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International audience; This paper presents a new power sector module, called EUTGRID, which is coupled with the long-term energy model POLES to deliver a suitable framework for considering grid aspects in energy modelling allowing for more distinct analysis of energy technology development and energy policy. It includes a mechanism of investment in transmission grids based on nodal prices together with a DC-load flow and a more detailed description of the European transmission grid. The methodology goes beyond “conventional” energy systems modelling, where the electricity grid is usually represented as a copper plate.The results show that within a climate policy scenario, the grid investment needs reach 454b$ for 2010–2080 as regions with high share of VREs require new interconnections. The role of the transmission grid in reducing variable system costs and VREs curtailment is also assessed. Delaying the investments may result in non-distributed energy and the need of more back-up carbon technologies.

International audience; Most prospective studies of the European power system rely on least-cost evaluations. This study assessed the influence of environmental impact indicators on prioritisation of ‘dispatchable’ technologies in the European energy mix up to 2050, compared with a purely cost-optimal system based on carbon tax incentives, without suppressing economic growth considerations. A model that combined the Prospective Outlook for Long-term Energy Systems model (POLES) and the European and Transmission Grid Investment and Dispatch model (EUTGRID)was used in the analysis. Combined current and prospective life cycle assessment (LCA) methodologies were added to the EUTGRID model to include environmental considerations in the decision-making process. Shifting from an economic to an environmental merit order in prioritisation increased the share of renewables by 2.65% (with variations between countries) and decreased overall emissions by 9.00%. This involved a change in grid infrastructure. Investments were found to be more important when optimisation was based on an environmental criterion on new high-voltage AC power lines, which resulted in a 1.50% increase in the overall cost of the power system. Finally, considering an environmental, instead of an economic, merit order allowed decarbonisation to be achieved slightly faster, resulting in lower cumulative greenhouse gas emissions to the atmosphere.

International audience

International audience

International audience; In this paper we demonstrate the role of electricity storage for the integration of high shares of Variable Renewable Energy Sources (VRES 3) in the long-term evolution of the power system. For this a new electricity module is developed in POLES (Prospective Outlook on Long-term Energy Systems). It now takes into account the impacts of VRES on the European power system. The power system operation relies on EUCAD (European Unit Commitment And Dispatch), which includes daily storage and other inter-temporal constraints. The innovative aspect of our work is the direct coupling between POLES and EUCAD, thus combining a long-term simulation horizon and a short-term approach for the power system operation. The storage technologies represented are pumped-hydro storage, lithium-ion batteries, adiabatic Compressed Air Energy Storage (a-CAES) and electric vehicles (charging optimisation and vehicle-to-grid). Demand response and European grid interconnections are also represented, in order to include to some extent these flexibility options. 2 Disclaimer: The views expressed are purely those of the writer and may not in any circumstances be regarded as stating an official position of the European Commission. 3 Abbreviations: a-CAES: adiabatic Compressed Air Energy Storage CCS: Carbon Capture and Storage

International audience This paper provides an overview of the AMPERE modeling comparison project with focus on the implications of near-term policies for the costs and attainability of long-term climate objectives. Nine modeling teams participated in the project to explore the consequences of global emissions following the proposed policy stringency of the national pledges from the Copenhagen Accord and Cancún Agreements to 2030. Specific features compared to earlier assessments are the explicit consideration of near-term 2030 emission targets as well as the systematic sensitivity analysis for the availability and potential of mitigation technologies. Our estimates show that a 2030 mitigation effort comparable to the pledges would result in a further "lock-in" of the energy system into fossil fuels and thus impede the required energy transformation to reach low greenhouse-gas stabilization levels (450 ppm CO2e). Major implications include significant increases in mitigation costs, increased risk that low stabilization targets become unattainable, and reduced chances of staying below the proposed temperature change target of 2 °C in case of overshoot. With respect to technologies, we find that following the pledge pathways to 2030 would narrow policy choices, and increases the risks that some currently optional technologies, such as carbon capture and storage (CCS) or the large-scale deployment of bioenergy, will become "a must" by 2030.

