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Trapped lee waves and turbulent rotor activity are a hazard for aviation, so forecasters must take into account the likelihood of lee wave activity when advising aviation personnel. The UK Met Office’s operational high resolution Numerical Weather Prediction model, UKV, resolves lee wave activity but there is currently no automated operational way to recognise such regions directly from the high resolution UKV data, short of a forecaster looking at the data themselves. If lee waves can be detected from the UKV data, we can use this output to gain a better understanding of lee waves and their impact over Britain and Ireland. For example, over which regions are lee waves likely to form? Which atmospheric conditions are the most conducive to lee wave propagation? A machine learning (ML) model, a U-Net, was trained to identify and segment lee waves, and then retrained to derive characteristics about the waves (orientation, wavelength) from the model data. The wave amplitudes are also extracted using the wave mask from the segmentation model. These ML models were then applied to a 30 year dataset (1982 – 2012) of high resolution NWP output, driven by ERA-Interim data. From this, the location and characteristics of lee waves over Britain and Ireland from within this time period were extracted. In this presentation, we explore the climatology of lee waves in the data over this period, including the relationship between waves and the orography; frequency of waves; seasonal effects; the effects of weather patterns on waves; and diurnal effects.

The representation of orographic drag remains a major source of uncertainty for numerical weather prediction (NWP) and climate models. Its accuracy depends on contributions from both the model grid‐scale orography and the subgrid‐scale orography (SSO). Different models use different source orography data sets and different methodologies to derive these orography fields. This study presents the first comparison of orography fields across several operational global NWP models. It also investigates the sensitivity of an orographic drag parameterization to the intermodel spread in SSO fields and the resulting implications for representing the Northern Hemisphere winter circulation in a NWP model. The intermodel spread in both the grid‐scale orography and the SSO fields is found to be considerable. This is due to differences in the underlying source data set employed and in the manner in which this data set is processed (in particular how it is smoothed and interpolated) to generate the model fields. The sensitivity of parameterized orographic drag to the intermodel variability in SSO fields is shown to be considerable and dominated by the influence of two SSO fields: the standard deviation and the mean gradient of the SSO. NWP model sensitivity experiments demonstrate that the intermodel spread in these fields is of first‐order importance to the intermodel spread in parameterized surface stress, and to current known systematic model biases. The revealed importance of the SSO fields supports careful reconsideration of how these fields are generated, guiding future development of orographic drag parameterizations and reevaluation of the resolved impacts of orography on the flow.

A case‐study investigation of cold‐air pool (CAP) evolution in hilly terrain is conducted using field measurements made during IOP 16 of the COLd‐air Pool EXperiment (COLPEX). COLPEX was designed to study cold‐air pooling in small‐scale valleys typical of the UK (∼100–200 m deep, ∼1 km wide). The synoptic conditions during IOP 16 are typical of those required for CAPs to form during the night, with high pressure, clear skies and low ambient winds. Initially a CAP forms around sunset and grows uninterrupted for several hours. However, starting 4 hr after sunset, a number of interruptions to this steady cooling rate occur. Three episodes are highlighted from the observations and the cause of disruption attributed to (a) wave activity, in the form of gravity waves and/or Kelvin–Helmholtz (KH) instability, (b) increases in the above‐valley winds resulting from the development of a nocturnal low‐level jet (NLLJ), (c) shear‐induced mixing resulting from instability of the NLLJ. A weakly stable residual layer provides the conditions for wave activity during Episode 1. This residual layer is eroded by a developing NLLJ from the top down during Episode 2. The sustained increase in winds at hill‐top levels – attributed to the NLLJ – continue to disrupt the CAP through Episode 3. Although cooling is interrupted, the CAP is never completely eroded during the night. Complete CAP break‐up occurs some 3.5 hr after local sunrise. This case‐study highlights a number of meteorological phenomena that can disrupt CAP evolution even in ideal CAP conditions. These processes are unlikely to be sufficiently represented by current operational weather forecast models and can be challenging even for high‐resolution research models.

The main aim of this two-part study is to use a perturbed parameter ensemble (PPE) to select plausible and diverse variants of a relatively expensive climate model for use in climate projections. In this first part, the extent to which climate biases develop at weather forecast timescales is assessed with two PPEs, which are based on 5-day forecasts and 10-year simulations with a relatively coarse resolution (N96) atmosphere-only model. Both ensembles share common parameter combinations and strong emergent relationships are found for a wide range of variables between the errors on two timescales. These relationships between the PPEs are demonstrated at several spatial scales from global (using mean square errors), to regional (using pattern correlations), and to individual grid boxes where a large fraction of them show positive correlations. The study confirms more robustly than in previous studies that investigating the errors on weather timescales provides an affordable way to identify and filter out model variants that perform poorly at short timescales and are likely to perform poorly at longer timescales too. The use of PPEs also provides additional information for model development, by identifying parameters and processes responsible for model errors at the two different timescales, and systematic errors that cannot be removed by any combination of parameter values.

The effects of vertical wind shear on orographic gravity wave drag derived previously from inviscid linear theory are evaluated using reanalysis data. Emphasis is placed on the relative importance of uniform and directional shear (associated with first and second vertical derivatives of the wind velocity), which are theoretically predicted, respectively, to reduce and enhance the surface drag. Two levels at which the wind derivatives are estimated are considered for evaluating the shear corrections to the drag: a height just above the parametrized boundary layer height in the ECMWF model (BLH), and a height of order the standard deviation of the subgrid-scale orography elevation (SDH), adopted by previous authors. A climatology of the Richardson number (Ri) computed for the decade 2006-2015 suggests that the Antarctic region has a high incidence of low Ri values, implying high shear conditions. Shear estimated at the BLH has a relatively modest impact on the drag, whereas shear estimated at the SDH has a stronger impact. Predicted drag enhancement is more widespread than drag reduction because terms involving second wind derivatives dominate the drag correction for a larger fraction of the time than terms involving first derivatives. A comparison of climatologies of the drag corrections for horizontally elliptical mountains (which represent anisotropic subgrid-scale orography in parametrizations) and axisymmetric mountains always results in drag enhancement over Antarctica, with a maximum during the JJA season, showing qualitative robustness to both calculation height and orography anisotropy. However, this enhancement is smaller when using elliptical instead of axisymmetric orography. This is because the shear vector is predominantly oriented along mountain ridges rather than across them when the orography is anisotropic.

