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PurposeQatar, a wealthy country with an open economy has limited arable land. To meet its domestic food demand, the country heavily relies on food imports. Additionally, the over three year-long economic embargo enforced by regional neighbors and the covariate shock of the COVID-19 pandemic have demonstrated the country's vulnerability to food insecurity and potential for structural breaks in macroeconomic data. The purpose of this paper is to examine short- and long-run determinants of Qatar's imports of aggregate food, meats, dairy and cereals in the presence of structural breaks.Design/methodology/approachThe authors use 24 years of food imports, gross domestic product (GDP) and consumer price index (CPI) data obtained from Qatar's Planning and Statistics Authority. They use the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) cointegration framework and Chambers and Pope's exact nonlinear aggregation approach.FindingsUnit root tests in the presence of structural breaks reveal a mixture of I (1) and I (0) variables for which standard cointegration techniques do not apply. The authors found evidence of a significant long-run relationship between structural changes and food imports in Qatar. Impulse response functions indicate full adjustments within three-quarters of a year in the event of an exogenous shock to imports.Research limitations/implicationsAn exogenous shock of one standard deviation on this variable would reduce Qatar's food imports by about 2.5% during the first period but recover after the third period.Originality/valueThe failure of past aggregate food demand studies to go beyond standard unit root testing creates considerable doubt about the accuracy of their elasticity estimates. The authors avoid that to provide more credible findings.

The coastline of Qatar is a rich mosaic of productive and diverse ecosystems including mangrove forests, intertidal mudflats (sabkha), seagrass beds, and coral reefs. These ecologically interconnected ecosystems contain a substantial proportion of Qatar's total biodiversity, and support an estimated 97% of the >US$ 67 million in annual commercial fisheries, the highest value resource sector after petroleum. The extreme environmental conditions that characterize Qatar has led to fauna that are robust compared with other regions, but makes them highly sensitive to further pressure from anthropogenic stress. These vulnerable ecosystems have come under increasing pressure in recent decades as a result of dramatic expansion of coastal development, and threats to these ecosystems are likely to accelerate in the coming years as Qatar's economy and population continue to grow. Although environmental regulation had historically lagged behind the rapid pace of development, in recent years Qatar's leadership has aggressively expanded environmental management as a result of the growing awareness of the importance of coastal ecosystems. While these improvements are encouraging, management remains challenged by its current sectorial, project-driven focus. Ecosystem-based management (EBM) offers an opportunity to overcome these challenges by integrating impacts from across all major activities in multiple sectors and considering their cumulative effects on ecosystem services and products. While an EBM approach would require modest reprioritizing of existing processes and attention to addressing deficiencies in data needed to support decision making, it has the potential to greatly enhance the efficiency and effectiveness of coastal zone management. The article closes by summarizing a recently initiated research project on coral reefs and seagrass beds in Qatar which can serve as a model for development of the EBM approach for other coastal ecosystems in Qatar.

Using panel data for six Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries from 1995-2014, we assess the impacts of several major economic variables on intra-GCC food exports, and on GCC food exports to the world. The GCC customs union had minimal impact on intra-GCC food exports, but occasioned a significant reduction in GCC food exports. Unlike GCC food exports, intra-GCC food exports occurred among countries with similar relative factor endowments, in agreement with the Linder Hypothesis. Rising incomes and exchange rates played significant roles in both intra-GCC food exports and GCC food exports, while distance has lost its once-dominant role. This publication was made possible by the NPRP award (NPRP 6-064-4-001) from the Qatar National Research Fund (a member of the Qatar Foundation). Scopus

