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The spatiotemporal structure of the recent decadal subsurface cooling trend in the North Atlantic Ocean is analyzed in the context of the phase reversal of Atlantic multidecadal variability. A vertically integrated ocean heat content (HC) Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation index (AMO-HC) definition is proposed in order to capture the thermal state of the ocean and not just that of the surface as in the canonical AMO SST-based indices. The AMO-HC (5–657 m) index (defined over the area, 0°N–60°N, 5°W–75°W) indicates that: (1) The traditional surface AMO index lags the heat content (and subsurface temperatures) with the leading time being latitude-dependent. (2) The North Atlantic subsurface was in a warming trend since the mid-1980s to the mid-2000s, a feature that was also present at the surface with a lag of 3 years. (3) The North Atlantic subsurface is in a cooling trend since the mid-2000s with significant implications for predicting future North Atlantic climate. The spatial structure of decadal trends in upper-ocean heat content (5–657 m) in the North Atlantic prior to and after 2006 suggests a link with variability of the Gulf Stream–Subpolar Gyre system. The Gulf Stream leads variability in upper-ocean heat content over the Subpolar region by ∼13 years, and the lead increases from east to west from the Iceland Basin to the Irminger Sea to the Labrador Sea. The similarity between the structure of decadal mean anomalies, their change and trends in upper-ocean heat content and salinity in the North Atlantic and anomalies associated with a Gulf Stream index is striking. In this scheme, the displacements of the Gulf Stream–North Atlantic Current systems and their interactions with the Subpolar Gyre, as part of the meridional overturning circulation, have a decisive role for imposing decadal variability in both the Ocean and hydroclimate over the neighbouring continents.

The anomalous decadal warming of the subpolar North Atlantic Ocean (SPNA), and the northward spreading of this warm water, has been linked to rapid Arctic sea ice loss and more frequent cold Europe ...

This study investigates the multidecadal warming and interannual-to-decadal heat content changes in the upper ocean (0–700 m), focusing on vertical and horizontal patterns of variability. These results support a nearly monotonic warming over much of the World Ocean, with a shift toward Southern Hemisphere warming during the well-observed past decade. This is based on objectively analyzed gridded observational datasets and on a modeled state estimate. Besides the surface warming, a warming climate also has a subsurface effect manifesting as a strong deepening of the midthermocline isopycnals, which can be diagnosed directly from hydrographic data. This deepening appears to be a result of heat entering via subduction and spreading laterally from the high-latitude ventilation regions of subtropical mode waters. The basin-average multidecadal warming mainly expands the subtropical mode water volume, with weak changes in the temperature–salinity (θ–S) relationship (known as “spice” variability). However, the spice contribution to the heat content can be locally large, for example in Southern Hemisphere. Multidecadal isopycnal sinking has been strongest over the southern basins and weaker elsewhere with the exception of the Gulf Stream/North Atlantic Current/subtropical recirculation gyre. At interannual to decadal time scales, wind-driven sinking and shoaling of density surfaces still dominate ocean heat content changes, while the contribution from temperature changes along density surfaces tends to decrease as time scales shorten.

This study examines the processes governing the seasonal response of the Arctic Ocean and sea ice to surface forcings as they appear in historical simulations of 14 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 coupled climate models. In both models and observations, the seasonal heat budget is dominated by a local balance between net surface heating and storage in the heat content of the ocean and in melting/freezing of sea ice. Observations suggest ocean heat storage is more important than sea ice melt, while in most of these models, sea ice melt dominates. Seasonal horizontal heat flux divergence driven by the seasonal cycle of volume transport is only important locally. In models and observations, the dominant terms in the basin-average seasonal freshwater budget are the storages of freshwater between the ocean and sea ice, and the exchange between the two. The largest external source term is continental discharge in early summer, which is an order of magnitude smaller. The appearance of sea ice (extent and volume) and also ocean stratification in both the heat and freshwater budgets provides two links between the budgets and provides two mechanisms for feedback. One consequence of such an interaction is the fact that models with strong/weak seasonal surface heating also have strong/weak seasonal haline and temperature stratification.

Daily June-July melt fraction variations over the Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS) derived from the MODerate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) (2000-2013) are associated with atmospheric blocking forming an omega-shape ridge over the GIS at 500hPa height (from NCEPNCAR). Blocking activity with a range of time scales, from synoptic waves breaking poleward ( 5 days) to full-fledged blocks (5 days), brings warm subtropical air masses over the GIS controlling daily surface temperatures and melt. The temperature anomaly of these subtropical air mass intrusions is also important for melting. Based on the largest MODIS melt years (2002 and 2012), the area-average temperature anomaly of 2 standard deviations above the 14-year June-July mean, results in a melt fraction of 40 or more. Summer 2007 had the most blocking days, however atmospheric temperature anomalies were too small to instigate extreme melting.

Between 1996 and the mid-2000s the upper waters (200-700 m) of the Rockall Trough became warmer (+0.72 C), saltier (+0.088) and reduced in nitrate and phosphate (-2.00 Micron and -0.14 Micron respectively). These changes, out-with calculated errors, can be explained by the varying influence of southern versus subpolar water masses in the basin as the Subpolar Gyre weakened and contracted. Upper water properties strongly correlate with a measure of the strength of the Subpolar Gyre (the first principal component of sea surface height over the Subpolar North Atlantic) prior to the mid-2000s. As the gyre weakens, the upper layers of the trough become warmer (r -0.85), more saline (r -0.86) and reduced in nitrate and phosphate (r +0.81 and r +0.87 respectively). Further the proportion of subpolar waters in the basin decreases from around 50% to less than 20% (r +0. 88). Since the mid-2000s the Subpolar Gyre has been particularly weak. During this period temperatures decreased slightly (-0.21 1C), salinities remained near constant (35.410 +/- 0.005) and phosphate levels low and stable (0.68 +/- 0.02 Micron). These relative lack of changes are thought to be related to the maximum proportion of southern water masses within the Rockall Trough having been reached. Thus the upper water properties are no longer controlled by changes in the relative importance of different water masses in the basin (as prior to the mid-2000s), but rather a different process. We suggest that when the gyre is particularly weak the interannual changes in upper water properties in the Rockall Trough reflect changes in the source properties of the southern water masses. Since the early-2000s the Subpolar Gyre has been weaker than observed since 1992, or modelled since 1960-1970. Hence upper waters within the Rockall Trough may be warmer, saltier and more depleted in nitrate and phosphate than at any time in the last half century.

