Search

In small area estimation different data sources are integrated in order to produce reliable estimates of target parameters (e.g., a mean or a proportion) for a collection of small subsets (areas) of a finite population. Regression models such as the linear mixed effects model or M-quantile regression are often used to improve the precision of survey sample estimates by leveraging auxiliary information for which means or totals are known at the area level. In many applications, the unit-level linkage of records from different sources is probabilistic and potentially error-prone. In this paper, we present adjustments of the small area predictors that are based on either the linear mixed effects model or M-quantile regression to account for the presence of linkage error. These adjustments are developed from a two-component mixture model that hinges on the assumption of independence of the target and auxiliary variable given incorrect linkage. Estimation and inference is based on composite likelihoods and machinery revolving around the Expectation-Maximization Algorithm. For each of the two regression methods, we propose modified small area predictors and approximations for their mean squared errors. The empirical performance of the proposed approaches is studied in both design-based and model-based simulations that include comparisons to a variety of baselines., Comment: total: 46 pages, main: 33 pages, references: 4 pages, technical appendix: 9 pages

Data sets obtained from linking multiple files are frequently affected by mismatch error, as a result of non-unique or noisy identifiers used during record linkage. Accounting for such mismatch error in downstream analysis performed on the linked file is critical to ensure valid statistical inference. In this paper, we present a general framework to enable valid post-linkage inference in the challenging secondary analysis setting in which only the linked file is given. The proposed framework covers a wide selection of statistical models and can flexibly incorporate additional information about the underlying record linkage process. Specifically, we propose a mixture model for pairs of linked records whose two components reflect distributions conditional on match status, i.e., correct match or mismatch. Regarding inference, we develop a method based on composite likelihood and the EM algorithm as well as an extension towards a fully Bayesian approach. Extensive simulations and several case studies involving contemporary record linkage applications corroborate the effectiveness of our framework., Comment: 34 pages not counting references and appendix

We propose a new method that uses tensor completion to estimate causal effects with multivariate longitudinal data, data in which multiple outcomes are observed for each unit and time period. Our motivation is to estimate the number of COVID-19 fatalities prevented by government mandates such as travel restrictions, mask-wearing directives, and vaccination requirements. In addition to COVID-19 fatalities, we observe related outcomes such as the number of fatalities from other diseases and injuries. The proposed method arranges the data as a tensor with three dimensions (unit, time, and outcome) and uses tensor completion to impute the missing counterfactual outcomes. We first prove that under general conditions, combining multiple outcomes using the proposed method improves the accuracy of counterfactual imputations. We then compare the proposed method to other approaches commonly used to evaluate COVID-19 mandates. Our main finding is that other approaches overestimate the effect of masking-wearing directives and that mask-wearing directives were not an effective alternative to travel restrictions. We conclude that while the proposed method can be applied whenever multivariate longitudinal data are available, we believe it is particularly timely as governments increasingly rely on longitudinal data to choose among policies such as mandates during public health emergencies.

Suppose that we have a regression problem with response variable Y in $\mathbb{R}^d$ and predictor X in $\mathbb{R}^d$, for $d \geq 1$. In permuted or unlinked regression we have access to separate unordered data on X and Y, as opposed to data on (X,Y)-pairs in usual regression. So far in the literature the case $d=1$ has received attention, see e.g., the recent papers by Rigollet and Weed [Information & Inference, 8, 619--717] and Balabdaoui et al. [J. Mach. Learn. Res., 22(172), 1--60]. In this paper, we consider the general multivariate setting with $d \geq 1$. We show that the notion of cyclical monotonicity of the regression function is sufficient for identification and estimation in the permuted/unlinked regression model. We study permutation recovery in the permuted regression setting and develop a computationally efficient and easy-to-use algorithm for denoising based on the Kiefer-Wolfowitz [Ann. Math. Statist., 27, 887--906] nonparametric maximum likelihood estimator and techniques from the theory of optimal transport. We provide explicit upper bounds on the associated mean squared denoising error for Gaussian noise. As in previous work on the case $d = 1$, the permuted/unlinked setting involves slow (logarithmic) rates of convergence rooting in the underlying deconvolution problem. Numerical studies corroborate our theoretical analysis and show that the proposed approach performs at least on par with the methods in the aforementioned prior work in the case $d = 1$ while achieving substantial reductions in terms of computational complexity., Comment: 38 pages, 6 figures

