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Citizen science monitoring of common birds often involves volunteers visiting selected survey locations twice per year, with interannual differences in the number of birds detected used to infer population trends. Two processes, changes in the timing of migration and breeding in response to climate change, and changes in the timing of surveys by volunteers, may cause variation in the number of birds detected, leading to biases in inferred population trends. We assessed the magnitude of potential biases using the UK Breeding Bird Survey, comparing survey timing, species phenologies and apparent trend biases between 1994–98 and 2013–17. To control for large-scale geographic effects, we focussed on a subset of 888 surveyed 1 km squares in South-East England. Survey dates became significantly earlier, advancing by 2–4 days on average. We calculated seasonal patterns of bird abundance for 68 species. After standardising these to remove long-term abundance trends, median detection dates were advanced by 0.82 days on average. At the species level, the majority of changes were ± 2 days and only five species showed a significant advancement in median detection date. However, species’ phenological changes alone are capable of inducing between an 8% suppression and 21% enhancement of species’ trends, although the majority are ± 2%. Effects of a similar magnitude are apparent if survey timings are also allowed to change, although different species are affected. Small modifications to the statistical model used to generate trends can control for changes in survey timing, but without additional survey visits, or using data from other sources, we cannot currently control for seasonal variation in detectability. Although the average effects shown here are small, biases could become increasingly important for some species, and we recommend organisers of biodiversity monitoring schemes assess whether their methods are resistant to variations in species phenology and survey timing.

The transmission of pathogens across the interface between wildlife and livestock presents a challenge to the development of effective surveillance and control measures. Wild birds, especially waterbirds such as the Anseriformes and Charadriiformes are considered to be the natural hosts of Avian Influenza (AI), and are presumed to pose one of the most likely vectors for incursion of AI into European poultry flocks. We have developed a generic quantitative risk map, derived from the classical epidemiological risk equation, to describe the relative, spatial risk of disease incursion into poultry flocks via wild birds. We then assessed the risk for AI incursion into British flocks. The risk map suggests that the majority of AI incursion risk is highly clustered within certain areas of Britain, including in the east, the south west and the coastal north-west of England. The clustering of high risk areas concentrates total risk in a relatively small land area; the top 33% of cells contribute over 80% of total incursion risk. This suggests that targeted risk-based sampling in a relatively small geographical area could be a much more effective and cost-efficient approach than representative sampling. The generic nature of the risk map method, allows rapid updating and application to other diseases transmissible between wild birds and poultry.

Organisations acting to conserve and protect species across large spatial scales prioritise to optimise use of resources. Spatial conservation prioritization tools typically focus on identifying areas containing species groups of interest, with few tools used to identify the best areas for single-species conservation, in particular, to conserve currently widespread but declining species. A single-species prioritization framework, based on temporal and spatial patterns of occupancy and abundance, was developed to spatially prioritize conservation action for widespread species by identifying smaller areas to work within to achieve predefined conservation objectives. We demonstrate our approach for 29 widespread bird species in the UK, using breeding bird atlas data from two periods to define distribution, relative abundance and change in relative abundance. We selected occupied 10-km squares with abundance trends that matched species conservation objectives relating to maintaining or increasing population size or range, and then identified spatial clusters of squares for each objective using a Getis-Ord-Gi* or near neighbour analysis. For each species, the framework identified clusters of 20-km squares that enabled us to identify small areas in which species recovery action could be prioritized. Our approach identified a proportion of species’ ranges to prioritize for species recovery. This approach is a relatively quick process that can be used to inform single-species conservation for any taxa if sufficiently fine-scale occupancy and abundance information is available for two or more time periods. This is a relatively simple first step for planning single-species focussed conservation to help optimise resource use.

Housing a growing human population is a global issue and designing environmentally friendly developments requires identifying the species likely to be negatively impacted and finding mitigation solutions. Existing studies that consider fragmentation of natural habitats have limited application in countries such as Britain where a prime target for development is agricultural land where decades of intensive management have already diminished biodiversity. Here I used citizen science data on the abundance of 146 breeding and wintering birds to develop models linking abundance to human population density and habitat features. I used these as a proxy for the urbanisation process, finding that impacts of urbanisation were species-specific and context dependent. Low-density developments benefited a high proportion of birds, with wetland birds benefitting most and farmland birds least, but as human densities increased further, up to 75% of species were negatively impacted. Almost half of species currently occurring at 14 flagship residential development sites were predicted to decline based on projected human population density increases, with a third predicted to increase. Presence of wetlands, canopy cover and patches of trees all benefited certain species but efforts to identify more detailed habitat associations were hampered by collinearity among variables. I conclude that even in heavily degraded agricultural landscapes, a high proportion of species will be negatively impacted by residential development and that some will require spared land to persist in the wider landscape. As no single habitat benefited the entire bird community, urban planners wishing to design bird-friendly developments will need to make difficult decisions over which aspects of the bird community to prioritise.

MOTIVATION: We undertook large citizen science surveys of bird distributions (atlases) in Britain and Ireland, aimed at quantifying breeding bird distributions on a 20‐year cycle and wintering bird distributions on a c. 30‐year cycle. We use these to generate spatially referenced information on apparent changes in bird distributions over c. 40 years. MAIN TYPE OF VARIABLE CONTAINED: Detection of breeding and wintering bird species in grid squares during five periods, and changes in detection between periods. The combined distribution dataset contains 1,410,938 records detailing detections of 465 bird species in 3,880 grid cells in different periods. The combined distribution change dataset contains 1,297,791 records describing stability, apparent colonization or apparent extinction of individual species in grid squares between pairs of atlases spanning up to c. 40 years. SPATIAL LOCATION AND GRAIN: Grid squares (10 km × 10 km) containing land throughout Britain, Ireland, the Isle of Man and the Channel Islands. The majority of data are at 10‐km resolution, but data for rare species are summarized at 20‐ or 50‐km resolution to protect sensitive locations. TIME PERIOD: The data represent summarized detection information derived from fieldwork during five periods: the breeding seasons 1968–1972, 1988–1991 and 2008–2011, and the winters 1981/1982–1983/1984 and 2007/2008–2010/2011. MAJOR TAXA STUDIED AND LEVEL OF MEASUREMENT: Birds; their distribution derived from citizen science surveys. SOFTWARE FORMAT: Data are supplied as comma‐separated text files.