International audience; The paper presents a model-based approach describing the impacts of climate change on the European energy system. Existing analyses only estimate a limited range of climate impacts over a limited geographical area. Using the POLES model and the results from several climate models, the present paper quantifies the main impacts of climate change on the European energy sector, country by country, thus achieving progress in this direction. As far as energy demand is concerned, our main finding is that higher temperatures will mean that air-conditioning will consume more energy, reaching about 53 Mtoe by 2100 in a scenario with no strong emissions constraints (A1B). On the other hand less energy will be consumed for heating buildings, falling by about 65 Mtoe per year. This represents a net decrease in energy consumption of about 12 Mtoe by 2100. On the supply side, more constrained and expensive operating conditions for electric power plants will result in lower electricity generation by thermal, nuclear and hydro-power plants, with a maximum decrease of about 200 TWh in 2070 in the A1B scenario and 150 TWh in 2060 and 2080 for a low emissions scenario (E1). These effects vary a great deal across Europe and remain very dependent on the uncertainties affecting the results of the various climate models. This overall uncertainty may inhibit effective decisions. However the study offers insights not otherwise available without the full coverage of the energy system provided by POLES and climate features provided by climate models. The study identifies the main impacts of climate change in a strategic sector and provides an "order of magnitude" or "central trend" for these impacts, which might be useful in an adaptive policy of act, learn and then act again.

International audience; This paper explores various dimensions of the learning process for low-carbon technologies under different mitigation scenarios. It uses the POLES model, which addresses learning as an endogenous phenomenon with learning curves, and a set of scenarios developed as part of the AMPERE project. It represents an analytical effort to understand the learning patterns of energy technologies in various contexts and tries to disentangle the different dimensions of the relation between these patterns and the deployment process. One result is, surprisingly, that apparent learning may be slower in mitigation scenarios with accelerated technology deployment when using two-factor learning curves. Second, the R&D analysis clearly shows that reductions in R&D budgets have significant impacts on long term technology costs. Third, solar technology which is more constrained by floor costs in the model benefits more from major technological breakthroughs than wind energy. Finally, ambitious stabilization targets can be met with limited cost increases in the electricity sector, thanks to the impact of learning effects on the improvement in technology costs and performances.

International audience; This paper uses the EMF27 scenarios to explore the role of renewable energy (RE) in climate change mitigation. Currently RE supplies almost 20 % of global electricity demand. Almost all EMF27 mitigation scenarios show a strong increase in renewable power production, with a substantial ramp-up of wind and solar power deployment. In many scenarios, renewables are the most important long-term mitigation option for power supply. Wind energy is competitive even without climate policy, whereas the prospects of solar photovoltaics (PV) are highly contingent on the ambitiousness of climate policy. Bioenergy is an important and versatile energy carrier; however--with the exception of low temperature heat--there is less scope for renewables other than biomass for non-electric energy supply. Despite the important role of wind and solar power in climate change mitigation scenarios with full technology availability, limiting their deployment has a relatively small effect on mitigation costs, if nuclear and carbon capture and storage (CCS)--which can serve as substitutes in low-carbon power supply--are available. Limited bioenergy availability in combination with limited wind and solar power by contrast, results in a more substantial increase in mitigation costs. While a number of robust insights emerge, the results on renewable energy deployment levels vary considerably across the models. An in-depth analysis of a subset of EMF27 reveals substantial differences in modeling approaches and parameter assumptions. To a certain degree, differences in model results can be attributed to different assumptions about technology costs, resource potentials and systems integration.

International audience; In the wake of the Fukushima nuclear accident, countries like Germany and Japan have planned a phase-out of nuclear generation. Carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology has yet to become a commercially viable technology with little prospect of doing so without strong climate policy to spur development. The possibility of using renewable power generation from wind and solar as a non-emitting alternative to replace a nuclear phase-out or failure to deploy CCS technology is investigated using scenarios from EMF27 and the POLES model. A strong carbon price appears necessary to have significant penetration of renewables regardless of alternative generation technologies available, but especially if nuclear or CCS are absent from the energy supply system. The feasibility of replacing nuclear generation appears possible at realistic costs (evaluated as total abatement costs and final user prices to households); however for ambitious climate policies, such as a 450 ppm target, CCS could represent a critical technology that renewables will not be able to fully replace without unbearable economic costs.

The Kyoto Protocol envisage the setting-up of flexibility mechanisms allowing Annex B countries to fulfil their commitments to reducing greenhouse gases with respect for the principle of economic efficiency. The current negotiations relate in particular to the possibility of setting up a system of tradable emissions permits for Annex B countries and also of introducing “ceilings” to trade. This paper analyses the stakes and economic potential of adopting this instrument, both for those countries that made commitments in Kyoto and for developing countries. It is based on a formal approach that allows for a consistent framework of analysis. The emission permit market, is, in fact, simulated on the basis of a reference scenario and of marginal abatement cost curves and estimated by the POLES model; after analysing these marginal abatement cost curves and comparing them with those produced by other models, we explore two different configurations for a competitive market: a market limited to the Annex B countries and a world market. The results produced by the model show that widening the market to include developing countries is more effective than the Annex B market solution; it reduces the cost of implementing Kyoto for OECD countries and at the same time allows the countries of the South to benefit from selling the permits. This research also shows that introducing restrictions on exchanges for Annex B countries could have a counter-productive redistribution effect, with the ethical argument that underlies that particular measure.