The evolution of nearly 20 years of altimetric sea surface height (SSH) is investigated to understand its association with decadal to multidecadal variability of the North Atlantic heat content. Altimetric SSH is dominated by an increase of about 14 cm in the Labrador and Irminger seas from 1993 to 2011, while the opposite has occurred over the Gulf Stream region over the same time period. During the altimeter period the observed 0-700 m ocean heat content (OHC) in the subpolar gyre mirrors the increased SSH by its dominantly positive trend. Over a longer period, 1955-2011, fluctuations in the subpolar OHC reflect Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV) and can be attributed to advection driven by the wind stress ''gyre mode'' bringing more subtropical waters into the subpolar gyre. The extended subpolar warming evident in SSH and OHC during the altimeter period represents transition of the AMV from cold to warm phase. In addition to the dominant trend, the first empirical orthogonal function SSH time series shows an abrupt change 2009-2010 reaching a new minimum in 2010. The change coincides with the change in the meridional overturning circulation at 26.5N as observed by the RAPID (Rapid Climate Change) project, and with extreme behavior of the wind stress gyre mode and of atmospheric blocking. While the general relationship between northern warming and Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) volume transport remains undetermined, the meridional heat and salt transport carried by AMOC's arteries are rich with decade-to-century timescale variability.

Decades of satellite observations have greatly improved our understanding of large-scale ocean circulation changes associated with climate variability, related air-sea interaction, and interbasin linkages. The continuation and enhancement (e.g., increased spatial resolution and frequency) of these satellite measurements and observations of additional parameters (e.g., sea surface salinity) in the coming decades are critical to further advancing our ability to monitor and understand decadal and longer variations in ocean circulation and determining the extent to which these changes result from natural climate variability or anthropogenic inputs.

We investigate the formation process and pathways of deep water masses in a coupled ice–ocean model of the Arctic and North Atlantic Oceans. The intent is to determine the relative roles of these water masses from the different source regions (Arctic Ocean, Nordic Seas, and Subpolar Atlantic) in the meridional overturning circulation. The model exhibits significant decadal variability in the deep western boundary current and the overturning circulation. We use detailed diagnostics to understand the process of water mass formation in the model and the resulting effects on the North Atlantic overturning circulation. Particular emphasis is given to the multiple sources of North Atlantic Deep Water, the dominant deep water masses of the world ocean. The correct balance of Labrador Sea, Greenland Sea and Norwegian Sea sources is difficult to achieve in climate models, owing to small-scale sinking and convection processes. The global overturning circulation is described as a function of potential temperature and salinity, which more clearly signifies dynamical processes and clarifies resolution problems inherent to the high latitude oceans. We find that fluxes of deep water masses through various passages in the model are higher than observed estimates. Despite the excessive volume flux, the Nordic Seas overflow waters are diluted by strong mixing and enter the Labrador Sea at a lighter density. Through strong subpolar convection, these waters along with other North Atlantic water masses are converted into the densest waters [similar density to Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW)] in the North Atlantic. We describe the diminished role of salinity in the Labrador Sea, where a shortage of buoyant surface water (or excess of high salinity water) leads to overly strong convection. The result is that the Atlantic overturning circulation in the model is very sensitive to the surface heat flux in the Labrador Sea and hence is correlated with the North Atlantic Oscillation. As strong subpolar convection is found in other models, we discuss broader implications.

Within the framework of the Arctic Ocean Model Intercomparison Project results from several coupled sea ice–ocean models are compared in order to investigate vertically integrated properties of the Arctic Ocean. Annual means and seasonal ranges of streamfunction, freshwater and heat content are shown. For streamfunction the entire water column is integrated. For heat and freshwater content integration is over the upper 1000 m. The study represents a step toward identifying differences among model approaches and will serve as a base for upcoming studies where all models will be executed with common forcing. In this first stage only readily available outputs are compared, while forcing as well as numerical parameterizations differ. The intercomparison shows streamfunctions differing in pattern and by several Sverdrups in magnitude. Differences occur as well for the seasonal range, where streamfunction is subject to large variability.

The varying depth-integrated currents in the Nordic seas and Arctic Ocean are modeled using an integral equation derived from the shallow-water equations. This equation assumes that mass divergence in the surface Ekman layer is balanced by convergence in the bottom Ekman layer. The primary flow component follows contours of f /H. The model employs observed winds and realistic bottom topography and has one free parameter, the coefficient of the (linear) bottom drag. The data used for comparison are derived from in situ current meters, satellite altimetry, and a primitive equation model. The current-meter data come from a 4-yr record at 75 8 Ni n the Greenland Sea. The currents here are primarily barotropic, and the model does well at simulating the variability. The ‘‘best’’ bottom friction parameter corresponds to a spindown time of 30‐60 days. A further comparison with bottom currents from a mooring on the Norwegian continental slope, deployed over one winter period, also shows reasonable correspondence. The principal empirical orthogonal function obtained from satellite altimetry data in the Nordic seas has a spatial structure that closely resembles f /H. A direct comparison of this mode’s fluctuations with those predicted by the theoretical model yields linear correlation coefficients in the range 0.75‐0.85. The primitive equation model is a coupled ocean‐ice version of the Princeton Ocean Model for the North Atlantic and Arctic. Monthly mean depth-averaged velocities are calculated from a 42-yr integration and then compared with velocities predicted from an idealized model driven by the same reanalyzed atmospheric winds. In the largely ice-free Norwegian Sea, the coherences between the primitive equation and idealized model velocities are as high as 0.9 on timescales of a few months to a few years. They are lower in the remaining partially or fully ice-covered basins of the Greenland Sea and the Arctic Ocean, presumably because ice alters the momentum transferred to the ocean by the wind. The coherence in the Canadian Basin of the Arctic can be increased substantially by forcing the idealized model with ice velocities rather than the wind. Estimates of the depth-integrated vorticity budget in the primitive equation model suggest that bottom friction is important but that lateral diffusion is of equal or greater importance in compensating surface Ekman pumping.

