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2. WMO evaluation of two extreme high temperatures occurring in February 2020 for the antarctic peninsula region

Author

Universitat Rovira i Virgili, Francelino MR; Schaefer C; de Los Milagros Skansi M; Colwell S; Bromwich DH; Jones P; King JC; Lazzara MA; Renwick J; Solomon S; Brunet M; Cerveny RS, Universitat Rovira i Virgili, and Francelino MR; Schaefer C; de Los Milagros Skansi M; Colwell S; Bromwich DH; Jones P; King JC; Lazzara MA; Renwick J; Solomon S; Brunet M; Cerveny RS

Abstract

Two reports of Antarctic region potential new record high temperature observations (18.3°C, 6 February 2020 at Esperanza station and 20.8°C, 9 February 2020 at a Brazilian automated permafrost monitoring station on Seymour Island) were evaluated by a World Meteorological Organization (WMO) panel of atmospheric scientists. The latter figure was reported as 20.75°C in the media. The panel considered the synoptic situation and instrumental setups. It determined that a large high pressure system over the area created föhn conditions and resulted in local warming for both situations. Examination of the data and metadata of the Esperanza station observation revealed no major concerns. However, analysis of data and metadata of the Seymour Island permafrost monitoring station indicated that an improvised radiation shield led to a demonstrable thermal bias error for the temperature sensor. Consequently, the WMO has accepted the 18.3°C value for 1200 LST 6 February 2020 (1500 UTC 6 February 2020) at the Argentine Esperanza station as the new “Antarctic region (continental, including mainland and surrounding islands) highest temperature recorded observation” but rejected the 20.8°C observation at the Brazilian automated Seymour Island permafrost monitoring station as biased. The committee strongly emphasizes the permafrost monitoring station was not badly designed for its purpose, but the project investigators were forced to improvise a nonoptimal radiation shield after losing the original covering. Second, with regard to media dissemination of this type of information, the committee urges increased caution in early announcements as many media outlets often tend to sensationalize and mischaracterize potential records. © 2021 American Meteorological Society

Published
2021

4. Assessment of ECMWF SEAS5 Seasonal Forecast Performance over South America.

Author

Gubler, S., Sedlmeier, K., Bhend, J., Avalos, G., Coelho, C. A. S., Escajadillo, Y., Jacques-Coper, M., Martinez, R., Schwierz, C., de Skansi, M., and Spirig, Ch.

Subjects
TELECONNECTIONS (Climatology), FORECASTING, ATMOSPHERIC temperature
Abstract

Seasonal predictions have a great socioeconomic potential if they are reliable and skillful. In this study, we assess the prediction performance of SEAS5, version 5 of the seasonal prediction system of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), over South America against homogenized station data. For temperature, we find the highest prediction performances in the tropics during austral summer, where the probability that the predictions correctly discriminate different observed outcomes is 70%. In regions lying to the east of the Andes, the predictions of maximum and minimum temperature still exhibit considerable performance, while farther to the south in Chile and Argentina the temperature prediction performance is low. Generally, the prediction performance of minimum temperature is slightly lower than for maximum temperature. The prediction performance of precipitation is generally lower and spatially and temporally more variable than for temperature. The highest prediction performance is observed at the coast and over the highlands of Colombia and Ecuador, over the northeastern part of Brazil, and over an isolated region to the north of Uruguay during DJF. In general, Niño-3.4 has a strong influence on both air temperature and precipitation in the regions where ECMWF SEAS5 shows high performance, in some regions through teleconnections (e.g., to the north of Uruguay). However, we show that SEAS5 outperforms a simple empirical prediction based on Niño-3.4 in most regions where the prediction performance of the dynamical model is high, thereby supporting the potential benefit of using a dynamical model instead of statistical relationships for predictions at the seasonal scale. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2020
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5. STATE OF THE CLIMATE IN 2011 Special Supplement to the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society Vol. 93, No. 7, July 2012