The Energy Modeling Forum 28 (EMF28) performed a large-scale model comparison exercise to illustrate different technology pathways for cutting European greenhouse gas emissions by 80% by 2050. Focusing on selected countries (France, Germany, Italy, Sweden and UK), this paper first analyses climate and energy policy objectives and debates in the respective countries. It then compares EMF28 model results to the short-term projections of the National Renewable Energy Action Plans (NREAPs) and the long-term transformation pathway given in the European Commission’s “Energy Roadmap 2050”. It concludes that there is sufficient agreement with the NREAPs and national policies to accept the model results as conceivable scenarios. The scenarios suggest that in the future a variety of different national energy mixes will continue to reflect the different resource bases and preferences of individual Member States. In order to ensure a cost-efficient transformation, it is important to improve coordination between Member State policies and those at EU level.

In the last decade, a few papers have analysed the consequences of achieving the greenhouse gas concentration levels necessary to maintain global temperature increases below 2 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels. Most models and scenarios assume that future trends in global GDP will be similar to the growth experienced in the past century, which would imply multiplying current output nineteen fold in this century. However, natural resource and environmental constraints suggest that future global economic growth may not be so high. Furthermore, the environmental implications of such growth depend on how it is distributed across countries. This paper studies the implications on GHG abatement policies of different assumptions on global GDP growth and convergence levels. A partial equilibrium model (POLES) of the world´s energy system is used to provide detailed projections up to 2050 for the different regions of the world. The results suggest that while low stabilisation is technically feasible and economically viable for the world in all the scenarios considered, it is more likely to occur with more modest global growth. Convergence in living standards on the other hand places greater pressures in terms of the required reduction in emissions. In general we find that there are major differences between regions in terms of the size and the timing of abatement costs and economic impact.

International audience; In this research, we provide an overview of the climate-security nexus in the European energy sector, through a model based analysis of scenarios produced with the POLES model. The scenarios describe the consequences of different degrees of GHG emission constraint, at world level, but also for a case where Europe adopts an ambitious climate policy, while the rest of the world sticks to much more modest abatement policies. The analysis shows that under such stringent climate policies, Europe may benefit of a significant double dividend, first in its capacity to develop a new cleaner and climate-friendlier energy model, and second in a lower vulnerability to potential price or supply shocks on the international energy markets.

In this report, the third in this Series on health and climate change, we assess the changes in particle air pollution emissions and consequent effects on health that are likely to result from greenhouse-gas mitigation measures in the electricity generation sector in the European Union (EU), China, and India. We model the effect in 2030 of policies that aim to reduce total carbon dioxide (CO(2)) emissions by 50% by 2050 globally compared with the effect of emissions in 1990. We use three models: the POLES model, which identifies the distribution of production modes that give the desired CO(2) reductions and associated costs; the GAINS model, which estimates fine particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter 2.5 microm or less (PM(2.5)) concentrations; and a model to estimate the effect of PM(2.5) on mortality on the basis of the WHO's Comparative Risk Assessment methods. Changes in modes of production of electricity to reduce CO(2) emissions would, in all regions, reduce PM(2.5) and deaths caused by it, with the greatest effect in India and the smallest in the EU. Health benefits greatly offset costs of greenhouse-gas mitigation, especially in India where pollution is high and costs of mitigation are low. Our estimates are approximations but suggest clear health gains (co-benefits) through decarbonising electricity production, and provide additional information about the extent of such gains.

Based on simulations of the POLES model, this paper aims to analyse the interactions between policies to stabilize greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere and the fundamentals of the world oil market. The « carbon value » is the modelling device that reflects the relative harshness of climate policies. It represents the signal that triggers socially responsible investments addressing the climate challenge, ie greenhouse gas abatement investments. We compare a Reference energy scenario and a scenario of emission reductions by a factor four in industrialized countries by 2050. The results show that very ambitious climate policies allow both to mitigate climate change and to manage the depletion of world oil resources. JEL classification : Q58, Q41, Blanchard Odile, Criqui Patrick, Kitous Alban, Mima Silvana. The impact of climate policies on energy markets and the price of carbon. In: Revue d'économie financière (English ed.), n°83, 2006. Carbon finance. pp. 89-110.