Upper ocean temperature variability in the tropical Atlantic is examined from the Comprehensive Ocean Atmosphere Data Set (COADS) as well as from an ocean model simulation forced by COADS anomalies appended to a monthly climatology. Our findings are as follows: Only the sea surface temperatures (SST) in the northern tropics are driven by heat fluxes, while the southern tropical variability arises from wind driven ocean circulation changes. The subsurface temperatures in the northern and southern tropics are found to have a strong linkage to buoyancy forcing changes in the northern North Atlantic. Evidence for Kelvin-like boundary wave propagation from the high latitudes is presented from the model simulation. This extratropical influence is associated with wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) forcing and manifests itself in the northern and southern tropical temperature anomalies of the same sign at depth of 100-200 meters as result of a Rossby wave propagation away from the eastern boundary in the wake of the boundary wave passage. The most apparent association of the southern tropical sea surface temperature anomalies (STA) arises with the anomalous cross-equatorial winds which can be related to both NAO and the remote influence from the Pacific equatorial region. These teleconnections are seasonal so that the NAO impact on the tropical SST is the largest it mid-winter but in spring and early summer the Pacific remote influence competes with NAO. However, NAO appears to have a more substantial role than the Pacific influence at low frequencies during the last 50 years. The dynamic origin of STA is indirectly confirmed from the SST-heat flux relationship using ocean model experiments which remove either anomalous wind stress forcing or atmospheric forcing anomalies contributing to heat exchange.

A striking conclusion of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 2007 report is the crucial role that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) may play in anthropogenic climate change. However, these IPCC coupled climate simulations show a broad range of uncertainty in the magnitude and timing of AMOC transport change ranging from none to nearly complete collapse within the 21st century. The potential consequences of large changes in the characteristics of AMOC have motivated the creation in the United States of an interagency program and implementation plan to develop monitoring and prediction capabilities for the AMOC This program parallels the development of substantial monitoring efforts by European, South American and African countries -- notably the UK Rapid and Rapid-Watch programs. The papers contained in this volume are derived from presentations at the First U.S. Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) Meeting held 4 - 6 May, 2009 to review the US implementation plan and its coordination with other monitoring activities. The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation consists of multiple components illustrated in an attached figure. Water enters the South Atlantic at upper and intermediate depths through both western and eastern routes (where eddy transport is especially important) and is transported northward across the equator, where it recirculates within the northern subtropical and subpolar gyres. The northern end is defined by the sinking regions of the Nordic Seas and the Labrador Sea where the waters that eventually form the upper and lower branches of North Atlantic Deep Water are conditioned. High surface salinities, the result of high net evaporation in the tropics and subtropics (including the Mediterranean Sea), and presence of regions of the Arctic Ocean that remain ice-free even in winter allow for the rapid cooling and thus densification of surface water. This dense surface water becomes the source of deep water formation in the sinking regions. In addition to transporting mass, the AMOC transports roughly half of the total amount of heat carried northward through the northern subtropics (down the temperature-gradient) by the ocean. In contrast in the Southern Hemisphere AMOC transports heat up-gradient from the cool Circumpolar Current to the warm tropics. Paleoevidence suggests that AMOC heat transport in the two hemispheres has varied over time in ways intimately tied to millennial changes in the Earth's climate. In one example, the abrupt Younger Dryas spell of cold weather over the North Atlantic, which began 13,000 years ago, has generally been linked to a millennial shutdown of the AMOC as a result of massive freshwater discharge from the North American continent. The current AMOC monitoring array consists of a series of instrumented transects located across key passages (see Cunningham et al., 2010 for a recent review). In the Arctic and sub-Arctic, transects cross Fram Strait, Denmark Strait and the Faroe Channel (connecting Greenland, Iceland, and the United Kingdom), as well as the entrance to the Labrador Sea. Further south and extending outwards from the east coast of North America there are a series of monitoring arrays including arrays of the Canadian Atlantic Zone Monitoring Program, deployments of the Rapid Western Atlantic Variability Experiment (WAVE), Line W at 39 N, as well as the Rapid-MOC moored array. The latter spans the entire Atlantic basin along 26.5 N. At tropical latitudes we have the Meridional Overturning Variability Experiment (MOVE) array at 16 N, while in the Southern Hemisphere a corresponding basin-spanning transect is being established at the latitude of Cape of Good Hope, complemented by arrays at Drake Passage.

Output from six regional sea ice-ocean climate model simulations of the arctic seas is compared to investigate the models' ability to accurately reproduce the observed late winter mean sea surface salinity. The results indicate general agreement within the Nordic seas, strong differences on the arctic continental shelves, and the presence of a climate drift that leads to a high salinity bias in most models within the Beaufort Gyre. The latter is highly sensitive to the wind forcing and to the simulation of freshwater sources on the shelves and elsewhere.

The variability of sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) in the tropical Atlantic is examined using data from 1900 to the present. SSTAs are filtered to focus on the interannual band with fluctuations less than 60 months. Both SSTAs over the northern tropical Atlantic (NTA) and the southern tropical Atlantic (STA) are associated with the El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability in the tropical Pacific. SSTAs over the STA are associated with the quasi-biennial component of ENSO with a timescale of 22–32 months, and SSTAs over the NTA are influenced by the low-frequency part of the ENSO signal with a timescale of 36–48 months. The ENSO influence is seasonally dependent. The strongest linkages occur in the spring of each hemisphere. In addition to ENSO, SSTAs in the north equatorial Atlantic are also modulated by the circulation and net heat flux anomalies associated with the North Atlantic oscillation (NAO). The atmospheric impact on the ocean is different in the STA and NTA regions. Whe...