Empirical evidence from many regions suggests that most species would be least negatively affected if human food demand were met through high-yield agricultural production and conservation of nonfarm ecosystems (land sparing), rather than through wildlife-friendly farming over a larger area (land sharing). However, repeated glaciation and a long history of agriculture may lead to different results in regions such as western Europe. We compared the consequences of land sparing and land sharing on breeding bird species in 2 lowland regions of England, The Fens, with 101 species, and Salisbury Plain, with 83. We derived density-yield responses for each species and then estimated regional population size under regional food production strategies, including land sharing and land sparing, a range of intermediate strategies, and a novel mixed strategy. In both regions, more species achieved maximum regional population size under land sparing than land sharing. In The Fens, the majority of birds were loser species (estimated to have smaller populations under all food production strategies than in the preagricultural baseline scenario), whereas in Salisbury Plain the majority were winners (smaller populations in the preagricultural baseline scenario). Loser species overwhelmingly achieved maximum regional population size under land sparing, whereas winner species achieved maximum regional population size under either land sharing or an intermediate strategy, highlighting the importance of defining which groups of species are the target of conservation. A novel 3-compartment strategy (combining high-yield farming, natural habitat, and low-yield farming) often performed better than either land sharing or land sparing. Our results support intermediate or 3-compartment land-sparing strategies to maximize bird populations across lowland agricultural landscapes. To deliver conservation outcomes, any shift toward land sparing must, however, ensure yield increases are sustainable in the long term, do not entail increased negative effects on surrounding areas, and are linked to allocation of land for nature.Conservación de Aves y el Continuo de Suelo Compartido-Reservado en Paisajes Dominados por Tierras de Cultivo en las Tierras Bajas de Inglaterra Resumen La evidencia empírica proveniente de muchas regiones sugiere que la mayoría de las especies se verían menos afectadas negativamente si se cumpliera con la demanda humana de alimentos por medio de una producción agrícola de alto rendimiento y la conservación de ecosistemas no agrícolas (dosificación de suelo) en lugar de hacerlo a través de la agricultura amigable con la fauna en un área mayor (partición de suelo). Sin embargo, la glaciación repetitiva y una larga historia agrícola podrían brindar diferentes resultados en regiones como Europa occidental. Comparamos las consecuencias de la dosificación y la partición de suelo sobre especies de aves en reproducción en dos regiones de tierras bajas en Inglaterra: Los Fens, con 101 especies, y la Planicie Salisbury, con 83 especies. Derivamos las respuestas con densidad de rendimiento para cada especie y después estimamos el tamaño poblacional regional bajo estrategias regionales de producción de alimentos, incluyendo la dosificación y la partición de suelo, una gama de estrategias intermedias y una novedosa estrategia mixta. En ambas regiones, más especies alcanzaron el tamaño poblacional máximo para la región bajo la dosificación del suelo que bajo la partición del suelo. En Los Fens, la mayoría de las aves fueron especies perdedoras (se estimó que tendrían tamaños poblacionales menores bajo todas las estrategias de producción de alimento que en el escenario pre-agrícola de la línea base) mientras que en la Planicie Salisbury, la mayoría de las especies fueron ganadoras (con poblaciones más pequeñas en el escenario pre-agrícola de la línea base). Las especies perdedoras tuvieron abrumadoramente un tamaño poblacional máximo para la región bajo la dosificación de suelo, mientras que las especies ganadoras tuvieron este máximo poblacional bajo la partición de suelo o alguna estrategia intermedia, lo que resalta la importancia de la definición de cuáles grupos de especies son el objetivo de conservación. Una estrategia novedosa de tres compartimentos (combina la agricultura de alto rendimiento, el hábitat natural y la agricultura de bajo rendimiento) muchas veces tuvo un mejor desempeño que la dosificación o la partición del suelo. Nuestros resultados respaldan a las estrategias de dosificación de suelo intermedias o de tres compartimentos para maximizar las poblaciones de aves en todos los paisajes agrícolas de las tierras bajas. Para brindar resultados de conservación, cualquier cambio hacia la dosificación del suelo, sin embargo, debe asegurar que los incrementos en el rendimiento son sustentables a largo plazo, no conllevan un incremento de efectos negativos en las áreas circundantes, y que están vinculados a la asignación de suelo para la naturaleza.来自许多地区的经验证据表明, 如果人类通过高产农业和保护非农业生态系统的方式 (土地分离) 来满足粮食需求, 而不是通过在较大范围内开展野生动物友好型农业 (土地共享), 那么大多数物种受到的负面影响会是最小的。然而, 一些地区 (如西欧) 经历过多次冰川作用, 且有着悠久的农业历史, 可能在这个问题上有所不同。我们比较了英国两个低地地区土地分离和土地共享对繁殖鸟类的影响, 其中东部沼泽地区 (The Fens) 有 101 种鸟, 索尔斯堡平原 (Salisbury Plain) 有 83 种鸟。我们估计了每个物种的密度-产量响应关系, 并评估了各种区域粮食生产策略下鸟类的区域种群大小, 这些策略包括土地分离、土地共享、一系列中间型策略以及一种新型混合策略。在这两个地区, 较多物种在土地分离策略 (而不是土地共享策略) 下的区域种群大小最大。在沼泽地区, 大部分鸟类物种属于失败者 (据估计, 它们在任何粮食生产策略下的种群数量都低于未发展农业时的基线水平); 而索尔斯堡平原的大多数鸟类物种都是成功者 (未发展农业时的基线水平更低) 。失败物种绝大多数都在土地分离策略下可以达到最大区域种群数量, 而成功物种则会在土地共享或中间型策略下达到最大区域种群数量。这一结果突显了确定保护目标中鸟类类型的重要性。此外, 还存在一种新型的三区分隔策略 (结合了高产农业、自然生境和低产农业), 它的效果往往比单一的土地分离或土地共享更好。我们的结果支持选择中间型或三区分隔型土地分离策略, 以求在低地农业景观中使鸟类种群数量最大化。然而, 要取得保护成效, 还应确保在向土地分离策略的转型中, 产量的增长可长期持续、不会为周围地区带来更多负面影响, 且与自然用地的分配相关联。【翻译: 胡怡思; 审校: 聂永刚】.