In the analysis of data sets consisting of (X, Y)-pairs, a tacit assumption is that each pair corresponds to the same observation unit. If, however, such pairs are obtained via record linkage of two files, this assumption can be violated as a result of mismatch error rooting, for example, in the lack of reliable identifiers in the two files. Recently, there has been a surge of interest in this setting under the term "Shuffled data" in which the underlying correct pairing of (X, Y)-pairs is represented via an unknown index permutation. Explicit modeling of the permutation tends to be associated with substantial overfitting, prompting the need for suitable methods of regularization. In this paper, we propose a flexible exponential family prior on the permutation group for this purpose that can be used to integrate various structures such as sparse and locally constrained shuffling. This prior turns out to be conjugate for canonical shuffled data problems in which the likelihood conditional on a fixed permutation can be expressed as product over the corresponding (X,Y)-pairs. Inference is based on the EM algorithm in which the intractable E-step is approximated by the Fisher-Yates algorithm. The M-step is shown to admit a significant reduction from $n^2$ to $n$ terms if the likelihood of (X,Y)-pairs has exponential family form as in the case of generalized linear models. Comparisons on synthetic and real data show that the proposed approach compares favorably to competing methods., Comment: 25 pages, 5 figures

Identification of matching records in multiple files can be a challenging and error-prone task. Linkage error can considerably affect subsequent statistical analysis based on the resulting linked file. Several recent papers have studied post-linkage linear regression analysis with the response variable in one file and the covariates in a second file from the perspective of the "Broken Sample Problem" and "Permuted Data". In this paper, we present an extension of this line of research to exponential family response given the assumption of a small to moderate number of mismatches. A method based on observation-specific offsets to account for potential mismatches and $\ell_1$-penalization is proposed, and its statistical properties are discussed. We also present sufficient conditions for the recovery of the correct correspondence between covariates and responses if the regression parameter is known. The proposed approach is compared to established baselines, namely the methods by Lahiri-Larsen and Chambers, both theoretically and empirically based on synthetic and real data. The results indicate that substantial improvements over those methods can be achieved even if only limited information about the linkage process is available., Comment: 51 pages, 7 figures

Federated learning (FL) is a machine learning paradigm where a shared central model is learned across distributed edge devices while the training data remains on these devices. Federated Averaging (FedAvg) is the leading optimization method for training non-convex models in this setting with a synchronized protocol. However, the assumptions made by FedAvg are not realistic given the heterogeneity of devices. In particular, the volume and distribution of collected data vary in the training process due to different sampling rates of edge devices. The edge devices themselves also vary in their available communication bandwidth and system configurations, such as memory, processor speed, and power requirements. This leads to vastly different training times as well as model/data transfer times. Furthermore, availability issues at edge devices can lead to a lack of contribution from specific edge devices to the federated model. In this paper, we present an Asynchronous Online Federated Learning (ASO-Fed) framework, where the edge devices perform online learning with continuous streaming local data and a central server aggregates model parameters from clients. Our framework updates the central model in an asynchronous manner to tackle the challenges associated with both varying computational loads at heterogeneous edge devices and edge devices that lag behind or dropout. We perform extensive experiments on a simulated benchmark image dataset and three real-world non-IID streaming datasets. The results demonstrate the effectiveness of \model~on converging fast and maintaining good prediction performance., Comment: 11 pages

Recently, there has been significant interest in linear regression in the situation where predictors and responses are not observed in matching pairs corresponding to the same statistical unit as a consequence of separate data collection and uncertainty in data integration. Mismatched pairs can considerably impact the model fit and disrupt the estimation of regression parameters. In this paper, we present a method to adjust for such mismatches under ``partial shuffling" in which a sufficiently large fraction of (predictors, response)-pairs are observed in their correct correspondence. The proposed approach is based on a pseudo-likelihood in which each term takes the form of a two-component mixture density. Expectation-Maximization schemes are proposed for optimization, which (i) scale favorably in the number of samples, and (ii) achieve excellent statistical performance relative to an oracle that has access to the correct pairings as certified by simulations and case studies. In particular, the proposed approach can tolerate considerably larger fraction of mismatches than existing approaches, and enables estimation of the noise level as well as the fraction of mismatches. Inference for the resulting estimator (standard errors, confidence intervals) can be based on established theory for composite likelihood estimation. Along the way, we also propose a statistical test for the presence of mismatches and establish its consistency under suitable conditions., Comment: 31 pages