Introduction The research developed strategies to be adopted in Qatar to enhance agricultural production and improve the food security situation of the country. The government of Qatar has instituted plans to boost its food security and, as part of the wider food security plan, the country needs improved agricultural technologies and in-country farming techniques to increase crop yields. This QNRF-funded food security project sought to apply innovative technologies and decision support tools to provide strategies for successful vegetable food production on the local Qatari scene. The research has provided methodologies to assist Qatari researchers and Policy makers to make informed decisions about appropriate crops and timing for profitable in-country farming. Rationale The agricultural production problems faced by Qatar are similar to many other arid and semi-arid countries. The challenges faced by Qatar in improving agricultural production represent a wide range of sustainable agriculture issues including limited arable land and water resources, high temperatures associated with high humidity, salinity, plant pests and plant diseases. This research addresses these problems by contributing to the application of innovative ways of maximizing water and nutrient use efficiency for agriculture, and choosing the appropriate planting times for vegetable cultivation. Appropriate preservation of soils for agricultural purposes is not practiced in Qatar. Therefore, this research was carried out to showcase modern technological innovations with the potential to accelerate in-country vegetable production so as to enhance food security in Qatar. Methods The project consisted of four sub-projects, namely Sub-Project 1 (crop management), Sub-Project 2 (soil management and desertification), Sub-Project 3 (financial risk management) and Sub-Project 4 (combination of the three sub-Projects). The respective tasks of the sub-Projects were as follows Sub-Project 1 developed a decision-making framework for sustainable and profitable cropping in Qatar, and used the FAO AquaCrop model to carry out crop growth simulations of cucumber, squash, and tomato (Qatar), and wheat (Australia). Sub-Project 2 utilised the Soil Constraints and Management Package (SCAMP) to assess intrinsic soil and site constraints for sustainable production. The sub-Project also identified several strategies to improve crop productivity. Sub-project 3 derived an integrated drought derivative model that incorporated geo-specific weather factors, crop-growth cycles, and soil management practices to minimize financial risk. Sub-Project 4 combined the climate, crop, soil and financial components to develop an integrated decision-making framework as well as a targeted partner engagement and communication strategy. Results and Discussion The AquaCrop model is recommended for use in simulating yields of crops to assess the effects of agronomic practices including planting dates, soil characteristics, and water/nutrient use efficiency. Months for optimum vegetable planting are September and December. March planting can produce similar yields but more water is required. Because of higher temperatures and greater vapour pressure deficits during the March to June period, field crop yields from these planting dates are highly variable, resulting in very inefficient use of water. It is therefore recommended that planting during this time period in the field should be avoided. It is critically important to maximize water use efficiency in irrigated field crops in Qatar because of the link between water use efficiency and nitrogen use efficiency. It is essential that N fertilizer inputs closely match crop N requirements, and ammonium-based N fertilizers be used in preference to nitrate-N fertilizers. Regular monitoring of the salinity of the irrigation water is required to ensure that it does not exacerbate the current soil salinity status. As nutrient budgets of field-grown squash and tomato have identified a mismatch between nutrient inputs and crop demand in current management practices, the key soil fertility analyses of extractable phosphorus, organic carbon and exchangeable potassium should be undertaken to inform fertilizer management.The Financial Drought model developed using the reconnaissance drought index (RDI) can be used. A policy brief is available on the operation of derivative systems to protect farmers from production risk.The optimization model developed by incorporating a risk measure is recommended for further application. The developed user-friendly output interface for the model can be used for effective application. Significance The project initiated new dialogue between Government and private sector stakeholders in Qatar on food security strategies. Stakeholders were made aware of the lack of current information on the fertility of soils and quality of irrigation water used for vegetable crops in Qatar. The project concentrated on field production of vegetable crops (cucumber, squash and tomato) identified by a preliminary survey of local consumers. Training opportunities were provided for six students in Qatar, Canada and Australia. Results were presented at eight international conferences where QNRF was acknowledged. An analysis of evapotranspiration data for Qatar was conducted and results published. This is the first study of its type for Qatar (Issaka et al. 2017). Conclusions The research has developed a strategy that is in alignment with QNRS Grand Challenge # 1 - Water Security, by focusing on water use efficiency for crop production. It also informs on the optimal times for planting vegetable crops, and reduces fertilizer inputs and costs by avoiding excessive fertilizer use. A key component of the strategy is the need for fertilizer inputs to be closely matched to crop nutrient requirements using a nutrient budget and soil test approach. Regular monitoring of irrigation water salinity is essential to avoid increased salinization. The Financial Drought model will be beneficial in protecting farmers from production risk. Finally, the optimization model will be beneficial in improving farming decisions. Recommendations for Future Research and Development There are major advances in water and nutrient use efficiency that could be applied in both open field and greenhouse agriculture in Qatar, with the objective of making maximum effective use of their very limited water and arable soil resources. Examine how project outputs (AquaCrop/economic and crop selection model, soil / water/ nutrient/ solar radiation use efficiency, communication packages) can be embedded in Qatar's Research and Educational programs. Engage more actively with the Department of Agriculture of the Ministry of Municipality and Environment, and its particular interests in both the broader food security issues, and the tools being offered by the project. Acknowledgement This research was made possible by a NPRP award [NPRP 6-064-4-001] from the Qatar National Research Fund (a member of The Qatar Foundation). The statements in the Report are solely the responsibility of the authors.References A.K.S. Huda, A.I. Issaka, S. Kaitibie, M. M. Haq, I. Goktepe, A. Moustafa, K. Abdella, M. Pollanen, P.W. Moody, N. Vock, N. Huda, and K.J. Coughlan (2017). Improving Food Security in Qatar: Assessing Alternative Cropping Systems Feasibility and Productivity in Variable Climates, Soil and Marketing Environments (NPRP 6-064-4-001). Final Report, Qatar National Research Foundation, 79pp A. I. Issaka, J. Paek, K. Abdella, M. Pollanen, A. Huda, S. Kaitibie, I. Goktepe, M. Haq and A. Moustafa (2017). «Analysis and Calibration of Empirical Relationships for Estimating Evapotranspiration in Qatar: Case Study.» Journal of irrigation and drainage engineering 143(2): 05016013.