Information on the status of biodiversity is crucial for species conservation and management. Large scale assessments are only feasible through citizen science but some taxa are poorly monitored because few people specialise in them. We explore alleviating this problem by using data collected for poorly monitored species as an add-on to existing bird surveys. Since 1995, participants in the annual Breeding Bird Survey have recorded the abundance of mammals during their surveys. We demonstrate the value of these data by developing spatial models of relative abundance for nine common and easily detected mammal species. Rabbit, brown hare and mountain hare all showed widespread declines. Conversely, deer showed increases throughout their ranges, with the exception of the red deer whose population was predominantly stable. The grey squirrel continues to increase in several areas. The red fox, the only carnivore with enough data, showed significant large declines. The collection of data on taxa other than the primary target has particular merit where the secondary taxa can be detected effectively by methods devised for the core survey. In such cases the data are inexpensive and inherit some of the benefits of the underlying structure and power of the core survey. However, the efficacy of the primary study design may vary for the members of secondary taxa and may not be temporally or spatially suitable for all of them. Although more volunteer training may be required, there are also opportunities to engage and enthuse people about conservation issues of other species groups.

Citizen science is increasingly recognised as one of the most cost-effective means of achieving large-scale and long-term biodiversity monitoring. Here we assess the potential for citizen scientists to contribute to the long-term monitoring of land cover, land use and habitat change through ongoing field data collection. Land cover monitoring is most commonly carried out via remote sensing or professional surveys but these can be costly, low detail or spatiotemporally limited. We used ongoing habitat data collection by citizen scientists participating in a structured survey of breeding birds to assess whether there is the potential for citizen scientists more broadly to play a role in the long-term monitoring of habitat extent and condition. Categorical habitat data has been collected annually by over 2500 volunteers as part of the UK Breeding Bird Survey since 1994 and we used this to quantify temporal variation in the reporting of different habitats in the British countryside. Where possible we validated our estimates of habitat cover and change using independent estimates from professional surveys and other datasets. We detected increases in woodland cover, in particular mixed woodland, and declines in farmland cover, particularly livestock farming. Our habitat cover estimates closely matched alternative land cover estimates but there was little correspondence in estimates of change between survey types and we discuss why discrepancies may occur. Although the data we used were not initially designed for this purpose, our results suggest that there is considerable potential to use citizen science for cost-effective identification of temporal patterns in land use, habitat-type and management in ways that could complement other methods.

1. Public data archiving (PDA) is widely advocated as a means of achieving open data standards, leading to improved data preservation, increased scientific reproducibility, and transparency, as well as additional data use. 2. Public data archiving was primarily conceived to archive data from short‐term, single‐purpose scientific studies. It is now more widely applied, including to large‐scale citizen science biodiversity recording and monitoring schemes which combine the efforts of volunteers with professional scientists. 3. This may affect the financial security of such schemes by reducing income from data and analytical services. Communication between scheme organizers and researchers may be disrupted, reducing scientific quality and impeding scheme development. It may also have an impact on the participation of some volunteers. 4. Synthesis and applications. In response to the challenges of public data archiving for citizen science biodiversity recording and monitoring schemes, the archive function of scheme organizations should be better recognized by those promoting open data principles. Increased financial support from the public sector or from commercial or academic data users may offset financial risk. Those in favour of public data archiving should do more to facilitate communication between nonscheme users and the originating schemes, while a more flexible approach to data archiving may be required to address potential impacts on volunteer participation.

In order to ensure that the placement of future wind energy developments does not conflict with important areas for bats, surveys and analyses are required to deliver a robust understanding of large-scale patterns in species’ distributions and abundance. We demonstrate that extensive presence-absence survey data can be collected for bats across a large (> 20,000 km 2 ) region of southern Scotland using volunteers supplemented with additional fieldworker effort in remote areas. We advocate a survey design that allows data to be collected for all bat species, but provide more focused analyses on three species (Leisler's bat, noctule and Nathusius' pipistrelle) that are currently considered to be at highest risk from wind turbines. We estimate that between 16% and 24% of the regional populations of these three high risk species overlap existing and approved wind farms, with 50% of this overlap concentrated at just 10% of wind farms. This emphasises the importance of new wind farm placement to minimise impact on these species. We have stratified the region according to the potential impact on bats of future wind farm development, highlighting those areas in the top 1%, 5% and 10% of risk. We conclude that there is a need for higher quality data of this type in order to inform spatial models of bat distribution and activity. As a minimum standard, researchers working on bats should prioritise the collection and use of presence-absence data with consideration of the underlying survey design and representativeness of the data collected. This can be achieved most cost-effectively by working with the public to develop large-scale acoustic monitoring schemes.

Projections of species’ distributions in future climates can aid adaptive conservation strategies. Although presence-absence or presence-only data have been extensively used for this purpose, modelling changes in spatial patterns of abundance provides a more sensitive tool for estimating species’ vulnerabilities to climate impacts. We used abundance data from citizen science bird surveys in the UK and France to predict spatial patterns of future climatic suitability throughout Great Britain for 124 breeding bird species. We project that climatic suitability of Great Britain will increase for 44% of species and decline for 9% of species by 2080. Of the latter group, most are already red-listed for their severe long-term population declines. If our suitability projections translate into population changes, by 2080, conservation listing status will worsen for 10 species and improve for 28 species. Projected changes in climatic suitability translate into net gains of species abundance in northern and western areas and high turnover in community composition throughout Britain, particularly under medium- and high-emission scenarios. In conclusion, community-wide projections of changes in climatic suitability based on abundance indicate that bird assemblages throughout Great Britain will be impacted by climate change and that species already of concern are likely to be impacted hardest. Of the species projected to benefit, the ability of currently red-listed species to respond positively to climate without other interventions is unclear.

Capsule: Across Britain, breeding Eurasian Curlew Numenius arquata are less numerous and have shown greater population declines in areas with more arable farming, woodland cover and higher generalist predator abundance.Aims: We present the first national-scale analysis of the potential drivers of Curlew population change in Britain, which is needed to guide conservation action for this globally near-threatened, declining species.Methods: Breeding Bird Survey data and environmental predictors were used to model variation in Curlew abundance in 1995–99 and 2007–11, and population change between these periods.Results: Arable farming and woodland cover were negatively associated with Curlew abundance and population declines. Curlew abundance was positively associated with extent of protected area coverage and gamebird numbers. Abundance and population change were positively associated with cooler temperatures and higher summer rainfall, but negatively associated with numbers of generalist predators.Co...