The parametrization of orographic drag processes is a major source of circulation uncertainty in models. The COnstraining ORographic Drag Effects (COORDE) project makes a coordinated effort to narrow this uncertainty by bringing together the modeling community to: explore the variety of orographic drag parametrizations employed in current operational models; assess the resolution sensitivity of resolved and parametrized orographic drag across models; and to validate the parametrized orographic drag in low‐resolution simulations using explicitly resolved orographic drag from high‐resolution simulations. Eleven models from eight major modeling centers are used to estimate resolved orographic drag from high‐resolution (km‐scale) simulations and parametrized orographic drag from low‐resolution simulations, typically used for seasonal forecasting (∼40 km) and climate projections (∼100 km). In most models, at both seasonal and climate resolutions, the total (resolved plus parametrized) orographic gravity wave drag over land is shown to be underestimated by a considerable amount (up to 50%) over the Northern and Southern Hemisphere and by more than 60% over the Middle East region, with respect to the resolved gravity wave drag estimated from km‐scale simulations. The km‐scale simulations also provide evidence that the parametrized surface stress and the parametrized low‐level orographic drag throughout the troposphere are overestimated in most models over the Middle East region, particularly at climate resolutions. Through this process‐based evaluation, COORDE provides model developers new valuable information on the current representation of orographic drag at seasonal and climate resolutions and the vertical partitioning of orographic low‐level and gravity wave drag.

In this paper we define the first Regional Atmosphere and Land (RAL) science configuration for kilometre-scale modelling using the Unified Model (UM) as the basis for the atmosphere and the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES) for the land. RAL1 defines the science configuration of the dynamics and physics schemes of the atmosphere and land. This configuration will provide a model baseline for any future weather or climate model developments to be described against, and it is the intention that from this point forward significant changes to the system will be documented in the literature. This reproduces the process used for global configurations of the UM, which was first documented as a science configuration in 2011. While it is our goal to have a single defined configuration of the model that performs effectively in all regions, this has not yet been possible. Currently we define two sub-releases, one for mid-latitudes (RAL1-M) and one for tropical regions (RAL1-T). The differences between RAL1-M and RAL1-T are documented, and where appropriate we define how the model configuration relates to the corresponding configuration of the global forecasting model.

The impact of local climate conditions on air temperatures during a hot summer period over the United Kingdom in 2018 is studied using simple sensitivity experiments with a state‐of‐the‐art regional numerical weather prediction system. The experiments are designed to investigate the influence of sea surface temperature (SST) and soil moisture on the air temperatures over land. They involved applying changes to the analysed SST and soil moisture patterns with magnitudes consistent with the differences between forecast analysis and climatology. The results from daily 5‐day forecasts over an 11‐day period show that a 3°C reduction in SSTs reduces the simulated air temperatures averaged over all land points by just over 1°C. Moistening the soil while using the control SSTs reduces the temperatures by a little less than 1°C on average although this can be larger than 3°C locally. While the reduction in SST impacts the daily maximum and minimum temperatures to a similar extent, the increase in soil moisture had little impact on the daily minimum temperatures.

Observations from radiosondes or from vertically pointing remote sensing profilers are often used to estimate the vertical flux of momentum due to gravity waves. For planar, monochromatic waves, these vertically integrated fluxes are equal to the phase averaged flux and equivalent to the horizontal averaging used to deduce momentum flux from aircraft data or in numerical models. Using a simple analytical solution for two-dimensional hydrostatic gravity waves over an isolated ridge, it is shown that this equivalence does not hold for mountain waves. For a vertical profile, the vertically integrated flux estimate is proportional to the horizontally integrated flux and decays with increasing distance of the profile location from the mountain. For tilted profiles, such as those obtained from radiosonde ascents, there is a further sampling error that increases as the trajectory extends beyond the localised wave field. The same sampling issues are seen when the effects of the Coriolis force on the gravity waves are taken into account. The conclusion of this work is that caution must be taken when using radiosondes or other vertical profiles to deduce mountain wave momentum fluxes.

Comprehensive high-resolution numerical weather prediction models provide a virtual laboratory for modelling the atmospheric flow over complex mountain ranges. In this study, global and regional simulations with horizontal grid spacing ranging from 2 to 32 km, focused over the northern Rocky Mountains, are used to assess the orographic blocking and gravity wave drag parametrisations employed in the Met Office Unified Model (UM) and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Integrated Forecasting System (IFS). The total, resolved and parametrised drag components in coarse-resolution simulations are compared with those in high-resolution simulations, in which the orographic drag processes are better resolved. The total surface stresses and gravity wave momentum fluxes in the free atmosphere of the global 16 km UM and IFS simulations are shown to compare well with 2 km regional simulations in terms of variability and mean. While the total gravity wave momentum flux is somewhat underestimated by both global models, its vertical distribution is well captured. The “seamlessness” of the parametrisation scheme is then assessed by comparing the total orographic stress – and its components – across several horizontal resolutions of the UM. The surface stress remains relatively constant across resolutions, such that the reduction in resolved orographic stress at coarser resolutions is compensated for by an almost equivalent increase in parametrised orographic stress. However, the parametrised orographic gravity wave momentum flux in the free atmosphere remains almost constant with resolution, failing to compensate for the lack of resolved flux at coarse resolutions. This leads to an underestimation of the total gravity wave drag at coarser resolutions. Further analysis suggests that this underestimation is due to the monochromatic wave assumption made by the gravity wave drag parametrisation scheme.

Strong winds crossing elevated terrain and descending to its lee occur over mountainous areas worldwide. Winds fulfilling these two criteria are called foehn in this paper although different names exist depending on the region, the sign of the temperature change at onset, and the depth of the overflowing layer. These winds affect the local weather and climate and impact society. Classification is difficult because other wind systems might be superimposed on them or share some characteristics. Additionally, no unanimously agreed-upon name, definition, nor indications for such winds exist. The most trusted classifications have been performed by human experts. A classification experiment for different foehn locations in the Alps and different classifier groups addressed hitherto unanswered questions about the uncertainty of these classifications, their reproducibility, and dependence on the level of expertise. One group consisted of mountain meteorology experts, the other two of master’s degree students who had taken mountain meteorology courses, and a further two of objective algorithms. Sixty periods of 48 h were classified for foehn–no foehn conditions at five Alpine foehn locations. The intra-human-classifier detection varies by about 10 percentage points (interquartile range). Experts and students are nearly indistinguishable. The algorithms are in the range of human classifications. One difficult case appeared twice in order to examine the reproducibility of classified foehn duration, which turned out to be 50% or less. The classification dataset can now serve as a test bed for automatic classification algorithms, which—if successful—eliminate the drawbacks of manual classifications: lack of scalability and reproducibility.