Knowledge of evapotranspiration (ETo), which is the process of water loss from vegetated soils due to evaporation and transpiration, is important in real-time irrigation management and water-resource allocation, particularly in water-scarce regions. In this study, several methods used in estimating evapotranspiration, including the Blaney-Criddle, Hargreaves-Samani, Jensen-Haise, Linacre, and Turc methods were calibrated and validated against the Penman-Monteith model, which is considered as the standard method of estimating evapotranspiration. The paper utilizes data from the Doha International Airport meteorological station over a period of 30 years (January 1985-December 2014). ETo values were estimated using the different methods. These values were then compared to those obtained by the Penman-Monteith method. Using appropriate indicators, the Turc method was found to be the best for estimating ETo over Doha (R2=0.9519, RMSE=1.4511 mm day-1, and MAE=1.1633 mm day-1). The Turc method comes in handy for estimating ETo over Qatar as it utilizes only three meteorological parameters (mean temperature, relative humidity, and solar radiation), which are easily measurable over that area. Scopus

This analysis of food imports used an enhanced gravity model of trade, with food imports from approximately 136 countries from 2004 to 2014. Using improved panel data techniques, we show that total income, inflation in the food exporting country, corruption perception in the food exporting country, trade openness in the food exporting economy, GCC membership are important determinants of food imports by Qatar. In addition, we show that Qatari food imports mostly originate in countries with, on average, similar economic sizes. Finally, Qatar’s factor endowment is dissimilar to those of most of its trading partners, a situation that potentially fosters international food trade in accordance with the Heckscher–Ohlin theory of trade.

Highlights • Pastoralists had traditional disease coping mechanisms. • Some pastoralists had no knowledge of any prevention method and others would not know what to do or would do nothing in the event of an outbreak. • Pastoralists perceived vaccination to be the solution to CBPP but vaccination was irregular. • Vaccination exhibited adverse post-vaccination reactions and consequently 25.2% of pastoralists may resist subsequent vaccinations against CBPP. • Pastoralists preferred CBPP vaccination at certain times of the year and that it is combined with other vaccinations., CBPP is an important transboundary disease in sub-Saharan Africa whose control is urgent. Participatory data collection involving 52 focus group discussions in 37 village clusters and key informant interviews, a cross-sectional study involving 232 households and a post-vaccination follow up involving 203 households was carried out in 2006–2007 in Narok South district of Kenya. This was to investigate knowledge, attitudes, perceptions and practices (KAPP) associated with control of CBPP as well as the adverse post-vaccination reactions in animals in order to advice the control policy. The community perceived trans-boundary CBPP threat to their cattle. They had traditional disease coping mechanisms and were conversant with CBPP prevention and control with 49.8% (95%CI: 42.8–56.7%) giving priority to CBPP control. However, 12.9% (95%CI: 9.0–18.1%) of pastoralists had no knowledge of any prevention method and 10.0% (95%CI: 6.5–14.7%) would not know what to do or would do nothing in the event of an outbreak. Although 43.5% (95%CI: 37.1–50.2%) of pastoralists were treating CBPP cases with antimicrobials, 62.5% (95%CI: 52.1–71.7%) of them doubted the effectiveness of the treatments. Pastoralists perceived vaccination to be the solution to CBPP but vaccination was irregular due to unavailability of the vaccine. Vaccination was mainly to control outbreaks rather than preventive and exhibited adverse post-vaccination reactions among 70.4% (95%CI: 63.6–76.5%) of herds and 3.8% (95%CI: 3.5–4.2%) of animals. Consequently, nearly 25.2% (95%CI: 18.5–33.2%) of pastoralists may resist subsequent vaccinations against CBPP. Pastoralists preferred CBPP vaccination at certain times of the year and that it is combined with other vaccinations. In conclusion, pastoralists were not fully aware of the preventive measures and interventions and post-vaccination reactions may discourage subsequent CBPP vaccinations. Consequently there is need for monitoring and management of post vaccination reactions and awareness creation on CBPP prevention and interventions and their merits and demerits. CBPP vaccine was largely unavailable to the pastoralists and the preference of the pastoralists was for vaccination at specified times and vaccine combinations which makes it necessary to avail the vaccine in conformity with the pastoralists preferences. In addition, planning vaccinations should involve pastoralists and neighbouring countries. As the results cannot be generalized, further studies on CBPP control methods and their effectiveness are recommended.