Urban land cover is the fastest growing land-use form globally and there is concern that urbanisation will negatively impact native biodiversity. Bats are ecologically diverse predators and their responses to urban development may provide insights into wider biodiversity responses to urbanisation. Developments in bat detection methods mean it is now possible for citizen scientists to collect detailed bat distribution data. The geographical and habitat coverage of such data make them ideal for addressing urban planning issues. In this paper we quantify the impact of planned housing on bat populations and evaluate possible mitigation measures. We combined data on 12 bat species collected through a large citizen science project in Norfolk, UK, with spatially explicit housing plans for the next decade and tested the impact of mitigation planning scenarios operating at different spatial scales. The planned housing was predicted to decrease occurrence or activity for all 12 bat species. Locally, these decreases could be substantial, leading to a reduction in the likelihood of occurrence from 40% to 1%. However, at a county-scale the proposed level of housing is equivalent to less than a 2% decrease in total occurrence and abundance across all species. The negative effect of planned housing could be reduced by 46% on average by preferentially building on less preferred habitats and in areas with low populations of urban-sensitive bat species. This paper demonstrates an easily transferable method for determining rich habitats where new developments should be avoided and for investigating the potential of mitigation strategies.

Summary Monitoring biodiversity over large spatial and temporal scales is crucial for assessing the impact of global changes and environmental mitigation measures. However, large-scale monitoring of invertebrates remains poorly developed despite the importance of these organisms in ecosystem functioning. Exciting possibilities applicable to professional and citizen science are offered by new recording techniques and methods of semi-automated species recognition based on sound detection. Static broad-spectrum detectors deployed to record throughout whole nights have been recommended for standardised acoustic monitoring of bats, but they have the potential to also collect acoustic data for other species groups. Large-scale deployment of such systems is only viable when combined with robust automated species identification algorithms. Here we examine the potential of such a system for detecting, identifying and monitoring bush-crickets (Orthoptera of the family Tettigoniidae). We use incidental sound recordings generated by an extensive citizen science bat survey and recordings from intensive site surveys to test a semi-automated step-wise method with a classifier for assigning species identities. We assess species’ diel activity patterns to make recommendations for survey timing and interpretation of existing nocturnal data sets and consider the feasibility of determining site occupancy. Of six species of bush-crickets, the species classifier achieved over 85% accuracy for three, speckled bush-cricket, dark bush-cricket and Roesel's bush-cricket. It should be possible to automatically scan recordings for these species with minimal manual validation. Further refinement of the classifier is required for the three remaining species, in particular for the acoustically similar short-winged conehead and long-winged conehead. Diel activity patterns are species specific and it may be necessary to adjust the hours over which the detectors record to increase detection of key species, but this must be weighed against the costs in terms of increased memory and battery use and equipment security during daytime. We conclude that with logistical support and centralised semi-automated species identification it is now possible for the public to contribute to large-scale acoustic monitoring of Orthoptera while recording bats. Further innovation of sound classifier algorithms is needed and would be aided by improved reference sound libraries from multiple locations spanning species’ ranges.

1. A key aim of ecology is to understand the drivers of ecological patterns, so that we can accurately predict the effects of global environmental change. However, in many cases predictors are measured at a finer resolution than the ecological response. We therefore require data aggregation methods that avoid loss of information on fine-grain heterogeneity. 2. We present a data-aggregation method that, unlike current approaches, reduces the loss of information on fine-grain spatial structure in environmental heterogeneity for use with coarse-grain ecological datasets. Our method contains three steps: 1) define analysis scales (predictor grain, response grain, scale-of-effect); 2) use a moving window to calculate a measure of variability in environment (predictor grain) at the process-relevant scale (scale-of-effect); and 3) aggregate the moving window calculations to the coarsest resolution (response grain). We show the theoretical basis for our method using simulated landscapes, and the practical utility with a case study. Our method is available as the grainchanger R package. 3. The simulations show that information about spatial structure is captured that would have been lost using a direct aggregation approach; and that our method is particularly useful in landscapes with spatial autocorrelation in the environmental predictor variable (e.g. fragmented landscapes), and when the scale-of-effect is small relative to the response grain. We use our data aggregation method to find the appropriate scale-of-effect of land-cover diversity on Eurasian jay (Garrulus glandarius) abundance in the UK. We then model the interactive effect of land-cover heterogeneity and temperature on G. glandarius abundance. Our method enables us quantify this interaction despite the different scales at which these factors influence G. glandarius abundance. 4. Our data aggregation method allows us to integrate variables that act at varying scales into one model with limited loss of information, which has wide applicability for spatial analyses beyond the specific ecological context considered here. Key ecological applications include being able to estimate the interactive effect of drivers that vary at different scales (such as climate and land cover), and to systematically examine the scale-dependence of the effects of environmental heterogeneity in combination with the effects of climate change on biodiversity.

The timing of migration is one of the key life-history parameters of migratory birds. It is expected to be under strong selection, to be sensitive to changing environmental conditions and to have implications for population dynamics. However, most phenological studies do not describe arrival and departure phenologies for a species in a way that is robust to potential biases, or that can be clearly related to breeding populations. This hampers our ability to understand more fully how climate change may affect species’ migratory strategies, their life histories and ultimately their population dynamics. Using generalized additive models (GAMs) and extensive large-scale data collected in the UK over a 40-year period, we present standardized measures of migration phenology for common migratory birds, and examine how the phenology of bird migration has changed in the UK since the 1960s. Arrival dates for 11 of 14 common migrants became significantly earlier, with six species advancing their arrival by more than 10 days. These comprised two species, Blackcap Sylvia atricapilla and Chiffchaff Phylloscopus collybita, which winter closest to Britain in southern Europe and the arid northern zone of Africa, Common Redstart Phoenicurus phoenicurus, which winters in the arid zone, and three hirundines (Sand Martin Riparia riparia, House Martin Delichon urbicum and Barn Swallow Hirundo rustica), which winter in different parts of Africa. Concurrently, departure dates became significantly later for four of the 14 species and included species that winter in southern Europe (Blackcap and Chiffchaff) and in humid zones of Africa (Garden Warbler Sylvia borin and Whinchat Saxicola rubetra). Common Swift Apus apus was the exception in departing significantly earlier. The net result of earlier arrival and later departure for most species was that length of stay has become significantly longer for nine of the 14 species. Species that have advanced their timing of arrival showed the most positive trends in abundance, in accordance with previous studies. Related in part to earlier arrival and the relationship above, we also show that species extending their stay in Great Britain have shown the most positive trends. Further applications of our modelling approach will provide opportunities for more robust tests of relationships between phenological change and population dynamics than have been possible previously.