The accuracy with which parametrizations of orographic blocking and orographic gravity wave drag (OGWD) are able to reproduce the explicitly resolved impacts on flow over complex terrain is investigated in two models: the Met Office Unified Model (MetUM) and the European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts Integrated Forecasting System (ECMWF IFS). To this end, global and limited area short‐range forecast experiments across a range of horizontal resolutions, and their model errors relative to analyses, are assessed over two complex mountainous regions: the Himalayas and the Middle East. The impact of resolved orography on the circulation is deduced by taking the difference between high‐resolution experiments with a high (4 to 9 km) and low‐resolution (125 to 150 km) orography. This is then compared with the impact of parametrized orographic drag, deduced from global low‐resolution experiments with and without parametrized orographic drag. At resolutions ranging from tens to hundreds of kilometres, both the MetUM and ECMWF IFS exhibit too strong zonal winds relative to analyses in the lower stratosphere in the region of maximum resolved orographic gravity wave breaking, indicative of some deficiency in the parametrization of OGWD. Diagnosis of the parametrized physics and resolved dynamics tendencies across a range of OGWD parameter values reveal that this error is partly due to the manner in which the resolved dynamics interacts with the parametrized OGWD. This work introduces a method for quantifying the impacts of resolved versus parametrized orographic drag in models and highlights the importance of physics‐dynamics interactions.

Recent improvements to an algorithm to be used operationally for downscaling screen temperatures from numerical weather prediction models are described. Testing against very high resolution dynamically downscaled screen temperatures and intensive field measurements taken during the Cold-Air Pooling Experiment (COLPEX) is performed. The improvements are based on a physical understanding of the processes involved in the formation of cold-air pools (CAPs) that is informed by recent research. The algorithm includes a parameterization of sidewall sheltering effects that lead to lower temperatures in valley-bottom CAPs on clear, calm nights. Advection and adjustment over exposed hilltops results in higher screen temperatures than on flat ground but lower temperatures relative to the free air above the valley at the same elevation, and a treatment of this effect has also been developed. These processes form the major contributions to the often dramatic small-scale variations in temperature in complex terrain in stable boundary layer conditions, even when height variation is fairly shallow. The improvements result in qualitatively better reproduction of subgrid temperature patterns in complex terrain during CAPs. Statistical forecast errors are subsequently improved.

A convection-permitting multiyear regional climate simulation using the Met Office Unified Model has been run for the first time on an Africa-wide domain. The model has been run as part of the Future Climate for Africa (FCFA) Improving Model Processes for African Climate (IMPALA) project, and its configuration, domain, and forcing data are described here in detail. The model [Pan-African Convection-Permitting Regional Climate Simulation with the Met Office UM (CP4-Africa)] uses a 4.5-km horizontal grid spacing at the equator and is run without a convection parameterization, nested within a global atmospheric model driven by observations at the sea surface, which does include a convection scheme. An additional regional simulation, with identical resolution and physical parameterizations to the global model, but with the domain, land surface, and aerosol climatologies of CP4-Africa, has been run to aid in the understanding of the differences between the CP4-Africa and global model, in particular to isolate the impact of the convection parameterization and resolution. The effect of enforcing moisture conservation in CP4-Africa is described and its impact on reducing extreme precipitation values is assessed. Preliminary results from the first five years of the CP4-Africa simulation show substantial improvements in JJA average rainfall compared to the parameterized convection models, with most notably a reduction in the persistent dry bias in West Africa, giving an indication of the benefits to be gained from running a convection-permitting simulation over the whole African continent.

Mountain wave breaking in the lower stratosphere is one of the major causes of atmospheric turbulence encountered in commercial aviation, which in turn is the cause of most weather-related aircraft incidents. In the case of clear air turbulence (CAT), there are no visual clues and pilots are reliant on operational forecasts and reports from other aircraft. Traditionally mountain waves have been sub-grid-scale in global numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, but recent developments in NWP mean that some forecast centres (e.g. the UK Met Office) are now producing operational global forecasts that resolve mountain wave activity explicitly, allowing predictions of mountain wave induced turbulence with greater accuracy and confidence than previously possible. Using a bespoke turbulent kinetic energy diagnostic, the Met Office Unified Model (MetUM) is shown to produce useful forecasts of mountain CAT during three case studies over Greenland, and to outperform the current operational Met Office CAT prediction product (the World Area Forecast Centre (WAFC) London gridded CAT product) in doing so. In a long term, 17-month, verification, MetUM forecasts yield a turbulence prediction hit rate of 80% with an accompanying false alarm rate of under 40%. These skill scores are a considerable improvement on those reported for the mountain wave component of the WAFC product, although no direct comparison is available. The major implication of this work is that sophisticated global NWP models are now sufficiently advanced to provide skilful forecasts of mountain wave turbulence.

In this paper we define the first "Regional Atmosphere and Land" (RAL) science configuration for kilometre scale modelling using the UM and JULES. "RAL1" defines the science configuration of the dynamics and physics schemes of the atmosphere and land. This configuration will provide a model baseline for any future weather or climate model developments to be described against and it is the intention that from this point forward significant changes to the system will be documented in literature. This is reproducing the process used for global configurations of the UM which was first documented as a science configuration in 2011. While it is our goal to have a single defined configuration of the model that performs effectively in all regions, this has not yet been possible. Currently we define two sub-releases, one for mid-latitudes (RAL1-M) and one for tropical regions (RAL1-T). The differences between RAL1-M and RAL1-T are documented and where appropriate, we define how the model configuration relates to the corresponding configuration of the global forecasting model.