The impact of climate policies on the carbon price and the energy markets Based on simulations of the POLES model, this paper aims to analyse the interactions between policies to stabilize greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere and the fundamentals of the world oil market. The « carbon value » is the modelling device that reflects the relative harshness of climate policies. It represents the signal that triggers socially responsible investments addressing the climate challenge, ie greenhouse gas abatement investments. We compare a Reference energy scenario and a scenario of emission reductions by a factor four in industrialized countries by 2050. The results show that very ambitious climate policies allow both to mitigate climate change and to manage the depletion of world oil resources. JEL classification : Q58, Q41, Ce papier vise à analyser les interactions entre les politiques de stabilisation des concentrations de gaz à effet de serre dans l’atmosphère et les fondamentaux de la scène pétrolière mondiale, à partir de simulations du modèle POLES. La « valeur du carbone » est l’artifice de modélisation qui synthétise l’intensité des politiques climatiques. Elle constitue le signal qui déclenche les investissements de réduction des émissions de gaz à effet de serre, investissements socialement responsables au regard du défi climatique. La comparaison d’un scénario énergétique tendanciel avec un scénario de division par quatre des émissions des pays industrialisés à l’horizon 2050 permet de montrer que la conduite de politiques climatiques très ambitieuses permet à la fois de limiter le changement climatique et de gérer la question de l’épuisement des ressources mondiales d’hydrocarbures. Classification JEL : Q58, Q41, Blanchard Odile, Criqui Patrick, Kitous Alban, Mima Silvana. Impact des politiques climatiques sur le prix du carbone et les marchés de l’énergie . In: Revue d'économie financière, n°83, 2006. La finance carbone. pp. 91-113.

Technology consortia are becoming one of the most usual organisational forms selected by high-technology firms to develop their innovations. The factors explaining that success, as well as the rationale for such co-operation schemes are recalled by Baumol [6]. While economists used to highlight mainly the dimension of sharing the financial burden of high-cost innovations within a group of firms, Baumol focuses on the complementary dimension3 of technical change particularly along vertical relationships in industries characterised by rapidly evolving technologies. Following this idea, Baumol adds the following empirical and theoretical result: “Firms that pool their innovation gain a competitive advantage over firms that depend only on their own R&D resources. The resulting competitive handicap to non participants in a technology consortium can grow cumulatively as time passes” [6]. The identification of such a dynamic trend between world wide competing firms, and also between competing nations is an important issue in order to better understand the innovation race between actors, and possibly to reorient public policies at national and regional levels. But this evolution is simultaneously generating new difficulties, such as the allocation of intellectual property rights between increasing number of stakeholders in the more collective innovation process.

New technological options generally represent solutions to new requirements or constraints. While the solutions in the framework of existing technologies are generally expensive, clean technologies are often considered as best alternatives for meeting sustainable development targets [24]. Nevertheless new technologies have to compete with the existing ones, whose environmental performances appear unsatisfactory today but may improve, sometimes significantly, in the future. Thus new technological options involve significant risks and costs but also anticipations of future opportunities and profits that play a central role in the decisions to involve in new development.

The paper analyses the probable position of major continental infrastructures for gas trade within Asia in relation to the liquefied natural gas (LNG) projects which are foreseen as advantageous in the future for supplying energy to the Asian markets. Siberia and countries of the Caspian Basin and Central Asia are becoming steadily more reliable as potential export sources of gas supplies in Asia. However, in the light of the competition from the Middle East and Southeast Asia, LNG poses a range of economic, institutional and geopolitical restrictions on the development of continental gas pipeline projects. These projects need major investments that require an association of international investors; however, such investors will not involve themselves in such projects without major changes to the institutions and economic structures of Russia and the Central Asian Republics.

http://www.worldscientific.com/doi/pdfplus/10.1142/S2010007813400046; International audience; Energy efficiency and decarbonization are important elements of climate change mitigation. We draw on European mitigation scenarios from the EMF28 modeling exercise to decompose economy-wide and sectoral emissions into their main components. We utilize the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) to gain insights into five effects : affluence, energy intensity, carbon intensity, conversion efficiency, and structural change. Economy-wide analysis suggests that energy efficiency improvements (including end-use efficiency of production and structural change of the economy) determine emission reductions short to medium term while decarbonization becomes more important in the long term. Sectoral analysis suggests that electricity generation holds the largest potential for decarbonization. Mitigation in the transport and energy-intensive sectors is limited by technology availability, forcing output and energy inputs to decline to meet the given mitigation pathways. We conclude that energy efficiency improvements could bridge the time until carbon-free technologies mature, while their quick development remains essential.