Species distribution models (SDMs) are one of the most important GIScience research areas in biogeography and are the primary means by which the potential effects of climate change on species' distributions and ranges are investigated. Dispersal is an important ecological process for species responding to changing climates, however, SDMs and their subsequent spatial products rarely reflect accessibility to any future suitable environment. Dispersal-related movement can be confounded by factors that vary across landscapes and climates, as well as within and among species, and it has therefore remained difficult to parametrise in SDMs. Here we compared 20 models that have previously been used (or have the potential to be used) to represent dispersal processes in SDM to predict future range shifts in response to climate change. We assessed the different dispersal models in terms of their accuracy at predicting future distributions, as well as the uncertainty associated with their predictions. Atlas data for 50 bird species from 1988 to 1991 in Great Britain were treated as base distributions (t1), with the species' environment relationships extrapolated (using three commonly used statistical methods) to 2008â 2011 (t2). Dispersal (in the form of the 20 different models) was simulated from the base distribution (t1) to 2008-2011 (t2). The results were then combined and used to identify locations that were both abiotically suitable (obtained from the statistical methods) and accessible (obtained from the dispersal models). The accuracy of these coupled projections was assessed with the 2008-2011 atlas data (the observed t2 distribution). There was substantial variation in the accuracy of the different dispersal models, and in general, the more restrictive dispersal models (e.g. fixed rate dispersal) resulted in lower accuracy for the metrics which reward correct prediction of presences. Ensemble models of the dispersal methods (generated by combining multiple projection outcomes) were created for each species, and a new Ensemble Agreement Index (EAI), which ranges from 0 (no agreement among models) to 1 (full agreement among models) was developed to quantify uncertainty among the projections. EAI values ranged from 0.634 (some areas of disagreement and therefore medium uncertainty among dispersal models) to 0.999 (large areas of agreement and low uncertainty among dispersal models). The results of this research highlight the importance of incorporating dispersal and also illustrate that the method with which dispersal is simulated greatly impacts the projected future distribution. This has important implications for studies aimed at predicting the effects of changing environmental conditions on species' distributions.

Urbanisation is among the most ecologically damaging change in land use, posing significant threats to global biodiversity. Most bat species are threatened by urbanisation, although urban areas can also offer important roosting and foraging opportunities. Urban development should consider how bats are likely to respond to development, and take measures to minimise impacts. We used acoustic data from four years of citizen science monitoring (2013–2016) to quantify the importance of fine-scale habitat configuration and composition for bats in urban areas in eastern England. Bat distribution and activity were analysed in relation to remote sensing data representing impervious surface, waterbodies and tree-cover density. Furthermore, hypothetical future scenarios of urban development were considered, assuming an increase in impervious or woodland surface. Lakes and discontinuous woodland were the most selected habitats and urban areas were the least selected, with Barbastellus, Myotis and Plecotus species being the most vulnerable. Nyctalus, Pipistrellus and Eptesicus species were less influenced by the presence of urban areas. Our results suggest that urban growth should be sought through the expansion of existing urban blocks, rather than creating new urban patches, to minimise impacts on commuting or foraging sites. Creating bat-friendly habitat of an area at least equal to any new urban settlement could provide mitigation for negative effects of urbanisation. Opportunities to increase areas of discontinuous woodland should be encouraged, while preserving unmanaged areas within large plantations would likely support the exploitation of continuous woodland by bats.

Capsule: Current UK distributions of non-native birds poorly match areas identified as being climatically suitable. Aims: Non-native species are spreading at unprecedented rates and though invasions are expected to increase under climate change, evidence for this is mixed. We assess climatic suitability throughout the UK based on the apparent match to the climate in species’ native ranges and investigate potential climatic limitation within the non-native range. Methods: Climate was characterized within polygons representing the native ranges of 167 potentially invasive species. Parts of the UK with current and future climate similar to that in the native range were deemed climatically suitable. The incidence of recent observations inside and outside suitable areas was used to test hypotheses about climatic limitation of non-native ranges. Results: Climate matching suggests that 69 of 167 non-native bird species could currently find climatically suitable areas for establishment in the UK. Future climate change would see this number increase by 14% by 2080. However, observed occurrences of non-native species in the UK were not significantly correlated to climatic suitability. Only 44 of the 69 species with suitable climate in the UK were present. Moreover, 85% of species observed in the UK had some UK occurrences in climatically unsuitable areas and for 57 species their entire UK range was in climatically unsuitable areas. Similar results were apparent for the subset of 12 species with established UK populations. Conclusions: Climate matching provides a relatively poor indication of the extent of current and future suitable areas because species can adapt to new climates or other factors constrain the native range and many climatically suitable areas are currently unoccupied. Improvements to climate matching techniques and ongoing surveillance are required to refine predictions to support effective management policies.

In many countries, bats have high conservation prioritisation owing to their trophic position, habitat associations and threat level, and many have dedicated management plans. However, poor knowledge of species' ecology, identification issues and surveying challenges mean that large-scale monitoring to produce required distribution and abundance information is less developed than for some other taxa. Static detectors deployed to record bats throughout whole nights have been recommended for standardised acoustic monitoring but to date their cost has prohibited wide uptake. Here we describe an extensive survey approach in which members of the public borrowed detectors to participate in a large-scale monitoring and mapping project. Covering a 15% sample of the study area over two years, the survey generated over 600,000 bat recordings. We describe a semi-automated step-wise method for processing this large volume of recordings to assign identity to species or genus level with low error rates. Twelve species were recorded during the survey, ranging from the near ubiquitous Common Pipistrelle Pipistrellus pipistrellus to the locally scarce Leisler's bat Nyctalus leisleri . We show pronounced patterns of seasonality consistent with post-breeding dispersal and new information on nocturnal activity patterns. Using regression trees we generate new maps of standardised variation in activity which is likely to reflect underlying spatial variation in relative abundance. These reveal hitherto unknown patterns for species of superficially similar status. We conclude that with logistical support and centralised automated species identification it is now possible for the public to contribute to acoustic bat monitoring at an unprecedented scale.

Capsule The breeding Woodcock population in Britain in 2013 was estimated at 55 241 males (95% CL: 41 806–69 004), suggesting a large-scale decline that is supported by 2 additional sources of data.Aims To provide an updated estimate of the size of Britain's breeding Woodcock population, measure recent trends and identify spatial patterns of change.Methods Displaying male Woodcock were surveyed at a stratified sample of 834 randomly selected sites. Population estimates were compared with a baseline survey conducted in 2003 and the trend with data from annual Woodcock counts (2003–13) and Bird Atlas 2007–11.Results Woodcock were estimated to be present at 22% of 1 × 1 km squares containing ≥10 ha of woodland, compared to 35% in 2003. The British population estimate fell by 29% between 2003 and 2013. The Atlas suggests that presence at the 10 × 10 km scale has declined by 56% between 1970 and 2010. Both data sources suggest regional variation in the rate of decline, with losses greatest in the West and Sout...