Some of the largest and most persistent circulation errors in global numerical weather prediction and climate models are attributable to the inadequate representation of the impacts of orography on the atmospheric flow. Existing parametrization approaches attempting to account for unresolved orographic processes, such as turbulent form drag, low-level flow blocking or mountain waves, have been successful to some extent. They capture the basic impacts of the unresolved orography on atmospheric circulation in a qualitatively correct way and have led to significant progress in both numerical weather prediction and climate modelling. These approaches, however, have apparent limitations and inadequacies due to poor observational evidence, insufficient fundamental knowledge and an ambiguous separation between resolved and unresolved orographic scales and between different orographic processes. Numerical weather prediction and climate modelling has advanced to a stage where these inadequacies have become critical and hamper progress by limiting predictive skill on a wide range of spatial and temporal scales. More physically based approaches are needed to quantify the relative importance of apparently disparate orographic processes and to account for their combined effects in a rational and accurate way in numerical models. We argue that, thanks to recent advances, significant progress can be made by combining theoretical approaches with observations, inverse modelling techniques and high-resolution and idealized numerical simulations.

The drag due to resolved and sub-grid flow blocking and gravity waves is examined in simulations of flow over mountainous islands at ‘grey zone’ resolutions, in which the processes are neither well resolved or fully sub-grid-scale. Simulations of flows over narrow (South Georgia) and broad (New Zealand) mountain barriers are used to determine the behaviour of resolved and parametrized pressure drag and gravity-wave momentum fluxes as a function of horizontal grid length. Analysis of the pressure drag in spectral space suggests that contributions from wavelengths shorter than 8–10 grid lengths are poorly resolved and that parametrization schemes should compensate for the missing drag from processes on these scales, rather than strictly the sub-grid scales. The model performance for South Georgia is such that the total (resolved plus parametrized) pressure drag is approximately invariant across a range of resolutions. The parametrized (resolved) drag increases (decreases) as the grid length increases and the resolved and parametrized drag become comparable when the characteristic island wavelength is approximately 8 times the grid length. This is not true when the same tuning of the drag parametrization is applied to New Zealand, in which case the parametrized drag increases too rapidly with increasing grid length. However, satisfactory results are obtained when the scheme is re-tuned and it is shown that the optimal tuning for the two islands is consistent with scaling the sub-grid orographic heights to be representative of the orography on longer length scales, of up to 10 grid lengths. The results suggest that drag schemes require orographic information on these longer scales, rather than only the sub-grid scale. At the coarsest resolutions, where the island wavelength and grid length are similar, the parametrized drag is too small because the grid boxes are increasingly treated as sea points. Possible solutions to this problem are discussed.

The Met Office has developed the Virtual Met Mast™ (VMM) tool for assessing the feasibility of potential wind farm sites. It provides site-specific climatological wind information for both onshore and offshore locations. The VMM relies on existing data from past forecasts from regional-scale numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, to which corrections are applied to account for local site complexity. The techniques include corrections to account for the enhanced roughness lengths used in NWP models to represent drag due to sub-grid orography, and downscaling methods which predict local wind acceleration over small-scale terrain. The corrected NWP data are extended to cover long periods (decades) using a technique in which the data are related to alternative long-term datasets. For locations in the UK the VMM currently relies on operational mesoscale model forecast data at 4km horizontal resolution. Predictions have been verified against observations made at typical wind turbine hub heights at over 80 sites across the UK. In general the predictions compare well with the observations. The techniques provide an efficient method for screening potential wind resource sites. Examples of how the VMM techniques can be used to produce local wind maps are also presented.

The relative contribution of resolved and parameterized surface drag towards balancing the atmospheric angular momentum flux convergence (AMFC), and their sensitivity to horizontal resolution and parameterization, are investigated in an atmospheric model. This sensitivity can be difficult to elucidate in free-running climate models, in which the AMFC varies with changing climatologies and, as a result, the relative contributions of surface terms balancing the AMFC also vary. While the sensitivity question has previously been addressed using short-range forecasts, we demonstrate that a nudging framework is an effective method for constraining the AMFC. The Met Office Unified Model is integrated at three horizontal resolutions ranging from 130 km (N96) to 25 km (N512) while relaxing the model’s wind and temperature fields towards the ERAinterim reanalysis within the altitude regions of maximum AMFC. This method is validated against short range forecasts and good agreement is found. These experiments are then used to assess the fidelity of the exchange between parameterized and resolved orographic torques with changes in horizontal resolution. Although the parameterized orographic torque reduces substantially with increasing horizontal resolution, there is little change in resolved orographic torque over 20N to 50N. The tendencies produced by the nudging routine indicate that the additional drag at lower horizontal resolution is excessive. When parameterized orographic blocking is removed at the coarsest of these resolutions, there is a lack of compensation, and even compensation of the opposite sense, by the boundary layer and resolved torques which is particularly pronounced over 20N to 50N. This study demonstrates that there is strong sensitivity in the behaviour of the resolved and parameterized surface drag over this region.

This paper examines current understanding of the influence of orographic flow dynamics on the turbulent transport of momentum and scalar quantities above complex terrain. It highlights three key low-level orographic flow phenomena governed by gravity-wave dynamics: Foehn flow, atmospheric rotors and gravity-wave modulation of the stable boundary layer. Recent observations and numerical simulations are used to illustrate how these flows can cause significant departures from the turbulent fluxes, which occur over flat terrain. Orographically forced fluxes of heat, moisture and chemical constituents are currently unaccounted for in numerical models. Moreover, whilst turbulent orographic drag parameterisation schemes are available (in some models), these do not represent the large gravity-wave scales associated with foehn dynamics; nor do they account for the spatio-temporal heterogeneity and non-local turbulence advection observed in wave-rotor dynamics or the gravity waves, which modulate turbulence in the boundary layer. The implications for numerical models, which do not resolve these flows, and for the parametrisation schemes, which should account for the unresolved fluxes, are discussed. An overarching need is identified for improved understanding of the heterogeneity in sub-grid-scale processes, such as turbulent fluxes, associated with orographic flows, and to develop new physically-based approaches for parameterizing these processes.

