient characteristics at the time of progression associated with lower probability of subsequent improvement were age (hazard ratio (HR)=0.98), primary progressive (HR=0.37) and progressive-relapsing (HR=0.36) MS, expanded disability status scale score >=6 (HR=0.71) and its change from baseline (HR=0.67), number of affected functional system scores (HR=0.92) and pyramidal (HR=0.79) functional system score (p<0.05). The strength of the association with pyramidal score decreased with time (HR=1.01). A relapse within previous month (HR=1.46) and worsening in sensory functional system score (HR=1.17) were associated with higher probability of improvement after progression. The sustained progression score (range 0.39-4.79) in the validation cohort with 1,271 progression events, estimated a 53% lower chance of improvement for each unit increase in the score (HR=0.47). The proportions of progression events sustained at 5 years stratified by the score were 1: 68%, 2: 79%, 3: 94%, 4: 100%. The progression scores were then applied to the CLARITY trial data. Conclusion(s): Estimate of the probability of disability progress

Introduction: Ocrelizumab (OCR) is a humanised anti-CD20+ monoclonal antibody approved for the treatment of primary progressive multiple sclerosis (PPMS), and relapsing forms of MS, including both relapsing-remitting (RRMS) and secondary progressive (SPMS). Objective(s): In a real-world setting, to describe 1) baseline characteristics of patients with MS treated with OCR, 2) treatment pathway across lines of therapy up to initiation of OCR, and 3) initial clinical experience in patients with >=6 months follow-up data from OCR initiation Methods: Secondary data analysis using MSBase Registry data including patients with a confirmed diagnosis of MS and newly treated with OCR after regulatory approval. Descriptive statistics were used to analyze baseline patients' characteristics recorded within 3 months prior to or at time of OCR initiation, including demographics, disease course and duration, prior disease modifying therapies (DMT), and EDSS. Occurrence of relapse was analyzed in patients with >=6 months follow-up data since OCR initiation. Result(s): As of 6th March 2019, MSBase included 1216 patients newly treated with OCR (15 countries, mainly from across Europe and Australia), 882 patients with RRMS, 160 with SPMS, and 174 with PPMS. Median age at OCR initiation varied from 42.8 years, 49.2 years, to 52.4 years in patients with RRMS, SPMS, and PPMS, respectively. Most RRMS and SPMS patients were female (69.6% and 64.4%) by contrast to PPMS patients (43.1% females). Median disease duration from symptom onset up to OCR initiation was longer in SPMS (19.7 years) than in RRMS (9.7 years) and PPMS (8.7 years). Median EDSS at OCR start was 3.0, 6.5, and 6.0 in RRMS, SPMS, and PPMS, respectively. OCR was initiated as first line therapy in 11.2%, 3.1%, and 58.1% of RRMS, SPMS, and PPMS patients respectively. 583 RRMS patients initiated OCR switching from another DMT, primarily natalizumab (37.9%) and fingolimod (34.1%). 234 patients with RRMS had >=6 months follow-up dur

Background: Cladribine has recently been introduced to the armamentarium of therapies for relapsing MS. Objective(s): To report relapses and disability in patients who were treated with cladribine as part of a product familiarisation program in Australia in 2011. Method(s): Patients exposed to oral cladribine, cumulative dose 1.75 mg/kg, between January and July 2011, enrolled in the MSBase registry were included. Incidence of relapses and disability (EDSS) were reported by the patients' treating physicians and recorded in the MSBase database. Result(s): This cohort of patients were older and had a higher EDSS at commencing oral cladribine than patients in the clinical trials of oral cladribine. Mean age at commencing cladribine was 47 years, age at MS onset was 34 years, duration of MS was 13 years and median EDSS score was 5.25. Disability trajectories suggested an overall increasing trend prior to treatment with cladribine, which was reduced during the 2 years following treatment. Based on EDSS scores, approximately 80% of patients were free from progression, 65% of patients remained relapse free after 2 years and median time to next DMT was 1.7 years. Conclusion(s): The data from the Australian oral cladribine product familiarisation program complement the information form clinical trials and a head-to-head comparison of observational data. This information suggests cladribine is associated with reduction in the rate of disability worsening for at least two years from the initial treatment administration. The studied data are limited and representative post-marketing studies, including safety surveillance, are needed.