Many species are extending their leading-edge (cool) range margins polewards in response to recent climate change. In the present study, we investigated range margin changes at the northern (cool) range margins of 1573 southerly-distributed species from 21 animal groups in Great Britain over the past four decades of climate change, updating previous work. Depending on data availability, range margin changes were examined over two time intervals during the past four decades. For four groups (birds, butterflies, macromoths, and dragonflies and damselflies), there were sufficient data available to examine range margin changes over both time intervals. We found that most taxa shifted their northern range margins polewards and this finding was not greatly influenced by changes in recorder effort. The mean northwards range margin change in the first time interval was 23 km per decade (N = 13 taxonomic groups) and, in the second interval, was 18 km per decade (N = 16 taxonomic groups) during periods when the British climate warmed by 0.21 and 0.28 °C per decade, respectively. For the four taxa examined over both intervals, there was evidence for higher rate of range margin change in the more recent time interval in the two Lepidoptera groups. Our analyses confirm a continued range margin shift polewards in a wide range of taxonomic groups.

Capsule At both landscape and local scales, breeding persistence in a declining Hawfinch population was greatest where broadleaved woodland cover was high, while at a fine scale, nest sites were associated with openings in the woodland canopy.Aims To assess which components of habitat are associated with Hawfinch occupancy at landscape (10-km), local (tetrad) and fine (nest) spatial scales, during a period of population decline and range contraction.Methods Bird Atlas 2008–11 data were used to determine areas of Hawfinch loss and persistence over 20 years. Current habitat was measured and compared to look for correlates that helped explain the differing status at both 10-km and tetrad scales. Fine scale habitat data collected at nest sites were compared with random locations to investigate within-wood nest site selection.Results At both 10-km and tetrad scales, Hawfinch persistence is more likely where woodland cover is greater. Recent woodland management was less evident in tetrads where the species pers...

There is good evidence that species' distributions are shifting poleward in response to climate change and wide interest in the magnitude of such responses for scientific and conservation purposes. It has been suggested from the directions of climatic changes that species' distribution shifts may not be simply poleward, but this has been rarely tested with observed data. Here, we apply a novel approach to measuring range shifts on axes ranging through 360°, to recent data on the distributions of 122 species of British breeding birds during 1988-1991 and 2008-2011. Although previously documented poleward range shifts have continued, with an average 13.5 km shift northward, our analysis indicates this is an underestimate because it ignores common and larger shifts that occurred along axes oriented to the north-west and north-east. Trailing edges contracted from a broad range of southerly directions. Importantly, these results are derived from systematically collected data so confounding observer-effort biases can be discounted. Analyses of climate for the same period show that whilst temperature trends should drive species along a north-north-westerly trajectory, directional responses to precipitation will depend on both the time of year that is important for determining a species' distribution, and the location of the range margin. Directions of species' range centroid shift were not correlated with spatial trends in any single climate variable. We conclude that range shifts of British birds are multidirectional, individualistic and probably determined by species-specific interactions of multiple climate factors. Climate change is predicted to lead to changes in community composition through variation in the rates that species' ranges shift; our results suggest communities could change further owing to constituent species shifting along different trajectories. We recommend more studies consider directionality in climate and range dynamics to produce more appropriate measures of observed and expected responses to climate change.

Capsule Trends in young woodland availability influenced population trends and abundance of Tree Pipit and Lesser Redpoll, but not 10-km square occupancy.Aims To investigate whether changes in availability of young woodland could have driven population change, and trends in abundance and occupancy, of declining Tree Pipit and Lesser Redpoll populations in Britain.Methods Modelling approaches used annual population indices and woodland planting statistics. Abundance and occupancy change between two bird atlases were examined in relation to changes in woodland availability from two woodland inventories.Results English declines were strongly associated with decreases in young coniferous woodland availability and less strongly with increases in young broadleaved woodland. Abundance was related to the area of young woodland in corresponding 10-km squares. Young woodland availability declined between forest inventories and species occupancy maintained in 10-km squares with more young woodland; however squares t...

Growing evidence indicates that species respond idiosyncratically when exposed to the same changes in climate. As a result, understanding the potential influence of biological traits on species’ distributional responses is a research priority. Yet, empirical support for hypothesised influences of traits on climate change responses remains equivocal.In this paper, we developed a novel approach to determine whether biological traits predict the degree of climatic niche tracking of British breeding birds in response to recent climate change. First, we quantified how well predicted positive and negative changes in probability of presence from climate-based species distribution models agreed with observed local gains and losses in species’ occupancy – our measure of climatic niche tracking. Second, we examined whether the degree of climatic niche tracking could be predicted by species’ ecological and life-history traits, as well as phylogenetic relationships.Overall, British breeding birds displayed a low degree of climatic niche tracking over the period of our study, though this varied substantially among species. Models incorporating traits and phylogeny explained a low proportion of the variation in climatic niche tracking. Nevertheless, we did find statistical evidence that species with lower lifespans tracked their climatic niches more closely, whilst species with a mixed diet displayed a lower degree of climatic niche tracking.We present here a tractable approach for quantifying the degree to which observed local range gains and losses can be related to climate redistribution and apply it to British breeding birds. Although we do not find strong evidence that traits predict the degree of climatic niche tracking, we discuss why this is likely to be a consequence of the features of our study system rather than the approach itself. We believe this approach may prove to be useful as datasets of temporal changes in species distributions become increasingly available.

Capsule The recent population decline of Whinchats has accelerated, including core breeding areas of Britain. Contrasting patterns of change with Stonechat suggest a large-scale environmental driver is affecting the entire Whinchat population.Aims To explore broad geographical and landscape related differences in long-term patterns of population change in the Whinchat and Stonechat across Britain to identify candidate mechanisms of change.Methods The study uses 40 years of large-scale, long-term data from a series of three atlas studies to compare trends in range and abundance in Whinchats and Stonechats relative to landscape and weather variables.Results For Whinchats there has been a long-term and accelerating decline in abundance, that includes stronghold areas of Britain. The Stonechat population has undergone a net gain in abundance with regional and altitudinal variations. These two very different patterns of change suggest the relative ubiquity of decline in Whinchats has a common source affecting ...