Linkages between the sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) in the southern tropical Atlantic (STA) and in the Pacific on decadal time scales were examined. Seven to eight years before warming in the STA, an ENSO-like decadal SSTA pattern with positive anomalies in the Tropics and negative anomalies in the subtropics appears in the Pacific. In the Atlantic, negative anomalies are located in the North Atlantic, while the corresponding sea level pressure anomaly (SLPA) composite resembles a North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) pattern. After the establishment of the NAO, a pattern with the band structure of alternating positive and negative anomalies with warming in the STA appears 6 years later in the Atlantic. In the Pacific, warm SSTAs shift from the date line to the eastern Pacific three to four years later after the ENSO -like pattern appears. Soon after, a wave train extends from the Pacific to the tip of Argentina and negative anomalies appear in the South Atlantic. Warming starts in the STA. While SSTAs in the Pacific and the Atlantic may not vary as a single mode, two oceans interact when SSTAs in the Pacific are strong enough to generate downstream responses. These anomalies in turn contribute to the variations of SSTAs over the STA.

Analysis of a fifty-year record (1946-1995) of monthly-averaged sea level pressure data provides a link between the phases of planetary-scale sea level pressure waves and Arctic Ocean and ice variability. Results of this analysis show: (1) a breakdown of the dominant wave 1 pattern in the late 1960's, (2) shifts in the mean phase of waves 1 and 2 since this breakdown, (3) an eastward shift in the phases of both waves 1 and 2 during the years of simulated cyclonic Arctic Ocean circulation relative to their phases during the years of anticyclonic circulation, (4) a strong decadal variability of wave phase associated with simulated Arctic Ocean circulation changes. Finally, the Arctic atmospheric circulation patterns that emerge when waves 1 and 2 are in their extreme eastern and western positions suggest an alternative approach for determining significant forcing patterns of sea ice and high-latitude variability.

Daily June-July melt fraction variations over the Greenland ice sheet (GIS) derived from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) (2000–2013) are associated with atmospheric blocking forming an omega-shape ridge over the GIS at 500 hPa height. Blocking activity with a range of time scales, from synoptic waves breaking poleward (

The variability of the Arctic circulation is investigated for a 43 year period (1951–1993) from a coupled ice-ocean model. Empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis shows that the variability of the sea surface height (SSH) and vertically integrated transport is organized so that in the leading mode the whole Arctic operates as a single gyre. The mode is associated with the Arctic Oscillation (AO) [Thompson and Wallace, 1998], and it explains over 70% of the variance in the vertically integrated transport and 25% of the SSH variability. The physical interpretation of this mode is derived to arise from its close connection to the Atlantic inflow to the Arctic. The mode shows a major shift toward cyclonic circulation in the end of the 1980s which is associated with a large multiyear pulse of Atlantic water to the Arctic. Thus this event appears as the likely initiation of the Atlantic layer warming observed during the recent years [Carmack et al., 1995]. Overall, the first mode shows strong decadal variability as reported by Proshutinsky and Johnson [1997]. The second mode of the oceanic circulation, which explains 9% of the variance in the transport, contains two gyres with opposing cyclonicity in the Eurasia and Canada basins. It projects onto the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) pattern and displays a 14 year cycle which is known to exist in the midlatitude North Atlantic surface temperatures [Deser and Blackmon, 1993]. A further examination reveals that this mode describes the variability of the flow through the Barents Sea, which is modulated by the water mass modification due to the local heat flux variability. The apparent NAO connection is provided by a simultaneous correlation between the time series of this second mode and the leading heat flux mode in the North Atlantic which is associated with NAO.

The decadal, 12–14-yr cycle observed in the North Atlantic SST and tide gauge data was examined using the NCEP–NCAR reanalyses, the Comprehensive Ocean–Atmosphere Data Set, and an ocean model simulation. SST data are contrasted with tide gauge data, which shows that in SST the decadal mode is nonstationary with strong variability for the last 40–50 yr, but the sea level at the southeastern U.S. coast exhibits a robustly regular variability at this period for the last 75 yr. Thus, sea level variability gives credibility to the existence of a decadal mode. The main finding is that this 12–14-yr cycle can be constructed based on the leading mode of the surface heat flux, which implicates the participation of the thermohaline circulation. This cycle has potential to be a coupled mode because three necessary aspects of a coupled mode are found: a positive feedback between the atmosphere and ocean in the subpolar gyre, a negative feedback of the overturning variability on itself, and a delayed adjustme...

A method for comparing sea ice velocity, divergence, and shear at the large-scale between buoys and Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) is presented. For initial testing, the method is applied in the Eurasian Basin because of its relatively simple circulation dominated by the wind. Using eight Argos buoys, 11 strain rate arrays 100–600 km in size are constructed. Daily 100 km resolution sea ice motion derived from SSM/I 85 GHz brightness temperatures is sampled 100–1000 km from the center of the buoy arrays. Over this range of possible scales, a minimum RMS difference (RMSD) for deformation is used to identify an optimal inclusion radius of 600 km corresponding to a length scale of 1000 km. This length scale is typical of local storms confirming a strong connection between wind and observed sea ice motion. On the basis of all 11 arrays, an average RMSD of 2.48±0.05 cm s−1 for velocity vector and 8.8±0.9×10−8 s−1 using all four deformation components (∂ui/∂χj∥ is found at the optimal inclusion radius corresponding to average correlation coefficients of 0.896±0.002 and 0.729±0.030, respectively. RMSD are found to scale with the temporal and spatial uncertainties of the SSM/I suggesting that even better results can be achieved with higher resolution instruments.

Model simulations of an idealistic "Great Salinity Anomaly" (GSA) demonstrate that variability in the sea ice export from the Arctic when concentrated to short pulses can have a large influence on the meridional heat transport and can lead to an altered overturning state. One single freshwater disturbance resulting from excess ice export, as in 1968, can disrupt the deep mixing process. The critical condition for a large oceanic response is defined by the intensity, duration, and timing of the ice pulse, in particular, as it exits through the Denmark Strait. A recovery from this event takes several years for advection and diffusion to remove the salinity anomaly. Concurrently, the influence of the GSA propagates to the subtropics via the boundary currents and baroclinic adjustment. As a result of this adjustment, there are large (up to 20%) changes in the strength of the overturning cell and in the meridional heat transport in the subtropics and subpolar areas. Simulations show a temperature–salinity shift toward colder and fresher subpolar deep waters after the GSA, which is also found in hydrographic data. Corresponding author address: Dr. Sirpa Häkkinen, NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center, MC 971, Greenbelt, MD 20771.