Introduction: Prevention of disability over the long-term is currently the main treatment goal in multiple sclerosis (MS). Randomized clinical trials evaluate short-term treatment effect on disability in the form of 3-6-month confirmed disability progression. Using global MSBase registry, this study establishes 6-month confirmed disability progression events as indicators of long-term disability worsening suitable for use in randomized clinical trials. Method(s): A Cox proportional hazards model in the development cohort identified associations between demographic and clinical variables at the time of disability progression and the probability of an event not being sustained in the future. The coefficients from this model were used to calculate a sustained progression score. Its association with the risk that an event will be sustained over timewas evaluated with a Cox model in the validation cohort. Result(s): 11,435 confirmed progression events identified in 6,902 patients constituted the development cohort. Patient characteristics at the time of progression associated with lower probability of subsequent improvement were age (hazard ratio (HR)=0.98), primary progressive (HR=0.37) and progressive-relapsing (HR=0.36) MS, expanded disability status scale score >=6 (HR=0.71) and its change from baseline (HR=0.67), number of affected functional system scores (HR=0.92) and pyramidal(HR=0.79) functional system score (p< 0.05). The strength of the association with pyramidal score decreased with time(HR=1.01). Occurrence of a relapse within previous month (HR=1.46) and worsening in sensory functional system score (HR=1.17) were associated with higher probability of improvement after progression. The associations were confirmed by two sensitivity analyses. The sustained progression score, ranged 0.39-4.79 in the validation cohort with 1,271 progression events, estimated a 53% lower chance of improvement with each unit increase in the score (HR=0.47, 95% confidence interval

A. Background and Goals: It is now well known that patient medical history (or trajectories) is of crucial importance for both prognosis and optimal treatment selection for Multiple Sclerosis (MS) patients. This longitudinal data is nowadays being collected more systematically and its availability in patient registries opens the way towards precision medicine in MS. However, this information is very challenging to process computationally. By their observational nature, longitudinal patient data are scarcely and irregularly observed (i.e. only few observations are scattered over the whole patient history). Several works have recently attempted to address this issue by substituting full patient history with summary statistics in the modelling (i.e. using metrics such as the maximum and minimum disability score over the patient history as a proxy for the full medical trajectory). This strategy potentially discards relevant prognostic information. In this work, we present a method capable of handling the full information about disease history and its value for individual prognostic modelling. B. Method(s): We propose a novel statistical method relying on state-of-the-art machine learning models (Bayesian Probabilistic Tensor Factorisation, BPTF). Due to its generative nature, this method is able to process the full MS patient trajectories as input to deliver predictions. We infer the tensor decomposition (rank 70) with Gibbs sampling. To illustrate the performances of our approach, we consider the challenging task of predicting patient worsening within 2 years from current visit using 3 years clinical history. Patient worsening was defined with the 2 strata definition of disability progression as in Kalincik et al. (Brain, 2015). Available longitudinal data include Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS), magnetic resonance imaging and relapses. Patient static covariates include, among others, age at onset, gender, disease course and first observed EDSS. C. Result(s): W

Neuromyelitis optica spectrum disorders (NMOSD) and multiple sclerosis (MS) show overlap in their clinical features. We performed an analysis of relapses with the aim of determining differences between the two conditions. Cases of NMOSD and age- and sex-matched MS controls were collected from across Australia and New Zealand. Demographic and clinical information, including relapse histories, were recorded using a standard questionnaire. There were 75 cases of NMOSD and 101 MS controls. There were 328 relapses in the NMOSD cases and 375 in MS controls. Spinal cord and optic neuritis attacks were the most common relapses in both NMOSD and MS. Optic neuritis (p < 0.001) and area postrema relapses (P = 0.002) were more common in NMOSD and other brainstem attacks were more common in MS (p < 0.001). Prior to age 30 years, attacks of optic neuritis were more common in NMOSD than transverse myelitis. After 30 this pattern was reversed. Relapses in NMOSD were more likely to be treated with acute immunotherapies and were less likely to recover completely. Analysis by month of relapse in NMOSD showed a trend toward reduced risk of relapse in February to April compared to a peak in November to January (P = 0.065). Optic neuritis and transverse myelitis are the most common types of relapse in NMOSD and MS. Optic neuritis tends to occur more frequently in NMOSD prior to the age of 30, with transverse myelitis being more common thereafter. Relapses in NMOSD were more severe. A seasonal bias for relapses in spring-summer may exist in NMOSD.

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVE: Observational clinical data from cladribine-treated patients with relapsing forms of multiple sclerosis (MS) were recorded in the Australian MS registry powered by the MSBase registry platform (5-year follow-up) and analysed to complement information from the pivotal cladribine clinical trials in MS. METHODS: A cohort of 90 cladribine-treated patients with follow-up data reported by treating physicians and recorded in the Australian MSBase registry (database lock February 2016) were examined. Clinical data included Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) scores, relapses and other disease-modifying drugs (DMDs) administered before and after cladribine treatment. RESULTS: Mean age on starting cladribine was 47 years; mean age at MS onset was 34 years, and median baseline EDSS score was 5.25. Disability trajectories in patients with sufficient follow-up suggested an overall increasing trend prior to cladribine treatment which was reduced during the 2-year post-treatment. Approximately 80% of patients were EDSS progression-free, 65% remained relapse-free after 2 years and median time to next DMD was 1.7 years. CONCLUSION: These observational data suggest a disease-modifying effect in this cohort of relapsing MS patients characterised by older and more disabled patients. Since these data represent a single-arm cohort, clinical trials and larger comparative post-marketing studies are needed to validate and extend these findings.