Mountain wave (MW) propagation and dynamics extending into the upper mesosphere accompanying weak forcing are examined using in situ and remote‐sensing measurements aboard the National Science Foundation/National Center for Atmospheric Research Gulfstream V (GV) research aircraft and the German Aerospace Center Falcon. The measurements were obtained during Falcon flights FF9 and FF10 and GV Research Flight RF22 of the Deep Propagating Gravity Wave Experiment (DEEPWAVE) performed over Mount Cook, New Zealand, on 12 and 13 July 2014. In situ measurements revealed both trapped lee waves having zonal wavelengths of λₓ ~ 12 km and less, and larger‐scale, vertically propagating MWs primarily at λₓ ~ 20–60 km and ~100–300 km extending from west to ~400 km east of Mount Cook. GV Rayleigh lidar measurements from 25‐ to 60‐km altitudes showed that the weak forcing and zonal winds that increased from ~12 m/s at 12 km to ~40 and 130 m/s at 30 and 55 km, respectively, enabled largely linear MW propagation and strong amplitude growth with altitude into the mesosphere. GV Na lidar and airglow imager measurements revealed an extensive MW response from ~70 to 87 km with large amplitudes and vertical displacements at λₓ ~ 40–300 km but with both decreasing with altitude approaching a critical level near 90 km. These MWs exhibited large‐scale MW breaking and among the largest sustained momentum fluxes observed in the mesosphere. UK Met Office Unified Model simulations of the RF22 MW event captured many aspects of the observed MW field and revealed that despite the dominant large‐scale MW responses in the stratosphere, the major momentum fluxes accompanied smaller‐scale waves.

Analysis of a high-resolution, convection-permitting simulation of the tropical Indian Ocean has revealed empirical relationships between precipitation and gravity wave vertical momentum flux on grid scales typical of earth system models. Hence, the authors take a rough functional form, whereby the wave flux source spectrum has an amplitude proportional to the square root of total precipitation, to represent gravity wave source strengths in the Met Office global model’s spectral nonorographic scheme. Key advantages of the new source are simplicity and responsiveness to changes in convection processes without dependence upon model-specific details of their representation. Thus, the new source scheme is potentially a straightforward adaptation for a class of spectral gravity wave schemes widely used for current state-of-the-art earth system models. Against an invariant source, the new parameterized source generates launch-level flux amplitudes with greater spatial and temporal variability, producing probability density functions for absolute momentum flux over the ocean that have extended tails of large-amplitude, low-occurrence events. Such distributions appear more realistic in comparison with reported balloon observations. Source intermittency at the launch level affects mean fluxes at higher levels in two ways: directly, as a result of upward propagation of the new source variation, and indirectly, through changes in filtering characteristics that arise from intermittency. Initial assessment of the new scheme in the Met Office global model indicates an improved representation of the quasi-biennial oscillation and sensitivity that offers potential for further impact in the future.

The formation of cold air pools in valleys under stable conditions represents an important challenge for numerical weather prediction (NWP). The challenge is increased when the valleys that dominate cold pool formation are on scales unresolved by NWP models, which can lead to substantial local errors in temperature forecasts. In this study a 2-month simulation is presented using a nested model configuration with a finest horizontal grid spacing of 100 m. The simulation is compared with observations from the recent COLd air Pooling Experiment (COLPEX) project and the model's ability to represent cold pool formation, and the surface energy balance is assessed. The results reveal a bias in the model long-wave radiation that results from the assumptions made about the sub-grid variability in humidity in the cloud parametrization scheme. The cloud scheme assumes relative humidity thresholds below 100 % to diagnose partial cloudiness, an approach common to schemes used in many other models. The biases in radiation, and resulting biases in screen temperature and cold pool properties are shown to be sensitive to the choice of critical relative humidity, suggesting that this is a key area that should be improved for very high-resolution modeling.

Numerical models used for low-resolution weather and climate simulations are unable to produce enough orographic rain enhancement via the seeder–feeder effect during the passage of frontal systems when the orography is not sufficiently well represented. This article describes the development of a simple parametrization scheme to remedy this problem. The scheme estimates the increase in the grid-box mean cloud liquid-water mixing ratio that would result from vertical displacements produced by unresolved hills, accounting for regions where the actual surface is both higher and lower than the model surface. Using idealized two-dimensional simulations of neutrally stratified flow over a Gaussian-shaped ridge resolved to varying degrees, the new scheme was shown to increase the total (resolved plus parametrized) orographic water towards that produced over a well-resolved hill, with good agreement for a wide range of hill sizes. This subgrid orographic water can be used by a microphysics parametrization scheme to enhance the growth of rain (or snow) via accretion. In simulations with a constant rain rate into the top of the domain, the surface orographic rain rate was increased over a small completely subgrid hill by up to 90%, giving much better agreement with the simulations over a well-resolved hill. The scheme also increases the rain produced by flow over large subgrid mountains if the resolved cloud is able to produce some rain via autoconversion.

High-resolution simulations of flows over South Georgia (South Atlantic) are used to increase understanding of the likely influence of small isolated mountainous islands on the large-scale flow and to ascertain the extent to which parametrization schemes can account for the missing drag in models where such islands are only partially resolved. Long-duration (1 month) austral winter forecasts with a horizontal grid spacing of 1.5 km are used to quantify the mountain-wave momentum fluxes generated by the island and the low-level drag associated with flow-blocking dynamics. The characteristics of the drag, such as the occurrence of high and low drag states, its dependence on wind direction and the spectral contributions to the mountain-wave momentum flux, are considered. Flow splitting and low-level wave breaking are shown to be responsible for wake regions that extend for hundreds of kilometres from the island. Regions of deceleration are also evident in the stratosphere, due to mountain-wave dissipation. The extent to which an orographic drag parametrization scheme can reproduce the drag is investigated by comparison with coarse-resolution (15 km grid spacing) simulations in which the orography is poorly resolved and a large proportion of the drag is parametrized. It is demonstrated that the total of the resolved plus parametrized drag in these simulations closely resembles that at high resolution, although it is underpredicted during instances of high drag. Simple modifications to the scheme, which enhance the drag when the low-level flow is approximately normal to the major axis of the subgrid orography, are shown to rectify this. The study demonstrates that, at least for relatively simple isolated mountain ranges, the drag and mountain-wave momentum fluxes can be predicted in a deterministic sense by a well-tuned parametrization scheme of suitable complexity, although inclusion of stochastic effects might lead to yet further improvements.