Qatar produces only about 8 to 10 percent of food consumed in the country. Domestic production of perishable commodities, primarily vegetables, will be increased by using a combination of hi-tech water-efficient field and greenhouse production systems. Improving the decision making in the various stages of production faces a number of challenges mainly related to adverse climatic conditions, quality of soils, scarcity of irrigation water, and market constraints. This paper highlights preliminary results in assessing climate, soil and crop management constraints in Qatar. Components of the research framework include assessing the yield potential of selected crops through simulation modelling using historical climate and soils data. AquaCrop, a model developed by FAO, has been used in this study to simulate yields of squash for different planting cycles of 110 days in Doha over the 30 year period from 1985 to 2014. The mean simulated yield for January to March planting dates (22nd of each month) was 23 t/ha with a narrow range of only 21 to 24 t/ha, while the simulated yields were highly variable for April, May and June planting dates. The mean yield for April was 17 t/ha (lowest 4 t/ha, highest 24 t/ha). The mean yield for May and June plantings was 7 t/ha with a range of 1 to 20 t/ha. These results compare well with the recent data collected from Al Sulaiteen Agricultural and Industrial Complex site (SAIC) in Doha. The relatively lower yield with greater variability during April to June months is associated with higher evaporative demand and higher temperatures during the crop growth period. The model is used to estimate yields for other crops including cucumber and tomatoes. Comparison of the simulated crop yields with actual field data is underway. Further and more detailed analysis of the AquaCrop model is required.This analysis will help improve the overall food security in the state of Qatar by assisting the decision making process in the various stages of production of selected perishable food crops. Yield potential for selected crops were simulated for conditions where water and nutrients are not limiting. However the simulated results can be used to estimate the optimum amount (and timing of application) of water and nutrients required to achieve the desired production.The findings of this paper will contribute towards achieving the goals of our research project “Improving Food Security in Qatar: Assessing Alternative Cropping Systems Feasibility and Productivity in Variable Climates, Soil and Marketing Environments” (NPRP6-064-4-001) funded by Qatar National Research Fund (QNRF- a member of Qatar Foundation) through its National Research Priority Program.

Qatar is well known for its natural resources and the country has the highest per capita income in the world, but when it comes to food, the picture is different. The country imports nearly 90% of its food, meaning it is almost entirely dependent on imports to feed more than 2 million people. In 2013 and 2014, Qatar imported nearly 294,757 and 334.744 metric tons of vegetables, and the overall demand for vegetables rose by 16.87% between 2011 and 2014. The countries from which Qatar imports fruits and vegetables may not follow the safe production and processing standards Qatar prefers. When fertilizers and pesticides are used in higher quantities in production or processing than what is needed, they tend to contaminate food and the environment, and may cause diseases when consumed or handled. Many countries misuse fertilizers and pesticides. In fact, Qatar Statistics Authority (QSA) reported that nearly 1.4 billion kg of food was imported in 2012, 7.5% was contaminated due to harmful microbes and/or chemicals (QSA, 2013). A report published by the National Health Strategy (NHS, 2013) indicated that total food-borne diseases recorded between 2008-2011 in Qatar were 11,420, and about 5.4% were communicable diseases. Therefore, food safety alongside food quality is a public health concern for consumers in Qatar.There is not much known about consumer demand for quality and safety of food in Qatar but also in the Gulf Corporation Council (GCC). GCC countries in the past were more concerned with meeting basic food needs of their population. At present, with rising populations and higher per capita incomes, Qatar is developing a world class food safety agency with standards that have relevance for both public health and trade policy issues.Food safety contributes an extra value to brand equity when marketing food to consumers. Food safety is a credence attribute and hence cannot be guaranteed or marketed. Consequently, attributes that consumers relate to food safety such as appropriate packaging, country of origin, labeling, etc alongside personal characteristics are important to consumers as they decide what to purchase. This research provides an avenue for consumer perceptions, knowledge and attitudes toward food safety in fruits and vegetables sold in Qatar to be transmitted to food sellers and policymakers.This research investigates the extent of Qatar consumers' perceptions, attitudes and knowledge of food safety in both imported and locally produced fruits and vegetables. We investigate whether these perceptions, attitudes and knowledge are different between Qatari and non-Qataris, and whether they are influenced by income levels or not. In addition, the study investigates the relationship between perception and actual behavior when making purchases. Finally we identify the safety and quality attributes consumers consider most important when making purchases of fruits and vegetables.To understand these research objectives, an initial survey has been was conducted. This will be shortly augmented with a larger consumer survey. Preliminary results revealed that tomato is the most commonly consumed crop followed by cucumber and carrots. The data also revealed that both demographic characteristics (income, gender, education) and, fruits & vegetables attributes (such as country of origin, price, freshness and cleanness) are important factors that influence consumers' purchasing decisions.