In "Unlabeled Sensing", one observes a set of linear measurements of an underlying signal with incomplete or missing information about their ordering, which can be modeled in terms of an unknown permutation. Previous work on the case of a single noisy measurement vector has exposed two main challenges: 1) a high requirement concerning the \emph{signal-to-noise ratio} ($\snr$), i.e., approximately of the order of $n^{5}$, and 2) a massive computational burden in light of NP-hardness in general. In this paper, we study the case of \emph{multiple} noisy measurement vectors (MMVs) resulting from a \emph{common} permutation and investigate to what extent the number of MMVs $m$ facilitates permutation recovery by "borrowing strength". The above two challenges have at least partially been resolved within our work. First, we show that a large stable rank of the signal significantly reduces the required snr which can drop from a polynomial in $n$ for $m = 1$ to a constant for $m = \Omega(\log n)$, where $m$ denotes the number of MMVs and $n$ denotes the number of measurements per MV. This bound is shown to be sharp and is associated with a phase transition phenomenon. Second, we propose a computational scheme for recovering the unknown permutation in practice. For the "oracle case" with the known signal, the maximum likelihood (ML) estimator reduces to a linear assignment problem whose global optimum can be obtained efficiently. For the case in which both the signal and permutation are unknown, the problem is reformulated as a bi-convex optimization problem with an auxiliary variable, which can be solved by the Alternating Direction Method of Multipliers (ADMM). Numerical experiments based on the proposed computational scheme confirm the tightness of our theoretical analysis.

A tacit assumption in linear regression is that (response, predictor)-pairs correspond to identical observational units. A series of recent works have studied scenarios in which this assumption is violated under terms such as ``Unlabeled Sensing and ``Regression with Unknown Permutation''. In this paper, we study the setup of multiple response variables and a notion of mismatches that generalizes permutations in order to allow for missing matches as well as for one-to-many matches. A two-stage method is proposed under the assumption that most pairs are correctly matched. In the first stage, the regression parameter is estimated by handling mismatches as contaminations, and subsequently the generalized permutation is estimated by a basic variant of matching. The approach is both computationally convenient and equipped with favorable statistical guarantees. Specifically, it is shown that the conditions for permutation recovery become considerably less stringent as the number of responses $m$ per observation increase. Particularly, for $m = \Omega(\log n)$, the required signal-to-noise ratio no longer depends on the sample size $n$. Numerical results on synthetic and real data are presented to support the main findings of our analysis.

Categorical regressor variables are usually handled by introducing a set of indicator variables, and imposing a linear constraint to ensure identifiability in the presence of an intercept, or equivalently, using one of various coding schemes. As proposed in Yuan and Lin [J. R. Statist. Soc. B, 68 (2006), 49-67], the group lasso is a natural and computationally convenient approach to perform variable selection in settings with categorical covariates. As pointed out by Simon and Tibshirani [Stat. Sin., 22 (2011), 983-1001], "standardization" by means of block-wise orthonormalization of column submatrices each corresponding to one group of variables can substantially boost performance. In this note, we study the aspect of standardization for the special case of categorical predictors in detail. The main result is that orthonormalization is not required; column-wise scaling of the design matrix followed by re-scaling and centering of the coefficients is shown to have exactly the same effect. Similar reductions can be achieved in the case of interactions. The extension to the so-called sparse group lasso, which additionally promotes within-group sparsity, is considered as well. The importance of proper standardization is illustrated via extensive simulations.