Author

Arndt, D. S., Blunden, J., Willett, K. M., Dolman, A. J., Hall, B. D., Thorne, P. W., Gregg, M. C., Newlin, M. L., Xue, Y., Hu, Z., Kumar, A., Banzon, V., Smith, T. M., Rayner, N. A., Jeffries, M. O., Richter-Menge, J., Overland, J., Bhatt, U., Key, J., Liu, Y., Walsh, J., Wang, M., Fogt, R. L., Scambos, T. A., Wovrosh, A. J., Barreira, S., Sanchez-Lugo, A., Renwick, J. A., Thiaw, W. M., Weaver, S. J., Whitewood, R., Phillips, D., Achberger, C., Ackerman, S. A., Ahmed, F. H., Albanil-Encarnacion, A., Alfaro, E. J., Alves, L. M., Allan, R., Amador, J. A., Ambenje, P., Antoine, M. D., Antonov, J., Arevalo, J., Ashik, I., Atheru, Z., Baccini, A., Baez, J., Baringer, M. O., Barriopedro, D. E., Bates, J. J., Becker, A., Behrenfeld, M. J., Bell, G. D., Benedetti, A., Bernhard, G., Berrisford, P., Berry, D. I., Beszczynska-Moeller, A., Bhatt, U. S., Bidegain, M., Bieniek, P., Birkett, C., Bissolli, P., Blake, E. S., Boudet-Rouco, D., Box, J. E., Boyer, T., Braathen, G. O., Brackenridge, G. R., Brohan, P., Bromwich, D. H., Brown, L., Brown, R., Bruhwiler, L., Bulygina, O. N., Burrows, J., Calderon, B., Camargo, S. J., Cappellen, J., Carmack, E., Carrasco, G., Chambers, D. P., Christiansen, H. H., Christy, J., Chung, D., Ciais, P., Coehlo, C. A. S., Colwell, S., Comiso, J., Cretaux, J. F., Crouch, J., Cunningham, S. A., Jeu, R. A. M., Demircan, M., Derksen, C., Diamond, H. J., Dlugokencky, E. J., Dohan, K., Dorigo, W. A., Drozdov, D. S., Duguay, C., Dutton, E., Dutton, G. S., Elkins, J. W., Epstein, H. E., Famiglietti, J. S., Fanton D Andon, O. H., Feely, R. A., Fekete, B. M., Fenimore, C., Fernandez-Prieto, D., Fields, E., Fioletov, V., Folland, C., Foster, M. J., Frajka-Williams, E., Franz, B. A., Frey, K., Frith, S. H., Frolov, I., Frost, G. V., Ganter, C., Garzoli, S., Gitau, W., Gleason, K. L., Gobron, N., Goldenberg, S. B., Goni, G., Gonzalez-Garcia, I., Gonzalez-Rodriguez, N., Good, S. A., Goryl, P., Gottschalck, J., Gouveia, C. M., Griffiths, G. M., Grigoryan, V., Grooss, J. U., Guard, C., Guglielmin, M., Halpert, M. S., Heidinger, A. K., Heikkila, A., Heim, R. R., Hennon, P. A., Hidalgo, H. G., Hilburn, K., Ho, S. P., Hobbs, W. R., Holgate, S., Hook, S. J., Hovsepyan, A., Hu, Z. Z., Hugony, S., Hurst, D. F., Ingvaldsen, R., Itoh, M., Jaimes, E., Jeffries, M., Johns, W. E., Johnsen, B., Johnson, B., Johnson, G. C., Jones, L. T., Jumaux, G., Kabidi, K., Kaiser, J. W., Kang, K. K., Kanzow, T. O., Kao, H. Y., Keller, L. M., Kendon, M., Kennedy, J. J., Kervankiran, S., Khatiwala, S., Kholodov, A. L., Khoshkam, M., Kikuchi, T., Kimberlain, T. B., King, D., Knaff, J. A., Korshunova, N. N., Koskela, T., Kratz, D. P., Krishfield, R., Kruger, A., Kruk, M. C., Lagerloef, G., Lakkala, K., Lammers, R. B., Lander, M. A., Landsea, C. W., Lankhorst, M., Lapinel-Pedroso, B., Lazzara, M. A., Leduc, S., Lefale, P., Leon, G., Leon-Lee, A., Leuliette, E., Levitus, S., L Heureux, M., Lin, II, Liu, H. X., Liu, Y. J., Lobato-Sanchez, R., Locarnini, R., Loeb, N. G., Loeng, H., Long, C. S., Lorrey, A. M., Lumpkin, R., Myhre, C. L., Jing-Jia Luo, Lyman, J. M., Maccallum, S., Macdonald, A. M., Maddux, B. C., Manney, G., Marchenko, S. S., Marengo, J. A., Maritorena, S., Marotzke, J., Marra, J. J., Martinez-Sanchez, O., Maslanik, J., Massom, R. A., Mathis, J. T., Mcbride, C., Mcclain, C. R., Mcgrath, D., Mcgree, S., Mclaughlin, F., Mcvicar, T. R., Mears, C., Meier, W., Meinen, C. S., Menendez, M., Merchant, C., Merrifield, M. A., Miller, L., Mitchum, G. T., Montzka, S. A., Moore, S., Mora, N. P., Morcrette, J. J., Mote, T., Muhle, J., Mullan, A. B., Muller, R., Myhre, C., Nash, E. R., Nerem, R. S., Newman, P. A., Ngari, A., Nishino, S., Njau, L. N., Noetzli, J., Oberman, N. G., Obregon, A., Ogallo, L., Oludhe, C., Oyunjargal, L., Parinussa, R. M., Park, G. H., Parker, D. E., Pasch, R. J., Pascual-Ramirez, R., Pelto, M. S., Penalba, O., Perez-Suarez, R., Perovich, D., Pezza, A. B., Pickart, R., Pinty, B., Pinzon, J., Pitts, M. C., Pour, H. K., Prior, J., Privette, J. L., Proshutinsky, A., Quegan, S., Quintana, J., Rabe, B., Rahimzadeh, F., Rajeevan, M., Rayner, D., Raynolds, M. K., Razuvaev, V. N., Reagan, J., Reid, P., Revadekar, J., Rex, M., Rivera, I. L., Robinson, D. A., Rodell, M., Roderick, M. L., Romanovsky, V. E., Ronchail, J., Rosenlof, K. H., Rudels, B., Sabine, C. L., Santee, M. L., Sawaengphokhai, P., Sayouri, A., Schauer, U., Schemm, J., Schmid, C., Schreck, C., Semiletov, I., Send, U., Sensoy, S., Shakhova, N., Sharp, M., Shiklomanov, N. I., Shimada, K., Shin, J., Siegel, D. A., Simmons, A., Skansi, M., Sokolov, V., Spence, J., Srivastava, A. K., Stackhouse, P. W., Stammerjohn, S., Steele, M., Steffen, K., Steinbrecht, W., Stephenson, T., Stolarski, R. S., Sweet, W., Takahashi, T., Taylor, M. A., Tedesco, M., Thepaut, J. N., Thompson, P., Timmermans, M. L., Tobin, S., Toole, J., Trachte, K., Trewin, B. C., Trigo, R. M., Trotman, A., Tucker, C. J., Ulupinar, Y., Wal, R. S. W., Werf, G. R., Vautard, R., Votaw, G., Wagner, W. W., Wahr, J., Walker, D. A., Wang, C. Z., Wang, J. H., Wang, L., Wang, M. H., Wang, S. H., Wanninkhof, R., Weaver, S., Weber, M., Weingartner, T., Weller, R. A., Wentz, F., Wilber, A. C., Williams, W., Willis, J. K., Wilson, R. C., Wolken, G., Wong, T. M., Woodgate, R., Yamada, R., Yamamoto-Kawai, M., Yoder, J. A., Yu, L. S., Yueh, S., Zhang, L. Y., Zhang, P. Q., Zhao, L., Zhou, X. J., Zimmermann, S., Zubair, L., Laboratoire