Summary Marketing, transporting, processing, and consuming dairy products contribute significantly to the livelihoods of many poor Kenyan households. This study analyzes the impact of recent research supporting policy changes to liberalize informal milk markets. The study found that behavioral changes in dairy sector participants arising from the research evidence-supported policy and regulatory changes led to an average 9% reduction in milk-marketing margins, and a significant increase in the number of licensed small-scale milk vendors. High welfare benefits arising from the policy change, with a net present value of US$230 million, are captured by consumers, producers, and milk vendors.

African farmers diversify their livelihood strategies through on-farm and off-farm activities. We cluster households according to similar livelihood diversification strategies and explore the implications for income levels and sustainable soil management practices. Five main livelihood diversification strategies were being pursued. Households with off-farm income, and those pursuing higher return agricultural activities earned more than twice as much as the lowest income groups, which were the least diversified. They also were more likely to implement soil conservation measures. Policies aimed at improving household well-being need to take into account a wide range of household asset endowments and livelihood strategies being pursued. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

This study uses a Cox parametric bootstrap test to select between two specifications of the von Liebig hypothesis, a switching regression (SR) model, and a linear response function with a stochastic plateau. Specifying the production function as a linear response function with a stochastic plateau yields a superior approximation of the data for livestock gain as a function of forage allowance than the SR approach. Dans la presente etude, nous avons utilise la technique du bootstrap parametrique de Cox pour choisir entre deux caracteristiques de l'hypothese de von Liebig: un modele de regression avec changement de regime et une fonction de reponse lineaire avec plateau stochastique. etablir la fonction de production comme une fonction de reponse lineaire avec plateau stochastique offre une meilleure approximation des donnees sur le gain de poids du betail comme fonction de l'apport de fourrages comparativement au modele de regression avec changement de regime.

Regulatory impact assessment suggests that Hazard Analysis and Critical Control Points (HACCP) is a cost-effective food safety regulation that is highly beneficial to society. This study focuses on firm-level costs and benefits from adoption of specific critical control points. A stochastic optimization framework is used to determine optimal testing and sampling strategies for Salmonella reduction in turkey processing. Results show that under The Food Safety Inspection Service (FSIS) mandated tolerance levels, processors need to designate no more than five critical control points, three more than what is included in the generic HACCP plan. Moves to tighten tolerances should be considered carefully because additional implementation costs tend to increase exponentially. [EconLit Citations: Q18, D81, C61] © 2007 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Agribusiness 23: 211–228, 2007.

Turkey is an important food commodity whose total value of U.S. production amounted to $2.72 billion in 2003. Empirical evidence suggests that among broilers, eggs, turkeys, and chickens, Salmonella contamination of ground turkey is highest at 49.9% prior to hazard analysis and critical control point (HACCP) implementation and 26.6% after HACCP implementation. Salmonella and other microbial outbreaks have greatly contributed to the large number of food recalls in the meat and poultry industry; therefore, processed turkey constitutes a prime commodity for HACCP intervention analysis. Value-at-risk provides a framework for assisting firm management to assess food safety risks in monetary terms, and to evaluate the economic incentives of control measures like HACCP. Results show that food safety losses as measured by downside risk significantly declined following HACCP implementation. Medium- and large-scale turkey processors are more likely to derive more benefit from implementing an augmented HACCP plan than a generic HACCP plan. [EconLit citations: C150, Q180] © 2006 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Agribusiness 22: 475–489, 2006.

There is a dichotomy of risk perception between consumers and processors of specialty meats. Studies show that consumers continue to resist these meats and perceive them as somewhat unsafe while processors perceive them to be safe. This study uses survey data from 401 consumers and 22 bison processors to evaluate the determinants of food safety risk perception gaps. Results indicate that significant food safety risk perception gaps exist between consumers and producers of bison meat. Outrage, among other factors, accounts for consumer risk perception while the number of years in business is a major determinant of producer risk perception. Consumers' food safety risk perception affects the frequency of consumption of bison meat. This creates difficulties in formulating marketing strategies and policy initiatives aimed at moving specialty meats beyond niche markets. [EconLit citations: Q180, D190, C140.] © 2005 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Agribusiness 21: 375–390, 2005.

Dual-purpose winter wheat production is an important economic enterprise in the southern Great Plains of the United States. Because of the complex interactions involved in producing wheat grain and beef gain from a single crop, stocking density is an important decision. The objective of the research is to determine the stocking density that maximizes expected net returns from dual-purpose winter wheat production. Statistical tests rejected a conventional linear-response plateau function in favor of a linear-response stochastic plateau function. The optimal stocking density of 1.48 steers/ha (0.60 steers/acre) is 19% greater with a stochastic than with a nonstochastic plateau.