A 43-year ocean model simulation for the period 1951–1993 is analyzed, with a focus on the meridional heat transport (MHT) as a proxy for the strength of meridional overturning cell (MOC) at 25°N. The surface heat flux forcing associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) pattern is related to the variability in MHT both on interannual and longer timescales. The manifestation of the interannual and decadal oceanic response to NAO is nonlocal, as evidenced by the concentrated heat content and sea level variability at the Gulf Stream and North Atlantic Current regions and shown by the comparison of the model sea level variability to the altimeter data between low MHT years in mid-1980s and high MHT years in early 1990s. The same area is singled out by empirical orthogonal function analysis in the leading mode of the sea level. MHT and time series of the leading sea level mode are highly correlated, which reflects the importance of the MOC in determining the variability of the heat content of the whole basin. Also, the model suggests that the MHT/MOC has entered a very strong phase since the mid-1980s and this trend has continued up to the end of 1993; this behavior follows the general trend in the NAO index.

We analyze the three-dimensional structure of the Meridional Overturning Cell (MOC) in a numerical model of the North Atlantic and Arctic Oceans. The MOC is found to consist of several downward branches: some associated with dense water formation driven by surface buoyancy forcing (Labrador Sea, northern Norwegian Sea and Barents Sea), and some associated with interior mixing processes in the model (most notably entrainment of thermocline waters into the dense overflows at the Greenland–Scotland Ridge). Two experiments with altered surface buoyancy conditions are performed, both resulting in a change in the dense water formation rate in the Labrador Sea. A change of the same sign is observed in the strength of the MOC (and thus in the meridional heat flux); however, the change is less (20–50%) than would be expected from the change in the dense water formation rate. The MOC and the rate of dense water formation at higher latitudes seem not to be tightly linked on the decadal time scale. Instead, significant changes in the volume of water masses may take place. Taking this phenomenon into account may improve the interpretation of the chain of events that constitutes a climate oscillation, whether it be observed in models or in nature.

A fully prognostic coupled ocean-ice model is used to study the sensitivity of the overturning cell of the Arctic-North-Atlantic system to sea ice forcing. The strength of the thermohaline cell will be shown to depend on the amount of sea ice transported from the Arctic to the Greenland Sea and further to the subpolar gyre. The model produces a 2–3 Sv increase of the meridional circulation cell at 25N (at the simulation year 15) corresponding to a decrease of 800 km³ in the sea ice export from the Arctic. Previous modeling studies suggest that interannual and decadal variability in sea ice export of this magnitude is realistic, implying that sea ice induced variability in the overturning cell can reach 5–6 Sv from peak to peak.

During recent decades, historically unprecedented changes have been observed in the Arctic as climate warming has increased precipitation, river discharge, and glacial as well as sea-ice melting. Additionally, shifts in the Arctic's atmospheric pressure field have altered surface winds, ocean circulation, and freshwater storage in the Beaufort Gyre. These processes have resulted in variable patterns of freshwater export from the Arctic Ocean, including the emergence of great salinity anomalies propagating throughout the North Atlantic. Here, we link these variable patterns of freshwater export from the Arctic Ocean to the regime shifts observed in Northwest Atlantic shelf ecosystems. Specifically, we hypothesize that the corresponding salinity anomalies, both negative and positive, alter the timing and extent of water-column stratification, thereby impacting the production and seasonal cycles of phytoplankton, zooplankton, and higher-trophic-level consumers. Should this hypothesis hold up to critical evaluation, it has the potential to fundamentally alter our current understanding of the processes forcing the dynamics of Northwest Atlantic shelf ecosystems.

The Arctic freshwater (FW) has been the focus of many modeling studies, due to the potential impact of Arctic FW on the deep water formation in the North Atlantic. A comparison of the hindcasts from ten ocean-sea ice models shows that the simulation of the Arctic FW budget is quite different in the investigated models. While they agree on the general sink and source terms of the Arctic FW budget, the long-term means as well as the variability of the FW export vary among models. The best model-to-model agreement is found for the interannual and seasonal variability of the solid FW export and the solid FW storage, which also agree well with observations. For the interannual and seasonal variability of the liquid FW export, the agreement among models is better for the Canadian Arctic Archipelago (CAA) than for Fram Strait. The reason for this is that models are more consistent in simulating volume flux anomalies than salinity anomalies and volume-flux anomalies dominate the liquid FW export variability in the CAA but not in Fram Strait. The seasonal cycle of the liquid FW export generally shows a better agreement among models than the interannual variability, and compared to observations the models capture the seasonality of the liquid FW export rather well. In order to improve future simulations of the Arctic FW budget, the simulation of the salinity field needs to be improved, so that model results on the variability of the liquid FW export and storage become more robust.

Six AOMIP model simulations are compared with estimates of sea ice thickness derived from pan-arctic satellite freeboard measurements (2004-2008), airborne electromagnetic measurements (2001-2009), ice-draft data from moored instruments in Fram Strait, the Greenland Sea and the Beaufort Sea (1992- 2008) and from submarines (1975-2000), drill hole data from the Arctic basin, Laptev and East Siberian marginal seas (1982-1986) and coastal stations (1998-2009). Despite an assessment of six models that differ in numerical methods, resolution, domain, forcing, and boundary conditions, the models generally overestimate the thickness of measured ice thinner than ~2 m and underestimate the thickness of ice measured thicker than about ~2 m. In the regions of flat immobile land-fast ice (shallow Siberian Seas with depths less than 25-30 m), the models generally overestimate both the total observed sea ice thickness and rates of September and October ice growth from observations by more than four times and more than one standard deviation, respectively. The models do not reproduce conditions of fast-ice formation and growth. Instead, the modeled fast-ice is replaced with pack ice which drifts, generates ridges of increasing ice thickness, in addition to thermodynamic ice growth. Considering all observational data sets, the better correlations and smaller differences from observations are from the ECCO2 and UW models.