We describe Global Atmosphere 7.0 and Global Land 7.0 (GA7.0/GL7.0): the latest science configurations of the Met Office Unified Model and JULES land surface model developed for use across weather and climate timescales. GA7.0 and GL7.0 include incremental developments and targeted improvements that between them address four critical errors identified in previous configurations: excessive precipitation biases over India, warm/moist biases in the tropical tropopause layer, a source of energy non-conservation in the advection scheme and excessive surface radiation biases over the Southern Ocean. They also include two new parametrisations, namely the UKCA Glomap-mode aerosol scheme and the JULES multi-layer snow scheme, which improve the fidelity of the simulation and were required for the coupled climate models and Earth system models that will use these configurations in submissions to CMIP6. In addition, we describe the GA7.1 branch configuration, which reduces an overly negative anthropogenic aerosol effective radiative forcing in GA7.0, whilst maintaining the quality of simulations of the present-day climate. GA7.1/GL7.0 will form the physical atmosphere/land component in the HadGEM3-GC3.1 and UKESM1 climate models.

The DEEPWAVE (deep-propagating wave experiment) campaign was designed for an airborne and ground-based exploration of gravity waves from their tropospheric sources up to their dissipation at high altitudes. It was performed in and around New Zealand from 24 May till 27 July 2014, being the first comprehensive field campaign of this kind. A variety of airborne instruments was deployed onboard the research aircraft NSF/NCAR Gulfstream V (GV) and the DLR Falcon. Additionally, ground-based measurements were conducted at different sites across the southern island of New Zealand, including the DLR Rayleigh lidar located at Lauder (45.04 S, 169.68 E). We focus on the intensive observing period (IOP) 10 on the 4 July 2014, when strong WSW winds of about 40 m/s at 700 hPa provided intense forcing conditions for mountain waves. At tropopause level, the horizontal wind exceeded 50 m/s and favored the vertical propagation of gravity waves into the stratosphere. The DLR Rayleigh Lidar measured temperature fluctuations with peak-to-peak amplitudes of about 20 K in the mesosphere (60 km to 80 km MSL) over a period of more than 10 hours. Two research flights were conducted by the DLR Falcon (Falcon Flight 04 and 05) during this period with straight transects (Mt. Aspiring 2a) over New Zealand´s Alps at three different flight-levels around the tropopause (approx. 11 km MSL). These research flights were coordinated with the GV (Research Flight 16) where the largest mountain wave amplitudes at flight-level (approx. 13 km MSL) were measured during DEEPWAVE. Additionally a first analysis of Falcon's in-situ flight-level data revealed amplitudes in the vertical wind larger than 4 m/s at all altitudes in the vicinity of the highest peaks of the Southern Alps. Here, we present a comprehensive picture of the gravity wave characteristics and propagation properties during this interesting gravity wave event. We use the airborne observations combined with a comprehensive set of ground-based measurements consisting of 13 radiosoundings (1.5 hourly interval) together with the DLR Rayleigh lidar. To cover the altitude range from the troposphere to the mesosphere, high-resolution (1 hourly) ECMWF analyses and forecasts are used to estimate the propagation conditions of the excited mountain waves. The goal of our investigation is to find out whether the large amplitude mesospheric gravity waves are caused by the strong tropospheric forcing.

Following previous work on an inherently mass-conserving semi-implicit (SI) semi-Lagrangian (SL) discretization of the two-dimensional (2D) shallow-water equations and 2D vertical slice equations, that approach is here extended to the 3D deep-atmosphere, non-hydrostatic global equations. As with the reduced-dimension versions of this model, an advantage of the approach is that it preserves the same basic structure as a standard, non-mass-conserving, SISL version of the model. Additionally, the model is simply switchable to hydrostatic and/or shallow-atmosphere forms. It is also designed to allow simple switching between various geometries (Cartesian, spherical, spheroidal). The resulting mass-conserving model is applied to a standard set of test problems for such models in spherical geometry and compared with results from the standard SISL version of the model.

A numerical model simulation of the formation of a cold pool within a narrow valley during a clear calm night is presented. The results are compared with measurements made during the COLd air Pooling EXperiment (COLPEX). It is demonstrated that the model provides a realistic simulation of the observed cold pool. The cold pool begins to form approximately 1.5 hours before sunset, when the near-surface air within the valley starts to cool more rapidly than the air on the surrounding hills. The model potential temperature budget is used to determine which physical processes are most important for the evolution of the cold pool. The results show that sheltering provided by the valley causes a turbulent heat flux divergence over the lowest 5 m above the valley floor, which is large compared with the other terms in the budget. This causes relatively rapid cooling of the air adjacent to the ground. On the surrounding hills the turbulent heat flux divergence is larger than in the valley, but the enhanced cooling this provides is approximately balanced by an almost equally large warming tendency from advection. The net effect of these two terms is small compared with that in the valley and therefore the cooling rate is smaller. Above 5 m, the cooling in the valley is dominated by local transport of cold air away from the surface into the interior valley atmosphere.

The Met Office Unified Model has been adapted to run with a 100 m horizontal grid length for a region of complex terrain whose valleys are too narrow to be represented in the operational forecast (1.5 km grid length) model. Forecasts of temperatures are compared with observations from the COLd air Pooling EXperiment. The model provides a realistic representation of valley cold pools which form during stable nights, although the predictions are shown to be sensitive to vertical resolution. Reducing the vertical grid spacing near the surface results in lower night-time temperatures and larger, more realistic, valley–hill temperature contrasts.

Observations from the recent COLd-air Pooling EXperiment (COLPEX) field campaign are used to relate the intensity of cold pools within two small valleys (O(100 m) depth and O(1 km) width) to flow conditions within the airmass passing over the valley. The temperature structure of the cold pools is examined using transects of ground-based sensors through the valleys and radiosonde releases from within the valley, in order to evaluate simple two-dimensional concepts of cold-pool formation due to sheltering. The cold-pool spatial and temporal structure is found to be consistent between different nights when strong cold pools occurred. Initially a sharp surface inversion occurs similarly at all points within the valley, with isentropes roughly terrain-parallel. The inversion layer at the bottom of the valley then grows deeper, spreading over the bottom portion of the valley, and cross-valley isentropes eventually become horizontal. By defining appropriate measures of the relative temperature drop within the cold pool, and non-dimensional valley depth diagnosed with respect to the speed and stability of the approaching flow, the measurements are shown to be consistent with previous relationships determined for simple two-dimensional valleys.