d'études en Géophysique et océanographie spatiales (LEGOS), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory (LDEO), Columbia University [New York], Space Technology Center, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), Climate Research Division [Toronto], Environment and Climate Change Canada, Earth and Space Research Institute [Seattle] (ESR), Department of Hydrology and Geo-Environmental Sciences [Amsterdam], Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam [Amsterdam] (VU), Vienna University of Technology (TU Wien), Instituto Dom Luiz, Universidade de Lisboa = University of Lisbon (ULISBOA), NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL), Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRES), University of Colorado [Boulder]-National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Department of Earth System Science [Irvine] (ESS), University of California [Irvine] (UC Irvine), University of California (UC)-University of California (UC), Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL), NASA-California Institute of Technology (CALTECH), University of California Center for Hydrologic Modeling [Irvine] (UCCHM), NOAA Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory [Seattle] (PMEL), Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Extrèmes : Statistiques, Impacts et Régionalisation (ESTIMR), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Department of Physics [Boulder], University of Colorado [Boulder], Istituto Nazionale di Fisica Nucleare [Pisa] (INFN), Istituto Nazionale di Fisica Nucleare (INFN), NOAA Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory (AOML), University at Albany [SUNY], State University of New York (SUNY), Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies (CIMSS), University of Wisconsin-Madison-NASA-National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Peking University [Beijing], National Oceanography Centre [Southampton] (NOC), University of Southampton, NOAA National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service (NESDIS), The University of Texas Medical Branch (UTMB), Institut für Umweltphysik [Bremen] (IUP), Universität Bremen, Department of Meteorology, University of Nairobi (UoN), Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC), IGAD, Institute for Environment and Sustainability of the JRC, Partenaires INRAE, Met Office Hadley Centre for Climate Change (MOHC), United Kingdom Met Office [Exeter], Agricultural Information Institute (AII), Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences (CAAS), Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI), Universitá degli Studi dell’Insubria = University of Insubria [Varese] (Uninsubria), Heilongjiang Institute of Science and Technology, Finnish Meteorological Institute (FMI), Universidad de Costa Rica (UCR), University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR), NOAA Center for Satellite Applications and Research (STAR), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)-National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), ESRL Global Monitoring Laboratory [Boulder] (GML), Materials and structures Laboratory, Tokyo Institute of Technology [Tokyo] (TITECH), Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science (RSMAS), University of Miami [Coral Gables], Norwegian Radiation and Nuclear Safety Authority, Direction Interrégionale de Météo-France pour l'océan Indien (DIROI), Météo-France, Department of Earth Sciences [Oxford], University of Oxford, NASA Langley Research Center [Hampton] (LaRC), University of Hawai‘i [Mānoa] (UHM), Department of Earth and Space Sciences [Seattle], University of Washington [Seattle], Leibniz-Institut für Meereswissenschaften (IFM-GEOMAR), Scripps Institution of Oceanography (SIO - UC San Diego), University of California [San Diego] (UC San Diego), Agroécologie [Dijon], Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Université de Bourgogne (UB)-AgroSup Dijon - Institut National Supérieur des Sciences Agronomiques, de l'Alimentation et de l'Environnement, Huazhong Agricultural University [Wuhan] (HZAU), NOAA National Weather Service (NWS), Department of Oceanography, Florida State University [Tallahassee] (FSU), Norwegian Institute for Air Research (NILU), Research Institute for Global Change (RIGC), Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC), NorthWest Research Associates (NWRA), Department of Physics [Socorro], New Mexico Institute of Mining and Technology [New Mexico Tech] (NMT), Ocean and Earth Science [Southampton], University of Southampton-National Oceanography Centre (NOC), Australian Antarctic Division (AAD), Australian Government, Department of the Environment and Energy, Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems Cooperative Research Centre (ACE-CRC), Massachusetts General Hospital [Boston], Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation [Canberra] (CSIRO), Australian Research Council (ARC), Remote Sensing Systems [Santa Rosa] (RSS), Développement, institutions et analyses de long terme (DIAL), Université Paris Dauphine-PSL, Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL), NOAA National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS), University of California (UC), NMR Laboratory, Université de Mons, Université de Mons (UMons), NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), Glaciology, Geomorphodynamics and Geochronology, Department of Geography [Zürich], Universität Zürich [Zürich] = University of Zurich (UZH)-Universität Zürich [Zürich] = University of Zurich (UZH), Chemistry Department [Massachusetts Institute of Technology], Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Nichols College Dudley, ERDC Cold Regions Research and Engineering Laboratory (CRREL), USACE Engineer Research and Development Center (ERDC), European Commission, Space Science and Engineering Center [Madison] (SSEC), University of Wisconsin-Madison, Lausanne University Hospital, Centro de Ciencias do Sistema Terrestre, Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE), University of Sheffield, Hochschule Mannheim - University of Applied Sciences, Laboratoire d'océanographie de Villefranche (LOV), Observatoire océanologique de Villefranche-sur-mer (OOVM), Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), Ministry of Earth Sciences [India], Woods Hole Research Center, Department of Earth and Environment [Boston], Boston University [Boston] (BU), Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research (CAWCR), Alfred-Wegener-Institut, Helmholtz-Zentrum für Polar- und Meeresforschung (AWI), Génétique et Ecologie des Virus, Génétique des Virus et Pathogénèse des Maladies Virales, Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale (INSERM), Department of Botany and Plant Pathology, Oregon State University (OSU), Ctr Ecol & Hydrol, Bangor, Environm Ctr Wales, Biospherical Instruments Inc., Processus de la variabilité climatique tropicale et impacts (PARVATI), Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat : Expérimentations et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN), Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7), Instituto Uruguayo de Meteorología, Javier Barrios Amorín 1488, CP 11200, Montevideo, Uruguay, Science Systems and Applications, Inc. [Hampton] (SSAI), National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC), Naval Postgraduate School (NPS), University of California [Berkeley] (UC Berkeley), Centre de physique moléculaire optique et hertzienne (CPMOH), Université Sciences et Technologies - Bordeaux 1 (UB)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), CYRIC, Tohoku University [Sendai], The University of Tennessee [Knoxville], Oak Ridge National Laboratory [Oak Ridge] (ORNL), UT-Battelle, LLC, The University Centre in Svalbard (UNIS), Institute of Arctic Alpine Research [University of Colorado Boulder] (INSTAAR), Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research WSL, Meteorologisches Observatorium Hohenpeißenberg (MOHp), Deutscher Wetterdienst [Offenbach] (DWD), British Antarctic Survey (BAS), Natural Environment Research Council (NERC), Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées-Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP), Météo France-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Météo France-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Universidade de Lisboa (ULISBOA), University of California [Irvine] (UCI), University of California-University of California, Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Universitá degli Studi dell’Insubria, University of Costa Rica, Météo France [Sainte-Clotilde], Météo France, University of Oxford [Oxford], Scripps Institution of Oceanography (SIO), Huazhong Agricultural University, University of California, NMR and Molecular Imaging Laboratory [Mons], University of Mons [Belgium] (UMONS), Lausanne University Hospital [Switzerland], Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de la Mer de Villefranche (IMEV), Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale (INSERM)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), Berkeley University of California (UC BERKELEY), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Sciences et Technologies - Bordeaux 1, and Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research (INSTAAR)