We developed an ecosystem/biogeochemical model system, which includes multiple phytoplankton functional groups and carbon cycle dynamics, and applied it to investigate physical-biological interactions in Icelandic waters. Satellite and in situ data were used to evaluate the model. Surface seasonal cycle amplitudes and biases of key parameters (DIC, TA, pCO2, air-sea CO2 flux, and nutrients) are significantly improved when compared to surface observations by prescribing deep water values and trends, based on available data. The seasonality of the coccolithophore and "other phytoplankton" (diatoms and dinoflagellates) blooms is in general agreement with satellite ocean color products. Nutrient supply, biomass and calcite concentrations are modulated by light and mixed layer depth seasonal cycles. Diatoms are the most abundant phytoplankton, with a large bloom in early spring and a secondary bloom in fall. The diatom bloom is followed by blooms of dinoflagellates and coccolithophores. The effect of biological changes on the seasonal variability of the surface ocean pCO2 is nearly twice the temperature effect, in agreement with previous studies. The inclusion of multiple phytoplankton functional groups in the model played a major role in the accurate representation of CO2 uptake by biology. For instance, at the peak of the bloom, the exclusion of coccolithophores causes an increase in alkalinity of up to 4 μmol kg−1 with a corresponding increase in DIC of up to 16 μmol kg−1. During the peak of the bloom in summer, the net effect of the absence of the coccolithophores bloom is an increase in pCO2 of more than 20 μatm and a reduction of atmospheric CO2 uptake of more than 6 mmol m−2 d−1. On average, the impact of coccolithophores is an increase of air-sea CO2 flux of about 27%. Considering the areal extent of the bloom from satellite images within the Irminger and Icelandic Basins, this reduction translates into an annual mean of nearly 1500 tonnes C yr−1.

Atmospheric blocking over the northern North Atlantic, which involves isolation of large regions of air from the westerly circulation for 5 days or more, influences fundamentally the ocean circulation and upper ocean properties by affecting wind patterns. Winters with clusters of more frequent blocking between Greenland and western Europe correspond to a warmer, more saline subpolar ocean. The correspondence between blocked westerly winds and warm ocean holds in recent decadal episodes (especially 1996 to 2010). It also describes much longer time scale Atlantic multidecadal ocean variability (AMV), including the extreme pre–greenhouse-gas northern warming of the 1930s to 1960s. The space-time structure of the wind forcing associated with a blocked regime leads to weaker ocean gyres and weaker heat exchange, both of which contribute to the warm phase of AMV.

Warm salty Atlantic Water is the main source water for the Arctic Ocean and thus plays an important role in the mass and heat budget of the Arctic. This study explores interannual to decadal variability of Atlantic Water properties in the Nordic Seas area where Atlantic Water enters the Arctic, based on a reexamination of the historical hydrographic record for the years 1950-2009, obtained by combining multiple data sets. The analysis shows a succession of four multi-year warm events where temperature anomalies at 100m depth exceed 0.4oC, and three cold events. Three of the four warm events lasted 3-4 years, while the fourth began in 1999 and persists at least through 2009. This most recent warm event is anomalous in other ways as well, being the strongest, having the broadest geographic extent, being surface-intensified, and occurring under exceptional meteorological conditions. Three of the four warm events were accompanied by elevated salinities consistent with enhanced ocean transport into the Nordic Seas, with the exception of the event spanning July 1989-July 1993. Of the three cold events, two lasted for four years, while the third lasted for nearly 14 years. Two of the three cold events are associated with reduced salinities, but the cold event of the 1960s had elevated salinities. The relationship of these events to meteorological conditions is examined. The results show that local surface heat flux variations act in some cases to reinforce the anomalies, but are too weak to be the sole cause.

Ocean state estimates from 1958 to 2005 from the Simple Ocean Assimilation System (SODA) system are analyzed to understand circulation between subtropical and subpolar Atlantic and their connection with atmospheric forcing. This analysis shows three periods (1960s, around 1980, and 2000s) with enhanced warm, saline waters reaching high latitudes, alternating with freshwater events originating at high latitudes. It complements surface drifter and altimetry data showing the subtropical -subpolar exchange leading to a significant temperature and salinity increase in the northeast Atlantic after 2001. The warm water limb of the Atlantic meridional overturning cell represented by SODA expanded in density/salinity space during these warm events. Tracer simulations using SODA velocities also show decadal variation of the Gulf Stream waters reaching the subpolar gyre and Nordic seas. The negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation index, usually invoked in such variability, fails to predict the warming and salinization in the early 2000s, with salinities not seen since the 1960s. Wind stress curl variability provided a linkage to this subtropical/subpolar gyre exchange as illustrated using an idealized two ]layer circulation model. The ocean response to the modulation of the climatological wind stress curl pattern was found to be such that the northward penetration of subtropical tracers is enhanced when amplitude of the wind stress curl is weaker than normal. In this case both the subtropical and subpolar gyres weaken and the subpolar density surfaces relax; hence, the polar front moves westward, opening an enhanced northward access of the subtropical waters in the eastern boundary current.

[1] Analysis of surface drifter tracks in the North Atlantic Ocean from the time period 1990 to 2007 provides evidence that warm subtropical waters have recently increased their penetration toward the Nordic seas. Prior to 2000, the warm water branches of the North Atlantic Current fed by the Gulf Stream turned southeastward in the eastern North Atlantic. Since 2001, these paths have shifted toward the Rockall Trough, through which the most saline North Atlantic waters pass to the Nordic seas. These surface drifters are able to overcome the Ekman drift, which would force them southward under the westerly winds dominating the subpolar Atlantic, yet the changes in path cannot be accounted for by changes in Ekman drift. Eddy kinetic energy from satellite altimetry shows increased energy along the shifted drifter pathways across the Mid-Atlantic Ridge since 2001. These near-surface changes have occurred during continual weakening of the North Atlantic subpolar gyre, as seen by altimetry. They are also consistent with the observed increase in temperature and salinity of the waters flowing northward into the Nordic seas. These findings suggest the changes in the vertical structure of the northern North Atlantic Ocean, its dynamics, and exchanges with the higher latitudes. Wind stress and its curl changes are discussed as a possible forcing of the changes in the pathways of the subtropical waters.