Although our knowledge of climate change impacts on energy systems has increased substantially over the past few decades, there remains a lack of comprehensive overview of impacts across spatial scales. Here, we analyse results of 220 studies projecting climate impacts on energy systems globally and at the regional scale. Globally, a potential increase in cooling demand and decrease in heating demand can be anticipated, in contrast to slight decreases in hydropower and thermal energy capacity. Impacts at the regional scale are more mixed and relatively uncertain across regions, but strongest impacts are reported for South Asia and Latin America. Our assessment shows that climate impacts on energy systems at regional and global scales are uncertain due partly to the wide range of methods and non-harmonized datasets used. For a comprehensive assessment of climate impacts on energy, we propose a consistent multi-model assessment framework to support regional-to-global-scale energy planning.

The problems linked to global warming imply the reduction of anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases. There are three pillars for decarbonizing energy systems, including the use of renewable energy. These are often assimilated to the electrical energy produced by the sun, wind, hydraulics or biomass. However, this electrical energy does not allow a deep decarbonization of all consumption sectors. The use of gas produced from these renewable energies and called "green gas" can overcome this by substituting fossil gas. The study of the penetration of these "renewable gases" is the subject of this thesis. To analyse the contribution of green gas to the decarbonization of energy sectors, the work carried out uses the long-term prospective model POLES (Prospective Outlook on Long-term Energy Systems). A module was created in the model to include a detailed representation of the green gas production system, linking resources to uses. The technologies of anaerobic digestion, gasification of biomass and the transformation of electricity into gas called power-to-gas have been modelled and their contributions in the energy consumption of consumption sectors estimated. The results show that renewable gas technologies play a role in the energy transition by doubling the production of fossil gas in the second half of the XXIst century. This gas allows the decarbonisation of the transport, industry and agriculture sectors. Nevertheless, the deployment of technologies is directly linked to the technical progress expected in the future because, at present, these technologies are for the majority too expensive to be competitive with the use of natural gas without carbon tax. In addition, development stems from the availability of local potential in terms of the biomass resources mobilized. Development trajectories are therefore quite different depending on local contexts, both in terms of resource availability and in terms of the political incentives to promote the deployment of green gases., Les problématiques liées au réchauffement climatique impliquent de devoir diminuer les émissions anthropogéniques de gaz à effet de serre. Il existe trois piliers de décarbonation des systèmes énergétiques parmi lesquels l’utilisation des énergies renouvelables. Ces dernières sont souvent assimilées à de l’énergie électrique produite par le soleil, le vent, l’hydraulique ou la biomasse. Néanmoins, cette énergie électrique ne permet pas une décarbonation profonde de tous les secteurs de consommation dont l’électrification est difficile. L’utilisation de gaz produit à partir de ces énergies décarbonées et appelé « gaz vert » peut palier cela en diminuant l’usage du gaz fossile. L’étude de la pénétration de ces « gaz renouvelables » est l’objet de cette thèse. Pour analyser l’apport du gaz vert sur la décarbonation des secteurs énergétiques, le travail mené utilise le modèle de prospective long terme POLES (Prospective Outlook on Long-term Energy Systems). Afin de représenter de manière détaillée le système de production de gaz vert, nous avons créé un module dans ce modèle, liant les ressources aux usages. Ainsi, les technologies de méthanisation, gazéification de la biomasse et la transformation d’électricité en gaz appelé power-to-gaz ont été modélisées et leurs contributions dans la consommation énergétique des secteurs de consommation estimées. Les résultats montrent que les technologies de gaz renouvelables jouent un rôle dans la transition énergétique en permettant de doubler la production de gaz fossile dans la seconde partie du XXIème siècle. Ce gaz permet la décarbonation des secteurs du transport, de l’industrie et de la production électrique. Néanmoins, le déploiement de ces technologies est directement lié aux progrès techniques attendus à l’avenir car ces technologies sont pour la majorité trop chères pour être compétitives face à l’utilisation du gaz naturel à l’heure actuelle. De plus, ce développement découle de la disponibilité de potentiels locaux au niveau des ressources de biomasse mobilisées. Ainsi, les trajectoires de développement sont différentes, région par région, en fonction du contexte local, tant au niveau de la ressource disponible que des incitations et programmes politiques mis en place pour promouvoir le déploiement des gaz verts.