Subjects
[SDU.STU.OC]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Oceanography
Abstract

International audience; Large-scale climate patterns influenced temperature and weather patterns around the globe in 2011. In particular, a moderate-to-strong La Nina at the beginning of the year dissipated during boreal spring but reemerged during fall. The phenomenon contributed to historical droughts in East Africa, the southern United States, and northern Mexico, as well the wettest two-year period (2010-11) on record for Australia, particularly remarkable as this follows a decade-long dry period. Precipitation patterns in South America were also influenced by La Nina. Heavy rain in Rio de Janeiro in January triggered the country's worst floods and landslides in Brazil's history. The 2011 combined average temperature across global land and ocean surfaces was the coolest since 2008, but was also among the 15 warmest years on record and above the 1981-2010 average. The global sea surface temperature cooled by 0.1 degrees C from 2010 to 2011, associated with cooling influences of La Nina. Global integrals of upper ocean heat content for 2011 were higher than for all prior years, demonstrating the Earth's dominant role of the oceans in the Earth's energy budget. In the upper atmosphere, tropical stratospheric temperatures were anomalously warm, while polar temperatures were anomalously cold. This led to large springtime stratospheric ozone reductions in polar latitudes in both hemispheres. Ozone concentrations in the Arctic stratosphere during March were the lowest for that period since satellite records began in 1979. An extensive, deep, and persistent ozone hole over the Antarctic in September indicates that the recovery to pre-1980 conditions is proceeding very slowly. Atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations increased by 2.10 ppm in 2011, and exceeded 390 ppm for the first time since instrumental records began. Other greenhouse gases also continued to rise in concentration and the combined effect now represents a 30% increase in radiative forcing over a 1990 baseline. Most ozone depleting substances continued to fall. The global net ocean carbon dioxide uptake for the 2010 transition period from El Nino to La Nina, the most recent period for which analyzed data are available, was estimated to be 1.30 Pg C yr(-1), almost 12% below the 29-year long-term average. Relative to the long-term trend, global sea level dropped noticeably in mid-2010 and reached a local minimum in 2011. The drop has been linked to the La Nina conditions that prevailed throughout much of 2010-11. Global sea level increased sharply during the second half of 2011. Global tropical cyclone activity during 2011 was well-below average, with a total of 74 storms compared with the 1981-2010 average of 89. Similar to 2010, the North Atlantic was the only basin that experienced above-normal activity. For the first year since the widespread introduction of the Dvorak intensity-estimation method in the 1980s, only three tropical cyclones reached Category 5 intensity level-all in the Northwest Pacific basin. The Arctic continued to warm at about twice the rate compared with lower latitudes. Below-normal summer snowfall, a decreasing trend in surface albedo, and above-average surface and upper air temperatures resulted in a continued pattern of extreme surface melting, and net snow and ice loss on the Greenland ice sheet. Warmer-than-normal temperatures over the Eurasian Arctic in spring resulted in a new record-low June snow cover extent and spring snow cover duration in this region. In the Canadian Arctic, the mass loss from glaciers and ice caps was the greatest since GRACE measurements began in 2002, continuing a negative trend that began in 1987. New record high temperatures occurred at 20 m below the land surface at all permafrost observatories on the North Slope of Alaska, where measurements began in the late 1970s. Arctic sea ice extent in September 2011 was the second-lowest on record, while the extent of old ice (four and five years) reached a new record minimum that was just 19% of normal. On the opposite pole, austral winter and spring temperatures were more than 3 degrees C above normal over much of the Antarctic continent. However, winter temperatures were below normal in the northern Antarctic Peninsula, which continued the downward trend there during the last 15 years. In summer, an all-time record high temperature of -12.3 degrees C was set at the South Pole station on 25 December, exceeding the previous record by more than a full degree. Antarctic sea ice extent anomalies increased steadily through much of the year, from briefly setting a record low in April, to well above average in December. The latter trend reflects the dispersive effects of low pressure on sea ice and the generally cool conditions around the Antarctic perimeter.