[1] Sea ice drift data (from Russian North Pole stations, various ice camps, and the International Arctic Buoy Program) and surface wind stress data from the NCAR/NCEP Reanalysis are analyzed to determine their long-term trends and causality. The study finds that both parameters (ice drift and wind stress) show gradual acceleration over last 50 years. Significant positive trends are present in both winter and summer data. The major cause of observed positive trends is increasing Arctic storm activity over the Transpolar Drift Stream caused by a shift of storm tracks toward higher latitudes. It is speculated, with some observational evidence, that the increased stirring of the ocean by winds could hasten the transition of the Arctic toward a weakly stratified ocean with a potential for deep convection and a new sink for atmospheric CO2.

[1] Hydrography from the Nordic seas from 1951 to 2003 was analyzed focusing on the upper ocean conditions during known periods of deep mixing. The analysis used data from NOAA National Oceanographic Data Center and from International Council for the Exploration of the Sea Oceanographic Database. Because of the sparseness of the wintertime data, only summertime data are analyzed, primarily at 200 m, which retains memory of previous winter’s effects below summer mixed layer. It is found that the salinity variability in the central Greenland Gyre follows closely the sea level pressure (SLP) fluctuations found along the Greenland Coast, e.g., at Angmagssalik. Corresponding large-scale SLP field resembles North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) in its negative index phase. The dissimilarity between the central gyre salinity fluctuations and the incoming Atlantic water salinity fluctuations suggests that mixing with other water masses (Arctic origin waters and recirculating Atlantic waters) present in the central gyre is important in modifying the incoming Atlantic water salinity at interannual timescales. However, the largest freshwater addition to the Atlantic waters takes place in the Norwegian Sea or even further upstream in the North Atlantic. The variability of this freshwater intake resembles the NAO index on multidecadal timescales.

The article of record as published may be found at https://doi.org/10.1029/2006JC003916 Monthly sea levels from five Arctic Ocean Model Intercomparison Project (AOMIP) models are analyzed and validated against observations in the Arctic Ocean. The AOMIP models are able to simulate variability of sea level reasonably well, but several improvements are needed to reduce model errors. It is suggested that the models will improve if their domains have a minimum depth less than 10 m. It is also recommended to take into account forcing associated with atmospheric loading, fast ice, and volume water fluxes representing Bering Strait inflow and river runoff. Several aspects of sea level variability in the Arctic Ocean are investigated based on updated observed sea level time series. The observed rate of sea level rise corrected for the glacial isostatic adjustment at 9 stations in the Kara, Laptev, and East Siberian seas for 1954–2006 is estimated as 0.250 cm/yr. There is a well pronounced decadal variability in the observed sea level time series. The 5-year running mean sea level signal correlates well with the annual Arctic Oscillation (AO) index and the sea level atmospheric pressure (SLP) at coastal stations and the North Pole. For 1954–2000 all model results reflect this correlation very well, indicating that the long-term model forcing and model reaction to the forcing are correct. Consistent with the influences of AO-driven processes, the sea level in the Arctic Ocean dropped significantly after 1990 and increased after the circulation regime changed from cyclonic to anticyclonic in 1997. In contrast, from 2000 to 2006 the sea level rose despite the stabilization of the AO index at its lowest values after 2000. This research is supported by the National Science Foundation Office of Polar Programs (under cooperative agreements OPP- 0002239 and OPP- 0327664) with the International Arctic Research Center, University of Alaska Fairbanks, and by the Climate Change Prediction Program of the Department of Energy’s Office of Biological and Environmental Research. The development of the UW model is also supported by NASA grants NNG04GB03G and NNG04GH52G and NSF grants OPP-0240916 and OPP-0229429.

[1] Observations indicate that the occurrence of dense upper-ocean water masses coincides with periods of intense deep-water formation in the Greenland Sea. This paper focuses on the upper-ocean hydrography of the area and its simulation in models. We analyze properties that reside below the summer mixed layer at 200 m and carry the winter mixing signal. The analysis employs numerical simulations from four different models, all of which are forced as specified by the Arctic Ocean Model Intercomparison Project (AOMIP). The models exhibit varying degrees of success in simulating upper-ocean properties observed in the Greenland Sea, including very dense, saline water masses in the 1950s, 1960s, and 1970s. Two of the models predict the importance of salinity in determining the maximum density in the upper waters of the central gyre. The circulation pattern of Atlantic Water was captured well by two high-resolution models as measured by temperature-salinity-density relationships. The simulated temporal variability of Atlantic Water properties was less satisfactory, particularly in the case of salinity.

The article of record as published may be found at http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2006JC003642 As a part of the Arctic Ocean Model Intercomparison Project, results from 10 Arctic ocean/ice models are intercompared over the period 1970 through 1999. Models' monthly mean outputs are laterally integrated over two subdomains (Amerasian and Eurasian basins), then examined as functions of depth and time. Differences in such fields as averaged temperature and salinity arise from models' differences in parameterizations and numerical methods and from different domain sizes, with anomalies that develop at lower latitudes carried into the Arctic. A systematic deficiency is seen as AOMIP models tend to produce thermally stratified upper layers rather than the “cold halocline”, suggesting missing physics perhaps related to vertical mixing or to shelf‐basin exchanges. Flow fields pose a challenge for intercomparison. We introduce topostrophy, the vertical component of V×∇D where V is monthly mean velocity and ∇D is the gradient of total depth, characterizing the tendency to follow topographic slopes. Positive topostrophy expresses a tendency for cyclonic “rim currents”. Systematic differences of models' circulations are found to depend strongly upon assumed roles of unresolved eddies. National Science Foundation Office of Polar Programs International Arctic Research Center, University of Alaska Fairbanks U.S. Department of Energy, Climate Change Prediction Program Center for Computational Sciences at Oak Ridge National Laboratory NSF/ARCSS, by the NASA Global Modeling and Analysis, Radiation Sciences, Cryospheric Sciences Programs Russian Foundation for Basic Research OPP-0002239 OPP-0327664