We describe Global Atmosphere 6.0 and Global Land 6.0 (GA6.0/GL6.0): the latest science configurations of the Met Office Unified Model and JULES (Joint UK Land Environment Simulator) land surface model developed for use across all timescales. Global Atmosphere 6.0 includes the ENDGame (Even Newer Dynamics for General atmospheric modelling of the environment) dynamical core, which significantly increases mid-latitude variability improving a known model bias. Alongside developments of the model's physical parametrisations, ENDGame also increases variability in the tropics, which leads to an improved representation of tropical cyclones and other tropical phenomena. Further developments of the atmospheric and land surface parametrisations improve other aspects of model performance, including the forecasting of surface weather phenomena. We also describe GA6.1/GL6.1, which includes a small number of long-standing differences from our main trunk configurations that we continue to require for operational global weather prediction. Since July 2014, GA6.1/GL6.1 has been used by the Met Office for operational global numerical weather prediction, whilst GA6.0/GL6.0 was implemented in its remaining global prediction systems over the following year.

Rain gauge observations show that when averaged over a large number of cases of frontal systems passing over the UK, strong orographic rain enhancement occurs on the lee slopes of the first hills encountered by the southwesterly flow in the warm sector. The operational forecasts using 1.5 km grid spacing produced realistic looking mean rainfall patterns over the Lake District and Wales, with an area-averaged rain accumulation error of less than 2%. Model-level rain rates increase with decreasing altitude consistent with the seeder-feeder mechanism. Increasing the horizontal grid spacing in the operational weather forecast model decreases the amount of rain produced over the hills, thereby reducing forecast accuracy. The area-averaged rain accumulations are 11–24% smaller than observed at 12 km grid spacing and 33–48% smaller than observed at 40 km grid spacing. In additional simulations of the 15 January 2011 case over the Lake District at 1.5 km grid spacing, replacing the orography with that used by the 12 and 40 km models reduced the area-averaged rain accumulations by 10 and 23% respectively. These changes were due to reduced cloud water and ice mixing ratios over the lower hills resulting in slower increases in rain rate with decreasing altitude. It is demonstrated that neglecting the horizontal advection of falling rain drops results in too much rain falling on the windward slope and not enough falling on the lee slopes. Copyright © 2012 British Crown Copyright, the Met Office. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

The downslope windstorm during intensive observation period (IOP) 6 was the most severe that was detected during the Terrain-Induced Rotor Experiment (T-REX) in Owens Valley in the Sierra Nevada of California. Cross sections of vertical motion in the form of a composite constructed from aircraft data spanning the depth of the troposphere are used to link the winds experienced at the surface to the changing structure of the mountain-wave field aloft. Detailed analysis of other observations allows the role played by a passing occluded front, associated with the rapid intensification (and subsequent cessation) of the windstorm, to be studied. High-resolution, nested modeling using the Met Office Unified Model (MetUM) is used to study qualitative aspects of the flow and the influence of the front, and this modeling suggests that accurate forecasting of the timing and position of both the front and strong mountaintop winds is crucial to capture the wave dynamics and accompanying windstorm. Meanwhile, far ahead of the front, simulated downslope winds are shallow and foehnlike, driven by the thermal contrast between the upstream and valley air mass. The study also highlights the difficulties of capturing the detailed interaction of weather systems with large and complex orography in numerical weather prediction.

During stable nighttime periods, large variations in temperature and visibility often occur over short distances in regions of only moderate topography. These are of great practical significance and yet pose major forecasting challenges because of a lack of detailed understanding of the processes involved and because crucial topographic variations are often not resolved in current forecast models. This paper describes a field and numerical modeling campaign, Cold-Air Pooling Experiment (COLPEX), which addresses many of the issues. The observational campaign was run for 15 months in Shropshire, United Kingdom, in a region of small hills and valleys with typical ridge–valley heights of 75–150 m and valley widths of 1–3 km. The instrumentation consisted of three sites with instrumented flux towers, a Doppler lidar, and a network of 30 simpler meteorological stations. Further instrumentation was deployed during intensive observation periods including radiosonde launches from two sites, a cloud droplet probe, ...

Three-dimensional simulations of the daytime thermally induced valley wind system for an idealized valley–plain configuration, obtained from nine nonhydrostatic mesoscale models, are compared with special emphasis on the evolution of the along-valley wind. The models use the same initial and lateral boundary conditions, and standard parameterizations for turbulence, radiation, and land surface processes. The evolution of the mean along-valley wind (averaged over the valley cross section) is similar for all models, except for a time shift between individual models of up to 2 h and slight differences in the speed of the evolution. The analysis suggests that these differences are primarily due to differences in the simulated surface energy balance such as the dependence of the sensible heat flux on surface wind speed. Additional sensitivity experiments indicate that the evolution of the mean along-valley flow is largely independent of the choice of the dynamical core and of the turbulence parameterization scheme. The latter does, however, have a significant influence on the vertical structure of the boundary layer and of the along-valley wind. Thus, this ideal case may be useful for testing and evaluation of mesoscale numerical models with respect to land surface–atmosphere interactions and turbulence parameterizations.

Gravity-wave-induced temperature fluctuations predicted by a mountain-wave parametrization scheme are compared with observed stratospheric temperature fluctuations from the High-Resolution Dynamics Limb Sounder (HIRDLS) instrument. The focus of the study is on the southern Andes region during the month of August 2006. The comparison reveals that while the mean amplitude of temperature fluctuations predicted by the parametrization is broadly consistent with those observed by HIRDLS, there are significant differences for individual cases. Ray-tracing calculations performed for these cases suggest that these differences are likely to be associated with horizontal propagation of mountain waves, which is not represented by current column-based parametrization schemes. The results presented in this note suggest that this is a deficiency of mountain-wave parametrization schemes that may affect models at resolutions typical of both climate and numerical weather prediction modelling. Copyright © 2011 Royal Meteorological Society and British Crown Copyright, the Met Office