After decades of continuous cropping, the pH of many soils used to produce continuous winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) in the southern plains of Oklahoma has declined to levels that limit wheat grain and forage yield. Data from a 3-yr study were used to determine the effect of lime and diammonium phosphate (DAP) application on fall-winter forage yield and grain yield of winter wheat grown in extremely add soil and to determine the economically optimal strategy for dual-purpose (forage plus grain) wheat production. A split-split plot with sub-subplot treatments arranged in a randomized complete block design was used, with lime in the main plots, variety in the subplots, and DAP in the sub-subplots. Grain yield significantly increased (α = 0.05) with lime at 2800 kg ha -1 effective calcium carbonate equivalent (ECCE), DAP at 73 kg ha -1 applied in seed furrows, or DAP at 146 kg ha -1 broadcast. Forage yields were greatest when DAP was applied at 146 kg ha -1 in seed furrows (a = 0.05). When lime costs were fully assessed in the year of application, the strategy of applying 73 kg ha -1 DAP in seed furrows and zero lime generated the greatest expected returns across all forage value estimates and grain prices. With lime costs amortized over a 5-yr period, the optimal strategy included both the application of lime before the initial season and 73 kg ha -1 DAP in seed furrows in each season.

Today, food security is a global problem. The Qatar National Food Security Programme describes the dimensions of food security in Qatar in terms of food quality, physical availability, and affordability, alongside the resilience of the country's food supply to short-term trade shocks and long-term global supply risks. The world's richest country per capita, Qatar has a population of just over two million, but the country does not have sufficient arable land and irrigation water which are severely limiting local food production. Thus, over 90% of food consumed in Qatar is imported, making the country vulnerable to supply disruptions and price hikes. When the global food crisis of 2007-2008 occurred, food import dependent countries like Qatar were hit harder and policy makers as well as institutions such as the World Bank prescribed the adoption of greater diversification and management of food imports for enhanced food security. Therefore, it is vital to conduct research to understand how much, what and with whom Qatar trades and what are the determinants of the trade pattern between Qatar and its food import partner countries. This will allow Qatar to develop a better food import strategy in order to complement the proposed increase in domestic food production to attain increased resilience in food security. Using food import and data other variables recorded from 2004 to 2013, we used a gravity model of bilateral trade to estimate the determinants of food import trade between Qatar and its trading partners. In its basic formulation, the gravity model suggests that the value of trade between any two countries is directly related to the sizes of the economies and inversely related to the distance between the two countries. We enhanced the predictive capacity of the gravity model by including other variables that are known to influence trade. Examples include dummy variables to capture regional integration, corruption perception, openness of the economy, and changes in foreign exchange rate regimes. In addition we used the Herfindahl Hirschmann Index to determine the extent of concentration in the import market for food. This allowed us to determine whether or not unusually large amounts of food items were imported from a few countries, a situation that would imply insufficient import market diversification. Preliminary results revealed that the Gross Domestic Product of countries from which Qatar imported food items is positively and significantly related to the value of food import by Qatar, suggesting that Qatar imported more food items from larger economies than from smaller countries. In addition, distance is negatively and significantly related to the value of trade, and hence Qatar imported more food items from nearby countries than from faraway countries. Both results are in conformance with economic theory underlying the gravity model. Among the remaining variables, we observed that Corruption Perception Index is positively related to the value of trade, implying that Qatar is importing more food items from less corrupt countries. Social Sciences, Arts and Humanities

Improving agricultural production in Qatar faces a number of challenges mainly related to adverse climatic conditions, quality of soils, scarcity of irrigation water, inappropriate crop rotations, market constraints and ineffective agricultural subsidies. Strategies to overcome these problems may include a) increasing domestic production in Qatar by using a combination of high-tech water-efficient field and greenhouse production systems focussed on high quality end-products to fill gaps in the supply market, and b) land purchase and contract farming of broad-acre crops in more resource-rich countries such as Australia. Qatar produces only about 8-10 percent of food consumed, yet domestic production is significantly constrained by lack of market access. In this paper, a holistic framework is developed for assessing climate, soil and market constraints, and for generating an optimized list of food crops that could be grown under output price uncertainty and severely limiting arable land and water conditions in Qatar. Components of the framework include assessing the yield potential of selected crops through simulation modelling using historical climate and soils data. In a case study using wheat as a selected crop, potential yields were simulated using soils and long-term climate data for five Australian locations. These locations are Dalby in Queensland; Trangie and Junee in New South Wales; Esperance and Jerramungup in Western Australia. An assessment has been made of the site/soil constraints to identify yield limiting factors. In addition, the module will be adapted to identify suitable locations for producing vegetable crops in Qatar. Soil and climate data from five locations in Qatar (Al Sulaiteen Agricultural and Industrial Complex site, Qatar University Farm site, Arab-Qatari Farm site, Outoriya, and Rodhat Al Faras) are being collected for this purpose. The framework will be informed by a large amount of historical data in Qatar, including crop types and yield, land and water use coefficients, food import and export data, food prices, and food preferences. Output obtained from the framework will allow Qatari investment operations in Australia and other countries to determine the best locations for wheat production. At the same time we will generate a prioritized list of profitable vegetables that can be grown in Qatar in order to improve the food security situation. The findings of this paper will contribute towards achieving the goals of our research project "Improving Food Security in Qatar: Assessing Alternative Cropping Systems Feasibility and Productivity in Variable Climates, Soil and Marketing Environments" (NPRP6-064-4-001) funded by Qatar National Research Fund (QNRF) through its National Research Priority Program.