Monthly energetics of the Arctic Ocean are estimated based on results from six different coupled ice-ocean models. The components of the kinetic, potential and available potential energies, energy conversion and forcing rates are studied. The energy balances derived from the models differ significantly in the abyss, notably regarding the conversion of potential and kinetic energies. The models produce arctic boundary undercurrents controlled by the non-geostrophic components of the momentum equation, like advection and friction. Discrepancies exist where the modeled boundary currents are located and how completely the flow circulates around the Arctic Ocean. Two models produce cyclonic circulation, which is strongest at the depths of 300–800 m. The initial stratification, based on observations, contains a marked gradient of the available potential energy between the Eurasian and Canadian Basins with two corresponding circulation cells. The stratification is modified by the modeled circulation systematically so that this gradient vanishes. The models aim to produce a closer match toward the expected circulation, but result in a deviation from the observed, initial stratification.

[1] Low frequency sea ice drift variability and its oceanic and atmospheric forcing are investigated for the Labrador Sea over the period 1979–2002. Our objective is to separate the ocean forced component of ice drift in order to corroborate the changes in the subpolar gyre circulation found by Hakkinen and Rhines (2004). The atmospheric and oceanic forcing components can be approximately separated by comparing the time series resulting from an Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis of sea ice motion with local sea level pressure gradients and altimetry-derived oceanic velocities. The first ice motion EOF is found to be associated with wind driven ice drift. The second mode is associated with oceanic forcing, because its time series is similar in its fluctuations to the oceanic velocities derived from altimetry. These two data sets confirm a major weakening of the subpolar ocean circulation between the early 1990s and the latter 1990s.

Observations of sea surface height reveal that substantial changes have occurred over the past decade in the mid- to high-latitude North Atlantic Ocean. TOPEX/Poseidon altimeter data show that subpolar sea surface height increased during the 1990s, and the geostrophic velocity derived from altimeter data exhibits declining subpolar gyre circulation. Combining the data from earlier satellites, we find that subpolar circulation may have been weaker in the late 1990s than in the late 1970s and 1980s. Direct current-meter observations in the boundary current of the Labrador Sea support the weakening circulation trend of the 1990s and, together with hydrographic data, show that the mid- to late 1990s decline extends deep in the water column. Analysis of the local surface forcing suggests that the 1990s buoyancy forcing has a dynamic effect consistent with altimetric and hydrographic observations: A weak thermohaline forcing allows the decay of the domed structure of subpolar isopycnals and weakening of circulation.

Arctic Ocean model simulations have revealed that the Arctic Ocean has a basin wide oscillation with cyclonic and anticyclonic circulation anomalies (Arctic Ocean Oscillation; AOO) which has a prominent decadal variability. This study explores how the simulated AOO affects the Arctic Ocean stratification and its relationship to the sea ice cover variations. The simulation uses the Princeton Ocean Model coupled to sea ice. The surface forcing is based on NCEP-NCAR Reanalysis and its climatology, of which the latter is used to force the model spin-up phase. Our focus is to investigate the competition between ocean dynamics and ice formation/melt on the Arctic basin-wide fresh water balance. We find that changes in the Atlantic water inflow can explain almost all of the simulated fresh water anomalies in the main Arctic basin. The Atlantic water inflow anomalies are an essential part of AOO, which is the wind driven barotropic response to the Arctic Oscillation (AO). The baroclinic response to AO, such as Ekman pumping in the Beaufort Gyre, and ice meldfreeze anomalies in response to AO are less significant considering the whole Arctic fresh water balance.

[1] Sea level is a natural integral indicator of climate variability. It reflects changes in practically all dynamic and thermodynamic processes of terrestrial, oceanic, atmospheric, and cryospheric origin. The use of estimates of sea level rise as an indicator of climate change therefore incurs the difficulty that the inferred sea level change is the net result of many individual effects of environmental forcing. Since some of these effects may offset others, the cause of the sea level response to climate change remains somewhat uncertain. This paper is focused on an attempt to provide first-order answers to two questions, namely, what is the rate of sea level change in the Arctic Ocean, and furthermore, what is the role of each of the individual contributing factors to observed Arctic Ocean sea level change? In seeking answers to these questions we have discovered that during the period 1954–1989 the observed sea level over the Russian sector of the Arctic Ocean is rising at a rate of approximately 0.123 cm yr � 1 and that after correction for the process of glacial isostatic adjustment this rate is approximately 0.185 cm yr � 1 . There are two major causes of this rise. The first is associated with the steric effect of ocean expansion. This effect is responsible for a contribution of approximately 0.064 cm yr � 1 to the total rate of rise (35%). The second most important factor is related to the ongoing decrease of sea level atmospheric pressure over the Arctic Ocean, which contributes 0.056 cm yr � 1 , or approximately 30% of the net positive sea level trend. A third contribution to the sea level increase involves wind action and the increase of cyclonic winds over the Arctic Ocean, which leads to sea level rise at a rate of 0.018 cm yr � 1 or approximately 10% of the total. The combined effect of the sea level rise due to an increase of river runoff and the sea level fall due to a negative trend in precipitation minus evaporation over the ocean is close to 0. For the Russian sector of the Arctic Ocean it therefore appears that approximately 25% of the trend of 0.185 cm yr � 1 , a contribution of 0.048 cm yr � 1 , may be due to the effect of increasing Arctic Ocean mass. INDEX TERMS: 3309 Meteorology and Atmospheric Dynamics: Climatology (1620); 4207 Oceanography: General: Arctic and Antarctic oceanography; 4255 Oceanography: General: Numerical modeling; 4532 Oceanography: Physical: General circulation; 4556 Oceanography: Physical: Sea level variations; KEYWORDS: Arctic, sea level rise, decadal variability, steric effects, inverted barometer effect, glacial isostatic adjustment