Current operational numerical weather prediction models potentially have sufficient spatial and temporal resolution to resolve much of the inertia-gravity wave spectrum (e.g. horizontal wavelengths in the region of 100–1000 km typically, and even longer zonal wavelengths in the Tropics). The effects of gravity wave dynamics are usually considered to be subgrid-scale and parametrizable, either as stationary, mountain waves or travelling, non-orographic waves. Simple techniques for isolating these waves in both the Met Office and ECMWF forecast models are presented and their associated wave fluxes (including three-dimensional Eliassen–Palm fluxes) are computed for August 2006. In addition, a limited-area configuration of the Met Office Unified model with 4 km horizontal resolution is run over a region that includes the southern half of the Andes mountain range. Spectral decompositions of the wave energy and momentum fluxes show a distinct peak in power at horizontal wavelengths of about 400 km, irrespective of whether a 4 or 40 km grid is used, although about one half of the power resides in wavelengths shorter than 200 km. The computed Eliassen–Palm fluxes are shown to be similar to the net parametrized gravity wave drag, although the latter are too widespread and uniform over the oceans, reflecting the absence of geographical source variation. Comparison of the time mean temperature amplitude of the waves in the mid-stratosphere with estimates derived from limb-sounder satellite measurements from the HIRDLS project suggests that forecast models are capable of capturing the correct overall strength and distribution of gravity wave activity. Copyright © 2011 British Crown copyright, the Met Office. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

A new downscaling method has been developed to improve forecasts of near-surface temperature. This involves applying a correction to forecast temperatures to account for the difference in height between the terrain in the forecast model and the real terrain, using an estimate of the lapse rate of temperature. The strongest variations in lapse rate are found to occur overnight, being a function of cloud cover and geostrophic wind speed. These variables similarly influence the night time lapse rate in the UK Met Office Unified Model forecast at 4 km resolution. Therefore, a simple algorithm has been employed to estimate the lapse rate at a given location, based on forecast model temperature and elevation fields. The algorithm has a positive impact on performance in stable conditions, compared to assuming an adiabatic lapse rate at all times. © Crown Copyright 2010. Reproduced with the permission of the Controller of HMSO. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd

This study focuses on the accuracy of simple methods used in parametrization schemes for predicting the drag due to orographically excited gravity waves (mountain waves). Linear and nonlinear model simulations of flow over a long, low two-dimensional ridge are used to evaluate the importance of internal wave reflection and nonlinearity. A long ridge with a small non-dimensional mountain height and a gentle slope is used so that, in the absence of vertical variations in the background profile of wind and stability, the mountain-wave drag is accurately predicted by linear theory. Simulations conducted for simple idealised profiles in which the background stability has a two-layer (troposphere–stratosphere) structure show that whilst the drag is accurately predicted by linear solutions, interference effects due to partial wave reflection can alter the drag significantly. Estimates of the drag which are based solely on low-level measurements of wind and stability, such as those in current operational mountain-wave parametrizations, cannot account for this effect. Results from simulations based on more complex realistic profiles, obtained from both radiosondes and a forecast model, show that the linear and nonlinear drag predictions can differ significantly. This implies that linear solutions can be inaccurate even when they are calculated for the full atmospheric profile (rather than being based on low-level average quantities). It is hypothesised that, in this case, the nonlinearity is due to resonant triad interactions which occur when there are oscillations in the Scorer parameter with a wavelength half that of the dominant vertically propagating mountain wave. The implications of the results for mountain-wave drag parametrization are discussed. © Crown Copyright 2010. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

A series of surveys was carried out with an instrumented vehicle along the A361 in south-west England between 20 January and 4 April 2007, primarily during clear calm nights in order to observe the formation of pools of cold air in valleys. High resolution simulations were performed for three of these cases using the Met Office Unified Model (MetUM®), which was shown to successfully reproduce many of the features of the observed along-route variations in air temperature. Analysis of the observations and the results of the simulations suggest that the cooling of air within these moderate valleys was the result of sheltering, which reduces the turbulent flux of heat down from aloft. Valleys that experience a large degree of cooling are those that become fully decoupled, allowing the near-surface air within the valley to cool rapidly in response to the surface longwave radiative cooling. The behaviour of the valley cooling intensity is shown to be similar to that observed in idealised simulations of the sheltering mechanism (Vosper and Brown, 2008, Boundary-Layer Meteorol 127:429–448).

The extent to which the drag due to flow blocking by mountains is affected by height variations in the static stability is examined using a series of numerical simulations. The results are used to investigate how best to estimate the depth-averaged upwind static stability for the purposes of parametrizing the drag. © Crown Copyright 2009. Reproduced with the permission of HMSO. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

The Terrain-Induced Rotor Experiment (T-REX) is a coordinated international project, comprised of an observational field campaign and a research program, focused on the investigation of atmospheric rotors and closely related phenomena in complex terrain. The T-REX field campaign took place during March and April 2006 in the lee of the southern Sierra Nevada in eastern California. Atmospheric rotors have been traditionally defined as quasi-two-dimensional atmospheric vortices that form parallel to and downwind of a mountain ridge under conditions conducive to the generation of large-amplitude mountain waves. Intermittency, high-levels of turbulence, and complex small-scale internal structure characterize rotors, which are known hazards to general aviation. The objective of the T-REX field campaign was to provide an unprecedented comprehensive set of in situ and remotely-sensed meteorological observations from the ground to upper troposphere-lower stratosphere (UTLS) altitudes for the documentation of the spatio-temporal characteristics and internal structure of a tightly coupled system consisting of an atmospheric rotor, terrain-induced internal gravity waves, and a complex-terrain boundary layer. In addition, T-REX had several ancillary objectives including the studies of UTLS chemical distribution in the presence of mountain waves and complex-terrain boundary layer in the absence of waves and rotors. This overview provides a background of the project including the information on its science objectives, experimental design and observational systems, along with highlights of key observations obtained during the field campaign.

A series of two-dimensional mixing length model simulations of boundary-layer flow over idealised ridges of varying steepness are conducted to investigate the effect of surface heating on flow separation. The relatively simple numerical approach used permits characterisation of the influence of heating for a variety of initial conditions and parameter values. For steep terrain, increased surface heating is shown to enhance the strength and extent of hill-induced separation. For more moderate terrain, a critical heating strength is required for a given hill width and background flow speed before separation is initiated. Sensitivity tests show the results to be insensitive to model parameters or the choice of mixing length. The results are accounted for using a scaling analysis in terms of a non-dimensional stability parameter.