Summary The use of data documenting how species' distributions have changed over time is crucial for testing how well correlative species distribution models (SDMs) predict species' range changes. So far, however, little attention has been given to developing a reliable methodological framework for using such data. We develop a new tool – the temporal validation (TV) plot – specifically aimed at making use of species' distribution records at two times for a comprehensive assessment of the prediction accuracy of SDMs over time. We extend existing presence–absence calibration plots to make use of distribution records from two time periods. TV plots visualize the agreement between change in modelled probabilities of presence and the probability of observing sites gained or lost between time periods. We then present three measures of prediction accuracy that can be easily calculated from TV plots. We present our methodological framework using a virtual species in a simplified landscape and then provide a real-world case study using distribution records for two species of breeding birds from two time periods of intensive recording effort across Great Britain. Together with existing approaches, TV plots and their associated measures offer a simple tool for testing how well SDMs model species' observed range changes – perhaps the best way available to assess their ability to predict likely future changes.

Climate change is increasingly altering the composition of ecological communities, in combination with other environmental pressures such as high‐intensity land use. Pressures are expected to interact in their effects, but the extent to which intensive human land use constrains community responses to climate change is currently unclear. A generic indicator of climate change impact, the community temperature index (CTI), has previously been used to suggest that both bird and butterflies are successfully ‘tracking’ climate change. Here, we assessed community changes at over 600 English bird or butterfly monitoring sites over three decades and tested how the surrounding land has influenced these changes. We partitioned community changes into warm‐ and cold‐associated assemblages and found that English bird communities have not reorganized successfully in response to climate change. CTI increases for birds are primarily attributable to the loss of cold‐associated species, whilst for butterflies, warm‐associated species have tended to increase. Importantly, the area of intensively managed land use around monitoring sites appears to influence these community changes, with large extents of intensively managed land limiting ‘adaptive’ community reorganization in response to climate change. Specifically, high‐intensity land use appears to exacerbate declines in cold‐adapted bird and butterfly species, and prevent increases in warm‐associated birds. This has broad implications for managing landscapes to promote climate change adaptation., This study investigates how bird and butterfly communities have changed during three decades of climate warming. We present the first evidence to show that community changes appear to be constrained by high‐intensity land use. This has broad implications for managing landscapes to promote climate change adaptation.

In order to assess the significance of the presumed “umbrella effect” of Natura 2000 areas the European Commission initiated a study, in 2013, to address the following questions: 1) Which are, amongst the species regularly occurring within the European territory of the EU-28 Member States, those that significantly benefit from the site conservation under the EU Birds and Habitats Directive? 2) What is the percentage of all species occurring in the wild in the EU that benefit significantly from Natura 2000? 3) How significant is the contribution of Natura 2000 in relation to the objective of halting and reversing biodiversity loss? The approach used existing data, and covered the terrestrial mammals, birds, reptiles, amphibian, butterfly and plant species. The analysis is mostly based on statistical distribution models and GIS processing of species distribution data in relation to their presence within protected areas of the Natura 2000 network. The main findings for all species groups were: Animal species for which Natura 2000 areas were not specifically designated occur more frequently inside Natura 2000 than outside (in particular breeding birds and butterflies). These species do, therefore, gain benefit from the protected areas network. The species for which Natura 2000 areas were designated generally occur more frequently within the Natura 2000 site boundaries than the nonannex species; this is in particular the case for birds and butterflies, for amphibians and reptiles the difference is negligible. More specific conclusions and findings, as well as discussion of these results and implications for further studies are included in the report.

An increasing number of studies are taking the important first step in global efforts to conserve key ecosystem services by mapping their spatial distributions. However, a lack of primary data for most services in most places has largely forced such mapping exercises to be based on proxies. The common way of producing these proxies is through benefits transfer-based mapping, in which estimates of the values of services are obtained from a small region for particular land cover types, and then extrapolated to a larger area for these same types. However, the errors that may result from such extrapolations are poorly understood. Here, we separate the generalization errors associated with benefits transfer mapping into three constituent components – uniformity, sampling, and regionalization error – and evaluate their effects using primary data for four ecosystem services in England. Variation in ecosystem services within a particular land cover type (uniformity error) alone led to a poor fit to primary data for most services; sampling effects (sampling error) and extrapolating from a small region to a larger area (regionalization error) led to substantial, but highly variable, additional reductions in the fit to primary data. We also show that combining multiple ecosystem services into a single layer is likely to be even more problematic as it contains the errors in each of the constituent layers. These errors are sufficiently large to undermine decisions that might be based on such extrapolated maps. Greatly improved mapping of the actual distributions of ecosystem services is therefore needed to achieve the goal of conserving these vital assets.

Between 1988 and 2007, set-aside, a European Commission production control measure, took an average of 10% of arable farmland in the EU out of production each year. In 2007, the set-aside rate was set to 0% and the scheme was later abandoned altogether. By assessing associations of farmland birds with set-aside and quantifying the extent of set-aside loss, this study aims to assess the implications of set-aside loss for farmland bird conservation. During the lifespan of set-aside, a large number of studies assessed the biodiversity value of set-aside and other agricultural crops and habitats. Where possible we considered measurable benefits of set-aside. However, some studies did not specify the type of set-aside and in some cases set-aside fields were grouped with cereal stubble fields. In these cases, we took the pragmatic approach of assessing the value of generic stubble fields as a conservative minimum estimate of the value of set-aside fields. A re-analysis of data from 30 intensive studies demonstrates that farmland bird densities tended to be higher on set-aside than on either cereal or oilseed rape crops. Without mitigation, these are the two crops likely to replace most set-aside fields. We estimate that 26–52% of the farmland populations of key granivorous passerines were present on stubble fields, giving an indication of the proportion of birds likely to be present on set-aside fields within this broader category. An extensive survey of lowland farmland during winters 1999/2000, 2000/2001 and 2002/2003, repeated in February 2008, showed a doubling of the number of 1-km squares with no stubble and a halving of the number of squares with more than 10 ha of stubble. After set-aside abandonment, 72% of squares had no stubble in the important late winter period, confirming that many of the former stubble fields were retained as set-aside. A simple correlative model suggests that this could cause a small increase in the rate of decline of Skylark Alauda arvensis and Yellowhammer Emberiza citrinella populations, assuming causal links between stubble area and demography. However, even if this assumption cannot be supported, these results clearly indicate that a significant proportion of some farmland bird populations will need to find alternative breeding and foraging habitats.