Import-dependent arid Arab micro states such as those in the Persian Gulf are particularly vulnerable to food-security risk. Among the many remedial policy suggestions is some initiation or increase in domestic production to insulate these countries from supply disruption, import price volatility and high import prices. This paper does not address the efficacy of domestic production but notes that such production will require government intervention in the form of production subsidies to mitigate market risk. The narrow focus of this paper is to provide a conceptual model of subsidies that avoids many previous problems in established subsidy systems. The paper describes a subsidy model that makes the most use of market signals, avoids perverse incentives, and provides a structure to encourage efficiency, quality enhancement and product differentiation in agricultural products. The system is designed to be WTO compliant. The model has two components: a calculation of the true economic cost of a unit of an agricultural product and a deficit payment that is calculated to bridge the gap between true economic cost and market remuneration. The structure of the deficit payment is crucial to the establishment of a beneficial incentive system. The paper provides a mathematical rendering of the model, analysis of the associated incentive structure and a numerical example for a hypothetical Arab micro state.

Contagious bovine pleuropneumonia (CBPP) is an economically important disease in most of sub-Saharan Africa. A conjoint analysis and ordered probit regression models were used to measure the preferences of farmers for CBPP vaccine and vaccination attributes. This was with regard to inclusion or not of an indicator in the vaccine, vaccine safety, vaccine stability as well as frequency of vaccination, vaccine administration and the nature of vaccination. The analysis was carried out in 190 households in Narok District of Kenya between October and December 2006 using structured questionnaires, 16 attribute profiles and a five-point Likert scale. The factors affecting attribute valuation were shown through a two-way location interaction model. The study also demonstrated the relative importance (RI) of attributes and the compensation value of attribute levels. The attribute coefficient estimates showed that farmers prefer a vaccine that has an indicator, is 100% safe and is administered by the government (p0.0001). The preferences for the vaccine attributes were consistent with expectations. Preferences for stability, frequency of vaccination and nature of vaccination differed amongst farmers (p0.05). While inclusion of an indicator in the vaccine was the most important attribute (RI=43.6%), price was the least important (RI=0.5%). Of the 22 household factors considered, 15 affected attribute valuation. The compensation values for a change from non inclusion to inclusion of an indicator, 95-100% safety, 2h to greater than 2h stability and from compulsory to elective vaccination were positive while those for a change from annual to biannual vaccination and from government to private administration were negative. The study concluded that the farmers in Narok District had preferences for specific vaccine and vaccination attributes. These preferences were conditioned by various household characteristics and disease risk factors. On average the farmers would need to be compensated or persuaded to accept biannual and private vaccination against CBPP. There is need for consideration of farmer preferences for vaccine attribute levels during vaccine formulations and farmer preferences for vaccination attribute levels when designing delivery of vaccines.

While Ethiopia is Africa’s largest livestock producer, sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS) barriers and animal diseases have traditionally constrained market access. A system dynamics model examined the feasibility of a proposed SPS certification system under a number of scenarios. Model results indicate that the system may not be viable for beef exports to Middle Eastern markets. However, the binding constraint is high domestic input costs rather than the costs of SPS compliance. Sensitivity analyses reveal that while investments in feed efficiency and animal productivity would enhance Ethiopia’s export competitiveness, the competitive nature of international beef markets may still prevent market access.

Dual-purpose winter wheat production is an important economic enterprise in the southern Great Plains of the United States. Because of the complex interactions involved in producing wheat grain and beef gain from a single crop, stocking density is an important decision. The objective of the research is to determine the stocking density that maximizes expected net returns from dual-purpose winter wheat production. Statistical tests rejected a conventional linear-response plateau function in favor of a linear-response stochastic plateau function. The optimal stocking density of 1.48 steers per hectare (0.60 steers per acre) is 19% greater with a stochastic plateau than with a nonstochastic one.