In regression analysis of multivariate data, it is tacitly assumed that response and predictor variables in each observed response-predictor pair correspond to the same entity or unit. In this paper, we consider the situation of "permuted data" in which this basic correspondence has been lost. Several recent papers have considered this situation without further assumptions on the underlying permutation. In applications, the latter is often to known to have additional structure that can be leveraged. Specifically, we herein consider the common scenario of "sparsely permuted data" in which only a small fraction of the data is affected by a mismatch between response and predictors. However, an adverse effect already observed for sparsely permuted data is that the least squares estimator as well as other estimators not accounting for such partial mismatch are inconsistent. One approach studied in detail herein is to treat permuted data as outliers which motivates the use of robust regression formulations to estimate the regression parameter. The resulting estimate can subsequently be used to recover the permutation. A notable benefit of the proposed approach is its computational simplicity given the general lack of procedures for the above problem that are both statistically sound and computationally appealing.

Principal Components Regression (PCR) is a traditional tool for dimension reduction in linear regression that has been both criticized and defended. One concern about PCR is that obtaining the leading principal components tends to be computationally demanding for large data sets. While random projections do not possess the optimality properties of the leading principal subspace, they are computationally appealing and hence have become increasingly popular in recent years. In this paper, we present an analysis showing that for random projections satisfying a Johnson-Lindenstrauss embedding property, the prediction error in subsequent regression is close to that of PCR, at the expense of requiring a slightly large number of random projections than principal components. Column sub-sampling constitutes an even cheaper way of randomized dimension reduction outside the class of Johnson-Lindenstrauss transforms. We provide numerical results based on synthetic and real data as well as basic theory revealing differences and commonalities in terms of statistical performance.

We consider the problem of recovering a high-dimensional structured signal from independent Gaussian linear measurements each of which is quantized to $b$ bits. Our interest is in linear approaches to signal recovery, where "linear" means that non-linearity resulting from quantization is ignored and the observations are treated as if they arose from a linear measurement model. Specifically, the focus is on a generalization of a method for one-bit observations due to Plan and Vershynin [\emph{IEEE~Trans. Inform. Theory, \textbf{59} (2013), 482--494}]. At the heart of the present paper is a precise characterization of the optimal trade-off between the number of measurements $m$ and the bit depth per measurement $b$ given a total budget of $B = m \cdot b$ bits when the goal is to minimize the $\ell_2$-error in estimating the signal. It turns out that the choice $b = 1$ is optimal for estimating the unit vector (direction) corresponding to the signal for any level of additive Gaussian noise before quantization as well as for a specific model of adversarial noise, while the choice $b = 2$ is optimal for estimating the direction and the norm (scale) of the signal. Moreover, Lloyd-Max quantization is shown to be an optimal quantization scheme w.r.t. $\ell_2$-estimation error. Our analysis is corroborated by numerical experiments showing nearly perfect agreement with our theoretical predictions. The paper is complemented by an empirical comparison to alternative methods of signal recovery taking the non-linearity resulting from quantization into account. The results of that comparison point to a regime change depending on the noise level: in a low-noise setting, linear signal recovery falls short of more sophisticated competitors while being competitive in moderate- and high-noise settings.

The de-facto standard approach of promoting sparsity by means of $\ell_1$-regularization becomes ineffective in the presence of simplex constraints, i.e.,~the target is known to have non-negative entries summing up to a given constant. The situation is analogous for the use of nuclear norm regularization for low-rank recovery of Hermitian positive semidefinite matrices with given trace. In the present paper, we discuss several strategies to deal with this situation, from simple to more complex. As a starting point, we consider empirical risk minimization (ERM). It follows from existing theory that ERM enjoys better theoretical properties w.r.t.~prediction and $\ell_2$-estimation error than $\ell_1$-regularization. In light of this, we argue that ERM combined with a subsequent sparsification step like thresholding is superior to the heuristic of using $\ell_1$-regularization after dropping the sum constraint and subsequent normalization. At the next level, we show that any sparsity-promoting regularizer under simplex constraints cannot be convex. A novel sparsity-promoting regularization scheme based on the inverse or negative of the squared $\ell_2$-norm is proposed, which avoids shortcomings of various alternative methods from the literature. Our approach naturally extends to Hermitian positive semidefinite matrices with given trace. Numerical studies concerning compressed sensing, sparse mixture density estimation, portfolio optimization and quantum state tomography are used to illustrate the key points of the paper.

