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Emerald ash borer, Agrilus planipennis Fairmaire (Coleoptera: Buprestidae), is one of the most serious forest pests in the United States. Ongoing research indicates that establishment of larval parasitoids depends upon the season-long availability of host stages susceptible to parasitism. We monitored emerald ash borer overwintering stages at 90 sites across 22 states to: 1) produce a model of the percentage of emerald ash borer overwintering as non-J larvae; 2) link that model to establishment of Tetrastichus planipennisi; and 3) explore changes to our model under climate change scenarios. Accumulated growing degree days (GDD) is an important predictor of the proportion of emerald ash borer overwintering as non-J larvae (1-4 instar larvae under the bark; available to parasitoids emerging in spring) versus J-larvae (fourth-instar larvae in pupal chambers in the outer wood; unavailable to parasitoids). From north to south, the availability of non-J emerald ash borer larvae in the spring decreases as accumulated GDD increases. In areas where the model predicted >46-75%, >30-46%, >13-30%, or ≤13% of emerald ash borer overwintering as non-J larvae, the probability of establishment of T. planipennisi was 92%, 67%, 57%, and 21%, respectively. We determined that 13% of emerald ash borer overwintering as non-J larvae was the lowest threshold for expected T. planipennisi establishment. Additional modeling predicts that under climate change, establishment of T. planipennisi will be most affected in the Central United States, with areas that are currently suitable becoming unsuitable. Our results provide a useful tool for the emerald ash borer biological control program on how to economically and successfully deploy emerald ash borer biological control agents., (Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Entomological Society of America 2020.)

The emerald ash borer (EAB), Agrilus planipennis Fairmaire, a buprestid beetle native to Asia, has become a serious pest of ash trees (Fraxinus spp.) in North America since the early 2000s. Due to the impracticality of applying insecticides in natural forests, biocontrol is the most viable method to manage EAB in natural ecosystems. Here, we report the first evidence for the establishment and impact of Spathius galinae Belokobylskij & Strazenac, a larval parasitoid first released in North America in 2016 and 2017 at six mixed-hardwood forest sites, in Connecticut, New York, and Massachusetts. We also report current levels of abundance and parasitism of another introduced larval EAB parasitoid, Tetrastichus planipennisi Yang (Hymenoptera: Eulophidae), released in 2015 and 2016 in these same sites. Spathius galinae was recovered at all release sites in 2018, and its density in sampled trees had increased 1.5- to 20-fold (relative to the first postrelease sample year), reaching a final density of 2.3-14.3 broods/m2 of phloem area and causing 13.1-49.2% marginal rate of parasitism at four of the six sites. In contrast, T. planipennisi was only recovered in 2018 at four of the six release sites, and both its density (0.1-2.3 broods/m2 of phloem area) and parasitism (0.1-5.6%) were lower than that of S. galinae throughout the study at the four sites where recoveries were made. Our data fill a critical gap in the development of a biocontrol-based EAB management plan to protect surviving ash trees capable of reaching maturity and producing replacement trees., (Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Entomological Society of America 2019.)