Highlights • About two-thirds of farmers in Narok South District of Kenya were willing to pay while one-third needed compensation to accept the preferred vaccine and vaccination. • The WTP for preferred vaccine and vaccination was high but since there was high level of uncertainty, further WTP studies are needed. • Willingness to pay for preferred vaccine and vaccination attributes and for the entire profiles was influenced by various farmer demographics and household characteristics. • Vaccination against CBPP was economically worthwhile using all programmes investigated., Contagious bovine pleuropneumonia (CBPP) is an economically important trans-boundary cattle disease which affects food security and livelihoods. A conjoint analysis–contingent valuation was carried out on 190 households in Narok South District of Kenya to measure willingness to pay (WTP) and demand for CBPP vaccine and vaccination as well as factors affecting WTP. The mean WTP was calculated at Kenya Shillings (KSh) 212.48 (USD 3.03) for vaccination using a vaccine with the characteristics that were preferred by the farmers (preferred vaccine and vaccination) and KSh −71.45 (USD −1.02) for the currently used vaccine and vaccination. The proportion of farmers willing to pay an amount greater than zero was 66.7% and 34.4% for the preferred and current vaccine and vaccination respectively. About one third (33.3%) of farmers would need to be compensated an average amount of KSh 1162.62 (USD 13.68) per animal to allow their cattle to be vaccinated against CBPP using the preferred vaccine and vaccination. About two-thirds (65.6%) of farmers would need to be compensated an average amount of KSh 853.72 (USD 12.20) per animal to allow their cattle to be vaccinated against CBPP using the current vaccine and vaccination. The total amount of compensation would be KSh 61.39 million (USD 0.88 million) for the preferred vaccine and vaccination and KSh 90.15 million (USD 1.29 million) for the current vaccine and vaccination. Demand curves drawn from individual WTP demonstrated that only 59% and 27% of cattle owners with a WTP greater than zero were willing to pay a benchmark cost of KSh 34.60 for the preferred and current vaccine respectively. WTP was negatively influenced by the attitude about household economic situation (p = 0.0078), presence of cross breeds in the herd (p

Using Qatar as a case study, we exploit a novel micro dataset for 102 raw agricultural imported commodities on a shipment-by-shipment basis over the period January 1, 2005 to June 30, 2010. The data comprise over half a million individual observations, with a very rich set of characteristic specifications. Several interesting initial results emerge from the analysis. First, we find evidence of import-price volatility far in excess of world price volatility across a wide spectrum of commodities. Second, supply origins for virtually all commodities are highly concentrated. In many cases commodities are sole sourced. Third, although less so, concentration is evidenced among Qatari importing companies for certain commodities. Fourth, we notice anomalies that lead to inefficient shipping methodologies and associated increased costs. The paper concludes by providing guidance for future empirical research.

This study was conducted to determine risk efficient production strategies for crop and livestock producers who have the opportunity to produce wheat as a dual-purpose forage and grain crop. Empirical data obtained from field trials were incorporated into an integrated crop and livestock production and marketing risk programming model.

Consumer perception issues and recent microbial outbreaks in the livestock industry continue to stifle demand for specialty meats in the United States. This study was designed to explore impacts of risk perception issues on consumer choice of bison meat. A stated preference discrete choice random utility model, a joint risk perception/product choice model, and a probability of frequency method to aggregating risk scenarios, were used for a range of food safety/certification regimes. Perceived risk reduces bison consumption, but its effect declines with shifts to more regulatory control inherent in the different certification regimes.

Food safety risks and microbial outbreaks have significant health impacts on society as a whole, as well as economic loss to food processing firms. According to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control (CDC), an estimated 76 million foodborne illnesses occur each year in the United States. Of these cases, 325,000 hospitalizations and 5,000 deaths occur each year (Mead et al., 1999). The U.S. Department of Agriculture, Food Safety and Inspection Services (USDA-FSIS) (1996) estimated that approximately 4,000 deaths each year are attributed to contamination in meat and poultry products. For food processing firms, microbial outbreaks often result in significant economic losses: food recalls, lost market share, and decreased consumer confidence. The intangible nature of aggregate economic losses makes it difficult for firm managers to predict firm-level economic impacts of food safety losses and adopt effective risk mitigation strategies. Developments in Value-at-Risk (VaR) methods provide an analytical framework to resolve this problem. This report develops VaR models to predict food safety risks in turkey processing, under alternative risk mitigation strategies. The FSIS records of food recalls from 1994 to 2003 indicated that as much as $1.35 billion in losses were realized in the turkey industry. The objective of this report is to determine the firm-level risk reduction capabilities and performances of Pathogen Reduction/Hazard Analysis and Critical Control Point (PR/HACCP) systems using VaR and out-of-sample testing for robustness of findings. The VaR results suggest that characteristic turkey processing plants, on average, were losing $0.06905 per lb not more than 5% of the time in any given month in the period prior to PR/HACCP implementation. However, after PR/HACCP implementation, turkey processing plants were losing $0.04936 per lb. In the period after PR/HACCP implementation, losses incurred under generic and augmented PR/HACCP for the small turkey processing plant were not significantly different. The out-of-sample tests indicated that VaR was adequate in predicting firm-level food safety economic losses. The results of this report provide private and public policymakers with alternatives to improve PR/HACCP implementation.