An increasing number of studies are examining the distribution and congruence of ecosystem services, often with the goal of identifying areas that will provide multiple ecosystem service 'hotspots'. However, there is a paucity of data on most ecosystem services, so proxies (e.g. estimates of a service for a particular land cover type) are frequently used to map their distribution. To date, there has been little attempt to quantify the effects of using proxies on distribution maps of ecosystem services, despite the potentially large errors associated with such data sets. 2. Here, we provide the first study examining the effects of using proxies on ecosystem service maps and the degree of spatial congruence of these maps with primary data, using England as a case study. 3. We show that land cover based proxies provide a poor fit to primary data surfaces for biodiversity, recreation and carbon storage, and that correlations between ecosystem services change depending on whether primary or proxy data are used for the analyses. 4. The poor fit of proxies to primary data was also evident when we selected hotspots of single ecosystem services, and consistency between raw and modelled surfaces was extremely low when considering the locations that were coincident hotspots for multiple services. 5. Synthesis and applications. Proxies may be suitable for identifying broad-scale trends in ecosystem services, but even relatively good proxies are likely to be unsuitable for identifying hotspots or priority areas for multiple services

In human-dominated regions, protected areas are complemented by other conservation strategies (e.g., restrictive zoning, incentive payments) to maintain biodiversity and other ecosystem services. These strategies are often not mutually exclusive, with many areas covered by multiple (tiered) management strategies. However, it is not known whether tiering increases (or decreases) representation of ecosystem services. Here, we compare the representation of four ecosystem services by areas protected by both tiered and single conservation strategies (protected areas, restrictive zoning, and incentive payments to landowners) in a human-dominated region (England). Tiering always coincided with the highest levels of stored carbon, sometimes coincided with high biodiversity and agricultural production, but never coincided with high recreational value. We also show that tiering is common in England and biased towards upland areas. Future evaluations of the effectiveness of conservation strategies should consider the degree of overlap of the different strategies fully to understand which are most effective.

1. Reductions in resource availability, associated with land-use change and agricultural intensification in the UK and Europe, have been linked with the widespread decline of many farmland bird species over recent decades. However, the underlying ecological processes which link resource availability and population trends are poorly understood. 2. We construct a spatial depletion model to investigate the relationship between the population persistence of granivorous birds within the agricultural landscape and the temporal dynamics of stubble field availability, an important source of winter food for many of those species. 3. The model is capable of accurately predicting the distribution of a given number of finches and buntings amongst patches of different stubble types in an agricultural landscape over the course of a winter and assessing the relative value of different landscapes in terms of resource availability. 4. Sensitivity analyses showed that the model is relatively robust to estimates of energetic requirements, search efficiency and handling time but that daily seed survival estimates have a strong influence on model fit. Understanding resource dynamics in agricultural landscapes is highlighted as a key area for further research. 5. There was a positive relationship between the predicted number of bird days supported by a landscape over-winter and the breeding population trend for yellowhammer Emberiza citrinella, a species for which survival has been identified as the primary driver of population dynamics, but not for linnet Carduelis cannabina, a species for which productivity has been identified as the primary driver of population dynamics. 6. Synthesis and applications. We believe this model can be used to guide the effective delivery of over-winter food resources under agri-environment schemes and to assess the impacts on granivorous birds of changing resource availability associated with novel changes in land use. This could be very important in the future as farming adapts to an increasingly dynamic trading environment, in which demands for increased agricultural production must be reconciled with objectives for environmental protection, including biodiversity conservation.

Ecosystems support biodiversity and also provide goods and services that are beneficial to humans. The extent to which the locations that are most valuable for ecosystem services coincide with those that support the most biodiversity is of critical importance when designing conservation and land management strategies. There are, however, few studies on which to base any kind of conclusion about possible spatial patterns of association between ecosystem services and biodiversity. Moreover, little is known about the sensitivity of the conclusions to the quality of the data available, or to the choice and size of the region used for analysis. Here, we first present national-scale estimates of the spatial covariance in areas important for ecosystem services and biodiversity (richness of species of conservation concern), using Britain as a case study. We then explore how these associations are sensitive to the spatial resolution of the available data, the spatial extent of our study region and to regional variation across the study area. Our analyses reveal a mixture of negative and positive associations. In particular, the regionalization analysis shows that one can arrive at diametrically opposing conclusions about relationships between ecosystem services and biodiversity by studying the same question within different areas, even within a moderately small island. Synthesis and applications. In a policy context, the location-specific nature of relationships between ecosystem services and biodiversity underscores the importance of multi-scale environmental decision-making, so as to reflect both local conditions and broader-scale priorities. The results also suggest that efforts to establish general patterns of congruence in ecosystem services and biodiversity may offer a less constructive way forward than do more regional approaches

Summary 1. A principal goal of protected-area networks is to maintain viable populations of as many species as possible, particularly those that are vulnerable to environmental change outside reserves. Ideally, one wants to be able to protect all biodiversity when selecting priority areas for conservation. 2. Using the area-prioritization algorithm ZONATION, we identified the locations where UK Biodiversity Action Plan (BAP) species of mammals, birds, herptiles, butterflies and plants occur in concentrated populations with high connectivity. Both these features are likely to be correlated with population persistence. The analyses were successful in maintaining a high proportion of the connectivity of narrow-range species, and large total amounts of the connectivity of wider-range species over 10% of the land surface of Great Britain. 3. Biodiversity Action Plan (BAP ‐ high priority) species of one taxonomic group were not particularly good surrogates (indicators) for BAP species of other taxonomic groups. Hence, maintaining population concentrations of one taxonomic group did not guarantee doing likewise for other taxa. 4. Species with narrow geographic ranges were most effective at predicting conservation success for other species, probably because they represent the range of environmental conditions required by other species. 5. Synthesis and applications. This study identifies landscape-scale priority areas for conservation of priority species from several taxonomic groups, using the Zonation software. ‘Indicator groups’ were only partially successful as predictors of priority areas for other taxonomic groups, and therefore, the identification of priority areas for biodiversity conservation should include information from all taxonomic groups available. Larger areas should be protected to account for species not included in the analyses. Conservation solutions based on data for many different species, and particularly those species with narrowly defined ranges, appear to be most effective at protecting other rare taxa.

— Many migratory birds use staging sites to gain essential resources to fuel their ongoing migration. Understanding staging strategies reveals much about migration systems and is essential if one is concerned with monitoring population trends and mass gains, two of the principal methods for assessing the “health” of a migratory population. In spring 2004, we investigated the staging behavior in Delaware Bay of Red Knot (Calidris canutus) using mark-recapture techniques and resightings of birds marked in the preceding spring. Individuals staged for 11–12 days, which declined to 8–10 days late in the season. Arrivals were asynchronous, but departures tended to be synchronized. A simple sensitivity analysis showed that the mark-recapture analysis estimated length of stay to within +10% and confirmed biases in monitoring trends and mass gains using peak counts and mass-on-date regressions. Alternative methods using staging duration to estimate passage population size and mass gains were shown to be u...