Over the past few years, trace regression models have received considerable attention in the context of matrix completion, quantum state tomography, and compressed sensing. Estimation of the underlying matrix from regularization-based approaches promoting low-rankedness, notably nuclear norm regularization, have enjoyed great popularity. In the present paper, we argue that such regularization may no longer be necessary if the underlying matrix is symmetric positive semidefinite (\textsf{spd}) and the design satisfies certain conditions. In this situation, simple least squares estimation subject to an \textsf{spd} constraint may perform as well as regularization-based approaches with a proper choice of the regularization parameter, which entails knowledge of the noise level and/or tuning. By contrast, constrained least squares estimation comes without any tuning parameter and may hence be preferred due to its simplicity.

Consider a random vector with finite second moments. If its precision matrix is an M-matrix, then all partial correlations are non-negative. If that random vector is additionally Gaussian, the corresponding Markov random field (GMRF) is called attractive. We study estimation of M-matrices taking the role of inverse second moment or precision matrices using sign-constrained log-determinant divergence minimization. We also treat the high-dimensional case with the number of variables exceeding the sample size. The additional sign-constraints turn out to greatly simplify the estimation problem: we provide evidence that explicit regularization is no longer required. To solve the resulting convex optimization problem, we propose an algorithm based on block coordinate descent, in which each sub-problem can be recast as non-negative least squares problem. Illustrations on both simulated and real world data are provided., Comment: long version of a manuscript accepted for publication in Linear Algebra and its Applications

Motivated by an application in computational biology, we consider low-rank matrix factorization with $\{0,1\}$-constraints on one of the factors and optionally convex constraints on the second one. In addition to the non-convexity shared with other matrix factorization schemes, our problem is further complicated by a combinatorial constraint set of size $2^{m \cdot r}$, where $m$ is the dimension of the data points and $r$ the rank of the factorization. Despite apparent intractability, we provide - in the line of recent work on non-negative matrix factorization by Arora et al. (2012) - an algorithm that provably recovers the underlying factorization in the exact case with $O(m r 2^r + mnr + r^2 n)$ operations for $n$ datapoints. To obtain this result, we use theory around the Littlewood-Offord lemma from combinatorics., Comment: appeared in NIPS 2013

Least squares fitting is in general not useful for high-dimensional linear models, in which the number of predictors is of the same or even larger order of magnitude than the number of samples. Theory developed in recent years has coined a paradigm according to which sparsity-promoting regularization is regarded as a necessity in such setting. Deviating from this paradigm, we show that non-negativity constraints on the regression coefficients may be similarly effective as explicit regularization if the design matrix has additional properties, which are met in several applications of non-negative least squares (NNLS). We show that for these designs, the performance of NNLS with regard to prediction and estimation is comparable to that of the lasso. We argue further that in specific cases, NNLS may have a better $\ell_{\infty}$-rate in estimation and hence also advantages with respect to support recovery when combined with thresholding. From a practical point of view, NNLS does not depend on a regularization parameter and is hence easier to use., Comment: major revision

In generalized linear regression problems with an abundant number of features, lasso-type regularization which imposes an $\ell^1$-constraint on the regression coefficients has become a widely established technique. Deficiencies of the lasso in certain scenarios, notably strongly correlated design, were unmasked when Zou and Hastie [J. Roy. Statist. Soc. Ser. B 67 (2005) 301--320] introduced the elastic net. In this paper we propose to extend the elastic net by admitting general nonnegative quadratic constraints as a second form of regularization. The generalized ridge-type constraint will typically make use of the known association structure of features, for example, by using temporal- or spatial closeness. We study properties of the resulting "structured elastic net" regression estimation procedure, including basic asymptotics and the issue of model selection consistency. In this vein, we provide an analog to the so-called "irrepresentable condition" which holds for the lasso. Moreover, we outline algorithmic solutions for the structured elastic net within the generalized linear model family. The rationale and the performance of our approach is illustrated by means of simulated and real world data, with a focus on signal regression., Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/09-AOAS302 the Annals of Applied Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aoas/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org)