Published
2012

6. ENSO INFLUENCE OVER PRECIPITATION IN ARGENTINA.

Author

Garbarini, E., Skansi, M. M., Gonzalez, M. H., and Rolla, A.

Subjects
EL Nino, CLIMATE change, METEOROLOGICAL precipitation, RAINFALL periodicity
Abstract

Argentina is located in southeastern South America and because of its extensive territory, areas with different climate features can be found. The main climate features are related to the moisture advection from the Brazilian forest in the north, from the South Atlantic High in the east and the frequent front passages from the southwest. All these features are highly influenced by the presence of Los Andes Mountain extending all along the west of the country. Some teleconnection patterns also influence seasonal climate, for example the El Niño-Southern Oscillation and the Indian Dipole. In these cases sea surface temperature anomalies in tropical oceans act as remote forcing generating Rossby wave trends which propagate meridionally towards middle-latitudes and arrive to western Argentina. In this chapter, the relation between these teleconnection forcings and seasonal precipitation is investigated in order that they can be used as rainfall predictors. The results indicate that the relationship depends on the season and the region of Argentina. It can be noticed that warm (cold) phase of El Niño and a positive (negative) phase of Indian Dipole are all related to increased (decreased) spring and autumn precipitation in northeastern Argentina and Central Andes and the signal decreases in summer and winter. Finally, the relationship between the last warm phase of El Niño beginning in 2015 and seasonal rainfall in Argentina is detailed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2016

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